Additionally, in colonial Brazil there was a wealthy elite that was able to educate its children at the University of Coimbra. A Portuguese North America likely resembles French North America with most settlers being comfortable, but illiterate with little specie to trade to send their children abroad to learn. If a rebellion does occur it might be more similar to the peasant revolts of Europe.
That's something I didn't consider, the literature of the colony. I imagined that due to the large production of cod, wood and grain the colony would have an elite that while not as rich as the Brazilian would be rich enough to send their children to universities.
. William Courteen Jr. also chose Madagascar was also the site of an early Puritan colony as it too was seen to offer great potential, sending 145 men women and children to Saint-Augustin Bay in 1644, hoping to replicate the success of Virginia, however starvation and disease led to its abandonment in 1646. A second attempt to establish a Puritan colony on Assada (Nosy Be) in 1650 was abandoned within a few months, for much the same reasons.
I think that the most likely to happen with a colony in the amazon, now in South Africa they have a better chance of working.
 
That's something I didn't consider, the literature of the colony. I imagined that due to the large production of cod, wood and grain the colony would have an elite that while not as rich as the Brazilian would be rich enough to send their children to universities.

Not likely, none of those activities generated large fortunes, the larger fishing fleets tended to be based in Europe, what fishing existed in the region was on a smaller scale, and tended to be restricted to the coasts. In New England fishing fleets and merchant trade did emerge, but this was in large part due to the merchants' ability to trade with the West Indies early on. Grain in New France and Acadia was grown mostly by yeoman farmers, and was typically bartered for other goods as silver and gold was always sparse in North America, and even taxes and tithes were likely to be paid in the form of crops, or in the form of labour, such as helping build roads or clear land. The elite in a Portuguese North America would likely consist of the governors/captains, their families, military commanders, church officials and perhaps a handful or small-scale merchants in a port like Quebec. In French Acadia, there were noteworthy French merchants until after Louisbourg was constructed, as a result most small scale trade was carried out with New England by merchants from Boston and Salem. Once Louisbourg was built and the French retreated to Cape Breton Island, the territory did manage to export flour and grain to the West Indies, but it's value too was rather low when compared with the overall colonial trade. It's role as a colonial garrison city, however did stimulate a far larger trading volume with France than Acadia had ever had.

When looking at New France, the settlers there consumed far less sugar than their European counterparts by the 18th century, and though some was imported, consumption was averaged around 1kg per person per year just prior to the British conquest. Wine, however seemed to be plentiful and was the preferred "luxury" import that most habitants acquired from France. Sugar was imported from the West Indies, but it seems that maple sugar soon became preferred due to its lower price. Even salted cod was not as common as one would assume. Though most were strict Catholics never consuming meat on Fridays and during Lent, eel and trout were the most common substitutes away from the sea, with sturgeon and turbot along the coasts. In Acadia, lobster, oysters, mussels and clams predominated.

One of the interesting things that I discovered when studying the evolution of the French colonies was that though many of the first settlers arrived they were more likely to be literate, than the overall French population a large number came from towns and cities. With the passing of generations, their children and grandchildren were often not. By studying the signatures of marriage contracts, it becomes apparent that by the time of the British conquest, New France's literacy rate was lower than France's. In Acadia, literacy had declined even further, so that by the time of the deportation, the vast majority were not literate. Many settlers likely felt that reading was not a necessary skill to fell trees, plough fields or trap furs. Often parish priests were the only literate individuals in some villages, acting as notaries, scribes and purveyors of news from afar. By 1750-1765 the number of individuals who could sign their names in New France's rural parishes was just above 10%, with that rate increasing to around 40% in the towns of Quebec, Montreal and Trois Rivieres. The colony itself was mainly rural in character, and the overall literacy rate was around 25%. In France around 1750, the literacy rate was around 40%. By the mid-18th century the literacy rate in Portugal was just around 5%, reaching 21% by the year 1900. If Portuguese North America were colonised by Portugal, the overall literacy rate would likely be around 1%. The few schools might be a seminary in the capital, and a convent for nuns, these might help educate the sons and daughters of a very limited elite, with a very small number sending their children off to Lisbon or Coimbra to study.

In New England at the same time an estimated 85% of the adult population was literate, with two universities by 1750, and two more by 1770, whereas Portugal only had a single university until 1911. This is significant, because by 1750 it had allowed New England to develop a much more sophisticated merchant economy based on trade, despite its meagre resources. Additionally, it allowed manufacturing to develop, with Boston, Salem, Newport, New Haven and Portsmouth all having merchant fleets engaged in far-flung trading. Without large-scale capital formation or an educated population, Portuguese North America will likely resemble a peasant economy with goods produced locally and no large scale industries, at least until it is influenced by foreign merchants. This will likely impede not only the access to capital, but the creation of any large fortunes. Not necessarily a negative thing, because in Brazil massive fortunes and land holdings were confined to a small number of families. In Portuguese North America, there will likely be more economic equality as it is likely that most families will own their own land, be able to provide adquate shelter. Also, unlike their European counterparts their landholdings will provide them with self-sufficiency by being able to hunt wild game, and have enough lumber to cook, heat with and craft furniture. During the first two and a half centuries, most will likely have enough of a surplus of goods to barter some for wine, tools or textiles and ribbons.

It is also important to compare the overall economic value of extractive colonies in terms of trade, to those in North America. I have found some figures on the decade prior to the Seven Years War, converting all the amounts into Portuguese contos. New France exported an average of 1.5 million livres of goods each year, the most valuable being fur pelts, with a value of 402 contos in Portuguese currency. During the same period, Brazil exported an annual average of 14,260 contos in value of goods, nearly 35 times greater than New France. Even after subtracting gold, the value of sugar, tobacco, cotton and other goods exported by Portuguese Brazil was still nearly 20 times greater than New France's exports. The French West Indies too exported far more in goods than New France, Acadia or Louisiana with sugar and molasses being the principal exports with an annual average value of 5,800 contos per year. Even in cod, France imported around from North America, or some 1,000 contos (3.5 million livres) each year, but these were by French fisherman operating from French Atlantic ports.

