AHC: France does not fall, but Pearl Harbor still happens

[Nightingale]

I started a thread a few months ago about some World War II stuff I forgot already, but one thing I remember was that if France does not fall, Japan won't declare war on the US because Indochina doesn't fall, etc.

Now the challenge here is that France does not fall [*1] but Japan still initiates Pearl Harbor.

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[*1] The typical answer is @pdf27's "A Blunted Sickle". Please provide other creative ways to make this happen.

 

[Mister Abbadon]

Without France out of the picture Hitler might not feel as secure in his position, and by extension not declare war on the US after they declare war on Japan, after all theyve got their own fight going on and dont have time to waste on a marginal ally on the other side of the world.

The Roosevelt administration will still be dedicated towards war with Germany, so they may end up violating the peace or pulling a "Im not touching you" until the Germans attack them so they have an excuse. By this time the japanese will either be beaten or so close to it as to not matter. With fewer wins the Germans might surrender, at least once Hitler is removed by the armed forces.

 

[Anarch King of Dipsodes]

I started a thread a few months ago about some World War II stuff I forgot already, but one thing I remember was that if France does not fall, Japan won't declare war on the US because Indochina doesn't fall, etc.

Now the challenge here is that France does not fall [*1] but Japan still initiates Pearl Harbor.

--------------------

[*1] The typical answer is @pdf27's "A Blunted Sickle". Please provide other creative ways to make this happen.

The minimum condition here is that France is not conquered by Germany (or anybody else). Now, what other constraints apply? Does Germany still have to be a Nazi state ruled by Hitler, which makes a deal with the USSR, conquers Poland in 1939, is at war with France and Britain from 1939, and attacks France in 1940?

Is the only permitted PoD that Germany does not conquer France in 1940? Does Japan have to attack Pearl Harbor in December 1941?

 

[Nightingale]

The minimum condition here is that France is not conquered by Germany (or anybody else). Now, what other constraints apply? Does Germany still have to be a Nazi state ruled by Hitler, which makes a deal with the USSR, conquers Poland in 1939, is at war with France and Britain from 1939, and attacks France in 1940?

Is the only permitted PoD that Germany does not conquer France in 1940? Does Japan have to attack Pearl Harbor in December 1941?

Yes, Germany must still be ruled by the Nazis under Hitler, the Germans and Soviets still gang up on Poland, and is indeed at war with France and Britain by 1940 and attacks France by 1940.

Yes, you have to make a scenario in which Nazi Germany does not conquer France in 1940, so a slugfest ensues.

And yes, you must have Japan attack Pearl Harbor in December 1941 given the above situation.

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

Here is the sequence of key political events that led to Japan attacking the US/Britain/DEI/et al:

1. Sino Japanese War 1937>

2. US Japanese tensions over this war & Japans economic policy in occupied China. 1937>

3. US minor sanctions vs japan

4. Continuation of US Japan arms race 1938 - 41

5. Japan occupies French Indo China with German blessing. France is not allowed by Germany to defend its colony. Autum 1940-Spring 1941

6. US & Britain organize sever economic sanctions vs Japan from Spring of 1941. Sanctions are suffcient to destroy Japans economy and war making ability in 12-15 months.

7. Negotiations between the US and Japan breakdown Summer 1941-September

Item #5 is the key here. Without Germany preventing a French defense of Indo China it is not practical for Japan to occupy it. That eliminates US economic sanctions - the Embargo Acts, and leaves Japan with no reason to attack the US. Later the US may still sanction Japan in some way that leads to war, but without the occupation of Indo China the US anti Japan factions have no support in the summer of 41. Eventually such a cause may emerge, but with no major other PoD previous to mid 1941 there is nothing to ramp up tensions.

One such change is Japans leaders become so clueless they do attempt war with France over Indo China in the autum of 1940. That imeadiatly includes Britain. The US may actually enter this war sooner due to simply having forces in the line of fire & astride Japans LOC.

Other PoD reach back as far as 1937. ie: Japans diplomats bungle the aftermath of the Panay incident, & other incidents ramp up tensions.

 

[Roland Traveler]

Here is the sequence of key political events that led to Japan attacking the US/Britain/DEI/et al:

1. Sino Japanese War 1937>

2. US Japanese tensions over this war & Japans economic policy in occupied China. 1937>

3. US minor sanctions vs japan

4. Continuation of US Japan arms race 1938 - 41

5. Japan occupies French Indo China with German blessing. France is not allowed by Germany to defend its colony. Autum 1940-Spring 1941

6. US & Britain organize sever economic sanctions vs Japan from Spring of 1941. Sanctions are suffcient to destroy Japans economy and war making ability in 12-15 months.

