>Protestant France
Still great update and I'm really looking forward to seeing what happens next
Still great update and I'm really looking forward to seeing what happens next
A Son of Aragon - Henry VIII's Catholic Heir
- Thread starter Direwolf22
- Start date
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- england henry 8th reformation tudor
Great update. Not much to add really it is all plausible. France going down the drain after a string of failures, the other powers around them playing the vulture and the final outcome is believable as well.
Keep up the good work and I am looking for more, hopefully with less of a wait
Thanks! Yes hopefully going to be on a weekly schedule now. Was going to do Austria next but might do Poland/Lithuania then swing back.
Very happy to have finally gotten around to reading this. I've always had a soft spot for the Huguenots and I absolutely love the alt-outcome of the Wars of Religion: a nicely plausible mix of convergence and divergence. Oh, and you let Christian II return from exile. Me likey
Cheers. Been absolutely loving your Maps btw for yours!
Thank you! I'm looking forward to more regular updates
I think most of the Danes on this forum are a fan of Christian II for some reason
I mean, how could you not?
@Direwolf22 -While I like your stories, I don't like the format of them - I would prefer shorter but more frequent entries.
That's what I'm aiming for now going forward. The France one just needed a big write up to do it justice.
Just reached the end of the last update, so far I'm really enjoying this timeline, it has taken some unexpected turns, and it's fun, frankly, it's a fun read.
I was curious on one thing, though, did the Montferrat Palaiologos still good extinct or are they still ruling Montferrat? Their Marquisate is pretty small, but having a tiny state in Italy ruled by a branch of the last Byzantine ruling dynasty is pretty funny. It's also relatively easy to butterfly away, as the penultimate Marquis fell from a horse and died at 18 in 1530.
I was curious on one thing, though, did the Montferrat Palaiologos still good extinct or are they still ruling Montferrat? Their Marquisate is pretty small, but having a tiny state in Italy ruled by a branch of the last Byzantine ruling dynasty is pretty funny. It's also relatively easy to butterfly away, as the penultimate Marquis fell from a horse and died at 18 in 1530.
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Thanks! Huh. I never knew that. You know what let's keep him alive. I might have some fun with that at some point.
Next update will be on Poland/Lithuania hopefully today but if not tomorrow.
If you keep the Marquise of Monferrat remember to change things also in Mantua: OTL https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federico_II_Gonzaga,_Duke_of_Mantua renewed his engagement to https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maria_Palaeologina and then married her sister https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Margaret_Paleologina only for their lands. If their brother https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boniface_IV,_Marquess_of_Montferrat survive, Federico will most likely marry Julia of Aragon of Naples (daughter of https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frederick_of_Naples, around 40 years old) and will be followed as Marquise (or Duke as is pretty likely who the Emperor ATL will give the upgrade as wedding gift/part of the dowry of his kinswoman Julia) of Mantua by his legitimized children by his beloved mistress https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Isabella_Boschetti (OTL they had two a son and a daughter, ATL can be more)
#16 Poland & Lithuania
Unions Old and New: Poland and Lithuania (1540-1575)
Sigismund II succeeded his father as King of Poland and Grand Duke of Lithuania in 1548. Sigismund’s father, Sigismund I “The Old”, had reigned for over forty years overseeing the gradual cemention of royal power in both Poland and Lithuania, the expansion of control over Prussia, patronage of the arts and expanded religious toleration, not only of Jews and Orthodox Christians but also later of Lutherans and the Reformed Church[1]. Sigismund II was his father’s only surviving son and had been elected heir in 1529 whilst his father still lived - encouraging a seamless succession. The only complication therefore around the succession arose around resistance to Sigismund II’s new wife, the beautiful Lithuanian Calvinist noble Barbara Radziwiłł, who he had married in secret in 1547 following the death of his first wife Elizabeth of Austria. Complaints from the Polish nobility in the 1548 Sejm almost threatened to escalate seriously but the king eventually won out by 1550 supported by Barbara’s influential relatives in the Lithuanian nobility and the matter was dropped. It all almost appeared to be a moot point regardless when now accepted Queen Barbara almost died of an illness in 1551, but she eventually recovered[2] - the couple however would remain childless.