I had to edit this response due to incorrect calculations between the value of the Portuguese conto compared to French livre turnois and British Pound. Additionally, I wanted to add the value of British cod exports from Newfoundland to Portugal and Spain in 1748 being worth 672 contos, while Boston and Salem based vessels exported an additional 69 contos worth. to Portugal Spain and the islands.
 
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Overall French population a large number came from towns and cities. With the passing of generations, their children and grandchildren were often not. By studying the signatures of marriage contracts, it becomes apparent that by the time of the British conquest, New France's literacy rate was lower than France's If Portuguese North America were colonised by Portugal, the overall literacy rate would likely be around 1%.
Portuguese North America will likely resemble a peasant economy with goods produced locally and no large scale industries, at least until it is influenced by foreign merchants. This will likely impede not only the access to capital, but the creation of any large fortunes.
How do you think the literation of the French colony (Brazil) would be in the long term? Bigger than otl brazil, same or less? And in relation to the economy, how will France change with the riches of Brazil and vice versa?
New France exported an average of 1.5 million livres of goods each year, the most valuable being fur pelts, with a value of 402 contos in Portuguese currency. During the same period, Brazil exported an annual average of 14,260 contos in value of goods, nearly 35 times greater than New France. Even after subtracting gold, the value of sugar, tobacco, cotton and other goods exported by Portuguese Brazil was still nearly 20 times greater than New France's exports.
I knew that colonial Brazil exported a lot but 35 times more is ridiculous.
 
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How do you think the liberation of the French colony (Brazil) would be in the long term? Bigger than otl brazil, same or less? And in relation to the economy, how will France change with the riches of Brazil and vice versa?

There are so many possibilities with a POD where French colonisation is successful. One important thing that would probably need to occur is for direct intervention of the French crown in such a venture merchants/corsairs lacked the capital to take on the Portuguese navy. This would require a large direct investment on a scale that the French kings would not undertake until the reign of Louis XIV. For that reason, an earlier Iberian Union would definitely be a good option as it leads to a direct conflict between France and Portugal. By the mid-16th century, the Portuguese royal family was running low on male heirs and it is entirely possible with an earlier POD where King João III despite having 9 children was predeceased by all of them. João Manuel was very sickly and could die before having a child at 16 or his son Sebastian is a stillbirth or dies young. With the only other direct male heir of Manuel I being Duarte, Duke of Guimarães, there is a chance he will die young and a chance that the Portuguese throne will pass to Philip II of Spain. If there is a union, this might mean a war between France and the Habsburgs and there is a possibility that France is allied with the Ottomans, Venice and perhaps England and if the POD occurs in the 1540s, Protestant rebels in the Holy Roman Empire. Such a war or series of wars makes it so that the French crown now finances offensive naval actions against the Portuguese Navy and its domains.

Depending on how well the French navy succeeds against the Portuguese, it might mean that colonial expansion and trade occupies a much more prominent role in the French monarchy. If they go big in India, there's a good chance that the spice monopoly is broken and France could begin reaping a windfall of profits as the Dutch did IOTL. Regarding Brazil, rather than establish a colony in Rio de Janeiro, it is likely that the richest captaincies are targeted, these being Pernambuco and Bahia. There is a good chance that the French kings would use this revenue to centralise the French state, and undertake wars of expansion against neighbouring states. A France that becomes too powerful too quickly, particularly if its king is aiding Scotland, probably makes the English change sides in the conflict. While Anglo-French rivalry is not something preordained, it had been a constant for generations, and it is likely that it will continue at some point and that it will spillover to Brazil. English traders were very interested in the region, particularly around the mouth of the Amazon, and perhaps it is the English that found a colony in Maranhão rather than the French and use it to attack the French. Like the Dutch the French will likely turn their focus northwards as this area was seen as more promising than what is today southern Brazil.

If the French do take Rio de Janeiro, it could lead to inland expansion and eventual discoveries of the gold mines, when this occurs is hard to say, but Northeastern Brazil might become the economic hub of the colony. France does have the benefit of a larger internal market, and its sugar, rum and molasses production might be far greater than the region produced under Portuguese rule, and Amsterdam might not become the sugar refining hub of Europe. There is a good chance that the sugar from Brazil is refined in France and reexported throughout the Low Countries, Germany and the Mediterranean (much as French West Indian sugar was in the 18th century). Tobacco, would likely also be produced on a large scale and much of it bartered for slaves in Africa. The French were active in trading on the Pepper Coast during the 16th century, and if they are unable to take Mina from the Portuguese, this area might become a major slave importing region, with a permanent French presence eventually being established. If gold and diamonds are discovered, the French crown is able to consolidate its power further.

In France, the Atlantic ports are likely to become larger than they did IOTL with Nantes and Bordeaux being the main benefactors. The colony itself might attract French fortune seekers, but it's hard to say how many. Additionally, immigration is probably strictly controlled, as the French crown would probably be loathe to allow "vagrants" to settle. However, convicts like debtors or those who avoided the "gabelle" (salt tax) are likely brought to the colony. Without Brazil, there might not be an immediate need to establish a colony in the Lesser Antilles or Hispaniola, as Brazil probably produces enough sugar and tobacco. I actually believe that the colony might have a much smaller white minority than IOTL Brazil or Cuba did, resembling more Saint-Domingue on a larger scale, with perhaps only one-fourth of the population being free. For the French state such an imbalance works in the favour. White minorities outnumbered by slaves tended to remain more loyal to and look to the mother country to protect them from large slave uprisings. Conversely, the higher the slave to free ratio, the more common slave revolts became.