7. Negotiations between the US and Japan breakdown Summer 1941-September

Item #5 is the key here. Without Germany preventing a French defense of Indo China it is not practical for Japan to occupy it. That eliminates US economic sanctions - the Embargo Acts, and leaves Japan with no reason to attack the US. Later the US may still sanction Japan in some way that leads to war, but without the occupation of Indo China the US anti Japan factions have no support in the summer of 41. Eventually such a cause may emerge, but with no major other PoD previous to mid 1941 there is nothing to ramp up tensions.

One such change is Japans leaders become so clueless they do attempt war with France over Indo China in the autum of 1940. That imeadiatly includes Britain. The US may actually enter this war sooner due to simply having forces in the line of fire & astride Japans LOC.

Other PoD reach back as far as 1937. ie: Japans diplomats bungle the aftermath of the Panay incident, & other incidents ramp up tensions.

Now I'm interested. Were the Japanese diplomats as crazy as the military? I'd imagine not if they weren't the ones starting incidents constantly.

 

[Matteo]

Now I'm interested. Were the Japanese diplomats as crazy as the military? I'd imagine not if they weren't the ones starting incidents constantly.

They were not. They went to war against the US because they felt and indeed were cornered by the US.

Now, the most important effect of a not-falling France is going to be with the USSR.

It would be totally crazy for Hitler to attack the USSR if Germany is unable to defeat France. And Hitler was not that crazy. But he would anyway be unable to prevent the USSR attacking Germany by 1942 or 1943. And in this case, would Germany be able to lead a crushing counter-attack as It led crushing attacks in OTL Barbarossa ? It is not impossible but I doubt it.

 

[John Farson]

A Japanese attack on PH in a TL where France does not fall likely occurs at a time where Germany is on the ropes against the Anglo-French and their allies, meaning that the US doesn't even need to declare war on Germany and can devote all their resources against Japan instead.

And a Japan that declares war on the US is very likely also a Japan that attacks the European possessions in SE Asia in order to acquire the resources needed to continue their war in China, which was always their main geopolitical aim

 

[NOMISYRRUC]

France not falling in 1940 is a swarm of butterflies.

Does Italy still come into the war if France doesn't fall? Or is there some last minute miracle after Mussolini declares war?

Either way a massive difference is made to the naval war in the North Atlantic and Mediterranean. The Germans will be unable to sink as many British merchant ships because they won't be using bases on the Atlantic coast of France from June 1940. The Royal Navy's losses will be less severe and it still has the support of the French Navy. This means more ships will be available for the Eastern Fleet.

Similarly there is no Battle of Britain and a less severe Blitz because the Luftwaffe will have to fight the Armee de l' Air in France. So there is likely to be a stronger RAF Far East at the end of 1941.

OTOH if France does not fall in 1940 does Hitler still invade Greece, Yugoslavia and the USSR in 1941? Also if France does not fall does Lend Lease still happen? Will F.D.R. stand for president in the 1940 election and if he did would he be elected?

 

[Redbeard]

If it part of this ATL that French Indo China does not fall it will be extremely difficult for Japan. The Japanese clearly felt USA as the one having cornered them, but what they wanted (oil and other resources) was in European colonial possession.

Technically PH can be performed as in OTL, securing some time without heavy US interference, but without control over FIC it will be extremely difficult if not impossible to gain control over the resources in Malaya and Dutch East India. In OTL the South China Sea was dominated by Japan because of the (air)bases in FIC. Without FIC the IJN will be as vulnerable in the SCS as the OTL Force Z was.

It will of course be important how the situation is in Europe. Is the war still going on, but "just" with France intact (unlikely Hitler can survive that for long) or is it over by late 1941 or before? If it is the last the Japanese leadership might as well sharpen the knives and do what they are supposed to do if cornered.

If it is the first, they might of course hope they can win a campaign to conquer FIC, but even if they do the British and French will by that time have plenty of resources in place to successfully defend Malaya and Singapore - or even take back FIC.

If Japanese I would leave USA and PH alone and just hope I could win some initial quick victories against the Europeans, enough to get some deals about oil deliveries. But with France still in the fight I find it very unlikely that the Europeans will give in. Might have worked in the OTL scenario of France out by June 40, but in this ATL the best the Japanese can hope for is having won FIC in a bloody campaign and next have to oppose the combined might of UK, France and USA.