Despite this relatively rocky start the next decade of Sigismund II’s reign would be one of relative peace and economic and cultural growth. The king oversaw the development, modernization and expansion of several palaces and castles in Poland whilst expanding his own personal collection of jewels with which he had developed quite an interest. Lacking however the political strength and authority of his father, Sigismund II’s reign would see the gradual increasing in power of the nobility especially in Lithuania. Relations between the two halves of Sigismund II’s realm were never particularly positive. The Lithuanian nobility resented what they saw as a gradual increase in Polish power and influence at their expense whilst the Poles for their part looked down on their eastern neighbours. Relations between the two groups were exasperated in 1526 as the temporary weakness of the Ottoman Turkish Empire following its defeat in Hungary saw Polish and Lithuanian nobility compete for influence and land in Ruthenia, Moldavia and the Ukraine as Ottoman influence retreated. Sigismund I was able to suppress this rivalry but his son would have less luck. The interests and desires of the Lithuanian and Polish aristocracies would continue to diverge and mutual distrust would fester.
Sigismund II, King of Poland and Grand Duke of Lithuania
In religious policy Sigismund would continue his father’s policy of light religious toleration. Lutheranism had made early inroads into Poland and had become the de facto state religion in the Prussian Duchy in the 1520s. Following the unification of the Reformed Church at Marburg this process accelerated. Queen Barbara herself a Reformist favoured the spread of the movement as did increasing amounts of the Polish nobility and upper classes, and to a lesser extent in Lithuania as well. Jan Łaski was one of the leading Polish Reformed preachers/thinkers and ended up becoming secretary to the king and pushed the king for the establishment of a Polish National Church (unsuccessfully) - however his influence did encourage the growth of the Reformation in both Poland and Lithuania and in 1563 the Bible of Brest (a Polish language version of the Bible) was published[3]. In 1563 threats of a split within the Polish Reformed movement were overcome by Laski, the Queen and her allies and the movement remained unified. In 1569 the Krakow Declaration granted a huge degree of rights and protections to the Reformed movement (especially the noble followers). By the time of the king’s death in 1571 nearly two thirds of the magnate class and a third of the lesser nobility and townspeople (but not the peasant majority) in Poland were Reformists[4]. It had also made significant but less dramatic inroads into Lithuania.
The big foreign policy test of Sigismund II’s reign was the Livonian War. The Livonian War had begun in 1558 when Tsar Ivan IV of Russia (the first Russian Tsar) invaded Livonia in response to the Livonian efforts to facilitate an alliance and closer political ties with Poland-Lithuania. Many elements of the Livonian populace welcomed the Russians as liberators from the “German” rule of the Order. In 1559 another major crack between the Polish and Lithuanian halves of the realm was brought to life by the Treaty of Vilnius when the Livonian Order placed themselves under the protection of the Grand Duke of Lithuania (Sigismund II) in order to help drive out the Russians. The Polish Sejm however refused to ratify the treaty seeing it as a “Lithuanian” issue and not wishing to get involved[5] - consequently the military effort to contain the Russians would be Lithuanian one alone. The war continued to go well for the Russians so in 1561 the Livonian Order (following a major defeat to the Russians) dissolved itself into secular Duchies under the Lithuanian Crown - at this point so many Lithuanian nobles were growing irritated and resentful of the Poles they offered the Lithuanian Crown to Tsar Ivan without success [6]. A short truce in the war was signed in 1561 between Lithuania and Russia though Sweden now took up arms against the Russians so the war continued. Lithuania would rejoin the war in 1562. The war would rage back and forth in Livonia and along the Polish-Lithuanian border and Russia slowly gained the upper hand.
