AHC/WI: French Brazil, Portuguese Canada

[holycookie]

So, Portugal is poorer and the dutch can concentrate more on Africa and Asia, so probably Portugal would lose these colonies faster than OTL.

the fall of these colonies in asia and africa will also depend on whether the iberian union takes place as in otl. With this union harming Portugal a lot.

Terra Nova would be a settler colony, pretty agrarian, but knowing how Portugal is, it would become a trade power.

The colony's exports will be agricultural products. In addition to wood for boats.

About the map, I find unlikely that they would be limited only in these lands.

How big do you think the colony would be?
This map would be the Portuguese colony in 1680+-, I don't see the Portuguese colonizing North America as a whole. Especially when the English start to colonize the region.

They have a big population growth, making them very expansionist, looking for new lands.

Yes parts of the region allow for high population growth especially in the New England region. But first the colonists must come. As @Viriato said "a small founding population of around 500 in the mid-17th century with only 5,000 additional immigrants would have grown to around 750,000 to 800,000 by 1800, if the rate of natural growth had been similar to that of New France or New England ." That would be a good population for the colony. But 800,000 doesn't allow for the colonization of all of North America. Unlike New France, the Portuguese colony will be more populous but not on the scale of Brazil, Mexico or the USA. Allowing them to hold the region, unlike France.

New France in less than a century, claimed and built lots of forts into the Mississipi-Missouri basin, and this with a smaller population.

This was the situation in New France. On paper the colony was gigantic, in practice it was tiny. The colony was a paper tiger. The Portuguese colony will be smaller but more solid.

Terra Nova would just expand into these areas, just with population growth. The same with the Eastern Seaboard. The portuguese will have a century of advantage in these regions. Maybe Portugal grab some Caribbean colonies, but they would just exploit the south.

A Portuguese colony in North America will not generate a copy of the USA.

But in this TL the people that formed Brazil is now in Terra Nova, and with a bigger population growth and the same thisty for richies. Is very possible for them to go west and find gold and exploit the south.

The colony in North America will not generate the same migration that Brazil generated. The population will grow more due to the climate and good land.

Considering how was Louisiana colonization OTL, the most plausible power to colonize the Mississipi is Terra Nova.

It is more likely that england, scotland or other power to colonize missisipe

Is very possible for them to become an economic powerhouse. This colony is basically formed by peasants, traders and artisans, instead of the big landlords and slavers. These type of population usually have much more potential to create a developed society.

The economy of the colony will be basically based on agrarian subsistence and with low literacy (as seen in new france). The colony can be an industrial power if it makes the right decisions, but it won't be a powerhouse (better an industrial superpower). It will be able to be a great power in the Americas and in the long term be one of the 10 largest economies in the world. The region has potential, but nothing is more common than nations that waste their potential.

 

[Viriato]

Is possible to attract immigrants, not mainly looking for riches, but poor people looking for lands, and that place has lots of it. And with the high population growth, since the early 16th century, when that colony was founded, by the mid 17th century, when these places were colonized OTL, the portuguese would have a huge advantage.


It wouldn't be a progenitor of the industrial revolution, but it has a big potential for industrialization, at least compared with OTL portuguese colonies, like Brazil.

It would likely have one big advantage insomuch as there would likely be little economic inequality, particularly compared with Brazil. The lack of plantation agriculture with an already small indigenous population coupled with navigable waterways and an abundance of arable land makes it so that the colony at the very least resembles French Quebec or Atlantic by the early 20th century. When looking at the distribution of consumer goods, these regions lagged Ontario, British Columbia and the Northern U.S., but their standard of living was still higher than most of the world's. One example is automobile ownership, in 1940 there was one automobile for every 5 people in Ontario, 6 in British Columbia, but only one in 14 in Quebec, lagging the rest of Canada by 15 years. When compared with Europe, however Quebec was still very advanced, and the level of development might be similar to that one.