It is also worth noting that colonial dominance might last much longer as a French Brazil is much more economically dependent on France than it was on Portugal by 1808. France likely remains the most populous country in Europe with a huge internal market and a much stronger army and navy than Portugal's. For that reason, they are able to maintain an effective blockade on any rebellious colony. Unlike Portugal, France is also a major cultural centre in Europe and the colonial elite might want to continue to embrace their "French" identity in much the same way that many Australians and Anglo-Canadians embraced their Britishness until the 1960s. Being a part of the French Empire is certainly likely to carry more prestige than the Spanish or Portuguese did in 1808.
 
Personally a French Brazil has always been a TL I wanted to do(just need to read a couple of books about Early Brazilian colonization and France and it's workings during the Late Valois and Early Bourbon Eras) so I have some ideas about how it can turn out.

As Viriato said, Portuguese North America would be very much like The Azores before they became overpopulated: Not much literacy because it's not necessary to dos something like ploughing a field or cutting a tree, plenty of land available means dowry are not as important and thus people marry earlier and have more kids, a more rural population means diseases don't kill as many people due to people not being crammed into cities with poor sanitation as well as more food around means better resistance. The fact that the colony immediately wouldn't give gold like Mexico and Peru did for Spain means that it would basically grow on a mixture of natural birthrates(which would've been very high given frontier places have a higher one) as well as the occasional peasant, city dweller and family going there as the products the colony could offer would be revenue from taxes, from merchants selling their goods like Porto wine and eastern objects to the elites of the colony and from stuff like food and timber(which would've at least avoid famines in Portugal and high quality wood for their navy.) as the Portuguese would continue their focus on The Indies, East Asia and India itself, we might see them in wars with the Dutch over trading posts and strategic places in Asia since they wouldn't have Brazil to occupy their time, internal reforms are likely to come and sticky around too, especially given the Portuguese wouldn't have the golds and diamonds that allowed them to ignore the flaws in their system and would need to be more practical with their resources, this ironically leaves them in a better position compared to OTL with a more modernized state apparatus, bigger presence in Asia, presence in Africa that would expand given the advantages trading with them would give as well as a decent empire in North America and maybe a island in the Caribbean to compensate the fact they don't have Brazil.

Now for France and Brazil, with the French completely occupying the colony there would've been a reorganization of how the colony functions given the Hereditary Capitanies would've still been in place, so most likely a central government would've been established in the colony, most likely Salvador given it was easily the richest city in the area as well as it's proximity towards the Sugar plantations, to better control the colony and regulate what's coming in and what's coming out, while sugar was still the main lifeblood of the colony, cattle had also been introduced as well as tobacco even if the latter would've been grow in small quantities at first, Sao Vincente so far was only known for wheat production as well as native slave trade that would be gradually sidelined by African slaves and of course, there's the Bandeiras going on as they and their native allies map out the Sertao(name for the unknown unmapped interior) and search the place for stuff like gold and other precious stones, that would've give the French authorities some good sources about where to expand and a rough idea of how the interior looked like and it wouldn't cost them much given the great majority of Bandeiras was of private groups funding themselves. As for settlers, it was true France was stricter than England and especially Portugal but there would've still been a very large amount of people going to the colonies, either those seeking to making a fortune or seeking land in places like Sao Vincente and Rio given the "healthier airs" for Europeans especially further south, what would've further encouraged migration towards those lands as cattle helps out the settlers into moving and colonizing the areas, with the biggest example being the Guerra dos Barbaros/War of the Barbarians where due to encroachment of their lands due to cattle expanding into the interior, several native tribes rose up in rebellion and after some decades were basically wiped out and solidified colonial control of the interior.

Now for the two big things: Spanish response and Gold and Diamonds rush from Minas Gerais.

Simply put, the Spaniards would've shit themselves seeing their biggest enemy having such a huge colony near their very precious Peru but the problem is that outside of a direct invasion, they don't have a easy route where to invade, being stopped by the Amazon rainforest in the north, by the swamps in the Paraguay region and by the sheer distance from Buenos Aires towards Sao Vincente. So while they'll legally protest using stuff like the treaty of Tordesilhas, they don't have much they can do to try and stop French expansion outside of trying to better populate the region, although given how they were even stricter than everyone else in letting people settle there it would've been difficult to do so, not to mention the often lack of money.

The Gold rush in Minas Gerais is where we'll probably see things really pick up, by that point, we could expect that due France's way larger population compared to Portugal that even with a lesser percentage of people goin there, it would still be a lot more than Portugal could have there, that also means a more mulatto country given the majority of immigrants would've been single young man either looking for land or seeking fortune, so a Brazil with bigger borders is very likely. With the discovery of gold and diamonds the French who would've already been very controlling of the colony would've gotten even more controlling to ensure that the precious minerals filled the coffers of the French state, so while there would be a boom of migration there(not only of people wanting gold but also merchants who would profit from selling everything like food and clothing and slaves and who were the actual powers of Minas Gerais) as well of slaves, religious orders would've been forbidden to settle as well stuff like the quinto(one fifth of every gold extracted would've gone to the state as taxes) to ensure that even if they don't directly control all the mines they're already profiting from it. The general boom of migration would've seen French Brazil expand even further, so expect them to move into Guyana and clash with the Spaniards over who control Buenos Aires.

