AHC/WI: French Brazil, Portuguese Canada

[TheWitheredStriker]

IOTL, Portugal briefly flirted with colonizing eastern Canada (Newfoundland & Labrador, Nova Scotia), while France attempted to take Brazil in the 1550's. I'm planning out a TL where I basically swap France and Portugal around: France gets Brazil, successfully throwing out the Portuguese, and as cliché as it might be, dumps its Huguenots there. Portugal, in the meantime, focuses on Canada and makes it a settler colony.

A quote I found in another Novaterra thread:

The Portuguese picked a poor spot to settle. Had Fagundes chosen a better site than Sable Island, the colony could have grown. Even if it had mostly been cod fishermen, the price of salted cod began rising in the early 1520's and by the 1540's was 2.5 times of what it had been earlier in the century. By the 1550's, the price of cod once gain doubled before going back to its 1540's level. This alone would have brought prosperity to any permanent settlement.

This is what makes me think a Portuguese "Novaterra" could have succeeded.

Now, some questions. Obviously, Portugal needs to colonize Canada while also not destroying France Antarctique. How could I accomplish this? Would a bigger Portuguese focus in Canada inherently make them less interested in Brazil? IIRC, Brazil was originally unprofitable and caused the Portuguese many headaches, so who knows, maybe success in Novaterra could make the Portuguese lose their interest in Brazil? Just a thought. Later, there needs to be a concerted effort from the French government to colonize and exploit Brazil. It's unlikely to succeed because of Huguenot adventurers alone. With Metropolitan France behind it, though, I feel like it could work. Especially if they reach Minhas Geraias, which IIRC has a crapton of gold.

As for the next thing – I unfortunately completely forgot what thread I found this on, and I searched for hours yet still couldn't find it. So you'll just have to take my word here when I say that I've stumbled upon a thread here where forum members said that if France expanded in South America, then it would be much more hostile to Spain, which would lead to the Spanish Habsburgs not wanting/trying to get a Bourbon prince on the throne. After all, they'd enter union with their main colonial rival in South America. Is this a plausible outcome? Or would the War of the Spanish Succession still happen the way it did?

 

[Taunay]

There's a great TL by @Viriato about this, and it says that Portuguese North America would end up expanding and end up something like this:

Maybe it could be even bigger than in that TL as Portugal wouldn't be focused on colonizing Brazil

 

[John I of Brazil]

This is what makes me think a Portuguese "Novaterra" could have succeeded.

"Terra Nova" would make more sense as a name in Portuguese, though it would probably be substituted by a proper name later on , like how "Terra de Santa Cruz" (Land of the Holy Cross) became Brazil.

IIRC, Brazil was originally unprofitable and caused the Portuguese many headaches, so who knows, maybe success in Novaterra could make the Portuguese lose their interest in Brazil?

Well, in terms of profitability, Canada is actually worse when it comes to profitability. When the portuguese managed to actually get a good hold in Brazil, they got riches like sugarcane and, later, gold and other precious ore. Meanwhile, wasn't Canada called "a few acres of snow" by the french?

I think the best way for the scenario would be for other powers, like France, to grab Brazil first, while Portugal is still focused in African and Asian trade and/or in some kind of continental trouble.

 

[holycookie]

think the best way for the scenario would be for other powers, like France, to grab Brazil first, while Portugal is still focused in African and Asian trade and/or in some kind of continental trouble.

Perhaps a union with Spain earlier, or simply luck (this always impacts almost ABS Senarios like the Wind destroying the Spanish Armada)

 

[Gabingston]

"Terra Nova" would make more sense as a name in Portuguese, though it would probably be substituted by a proper name later on , like how "Terra de Santa Cruz" (Land of the Holy Cross) became Brazil.



Well, in terms of profitability, Canada is actually worse when it comes to profitability. When the portuguese managed to actually get a good hold in Brazil, they got riches like sugarcane and, later, gold and other precious ore. Meanwhile, wasn't Canada called "a few acres of snow" by the french?