A Portuguese Terra Nova has the advantage of likely gaining little interest in Lisbon, probably being left to its own devices after its initial establishment. Without onerous trading monopolies or policing similar to Brazil's as there is little of apparent value. The ability to trade directly with friendly nations (similar to the Azores and Madeira) might even allow settlers to exchange furs for manufactured goods directly with traders from Northern Europe. If the world progresses in a similar fashion to OTL, there is likely a push to spread literacy in the late 19th century, not dissimilar to that of Italy's, Spain's, Argentina or Chile's. Meaning an adult literacy rate of over 50% is achievable between 1890 to 1900 and one of 75% by 1925. By contrast, French Canada had a literacy rate of around 15% in 1800, jumping to 30% by 1850 and to 75% by 1900. Northern Italy, Catalonia and the Basque Country along with France are regions that offer a blueprint to what industrialisation might look like. I

English colonisation of North America, it is not a certainty. In the 17th century, far more English settlers preferred the West Indies to North America due to economic prospects there, though despite large numbers of settlers, the white population there declined rather that grew. If North America is settled, the Chesapeake is still a possible site as the James River seemed to offer protection from Spanish shipping and at the time most of the initial voyages of the English focused on settlements on a river that would be safe from Spanish attacks. It also seems that most English shipping routes preferred to sail southwards towards the Canary Islands and across to North America. It is also likely that the English focus their attacks on a French Brazil, particularly the "weaker" areas, and establishing a colony La Plata River Basin is also a possibility if French Brazil stretches as far south as Portuguese Brazil did. Without a French Caribbean or Canada, a French Louisiana is probably a non-starter, though a fur-trading post on the Hudson River certainly is. Anglo-French rivalry is almost a certainty, particularly if France attempts to gain control over the Low Countries, so Brazil will likely be a target of English piracy.

 

[holycookie]

It is also likely that the English focus their attacks on a French Brazil, particularly the "weaker" areas, and establishing a colony La Plata River Basin is also a possibility if French Brazil stretches as far south as Portuguese Brazil did.

A three way war in the Plata region then, between the Spanish, the English and the French. The Plata basin will have to change its name to the Widows basin.

Anglo-French rivalry is almost a certainty, particularly if France attempts to gain control over the Low Countries, so Brazil will likely be a target of English piracy.

Yes, in OTL, the Portuguese colony was attacked by French corsairs and in this case it will be English corsairs. Perhaps Frances Drake (or someone similar) is famous for looting of cities on the coast.

 

[Viriato]

I tried to do some quick calculations based on a colony of around 1,000 by 1550, and my earlier numbers were off. With only 2,500 additional immigrants during the next 250 year period, averaging around 10 new immigrants per year, or one shipload every decade the population reaches 750 to 800,000 by 1800.

 

[Northstar]

I've just been reading through this entire thread and it's a very interesting debate.

It is probable that the equivalent of bandeirantes/coureurs des bois emerge simply due to the opportunities presented by the frontier. Under French rule, the coureurs de bois men sometimes of mixed background, while others simply incorporated many native ways in their own lives. The canoe, is perhaps the most significant Indian technology they adopted. This "creolisation" was something that most Portuguese colonies developed, whether it be the Pombeiros in West Africa, Prazeiros in Mozambique, Topazes in Timor etc. "Creole Societies in the Portuguese Colonial Empire" by M. D. D. Newitt and Philip J. Havik explores this topic in detail.

This is interesting. I know the canoe is mainly associated with Native Americans, but I've never really thought about it before; was there no equivalent of a canoe in European history? Or elsewhere in the world?

Regards,

Northstar

 

[holycookie]

I tried to do some quick calculations based on a colony of around 1,000 by 1550, and my earlier numbers were off. With only 2,500 additional immigrants during the next 250 year period, averaging around 10 new immigrants per year, or one shipload every decade the population reaches 750 to 800,000 by 1800.

I think we can put the colony's population on the scale of 1M to 1.8M depending on immigration, without being weird.

