A Lusophone World
Lusitania
Donor
The best way to write what you like to say is to write in Portuguese or your first language and then either use a English translate app or google translate and get the English version of what you wrote in your language.
then copy and paste the English version in the forum. That way every one can understand.
Lusitania
Donor
Yeah I can understand. I played an online game and used a username of “Vaipramerda”. Could not do that in English. Lol
Your coup idea for India probably requires a revision. In 1947 the Indian army was still full of British officers who will never allow a coup. You can start the civil war after 1950.
Lusitania
Donor
Thank you for your response, while not an expert in India I was aware that there a number of British still in India, I did not know how many.
The civil war started due to communist forces blowing up the Indian parliament. The POD was that Indian communist did not reject violence and armed struggle to achieve their goal.
Following the attack on the Indian parliament the middle and lower rank Indian officers who were communists led their forces against other Indian units. Many British officers in the Indian forces were killed by communists. The remaining stayed in the Indian Army, but quite a few also served in the Mysore and Hyderabad armed forces. By 1950 there no British officers in the Republic of India forces though. This was due to a purge of British officers and remaining British administrators after the British commonwealth started helping Democratic Union of India. The majority of these troops actually stayed in the Indian subcontinent and joined DUI, Hyderabad and Mysore. When Tamil Nandu became independent the majority of its officers in the first decade were British.
Thank you for helping me better explain the situation correctly.
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Thanks for the acknowledgement.
The Naval Mutiny was half hearted at best (the Indian sailors didn't know how to operate the guns). The Indian army was still loyal with a requirement that a third of the men are Europeans plus there was troops of the Royal army stationed too ( not the Europeans of the Royal Indian Army). The Indian officers of the Royal Indian Army were instructed by senior Congress leaders to not resign and join the independence movement as they believed India needed a professional army after independence although India neglected the army for a decade. Plus the British ruled their colonies better than anyone else (suppressing national with force while keeping a good public image no one else managed that).
The communists became a reasonable force in Hyderabad otl due to covert support from the Indian National Congress to weaken the Ruler of Hyderabad. They had started a communist revolution there. Bengal, where the communists were in power for 34 years they started to gain traction only in the Sixties starting from trade unions, in 1947 only grassroot support (so small that it's hard to notice but still visible) for them was in parts of Kerela. They were basically a fringe group. There chances of setting up such an action is less than 1%. Anything beyond local insurrections is impossible(Storming the Parliament would have required their entire force). Their fighters were equipped with Spears and they possessed no more than 50 to 100 firearms. Most likely a second echelon of the Congress would take over).Although stranger things have happened in history.
In such an event Pakistan takes all of Kashmir but I doubt they would have interest seizing Hindu majority areas. Moreover Jinnah wanted India and Pakistan to be like USA and Canada.
Plainly the communists needed time to organize and grow. You cannot set up shop in Delhi and go unnoticed. It's like Greeks coming over to Paris to storm the French Parliament. I don't want to be a nitpicker but it's Tamil Nadu not Tamil Nandu.
It's a great timeline. I really like timelines like this one where minor powers become great powers. It's your timeline you call the shots. Feel free to ignore my suggestion.
1960 - World - Africa (Conclusion)
Lusitania
Donor
1960 – 1969
World (cont.)
Africa
The African Cease Fire and Elusive Peace
While the implementation of the Cease Fire was easy, accomplishing a lasting peace was elusive and 1967 turned to 1968 with no peace treaty in place. In South Africa, the situation for whites and Asians became dangerous and most of them either fled to Portuguese controlled areas or emigrated out of Africa. Continued border clashes in Congo and Tanzania occurred regularly. The Portuguese setup “war crimes” tribunal to deal with the thousands of African officials in its custody who had authorized or participated in the attack on the Portuguese Federation.[1] With so many of the previous government officials under arrest many of the occupied countries were left without proper government and made negotiating peace treaties difficult. Many of those that still had functioning governments refused to negotiate. The Portuguese burdened by the cost and effort of occupying area larger than the Federation began to look at alternatives to the continuation of the status quo.[2] World (cont.)
Africa
The African Cease Fire and Elusive Peace
In North Africa, the Portuguese occupation of almost half of Morocco was a huge logistics and security effort as the Portuguese forces faced continual attacks from insurgents and the general population. Attempts to recruit locals to assist the Portuguese was hampered by fear that once the Portuguese withdrew, they would be subject to retribution by Morocco. Attempts to negotiate a new peace treaty never got off the ground as the new Moroccan government refused to negotiate with the Federation. The Moroccan strategy was to force the Portuguese to withdraw without any concessions from Morocco. Faced with a huge dilemma the Portuguese decided to establish independent Portuguese aligned countries encompassing the occupied Moroccan territory as buffers to the new Islamic Republic of Morocco. In the north the Kingdom of Fez was established and in the south the Kingdom of Marrakesh was created with relatives of the deposed Moroccan Sultan as head of both states. Each of the countries then established their own military and security forces so they could protect themselves and Portuguese Federation from Moroccan attacks. The Portuguese were able to scale back its troop and security forces presence in the two new countries substantially and by end of decade its forces primary mission in the new countries was to train and advise the two countries’ military and security forces.
