Immigration data from both the Brazilian government and the Portuguese government give a total of 600,000 immigration with an average of 10 million per year from 1701 to 1760. Data disputes will occur as in this case with English claims that the number is inflated. But as a whole considering that the number has remained unchanged to this day in both nations tends to indicate that the number is right. With a drop in immigration that occurred after the gold rush, passing to an average of 2,666 per year from 1808 to 1817. And after that, immigration only returned to the thousands in 1856.
I have seen that number of 600,000 thrown around, but with no actual evidence or even a thesis to support how that figure was calculated. It seems they are just estimates without any evidence to back up those claims. Records are scant, however it is known that around 1720 the Portuguese government did implement a passport program to limit the movement from the Portuguese mainland (the Atlantic Islands were exempt). That being said, even a number as high as 250,000 was significant.

Regarding a French Brazil, it is known that prosperity did attract settlers, with the white population of Saint-Domingue increasing from 14,258 in 1754 to 27,000 by the 1780s, however most of these were men. Researching contemporary texts from the French Antilles, in the 17th and 18th centuries there were times where the French crown attempted to send white women to the colonies. Women were sent to French Canada, Louisiana, Saint-Domingue and Martinique. However, it seems at the time, these women, particularly in Louisiana and the West Indies were thought of as prostitutes and whores. Baron Alexandre-Stanislas de Wimpffen, who wrote on his years in Saint-Domingue between 1788 and 1790 claimed that the French government was sending "whores from the gutter" from the Salpêtrière to the colony. In 1743 the governor, Charles de Brunier, Marquis de Larnage also complained that the women the government were sending had been "too used". What is interesting to note is that most modern historians agree that most of the women sent were usually from respectable backgrounds, with many coming from poor houses however, their reputations were tainted. The result might be that a French Brazil is even more racially mixed, particularly if fewer women are willing or interested in making the journey. Additionally, the from what I have been reading, there were not official sanctions against mixed-race unions, and indeed some French authorities were against sending white women to the colonies as they were relegated to living in "decadence and boredom" .

Médéric Louis Élie Moreau de Saint-Méry, himself a creole from Martinique argued against sending white women to the tropical colonies based on assumptions that white women were not suited for the tropics. He claimed that "heat produces extreme sensitivity in their nervous systems", arguing that creole women were excessively cruel against slaves because of their jealousies of slave mistresses. According to him, white women born in the colonies were at a disadvantage from birth, stating that not only their nervous systems were impaired, but also their manner of speech. He seemed to argue that mixed-race mulatto women were the best adapted to the colonial world, particularly for French men. In his writings he argued that women in Saint-Domingue were only divided into twoc classes, those who are pretty, and those who are not.

Though certainly not free from racism, looking at notary records in the French Caribbean, race was not commonly mentioned until after the 1760s, and mixed-race unions were never outlawed as they were in British colonies. Additionally, as in Brazil, concubinage was very common in the French colonies. Though in the French Caribbean the sharing of women seemed to have led to venereal diseases being widespread amongst the white men of the colony. This of course led to sterility in many, and a s a result, fewer families white families emerged. However, those who did have offspring with women of colour, even had children that achieved status and power.

It is also important consider in the long term might be if the French gain control over large areas of India, as they nearly did before 1760, they might seek to replace slave labour with Indians (as they did in Reunion), or possibly bring in Chinese coolies if that ever becomes the norm.
 
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I have seen that number of 600,000 thrown around, but with no actual evidence or even a thesis to support how that figure was calculated. It seems they are just estimates without any evidence to back up those claims.
Well it is the official data of the two governments
What is interesting to note is that most modern historians agree that most of the women sent were usually from respectable backgrounds, with many coming from poor houses however, their reputations were tainted. The result might be that a French Brazil is even more racially mixed, particularly if fewer women are willing or interested in making the journey.
Until the immigration of the 19th century, the nation was basically a racially mixed country. With the elite being white.
Additionally, the from what I have been reading, there were not official sanctions against mixed-race unions, and indeed some French authorities were against sending white women to the colonies as they were relegated to living in "decadence and boredom" .
Portugal, like France, did not care much for the union between races in the colony.
himself a creole from Martinique argued against sending white women to the tropical colonies based on assumptions that white women were not suited for the tropics. He claimed that "heat produces extreme sensitivity in their nervous systems", arguing that creole women were excessively cruel against slaves because of their jealousies of slave mistresses.
This was a problem in Brazil too. It was even worse with things like black mothers being the upper-class wet nurses, causing the children to have an affection for these women and causing long-term disputes between the wet nurses and the biological mothers (who didn't participate much in the upbringing) for influence .
In his writings he argued that women in Saint-Domingue were only divided into twoc classes, those who are pretty, and those who are not.
how french of him
Though certainly not free from racism, looking at notary records in the French Caribbean, race was not commonly mentioned until after the 1760s, and mixed-race unions were never outlawed as they were in British colonies. Additionally, as in Brazil, concubinage was very common in the French colonies. Though in the French Caribbean the sharing of women seemed to have led to venereal diseases being widespread amongst the white men of the colony. This of course led to sterility in many, and a s a result, fewer families white families emerged. However, those who did have offspring with women of colour, even had children that achieved status and power.
Brazil presents the same thing minus the sharing of women.
It is also important consider in the long term might be if the French gain control over large areas of India, as they nearly did before 1760, they might seek to replace slave labour with Indians (as they did in Reunion), or possibly bring in Chinese coolies if that ever becomes the norm.
at a higher rate than otl japanese immigration? This would be interesting with the largest Chinese diaspora being in the Atlantic.
 