The size of the French Bandeirantes expeditions will probably be bigger than the OTL or if they keep your OTL size we have more expeditions. The biggest expedition at the beginning of the 17th century was that of 1628. Nine hundred whites and 3 thousand Indians prepared an invasion against the Spanish Jesuits in the south of Brazil. If we use the small scale of French immigration (half of the portuguese) and compare it to the Portuguese. This expedition, which had almost 4 thousand in the expedition, would have around 35 thousand (to be exact 35,490). If we follow the division from whites to natives we will have about 11,830 whites, (although the bandeirantes are actually a mixture of white and native with some being identical to Europeans and others identical to natives and the rest being in between) and 26 thousand Indians. So the expeditions are going to be very big. I'm starting to think that the plata basin is going to be a bloodbath between all involved similar to the eastern european plains.

 

[Kurd Gossemer]

It would likely have one big advantage insomuch as there would likely be little economic inequality, particularly compared with Brazil. The lack of plantation agriculture with an already small indigenous population coupled with navigable waterways and an abundance of arable land makes it so that the colony at the very least resembles French Quebec or Atlantic by the early 20th century. When looking at the distribution of consumer goods, these regions lagged Ontario, British Columbia and the Northern U.S., but their standard of living was still higher than most of the world's. One example is automobile ownership, in 1940 there was one automobile for every 5 people in Ontario, 6 in British Columbia, but only one in 14 in Quebec, lagging the rest of Canada by 15 years. When compared with Europe, however Quebec was still very advanced, and the level of development might be similar to that one.

A Portuguese Terra Nova has the advantage of likely gaining little interest in Lisbon, probably being left to its own devices after its initial establishment. Without onerous trading monopolies or policing similar to Brazil's as there is little of apparent value. The ability to trade directly with friendly nations (similar to the Azores and Madeira) might even allow settlers to exchange furs for manufactured goods directly with traders from Northern Europe. If the world progresses in a similar fashion to OTL, there is likely a push to spread literacy in the late 19th century, not dissimilar to that of Italy's, Spain's, Argentina or Chile's. Meaning an adult literacy rate of over 50% is achievable between 1890 to 1900 and one of 75% by 1925. By contrast, French Canada had a literacy rate of around 15% in 1800, jumping to 30% by 1850 and to 75% by 1900. Northern Italy, Catalonia and the Basque Country along with France are regions that offer a blueprint to what industrialisation might look like. I

English colonisation of North America, it is not a certainty. In the 17th century, far more English settlers preferred the West Indies to North America due to economic prospects there, though despite large numbers of settlers, the white population there declined rather that grew. If North America is settled, the Chesapeake is still a possible site as the James River seemed to offer protection from Spanish shipping and at the time most of the initial voyages of the English focused on settlements on a river that would be safe from Spanish attacks. It also seems that most English shipping routes preferred to sail southwards towards the Canary Islands and across to North America. It is also likely that the English focus their attacks on a French Brazil, particularly the "weaker" areas, and establishing a colony La Plata River Basin is also a possibility if French Brazil stretches as far south as Portuguese Brazil did. Without a French Caribbean or Canada, a French Louisiana is probably a non-starter, though a fur-trading post on the Hudson River certainly is. Anglo-French rivalry is almost a certainty, particularly if France attempts to gain control over the Low Countries, so Brazil will likely be a target of English piracy.

Oh Wow, British Argentina cliche actually happening. But seriously, it would be interesting as the English would love setting up shop in a critical place like the Plata Basin and more importantly, Buenos Aires, making it a fortress city to halt French advances into the Pampas(especially as France would have Uruguay/Cisplatina/Sacramento under THEIR rule, so guarding the other critical lifeline of the Plata is essential if they want any influence in south America), plus given the Spanish Habsburgs would still sit on the throne, we could see a alliance between them and the British in South America to halt Further French encroachment, Bolivia and Paraguay are the most likely areas of conflict between the three as French colonists pull a American and flood the area with colonists to try and claim it while the British and Spanish do everything to hold them back.