In West Africa the Portuguese faced different situations; the countries of Mauritania, Senegal and Mali which were relative calm, as opposed to the situation south of Portuguese Guinea where both the French backed Guinea and Portuguese backed Guinea Boke continuing to battle Democratic Republic of Guinea, meanwhile the fall of Benin’s capital and occupation of south part of the country had resulted in the remainder of the country descending into anarchy.
The countries of Senegal and Mauritania were occupied by the Portuguese and their leaders captured or killed during the war while Mali was ruled by President Moussa Traoré who had overthrown the previous government of Modibo Keita. He broke with Pan African strategy and signed a peace treaty with the Portuguese thus sparing Mali from the same fate as its neighbors. Following the establishment of cease fire Mali’s new President approached the Portuguese about reviving the Senegal – Mali Federation. The Portuguese at first were hesitant to support the idea but in February 1968 finally agreed to the idea on condition it also include Mauritania but exclude all lands south of Gambia which was to be become an independent country (Republic of Casamansa). President Traoré agreed to the Portuguese conditions and on 1 March 1968 the Senegal – Mali Federation was formed. Subsequent French recognition of the new country provided it with much legitimacy and by end of decade half of Europe and most of South America had recognize it as well as the French Community. Senegal – Mali Federation joined the French Community and maintained an independent foreign policy, while at same time having security, diplomatic and economic agreements with the Portuguese Federation and Lusitania Commonwealth countries. The Republic of Casamansa was formed on 1 January 1969 encompassed all lands between Senegal-Mali Federation, Gambia and Portuguese Guinea and became home to the Jola people half of whom were refugees in Portuguese Guinea at the time.
In Guinea, the Portuguese backed Guinea Boke and the re-established French backed Guinea continued their attacks on Democratic Republic of Guinea pushing its forces deep into the jungle and mountains. Both Portuguese Federation and France provided logistic and support to the two Guinea while with assistance of its neighbors (neutral Sierra Leone and Liberia as well as Senegal-Mali Federation and Ivory Coast maintained a blockade around it. Portuguese and French commandos joined in the fighting while the surrounding countries blocked attempts by the last DR Guinea fighters from fleeing. In August 1968, the new DR Capital fell and by April 1969 the last remnants of the DR Guinea were defeated. The Soviets protested the French and Portuguese actions and UN attempted to pass several resolutions regarding fighting in Guinea, but France used its veto powers to block all UN motions. In June 1969, a peace treaty between Guinea Boke, Guinea and Portuguese Federation was signed. Guinea Boke took a third of DR Guinea while French backed Guinea annexed the remainder. Like the Senegal – Mali Federation, Guinea signed a peace and friendship treaty with Portuguese Federation and joined the re-launched French Community.
In Benin, the Portuguese had a difficult time trying to establish a stable government, the fall of the previous government of Christophe Soglo and the entire country military commanders had left a huge power vacuum and in the north revolts by several tribes forced the Portuguese to deploy commando units to quell the growing anarchy and rebellions in the north. In February 1968, the Portuguese reached an agreement with President Gnassingbé Eyadéma of Togo in which Togo received military and financial support while it assisted the Portuguese Federation to pacify northern Benin. Over the remainder of the decade Togo slowly gained control of the northern half of Benin. By end of 1969 Togo with Portuguese support had captured and controlled all of northern Benin including the city of Kandi. While Togo actions were condemned by some of its neighbors and the UN which demanded Togo and Portuguese Federation withdraw from Benin. Togo with the financial and military support of the Federation as well as French tacit approval continued to ignore the diplomatic protests. In December 1969 it also joined the re-launched French Community, a sign of its acceptance within Africa and by France.
In August 1968, the Portuguese signed a peace treaty with majority of the OUA countries including the western African countries of Gambia, Liberia, Sierra Leonne, Ivory Coast, Upper Volta, Niger and Nigeria which was the only one that Portuguese had troops in. The peace treaty with Nigeria allowed the Portuguese armed forces to withdraw from Nigeria, who continued to battle the Igbo people in the province of Biafra. The Portuguese along with British continued to support Nigeria military and in June 1969 the last Biafra held city fell and the Biafra-Nigeria War ended.
