A Bull Moose in Office

[SsgtC]

Yet even British merchant captains were initially opposed to the idea, despite far more British ships being sunk than American. Indeed, U-boat sinkings of US ships were extremely rare prior to 1917, only three in 1915 and another three in 1916 - and, given that the Germans are likely to be more cautious in dealing with TR than with Wilson, even these may not happen TTL. So US shippers have little reason to feel endangered.

Incidentally, do you know of any instance pre-1917 where TR ever advocated convoying?

More generally, I'm highly sceptical that a TR in office would even be trying anything of this nature. This TR has not been driven round the twist by having to watch events from the sidelines. Given once more the responsibilities of the Presidency, he is likely to resemble the much saner TR of 1901-09. He probably believes that sooner or later the Germans will force the US into war, but he has no particular reason to hurry it along. Why should he expose himself to the accusation of rushing the country into war just to improve his own chances of another term? He can perfectly well afford to wait, given that it is still conventional wisdom that the Entente are winning anyway.

No, you're probably right. I'm just trying to think of a semi plausible way to give TR a reason to join the war. As for Germany sinking American merchantman, a few months ago, I would have disagreed with you. But now, I think you're 100% correct that it's unlikely Germany would have risked it with TR in office. Unlike Wilson, the Germans had a massive amount of respect for Teddy. With Roosevelt in the Oval Office, I think Germany would be going out of their way to avoid provoking the United States. They actually may even decide against torpedoing the Lusitania. The more I've researched TR for my own timeline, the more convinced I am that he would be doing everything he could too broker a diplomatic solution to the war in Europe. Because if stopping a way between Russia and Japan won him the Nobel Peace Prize, imagine the kind of accolades stopping The Great War would earn him.

 

[NoMommsen]

One can argue that the decision in OTL to resume unlimited submarine warfare showed a certain foolhardiness or at least excessive risk-taking on the part of the German leadership as a whole. My main point is that if TR wants to provoke Germany into war, it does not seem totally implausible that Germany will take the bait.

Fully agree with you on that .

However, on the 'specific' of USW I would like to point on Kaiser Bill being rather strongly and quite a long time against it.
He even fired one of the most prominent pro-USW politicians : his Marine-State Secretary Tirpitz on (not only) this issue.

 

[Mikestone8]

I think Germany would be going out of their way to avoid provoking the United States. They actually may even decide against torpedoing the Lusitania. .

And even if they still torpedo her, the tiniest butterfly could matter.

If Schweiger hesitates a few seconds longer before giving the order, this may result in the torpedo striking near the stern, disabling the ship but not triggering the coal explosion, or whatever that second explosion may have been. In that situation, he can safely surface and allow the crew and passengers to take to the boats, before finishing the job with gunfire. This was what U-boats quite commonly did, since those early ones could carry only a modest number of torpedoes, and used gunfire or demolition charges when they safely could. So there might be only a handful of fatalities, or even conceivably none at all. Would ths create anything like the same storm as the massive casualty list of OTL?

 

[Mikestone8]

Fully agree with you on that .

However, on the 'specific' of USW I would like to point on Kaiser Bill being rather strongly and quite a long time against it.
He even fired one of the most prominent pro-USW politicians : his Marine-State Secretary Tirpitz on (not only) this issue.

And of course the situation in 1917 was very different.

Germany had been fought to a standstill on every front, and to all appearances things could only get worse, as the British troops got more seasoned and the Russian ones better equipped. Both the Russian Revolution and the French Army mutinies were of course still in the future. So as far as the High Command could see, if nothing changed they were heading for defeat in 1917 - unless USW could bring them a victory that year. In short, it looked as if the war was pretty certain to end - one way or the other - in 1917, in which case it would be over before American forces could make much difference. So provoking the US suddenly seemed far less important.

Indeed, one could say that the Germans adopted USW for the same reason that the British adopted convoying - as a counsel of desperation when they could think of nothing better. Pre-1917 neither was yet that desperate.

 

[Rorke]

I am sorry for the delayed updates, school is overwhelming. I am trying to write an election day one now.

 

[SsgtC]

And even if they still torpedo her, the tiniest butterfly could matter.