In Europe, the British won't be able to do much against French expansion, the sheer wealth of Brazil would allow for a even more monstrous France to grab things like the Burgundian Inheritance and neuter something like the Dutch Republic, if the Germans from Hanover are in the throne too, it would be a even more intense rivalry as the French would have a easier time to invading it and carving it up between the neighboring German states.

 

[holycookie]

In terms of allies, this will be vital for both Portugal and France. Portugal will probably have its alliance with England and if it is smart remain cordial with Spain (especially now that there are no border disputes in the Americas like in OTL). For France, I would say that the country has to keep some countries in its sphere at all costs. The main country being Scotland. England in OTl managed to compete with the other powers by not needing to have an army after having unified Great Britain. If Scotland remains independent and an enemy of England the nation will need an army in addition to the navy putting the nation on a par with Spain and France. This will require French investment in Scotland, but it costs far less than having England focus exclusively on the navy (as in OTL). In addition to Scotland, the most important allies would be Bavaria (to have an important allied power within the HRE) and Venice in Italy to prevent Austrian influence (these two will require French economic or military help, but this means that the wars are far from French border). In addition, we have Poland and the Ottomans as temporary allies that help (with Poland being a great ally to delay or prevent Russian domination of Eastern Europe).

 

[holycookie]

But seriously, it would be interesting as the English would love setting up shop in a critical place like the Plata Basin and more importantly, Buenos Aires, making it a fortress city to halt French advances into the Pampas(especially as France would have Uruguay/Cisplatina/Sacramento under THEIR rule, so guarding the other critical lifeline of the Plata is essential if they want any influence in south America)

That would make a good story in my opinion. Focused on the Plata Basin, in the dispute between France, Spain and England. You have religious disputes (Protestants vs Catholics. With English Protestants trying to make French Protestants change sides and French Catholics trying to make Irish people change sides), Cowboys (with French and Spanish gauchos, and English cowboys), disputes over alliance of different local tribes, Jesuit orders (will show a more positive side of the interaction between the natives and Christianity), raids of the bandeirantes. You can even focus on the immigration of an Irish family to the region (for greater familiarity with history).

, plus given the Spanish Habsburgs would still sit on the throne, we could see a alliance between them and the British in South America to halt Further French encroachment

I don't know if spain will want to share the plata basin, especially with england having such a vital place as buenos aires. It is an important route for the flow of silver. Considering that England will have sent corsairs to the Caribbean I don't know how much Spain will like having English neighbors. But maybe they decide they don't have a choice

, Bolivia and Paraguay are the most likely areas of conflict between the three as French colonists pull a American and flood the area with colonists to try and claim it while the British and Spanish do everything to hold them back.

In Bolivia I find it unlikely, the most likely I think would be raids taking place with the bandeirantes and real invasions only after Corrientes and/or Resistencia is control by the French colonists. I would place the most violent conflicts in the Parana River (with the French attacks starting at Foz do Iguaçu, heading to Posadas and then Corrientes and from there it will spread throughout the central area of the basin), Uruguay River (to gain access to Rio Negro in Uruguay and to have access to the entrance of the Plata basin from the inside), and by land area in the Entre Rios region (whoever controls this area will be able to exert the greatest influence). After France secures the Entre Rios region and has access to the southernmost region of the Pampas, Buenos Aires is dead is just a matter of time.
The English have to secure the Uruguay, Paraná and Negro rivers. If they want to have a chance. And Spain has to guarantee everything so as not to lose the resource flow area

In Europe, the British won't be able to do much against French expansion, the sheer wealth of Brazil would allow for a even more monstrous France

Those who lose a lot with this change in strength are the Germanic powers, which in OTL did very well. England being an exception (they won't suffer as much as they can still have a colonial empire). The Dutch will be weaker (perhaps at the Portuguese level in the long run), the Germans will have even more wars in Central Europe (perhaps at the Thirty Years War level), the Austrians will have to make the HRE work (it's the only choice). Apart from them Italy may very well never be unified. Poles can reform the nation with French help. The Ottomans might age more gracefully without Austria on their necks. The Ottomans might age more gracefully without Austria on their necks. Or fall faster with an invasion led by countries like Poland, the Italian nations and maybe an independent Hungary.