The Portuguese occupation of southern part of Republic of Congo continued into 1968 without any hope of peace. The northern half of country was rocked by anarchy as tribal leaders and remnants of the communists viewed for control of the remaining unoccupied part of the country leaving the Portuguese forces subject to continued attacks by communist forces. In July 1968 with the situation in North Congo escalating the Portuguese launched a new offensive in an attempt to defeat the last communist forces and unite the country under a friendly or neutral government. They captured the cities of Oyo, Owando, Ouesso and Impfondo. The communist forces were defeated, and the remaining soldiers fled deep into the jungle or into Zaire. On 25th of September, the Portuguese announced their withdrawal back to the cease fire line but as the Portuguese withdrew the forces of the Republic of Gabon crossed into northern Congo and by 5th of October had occupied all of northern Congo citing continued anarchy and frequent border attacks as reason.[3] Gabon then annexed all lands it had occupied and became the 4th African country to gain territory as result of Portuguese Pan-African war and like Senegal – Mali Federation, Guinea and Togo was ostracized by some African countries as it entered friendly relationship with Portuguese Federation. It too became one of the principle supporters of the re-launched French Community. This left the Portuguese with the southern part of Republic of Congo which the Portuguese planned on granting independence but in December 1968 the Portuguese abandoned those plans and instead began planning to incorporate occupied Republic of Congo and occupied Democratic Republic of Congo into one country called Kingdom of Kongo. This was done due to the three remaining Pan – African Alliance countries of Zaire, Uganda and Tanzania refusing to recognize the Portuguese Federation and not negotiating with the Portuguese while they still “occupied” territory in Africa. The Portuguese plan had been to create Kingdom of Congo encompassing Portuguese occupied Zaire but after consulting with the new leaders of Kingdom of Congo the Portuguese decided to establish a Portuguese aligned country encompassing all occupied territory in the Republic of Congo and DM Congo (Zaire). This decision was opposed by the French who had expected the Portuguese to free Republic of Congo like Senegal – Mali Federation. Portuguese ally Katanga also gained territory from Zaire in the war and with no peace treaty it annexed the territory it had captured in the war but more damaging to Zaire it cancelled the agreement to share mineral wealth with it.
In the countries of Namibia, Zambia and Malawi the Portuguese established allied governments allowing it to strengthen its borders and reduce its troop presence in Southern Africa. Meanwhile following the end of the South African war South Africa’s spiral into anarchy continued and the dire situation in the country worsened. Due to British, US and UN pressure the Portuguese withdrew all troops from western part of South Africa, keeping the 2nd infantry division in Namibia for mutual protection. Namibia had declared its independence from South Africa and aligned itself to the Federation.
During the remainder of 1967 and 1968 neither British/Commonwealth nor Portuguese were able to establish a proper government in South Africa. In December of 1967 the Zulus who predominantly lived between Lesotho and Swaziland began organizing themselves and reached an agreement with the Federation where the Portuguese agreed to withdraw from Zulu lands if it assured that the territory would not be used by communists to attack the Federation. When the British and British Commonwealth learned of the agreement they intervened and after several meeting recognized and supported the creation of the Kingdom of Zulu. The Zulu received both financial and military support from Britain and British Commonwealth and during the winter and spring 1968 the Zulu army with the backing of the majority of the Zulu people attacked and defeated the communist rebels still operating in the country. It also became a refuge for tens of thousands of South African whites and Asians who continued to flee ongoing fighting in rest of SA. In July 1968, the Portuguese withdrew from remainder of South Africa except for a strip of land along Eastern Portuguese Africa and Swaziland which had suffered greatly under Communist occupation.
For the remainder of 1968 SA scene of continued fighting between rival African groups and remnants of the White National government. In February 1969, the African National Congress Party under the leadership of Nelson Mandela emerged as the strongest political and military force in South Africa. Espousing an Africa for blacks’ policy it united many of South Africa’s blacks under its wings. The remaining White Nationalist forces were defeated one by one and the last whites and non-Africans fled South Africa towards either Federation controlled territory or Lesotho and Zulu. By the summer of 1969, the ANC had seized all of remaining South Africa either not under Zulu or Portuguese control.
The Portuguese had stayed in Northern Botswana and many of the Botswana leaders who had either fled the communists or been rescued by the Federation returned to Portuguese occupied Botswana and tried to unite the country. The communists in the south refused to negotiate and sought Soviet support instead. Nelson Mandela and the ANC offered to help them, and ANC and the Botswana communists agreed to SA forces entering Botswana to assist them. In August 1969 its forces moved into southern Botswana but instead of assisting the Botswana communists they attacked them and established control over southern Botswana.
Rhodesia was another country the Portuguese had hoped to quickly withdraw from but immediately after the cease fire violence erupted between both various African groups and whites living in the western part of the country not occupied by the Federation. After repeated attempts to broker a peace deal between the different groups the Portuguese sent its forces into the remainder of Rhodesia it did not occupy to pacify those regions and unarm the combatants. In November 1968, the Republic of Rhodesia was established with a multi-racial government similar to the Portuguese Federation.[4]
In October 1969, a conference was held in the capital of Lesotho Maseru regarding the future of Southern Africa. Portuguese backed leaders from Botswana, Namibia, Zambia, Malawi and Rhodesia came along with the Portuguese, while Prime Minister of Zulu and Britain along with the leader of the host country attended and facing all these was Nelson Mandela. He demanded the withdrawal of Federation from all countries and SA along with the freeing of all those held captive by the Portuguese. Nelson Mandela also demanded the incorporation of Kingdom of Zulu and refused to negotiate with what he called Portuguese “lapdogs”. The conference collapsed when all the countries refused his demands. South Africa then withdrew from the British Commonwealth and annexed southern Botswana instead of letting it rejoin Portuguese backed Botswana.