One interesting thing to notice is that there wouldn't be something like a Dutch Brazil TTL, either because they're conquered earlier by France or because the French position on their colony is stronger than the Portuguese was and it would be folly attacking them, one of the effects of the Dutch being in Brazil was taking what they learned there and applying it to the caribbean, followed by the British and French, thus lowering the level of sugar prices and forcing the colony to find other revenues as well as expand further, not coincidentally stuff like tobacco plantations, cattle raising, planting of drogas do sertao and further Bandeiras in search of gold were increasing. With the sugar prices remaining high for a while longer, it would lead to the region staying focused on the northeast for longer too, until the golds and diamonds are discovered at least, and even then the French colonists would still use the Sao Francisco(or would it be St. Francis here?) to get much desired supplies from the richest region in the colonies, especially if we follow OTL where there were famines because people forgot to bring food and poured everything into mining... leading to people eating tree barks and roots to survive, meaning stuff like cattle as well as metrople products would come trough the river, further increasing the population of the region around the river and further making the Southeast less important as transporting through the mountains would be seen as difficult but necessary to better guard the one fifth of all gold mined.

Even if Rio still becomes the new capital due to it's proximity to Minas as well as being quicker to transport the gold in, the northeast would still remain the richest part for a few decades more.
 
at a higher rate than otl japanese immigration? This would be interesting with the largest Chinese diaspora being in the Atlantic.

Possibly, most Japanese migration to Brazil was of a very different nature as the Brazilian government entire families and offered them land. The coolie trade however, was entirely made up of men whom were contracted for a stipulated period to work abroad. In Cuba, some 125,000 to 150,000 were recruited between 1847 and 1874 to work on the sugar plantations, but by 1877 their population had fallen to 47,116 as many had left. In French Reunion, Chinese were recruited beginning in 1844 to build levees, but their importation was halted in 1846. Beginning in the 19th century, the recruitment of Indians to Reunion, led to some 120,000 indentured labourers being brought to the island by 1917. Many were Tamils from Pondicherry and Karikal to Reunion brought to work on the sugar plantations of that island, and today there are around 200,000 people of Tamil origin on Reunion. There were also Telugu, Bengali and other groups from India brought to the island.
 
Also worth noticing, with French Brazil being bigger overall and with control of most of the Guianas, coffee would be introduced much earlier and would become THE major crop, surpassing sugar with time and bringing in huge amounts of revenue to the crown, it's really hard to explain just how big coffee was for Brazil as it drove up slave buying and generated a massive amount of wealth for everyone(sans the workers) due to how popular coffee was everywhere, so Sao Paulo, Minas and Rio would have a sudden relevance once the sugar was down and coffee production went up, meaning that they truly become the heart of the colony and place where things get done.

The French of course are going to use the money and coffee not only for the usual military conquests(by now they probably control the whole of the Netherlands, the islands of Sardinia, Corsica, Catalonia, Balearic Islands, Channel Islands, Savoy, Genoa, Milan... Only the left bank of the Rhine to subjugate and create the "natural borders") but also further modernizing the country as well as developing it's navy to protect the "Black Gold" from Brazil.
 
One interesting thing to notice is that there wouldn't be something like a Dutch Brazil TTL, either because they're conquered earlier by France or because the French position on their colony is stronger than the Portuguese was and it would be folly attacking them
I see English/dutch privateers attacking the coast for money. But wars of conquest would fail worse than OTL.
, one of the effects of the Dutch being in Brazil was taking what they learned there and applying it to the caribbean, ith the sugar prices remaining high for a while longer, it would lead to the region staying focused on the northeast for longer too, until the golds and diamonds are discovered at least, and even then the French colonists would still use the Sao Francisco(or would it be St. Francis(.
Not only that but the colony's resources in the OTL were used to strengthen the enemies of France. With Portugal and the Netherlands having an agreement on sugar production. The Dutch participated in the sugar enterprise in Brazil from the beginning. They financed the installation of mills and, in return, became the main responsible for the sugar refining process and for its commercialization in Europe. This enterprise was so important to them that, between the years 1621 and 1622, the number of sugar refineries in the north of Holland grew from three to twenty-nine. The Dutch obtained significant profits from the sale of refined sugar to other European countries. Earning a lot from it. I don't see France wanting to share sugar profits with the Dutch like the Portuguese did. So the place that will refine and distribute this resource to Europe will be France, encouraging French industry to the detriment of the Dutch one.

With England the same thing with a good part of the gold of the Portuguese colony going to England. Economic exchanges between countries were uneven, leading to a huge flow of Brazilian gold to England. This means that, while Portugal had the currency, the British had the products to sell. In Plutos Brasiliensis, Eschwege reports: "Portugal, which took little care of industry, because it could buy manufactured goods cheaper abroad than in its own territory, gave up its abundant gold in exchange for luxury goods, continually replaced by new ones. ."In 1738, for example, 8 thousand kg of gold were (according to Noya Pinto) necessary for the Portuguese to pay the difference between imports and exports with the British. He states that "We can admit that the English absorbed almost 60%, only with legal trade", so it is almost as if Brazil were an English colony (in terms of gold). Another historian named Marques states that "Britain is at the heart of a radical financial transformation in the world. So there is a huge demand not only for the currency itself, which will circulate and lubricate economies, but also as a money stock for emerging banks, that will give security to the economy. The entire British credit system is anchored in this. And the engine is mining in Brazil".