Fighting in the Livonian War
Sigismund II eager to strengthen and preserve the union between Poland and Lithuania and very aware that he had no male heirs began pushing for closer political union - using the Russian threat as a way to convince the apathetic Lithuanian nobility to get in line. It is likely that in time this may have worked [7] but then the Russian threat disappeared. The death of Ivan IV in 1565 and the sudden and dramatic collapse of the Russian state that followed transformed the situation. Lithuania now not only had breathing room to regroup and recover but also a great opportunity to expand in the east. The desire for Union in Vilnius went from lukewarm to very cool and the dream died. As did Sigismund himself a few years later in 1571. The Lithuanians moved first. Sensing a golden opportunity to free themselves of the arrogant Poles and focus their efforts against the collapsing Russians in the east (two causes which transcended religious differences) the Lithuanian nobility gathered quickly to elect a new Grand Duke.
There were two factions within the Lithuanian nobility roughly split on religious lines. The first was led by the Radziwiłłs, the relatives of the late Queen who had died three years before her husband. The two leaders of the family were Mikołaj "the Red" the Grand Chancellor of Lithuania (brother of the late queen) and his cousin Mikołaj "the Black" Radziwiłł. The Radziwiłłs were supportive of and adherents to the the Reformed Faith and had considerable power and influence in Lithuania which they hoped to leverage alongside their dynastic links to the old Queen into gaining the Lithuanian throne. Opposing them were those who sought to limit the power of the Radziwiłł family and were largely Catholic (and some Orthodox) better representing the majority of the Lithuanian population. They were a collection of multiple groups with multiple leaders but the respected, intelligent and military veteran Jan Hieronimowicz Chodkiewicz (a former Reformist now Catholic again) was the most assertive amongst them. These two groups however many differences they had possessed two major goals in common: the continued and re-asserted independence of Lithuania from Poland and the defence of the powers of the nobility at the expense of the monarch. With a worry about a Polish attempt to forcibly maintain the union and wanting to take advantage of the Russian implosion both sides came together to make a fast decision. The Radziwiłłs of course wanted one of their own as the new Grand Duke, but this was blocked by their opponents and in the end it was decided that like tradition a foreign prince was best. But whom? He had to be a Catholic this was fundamental to the anti-Radziwiłł faction and even the Reformed nobles realised that the population was not with them and their influence was not as great as their co-religionists were enjoying in Poland. It was also desired that he should be young, allowing him to be “guided” by the nobles and less likely to attempt to curtail their powers. The Lithuanian court settled on John, second son of Stephen King of Hungary. John, 13, was not only a Catholic but a member of the Jagiellon Dynasty like Sigismund II and thus had some legitimacy . Also as a second son there was less likelihood of Lithuania ending up as the junior partner in yet another foreign personal union, in addition the choice secured Lithuania a strong dynastic alliance with Hungary which it was hoped would counter any Polish attempts to re-subdue Lithuania. John was invited to Vilnius where he was crowned Grand Duke where he took the name Alexander II - after signing the Compact of 1572 which defended the rights of the Lithuanian nobility, guaranteed religious tolerance of Catholics, Orthodox Christians and Reformists (but not Lutherans) and formalized the electoral nature of the Lithuanian monarchy. The Catholic faction asserted that Jan Hieronimowicz Chodkiewicz be named regent for the young king and in exchange Anna, daughter of Mikołaj "the Red", was betrothed to the young Grand Duke. The two factions, though opposed to one another, both recognised the importance of this moment and were eager to secure a peaceful and speedy solution. Which, baring a brief small Orthodox rebellion in Ruthenia, they achieved. The Lithuanian nobles and their armies now turned east. In Poland however the story was far bloodier.