The Portuguese responded to the SA actions by giving the people living in the strip of land it occupied along its eastern African provinces from Rhodesia to the coast (also included what had been Swaziland a choice of joining Rhodesia or South Africa and a vote was planned for 1 November 1969. The announcement of the referendum was condemned by Nelson Mandela who called it a trick and illegal. When the Portuguese announced that the tens of thousands of South Africans who had fled into the Portuguese occupied areas would be allowed to vote the South African threatened to attack but the Portuguese responded by moving additional troops into the region and threatening that any attack would be dealt with deadly response. The Portuguese stated that the people were South African citizens and were entitled to vote. On 1 November 1769, 71% of all voters in the occupied South Africa and Swaziland rejected the South African and voted instead to join Republic of Rhodesia. At the end of the decade the Portuguese who still had over 800,000 refugees within its borders and gave all refugees 12 months to leave the Portuguese Federation. Over 500,000 went to live in Namibia and Rhodesia, 150,000 went to live in the Kingdom of Zulu while less than 50,000 Africans chose to return to South Africa with remainder choosing to emigrate elsewhere.
The British and the British Commonwealth strengthened the Kingdom of Zulu and Lesotho providing it with additional military and economic support in the face of continued SA threat. South Africa expelled all non-Africans from SA with majority fleeing to Zulu. As 1960s came to a close SA entered into a new era free of any colonial ties and only for Africans. Thus, ending one of Africa’s most tragic and costlier wars. Over 350,000 civilians and combatants had died in two years of war. Over 3 million white, Asian and mixed South Africans had been forced to flee. The kingdom of Zulu became home to majority of the fleeing Asians and about 500,000 whites while the rest had been forced to emigrate. The majority of Afrikaners emigrated to the USA and Australia while Canada and to a lesser extent New Zealand took in over 1 million South Africans both white, African and Asian. While the Portuguese Federation and newly aligned African countries were the recipients of 900,000 South Africans.
On 1 November 1969, the Portuguese Federation announced the creation two new nations encompassing the remaining Portuguese occupied territory. The Republic of Rovuma was created from all occupied territory in Tanzania north of Portuguese East Africa while the Sultanate of Zanzibar was created from the islands occupied off the coast of Tanzania, which encompassed the primary three islands (Zanzibar, Pemba, and Mafia) that were populated as well as several 40 or so small islands and islets. Due to continuous attacks from Tanzania only the three main islands were occupied while the remaining were designed as wildlife sanctuaries. Portuguese and Zanzibar naval and air force patrols were maintained around the clock to guard against Tanzanian attacks.
In addition to the countries affected by Portuguese – African War several other countries also suffered continued unrest and military intervention. The countries of Somalia, Tunisia and Algeria which had fought the French were especially affected.
The country of Somalia experienced a civil war as troops from Sudan backed General Ali while Ethiopia supported Mohamed Haji Ibrahim Egal. During the Civil war Mogadishu fell several times to the various factions. When Sudan announced it was going to bolster its forces in Somalia to 100,000 soldiers, Ethiopia and Kenya came to an agreement to divide remaining part of Somalia not under French control between them and prevented Sudan from seizing control of the country. On 5 August 1969, the Ethiopian and Kenyan troops entered Somalia and defeated all Somalian and Sudanese forces and annexed the remainder of Somalia already not under French control. French Somalia incorporated the territory the French had captured from Somalia. In Tunisia the French ousted Tunisian President Habib Bourguiba and installed a French friendly government under President Hedi Nouira. In Algeria, the French had withdrawn after President Houri Boumediene was overthrown following Algeria’s defeat by France and Portuguese Federation. Mohamed Khider returned to Algeria in 1968 and was instrumental in negotiating a peace treaty with France and withdrawing Algeria from the Arab league Alliance. As part of the peace treaty with France, Algeria received 35% of all oil and gas royalties from French Algeria.
By summer of 1969 the Pan-African Alliance had been reduced to only three countries: Zaire (DR Congo), Uganda and Tanzania. The Pan-African Alliance refused to negotiate any treaty with the Portuguese Federation, and technically remained at war with the Federation. The war had weakened them considerable and they became reliant on the Soviet Union which led to the three countries governments becoming full-fledged communist governments and the countries becoming completely aligned with the Soviet Union. The Soviet Union announced that the Pan - African Alliance was now under the protection of the Soviet Nuclear umbrella. On 5 November 1969 Zaire, Uganda and Tanzania as well as the Arab League Alliance countries were expelled from OUA. At the end of the decade the OUA now comprised of Algeria, Libya, Sierra Leone, Liberia, Ivory Coast, Gambia, Ghana, Upper Volta, Niger, Nigeria, Chad, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Ethiopia, Kenya, Lesotho, Rwanda, Burundi, Zulu and Madagascar. Senegal-Mali Federation, Guinea, Togo and Gabon were expelled from the OUA due to their annexation for occupying foreign territory in collaboration with the Portuguese Federation. Meanwhile the countries of Guinea Boke, Katanga, Zambia, Malawi, Rhodesia, Botswana and Namibia were considered under Portuguese administration and thus also rejected. South Africa withdrew OUA when it accepted Zulu, the OUA also rejected Russian, USA and Portuguese Federation involvement in the continent of Africa and thus became part of the Non-Aligned movement.