With a single conquest (Brazil) France not only gained the resources to be the hegemony of Europe (or at least its superpower). But also it significantly weakens its rivals (England and Holland).I think France's failure to colonize this region was one of the nation's worst mistakes.
 
I see English/dutch privateers attacking the coast for money. But wars of conquest would fail worse than OTL.

Not only that but the colony's resources in the OTL were used to strengthen the enemies of France. With Portugal and the Netherlands having an agreement on sugar production. The Dutch participated in the sugar enterprise in Brazil from the beginning. They financed the installation of mills and, in return, became the main responsible for the sugar refining process and for its commercialization in Europe. This enterprise was so important to them that, between the years 1621 and 1622, the number of sugar refineries in the north of Holland grew from three to twenty-nine. The Dutch obtained significant profits from the sale of refined sugar to other European countries. Earning a lot from it. I don't see France wanting to share sugar profits with the Dutch like the Portuguese did. So the place that will refine and distribute this resource to Europe will be France, encouraging French industry to the detriment of the Dutch one.

With England the same thing with a good part of the gold of the Portuguese colony going to England. Economic exchanges between countries were uneven, leading to a huge flow of Brazilian gold to England. This means that, while Portugal had the currency, the British had the products to sell. In Plutos Brasiliensis, Eschwege reports: "Portugal, which took little care of industry, because it could buy manufactured goods cheaper abroad than in its own territory, gave up its abundant gold in exchange for luxury goods, continually replaced by new ones. ."In 1738, for example, 8 thousand kg of gold were (according to Noya Pinto) necessary for the Portuguese to pay the difference between imports and exports with the British. He states that "We can admit that the English absorbed almost 60%, only with legal trade", so it is almost as if Brazil were an English colony (in terms of gold). Another historian named Marques states that "Britain is at the heart of a radical financial transformation in the world. So there is a huge demand not only for the currency itself, which will circulate and lubricate economies, but also as a money stock for emerging banks, that will give security to the economy. The entire British credit system is anchored in this. And the engine is mining in Brazil".

With a single conquest (Brazil) France not only gained the resources to be the hegemony of Europe (or at least its superpower). But also it significantly weakens its rivals (England and Holland).I think France's failure to colonize this region was one of the nation's worst mistakes.
Very well said, given that the British simply do not have enough powerful allies to threaten the French in the mainland (Spain would still be reforming and strengthening themselves, dutch are too small, Italians allied or indifferent to the French, German princes are part of the HRE and either stand to gain with French expansion, are enemies or are in the sphere of influence) and increased French power not only in land, water, government institutions but also monetarily means that the two big advantages England always had over the French (navy and better economy) don't exist here and they'll play second fiddle to the powerful french empire, they'll have significant colonies and will be a regional power in their own right, but no Pax Britannia like OTL, just slightly irrelevant Great Britain in the grand scheme of things.
 
Possibly, most Japanese migration to Brazil was of a very different nature as the Brazilian government entire families and offered them land. The coolie trade however, was entirely made up of men whom were contracted for a stipulated period to work abroad.
In this case, this group will probably be a very small minority in the colony or disappear completely.
Also worth noticing, with French Brazil being bigger overall and with control of most of the Guianas, coffee would be introduced much earlier and would become THE major crop, surpassing sugar with time and bringing in huge amounts of revenue to the crown, it's really hard to explain just how big coffee was for Brazil as it drove up slave buying and generated a massive amount of wealth for everyone(sans the workers) due to how popular coffee was everywhere, so Sao Paulo, Minas and Rio would have a sudden relevance once the sugar was down and coffee production went up, meaning that they truly become the heart of the colony and place where things get done.
Right at OTL coffee was the main export product of the Brazilian economy during the 19th century and the beginning of the 20th century, guaranteeing the necessary currency to support the Empire of Brazil and also the Old Republic. Being introduced in 1727 (by a Portuguese who took French coffee seedlings from Guyana). From there, coffee was timidly spread along the Brazilian coast, heading south, until it reached the region of Rio de Janeiro, around 1760. Its production on a commercial scale for export only gained strength in the early 19th century. This size of coffee production was only possible with the increase in demand for the product by consumer markets in Europe and the USA. Coffee was actually consumed heavily by Europeans around the 17th century.

So coffee will probably surpass sugar by the middle of the 17th century, which in OTL was right in the middle of the sugar cycle in OTL. As a whole, the colony had 7 great economic cycles of commodities. The Brazilwood Cycle, Gold Cycle, Cattle Cycle, Cotton Cycle, Coffee Cycle, Rubber Cycle and Cocoa Cycle ( the cocoa e rubber cycle is in the 19 century). With the strongest being sugar, coffee and gold. (The ones that really matter for the colony would be the ones until the 18th century for the development of the colony. And also because if I talk about everyone, it will take up a whole page).