If Schweiger hesitates a few seconds longer before giving the order, this may result in the torpedo striking near the stern, disabling the ship but not triggering the coal explosion, or whatever that second explosion may have been. In that situation, he can safely surface and allow the crew and passengers to take to the boats, before finishing the job with gunfire. This was what U-boats quite commonly did, since those early ones could carry only a modest number of torpedoes, and used gunfire or demolition charges when they safely could. So there might be only a handful of fatalities, or even conceivably none at all. Would ths create anything like the same storm as the massive casualty list of OTL?

If he waits a few seconds longer, he'd probably just miss. If he does hit her, regardless of where, there's scroll going to be a large loss of life. Not as large as IOTL, but it'll still be enough to grab attention. The problem, is in Lucy's watertight subdivisions. She was built to Admiralty standards, which meant she was subdivided the way a warship would be. Her coal bunkers were along the hull, running fore and aft. That formed a small watertight compartment (minus the coal scuttles). Then you had the actual compartment behind the bunker. But here's where her Achilles heel is. Unlike Titanic, whose watertight compartments ran the full width of the hull, Lusitania's were further subdivided by a longitudinal bulkhead centered on her keel. Meaning the flooding would all be contained on one side of the ship. Which would induce a list. And unlike a true warship, Lusitania didn't have a way to counterflood any spaces on the other side of the ship to stabilize herself.

So eventually, she would have turned turtle. But before she did, at least half the lifeboats would have become unusable from either swinging too far away from the side of the ship, thus keeping anyone from boarding them, or from swinging inboard and preventing them from being launched.

Where the Admiralty screwed up in insisting Lucy be built the way she was, is that they never considered the fact that an ocean liner is significantly taller than a warship, and has a much higher percentage of her hull above the water. Which means a higher center of gravity. Which makes her more vulnerable to capsizing due to flooding.

 

[The Byronic Hero]

Do it do it do it do it do it do it, run Wilson over with a bus and do it do it do it do it!

Meanwhile, secretly listening in...
"I think an ATL is trying to kill me again."

 

[Mikestone8]

Do it do it do it do it do it do it, run Wilson over with a bus and do it do it do it do it!

No problem about running over Wilson, but in that event it's probably either Clark or Bryan.

 

[Amadeus]

No problem about running over Wilson, but in that event it's probably either Clark or Bryan.

Without Wilson, Bryan most likely supports another reformer like Marshall in order to stop Clark. I don't see how that leads to TR's election.

 

[SsgtC]

Without Wilson, Bryan most likely supports another reformer like Marshall in order to stop Clark. I don't see how that leads to TR's election.

If butterflying Wilson leads to the Democrats nominating a Conservative candidate instead of a Progressive, Roosevelt might be able to pull it off. It's still million-to-one odds though. You really need a way for TR to get the Republican nomination, and ideally, prevent the split in the party between TR and Taft. Maybe Taft gets some sort of illness and elects not to seek reelection?

 

[Amadeus]

Maybe Taft gets some sort of illness and elects not to seek reelection?

He wouldn't support Roosevelt, who he considered a dangerous radical. Even in the event of ill health I think Taft would still run out of a sense of duty to block TR. As for TR going third party, he could do it if he takes a few more votes from the Republicans (perhaps Progressive leaders like Borah and LaFollette endorse him instead of sitting out the general election campaign) and he cuts into the Democratic vote as well. But that would be very difficult and it all hinges upon who the Democrats nominate.

 

[SsgtC]

He wouldn't support Roosevelt, who he considered a dangerous radical. Even in the event of ill health I think Taft would still run out of a sense of duty to block TR. As for TR going third party, he could do it if he takes a few more votes from the Republicans (perhaps Progressive leaders like Borah and LaFollette endorse him instead of sitting out the general election campaign) and he cuts into the Democratic vote as well. But that would be very difficult and it all hinges upon who the Democrats nominate.

No, I doubt Taft would endorse him. Not unless TR could give Taft something in return (Chief Justice, SCOTUS is the only thing that comes to mind). And even then, it's doubtful. Maybe if Taft is completely incapacitated? But not dead. And have it happen a month or less before the Republican National Convention. Then there's no time for the Party leaders to find a new, popular candidate and TR could get nominated almost by default (if he agrees to tone down some of his more radical ideas).

 

[Rorke]

March 28th, 1910,
Cairo, Egypt

Theodore Roosevelt sat on the patio of the Egyptian cafe reading a four day old copy of the New York Times. He had picked it up from one of the international bazaars that flourished in the city, and he was disappointed with the lack of fresh news coming out of the states. He sipped his mug of coffee as he flipped through the pages of the paper. Buried about 3 sheets in was the headline:


PRINCETON PRESIDENT RUN DOWN IN STREET

He squinted and read closer.