The Arab League Alliance too suffered with the loss of Somalia and Algeria and had been reduced to Egypt, Sudan and Morocco. Egypt the alliance’s most powerful nation was a former shadow of itself, as it had lost Yemen and Syria which had declared their independence. The Sinai Peninsula was under the occupation of Israel and the Suez Canal an important foreign currency earner was closed. To the south, Egypt’s major ally Sudan was embroiled in a civil war. Sudan battled both the Azania Liberation Front and Anyanya who formed an alliance with Ethiopia against the Sudan. Ethiopia and the two Sudanese rebel groups were supported by China while Sudan was supported by Egypt and the Soviets. On a positive note for the alliance, at the end of 1969 Libya under the leadership of Colonel Kaddafi joined the alliance.
African Continent in 1968 - 1969
At the end of the decade the Portuguese Federation had established itself as the most powerful country on the African continent but for all its power, the Portuguese Federation became isolated by Europeans and many western countries for what they considered its “imperialistic” actions, the establishment of several Portuguese satellite nations. The USA was especially hostile towards the Portuguese Federation. It tightened its restrictions on technology and trade with the Portuguese Federation and allies. It placed considerable pressure on other NATO countries and western countries to restrict technology and trade with the Portuguese Federation. The British, Portuguese Federation largest European trading partner was foremost on the American’s list of countries whom it targeted. The British Labor government already hostile to the Federation doubled down on its resolve to cut the British-Portuguese economic-military cord that in many opinions had allowed the Portuguese to survive and flourish. While the country was economically aligned with the Portuguese Federation with British manufactures and businesses accounted for almost 25% of all economic activity in the Portuguese Federation and more importantly it was estimated that 10% of all British jobs were reliant on trade with Portuguese Federation in some manner the government believed the British would come out of the process fine. As the British politicians and public turned against the Federation many British companies looked with worry at the loss of such an important market.
The African continent at the end of the 1960s was divided by several political and military groups and organizations. Dominating the continent was the Portuguese Federation and the various aligned countries called Lusitania Alliance. The second group which also rivaled the Portuguese were the French with their scattered French overseas provinces and the reformed French Community. At the end of the 1960s the French Community was divided into two camps those that were also allied with the Federation (Mali-Senegal Federation, Guinea, Benin and Gabon) and the rest which had diplomatic relations with the Federation. Opposing both the Federation/Lusitania Alliance and France/French Community was Arab League Alliance and Pan African Alliance. Stuck in the middle was the much-diminished British Commonwealth and non-aligned countries.
Political – Military Alignment of African Continent in 1969
[1] The UN and western countries demanded that the Portuguese turn over the leaders to the International Court for trial, but the Portuguese rejected the demands and setup their own trials which were open to observers. In December 1969 the Portuguese withdrew from the International Criminal Court. Meanwhile Soviets demanded complete immediate Portuguese withdrawal and release of all captives.
[2] Pan African and Arab League nations followed Egyptian lead in refusing to negotiate with the aim of forcing the occupying country to withdraw due to security and insurgency attacks.
[3] Negotiations with Gabon and France had commenced during the spring of 1968 trying to resolve the issue of Republic of Congo. At first both Gabon and France wanted the country to be reestablished with same borders and the Portuguese agreed. The difficult part was implementing the agreement. The plan was for Portuguese to clear out the opposing forces and both France and Gabon to help establish an independent Congo. The first part of the plan went off without any major problem and the Portuguese were able to defeat communist forces by end of August but when the northern tribes were informed of the plan to reunite the country they were opposed to it due to previous negative experience with dominance by Kongo tribe in the south. In September, an agreement was reached between the main northern Congo tribes Sangha, M'Bochi, Teke and Gabon for their incorporation as part of Gabon but with considerable autonomy.
[4] With the establishment of Republic of Rhodesia and the continued occupation of strip of land in South Africa along with Swaziland thousands of South African refugees still living in Portuguese Federation started moving into these areas. The move was encouraged by the Portuguese who saw it as way to lessen the huge burden of the refugee camps as well as provide enhanced security in those areas.
The Portuguese Federation had achieved a decisive military victory over 3 major African powers in less than one month but could not achieve peace treaty with any of its adversaries. It was left trying to make the best of a bad situation. What it could not do was simply withdraw its forces and hope that it would no longer be threatened. This scenario while demanded to by many in west, the UN and the Soviets especially was not even considered when its adversaries refused to even recognize the Federation or its right to exist. Therefore it decided the best alternative was to create friendly governments in many of its neighbors. This could of been the end but the refusal to even sit down with the Federation by its adversaries backfired on them and new countries emerged from the occupied territory. That the Federation found willing partners both on a national level and political level spoke of the deep divisions within Africa.