The pau-brasil cycle was the first economic cycle in Brazil. The tree, also called pau-de-pernambuco It is estimated that there were, at the time of discovery, more than 70 million pau-brasis, abundant in an 18 km strip of the coast of Rio Grande do Norte to Guanabara. Almost all were knocked down and taken to the European continent. .Pernambuco, the place where the exploitation of the tree began, had the most coveted wood in the Old World, which explains the fact that pau-brasil has as its main name "pernambuco" in languages such as French and Italian.

During the sugar Cycle period, Brazil was the largest sugar producer in the world in the 16th and 17th centuries. By the beginning of the 17th century, Pernambuco was the largest and richest sugar producing area in the world. From the beginning of the 18th century, production in the Caribbean islands and the Antilles grew and Brazil lost positions in world sugar production. Haiti, a French colony in the Caribbean, was the world's largest producer. Brazil was not at the center of events but continued to be among the top five producers. Returning to being the biggest producer in the 20th century.

In the coffee cycle that lasted +- 100 years, Brazil became the main coffee producer in the world (being the largest producer until today). More than half of the coffee consumed in the world was Brazilian. It was this wealth brought by coffee that solidified the economic dominance of the Brazilian southeast (in particular São Paulo) over the rest of the apis/colony. Due to the investment of the coffee barons in the industrialization of the region.

The gold cycle started in the 1690s, Eventually, the Brazilian Gold Rush created the world's longest gold rush period and the largest gold mines in South America. Officially, 800 metric tons of gold were sent to Portugal in the 18th century (it was probably more). For comparison in the three centuries of Spanish colonization approximately 200 metric tons of gold that the Spaniards brought to Spain in three centuries (what Spain really extracted was silver, more than 16,000 tons of silver. With approximately half going to China through commerce).

The cattle cycle goes from the 16th century to the end of the 18th century, mainly in the Northeast. The spread of cattle herds throughout the interior of Brazil, through an active trade in cattle, charqueada meat and leather, ensured the development of inhospitable areas and the colonial geographic expansion, serving as a factor of unity in almost the entire country. The dispute over fields becomes quite violent when the Portuguese arrive in the south. The fertile fields of the southern region have the most favorable conditions for breeding, an activity that led to their occupation. Even while the ownership of the lands stretching from Laguna to the River Plate was not defined, and the incursions of the bandeirantes from São Paulo into that vast area had already begun, the whole of the South was transformed into an immense cattle corral, the main motive of the dispute between Portugal and Spain for ownership of the region (due to the south of Brazil and the region of Plata basin having the pampas). With the production of cattle being in my opinion one of the reasons for wars in the pampas between the Spanish and the French

The cotton cycle refers to the period in which this product had great prominence in the Brazilian economy, especially in Maranhão, between the mid-18th century and the beginning of the 19th century, being responsible for strong economic growth in the region. In the colonial period, cotton also developed in the Captaincy of São Vicente, from where the product was exported to Rio de Janeiro and Bahia. (with the colony being among the biggest producers)

If france manages to make several of these cycles occur at the same time or last longer/be more productive, france will be the richest country in europe, by a very good margin.
The French of course are going to use the money and coffee not only for the usual military conquests(by now they probably control the whole of the Netherlands, the islands of Sardinia, Corsica, Catalonia, Balearic Islands, Channel Islands, Savoy, Genoa, Milan... Only the left bank of the Rhine to subjugate and create the "natural borders") but also further modernizing the country as well as developing it's navy to protect the "Black Gold" from Brazil.
Regarding the expansion in Europe, I think we can divide it into three groups (the first being the easiest to expand, the second with medium difficulty and the third being the most difficult). In the first group I would put Savoy, Genoa and the island of Corsica. In the second group I would put Balearic Islands (Although the Balearic Islands are not worth the work, Gibralta is much more important.), island of Sardinia and Channel Islands. Third I would put Netherlands (I would divide the region into three, with spanish netherlands being placed on easy. the staats brabant region on medium difficulty and the rest on hardest) and Catalonia (not worth the work).
I think france will be a similar size to this (winning some wars and losing others without being a wank france).
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Very well said, given that the British simply do not have enough powerful allies to threaten the French in the mainland (Spain would still be reforming and strengthening themselves, dutch are too small, Italians allied or indifferent to the French, German princes are part of the HRE and either stand to gain with French expansion, are enemies or are in the sphere of influence) and increased French power not only in land, water, government institutions but also monetarily means that the two big advantages England always had over the French (navy and better economy) don't exist here and they'll play second fiddle to the powerful french empire, they'll have significant colonies and will be a regional power in their own right, but no Pax Britannia like OTL, just slightly irrelevant Great Britain in the grand scheme of things.
England will do what it did before beating France, eating on the edges and making attacks of opportunity on the various European powers. If they manage to conquer Bengal they will have the power to keep up with France (suffering but they will). Unlike the OTL with france trying to stay competitive with england this one will be the opposite with england having to work hard to keep up with france.
 