I think the best way for the scenario would be for other powers, like France, to grab Brazil first, while Portugal is still focused in African and Asian trade and/or in some kind of continental trouble.

Labrador, maybe? A Latin or Greek name like Boreal(i)a, Hperborea or Septentrion(i)a could also work.

 

[Viriato]

Labrador, maybe? A Latin or Greek name like Boreal(i)a, Hperborea or Septentrion(i)a could also work.

The official name was Terra Nova dos Bacalhaus I imagine Terra Nova, Terra dos Corte Reais or even Lavrador could be used in different contexts. Newfoundland is still called Terra Nova to this day, and from contemporary documents seems to be the most commonly used. Below is a Portuguese map which shows it as Terra Nova do Lavrador.

What is significant is that unlike in South America, the Spanish were only too willing to allow the Portuguese claims to be much further west than the Tordesillas Line (admittedly it was difficult to calculate during the 16th century) with the area around present-day Quebec city being more or less the dividing line.

 

[Aluma]

So @holycookie's ideal world?
I mean just have Spain be created by a union between Portugal & Castille and it's perfect!

 

[holycookie]

So @holycookie's ideal world?
I mean just have Spain be created by a union between Portugal & Castille and it's perfect!

I don't know if it's my ideal world, but I have a soft spot for TL with colonial France considering how badly the country fared in this matter. I really like stories centered on Iberia (Christian or Muslim), Italy and France. As well as the colonial period for its impact on the world. It is the era of the rise of European dominance in the Indian Ocean (with Portugal), it is the beginning of the colonization of the new world (with simple changes changing centuries of history) not to mention that it is the era of religious reform.

 

[holycookie]

The official name was Terra Nova dos Bacalhaus I imagine Terra Nova, Terra dos Corte Reais or even Lavrador could be used in different contexts. Newfoundland is still called Terra Nova to this day, and from contemporary documents seems to be the most commonly used. Below is a Portuguese map which shows it as Terra Nova do Lavrador.

Terra nova or something along those lines. Perhaps a name of a very popular saint in Portugal in the period

What is significant is that unlike in South America, the Spanish were only too willing to allow the Portuguese claims to be much further west than the Tordesillas Line (admittedly it was difficult to calculate during the 16th century) with the area around present-day Quebec city being more or less the dividing line.

I think it's likely that the Portuguese arrived in the New England region as well. As a whole, the problem of the Portuguese will be the English in the future as neighbors.

I would say around 1600 this would be the Portuguese colonial empire in America. At least the one really controlled by portugal and not just the claim. (Maybe portugal will try to grab a little more of the carribean or the greenland)

I would say that south america considering the size of the population of france would be something along these lines.With the colony expanding and developing faster than brazil (Depending, the gold rush can start earlier in the colony). With the region of the Plata Basin becoming a war zone between the Navy and Spanish soldiers against the French bandeirantes and corsairs (perhaps with support from the metropolis or in the form of expeditions funded by the private sector). How Spain will react to its silver ore flow zone becoming a war zone I do not know. They may try to find another, safer route or fight to maintain control of the region.

Well, in terms of profitability, Canada is actually worse when it comes to profitability. When the portuguese managed to actually get a good hold in Brazil, they got riches like sugarcane and, later, gold and other precious ore. Meanwhile, wasn't Canada called "a few acres of snow" by the french?

I think in the short term Canada is more valuable due to the Cod. its high value. In the long run, Brazil is more valuable. Newfoundland is a great region to produce sailors and ships so we can have for example a portugal that is stronger in the navy but not as rich. Not to mention that portugal will expand into the fertile areas of north america (how much of north america will be portuguese i dont know but it will probably be the new england region).

 

[Mar-e-chal]

Would the English still settle America,and if so,where?

 

[AltoRegnant]

Would the English still settle America,and if so,where?

englands' pattern of settlement probably won't change, honestly. canada wasn't a profit, and even if the ports of new england no longer exist, that doesn't change that Englands' real money makers were in the south... and even that was the b-list of the profit in the new world

 

[holycookie]

Would the English still settle America,and if so,where?

