ATL - Free Italy - Italy sides with Wallies in WW2

[Piave92]

Perhaps I missed it, but a consideration with a more pro Axis France than OTL, is relevation of the Enigma machines vulnerability. In 1940 France had progressed as far as Britain in reading the Enigma decrypts, they also had all the escaped Polish cryptographers. OTL Petains government concealed what they knew of the Enigma machine, and kept the Poles along with their French cryptographers at work reading what they could of German radio traffic. In early 1943 the Poles fled, some reaching Spain & then the UK, a few others hid in France.

If Petain orders the Deuxime Beureau to share its knowledge of breaking the Enigma system, then it is possible the Brits are shut out of German radio signals for the rest of the war. That has some knock on effects.

Edit: Petain may not be the decision maker in this. Even if there is no policy of sharing important intel with the Germans a profacist French intelligence officer may leak the facts to the Abwehr.

Hello @Carl Schwamberger, this was something I wasn't aware of.

This is a big butterfly that I didn't considered, though the impact may be lesser than expected due to the sheer superiority of the Italo-British alliance in terms of both air and naval power in the Mediterranean theatre (the main one for this TL).

Since no one had voted besides @pls don't ban me the next chapter will be on the Balkans (expect meaningful deviations from TL...)

 

[pls don't ban me]

Hello @Carl Schwamberger, this was something I wasn't aware of.

This is a big butterfly that I didn't considered, though the impact may be lesser than expected due to the sheer superiority of the Italo-British alliance in terms of both air and naval power in the Mediterranean theatre (the main one for this TL).

Since no one had voted besides @pls don't ban me the next chapter will be on the Balkans (expect meaningful deviations from TL...)

i think no one else voted because the tl has been a bit dead for some time ahhahahaha

 

[Anarch King of Dipsodes]

The new government, thanks to the diplomatic effort and as a recognition of the formal joining in war against the British Empire, was allowed by the Germans to return to Paris.

(Emphasis added by me.)

That was not going to happen, not ever. The whole point of Pétain's regime was for France to be out of the war. Pétain blamed the Third Republic leaders for France following Britain into a war which they could not win, France would take great losses, and France could gain nothing. He would never shackle France to Germany for a new war with the same conditions. And in any case, the severe drubbing France had taken in 1940 made the French very wary of any new military adventures. Sending armies to die in the snows of Russia? Napoleon tried it, and every Frenchman knew how that ended. Better they should stay PoWs.

OTL, Vichy was far from consistently pro-German. Vichy counter-intelligence monitored German covert activities, and arrested many German agents. Some were even executed.

And one thing you probably don't know: the break of the German Enigma cipher system in 1940 was a joint British-French-Polish operation (the Polish team had escaped to France). Pétain took over the entire French state, including the intelligence service. The spooks (almost certainly without Pétain's knowledge) kept the Poles at work breaking German signals - in unoccupied France, until after TORCH. So if Vichy France joins the Axis, then the Germans learn that Enigma is broken, which eliminates ULTRA. (Unless the spooks withhold the information, which would be explicitly pro-Allies, and therefore treason.)

 

[Anarch King of Dipsodes]

Perhaps I missed it, but a consideration with a more pro Axis France than OTL, is relevation of the Enigma machines vulnerability. In 1940 France had progressed as far as Britain in reading the Enigma decrypts, they also had all the escaped Polish cryptographers. OTL Petains government concealed what they knew of the Enigma machine, and kept the Poles along with their French cryptographers at work reading what they could of German radio traffic. In early 1943 the Poles fled, some reaching Spain & then the UK, a few others hid in France.

The Polish team were working at Uzes in unoccupied France. When after TORCH, the Germans occupied the rest of France (ANTON), the Poles fled, and some were captured by the Gestapo. Fortunately, the Germans had no idea who they were, and they kept silent. At least a few were released and later made their way to Britain.

If Petain orders the Deuxime Beureau to share its knowledge of breaking the Enigma system, then it is possible the Brits are shut out of German radio signals for the rest of the war.

More than possible. Gordon Welchman was one of the most important anti-Enigma theoreticians at Bletchley Park. He supervised the development of the electro-mechanical "bombes" used by the Allies to discover Enigma keys. In his 1982 memoir The Hut Six Story, Welchman noted that if the Germans had ever done a proper critical evaluation of Enigma and their procedures, they would have discovered nearly all of the vulnerabilities the Allies exploited, and could have made Enigma impregnable.

BTW, the US was a full partner in ULTRA from 1942 on. Many US personnel worked at Bletchley Park, and the US built and operated several dozen bombes.

That has some knock on effects.

That's putting it mildly.