If the French were able to gain effective control over Brazil, the question of what becomes of the West Indies is significant. In the 17th century the Dutch, English and French all began establishing colonies in the Antilles, often seeking islands that were not under formal Spanish control to establish colonies. Eventually, this led to direct attacks on Spanish treasure fleets and even annexing areas under Spanish control, with the English seizure Jamaica of 1655 being the most notable, though the British occupation of Havana in 1762-1763 being very significant as well. The rise of sugar colonies in territories controlled by rival states of France is almost inevitable, the question becomes if it is England, Denmark, or something completely different such as a Catholic Netherlands under a cadet branch of the Habsburgs. Or, perhaps something very different occurs and the Counts of East Frisia or Counts of Oldenburg make territorial acquisitions and establish a state that has overseas colonies with Emden or Jadenbusen becoming important ports.
 
If the French were able to gain effective control over Brazil, the question of what becomes of the West Indies is significant. In the 17th century the Dutch, English and French all began establishing colonies in the Antilles, often seeking islands that were not under formal Spanish control to establish colonies. Eventually, this led to direct attacks on Spanish treasure fleets and even annexing areas under Spanish control, with the English seizure Jamaica of 1655 being the most notable, though the British occupation of Havana in 1762-1763 being very significant as well. The rise of sugar colonies in territories controlled by rival states of France is almost inevitable, the question becomes if it is England, Denmark, or something completely different such as a Catholic Netherlands under a cadet branch of the Habsburgs. Or, perhaps something very different occurs and the Counts of East Frisia or Counts of Oldenburg make territorial acquisitions and establish a state that has overseas colonies with Emden or Jadenbusen becoming important ports.
Depending on how France deals with the Netherlands, there might not even be a Dutch Republic around to create colonies or at least, something under the thumb of French arms and influence in the same way the PLC was for the Russian Empire, in that void, the Brits, Portuguese, Danes and the still not insignificant Spain will be the likely players in the Caribbean, although like I mentioned before, It's probable the French establish a colony in the West Indies, either Santo Domingo or Cuba given how they're strategic important places and produce a lot of stuff like sugar, indigo, coffee, tobacco and such.
 
England will do what it did before beating France, eating on the edges and making attacks of opportunity on the various European powers. If they manage to conquer Bengal they will have the power to keep up with France (suffering but they will). Unlike the OTL with france trying to stay competitive with england this one will be the opposite with england having to work hard to keep up with france.
That's a big if however, with the French monarchy seeing just how much they can profit from the colonial trade, we'll probably see them going to India and the East Indies and playing second to Portugal there, with their already massive amounts of revenue the French crown generated they would entrench themselves better to gain the resources of India. So by the time the Brits do arrive they'll be dealing with a France who already has decades of India and East Asia, although it would also be a perfect time for them to activate their alliance with Portugal to try and expell the French out, key word being try.
 
It's probable the French establish a colony in the West Indies, either Santo Domingo or Cuba given how they're strategic important places and produce a lot of stuff like sugar, indigo, coffee, tobacco and such.
Maybe, but I think it's more likely that someone else could take these islands. With France already having a place that produces a lot of sugar. They will look for an island that will allow French privateers to attack Spanish gold shipments.
That's a big if however, with the French monarchy seeing just how much they can profit from the colonial trade, we'll probably see them going to India and the East Indies and playing second to Portugal there, with their already massive amounts of revenue the French crown generated they would entrench themselves better to gain the resources of India. So by the time the Brits do arrive they'll be dealing with a France who already has decades of India and East Asia, although it would also be a perfect time for them to activate their alliance with Portugal to try and expell the French out, key word being try.
This was basically what happened with France and England disputing India. England due to controlling bengal (and good commanders) won. This may not happen in this TL or India is shared between several powers.
 
Excellent topic, interesting timeline. I liked the idea of a portuguese NA, and Viriato timeline about this was fantastic.

How would Terra Nova would develop in this world? Portugal was expelled from Brazil and probably will be expelled from Africa too, to sustain the slave population required to man the colony. The dutch almost expelled them from Asia, OTL, would Portugal be expelled in this one?

With Terra Nova practically as the single colony, how would it develop? In this TL, this colony will receive lots of immigrants, that went to Brazil, Africa and Asia, so the growth will be faster.

Will Terra Nova colonize the New England, Eastern Seaboard, the South and Mississipi? The Mississipi was colonized by the french early OTL, now this region is abandoned for Brazil. New England is closer to initial Terra Nova, so it will probably have an immigration push.

The Eastern Seabord and the South was populated by english, both religious people and pirates lurking for spanish gold. In Viriato TL despite being in the Iberian Union and hostile to english, the portuguese didn't expelled them. Now could it be different, with puritans going for Brazil and with only pirates remaining, with Portugal building forts around these places?

Now with OTL "brazilian founders" in Terra Nova, they would for sure send bandeiras inside NA looking for gold, the landowners would see the south as lucrative, with tobacco, cotton and sugar, making that region more lucrative.

Territory wise they could have had initially the Eastern coast to Mississipi? It was a massive violation of Tordesillas, but it was violated several times OTL, with new treaties replacing it, and Spain cared much less about NA too.

So, it could become like the US in long run? Would it become an industrial powerhouse?
 
the Brits, Portuguese, Danes and the still not insignificant Spain will be the likely players in the Caribbean, although like I mentioned before, It's probable the French establish a colony in the West Indies, either Santo Domingo or Cuba given how they're strategic important places and produce a lot of stuff like sugar, indigo, coffee, tobacco and such.
The Portuguese would be very unlikely to establish a colony in the Caribbean, particularly if they are so weakened that they've lost Brazil. Additionally, the Azores and Madeira produces enough sugar for Portugal's domestic consumption, even allowing a small surplus to export. Most Portuguese indigo imports came from India, and if they maintain a colony there, this might remain the case.

