I was trying for quite a while to be even-handed but this would require changes rising to almost ASB level and I gave up. Now the question is how much I’m going to screw the history. 😉
No GNW (or “Peter goes South”)
- Thread starter alexmilman
- Start date
Ouch well at least Li Hongzhang is just disgraced and not executed and looks like Russia is getting involved.
It's time for some map painting and Russia to become 11.6% Han thanks to massive annexations/s
Though yeah, I myself wonder how Britain's been taking being '''boxed out'' they never experienced the sheer height of power they did in the OTL but suspect it's time for them to flip sympathies to China (in exchange for some stuff of course).
Over all though I will say the Qing bubble bursting is not going to be pretty.
It's time for some map painting and Russia to become 11.6% Han thanks to massive annexations/s
Though yeah, I myself wonder how Britain's been taking being '''boxed out'' they never experienced the sheer height of power they did in the OTL but suspect it's time for them to flip sympathies to China (in exchange for some stuff of course).
Over all though I will say the Qing bubble bursting is not going to be pretty.
There are few things more dangerous than the obvious conclusions (did I just uttered an aphorism? well, never mind). Why “doing something” has to be “doing something foolish”? As was done in OTL. 😜
They were on China’s side in OTL. Kind of. They are doing the same (emitting certain amount of a hot air) ITTL.
There is still some time before this happens…
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Personally the best option would really be division of Manchuria with Russia taking up North as its Vassal/Protectorate and potentially arranging for population exchange between Han mainland and Manchu North with Manchus inhabiting Northern parts that aren't as inhabited by Han people thus killing of any potential future territorial pretensions.
Regarding Qing Empire, while dark times are ahead European powers did ultimately preferred to keep weak Qing regime in power, one that was willing to guarantee their concessions, I don't really see this changing.
Long term best option for Russia would be that new (native Han) dynasty rises to Qings place and denounces Qing (and their territories) as non Han dynasty.
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True enough that is likely the best case for dealing Manchuria given it's not completely swamped with Han.
Though that's true, it's likely sooner or later a Han will take power in China and it's best they denounce the Qing's empire or at least pushed into looking at other direction like extending Yunnan away from Russia.
Question is what does Russia gain out of this. Inner Mongolia already has a large Han population, though there certainly can be significant border adjustments in favor of Outer Mongolia. In this timeline, Xinjiang is already Russian as Dzungaria. Taiping, etc mess already occurred, so making a Hui state is challenging. I suppose you could carve off Tibet, but the British may not be amused.
The real prize is Manchuria. Manchuria has a population in excess of 10 million already, but no more than a couple million from the area of the Transmanchurian Railroad north. The Russian Far East will be much more populated than OTL (about 400,000 in outer Manchuria in 1897, tripling by the 1926 census). First it came under Russian control in the 1730s rather than settlement starting in 1850s OTL. Now very few people will be trickling that way for a long time, but it will add up with natural population growth (for instance, Siberia's population from 1700-1897 increased 20-fold). Then the Transsiberian Railroad is running over a decade ahead of schedule. If I had to come up with numbers, 2-300,000 by 1880 , about 1 million by 1897. Siberia of course is also developing faster. 5.7 million in 1897 OTL, earlier railroad alone probably gets that to close to 8 million, but with earlier end to serfdom, better economic development, etc, it probably has been growing faster for a long time, which snowballs with natural growth, likely easily exceeds 10 million. Basically, I'd say trans-Ural is probably roughly 1914 level at this point.
Kriss's Manchuria plan doesn't really work. There just are not enough Manchus in Manchuria (or China) who will be interested in being resettled (or to be honest at all). It will be a *lot* easier to bring in Russians and nudge out excess Chinese than try to do sort of Manchu swap. Yes there is the Chinese population, but that is controllable. Will there be some people slipping in? Sure, but can be contained enough to not really be a population-level issue. Like they aren't just hanging around, they largely want to be farmers, have Russians increasingly own the land and clear out squatters and that largely deals with it, even without more systematic handling. Like Russia managed to limit the growth of the Chinese population in Outer Manchuria even before the Transsiberian Railroad.