As for the changes in Europe, Portugal would've stayed mostly like OTL, aloof from the concerns there and focused on themselves and Asia. As for France, like Viriato mentioned, Brazil would've given them enough revenue for the crown to centralize better as well as forced them to fund the navy in order to protect their commerce with Brazil. I think the most looked forward event here is the War of Spanish succession, like OP said, it's most likely Carlos II choses the Habsburgs instead of the Bourbons, the difference here is that with at least 20 years of gold and diamonds flowing into French coffers as well as over a century of centralization, The French are doing much better in the war and even if they don't get a Bourbon in Spain, they would be strong enough to essentially redraw the map of Europe(assuming their increased wealth, lack of protestants due to them being forced into Brazil and more central states they haven't already done stuff like captured Milan and/or The Low Countries), so even if Austria, England and Spain manage to keep a Anti French Block with those countries plus the HRE, it would've still been a French Victory as they would've done everything to dismember the Spanish Empire if they can't have it and those 3 countries wouldn't be strong enough to contain this mega France, especially Britain wouldn't have a advantage of navy like OTL nor a chance to industrialize earlier given the lack of Gold they got from Portugal, meaning that with bigger and richer cities, it's more likely France is the ones who lead into industry, especially if they continue their bellicose ways against their neighbors.
 
I think the most looked forward event here is the War of Spanish succession, like OP said, it's most likely Carlos II choses the Habsburgs instead of the Bourbons
I keep on seeing references to major events that occurred IOTL being brought up and it's important to realise that something as seismic as a French Brazil in the 16th century would alter most of the major events thereafter, including wars, along with kings and princes, when they are born and when they die. Admittedly, in my earlier timelines my own laziness and lack of creativity made me simply have events occur as IOTL. I do believe it is important to research the cause and effect of events. However, a French Brazil and the actions needed to achieve such a goal would create immense butterflies shortly thereafter. For instance, if a POD takes place in 1544 or 1545 Charles II de Valois might be elsewhere and not enter a house with the plague, and is able to live longer with the possibility that one of his descendants inherit the French throne. The extinction of the House of Valois itself was somewhat of a fluke and the Bourbons might never come to power.

With regards to Spain, the extinction of the male branch of the Spanish Habsburgs as a result of their never ending consanguineous marriages made it so that few offspring were surviving into their adulthood, however because women can inherit the throne of Castile, it is very possible that the line carries on past 1700. That being said, King Sebastian of Portugal possessed a higher inbreeding coefficient than King Carlos II of Spain, so it is possible that a healthy enough adult can be born in place of Carlos II. His sister, Margaret Theresa for instance was not necessarily a beauty, but was apparently intelligent, and was able to sire a daughter.

Additionally, for a scenario where the French control southern Brazil the best POD would be one in the 1560s where the King of France decides to build up a formidable navy and enter a formal war against Portugal reinforcing Rio de Janeiro with French marines and eventually gobbling up the entirety of the territory through conquest. However, with such a late POD it is unlikely that the Portuguese would make an attempt at Canada, as now they would be defending their empire from hostile interlopers, and the last time they seemed to take any serious notice of Terra Nova was during Cartier's voyages. Early French brazilwood trading was centered around northeastern Brazil, as French traders had visited what became Salvador as early as 1504, and in 1531 destroyed a Portuguese trading factory in Pernambuco and built their own, the move southwards by the French traders after 1550 to what is today Rio de Janeiro seems to have been a direct result of the Portuguese having established a stronger presence in northeastern Brazil.
 
Hey Viratio and Kurd, I wanted to take the time real quick to thank both of you for your extremely detailed responses. They're incredibly helpful and I highly appreciate the effort and detailed analysis! Godspeed =)
 
I keep on seeing references to major events that occurred IOTL being brought up and it's important to realise that something as seismic as a French Brazil in the 16th century would alter most of the major events thereafter, including wars, along with kings and princes, when they are born and when they die. Admittedly, in my earlier timelines my own laziness and lack of creativity made me simply have events occur as IOTL. I do believe it is important to research the cause and effect of events. However, a French Brazil and the actions needed to achieve such a goal would create immense butterflies shortly thereafter. For instance, if a POD takes place in 1544 or 1545 Charles II de Valois might be elsewhere and not enter a house with the plague, and is able to live longer with the possibility that one of his descendants inherit the French throne. The extinction of the House of Valois itself was somewhat of a fluke and the Bourbons might never come to power.

With regards to Spain, the extinction of the male branch of the Spanish Habsburgs as a result of their never ending consanguineous marriages made it so that few offspring were surviving into their adulthood, however because women can inherit the throne of Castile, it is very possible that the line carries on past 1700. That being said, King Sebastian of Portugal possessed a higher inbreeding coefficient than King Carlos II of Spain, so it is possible that a healthy enough adult can be born in place of Carlos II. His sister, Margaret Theresa for instance was not necessarily a beauty, but was apparently intelligent, and was able to sire a daughter.

Additionally, for a scenario where the French control southern Brazil the best POD would be one in the 1560s where the King of France decides to build up a formidable navy and enter a formal war against Portugal reinforcing Rio de Janeiro with French marines and eventually gobbling up the entirety of the territory through conquest. However, with such a late POD it is unlikely that the Portuguese would make an attempt at Canada, as now they would be defending their empire from hostile interlopers, and the last time they seemed to take any serious notice of Terra Nova was during Cartier's voyages. Early French brazilwood trading was centered around northeastern Brazil, as French traders had visited what became Salvador as early as 1504, and in 1531 destroyed a Portuguese trading factory in Pernambuco and built their own, the move southwards by the French traders after 1550 to what is today Rio de Janeiro seems to have been a direct result of the Portuguese having established a stronger presence in northeastern Brazil.
Indeed, even the earlier money from Brazil would've put France in a better position economically and politically, as the cash would be used to fund any wars as well as strengthening the power of the crown, already something like that could tip the scales in favor of France in their numerous wars against the Habsburgs.

And speaking of changes, OP mentioned Hugenots being dumped in Brazil, this would have two major effects: first is throwing away a population that brought much instability to France, so avoiding the religious wars by maintaining a tolerant position towards the Hugenots as well as letting them go into Brazil would do much in keeping France strong and powerful and in better position to exploit the already fragile Spanish Empire. The second factor is the presence of Hugenots and Catholics in Brazil means a more religiously diverse colony as well as more conflict between the two groups, and given that a good deal of Hugenots were nobles who were very much against the centralization of the realm and most focused on the south of France, I could see the Hugenots being a minority, the largest minority religious wise and definitely a powerful group, but still a minority to a Catholic majority.
 