The French too have decided to flex their diplomatic and military muscle by reforming the French Community, very much under French control and aligned to it. The African-Arab Alliance had been dealt with a triple jolt, loss to the Federation, France and Israel. While the Pan African Alliance became the African equivalent to the Warsaw Pack. The other major looser diplomatically was the British commonwealth who lost a large number of its members to the Lusitania Alliance and withdrawal from the organization.
Questions/ Comments?
Return in 2 weeks on October 11 as we move across the Atlantic and delve into the Americas & communist threat..
Lusitania
Donor
You are correct that if we look at iotl the communists lacked the sophistication and resources to accomplish this.
ITTL the communists in 1920s did not give up armed struggle but instead advocated not only overthrow of British rule but a “just and equal rule”. Their message over the 1930-1940s slowly gained following. They slowly gained followers in both government positions as well as military. They would never get more than 10-30% of vote in general election but their goal was not to participate in a democracy but to seize power through revolution and both expel all foreigners and establish a socialist country. Many of its policies were also pro Hindu and anti-christian and anti-Muslim. For they argued it was the Muslims who betrayed India to the British.
Their increasing popularity and attacks on Muslims and others in the years following the war provided martyrs to the cause as Indians collaborators with the British showed how the system had been corrupted.
their support with Indian troops and low level Indian officers became a concern to British and there was an ongoing purge of Indian officers and troops giving another example of oppression and us vs them mentality.
the Indian Navy mutiny in Bombay as you stated had no chance of success on its own were it not for certain foreign agents who might of helped in the beginning but unfortunately for both the Indian mutineers and navy several ships’ ammunition blew up causing much destruction, much more than would of been possible if the mutiny had run its course.
the mutiny resulted in widespread government action against the communists which on the surface seemed to weaken them but it drove them more underground and brought many more Indians to their side.
the attack on the Indian parliament was the work on two dozen militants who gained access due to several supporters working inside the building. Once they had gained access they were able to hold the people inside as hostages. The Indian army not thinking they were suicidal thought rightly that they be able to easily defeat the militants inside the building.
the attack by both British and Indian troops went well at first killing several of the militants before they realized they were under attack but in the end the explosives in the room where the hostages were and surrounding the building went off as the last of the militants were being killed and looked like the hostages were being freed.
the loss of the Indian government was the catalyst for both organized and sporadic attacks. Policemen and government workers were targeted. Many killed with nothing but swords. European/British officers out of barracks were attacks. Regular Indian soldiers or officers walked into Indian officers quarters and killed many before they were gunned down. Anarchy and confusion was their best weapon on the days that followed.
communist s were able to steal and over run Indian military installations before an organized response could be organized. Their attacks failed to overthrow the government,[1] even provincial government were able to withstand the attack but weakened and insurgent attacks continued for over a decade.
these insurgents weakened the Indian government and the Indian military sufficiently that both Mysore and Hyderabad left India coupled with military losses to Pakistan shook the trust between military and government. Leading to many purges and attempted coups as military viewed the government as one who failed while government saw military as problem.
[1] the one regional government that fell to the communists was Bombay but speculation and intelligence officials believed they had foreign assistance. While majority believed it was Soviet support a few actually pointed their finger at the Portuguese, who vehemently denied any involvement and stated assisting communist rebels went against everything they stood for.
Portugal got their pink map finally - even in an indirect sense. I wonder how they will cope with losing so much goodwill from Europe. Will they make connections with new economic partners to offset their losses?
Lusitania
Donor
It got screwed and changed to something different.
The creation of the Federation and its plurality giving blacks a vote, even if limited was still the same rights as whites. The laws giving blacks same rights, wages and education opportunities greatly changed the landscape of Southern Africa. Instead of SA and Rhodesia having a partner in the white minority rule they had a bigger adversary. One that as the Federation grew and prospered and blacks and non-whites incomes and standard of living rose without taking away the standard of living of the whites made the Afrikaners very nervous and put them on the defensive. Britain close relationship with the Federation made them distrust Britain also. They responded in the late 1940s and 1950s by closing emigration feeling that the whites who the government felt did not have the same values as they (Afrikaners) did.
The 1950s were the crucial years with the Federation economy doubling in size while the SA economy grew but at much lower pace and much of that due to exports of commodities. Even in Africa SA manufacturing were competing with Portuguese companies in the same markets. Then in 1960s SA political situation changed for the worse with whites finally rejecting National Party for the United. This caused a political crises and subsequent civil war with Nationalist supporters wanting to stop any granting of rights to non-whites.
The subsequent civil war end into 3 way fight with Nationalists, United/Commonwealth and Communists all fighting each other. The United/Commonwealth were the first out of the war and this caused hundreds of thousands of refugees fleeing the nationalists. The Nationalist then went on the offensive against communist insurgents, their supporters and communist forces. This caused a major humanitarian crises with racial cleansing and tens of thousands of new refugees fleeing to the Federation.
