ATL - Free Italy - Italy sides with Wallies in WW2

Oh right, it seem that ITTL France will take the place of Italy as part of the Axis even if Marine Nationale has been already gutted between Dakar, Mars el Kebir and Toulon and frankly after the war there will be a lot of internal discussion and payback.
In any invasion of Italy, with the Navy in bad shape, the French contribution will be limited as any invasion must past the Alps and the fortification line there and even before thinking to launch an attack you need to start to prepare the troops for the terrain...better remember that the italian had a lot of people wounded by frostbite due to the lack of proper equipement and the invasion started in Summer now is Winter.
Also Jugoslavia seem has been rallied and bribed enough to join the invasion, unfortunely they are an order of magnitude less prepared for an offensive war than Italy and i don't even start with the internal division.

VEIII seem having grow a pair (almost ASB) and try to keep things quiet and as before, limiting to repel the racial law and honestly with the OVRA involved i expect that anyone that will be contacted by the Germans will have a quiet incident 4 or 5 minutes later (unlike the rest of the fascist apparatus they were pretty efficient).

For the UK, even if they really don't know, things have gone better than OTL, no campaign in Africa for now and the Mediterrean is relatively open so there are more resources to both fight the battle of Britain and the battle of Atlantic, this can also mean a less one sided 'Destroyers for bases deal' and 'Tizard Mission'
I doubt that the "destroyers for bases" deal could be changed too much. The USN isn't going to give up its modern ships. Nor was the deal that bad, it wasn't like the British Empire gave up much for them. All it gave is land in the various colonies to build bases at US expense, using US troops to man them and having US troops spend US dollars in their colonies. The deal made British colonies more secure, gave GB much needed US dollars, and gave them 50 obsolete destroyers to boot. The destroyers were used to the end of the war except for the ones that were sunk or too damaged to repair. I count at least 15 of them being used at least a short time post war. Destroyer for bases

The Tizard Mission was a different matter and I agree the Brits were totally ripped of there.
 
A few thoughts

1) Like everyone else I think that the Italians should be doing better in Northern Italy. I do think it is possible for them to do this poorly, it isn't impossible, just unlikely. Unless you retcon it I would put very poor commanders in charge, ones that got their position merely because of their loyalty to Mussolini not their competence. An excuse for that is that they never expected a Yugoslav attack.

2) Italy should be getting Lend-Lease and should have been getting it the moment they were attacked by France and Germany. The US might ship say 50 M2A2s and maybe all 18 M2 Mediums (not the M2A1s) leaving the rest for training. They are crappy tanks but they are still better than the L3/33. Since the US was producing tanks faster than they could train men it might be doable. They would simply be using more M3 Lees and Stuarts for training.

They would be getting P-39s and P-40s in shipments, which is better than anything Italy had and maybe some artillery, AT and AA guns as well.

3) I don't see why FDR wouldn't still go Europe First. Yes, it is going better but not THAT much better. Germany is still the main threat. The Pacific Theater is going better for the Brits at least and that makes it better for the US in the long run.

4) Post War Italy is doing much better and France is doing much worse. If the UN isn't butterflied away Italy instead of France is a permanent member. Americans tend to see the French not only as "cheese eating surrender monkeys" but "treacherous cheese eating surrender monkeys" after the war. Italy will take the French colonies after the war. There will be no Franco-Vietnamese War although there may well be an Italian-Japanese War. If there is an "Algerian Crisis" it will be an Italian and not a French problem.
 