If I had to guess I would say in the American south from +- maryland (or virginia) to the louisiana region. Spreading deeper into North America through control of the Mississippi Basin (will look weird on the map for us). Maybe trying to conquer more of the caribbean (places like haiti for example).

I would say that the caribbean would be something along these lines with england trying to conquer as much of the region as possible in the long run. Probably with england trying to conquer cuba (but failing). i think that due to england having less competition in the caribbean (with france focusing on south america) england will be able to better focus on spain. What can also is the opposite and due to the lack of pressure from France, Spain manages to do better against England by holding several of these islands.
Situation in the Caribbean in the 18th century.

 

[Viriato]

It is not guaranteed that the English will settle in New England and it is important to note that initially the Puritans studied the possibility of settling in Guiana and in North America were intending to settle on the Delaware River. A French Brazil does not mean an end to the Anglo-French Rivalry and it is possible that this rivalry takes place in South America, rather than in North America or the West Indies. New England might be seen as marginal territory and even if an English settlement comparable to the Popham Colony were established it might be seen as being too close to a Portuguese territory which might have 15,000 to 20,000 settlers so close by. Also, it is likely that a Portuguese North American colony would thrive mainly on a subsistence economy as Portugal was far from the fur trade. The cod fisheries of course would be important, and it is likely that Portugal and not England becomes the main supplier to Southern Europe. Perhaps grain exports could even help alleviate metropolitan Portugal's chronic shortfalls, eventually turning away from Baltic Imports. At some point, timber might be seen as important, but it seems that the lumber in the region was prone to rot, so if India is not lost, the Portuguese navy might still prefer the hardwoods of northern India for its ships.

If a settlement occurs in North America becasue João Álvares Fagundes founds colony, the best site to settle would probably be along the fertile coastl lands of present-day Nova Scotia's Annapolis Valley. A small founding population could grow exponentially and a century later number around 20,000. By that time, they would have likely began spreading into the Saint John River Valley, onto the Isthmus of Chignecto and from there have begun settling present-day Prince Edward Island. This would involve a scenario where the Portuguese crown largely ignores the territory, with very few immigrants after the initial decade. It is also likely that settlers would eventually spread southwards along the coast of present-day Maine, and from there down to Cape Cod and further south if no other European power has colonised that region.

If instead the basis of settlement is a result of an action to counter the French in the 1540s, then it is likely that the mouth of Saint Lawrence becomes the site of a for with settlement on what is today the Île d'Orléans or Quebec City. This is likely followed by the sending a dozen Jesuits to the region to evangelise the natives. Additionally, a fort is likely built on the Avalon Peninsula of Newfoundland though the poor soils in the region might mean that settlers are few, and only a small military garrison and fishing station is present for the next century. Also, what is today Halifax might eventually be seen as a good location due to the fine large natural harbour, particularly as it remains ice-free year round. Within a century, the population would spread along the Saint Lawrence River Valley and a century later into the Great Lakes Basin and likely along the Northern Ohio River Valley.

It is likely that the Portuguese Crown ignores the region around Hudson Bay and it might fall to another power because of Portugal's lack of a fur industry. What became Rupert's Land had some of the most valuable furs and the watershed of the Saint Lawrence River likely becomes the northern boundary of Portuguese America. The English, French or Dutch (if they become independent) are likely contenders here, with Antwerp having been the hub of the European fur trade.