The subsequent Portuguese attack destroyed the nationalist's forces ability to fight against the any major force. The blacks then rose up against the Nationalists. The Zulus also took advantage of the situation and both the Federation and British Commonwealth recognized the Kingdom of Zulu. The remaining whites no longer able to fend of blacks fled the black forces and insurgents as SA descended into anarchy. The Portuguese withdrew from majority of SA. The Portuguese withdrew to Namibia, continued occupying northern Botswana, it occupied Rhodesia, and Namibia with the only part of SA it continued occupying was a strip of along east African provinces from Rhodesia to ocean. A subsequent referendum in Portuguese occupied SA resulted in that territory joining Rhodesia.
The ANC led by Nelson Mandela came out of the anarchy as the strongest African party and military force and united SA with the moto SA for blacks, thus driving the remaining non blacks fleeing to neighboring countries. Botswana continued to be battle ground between communists in south and Portuguese backed Botswana in north. SA then got involved by invading southern Botswana and annexing it .
So in Summary
Bostwana - Portuguese aligned country occupying the northern half of country
Namibia - Portuguese aligned country includes wavis bay.
Rhodesia - Portuguese aligned country includes a strip of land running along Eastern SA to the ocean.
Swaziland - Country leaders and administrators had been killed by communists, was populated by most SA refugees and part of Rhodesia
Lesotho - only country to escape the carnage of SA
Zulu - New country carved by the Zulu people
South African Federation - Communist independent (similar to Yugoslavia) surrounded by Portuguese aligned countries and western aligned countries (Lesotho & Zulu). No diplomatic relations with Federation or its newly aligned countries.
Yeah which considering its the 20th century would be best the Portuguese could hope.
As for loss of goodwill the biggest economic hit will be the complete fracture of economic relations with Britain - (more on that in the Foreign Relations). The election of a labor government in Britain who were critical of the Federation suffered greatly with the SA war and Portuguese-African wars. Guess they wanted everything to return to the way they were before the war.
Just found this a few days ago, i quite enjoyed reading it but the last few chapers dont have a threadmark.
I have been wondering where was the nuclear program for while, but I had big chuckle when the soviets threatened to nuke Portugal and Portugal anounced to the world that they had nukes too by nuking some african city.
I also imagine that werhmach's exiles and the german advisors made a huge impact on the portuguese war doctrine the speed of defeating their enemy, fighting everyone at the same time and lets not forget their tech too. Portugal also having a huge jew population also makes it funnier.
I have been wondering where was the nuclear program for while, but I had big chuckle when the soviets threatened to nuke Portugal and Portugal anounced to the world that they had nukes too by nuking some african city.
I also imagine that werhmach's exiles and the german advisors made a huge impact on the portuguese war doctrine the speed of defeating their enemy, fighting everyone at the same time and lets not forget their tech too. Portugal also having a huge jew population also makes it funnier.
Lusitania
Donor
First thank you, glad you enjoying. I will correct the lack of thread marks.
yes Portuguese got a boost from German-emigrants in all in military and civilian industries. in regards to nuclear program they received only a small boast from them the crucial support and cooperation was Israel who were working with the Portuguese in secret (even from the French). We need remember that Portuguese have atoned got their sins of past by being Israel closest friend. They sent soldiers to help it fight their war of independence. These soldiers were instrumental in helping Israel capture all of Jerusalem. The Portuguese before that had provided a refuge forJews both before, during and after the war with estimates of the Portuguese Jewish population reaching 1 million before the creation of Israel. Even after founding of Israel it granted every Jew returning to Israel dual nationality and the ties have only grown since then.
Israel is heavily cooperating with the Portuguese rocket program and both the Portuguese and Israelis used them extensively to attack their opponents in their wars in the 1960s. Both countries destroyed their opponents airfields preventing them from flying and leaving the planes completely open to being destroyed by the two countries planes.
Israel also secretly sent is pilots to federation to train in the new jet bomber and took delivery of 6 of them just before the Portuguese-African war. Thus when Portuguese demonstrated to the world that they were a nuclear power with delivery ability the world became doubly worried for now they knew if the Portuguese had it then the Israelis had it too.
what people sometimes forget was that Portuguese military doctrine and organization was completely reorganized and modeled on werhmach’s program prior to the war. Then after the war thousands came to Portugal and many of same advisors joined the Portuguese military.
Portuguese planes, tanks, armored cars and early technology was all based on acquired German technology. Plus the escape of German high officials aboard one of the last German most advanced submarines. Giving Portuguese the blue prints to not only the submarine but also its torpedos.
therefore the world watches in puzzlement as the Portuguese started manufacturing such a wide range of military hardware which was equal to some of what the British and US was building. Israel was one the federation customers with both Portuguese and French fighters and Portuguese armored vehicles and tanks.
while many condemned the Portuguese benefiting or collaboration of German technology and military hardware the Portuguese would very point to hundreds of former German officials working in Britain or USA. Something neither government was prepared to comment on. When in 1963 at a conference in Boston the Portuguese were again attacked for its collaboration the Portuguese responded by providing a list of 457 former German scientists, engineers and technicians that had or were still working for the US government or US companies on defense contracts. Well that caused a huge international incident with FBI arresting almost everyone at the conference and confiscating every copy of the list it could find. The whole thing was of course overshadowed by the political situation in the US and the ongoing fighting in Cuba but it seemed to shut up any condemnation of Portuguese collaboration.