The succession struggle in Poland would take a very different route from across the border. There were two reasons for this. Firstly, religious. Whereas Lithuania had a notable and influential minority of Reformist nobles the majority of the population were still Catholic/Orthodox with a majority Catholic nobility. Poland however was far more divided, with a slight majority of its magnates embracing the Reformation and a significant chunk of its urban population and lesser nobility as well. Secondly because of Poland’s geographic location it was far more likely to invite foreign involvement. Sigismund II had died childless in November 1571. As Lithuania moved to break its dynastic union with Poland and elected the Jagiellon John of Hungary the Polish nobility split. The Reformed nobles and their supporters saw this as the perfect opportunity to elect a Reformed Monarch who could finish the Reformation in Poland - and of course therefore enhance their own positions. The Catholic faction, fearing exactly this, immediately gathered in Warsaw[8] to select their own monarch and assert control over the country before the Reformists who were gathering in the north could make their play. The Catholic Faction, which also included most of the bishops (led by the influential Stanisław Karnkowski and Jakub Uchański) was however divided on a candidate. Loosely speaking there were three different groups within the Catholic Faction. One who wanted a foreign monarch (largely in order to invite foreign support in a Civil War which most now saw as unavoidable) and others who wanted a domestic Polish candidate (in order to end foreign interference in Poland and indeed put themselves forward as claimants). In addition the foreign leaning group were again divided largely between pro-Habsburg and pro-Jagiellon candidates [9]. The various groups could not come to an agreement and with the Protestant forces on the march decided to temporarily shelve the issue and under the symbolic leadership of Bishop Uchański began forming their armies: the Catholic nobility and organised supporters and therefore their armies were gathered in two distinct regions near Poznan (Posen) in Greater Poland in the west and in the south at Lvov. Their plan was to crush the main Protestant forces between them and besiege and capture the capital Krakow.
The Protestants for their part were eager to elect a king quickly and settled early on for a domestic candidate: Samuel Zborowski head of the influential, rich and powerful Reformist Zborowski family. The Protestant faction planned to marry Zborowski to Anna Jagiellon, Sigismund II’s unmarried sister as Zborowski’s own wife had died a few years previously. But the fighting took priority as the two sides fought a series of battles throughout the first half of 1572. A Protestant effort to retake Warsaw was repelled in a bloody battle on the Vistula but a Protestant force from the north was able to take Toruń (Thorn) to threaten cutting the Catholic forces in half. The Lutheran Prussians (vassals to the Polish Crown) supported the Protestant faction but were only making minimal efforts of support, primarily as they were hoping to negotiate for greater autonomy before committing fully. Once this was granted the Prussians moved south and joining with a Protestant army under Jan Firlej, won a major victory at Plock. The Catholics, now met in Warsaw and after intense debate (and with the Jagellions of Hungary currently fighting another bitter war with the Turks) decided to elect Leopold Habsburg (son of Archduke Ferdinand who was the younger brother of Emperor Maximilian) in the hope of unifying their cause and inviting Habsburg support. This had unintended consequences as between one quarter and one third of the Catholic nobility led by Bishop Uchański [10] were alienated by this decision and either simply went home or defected to the Zborowski cause favouring a domestic Polish candidate (a move that was rendered ironic very soon). Leopold Habsburg however accepted the election and began lobbying his father and uncle for support as he gathered his own forces in Austria.
In November 1572 however the Zborowski Prusso-Polish Army fought a bloody and inconclusive battle west of Warsaw. Both armies suffered casualties but the most important of all was the death of the would be king Samuel Zborowski, he left no heirs and his remaining brothers were deemed lacklustre. The Protestant cause was now in the balance. There were no remaining domestic candidates agreeable to all sides and the nomination of a Habsburg candidate by the other side (and the expected foreign support it would bring) meant that electing a Protestant candidate from abroad who could bring his own forces and support to bear was now the choice of the majority of the Protestant nobles, meeting in Krakow. Bishop Uchański and the other Catholic defectors now found themselves between a rock and hard place, realising they couldn’t re-defect back they instead found themselves arguing for A) a candidate that would protect not persecute the Catholic elements of the country and B) if at all possible had some dynastic link to the previous monarchy as some form of domestic claim. Taking all this into account there was one obvious candidate: Frederick von Hohenzollern - the son of Joachim III Elector of Brandenburg and his second wife Hedwig Jagiellon (sister of Sigismund II)[11]. Not only was Frederick Protestant (of