The region of North America under Portuguese rule would likely remain rural in character and as long as farmland is available, largely self-sufficient. The Portuguese crown probably pays little attention until the population reaches 100,000. In a scenario where Fagundes' colony marks the first settlement around 1520, such a milestone would not be reached for 150 years, and even then its economic value would be eclipsed by that of the Atlantic Islands. As a result of the region's ideal conditions exponential population growth occurs so that by 1735 there could be 500,000 settlers. By 1765, the 1 million mark is reached with no more than 10,000 immigrants having settled the territory over the span of two centuries. By 1800, such a population could easily reach 2.5 million, being similar to OTL Brazil's and by 1825 approaching the 5 million mark, meaning it would have surpassed Portugal's. At that point the sheer size of the population would make it one of the most important markets for Portuguese exports such as wine and other manufactured goods. This might make Lisbon to try to impose strict mercantilist policies onto what hitherto had been a largely ignored region, and probably the site of smuggling with foreign fishing ships. IOTL after the 1850s both Quebec and Atlantic Canada experienced a huge upsurge in emigration to the United States due to lack of available land or job opportunities. By the 1780s, this Portuguese America might face such as crisis, and coupled with the a metropolitan government attempting to squeeze more revenue from this colony, could lead to rebellion. If another power such as England or France establishes a more economically developed region to the south (as they did in New England), it likely starts receiving large numbers of people from Portuguese America seeking jobs as farm labourers and later as factory workers.

If a settlement begins in the 1540s as a result of crown intervention, it is probably seen as a huge folly within a few years. However, if the population survives, the colony is relegated to secondary importance if India, Brazil and Africa are threatened a foreign power. The positive is region's apparent worthlessness might make it safe from serious foreign attacks allowing its inhabitants to thrive economically. The likely route of territorial expansion likely makes it way down the Saint Lawrence and into the Great Lakes at a faster pace than the Fagundes scenario. However, conflict likely arises if a hostile foreign power settles the Albany River Valley and Lake Champlain might be the site of a battle. The same is true later on with the Upper Mississippi, as little crown authority means that the descendants of early settlers will push inland in search of lands or even fur pelts to trade with foreigners along the coast. It is very likely that there would be Portuguese equivalents of the "coureurs des bois".

 

[Mar-e-chal]

If I had to guess I would say in the American south from +- maryland (or virginia) to the louisiana region. Spreading deeper into North America through control of the Mississippi Basin (will look weird on the map for us). Maybe trying to conquer more of the caribbean (places like haiti for example).

Where would the quakers and puritans settle?

 

[holycookie]

Where would the quakers and puritans settle?

That's a good question, maybe virginia considering its closer proximity or considering how quirky they are they might go somewhere like the cape if the uk controls the region.

 

[Viriato]

Where would the quakers and puritans settle?

With such a significant butterfly event as the French pushing the Portuguese out of Brazil the effects of Europe would be dramatic, there might not be any Puritan refugees. It is entirely possible that an English monarch imposes a more Calvinist form of Christianity as Scotland did, or there is the possibility that Guiana which or the mouth of the Amazon are chosen as those were sites that appealed the English. This of course could the be catalyst for rival French and English colonies warring with one another.

 

[holycookie]

A French Brazil does not mean an end to the Anglo-French Rivalry and it is possible that this rivalry takes place in South America

That's true, but it's a matter of fact that in otl england only started to really try to colonize after the Tutors left power +1600. This greatly limits England's areas of colonization, especially in South America with France and Spain fighting over the continent. A good part of north america is unowned making it the ideal place for england to try to colonize. Not to mention that it's close to the Portuguese colony which in theory can assist the British due to their alliance (Although I think the relationship between the UK and Portugal will sour in the long run)

it is likely that a Portuguese North American colony The cod fisheries of course would be important, and it is likely that Portugal and not England becomes the main supplier to Southern Europe. Perhaps grain exports could even help alleviate metropolitan Portugal's chronic shortfalls, eventually turning away from Baltic Imports. At some point, timber might be seen as important, but it seems that the lumber in the region was prone to rot, so if India is not lost, the Portuguese navy might still prefer the hardwoods of northern India for its ships.

Yep, the colony will probably have three main economies Cod, wood and grain.

It is likely that the Portuguese Crown ignores the region around Hudson Bay and it might fall to another power because of Portugal's lack of a fur industry.

this is likely, but not impossible for colonists to produce in the colony itself. Or due to the needs of the coonia portugal does not develop a fur industry.