President of Princeton University and political up and comer Woodrow Wilson was tragically struck down by a horse drawn carriage yesterday morning in Trenton, witnesses say...

Roosevelt immediately lost interest in the article. He drained his mug and put it down on the table, paying for his drink. He folded the paper and stuck it under his armpit and walked out onto the street, being careful to look both ways. This was his last day in Egypt before he headed off for Europe. He had a meeting scheduled with Franz Joseph and dammit he was not going to miss his ship.

 

[Sevarics]

What does Roosevelt do about the escalating situation with Mexico?

 

[SsgtC]

January 28th, 1910,

Political up and comer Woodrow Wilson

In January 1910, Woodrow Wilson was still President of Princeton University. While he was beginning to get involved in Politics, it would be September before before he was officially nominated as a candidate for Governor. The paper would likely still refer to him as President as Princeton University at this time. He was just starting to be seen as an option for politics.

 

[Rorke]

In January 1910, Woodrow Wilson was still President of Princeton University. While he was beginning to get involved in Politics, it would be September before before he was officially nominated as a candidate for Governor. The paper would likely still refer to him as President as Princeton University at this time. He was just starting to be seen as an option for politics.

Mega oversight on my part. I apologize.

 

[SsgtC]

Mega oversight on my part. I apologize.

Don't sweat it. Honestly, the man went from President of Princeton to President of the United States in 2 years. It would be very easy to assume he'd been involved in Politics longer.

 

[Rorke]

I will post a new update tomorrow. I hope y'all think it's going well.

 

[Rorke]

What does Roosevelt do about the escalating situation with Mexico?

You will just have to wait and see

 

[David T]

If butterflying Wilson leads to the Democrats nominating a Conservative candidate instead of a Progressive, Roosevelt might be able to pull it off. It's still million-to-one odds though. You really need a way for TR to get the Republican nomination, and ideally, prevent the split in the party between TR and Taft. Maybe Taft gets some sort of illness and elects not to seek reelection?

No genuine conservative had any chance to get the Democratic nomination in 1912. If it isn't Wilson, it will probably be Clark, who, despite Bryan's grumbling, was an effective and progressive legislator.

The two "conservatives" most often mentioned--Judson Harmon and Oscar W. Underwood--were vehemently opposed by Bryan, and had very little chance of getting the nomination. Yet even they were not reactionaries. (No doubt Bryan had a grudge against Harmon for his failure to support Bryan in 1896, when Harmon was Cleveland's Attorney General. This was also true of Wilson, of course, but to Bryan the cases were different: one was "a trained officer in the Democratic army," the other "a scholarly recluse." https://books.google.com/books?id=wKAeAQAAMAAJ&pg=PA66) On Harmon's record in Ohio, David Sarasohn writes in The Party of Reform: Democrats in the Progressive Era, pp. 112-13:

"Just as La Follette's Wisconsin served as the insurgent ideal, Ohio became the Democratic reform showcase. Governor Judson Harmon, despite Bryan's constant attacks on him as a reactionary, signed a sizable amount of progressive legislation. Johnsonian Democrats [i.e., followers of Tom L. Johnson, reform mayor of Cleveland] in the legislature may have fought harder for the bills than did the management-minded governor, but Harmon supported their efforts, and appeared before the party caucus to remind it of its obligations to the platform. In his first term Ohio reorganized its tax structure, raising the valuation of railroad property from $166 million to $580 million. In his second term, a more Democratic legislature set up a Public Utilities Commission and passed a strong corrupt practices act, a ten-hour maximum workday and a fifty-four-hour workweek for women workers, and an optional worker's compensation bill. The latter, and other labor legislation, was introduced by William Green, a Democratic state senator from the coal districts who would later succeed Gompers as the head of the AFL. 'It would be unfair to Judson Harmon,' argued his successor [James Cox], 'to assert that he was not a constructive liberal.'"

As for Underwood, Sarasohn writes (p. 99) that he "had come to Congress in 1895 as a strong supporter of labor, free silver, and an income tax and rapidly rose to leadership positions. If his later marriage to a Birmingham steel heiress seemed to have taken the edge off his reformism, he was still far from a standpatter and closely followed the party line on most issues." In any event, Underwood was almost purely a regional candidate, with very little support outside the South.