Indeed, even the earlier money from Brazil would've put France in a better position economically and politically, as the cash would be used to fund any wars as well as strengthening the power of the crown, already something like that could tip the scales in favor of France in their numerous wars against the Habsburgs.
it also allows france to carry out reforms without suffering so much or having serious economic downturns. And prevents france from ignoring its navy creating a good naval culture for nation.
And speaking of changes, OP mentioned Hugenots being dumped in Brazil, this would have two major effects: first is throwing away a population that brought much instability to France, so avoiding the religious wars by maintaining a tolerant position towards the Hugenots as well as letting them go into Brazil would do much in keeping France strong and powerful and in better position to exploit the already fragile Spanish Empire.
France lost 2 to 4 million people in the wars of religion. Additionally, the conflict severely damaged the power of the French monarchy. So in addition to south america's resources that allow earlier centralization the lack of war keeps the government from collapsing and having to basically centralize france again. The amount of Protestants in France was very large, about 10% (or +- 2 million, pre religious war). I don't know if all these people would go to Brazil, but given the opportunity, I think that a part (something around 30% to 50% of the 2M) would go to the colony over decades. With Protestants being a minority in the nation (+-6% of the population) with this immigration not having the strength to clash with Paris.

With the French central government using banishment to the colony as a way to remove troublesome nobles (or anyone) from the nation (be they Catholic or Protestant). I think the first nobles to feel this new form of punishment will be the Hugenot nobles who were against the centralization of the realm, so the colony will have an aristocracy from an early age. In addition, the king can use the carrot and stick tactic. While they are being expelled from the metropolis they could leave with most of the monetary wealth (excepting of course a slight tax for the royal house something around 10%) in the colony were they could practice their religion without persecution in addition to being able to make a lot of money more than they can imagine. With production of things like sugar, cattle, drugs from the Sertão, brazilwood, precious minerals (like gold and diamonds) and if they conquer the pampas (a high production of grains like wheat and a bigger boom in livestock)

Not only that how the king can allow them to participate in the merchant marine in the colony, in building infrastructure (probably using slaves) and in the production of ships. In OTL during the 16th century In Colonial Brazil, the bad economic situation of Portugal, allied to the lack of interest in the application of resources for the development of a colony that did not seem to provide the imagined financial return, led to a very precarious system of land routes. Connections between captaincies were made by sea, in long and dangerous journeys, using a wide range of vessels. Much because of this factor, the captaincies developed around seaports. Despite this, not even this single transport solution received large investments from the Crown for its expansion. Portugal only directed resources towards fortification works, against invaders. I don't think France will do it, So the colony will probably have better land paths. The first European-type vessels were built in Rio de Janeiro in 1531. Over time, small shipyards were built on the edge of Guanabara Bay. Coastal and aquatic trade was carried out through the following vessels: brigantines, galleys, faluas, alvarengas, sloops, barges and canoes. In the 17th century, Brazil would have built the largest ship in the world, according to reports in the Portuguese newspaper Mercúrio Português. Salvador Correia de Sá e Benevides had the galleon Padre Eterno built at the tip of Ilha do Governador (still in Guanabara Bay). The construction of large ships in Rio was consolidated with a frigate factory, managed by Sebastião Lamberto. So the colony has great potential as a secondary shipyard for France
The second factor is the presence of Hugenots and Catholics in Brazil means a more religiously diverse colony as well as more conflict between the two groups,, I could see the Hugenots being a minority, the largest minority religious wise and definitely a powerful group, but still a minority to a Catholic majority.
I would put the number of Protestants somewhere between 15% to 30% of the colony's population.
 
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it also allows france to carry out reforms without suffering so much or having serious economic downturns. And prevents france from ignoring its navy creating a good naval culture for nation.

France lost 2 to 4 million people in the wars of religion. Additionally, the conflict severely damaged the power of the French monarchy. So in addition to south america's refusal to allow earlier centralization the lack of war, but also allows the government not to collapse having to basically centralize france again. France lost 2 to 4 million people in the wars of religion. Additionally, the conflict severely damaged the power of the French monarchy. So in addition to south america's refusal to allow earlier centralization the lack of war, but also allows the government not to collapse having to basically centralize france again. The amount of Protestants in France was very large, about 10% (or +- 2 million, pre religious war). I don't know if all these people would go to Brazil, but given the opportunity, I think that a part (something around 30% to 50% of the 2M) would go to the colony over decades. With Protestants being a minority in the nation (+-6% of the population) with this immigration not having the strength to clash with Paris.

With the French central government using banishment to the colony as a way to remove troublesome nobles (or anyone) from the nation (be they Catholic or Protestant). I think the first nobles to feel this new form of punishment will be the Hugenot nobles who were against the centralization of the realm, so the colony will have an aristocracy from an early age. In addition, the king can use the carrot and stick tactic. While they are being expelled from the metropolis they could leave with most of the monetary wealth (excepting of course a slight tax for the royal house something around 10%) in the colony were they could practice their religion without persecution in addition to being able to make a lot of money more than they can imagine. With production of things like sugar, cattle, drugs from the Sertão, brazilwood, precious minerals (like gold and diamonds) and if they conquer the pampas (a high production of grains like wheat and a bigger boom in livestock)

