The idea I was getting at was that even if TR could not get a declaration of war out of Congress, he might by executive action do something to put Germany in a position where it would either declare war or do something (e.g., an earlier resort to unlimited submarine warfare) which would make a declaration of war by Congress politically feasible. This of course assumes that Germany will be foolhardy enough to let itself be provoked, but I don't see why it's implausible to see Kaiser Bill being foolhardy...
A Bull Moose in Office
- Thread starter Rorke
- Start date
The idea I was getting at was that even if TR could not get a declaration of war out of Congress, he might by executive action do something to put Germany in a position where it would either declare war or do something (e.g., an earlier resort to unlimited submarine warfare) which would make a declaration of war by Congress politically feasible. This of course assumes that Germany will be foolhardy enough to let itself be provoked, but I don't see why it's implausible to see Kaiser Bill being foolhardy...
True, I can see why my "different circumstances" made it look like I meant after the election, but I was referring to a train wreck that occurred in, I believ, September of 1912. True, it would still be up to the DNC whether to pull him from the ticket, but if he refuses and tries to remain hidden and make it look like he's able to keep runing, he might get enough people to keep him on the ballot. It would still be different than OTL, but not radically different.
SsgtC
Banned
He would probably do something like FDR did 25 years later: declare the Eastern half of the Atlantic a "Nuetrality Zone," have American warships actively patrol the zone with orders to shoot on sight any "unidentified" foreign warships (i.e. German), and escort convoys to the halfway point with the option to escort them farther "at the discretion of the commanding officer" (read: most of the time). This aggressive stance will eventually cause an incident at sea resulting in a DoW. Probably within 6 months or so.
Though of course if the seriousness of his condition is kept from them, Democratic voters have no reason not to vote for him, and the true situation will come out only after the election.
Incidentally, Iirc Wilson's mishap was a car accident, not a train wreck, and happened just before the election. Wilson struck his head on the roof of the car, but suffered only a minor scalp wound. See
https://www.newspapers.com/image/174920303/?terms=wilson+accident
What convoys?
The RN was dead against convoying and adopted it in 1917 virtually as a counsel of despair when they could think of nothing else to do. The USN was much the same, which was why Wilson opted for arming US merchantmen rather than convoying them.
SsgtC
Banned
Oh I know historically the idea of a convoy was not looked upon favorably. But if TR is trying to provoke a war, he may order the USN too begin convoying merchants regardless of what the UK does.
Has he any authority to order US merchant ships to travel in convoy when the US is not at war?
SsgtC
Banned
I'm honestly not sure. I know the Coast Guard and Navy can prevent ships from leaving Port until they say so. That could be one way of forcing it. Of course, he could also just persuade the shipping lines that sailing in a convoy escorted by armed US Warships was the best way of ensuring their ships and men's safety. "After all, if those bastard Germans were willing to sink Lusitania, imagine what they'd do to your ship," would probably get him pretty rapid cooperation.
#001
March 23rd, 1910
Trenton, New Jersey
Woodrow Wilson stepped out into the sunlight. He blinked as his eyes adjusted to the light out front of the statehouse. As he stepped out onto the street, a man shouted at him, directing his attention to the right.
"Oh hello John!"
Wilson was so enthralled in his conversation with the man that he didn't hear the pounding of the horse's hooves.
He didn't hear the shouting of the carriage driver.
The last thing his brain processed before he was ground into the pavement by the momentum of the carriage was the sight of John dashing towards him in a vain attempt to push him out of the way.
Trenton, New Jersey
Woodrow Wilson stepped out into the sunlight. He blinked as his eyes adjusted to the light out front of the statehouse. As he stepped out onto the street, a man shouted at him, directing his attention to the right.
"Oh hello John!"
Wilson was so enthralled in his conversation with the man that he didn't hear the pounding of the horse's hooves.
He didn't hear the shouting of the carriage driver.
The last thing his brain processed before he was ground into the pavement by the momentum of the carriage was the sight of John dashing towards him in a vain attempt to push him out of the way.
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Yet even British merchant captains were initially opposed to the idea, despite far more British ships being sunk than American. Indeed, U-boat sinkings of US ships were extremely rare prior to 1917, only three in 1915 and another three in 1916 - and, given that the Germans are likely to be more cautious in dealing with TR than with Wilson, even these may not happen TTL. So US shippers have little reason to feel endangered.
Incidentally, do you know of any instance pre-1917 where TR ever advocated convoying?
More generally, I'm highly sceptical that a TR in office would even be trying anything of this nature. This TR has not been driven round the twist by having to watch events from the sidelines. Given once more the responsibilities of the Presidency, he is likely to resemble the much saner TR of 1901-09. He probably believes that sooner or later the Germans will force the US into war, but he has no particular reason to hurry it along. Why should he expose himself to the accusation of rushing the country into war just to improve his own chances of another term? He can perfectly well afford to wait, given that it is still conventional wisdom that the Entente are winning anyway.
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Interesting. any thoughts as to whether this gives us President Bryan or President Champ Clark?
Just as a side note, though I know how much "liked" the trope a a silly, running loos Kaiser Bill is and redardless how "foolhardy" many of his pronouncements and public as well as private statements were ...
His actual influence on politics after the Daily-Telegraph affair had lead to the discharge of v.Bülow as Chancellor in 1909 was rather low.
The last time he politically 'moved' something was the 6-hours-delay of the german deployment on evening 1st August 1914.
After the war had started he was almost completly sidelined - not at least by his own choice not to involve himself.
Moving things in an ATL into a wished for way by Kaiser Bill "foolhardiness" would IMHO be a rather "cheap" move.
Mind you I'm not sure how it helps if your objective is to elect TR. The Democratic hopefuls were all pretty "mainstream" and any of them would probably get much the same vote, give or take a percentage point or two, as Wilson did OTL.
One can argue that the decision in OTL to resume unlimited submarine warfare showed a certain foolhardiness or at least excessive risk-taking on the part of the German leadership as a whole. My main point is that if TR wants to provoke Germany into war, it does not seem totally implausible that Germany will take the bait.
Not enough to make any major difference. And in any case, if they lose a few votes to TR (or, far more likely, to Debs who was a former Democrat) they likely make up for it by gaining a few conservative votes from Taft.
Note that even in 1904, when the Democratic nominee was far more conservative than any of the 1912 hopefuls, Bryan Democrats reacted by abstaining rather than voting for TR. The latter's 1904 popular vote was greater than McKinley's in 1900, but this was largely due to population increase. Democrats showed little inclination to vote for him.
Incidentally, is it clear just how much ordinary voters cared whether a candidate was "Progressive" or not? Voter turnout nosedived from 65.4% in 1908 to 58.8% in 1912, suggesting that many Americans greeted the whole furore with a yawn. And it may be significant that after 1912 the Republicans steadily recovered, making sizeable gains in the 1914 House elections, then pulling virtually level in 1916, which raises doubts about how passionately Progressive the average American really was.
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