It is quite funny that by circumstance the Israelis, Portuguese and part of Wehrmacht are in bed together, especially with the type of country the federation is. I also assume that Jews are lobbying for Portugal in the USA, the Americans must really hate Portugal at this point, especially now that they got their hands on nukes and keep getting away with their misdeeds, they can´t just invade Portugal and dismantle the mess that is the "Portuguese colonial empire" now or they will get Azorean missile crises.
Portugal may have lost the UK's market but they won Africa but the UK's lost the Portuguese and African market, kinda a dumb move by Labour government honestly but governments come and go and economic recession will change many voters minds.
Will Portugal find any new friends in Europe? I was hoping for some Germany-Portuguese deal but I can see Germany dealing with Portugal looking really really bad for Germany.
Portugal may have lost the UK's market but they won Africa but the UK's lost the Portuguese and African market, kinda a dumb move by Labour government honestly but governments come and go and economic recession will change many voters minds.
Will Portugal find any new friends in Europe? I was hoping for some Germany-Portuguese deal but I can see Germany dealing with Portugal looking really really bad for Germany.
Lusitania
Donor
Oh there are some very shady guys deep in Portuguese Federation keeping a very low profile. Many whom would of gone to South American countries ended up in the Federation. Its massive recruitment drive following the war brought to the country many individuals with skills the Portuguese needed but they also brought political views inconsistent with the Portuguese Federation. SIS (Portuguese FIB) has actually done a good job of maintaining them both hidden and quiet. Its basically "keep your head down and mouth shut and we don't give a damn what you did before arriving in Federation.
Portuguese had told the Nazis to keep your opinions and ideas to yourself if you want our products and help. The desperation of Germany had forced them to leave the Portuguese to their own and accept what the Portuguese sold them. After the war the Portuguese went recruiting and brought to the country skilled and educated Germans. But kept them in line and many glad to get out of the mess that Germany was in after the war and maybe some of their own deeds accepted the Portuguese demands. Therefore in the 1950s many found themselves working beside Africans, Asians and even Jews and made sure to keep their opinions to themselves otherwise they did not last long. Accidents had a habit of occurring to those who made trouble.
As for the British there was no real problems during the 1950s as the two countries grew and Britain benefited greatly from its closeness with the Federation. Many British companies survived that would not had an industrialized Portuguese Federation not existed. British economy and employment also benefited. The close relationship was not without its detractors and one of the groups most against the relationship was the left especially the intellectuals who both advocated for Britain to grant its colonies independence and refused to accept the Federation and still saw it as colonial empire.
The subsequent wars in late 1950s against Morocco and Guinea strengthened their dislike for the Federation. The Portuguese involvement in the Congo-Katanga conflict resulted in many demonstrations especially in British universities. The election of the labor Party would not of actually resulted in lots of changes in the British - Portuguese relationship for they too realized the extent of Portuguese - British economic link. Their only move against the Federation at the start of the Labor government was the cancelling of all British-Portuguese military agreements and collaborations. (we will discuss the implications of this later in future posts) Then African went up in flame and British government received huge backlash from its agreement to allow the Federation to topple the SA government. Even while they were the biggest critics of the white minority policies of SA and Rhodesia. The defeat of its enemies along with the revelation the Federation was a nuclear power was viewed with shock in Britain but the British Labor government still hoped for a peaceful resolution.
Then things fast turned from bad to worse when the Portuguese first refused to turn over the captured leaders of the various countries that had attacked it to the international court. For the Portuguese believed they be freed. started installing Portuguese aligned governments in Namibia, Zambia and Malawi. The subsequent agreement with the Zulu left the British in a quandary, either support Zulu or see another country align itself with the Federation. They quickly organized meetings and made it seem like the creation of the Zulu nation was done with the knowledge and support of the British government but the whole thing soured the Portuguese - British relationship. Left wing intellectuals and labor party members accused the British government of facilitating the destruction of SA and Portuguese occupation of Africa. Labor congress passed many resolutions that stipulated Britain needed to cut all relations with the Federation. Then the final nail in the coffin was the Federation refusal to withdraw from other countries such as Tanzania and Zaire and the establishment of new countries in these occupied territory. Facing a revolt by labor party members and MP the labor government moved to not only cut military ties with the Federation but all economic ties.
The expulsion of several of these Portuguese aligned countries from British Commonwealth and acceptance into the Lusitanian Economic Union - Community (LEUC) was met with dismay by British and happiness by the LEUC members. So the 1960s ended a the world continued to suffer major economic decline as Arab countries continued to embargo western countries for France, Israel and Federation aggression and occupation of neighboring countries.