Not only that how the king can allow them to participate in the merchant marine in the colony, in building infrastructure (probably using slaves) and in the production of ships. In OTL during the 16th century In Colonial Brazil, the bad economic situation of Portugal, allied to the lack of interest in the application of resources for the development of a colony that did not seem to provide the imagined financial return, led to a very precarious system of land routes. Connections between captaincies were made by sea, in long and dangerous journeys, using a wide range of vessels. Much because of this factor, the captaincies developed around seaports. Despite this, not even this single transport solution received large investments from the Crown for its expansion. Portugal only directed resources towards fortification works, against invaders. I don't think France will do it, So the colony will probably have better land paths. The first European-type vessels were built in Rio de Janeiro in 1531. Over time, small shipyards were built on the edge of Guanabara Bay. Coastal and aquatic trade was carried out through the following vessels: brigantines, galleys, faluas, alvarengas, sloops, barges and canoes. In the 17th century, Brazil would have built the largest ship in the world, according to reports in the Portuguese newspaper Mercúrio Português. Salvador Correia de Sá e Benevides had the galleon Padre Eterno built at the tip of Ilha do Governador (still in Guanabara Bay). The construction of large ships in Rio was consolidated with a frigate factory, managed by Sebastião Lamberto. So the colony has great potential as a secondary shipyard for France

I would put the number of Protestants somewhere between 15% to 30% of the colony's population.
If this colonization butterflies the Iguape War, settlement of Southern Brazil is 10 years ahead, which could mean that this French Brazil would have many more lands in the La Plata basin
 
If this colonization butterflies the Iguape War, settlement of Southern Brazil is 10 years ahead, which could mean that this French Brazil would have many more lands in the La Plata basin
the issue in my opinion is less whether the colony will have more of the la plata basin and more whether the colony will conquer the basin as a whole. portugal sent in the 16th century 0.045% of the population to the colony (45 thousand) a minuscule and very mediocre immigration compared to the numbers sent to asia. If France sends a worse number than Portugal (half of Portuguese immigration, something around 0.023% of the population) the number will be around 320 thousand.
 
it also allows france to carry out reforms without suffering so much or having serious economic downturns. And prevents france from ignoring its navy creating a good naval culture for nation.

France lost 2 to 4 million people in the wars of religion. Additionally, the conflict severely damaged the power of the French monarchy. So in addition to south america's refusal to allow earlier centralization the lack of war, but also allows the government not to collapse having to basically centralize france again. France lost 2 to 4 million people in the wars of religion. Additionally, the conflict severely damaged the power of the French monarchy. So in addition to south america's refusal to allow earlier centralization the lack of war, but also allows the government not to collapse having to basically centralize france again. The amount of Protestants in France was very large, about 10% (or +- 2 million, pre religious war). I don't know if all these people would go to Brazil, but given the opportunity, I think that a part (something around 30% to 50% of the 2M) would go to the colony over decades. With Protestants being a minority in the nation (+-6% of the population) with this immigration not having the strength to clash with Paris.

With the French central government using banishment to the colony as a way to remove troublesome nobles (or anyone) from the nation (be they Catholic or Protestant). I think the first nobles to feel this new form of punishment will be the Hugenot nobles who were against the centralization of the realm, so the colony will have an aristocracy from an early age. In addition, the king can use the carrot and stick tactic. While they are being expelled from the metropolis they could leave with most of the monetary wealth (excepting of course a slight tax for the royal house something around 10%) in the colony were they could practice their religion without persecution in addition to being able to make a lot of money more than they can imagine. With production of things like sugar, cattle, drugs from the Sertão, brazilwood, precious minerals (like gold and diamonds) and if they conquer the pampas (a high production of grains like wheat and a bigger boom in livestock)

Not only that how the king can allow them to participate in the merchant marine in the colony, in building infrastructure (probably using slaves) and in the production of ships. In OTL during the 16th century In Colonial Brazil, the bad economic situation of Portugal, allied to the lack of interest in the application of resources for the development of a colony that did not seem to provide the imagined financial return, led to a very precarious system of land routes. Connections between captaincies were made by sea, in long and dangerous journeys, using a wide range of vessels. Much because of this factor, the captaincies developed around seaports. Despite this, not even this single transport solution received large investments from the Crown for its expansion. Portugal only directed resources towards fortification works, against invaders. I don't think France will do it, So the colony will probably have better land paths. The first European-type vessels were built in Rio de Janeiro in 1531. Over time, small shipyards were built on the edge of Guanabara Bay. Coastal and aquatic trade was carried out through the following vessels: brigantines, galleys, faluas, alvarengas, sloops, barges and canoes. In the 17th century, Brazil would have built the largest ship in the world, according to reports in the Portuguese newspaper Mercúrio Português. Salvador Correia de Sá e Benevides had the galleon Padre Eterno built at the tip of Ilha do Governador (still in Guanabara Bay). The construction of large ships in Rio was consolidated with a frigate factory, managed by Sebastião Lamberto. So the colony has great potential as a secondary shipyard for France

I would put the number of Protestants somewhere between 15% to 30% of the colony's population.
Indeed and with a bigger population early on, French Brazil would already secure control of important rivers in South America, the Amazon(which would make them the masters of the rainforest and give contact with the natives living there), the Plata(allowing smuggling of silver and gold in exchange for Brazilian and French goods) and the Parana River(which allows for incursions into Paraguay and Bolivia as well as more ilegall trade) and as mentioned before, Spain simply wouldn't have the strength to resist French expansion against their colonies, Mostly in La Plata/OTL Uruguay, Argentina, Paraguay and Bolivia, especially as they don't go trough the Bourbon reforms and take a while more to fix themselves, which of course other powers will just use the opportunity to further chip away at the Empire, either in Europe(France probably trying something like claiming Catalonia, Navarre and the Balearic Islands or moving into Italy to expel the Spaniards out of Sicily, Sardinia and Naples) or in the Americas(The Caribbean especially would be vulnerable and with a way stronger France, they would probably love the idea of snatching away something like Cuba or Santo Domingo)