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4) Post War Italy is doing much better and France is doing much worse. If the UN isn't butterflied away Italy instead of France is a permanent member. Americans tend to see the French not only as "cheese eating surrender monkeys" but "treacherous cheese eating surrender monkeys" after the war. Italy will take the French colonies after the war. There will be no Franco-Vietnamese War although there may well be an Italian-Japanese War. If there is an "Algerian Crisis" it will be an Italian and not a French problem.
Considering the Italian population, irredentism and political party( maybe mussolini is replaced by balbo on kings order? or couped to avoid joining axis side of the war), Italy might get in the war:
  • Tunis, it has ben unofficially claimed long before the french and has an actual Italian community there.
  • Corsica,Nice,Savoy given to France after the second risorgimento war despite the french betrayal at Villa Franca.
  • All the dalmatian coast, Slovenia and Montenegro If Jugoslavia is in the axis. it might be also forced to give Macedonia to Bulgaria in order to have a common border (Albania-macedonia)with he Bulgarians and protect them better from soviet influence. considering the tensions i can see also a population exchange.
  • Djibouti+ British Somalia, so Italy completes his golden horn colony. If i remember well the brits were already offering it to italy on the condition to remain neutral.
  • maybe Malta? on condition of free stationing for the British.
i think thats already too much for Italy. If Mussolini stays in power, almost everything will be lost except the stuff on italian continent. If balbo or Ciano take control, at most the golden horn will be decolonized eventually but Libya and Tunisia will be assimilated.

If balbo is in power Italy will heavily send help to Chang Kai S(r)hek. maybe even convincing the rest of the ONU to do so. the Italian air force will be one of the best in the world. Italy will join Nato without much problems due to public relations.
 
Hello @Johnrankins ! thank you for your remarks, I try to answer to some
A few thoughts

1) Like everyone else I think that the Italians should be doing better in Northern Italy. I do think it is possible for them to do this poorly, it isn't impossible, just unlikely. Unless you retcon it I would put very poor commanders in charge, ones that got their position merely because of their loyalty to Mussolini not their competence. An excuse for that is that they never expected a Yugoslav attack.

Yep, indeed there's some plot armor towards the Germans here. The leadership is still abysmal and frankly speaking besides Messe (Duke of Aosta maybe...) we didn't have any valiant high commanders in WW2 for the very same motivation you've expressed above (capability to suck up to the Duce vs actual military proficiency was the gold standard for promotions). Still, the triple threat attack has thwarted large part of the Defensive Plan and France is bogging troops in the Western Alps. The terrain was favourable for defense in the Eastern Alps, but the complete sneak attack from Yugoslav forces and the unpreparedness of Grossi were the recipes of the disaster in Trieste. In Sudtirol, instead, the high ground, morale and effective defensive barrages have stalled the Germans that have just obtained a minor breakthrough with the Gadertal action. The arrival of ANZAC troops, and possibly, some token Polish and Free French forces in the next months, is godsend to allow the Italians to re-organize ranks. Moreover, morale is shattered, Umberto has been captured and in few days the Germans will announce that they've Mussolini...

2) Italy should be getting Lend-Lease and should have been getting it the moment they were attacked by France and Germany. The US might ship say 50 M2A2s and maybe all 18 M2 Mediums (not the M2A1s) leaving the rest for training. They are crappy tanks but they are still better than the L3/33. Since the US was producing tanks faster than they could train men it might be doable. They would simply be using more M3 Lees and Stuarts for training.

They would be getting P-39s and P-40s in shipments, which is better than anything Italy had and maybe some artillery, AT and AA guns as well.

Yep, please consider that the Italians at the moment field the carro medio P.40 Carro P.40 , an equivalent of M4 Sherman, in the African Theatre. I can foresee a large American contribution in terms of equipment and resources (oil, coal and grain).

3) I don't see why FDR wouldn't still go Europe First. Yes, it is going better but not THAT much better. Germany is still the main threat. The Pacific Theater is going better for the Brits at least and that makes it better for the US in the long run.

It's something that came out of my mind to avoid the Americans doing the heavy lifting in Europe and give the Italians and the Brits some spotlight. Then, you'll have to also consider that Germany was also seen at that moment as the bulwark against Communism and that the chance that the Commonwealth would collapse may only help the U.S. in the long term. They sit out, temporarily, to wipe out the Japanese and then come back to take the spoils against Axis and European Empires.

4) Post War Italy is doing much better and France is doing much worse. If the UN isn't butterflied away Italy instead of France is a permanent member. Americans tend to see the French not only as "cheese eating surrender monkeys" but "treacherous cheese eating surrender monkeys" after the war. Italy will take the French colonies after the war. There will be no Franco-Vietnamese War although there may well be an Italian-Japanese War. If there is an "Algerian Crisis" it will be an Italian and not a French problem.

It's something that I don't want to spoiler out but France will get some heavy bashing and Italy will face decades of guerrillas in Africa post WW2...
 