The real prize is Manchuria. Manchuria has a population in excess of 10 million already, but no more than a couple million from the area of the Transmanchurian Railroad north. The Russian Far East will be much more populated than OTL (about 400,000 in outer Manchuria in 1897, tripling by the 1926 census). First it came under Russian control in the 1730s rather than settlement starting in 1850s OTL. Now very few people will be trickling that way for a long time, but it will add up with natural population growth (for instance, Siberia's population from 1700-1897 increased 20-fold). Then the Transsiberian Railroad is running over a decade ahead of schedule. If I had to come up with numbers, 2-300,000 by 1880 , about 1 million by 1897. Siberia of course is also developing faster. 5.7 million in 1897 OTL, earlier railroad alone probably gets that to close to 8 million, but with earlier end to serfdom, better economic development, etc, it probably has been growing faster for a long time, which snowballs with natural growth, likely easily exceeds 10 million. Basically, I'd say trans-Ural is probably roughly 1914 level at this point.
Kriss's Manchuria plan doesn't really work. There just are not enough Manchus in Manchuria (or China) who will be interested in being resettled (or to be honest at all). It will be a *lot* easier to bring in Russians and nudge out excess Chinese than try to do sort of Manchu swap. Yes there is the Chinese population, but that is controllable. Will there be some people slipping in? Sure, but can be contained enough to not really be a population-level issue. Like they aren't just hanging around, they largely want to be farmers, have Russians increasingly own the land and clear out squatters and that largely deals with it, even without more systematic handling. Like Russia managed to limit the growth of the Chinese population in Outer Manchuria even before the Transsiberian Railroad.
Honestly it seems like given the problems that the Russians have already been having with the Chinese minority in the east, I don’t see why they would be too keen on obtaining a couple of million more from annexing all or part of Manchuria? Russia doesn’t exactly lack land, as its population grows naturally there is plenty of land that Russian settlers will be able to farm. Which both surely will help keeping that strata of society loyal to the government for the foreseeable future. The only thing that might upset that is the idea that the state is handing out farmland to foreigners let alone racially different foreigners like the Chinese so I doubt there would be any great will to have Chinese immigration to the empty farmland of the east either, but I could be wrong.
The most advantageous thing that Russia might be able to get out of China would be propping up a large Mongolian puppet state. It would provide Russia with a much less exposed border, while providing a local ally that would also be open to Russia economic exploitation. Also has the Benefit of neither being threatening to Japan or Britain. Even China while they would not like it, Likely won’t have the same revanchist feelings towards a detached ethnic minority state as they would to Manchuria which is the ethnic homeland to the ruling Chinese dynasty/ruling caste.
The most advantageous thing that Russia might be able to get out of China would be propping up a large Mongolian puppet state. It would provide Russia with a much less exposed border, while providing a local ally that would also be open to Russia economic exploitation. Also has the Benefit of neither being threatening to Japan or Britain. Even China while they would not like it, Likely won’t have the same revanchist feelings towards a detached ethnic minority state as they would to Manchuria which is the ethnic homeland to the ruling Chinese dynasty/ruling caste.
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I agree really, ending a legal loophole in Manchuria (as stated in previous update, maybe add some deportations if necessary), plus autonomous and maybe later independent Outer Mongol state seems like reasonable solution for Russia that won't raise any eyebrows .
Some sort of autonomy for Manchuria as a whole, or part of it is useless as its inhabited by the Han People and is home to the ruling dynasty which would create only problems down the line (my population swap plan probably won't work).
And as stated Russia already has enough land in the east, so there's no need to expand further in it, especially if it's going to create future problems. Plus once again it's important to note that Qing Empire and China specifically aren't going anywhere as European powers weren't in the mood to partition them as much as to secure their concessions and while spheres of influence were a thing they were mostly a thing in coastal areas, but officially everyone agreed that they don't want to partition Qing Empire, everyone but Japan but with war going better for Qing they might agree to mainstream stance, plus otl Qing land army was seen as a real factor, with better performance against Japan this might stay true.
Some sort of autonomy for Manchuria as a whole, or part of it is useless as its inhabited by the Han People and is home to the ruling dynasty which would create only problems down the line (my population swap plan probably won't work).
And as stated Russia already has enough land in the east, so there's no need to expand further in it, especially if it's going to create future problems. Plus once again it's important to note that Qing Empire and China specifically aren't going anywhere as European powers weren't in the mood to partition them as much as to secure their concessions and while spheres of influence were a thing they were mostly a thing in coastal areas, but officially everyone agreed that they don't want to partition Qing Empire, everyone but Japan but with war going better for Qing they might agree to mainstream stance, plus otl Qing land army was seen as a real factor, with better performance against Japan this might stay true.
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New players
311. New players
Mongolia.