Hispaniola and Cuba only produced small amounts of sugar prior to the 18th century as the Spanish limited sugar imports in an effort to protect growers in Andalusia and the Canary Islands. Both islands, along with Puerto Rico and Jamaica were leather hides, with a ranching economy dominating the islands. The second most important export was ginger, as it was seen as a medicinal herb, Cuba's sugar economy did not takeoff until the British occupation of Havana. Tobacco would become the island's major crop, but even this had not yet taken off. By 1620, the island only had 7,500 inhabitants, more than half of whom lived near Havana, its primary purpose being a provisioning station for Spanish treasure fleets. Spanish Jamaica had a population of 1,500 by 1640 and the islands were something of a backwater with constant emigration towards the Spanish Main.

If the French gain control of Northeastern Brazil and extend their holdings north of the Amazon towards the Guianas they will likely have enough land to flood the European sugar, tobacco, cacao and later coffee markets, without having to acquire holdings in the Caribbean. What might happen, however is during times of war with Spain, French privateers (with letters of the marque) establish bases in the less inhabited islands, such as Tortuga, the Bahamas etc to attack Spanish treasure fleets. However, it is likely that powerful well-connected planters would pressure the French crown to not allow private companies to establish or tobacco producing colonies in the Antilles.

The English, are the most likely to establish some sort of presence, and if the union with Scotland is butterflied away, the Scots might attempt their own trading company, as the Scots played a prominent role in the Danish West India Company, the Ostend Company and even in the French Mississippi Company, with John Law leading to the bubble of the latter.
 
Excellent topic, interesting timeline. I liked the idea of a portuguese NA, and Viriato timeline about this was fantastic.
@Viriato and @Kurd Gossemer gave great answers on page 2, and I made a map of what I think would be the Portuguese colony on page 1. Here is a part of @Kurd Gossemer 's answer:

"As Viriato said, Portuguese North America would be very much like The Azores before they became overpopulated: Not much literacy because it's not necessary to dos something like ploughing a field or cutting a tree, plenty of land available means dowry are not as important and thus people marry earlier and have more kids, a more rural population means diseases don't kill as many people due to people not being crammed into cities with poor sanitation as well as more food around means better resistance. The fact that the colony immediately wouldn't give gold like Mexico and Peru did for Spain means that it would basically grow on a mixture of natural birthrates(which would've been very high given frontier places have a higher one) as well as the occasional peasant, city dweller and family going there as the products the colony could offer would be revenue from taxes, from merchants selling their goods like Porto wine and eastern objects to the elites of the colony and from stuff like food and timber(which would've at least avoid famines in Portugal and high quality wood for their navy.) as the Portuguese would continue their focus on The Indies, East Asia and India itself, we might see them in wars with the Dutch over trading posts and strategic places in Asia since they wouldn't have Brazil to occupy their time, internal reforms are likely to come and sticky around too, especially given the Portuguese wouldn't have the golds and diamonds that allowed them to ignore the flaws in their system and would need to be more practical with their resources, this ironically leaves them in a better position compared to OTL with a more modernized state apparatus, bigger presence in Asia, presence in Africa that would expand given the advantages trading with them would give as well as a decent empire in North America and maybe a island in the Caribbean to compensate the fact they don't have Brazil."

My map:
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Now with OTL "brazilian founders" in Terra Nova, they would for sure send bandeiras inside NA looking for gold, the landowners would see the south as lucrative, with tobacco, cotton and sugar, making that region more lucrative.
Bandeirantes are not something Portuguese, but Brazilian. Created in the colony through the miscegenation of the first settlers with the natives. The colony might have something similar, but the nation's economy won't have the gender imbalance to create the OTL's armies of Bandeirantes. But the Portuguese will have explorers in the region (probably local).
So, it could become like the US in long run? Would it become an industrial powerhouse?
The short answer is no, OTL USA was created with very specific characteristics. Now the nation can be an industrial power in the long run if it makes the right decisions, but not a powerhouse. I think that in this TL the new world will not have an industrial superpower in the 18-19th century like in the OTL. Maybe the power that controls the missisipe in north america or the french colony (in the south using the Plata basin to distribute products) but probably none of them will have the insane speed of the usa.
 
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Excellent topic, interesting timeline. I liked the idea of a portuguese NA, and Viriato timeline about this was fantastic.

How would Terra Nova would develop in this world? Portugal was expelled from Brazil and probably will be expelled from Africa too, to sustain the slave population required to man the colony. The dutch almost expelled them from Asia, OTL, would Portugal be expelled in this one?

With Terra Nova practically as the single colony, how would it develop? In this TL, this colony will receive lots of immigrants, that went to Brazil, Africa and Asia, so the growth will be faster.

Will Terra Nova colonize the New England, Eastern Seaboard, the South and Mississipi? The Mississipi was colonized by the french early OTL, now this region is abandoned for Brazil. New England is closer to initial Terra Nova, so it will probably have an immigration push.

The Eastern Seabord and the South was populated by english, both religious people and pirates lurking for spanish gold. In Viriato TL despite being in the Iberian Union and hostile to english, the portuguese didn't expelled them. Now could it be different, with puritans going for Brazil and with only pirates remaining, with Portugal building forts around these places?