Considering the Italian population, irredentism and political party( maybe mussolini is replaced by balbo on kings order? or couped to avoid joining axis side of the war), Italy might get in the war:
  • Tunis, it has ben unofficially claimed long before the french and has an actual Italian community there.
  • Corsica,Nice,Savoy given to France after the second risorgimento war despite the french betrayal at Villa Franca.
  • All the dalmatian coast, Slovenia and Montenegro If Jugoslavia is in the axis. it might be also forced to give Macedonia to Bulgaria in order to have a common border (Albania-macedonia)with he Bulgarians and protect them better from soviet influence. considering the tensions i can see also a population exchange.
  • Djibouti+ British Somalia, so Italy completes his golden horn colony. If i remember well the brits were already offering it to italy on the condition to remain neutral.
  • maybe Malta? on condition of free stationing for the British.
i think thats already too much for Italy. If Mussolini stays in power, almost everything will be lost except the stuff on italian continent. If balbo or Ciano take control, at most the golden horn will be decolonized eventually but Libya and Tunisia will be assimilated.

If balbo is in power Italy will heavily send help to Chang Kai S(r)hek. maybe even convincing the rest of the ONU to do so. the Italian air force will be one of the best in the world. Italy will join Nato without much problems due to public relations.

I don't want to spoiler, but Corsica and Lybia are already metropolitan territory from January 1942 and 1939, Djibouti has been annexed and the objectives are clear in mind to the Italian leadership: Tunisia and Dalmatia as metropolitan annexions, maybe some French colonies somewhere around the world (Lebanon?), puppet governments in Croatia, Serbia, Montenegro, Albania, Greece and a word on Palestine affairs.
 

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I don't want to spoiler, but Corsica and Lybia are already metropolitan territory from January 1942 and 1939, Djibouti has been annexed and the objectives are clear in mind to the Italian leadership: Tunisia and Dalmatia as metropolitan annexions, maybe some French colonies somewhere around the world (Lebanon?), puppet governments in Croatia, Serbia, Montenegro, Albania, Greece and a word on Palestine affairs.
with Balbo i think Greece might avoid being a puppet but rather under Italian influence like Bulgaria
 
Considering the Italian population, irredentism and political party( maybe mussolini is replaced by balbo on kings order? or couped to avoid joining axis side of the war), Italy might get in the war:
  • Tunis, it has ben unofficially claimed long before the french and has an actual Italian community there.
  • Corsica,Nice,Savoy given to France after the second risorgimento war despite the french betrayal at Villa Franca.
  • All the dalmatian coast, Slovenia and Montenegro If Jugoslavia is in the axis. it might be also forced to give Macedonia to Bulgaria in order to have a common border (Albania-macedonia)with he Bulgarians and protect them better from soviet influence. considering the tensions i can see also a population exchange.
  • Djibouti+ British Somalia, so Italy completes his golden horn colony. If i remember well the brits were already offering it to italy on the condition to remain neutral.
  • maybe Malta? on condition of free stationing for the British.
i think thats already too much for Italy. If Mussolini stays in power, almost everything will be lost except the stuff on italian continent. If balbo or Ciano take control, at most the golden horn will be decolonized eventually but Libya and Tunisia will be assimilated.

If balbo is in power Italy will heavily send help to Chang Kai S(r)hek. maybe even convincing the rest of the ONU to do so. the Italian air force will be one of the best in the world. Italy will join Nato without much problems due to public relations.
No chance of Malta , more likely it actually becomes part of the UK as nearly happened OTL. Same real politick with British Somalia, it was offered OTL but OTL France was not on the losing side so Italy was not getting Djibouti. With all the other possible Italian gains off the Axis it would be ASB for them also to gain off the victors as well.
 