the Unified Reformed faith though his father was a Lutheran) but he was not known to be rabidly anti-Catholic and he had a dynastic link to the old regime. But most importantly of all in late 1571 Joachim III had died after outliving all his male children from his first marriage - meaning Frederick was now not only the nephew of the former King Sigismund II but was the Prince-Elector of the Margraviate of Brandenburg. With the majority of the impromptu Sejm at Krakow in agreement (including the enthusiastic support of the Hohenzollern Duke of Prussia) Frederick was elected King of Poland. Frederick, who had of course kept an eye on events in Poland and had kept up a small lobbying campaign throughout, was happy to be nominated and began preparing his forces. He was also however a cunning and ambitious man. Recognising that he effectively held now all the cards as the Protestant choice and with the war finely balanced, he made his acceptance of the crown dependent on three factors: the replacement of an elected monarchy with a Hohenzollern dynastic succession, the establishment of a Reformed Polish National Church and the enhancement of monarchical power at the expense of the relatively powerful nobility. The debate between Krakow and Berlin went back and forth for months as Frederick gathered his army but as the Catholic forces began a siege of Lublin and rumors of the Habsburg Leopold leaving Vienna reached Krakow, the Sejm were forced to compromise. The Reformed National Church was accepted easily - even Bishop Uchański accepted after securing guarantees of Catholic tolerance. The powers of the nobility were limited (less than Frederick wanted but more than the nobility desired as a compromise) - but they were unwilling to abandon their rights to elect a monarch. Instead a compromise was agreed that Frederick's young son, George, was elected Vivente rege, in other words pre-elected as the next king before his father died - as Sigismund II had been. With most of what he wanted and a guarantee that the Hohenzollern dynasty would continue in Poland after his death, Frederick von Hohenzollern formally accepted the crown of Poland and moved his army over the border.
The fighting would drag on for another 9 months but by now the conclusion was already set. As the Hohenzollern forces joined the fight the Catholic army suffered a string of reverses and gradually collapsed. More and more simply went home or joined the Hohenzollern cause to save what they could. Leopold in Austria had indeed mustered a small force of 2,000 to aid his bid. However Stephen of Hungary-Bohemia refused to help Leopold or allow him to cross lands under his control - though a Catholic, Stephen was a pragmatist and the idea of being caught in a Habsburg vice of Austria and Poland made him (and his court) deeply uncomfortable. This undermined Leopold’s ability to intervene directly (in contrast to Frederick) and with a crushing Catholic defeat at Poznan and with a dynastic crisis (and opportunity) brewing in Austria itself Leopold abandoned his campaign. The final surrender of the remaining Catholic diehards came at Lvov on the 14th of July 1573. Frederick was confirmed as King of Poland and the Frederikan Constitution (formalizing all the previous agreements with the Polish Sejm) was formally adopted. Poland (and Lithuania) now entered a new era in their histories. While further east the chaos in Russia reach a climax.
The dynastic crisis in Poland of 1571-73 is often viewed as the final religious precursor conflict to 1592 - with the Austrian Succession War being the final political settlement as both sides in that struggle were Catholic. This is an argument this author is in agreement with. These conflicts represent the final spasm of the chaos and war brought about by Luther’s actions in 1517. Everything that had followed from the Atlantic to the Baltic had sown the seeds of what was to come and laid out the table on which the future of Europe was to be settled. The board was set and the pieces now began to move. The War for Dominance was on the horizon. - From The Struggle for Dominion 1520-1620 by George Thomas-Watt Commonwealth Press.
[1] OTL behavior
[2] Change from OTL where she died. Here she recovers (somewhat) from the cancer but is unable to have children.
[3] Also roughly OTL. Here however the Unified Reformed Movement that has formed throughout Europe and Poland prevents (or at least lessens) some of the OTL divisions in the Polish Reformation which hindered it.
[4] In OTL Protestants encompassed approximately ½ of the magnate class and ¼ of other nobility and townspeople according to Reformations by Carlos Eire and Wikipedia. With a stronger more unified Reform movement in Europe and the continued influence of the Radziwiłłs I see no reason why this shouldn't be higher ATL. In fact the level of influence the Reformation gained in Poland OTL is honestly quite surprising - it surprised me anyway when I began researching it. It was a major force and with a few tweaks and twists could have ended up dominating the upper and middle classes.
[5] OTL
[6] Also OTL
[7] In OTL it was the rapidly worsening situation in the war vs Russia that convinced enough of the Lithuanian elite to sign up to the Union of Lublin - and even then it was difficult. With the war against Russia going well here (covered next update) there is less impetus for the Lithuanians to concede sovereignty. So they don't.