Now with OTL "brazilian founders" in Terra Nova, they would for sure send bandeiras inside NA looking for gold, the landowners would see the south as lucrative, with tobacco, cotton and sugar, making that region more lucrative.

Territory wise they could have had initially the Eastern coast to Mississipi? It was a massive violation of Tordesillas, but it was violated several times OTL, with new treaties replacing it, and Spain cared much less about NA too.

So, it could become like the US in long run? Would it become an industrial powerhouse?

It is probable that the equivalent of bandeirantes/coureurs des bois emerge simply due to the opportunities presented by the frontier. Under French rule, the coureurs de bois men sometimes of mixed background, while others simply incorporated many native ways in their own lives. The canoe, is perhaps the most significant Indian technology they adopted. This "creolisation" was something that most Portuguese colonies developed, whether it be the Pombeiros in West Africa, Prazeiros in Mozambique, Topazes in Timor etc. "Creole Societies in the Portuguese Colonial Empire" by M. D. D. Newitt and Philip J. Havik explores this topic in detail.

The reason for their development might be due to some unions between Portuguese men and native women, particularly in the early years of settlement. Their offspring, would likely be able to speak indigenous languages allowing them to trade with the natives inland. Beaver, otter, pelts, might be the most lucrative way to barter for goods from Europe. This would inevitably lead to trading posts being established in the interior, and on the frontier. It also might become the primary means of earning extra income for farmers during the long winter months, particularly for young sons. These men would likely be under little direct Portuguese control and would likely not even heard of the Treaty of Tordesillas. They will likely make it so that Portuguese control over the great lakes becomes a fait accompli.

Looking at potential immigrants, such a territory is unlikely to attract many immigrants from Portugal, at least during its first century. It's population growth is likely dependent on natural growth as it would likely gain a reputation for being cold wasteland with little of value. The result is that within a few generation the local-born people begin developing their own distinct culture, shaped by their local environment. The extreme poverty from the Azores might make it so that periodically, captains of those islands use Terra Nova as a dumping ground for the poor, particularly as the Azores are no longer available. A colony in that region of North America would only need a very small founding population to grow over time. For instance, a small founding population of around 500 in the mid-17th century with only 5,000 additional immigrants would have grown to around 750,000 to 800,000 by 1800, if the rate of natural growth had been similar to that of New France or New England. However, it is likely that once colony has around 30,000 or so inhabitants that there would a major port town that would begin to attract migrants from Portugal and such a population could easily surpass one-million. Once cities develop, immigration from Portugal is likely to increase, particularly if there are opportunities to engage in trading.

The Saint Lawrence River Valley between Quebec City and Montreal was able to sustain a population of around 500,000 dependent on farming using pre-industrial techniques and it is likely that even before that population is reached, settlers would begin pushing westward past present-day Montreal. The area between Montreal and Kingston, Ontario is likely passed over by the majority in favour of the more fertile lands westward, spilling into what is today Michigan. These would probably be sought after as they're ideal for the growing of grain, particularly wheat. The rocky soils of New England also face this problem, which makes the settlement of the region north of the Ohio River likely at some point. Settlement north of the Canadian Shield is unlikely and it is possible that England or France are able to establish trading posts there, capturing much of the lucrative fur trade in that region.

Economically, it would not be a place that would be any progenitor of the industrial revolution, with the economy likely dependent on agriculture, fishing and forestry. If technology develops similar to IOTL, by 1900 such a territory could have a population of 20 million, and 40 to 50 million by 1950. It may resemble Argentina insomuch as industralisation is spurred by foreign investment from whichever great power is the dominant financial power in this TL. More than likely it is France, though the Netherlands could remain an important source of capital. Importantly, the territory has large deposits of coal and iron ore that could with time make this territory a major world economy on the scale of present-day France.
 
@Viriato and @Kurd Gossemer gave great answers on page 2, and I made a map of what I think would be the Portuguese colony on page 1. Here is a part of @Kurd Gossemer 's answer:
So, Portugal is poorer and the dutch can concentrate more on Africa and Asia, so probably Portugal would lose these colonies faster than OTL.

Terra Nova would be a settler colony, pretty agrarian, but knowing how Portugal is, it would become a trade power.

About the map, I find unlikely that they would be limited only in these lands. They have a big population growth, making them very expansionist, looking for new lands. New France in less than a century, claimed and built lots of forts into the Mississipi-Missouri basin, and this with a smaller population. Terra Nova would just expand into these areas, just with population growth. The same with the Eastern Seaboard. The portuguese will have a century of advantage in these regions.

Maybe Portugal grab some Caribbean colonies, but they would just exploit the south.

Bandeirantes are not something Portuguese, but Brazilian. Created in the colony through the miscegenation of the first settlers with the natives. The colony might have something similar, but the nation's economy won't have the gender imbalance to create the OTL's armies of Bandeirantes. But the Portuguese will have explorers in the region (probably local).
But in this TL the people that formed Brazil is now in Terra Nova, and with a bigger population growth and the same thisty for richies. Is very possible for them to go west and find gold and exploit the south.