Edit: Petain may not be the decision maker in this. Even if there is no policy of sharing important intel with the Germans a profacist French intelligence officer may leak the facts to the Abwehr.

I am sure that none of the top Vichy leaders (Pétain, Laval, Darlan) ever knew about the codebreaking (or at least, never knew enough to tell the Germans the real story). However: if France is formally at war with Britain, then withholding the Enigma secret endangers French forces which are operating with the Germans. For instance, if the Admiralty uses ULTRA to maneuver convoys around U-boat wolfpacks (as they did in late 1941), then more planes, fuel, and bombs reach Britain for the RAF to use against French targets. Or ULTRA might reveal a planned rendezvous of German and French ships.

And that would be somewhere the spooks wouldn't go.

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

I've long felt that if Petain or some other French leader had led to a Axis alliance France would have flown apart more rapidly from political fundamentals.

From July 1941 the Communists and left in general were moving to resistance. The Germanophobes were not a trivial group. OTL many split from the legitimate government out of their hatred or annoyance with 'Germans'. & then those perceptive enough would see a German aligned government as a worse course for France. There were others who would go one way or the other sooner & more forcefully. The borderline civil war that slowly developed 1942-1944 would develop faster & fracture France more deeply. In this case when the French police & GESTAPO arrive to collect the French decryption operation they may very well find the Poles & others fled & the equipments/documents destroyed. Perhaps not. If I were gaming this a automatic revelation to the German player would not be assumed. Dice would be rolled.

& yes the nazis made a sorry mess of their intelligence operations, including misunderstanding the value and use of the Enigma machines. Its even vaguely possible the evidence is obtained from the French and they misinterpret that & only continue with weak half actions to improve the Efficiency of the Enigma system, rather than radical & effective changes. So there might be a sort of sliding scale in outcomes for this 'French factor' in the Engman equation.

Gordon Welchman was one of the most important anti-Enigma theoreticians at Bletchley Park. He supervised the development of the electro-mechanical "bombes" used by the Allies to discover Enigma keys.

Great remark. Turings fame has obscured much of what else happened, even to the point of overshadowing the early & critical Polish contribution. This does Turing a disservice as much as the others.

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

This is a big butterfly that I didn't considered, though the impact may be lesser than expected due to the sheer superiority of the Italo-British alliance in terms of both air and naval power in the Mediterranean theatre (the main one for this TL).

At the tactical and operational levels you have a point. But. One of the lesser understood aspects was the decryption of the radio traffic to and from OKW. That gave insight directly into the thinking of Hitler, his staff, and other senior leaders. One of the more critical items there was the use of Enigma decrypts of this OKW traffic for analysis of the results and shaping their future Deception operations. The Deception Committee had a high priority for Enigma decrypts & turned those into a feedback look in running the many deception ops. Once they understood the thinking, misapprehensions, and prejudices of Hitler & Co they could reinforce those and better lead them down the rabbit trail. This led to the neglect of other intelligence sources and poor development or adaptation of intelligence service as the war evolved. The strategic effects were profound and a loss of theEnigma or ULTRA system would be serious in strategic terms.

 

[marathag]

Edit: Petain may not be the decision maker in this. Even if there is no policy of sharing important intel with the Germans a profacist French intelligence officer may leak the facts to the Abwehr.

At which Canaris puts the report in the Circular File

 

[Athelstane]

.I've long felt that if Petain or some other French leader had led to a Axis alliance France would have flown apart more rapidly from political fundamentals.

Probably.

But I think context matters, too. In 1941 it was obvious that if Allied victory was not yet in sight, German victory looked less assured, too. Britain was clearly staying in the fight, and even showing gowing strength. Better yet, Hitler had managed to add the two greatest powers to the list of his enemies. Reading Resistance and other French literature of the time is striking in taking notice of these developments. In short, it was easier to move to resistance, and recruit fence sitters to resistance, when the cause of resistance began wearing a more hopeful aspect.

Whereas in a scenario where Britain either sued for peace, or is badly on the backfoot; or indeed where Hitler does not invade the USSR (given Moscow's control of the PCF), that dynamic probably changes somewhat.

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

At which Canaris puts the report in the Circular File

Best case scenario.

But, if the Gestapo catches it....

 

[Piave92]

Hello, sorry for necroing.

I'm going to rehaul the whole timeline in a redux thread soon. It will include several of the remarks all of you provided!

Stay tuned!

 

[TimTurner]

Hello, sorry for necroing.

I'm going to rehaul the whole timeline in a redux thread soon. It will include several of the remarks all of you provided!

Stay tuned!

Best of luck! Thank you for everything, and thank you for your hard work.