Considering the Italian population, irredentism and political party( maybe mussolini is replaced by balbo on kings order? or couped to avoid joining axis side of the war), Italy might get in the war:
  • Tunis, it has ben unofficially claimed long before the french and has an actual Italian community there.
  • Corsica,Nice,Savoy given to France after the second risorgimento war despite the french betrayal at Villa Franca.
  • All the dalmatian coast, Slovenia and Montenegro If Jugoslavia is in the axis. it might be also forced to give Macedonia to Bulgaria in order to have a common border (Albania-macedonia)with he Bulgarians and protect them better from soviet influence. considering the tensions i can see also a population exchange.
  • Djibouti+ British Somalia, so Italy completes his golden horn colony. If i remember well the brits were already offering it to italy on the condition to remain neutral.
  • maybe Malta? on condition of free stationing for the British.
i think thats already too much for Italy. If Mussolini stays in power, almost everything will be lost except the stuff on italian continent. If balbo or Ciano take control, at most the golden horn will be decolonized eventually but Libya and Tunisia will be assimilated.

If balbo is in power Italy will heavily send help to Chang Kai S(r)hek. maybe even convincing the rest of the ONU to do so. the Italian air force will be one of the best in the world. Italy will join Nato without much problems due to public relations.
Tunis, Corsica, Nice and Savoy I can see The rest, with the possible exception of parts of Yugoslavia, no. The Brits certainly won't give up part of their empire.
 
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While Italy will have a long list of things that want, well...realistically she will get a lot less for a lot of reason, the big two (USA and URSS) not being very keen on big european colonial empire, the United Kingdom not wanting a rival expanding too much and more importantly the fact that money will be very very scarce, there were need for reconstrution and infinite war to absorb and quell rebellion in some colony that waste money we don't have will be a big no no, especially with Abyssinia being a moneypit for this precise reason as even in 41 there were a strong rebellion in many zone.
Not considering that Benny is out and with him a lot of the fascist diehard and at the moment Italy want to present herself as a returned democracy, frankly is very probable that a lot of the French colonies will become like OTL Somalia, UN Trusteships with a certain date to make her independent.

On the colonial side, the only real objective will be Tunisia, there is already a strong italian presence and the moment it will become a colony i image a big flux of italian emigrant reach it and even in that case, more than colony it will be considered a protectorate with a lot of local autonomy, probably some other bit like the mentioned Djibouti and some part of CHad to add to Libya.

In Europe things will be very different, Corsica has already been annexed and Nice in case of victory will be on top of the request while Savoy is not a given due to the fact that frankly in the region there were never been a lot of italian and has always been more french .
On the Jugoslavian side, well the more probable thing is a division like OTL WWII during the italian/german occupation but i doubt that Greece will be touched, that nation has always been on the Briths sphere
 
Hello @Johnrankins ! thank you for your remarks, I try to answer to some


Yep, indeed there's some plot armor towards the Germans here. The leadership is still abysmal and frankly speaking besides Messe (Duke of Aosta maybe...) we didn't have any valiant high commanders in WW2 for the very same motivation you've expressed above (capability to suck up to the Duce vs actual military proficiency was the gold standard for promotions). Still, the triple threat attack has thwarted large part of the Defensive Plan and France is bogging troops in the Western Alps. The terrain was favourable for defense in the Eastern Alps, but the complete sneak attack from Yugoslav forces and the unpreparedness of Grossi were the recipes of the disaster in Trieste. In Sudtirol, instead, the high ground, morale and effective defensive barrages have stalled the Germans that have just obtained a minor breakthrough with the Gadertal action. The arrival of ANZAC troops, and possibly, some token Polish and Free French forces in the next months, is godsend to allow the Italians to re-organize ranks. Moreover, morale is shattered, Umberto has been captured and in few days the Germans will announce that they've Mussolini...



Yep, please consider that the Italians at the moment field the carro medio P.40 Carro P.40 , an equivalent of M4 Sherman, in the African Theatre. I can foresee a large American contribution in terms of equipment and resources (oil, coal and grain).
The Sherman is considerably better than the P40. It had thicker armor, a better gun, was more reliable and had better ergonomics. It was more comparable to an M3 Lee, the P40 had a better layout and thicker armor but the Lee considerably more reliable. I think the Italians would go mainly for the Lee as it had one huge advantage for them. With Lend-lease it was effectively free.
 
The Sherman is considerably better than the P40. It had thicker armor, a better gun, was more reliable and had better ergonomics. It was more comparable to an M3 Lee, the P40 had a better layout and thicker armor but the Lee considerably more reliable. I think the Italians would go mainly for the Lee as it had one huge advantage for them. With Lend-lease it was effectively free.