 

[Nightingale]

A Japanese attack on PH in a TL where France does not fall likely occurs at a time where Germany is on the ropes against the Anglo-French and their allies, meaning that the US doesn't even need to declare war on Germany and can devote all their resources against Japan instead.

And a Japan that declares war on the US is very likely also a Japan that attacks the European possessions in SE Asia in order to acquire the resources needed to continue their war in China, which was always their main geopolitical aim

So like a Japan that invades because Britain and France are preoccupied?

France not falling in 1940 is a swarm of butterflies.

Does Italy still come into the war if France doesn't fall? Or is there some last minute miracle after Mussolini declares war?

Either way a massive difference is made to the naval war in the North Atlantic and Mediterranean. The Germans will be unable to sink as many British merchant ships because they won't be using bases on the Atlantic coast of France from June 1940. The Royal Navy's losses will be less severe and it still has the support of the French Navy. This means more ships will be available for the Eastern Fleet.

Similarly there is no Battle of Britain and a less severe Blitz because the Luftwaffe will have to fight the Armee de l' Air in France. So there is likely to be a stronger RAF Far East at the end of 1941.

OTOH if France does not fall in 1940 does Hitler still invade Greece, Yugoslavia and the USSR in 1941? Also if France does not fall does Lend Lease still happen? Will F.D.R. stand for president in the 1940 election and if he did would he be elected?

Honestly, I do think FDR would still run. The DNC was from July 15 to 18, 1940, and with the brewing war in Europe, just after France fell IOTL, I think he still runs.

If it part of this ATL that French Indo China does not fall it will be extremely difficult for Japan. The Japanese clearly felt USA as the one having cornered them, but what they wanted (oil and other resources) was in European colonial possession.

Technically PH can be performed as in OTL, securing some time without heavy US interference, but without control over FIC it will be extremely difficult if not impossible to gain control over the resources in Malaya and Dutch East India. In OTL the South China Sea was dominated by Japan because of the (air)bases in FIC. Without FIC the IJN will be as vulnerable in the SCS as the OTL Force Z was.

It will of course be important how the situation is in Europe. Is the war still going on, but "just" with France intact (unlikely Hitler can survive that for long) or is it over by late 1941 or before? If it is the last the Japanese leadership might as well sharpen the knives and do what they are supposed to do if cornered.

If it is the first, they might of course hope they can win a campaign to conquer FIC, but even if they do the British and French will by that time have plenty of resources in place to successfully defend Malaya and Singapore - or even take back FIC.

If Japanese I would leave USA and PH alone and just hope I could win some initial quick victories against the Europeans, enough to get some deals about oil deliveries. But with France still in the fight I find it very unlikely that the Europeans will give in. Might have worked in the OTL scenario of France out by June 40, but in this ATL the best the Japanese can hope for is having won FIC in a bloody campaign and next have to oppose the combined might of UK, France and USA.

Please tell me more about the Philippine campaign and about the "France hanging on by a thread" scenario, this is interesting, as the Philippines AFAIK had been slowly arming by this time.

 

[John Farson]

So like a Japan that invades because Britain and France are preoccupied?



Honestly, I do think FDR would still run. The DNC was from July 15 to 18, 1940, and with the brewing war in Europe, just after France fell IOTL, I think he still runs.

Oh he'll definitely run. And win too, likely with the same margins as OTL, give or take a state or two.

 

[sloreck]

The main driving force behind the increasing US sanctions on Japan were Japanese actions in China. There were all sorts of economic actions from limitations or restrictions on various raw materials (oil, refined products, raw materials, scrap) and increasing economic sanctions such as not allowing dollar financing, etc. This was not one set in 1937 and another in 1941 but a series of increasing restrictions. If Japan does not occupy FIC because France is not supine and occupied, this may delay the final US sanctions but Japan will still be doing its thing in China. Furthermore, even before the boost in military construction and buildup, the improvements in the PI and Wake, and the ships already being built for the USN were going to cut down the ability of Japan to get the quick victory and establish the perimeter it would want.

It was a combination of the severe embargo and the relative buildup of the USN compared to the IJN that caused there to be a window for the Japanese to have a shot at getting the perimeter they wanted. Of course, with few exceptions, the Japanese military leaders were clueless that even if they got the perimeter the Americans were not going to quit.