 

[Kurd Gossemer]

In terms of allies, this will be vital for both Portugal and France. Portugal will probably have its alliance with England and if it is smart remain cordial with Spain (especially now that there are no border disputes in the Americas like in OTL). For France, I would say that the country has to keep some countries in its sphere at all costs. The main country being Scotland. England in OTl managed to compete with the other powers by not needing to have an army after having unified Great Britain. If Scotland remains independent and an enemy of England the nation will need an army in addition to the navy putting the nation on a par with Spain and France. This will require French investment in Scotland, but it costs far less than having England focus exclusively on the navy (as in OTL). In addition to Scotland, the most important allies would be Bavaria (to have an important allied power within the HRE) and Venice in Italy to prevent Austrian influence (these two will require French economic or military help, but this means that the wars are far from French border). In addition, we have Poland and the Ottomans as temporary allies that help (with Poland being a great ally to delay or prevent Russian domination of Eastern Europe).

Honestly I never understood why France always wanted to court the Poles, Russia not only was a bigger power who could throw it's weight around but it also butted heads with Austria quite often over eastern Europe, supporting them over Poland to keep to keep Austria bogged down in the Balkans while they both carve up the Ottomans would be the best choice. Plus, France could make a good amount of money being the main supplier of tropical and far eastern goods to the Russians and their million of subjects.

 

[Aluma]

Honestly I never understood why France always wanted to court the Poles,

I guess polish girls are just that pretty

I mean, Nappy waaaaas influenced by one...

 

[holycookie]

Honestly I never understood why France always wanted to court the Poles, Russia not only was a bigger power who could throw it's weight around but it also butted heads with Austria quite often over eastern Europe, supporting them over Poland to keep to keep Austria bogged down in the Balkans while they both carve up the Ottomans would be the best choice. Plus, France could make a good amount of money being the main supplier of tropical and far eastern goods to the Russians and their million of subjects.

First, both are Catholic, second, Poland is not as strong as Russia, making Poland more dependent on France. Not only that, but it's a very old relationship. With the French fighting alongside the Poles in battles such as the Battle of Nicopolis in 1396 against the Ottomans, forming a alliance in 1524, with members of the French royal family being elected kings of Poland, Polish kings married French princesses (and French kings marrying Polish princesses), a Polish king after his abdication preferred to die in exile in France, France tried to prevent the division of Poland (by sending officials), among other examples. It's a relationship that goes back centuries, so it's hard not to support Poland from the French point of view. They only suppported Russia when Prussia got too strong and they needed an ally in the east. The only way for this to change would be for Poland to choose a union with Austria, with that France supports Russia by necessity.

 

[minhow]

I made a crude map about this colony, using as reference from both OTL english and french colonies.

(Is a crude map made on paint, idk which software is better for it, anyways, on topic.)

The colony started around 1521, in Cape Breton, and started to expand, after that is following OTL patterns of colonies that were estabilished in the same region. In 1527, they claimed and settled around the Gulf of St. Lawrance, like the french did six years later, after colonizing the same region. After 50 years, they could have expanded inwards, into the Great Lakes, with the iroquois being the only obstacle. And around New England, the french couldn't do the same there because of the english, in this TL, there are only the portuguese as the colonizers.
The french claimed the Mississipi-Missouri basin after 60 years after founding their colony, and with a smaller population, the portuguese, at least the colonists, after 1580, could possibly do the same, with the advantage of having a bigger population, and will try to settle around New Orleans, on the mouth of Mississipi. Meanwhile, they could have settled south, into Virginia.
With english pirates settling around Georgia and Carolinas, to loot the spanish gold, the portuguese following the spanish crown, could had been sent there to expel the pirates and build forts around this region. In the original TL Viriato, they weren't expelled, but after what happened to Brazil, they could be defeated for sure. I dont know if the portuguese will take Florida from Spain after Iberian Union ends, but considering how neglected was this region, is a possibility, even if after the 1700s.