Plus the italian factories were notorious slow to produce material, as the various equipment was very long to produce (ehy so you can bill more hours to Regio Esercito and co.)
 
The Sherman is considerably better than the P40. It had thicker armor, a better gun, was more reliable and had better ergonomics. It was more comparable to an M3 Lee, the P40 had a better layout and thicker armor but the Lee considerably more reliable.
Hello,

Have caught up with the story here. So far, it is interesting reading and I find the notion of Italy joining the British but finding itself in tough situations with the Germans and the French more plausible and more interesting in orderto make the story worthwhile reading.

I'll be watching closely to see what happens with the leadership of the Regia Aeronautica after the Mussolini Affair. Are the Italians receiving material help from the British such as tanks (almost any British tank will be an improvement) and light machine guns (Italian LMGs were said to be sub par)? Also, are the Italians still able to produce engines for their Macchi C.202 Folgore fighter aircraft?
 
Hello,



I'll be watching closely to see what happens with the leadership of the Regia Aeronautica after the Mussolini Affair. Are the Italians receiving material help from the British such as tanks (almost any British tank will be an improvement) and light machine guns (Italian LMGs were said to be sub par)? Also, are the Italians still able to produce engines for their Macchi C.202 Folgore fighter aircraft?
It will probably be different C.202/Re.2001 aircraft with RR, H-S or Packard engines, something else that will probably happen is that the large UK & French aircraft orders that were made OTL will actually be delivered
 
Hello ! Just to remind you that this TL is not dead. Unfortunately at the moment I haven't any update for you but for the ones who are interested on a quick summary, you may check out the video content on my YouTube channel.

At the moment I've covered the first 2 installments and I hope to upload the next on the channel during the weekend. An update is expected to be given here within the week !

here's the link of the videos !



Stay tuned !

Piave92
 
Hello guys, unfortunately I went through a very hard period and I didn't have time to proceed as promised.

Luckily now, since i'm now single, I've plenty more time to devote to this ! Stay tuned!

Piave92
 
Update - Full TL - EDITED ! in attach
Hello !

I used the past few days to catch up with the TL and to review some passages. Since it would be painstaking to edit all the previous chapters, I made a PDF document (in attach)

I hope to have the time to re-do the previous parts with threadmarks and so on and so forth, but given the will to continue in updating the TL I prioritized writing new stuff than fixing the old one.

Which would be your preferred next chapter ? I give you a couple of options below:

- Benny meets Adolf
- Wet and bloody Pacific
- The Fox Hunt
- Oh no, I did it again ! and other Balkan amenities

Yours,
Piave92
 

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pls don't ban me

Monthly Donor
Hello !

I used the past few days to catch up with the TL and to review some passages. Since it would be painstaking to edit all the previous chapters, I made a PDF document (in attach)

I hope to have the time to re-do the previous parts with threadmarks and so on and so forth, but given the will to continue in updating the TL I prioritized writing new stuff than fixing the old one.

Which would be your preferred next chapter ? I give you a couple of options below:

- Benny meets Adolf
- Wet and bloody Pacific
- The Fox Hunt
- Oh no, I did it again ! and other Balkan amenities

Yours,
Piave92
as a bulgarian, i'll vote for the balkans chapter, it never get's boring to read stuff about the place where battle royal was born
 
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Perhaps I missed it, but a consideration with a more pro Axis France than OTL, is relevation of the Enigma machines vulnerability. In 1940 France had progressed as far as Britain in reading the Enigma decrypts, they also had all the escaped Polish cryptographers. OTL Petains government concealed what they knew of the Enigma machine, and kept the Poles along with their French cryptographers at work reading what they could of German radio traffic. In early 1943 the Poles fled, some reaching Spain & then the UK, a few others hid in France.

If Petain orders the Deuxime Beureau to share its knowledge of breaking the Enigma system, then it is possible the Brits are shut out of German radio signals for the rest of the war. That has some knock on effects.

Edit: Petain may not be the decision maker in this. Even if there is no policy of sharing important intel with the Germans a profacist French intelligence officer may leak the facts to the Abwehr.
 
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