 

[Cryhavoc101]

If France has not fallen (Swarm of Mothra's more like) then its unlikely that Italy will stick its neck out for a 'seat at the table' and will remain neutral and Benitio dies in someone elses bed

Therefore France completes its military build up and by 42 will have a massive armed force capable of matching Germany (who increasingly has to keep its eye to the east)

This takes a $%^& Ton of pressure off the UK and its unlikely that the Battle of the Atlantic will be any bit as severe as OTL - the Med is open for business etc etc

So with Europe under control and the Military industry ramping up nicely the USN about to massively expand and the US Army rapidly going from obscurity to the 2nd biggest - the US starts to flex its muscles over China and starts to massively increase the flow of equipment via FIC and Burma

Japan already mired in China see's the future in its army being bled white by an increasingly well equipped NRA (Chinese Nationalist army) and seeks to close these routes of supply

So in an act of (in their opinion) self defence - they blockade French Indo China in late 40 this leads to a series of near and then actual clashes with the USN, Marine National and RN which seek to force its merchant ships through to FIC - this results in major sanctions etc

Realising that the US population is increasingly favoring military action and that it will only be a matter of time before he USA declares war on them while they are getting weaker etc, Japanese leaders decide that they need to remove the USN's main forces from the picture Japan seeks to attack the USN main base of Pearl Harbour in order to draw out its main fleet units and then sink them in a major fleet battle (no Taranto raid/op Judgement probably butterflies away several aspects of the OTL raid ie Air dropped Torpedoes may not be used etc).

They figure that the shock will force the US to seek terms and give the Japanese 18 months to decisively deal with the 'Chinese Problem' and allow them to prepare for a resurgent USSR

 

[Nightingale]

If France has not fallen (Swarm of Mothra's more like) then its unlikely that Italy will stick its neck out for a 'seat at the table' and will remain neutral and Benitio dies in someone elses bed

Therefore France completes its military build up and by 42 will have a massive armed force capable of matching Germany (who increasingly has to keep its eye to the east)

This takes a $%^& Ton of pressure off the UK and its unlikely that the Battle of the Atlantic will be any bit as severe as OTL - the Med is open for business etc etc

So with Europe under control and the Military industry ramping up nicely the USN about to massively expand and the US Army rapidly going from obscurity to the 2nd biggest - the US starts to flex its muscles over China and starts to massively increase the flow of equipment via FIC and Burma

Japan already mired in China see's the future in its army being bled white by an increasingly well equipped NRA (Chinese Nationalist army) and seeks to close these routes of supply

So in an act of (in their opinion) self defence - they blockade French Indo China in late 40 this leads to a series of near and then actual clashes with the USN, Marine National and RN which seek to force its merchant ships through to FIC - this results in major sanctions etc

Realising that the US population is increasingly favoring military action and that it will only be a matter of time before he USA declares war on them while they are getting weaker etc, Japanese leaders decide that they need to remove the USN's main forces from the picture Japan seeks to attack the USN main base of Pearl Harbour in order to draw out its main fleet units and then sink them in a major fleet battle (no Taranto raid/op Judgement probably butterflies away several aspects of the OTL raid ie Air dropped Torpedoes may not be used etc).

They figure that the shock will force the US to seek terms and give the Japanese 18 months to decisively deal with the 'Chinese Problem' and allow them to prepare for a resurgent USSR

This caught my eye... Does the Philippines get invaded, still? How about Dutch East India and Malaya?

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

...

So with Europe under control and the Military industry ramping up nicely the USN about to massively expand and the US Army rapidly going from obscurity to the 2nd biggest....

...

This is the one point in your post I'd disagree with. While the US 1938 & 1939 budget bills ramped up military spending from their low of 1933-37 A massive build up was not considered, until France collapsed. That panicked a lot of US leaders and voters resulting in the mobilization legislation of 1940 that inducted all reservists and the National Guard into Federal service, AND handed a pair of blank checks to the War and Navy Departments. If France does not fall then additional funds will be made available to the Army due to the violent battle in Europe, but nothing on the scale of OTL. Following the 1938-39 plans the US Army active forces may have reached only 400,000 in 1942. Perhaps less. War Plan Orange as it was in the 1930s contemplated only 100,000 Army personell overseas at the end of 12 months war with Japan. As it was most of the Central Pacific offensive of 1943-44 was fought with just two corps worth of ground combat force. The bulk of the combat power in the Pacific war was in the air and the naval fleet.