Background. The big problems in Qing-owned Mongolia started after the Taiping Rebellion: due to the huge expenses and losses of a revenue the Qing government needed silver. As a part of solution it changed the taxation system in Mongolia ordering its population to pay taxes not in a cattle, as was always done, but in silver. The obvious problem for the Mongols was that they did not have any silver and the only way to get it was to borrow from the Chinese money-lenders under a very high interest and to pay them with a cattle which these Chinese were taking at the “discount price” and selling in China. As a result, by 1894 a number of the livestock in Mongolia decreased at least 10 times down to a meager 1.5 million heads [3].
Then, starting from the mid 1880s, the Guangxu Emperor launched its reforms policy which included a massive assimilation program. A seemingly abstract idea of turning all population of the empire into the “uniform Chinese” had, in the case of Mongolia, a practical component: a massive influx of the Han and “modernization” of the traditional military system was intended to create a reliable buffer on the North to prevent possible danger of the Russian invasion. The Chinese were permitted to settle on the Mongolian territory, the Mongols had been permitted to speak Chinese and Chinese-Mongolian marriages were permitted. To conduct his reforms the emperor appointed a Manchu, Sando, as his viceroy in Mongolia.
After arriving to Urga, Sando immediately began to implement a "new policy": ten services for the supervision of troops, taxation, trade, government, etc. were organized. Plans were made to colonize Mongolia by Chinese farmers. In 1894, Colonel Tang Zaili arrived in Urga, with a task to reorganizing the Mongolian army, the share of the Mongols in which was to be only 50%; barracks for 400 Chinese infantry were built near Urga. The uncompromising policy of the new administration caused protests from the Mongolian population, but his calls not to change the old order did not yield results.
On one hand, there was a clear and present danger for Mongolia turning from a privileged part of the empire into an ordinary province with a prevailing Han population while on the other secular and spiritual feudal lords of Outer and Inner Mongolia were aware that the consequence of this situation may be not only a break with Pekin and successful opposition to it, but also an excessive strengthening of Russia's position in Mongolia in the conditions of an increasing confrontation between the latter with its southern neighbor.
Dissatisfaction with the activities of the Qing administration kept growing but initially there was no unity and practically all imaginable options had their supporters:
The Mongolian side definitely needed a leader and at least this part was clear, it had to be Ngawang Lobsang Chokyi Nyima Tenzin Wangchug. Not because he had a charismatic personality or outstanding mental or military abilities, most probably this was not the case, definitely not because he belonged to the aristocracy tracing its lineage all the way to Genghis Khan, he did not (actually, there was at least one prominent feudal who had this ancestry and was a capable general), not even because he was a richest man in Mongolia (he was) but because, being Bogdo Gegen VIII, he was the third top ranking figure in the Buddhist hierarchy after Dalai Lama and Panchen Lama and the head of Mongolian Buddhists. So his authority as a leader was not in question and it is not as he was not active in defense of his people and religion. In 1882 he insisted on relocation of the Chinese trade district from Urga because the traders were prohibited from operations nears the Buddhist monasteries. Bogdo-gegen actively protested against the tax increases by Urga’s amban Dae Ling, refused to meet with him and eventually achieved his resignation. Consistent anti-Chinese actions of the young Bogdo-gegen even caused an attempt by the Qing authorities to physically eliminate the undesirable hierarch through poisoning.
In a meantime Sando was making one lapse after another causing numerous incidents and the Mongols kept petitioning the Qing government asking for his removal.
In the spring of 1894 the Mongolian nobility convinced Bogdo-gegen to convene a congress to discuss the declaration of independence. The formal excuse was a traditional holiday, celebrated in July, during which allocation of the taxes was routinely discussed. The congress met on July 10, and Bogdo-gegen directly raised to the assembled princes the question regarding their intentions regarding the "new policy". Eighteen of them denounced submission to China and later, having met outside the city, decided to declare the country's independence.
Delegation led by Tögs-Ochiryn Namnansüren (an influential hereditary prince tracing ancestry back to Genghis Khan) was sent to Russia to ask for supoort. The letter signed by Bogdo-gegen and three khans of Khalka was asking for help against China, including military, in exchange for the Russian concessions in Mongolia. At that point, Russia opted for preserving the proprieties supporting Mongolian autonomy within Qing. To protect the returning delegation, the Russian consular guard in Urga was increased. The Russian consul in Pekin notified the Qing government of the fact of the delegation dissatisfied with Chinese colonization, administrative reforms and the increase in China's military presence in Khalkha. It was announced that Russia cannot but be concerned about the situation of the neighboring region, and a warning was issued about the possible consequences of ignoring the demands of the Mongols. Reaction was predictable: Sando demanded from Bogdo-gegen to revoke the request for Russian military presence in Khalkha and he agreed on condition that the “new policy” is going to be abolished. Telegram from Pekin to Urga stated that in some parts its implementation can be postponed. Sando banned the Mongols from any relations with the Russian consulate in Urga, threatening otherwise to introduce an additional five hundred infantry into Urga and increase its Chinese population.