OTL colonization of NA was after 1600, the portuguese will have almost a century of advantage, and in this particular TL, they lost Brazil and the french and possibly the english are fighting for SA. Is very possible for Terra Nova colonize the whole NA without many problems.

 

[holycookie]

(Is a crude map made on paint)

The map is great, giving an idea of the Portuguese expansion. But I think it is expanding very quickly (or that would be the Portuguese Claim and not the truly controlled territory). To give a comparison this was Brazil in 1700. Even with the nice climate and fertile land (and plenty of children) I don't know if they'll have the population to colonize it all.

North America, year 1700

OTL colonization of NA was after 1600, the portuguese will have almost a century of advantage, and in this particular TL, they lost Brazil and the french and possibly the english are fighting for SA. Is very possible for Terra Nova colonize the whole NA without many problems.

The British may be fighting in South America for control of the Plata basin, but that doesn't stop them from being in the Caribbean and North America. What I think is most likely with England they are trying to colonize wherever they can (South America, North America and the Caribbean). In the caribbean I guess they would try to colonize OTL island of Santo Domingo. In north america I would say the coast from OTL state of louisiana to north carolina. It doesn't mean they will succeed, but they will try for sure. Or maybe the scots will try to colonized the mississippi (or a new poder like Denmark)

 

[minhow]

The map is great, giving an idea of the Portuguese expansion. But I think it is expanding very quickly (or that would be the Portuguese Claim and not the truly controlled territory). To give a comparison this was Brazil in 1700. Even with the nice climate and fertile land (and plenty of children) I don't know if they'll have the population to colonize it all.

Thank you.

Well, comparing with 1700 Brazil, is possible to see that colony expansion was pretty miraculous. With a small population growth and hard geography, the portuguese managed to settle even in the interior, and that was (and still is) a hard task for Brazil. Is possible to see that they followed the rivers, the Parnaiba and San Francisco rivers, but those aren't so great for navigation and don't connect important regions. The interior wasn't so good too, with jungle, hills, semi arid regions and savanna, all with deadly tropical climate and diseases, with some of these regions being properly settled post WW2.

For NA that would be very different. The rivers, both the St. Lawrence and Mississippi are good for navigation, and they are practically connected by the the Great Lakes, so is possible to create a pretty continuous waterway going from North Atlantic to Gulf of Mexico. The NA interior is well connected by rivers and is very much better to settle compared to Brazil. The land is fertile and good, and many settlements will be formed, like happened OTL.

The British may be fighting in South America for control of the Plata basin, but that doesn't stop them from being in the Caribbean and North America. What I think is most likely with England they are trying to colonize wherever they can (South America, North America and the Caribbean). In the caribbean I guess they would try to colonize OTL island of Santo Domingo. In north america I would say the coast from OTL state of louisiana to north carolina. It doesn't mean they will succeed, but they will try for sure. Or maybe the scots will try to colonized the mississippi (or a new poder like Denmark)

They will settle the caribbean, and is possible for them to settle in NA, but with the big portuguese population there, and what happened before in Brazil, will be very hard for the portuguese to allow it, considering that protestants and pirates were the same that formed the french colonies in Brazil, and they will don't want a repeat of it in NA.

Is pretty hard to have more than one colony controlling the Mississippi, due connectivity, so the portuguese will have the advantage.

 

[holycookie]

With a small population growth and hard geography, the portuguese managed to settle even in the interior, and that was (and still is) a hard task for Brazil.