This has another aspect too: with a powerful navy, strong position back home and colonies in the Americas, France would definitely have footholds in Africa(most likely Nigeria and Congo regions) as well as expanding into India(which given they had numerous success there alongside a bigger Portuguese presence, France will be the leading titan in the region) meanwhile the East Indies/Indonesia will be a battlefield of Dutch, Portuguese, British, Spanish and French interests, so instead of a united Indonesia we'll see multiple islands under the control of multiple powers, with some being larger than the others and China and Japan would definitely be targets of French interests as they seek to tap into those markets and get direct access to the silk and tea trade.
 
the issue in my opinion is less whether the colony will have more of the la plata basin and more whether the colony will conquer the basin as a whole. portugal sent in the 16th century 0.045% of the population to the colony (45 thousand) a minuscule and very mediocre immigration compared to the numbers sent to asia. If France sends a worse number than Portugal (half of Portuguese immigration, something around 0.023% of the population) the number will be around 320 thousand.
Exactly, like I mentioned, even with a more restrictive immigration policy from France, there will still be so many people settling in(especially during the gold and diamonds rush) that the borders are going to be bigger and way more secure due to the sheer amount of immigrants living there and the Spanish wouldn't have the money and people to halt that flow
 
the Spanish wouldn't have the money and people to halt that flow
One area that will be important for the colony is slaves, so we will have a presence in africa much earlier. Between congo and nigeria I think it's more likely that they will get a foot in nigeria considering that congo already has strong bases from portugal.
 
I'm thinking about how england will develop in this world. Not only in the world but at home. It will be an England that has much more competitors in the world. So I don't know if they are going to be more conservative than in the OTL or a more aggressive one.
 
This is a great map of the expansion in south america and maybe it will help to have a north in the french expansion in south america.
1678061561758.png
 
I was thinking about what @Viriato said about more restricted immigration from france than from portugal. ( france had more liberal rules than spanish, but it was more restricted than english). As I told @Taunay the size of the French population compensates for the smaller percentage of the total population immigrating. In OTL the first century of colonization (16th century) saw an immigration of 4.5% of the population to the colony (giving 45 thousand immigrants to the colony), in the second (17th century) it saw an immigration of 5% of the population to the colony (giving 55 thousand immigrants to the colony). Totaling 100 thousand immigrants in two centuries, with the total population of the colony being three times the size of the immigration due to natural growth, the immigrants and of course the slaves (giving 300 thousand POP for colony in the year 1700).

If France has a very restricted immigration and of little interest in the first centuries (no Protestants immigrants or refugees from the religious wars. Nothing in that sense going to the colony) the immigration will probably be half of the Portuguese immigration. So respectively 2.3% in the 16th century, and 2.5% in the 17th century, this will give 365 thousand immigrants in the first century and 536 thousand immigrants in the second century. If the colony had a 3X growth as occurred with the Portuguese colony, the population of the colony in the year 1700 is around 2.7 million people (accounting for natural growth, immigration and slaves) with 900 thousand immigrants in 2 centuries (9 times bigger than Portugal). So the colony will have a population comparable to otl Sweden.

If France has the same immigration rate as Portugal (remembered in these two centuries the imigrantion was very small with Portugal focusing heavily on Asia. it is possible that the percentage that portugal sent to the colony is similar to the percentage sent by france ). With an immigration of 4.5% in the 16th century the colony receives 730 thousand immigrants, in the 17th century the colony would have an immigration of 5% receiving 858 thousand people. Totaling 1.5 million immigrants in 2 centuries with the total population being 4.7 million (without the gold fever having occurred yet). In this case, the colony would have the 15th largest population in the world, being larger than Morocco but smaller than Vietnam in population. (OTL Portuguese empire had 3.8 million people in the period). Despite all that a colony with a population of 4.7 million in the year 1700 is not insane considering that OTL New Spain had 4.5 million at the same time (with refugees from problems such as religious wars or protesters being expelled I would guess that the population would be at least 5 million people and at most 7 million).

Regarding the gold fever it is difficult to say, in otl the population in 100 years the colony had a 12 times increase in size (with the colony going from 300 thousand to 3.6 million). With Portugal sending 30% of its population to the colony and it would have been more if Portugal had not basically barred immigration for fear of having a greater depopulation.
 
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One cannot assume that immigration patterns and population growth will be the same as it was IOTL, as there were many variables. Additionally, there needs to be a large pull factor for immigrants, and while gold works well for a period, the French crown might be more efficient in exhausting the gold mines than the Portuguese crown was. Before and after the gold boom, the number of migrants coming from Portugal was much smaller with perhaps 200,000 before 1700 and after 1760. A large number of early settlers were convicts known as degredados, or convicted deportees, and made up perhaps one-fourth of these. In "Convicts and Orphans - Forced and State-Sponsored Colonizers in the Portuguese Empire, 1550-1755" Timothy Coates mentions how looking at church and state records, some 50,000 were sent from the British Isles to the New World between 1607 and 1775, whereas Portugal with a smaller population sent approximately the same number. During the same period, the total number of European migrants France equaled, meaning that fewer convicts were exiled to the New World by the French crown than in England or Portugal, and far fewer when one looks proportionately.

It is also significant that with the exception of Southern Brazil after the 18th century, the majority of Portuguese settled in urban areas, namely cities and towns, and experienced higher mortality rates much higher than the few who settled in rural areas. Urban areas were breeding grounds for diseases, and this was the case in Europe too, with the tropical mosquito-borne parasites being particularly significant. Throughout the colonial period, there were epidemics that spread throughout the cities, with both the Portuguese and Dutch authorities recording various fevers. Between 1500 and 1700 the most common estimate seems to have been that 100,000 Europeans migrated to Brazil, with slave disembarkation numbers varying from 500,000 to 945,000 according to slavevoyage.org. However, by 1700 the population in Portuguese-administered areas had only reached 300,000, meaning that the overall population growth was negative.