The short answer is no, OTL USA was created with very specific characteristics. Now the nation can be an industrial power in the long run if it makes the right decisions, but not a powerhouse. I think that in this TL the new world will not have an industrial superpower new world in the 18-19th century like in the OTL. Maybe the power that controls the missisipe in north america or the french colony (in the south using the base of Prata to distribute products) but probably none of them will have the insane speed of the usa.
Considering how was Louisiana colonization OTL, the most plausible power to colonize the Mississipi is Terra Nova. It was from Canada, into Great Lakes into these rivers basin. Is very possible for them to become an economic powerhouse. This colony is basically formed by peasants, traders and artisans, instead of the big landlords and slavers. These type of population usually have much more potential to create a developed society.
 
The Portuguese would be very unlikely to establish a colony in the Caribbean, particularly if they are so weakened that they've lost Brazil
Perhaps due to lack of economic resources, the kingdom would allow corsairs in the Caribbean to try to gain more resources? One of them would colonize an island to act as a base for the operation.
. Most Portuguese indigo imports came from India, and if they maintain a colony there, this might remain the case.
I think it's likely they have an even greater focus on India. With more strength and influence in the region to maintain this resource
If the French gain control of Northeastern Brazil and extend their holdings north of the Amazon towards the Guianas they will likely have enough land to flood the European sugar, tobacco, cacao and later coffee markets, without having to acquire holdings in the Caribbean.
I find it interesting to know how rich the nation of France and the crown will be with so many products to export to Europe (especially because unlike the Portuguese, France does not share things. So the Dutch will not be the distributors of sugar).
In the 16th century French kings had a special problem with taxation. The French kings relied on tax farmers who put any "extra" money collected into their own pockets. Only 25% of the money collected got to the king. This meant high taxes, but not enough revenue for the king to do his job properly. Not only that in 16th and 17th century France had a rising middle class unhappy because it had no political say and nobles unhappy because they had lost some of their power and authority. In addition to the problems that led to religious wars. With things in OTL only being really fixed by Louis XIII who made France becomes Europe's strongest country militarily and economically. With all this wealth, the crown will have more resources to force reforms.
What might happen, however is during times of war with Spain, French privateers (with letters of the marque) establish bases in the less inhabited islands, such as Tortuga, the Bahamas etc to attack Spanish treasure fleets. However, it is likely that powerful well-connected planters would pressure the French crown to not allow private companies to establish or tobacco producing colonies in the Antilles.
Perhaps we will have an island of French privateers whose only function is to plunder the caribbean powers (especially if, as you said, planters put pressure to prevent the production of cash crops in the caribbean, leaving piracy as the only viable economic way). Without France having a commercial reason to be friendly in the region. France may very well let the corsairs do what they like in the region as long as they pay the French crown their share. Na otl the activities of the corsairs were so profitable that the Minister of the Navy used this in his strategy to make money. Moreover, the King used to take one-quarter or even one-third of the booty. The corsairs' activities weakened France's enemies(English trade losses were very important from 1688 to 1717).

We see that with Jean d'Ango, who was among the wealthiest and most influential men in France. He was one of the first French traders to challenge the monopoly of Spain and Portugal, in addition to trading with the eastern Mediterranean, the British Isles, and the Low Countries. His fleet reached 70 ships (including merchant ships and fishing vessels). Although he funded expeditions for trade and exploration, and used his ships (legally) for wartime raids, he also sponsored voyages whose only purpose was piracy (making a lot of money from it). When John III of Portugal confiscated one of his ships which carried plunder from captured vessels, Ango received the French king's permission to respond. Acting under a letter of marque issued on 26 July 1530, he harassed the Portuguese fleet in the Atlantic, and even threatened to block the port of Lisbon. France in this period was really testing its naval power. With several interesting figures trying to break the Portuguese monopoly and colonize the new world. Besides him we have other examples like the baron of Saint Blanchard (Bertrand d'Ornesan) and the banker Madeleine Lartessuti.
The English, are the most likely to establish some sort of presence, and if the union with Scotland is butterflied away, the Scots might attempt their own trading company, as the Scots played a prominent role in the Danish West India Company, the Ostend Company and even in the French Mississippi Company, with John Law leading to the bubble of the latter.
Perhaps Scotland will try to have a colonial empire of its own. With french support maybe they will try to colonize the mississippi? That would be very interesting and unique.
 
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Looking at potential immigrants, such a territory is unlikely to attract many immigrants from Portugal, at least during its first century.
Is possible to attract immigrants, not mainly looking for riches, but poor people looking for lands, and that place has lots of it. And with the high population growth, since the early 16th century, when that colony was founded, by the mid 17th century, when these places were colonized OTL, the portuguese would have a huge advantage.

Economically, it would not be a place that would be any progenitor of the industrial revolution, with the economy likely dependent on agriculture, fishing and forestry. If technology develops similar to IOTL, by 1900 such a territory could have a population of 20 million, and 40 to 50 million by 1950. It may resemble Argentina insomuch as industralisation is spurred by foreign investment from whichever great power is the dominant financial power in this TL. More than likely it is France, though the Netherlands could remain an important source of capital. Importantly, the territory has large deposits of coal and iron ore that could with time make this territory a major world economy on the scale of present-day France.
It wouldn't be a progenitor of the industrial revolution, but it has a big potential for industrialization, at least compared with OTL portuguese colonies, like Brazil.
 
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