This comes primarily through the bandeirates who go looking for gold and slaves. While the Portuguese colony will have children with the natives (as seen in Catholic powers) the scale will be much smaller due to the lack of sexual imbalance in the colony. This group of mix people will not look for slaves, but maybe they will look for gold.

Is possible to see that they followed the rivers, the Parnaiba and San Francisco rivers, but those aren't so great for navigation and don't connect important regions. The interior wasn't so good too, with jungle, hills, semi arid regions and savanna, all with deadly tropical climate and diseases,

While the bandeirantes used the rivers to get around (like any exploratory group), they did a good part of their exploration in dense forest on foot.

with some of these regions being properly settled post WW2.

Yes, the center west of the country and the Amazon

The rivers, both the St. Lawrence and Mississippi are good for navigation, and they are practically connected by the the Great Lakes, so is possible to create a pretty continuous waterway going from North Atlantic to Gulf of Mexico.

Yes, that connection that is the problem in my opinion. The Amazon and Plata basins are closed-circuit, so whoever controls the entrance to the basin controls the basin as a whole. Different from OTL Brasil, with the Portuguese only having to control the only entrance to the Amazon basin and that ended the matter (the same with the Plata basin in general). In this case, they will have to control the different inputs of the different basins, it is a more complicated job with less incentives than in the OTL. Because Brazil produced gold and cash crops and therefore it was important to find good geographical barriers for the colony. The colony has none of the incentives being basically a dropped colony that grows and expands on its own. Without a great deal of help from the metropolis the colony does not have the power to control such an extensive area especially against an expedition from a nation wanting to look for a good area to colonize. That's why I think they can't hold the entrance to the Mississippi Basin.

Now the Great Lakes-St. Lawrence River Basin are a good possibility to be secured by settlers especially considering that the Great Lakes are separated from the Mississippi River by 9 kilometers. That despite not being a great distance are a good way to demarcate territory. So I tend to think it's almost certain that the great lakes will be dominated by Portuguese settlers. The missisipe will not, being controlled by which nation to colonize the entrance to the basin, perhaps the English/Scots/or some other power. What can happen is that the portuguese have a part of the missisipe basin close to the great lakes region (similar to the situation in brazil which has part of the plata basin, but on a smaller scale)

The NA interior is well connected by rivers and is very much better to settle compared to Brazil. The land is fertile and good, and many settlements will be formed, like happened OTL.

Unlike Brazil, NA has much larger and more organized tribes. So these expansions will be more violet and involve more serious wars and coalitions against the Portuguese expansion. In OTL we had things like the Northwestern Confederacy in NA, this never happened in Brazil because there are much less tribes that are much more primitive. It's not going to be a walk in a park, it's going to be a constant war over land.

They will settle the caribbean, and is possible for them to settle in NA, but with the big portuguese population there, and what happened before in Brazil, will be very hard for the portuguese to allow it, considering that protestants and pirates were the same that formed the french colonies in Brazil, and they will don't want a repeat of it in NA.

What happened in OTL in Brazil was that most of the attacks were focused on the northeast, the region that at the time was the most populous. We see this with the Dutch. The south of NA will not have a large Portuguese population at most some forts. Not to mention the Appalachian mountain range, which will slow down expansion.

Is pretty hard to have more than one colony controlling the Mississippi, due connectivity, so the portuguese will have the advantage.

Not necessarily, as the map I already posted shows. The french symbolically controlled both basins, but not having colonized the region, became easy prey. If the Portuguese follow this path, it will be a giant colony on the map but without solid foundations. At the first pressure it will collapse. That's why the Portuguese focus on the region from New England to The Great Lakes to make a solid area, it's safer.
Something along the lines of this map in the year 1700 is in my opinion the most likely. With the settlers on their own securing a pretty good part of North America. It makes more sense in my opinion than the Portuguese having basically conquered up to OTL state of Idaho in 1587 and fully conquered OTL territory of the thirteen colonies in 1610.
OTL 1700 My map 1700 Your map