During the 1700-1760 period, estimates of the number of Portuguese arriving in Brazil range from 300,000 to 600,000. In "Formação econômica do Brasil" (1971), Brazilian economist Celso Furtado estimated the number to be between 300,000 to 500,000. British historian C. R. Boxer considers these numbers to be inflated and estimated the number of Portuguese immigrants during the 1700-1760 period to have numbered between 3,000 and 4,000 per year. By 1808, Brazil's population was estimated to be around 4 million. However, this includes Indians in regions claimed by Portugal with very little effective administration. The number of people areas directly under Portuguese administration was just under 2,424,463 by 1808, of those 754,000 were slaves. During the 1700-1808 period nearly 2.5 million slaves were imported to Brazil, and during the 1760-1807 period some 250,000 to 700,000 Portuguese migrated to the Brazil, with the latter numbers being more difficult to verify. Going by the the lowest immigration estimates, the "white" population would have grown by 1.1% per annum during the 1700-1808 period, whereas the highest estimate would mean that the white population continued to experience a negative rate of growth.
 
One cannot assume that immigration patterns and population growth will be the same as it was IOTL, as there were many variables.
Yes, there are several variables, but they serve as a good guide for us to find an approximate one. Or simply understand how development will occur
Additionally, there needs to be a large pull factor for immigrants, and while gold works well for a period, the French crown might be more efficient in exhausting the gold mines than the Portuguese crown was.
The French crown will also be more efficient in producing sugar and extracting other riches from the colony.
Before and after the gold boom, the number of migrants coming from Portugal was much smaller with perhaps 200,000 before 1700 and after 1760. During the same period, the total number of European migrants France equaled, meaning that fewer convicts were exiled to the New World by the French crown than in England or Portugal, and far fewer when one looks proportionately.
As a whole, Portugal sent from 1500 to 1700, 100 thousand people to the colony therefore an average of 500 people per year. To be exact 450 per year in the 16th century and 550 per year in the 1st century. With the total for the first century being 45 thousand immigrants and in the second being 55 thousand. With the mass of immigrants really coming with the gold boom. Regarding French immigration, as you yourself said, it will not follow the otl with the Portuguese colony in North America, having little immigration (one much smaller number than what otl portugal sent to brazil). Fewer convicts were exiled to the New World by the French crown than in England or Portugal, but this is due to lack of incentive while Portugal had an incentive to send people to the colony in OTL.
Between 1500 and 1700 the most common estimate seems to have been that 100,000 Europeans migrated to Brazil, with slave disembarkation numbers varying from 500,000 to 945,000 according to slavevoyage.org. However, by 1700 the population in Portuguese-administered areas had only reached 300,000, meaning that the overall population growth was negative.
What this does indicate is the fact that the colony was consuming slaves at an insane rate. If we look at the growth rate of cities in the northeast they grow naturally (of free people).Pernambuco goes from 1 thousand inhabitants to 2 thousand inhabitants in 20 years . Bahia from 1.1 thousand inhabitants to 1.5 thousand in the same time. Some have a minuscule growth rate as a porto seguro that goes from 220 to 290 people. But as a whole the free population grew, the one that didn't grow naturally was that of slaves. From 1600 to 1660 the white population (basically free people) increased from 30 to 74 thousand.
The vast majority of slaves either had no children or lived a long time. So if you consider the slaves in terms of growth, the colony has a very negative growth. If you consider whites and mix the growth is positive with the population more than doubling in 60 years.
During the 1700-1760 period, estimates of the number of Portuguese arriving in Brazil range from 300,000 to 600,000. In "Formação econômica do Brasil" (1971), Brazilian economist Celso Furtado estimated the number to be between 300,000 to 500,000. British historian C. R. Boxer considers these numbers to be inflated and estimated the number of Portuguese immigrants during the 1700-1760 period to have numbered between 3,000 and 4,000 per year.
Immigration data from both the Brazilian government and the Portuguese government give a total of 600,000 immigration with an average of 10 million per year from 1701 to 1760. Data disputes will occur as in this case with English claims that the number is inflated. But as a whole considering that the number has remained unchanged to this day in both nations tends to indicate that the number is right. With a drop in immigration that occurred after the gold rush, passing to an average of 2,666 per year from 1808 to 1817. And after that, immigration only returned to the thousands in 1856.
By 1808, Brazil's population was estimated to be around 4 million.
Giorgio Mortara says that there are 4,051,000 and Humboldt says that there are 4,000,000 inhabitants in the nation
However, this includes Indians in regions claimed by Portugal with very little effective administration.
if you only count the population that portugal controls the rate will be small because portugal mainly controls the cities not the interior. The same happens if you do this for example with the Russian Empire
The number of people areas directly under Portuguese administration was just under 2,424,463 by 1808, of those 754,000 were slaves.
This data, if I'm not mistaken, is from Statistical Memory of the Empire in Brazil?
During the 1700-1808 period nearly 2.5 million slaves were imported to Brazil, and during the 1760-1807 period some 250,000 to 700,000 Portuguese migrated to the Brazil, with the latter numbers being more difficult to verify.
According to official data from 1808 to 1817 we have 24,000 going to the colony, from 1827 to 1829 we have 2,004, from 1837 to 1841 we have 629 and finally immigration increases again from 1856 to 1857 with a total of 16,108 immigrants. As a whole, the non-slave population has a positive growth, sometimes very small and sometimes larger. With the white population fluctuating depending on the gender balance of the colony. With the growth in the mixed population to the detriment of whites occurring for a number of reasons (with immigrants often being men who marry native or black women due to gender imbalance).

the first real population survey that was well done only came in 1872, with emperor dom pedro II. The 1872 Census found almost 10 million people in the country (more precisely, 9,930,478). According to the count made in the Second Reign, there were 1.5 million enslaved people (15% of the population) in the national territory, including Africans and Brazilians. This was the only census carried out during slavery. Of the total population, 58% were declared black or brown, 38% appeared as white and 4% were described as indigenous. Brazil was almost entirely Catholic (99.7%) and mostly illiterate (82% of the population aged 6 and over).
 
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