Absent US participation in a European war I am estimating the US Army could remain under 2,000,000 men. That would allow for a ground combat force of 500,000 & the balance Army Air Force & Support forces. Something akin to the Two Ocean Navy Act may still occur, and the massive carrier force and fleet train would still be necessary for war with Japan.

 

[Zheng He]

If France has not fallen (Swarm of Mothra's more like) then its unlikely that Italy will stick its neck out for a 'seat at the table' and will remain neutral and Benitio dies in someone elses bed

Therefore France completes its military build up and by 42 will have a massive armed force capable of matching Germany (who increasingly has to keep its eye to the east)

This takes a $%^& Ton of pressure off the UK and its unlikely that the Battle of the Atlantic will be any bit as severe as OTL - the Med is open for business etc etc

So with Europe under control and the Military industry ramping up nicely the USN about to massively expand and the US Army rapidly going from obscurity to the 2nd biggest - the US starts to flex its muscles over China and starts to massively increase the flow of equipment via FIC and Burma

Japan already mired in China see's the future in its army being bled white by an increasingly well equipped NRA (Chinese Nationalist army) and seeks to close these routes of supply

So in an act of (in their opinion) self defence - they blockade French Indo China in late 40 this leads to a series of near and then actual clashes with the USN, Marine National and RN which seek to force its merchant ships through to FIC - this results in major sanctions etc

Realising that the US population is increasingly favoring military action and that it will only be a matter of time before he USA declares war on them while they are getting weaker etc, Japanese leaders decide that they need to remove the USN's main forces from the picture Japan seeks to attack the USN main base of Pearl Harbour in order to draw out its main fleet units and then sink them in a major fleet battle (no Taranto raid/op Judgement probably butterflies away several aspects of the OTL raid ie Air dropped Torpedoes may not be used etc).

They figure that the shock will force the US to seek terms and give the Japanese 18 months to decisively deal with the 'Chinese Problem' and allow them to prepare for a resurgent USSR

I was thinking something similar. Add in that with France and Great Britain mired in a continental slog with the Germans, the Japanese figure it is best to attack sooner rather than later. They of course believe they need to take out the US fleet as well so PH is attacked while the southern offensive kicks off.

Dang they will be in a world of hurt...

 

[Cryhavoc101]

I was thinking something similar. Add in that with France and Great Britain mired in a continental slog with the Germans, the Japanese figure it is best to attack sooner rather than later. They of course believe they need to take out the US fleet as well so PH is attacked while the southern offensive kicks off.

Dang they will be in a world of hurt...

Thailand would be interesting - with little ability for the Japanese to influence them here they would be in the Franco-British camp - allowing rail transport from Malaya all the way to FIC which is likely to be the first land Battlefield and possibly in time linking Malaya with India by rail

And with no war with Italy and Vichy France (as a result of France not falling) lots of the better Indian, ANZAC and other Empire formations can be shifted East

World of hurt indeed

This is the one point in your post I'd disagree with. While the US 1938 & 1939 budget bills ramped up military spending from their low of 1933-37 A massive build up was not considered, until France collapsed. That panicked a lot of US leaders and voters resulting in the mobilization legislation of 1940 that inducted all reservists and the National Guard into Federal service, AND handed a pair of blank checks to the War and Navy Departments. If France does not fall then additional funds will be made available to the Army due to the violent battle in Europe, but nothing on the scale of OTL. Following the 1938-39 plans the US Army active forces may have reached only 400,000 in 1942. Perhaps less. War Plan Orange as it was in the 1930s contemplated only 100,000 Army personell overseas at the end of 12 months war with Japan. As it was most of the Central Pacific offensive of 1943-44 was fought with just two corps worth of ground combat force. The bulk of the combat power in the Pacific war was in the air and the naval fleet.

Absent US participation in a European war I am estimating the US Army could remain under 2,000,000 men. That would allow for a ground combat force of 500,000 & the balance Army Air Force & Support forces. Something akin to the Two Ocean Navy Act may still occur, and the massive carrier force and fleet train would still be necessary for war with Japan.

Its a fair point Carl - but from the Japanese point of view its probable that they would be fearful of a massive increase in US Combat power driving such rash decision making.

 

[Cryhavoc101]

This caught my eye... Does the Philippines get invaded, still? How about Dutch East India and Malaya?

I would suspect that FIC gets it first and as the French and British have the potential to be stronger ITTL then its not going to be the 3 day affair of OTL and require greater assets than a single reinforced Division

 

[Archibald]

France Fights On is doing that very scenario. After many brainstormings it was decided not to change Pearl Harbor.