Sorry but Pearl Harbor would be impossible, and the Japanese would be desperate but not THAT dumb. France fighting means no threat of German invasion to Britain and Italian neutrality: No serious naval threats, so British fleets in Singapore would be way stronger, plus French and Commonwealth ships. Japan would have lost any momentum by late 1942 and utterly defeated by early 1944, just waiting for an invasion or blockade (so there's the answer for the original proposition).
But most likey, Japan frantically negotiates an orderly withdrawal from China and even joins the Allies somewhere down the road.
But most likey, Japan frantically negotiates an orderly withdrawal from China and even joins the Allies somewhere down the road.