The region of North America under Portuguese rule would likely remain rural in character and as long as farmland is available, largely self-sufficient. The Portuguese crown probably pays little attention until the population reaches 100,000.

I would say this will depend on the birth rate and death rate of the colonists could be between 1650 and 1700.

By 1800, such a population could easily reach 2.5 million, being similar to OTL Brazil's and by 1825 approaching the 5 million mark, meaning it would have surpassed Portugal's.

Brazil in 1800 had 3.6 M already being superior to portugal in population. Portugal in 1800 had +-2.9 M so the colony will be almost the same in POP , depending on the strength of the colony, portugal will be forced to either give the colony more independence (making a dominion or a kingdom) or risk losing its imperial colony

 

[holycookie]

there is the possibility that Guiana which or the mouth of the Amazon are chosen as those were sites that appealed the English. This of course could the be catalyst for rival French and English colonies warring with one another.

if they go to that region they are probably dead or will not grow in population (especially if they don't mix with the local population.). The entrance to the amazon basin is not an area to live in the period(or for the next few centuries), being controlled by a set of forts.

 

[Viriato]

Brazil in 1800 had 3.6 M already being superior to portugal in population. Portugal in 100 had +-2.9 M so the colony will be almost the same in POP , depending on the strength of the colony, portugal will be forced to either give the colony more independence (making a dominion or a kingdom) or risk losing its imperial colony

Not necessarily, this is assuming that history will play out exactly as it did IOTL. The successful American Revolution was a catalyst for many revolutionary movements, and even that drew on the experiences of the Glorious Revolution for inspiration. Additionally, in colonial Brazil there was a wealthy elite that was able to educate its children at the University of Coimbra. A Portuguese North America likely resembles French North America with most settlers being comfortable, but illiterate with little specie to trade to send their children abroad to learn. If a rebellion does occur it might be more similar to the peasant revolts of Europe. If the Ohio River Valley can be secured, however, I imagine the rush of emigration to this land could keep the region politically stable for another half-century.

Regarding the population growth, for my figures I based them on those of New England, French Acadia and New France. The availability of new land meant that couples tended to marry much younger than the European counterparts and a high TFR was around 8.0 was maintained, despite the large number of deaths due to childbirth, men often remarried very quickly thereafter. Additionally, the lack of significant urban settlements or villages tended to ensure that there epidemics occurred, but not widespread pandemics.

 

[Viriato]

if they go to that region they are probably dead or will not grow in population (especially if they don't mix with the local population.). The entrance to the amazon basin is not an area to live in the period(or for the next few centuries), being controlled by a set of forts.

True, but Europeans were not aware of the dangers of parasites and mosquito-born infections at the time. A few years I read a pamphlet from the early 17th century describing the luxuriant vegetation as a new Garden of Eden. The Cape of Good Hope itself was even seen as a barren place where nothing would grow to the lack of trees. In 1763, the French crown sponsored 12,000 Europeans (French and Germans) to settle French Guiana with the hopes of establishing a great settler colony and 8,000 perished during the first year. William Courteen Jr. also chose Madagascar was also the site of an early Puritan colony as it too was seen to offer great potential, sending 145 men women and children to Saint-Augustin Bay in 1644, hoping to replicate the success of Virginia, however starvation and disease led to its abandonment in 1646. A second attempt to establish a Puritan colony on Assada (Nosy Be) in 1650 was abandoned within a few months, for much the same reasons.

Finally, there is also the Providence Island Colony in the Caribbean, I recommend Tom Feiling's book the rival Mayflower Colony: "The Island that Disappeared: The Lost History of the Mayflower's Sister Ship and Its Rival Puritan Colony".

The Puritans were successful in New England, as their numbers greatly multiplied, but without such luck their settlements might have become just a footnote in history. Much as Fagundes' colony in Nova Scotia is today.