[8] Krakow was still the capital without Union of Lublin but it was a city with high Protestant support OTL
[9] Divisions over foreign princes were very much a factor in the elections in Poland/Lithuania in this time OTL after Sig II.
[10] Uchański OTL was one of the more pragmatic of the Catholic bishops. He proposed toleration and co-operation with the Protestants and favored a Polish National Church.
[11] An ATL character but effectively a different version of their son Sigismund. ITTL none of Joachim's sons from this first marriage survive to adulthood so the title passes to Frederick.
Why would the Russians refuse the Lithuanian crown? Seems like a great idea, gain a lot of land and weaken Poland.
And didn't Ivan have two sons, presumably he killed his first one as suspected OTL did he kill the spare too? Doesn't change too much I suppose, just starts an earlier Time of Troubles. Hopefully Russians can recover and don't fall completely under foreign influence.
And didn't Ivan have two sons, presumably he killed his first one as suspected OTL did he kill the spare too? Doesn't change too much I suppose, just starts an earlier Time of Troubles. Hopefully Russians can recover and don't fall completely under foreign influence.
He refused it in real life - but it was only a small minority of Lithuanian nobles who offered it to him. He does have two sons will cover Russia next. The Russians will have a tough time for the foreseeable future.
There would should be Union of Lublin ITTL if there are male line Jagiellons around. Lithuania is hereditary Jagiellon duchy. Hungarian Jagiellon line would take their ancestral land due to their birthrights once Sigismund dies, and Sigismund would not deprive his dynasty of hereditary rights to Grand Duchy of Lithuania in such situation. Also, there would be less pressure from nobility of Poland to tighten the Union. IOTL nobles of Poland were afraid, that once dynasty is excint (with was expected to happen IOTL, when Sigismund II was only male Jagiellon, married 3 times and childless) ties between Poland and Lithuania would be completly broken. Otherwise there would be no pressure to change status quo, which worked since Union of Horodło in 1413.
And just for curiosity what will likely happen with Lithuania and Lublin if Sigismund II is childless and the last male Jagiellon as OTL but either Hedwig or Isabella has a still alive healthy enough son at least in his teens at the death of Sigismund?
Not being male line Jagiellon, his position would be weaker, because unlike Poland, Lithuania has no tradition of female line inheritance. IOTL Isabella's son was alive at the time of Union of Lublin-John Sigismund Zapolya was full grown man at the time. Would he outlive his uncle he would get the throne of PLC without problems (unless he is not willing to return to Catholic faith) and election would be pure formality, but he would not keep Jagiellon hereditary rights to Lithuania.
I played a game of Europa Universalis 2 years ago as Brandenburg that played out similarly to the final part of this. Should be interesting to see if it ends up lasting, and if it becomes a counterpart to OTL's Saxony-Poland or something more close-knit.
My understanding is that it was precisely because there were no male descendants of Sigismund II (plus the Russian threat) that forced the Lithuanians (and even then not all of them) to accept the Union. Here Sigismund does still make the effort it is just unsuccessful. It is obviously interpretive but my reading of it is that without the Russian threat or total Jagiellon extinction there may not be enough to force the Union through without military force - at least under this king at this time. Not ruling it out for ever.
And also I'll point out that you are right the Hungarian Jagiellon's still do end up ruling Lithuania here - the dynastic link/ties to the dynasty is why Lithuania is able to resolve the crisis faster and more peacefully than Poland.
Isabella does not have a son ITTL - as she does not marry Zapolya who died fighting the Turks after Mohacs. Whatever marriage she has instead is childless. The only living male grandchild of Sigismund I is Frederick Hohenzollern.
Great game - lots of hours spent. Well it won't be an easy ride but lets see where it takes us.
Sucks, there goes the last Orthodox power in the world. The Orthodox will have a rough time in this timeline.
At least seems Central Europe will be more dynamic. Though given the rise of the Brandenburgers in Poland it is hard to tell if this timeline will be more or less German dominated than the original one but we have Lithuania, Poland and Hungary all doing well so far. I am guessing Austria will focus more on the HRE given that they lost Hungary and the east.