To notify the amban of the Russians' visits to Bogdo-gegen and prevent them, Chinese guards were organized around Bogdo-gegen's palace, and troops were sent to the border to intercept the returning delegation.
Russia. The intentions of the Chinese side had been obvious for the Russian side but, from the Russian perspective, they could also be abpart of a long term Chinese plan to prepare for an aggression against the Russian territories: after all, the similar processes had been going on in Manchuriaea as well, steadily increasing its population by the Han migration. Which means that Russia had to come with the counter-measures of its own and situation in the Outer Mongolia was seemingly presenting some interesting opportunities. And then, why only Outer Mongolia? The main problem was to define what exactly will serve the Russian interests better and on this issue there was no (at least for a while) consensus:
In September Russian troops started arriving to Urga. Bogdo-gegen, under pressure from Sando, promised to inform the Russian government that there was no need for this, but the Russian contingent in Urga continued to grow.[4] Sando asked Pekin for resignation but his request was denied. In a meantime delegation returned and reported results to the highest nobility and clergy, who made an appeal to Bogdo-gegen, expressing the need for independence from the Manchu dynasty, which no longer has a beneficial effect on the Mongolian faith and the state. Bogdo-gegen response with a decree thanking authors of the appeal and prescribing the Mongolian families to unite into a single state of their own. Top Mongolian aristocracy formed a Provisional government of Khalkha and ordered mobilization. 500 riders came immediately from the nearby area. The Mongolian delegation came to Sando’s residence and declared that Mongolia is getting independent from China and Bogdo-gegen is going to become the Mongolian Emperor. Sando declared that he recognized his past mistakes and promised that he’ll appeal to Peking for the Mongolian autonomy but he was told that he is just being informed about the situation and nobody is going to discuss it. He was given 24 hours to leave the country.
By that time the Chinese garrison in Urga shrunk to 150 soldiers, the rest deserted because they were not receiving salaries. These soldiers were disarmed by the Mongols and Russian Cossacks. Sando, fearing for his life, fled to the Russian consulate and was later escorted to Manchuria.
Some Chinese shops in Urga were looted and burned; the Chinese fled the capital for fear of replitions by the Mongols. The Chinese administration also began to leave the country, some of them requesting the Russian escorts for the safety. Only in one place the Chinese were trying to defend the fortress they were garrisoning but it was easily taken. Bogdo-gogen was proclaimed an emperor and so far the events had been proceeding in a relatively peaceful manner, mostly because government in Pekin did not fully recognized seriousness of the situation and had serious problems with the Japanese.
The Provisional government still had been facing two big problems:
So one of the first things the Provisional government did was to start strengthening its army. It was fortunate to find among the top Mongolian aristocrats two outstanding generals who also happened to be the true patriots, Manlaibaatar (“forefront hero”) Damdinsüren from Inner Mingolia
and Khatanbaatar (“unyelding hero”) Magsarjav.
Both got their honorary titles for a successful taking the Chinese-defended fortress of Khovd and annihilation of the Chhinese relief force.
Obviously, even with its forces being mobilized and armed by the Russians, a newly-proclaimed Mongolian Empire was not strong enough to force Qing to acknowledge its independence and the same goes for the ability to kick the Chinese out of the Inner Mongolia. If Russia wanted to achieve its geopolitical goals without bogging down in a prolonged conflict, it was a time to interfere right now, while the Sino-Japanese war was still going on.
_______________
[1] “After all, the grasshopper is jumping,/And where - it doesn't see.” Kozma Prutkov. “Author’s” comment to this verse: “Written in a moment of despair and embarrassment about the upcoming government reforms.” Kozma Prutkov is a collective pseudonym of a group of the literary inclined aristocratic young men (one of whom was A.K.Tolstoy mentioned in the previous chapters as an author of the easiest way of dealing with the Russian liberals) who wrote in mid XIX a number of the literary parodies and satiric verses.
[2] “The normal heroes always chose a roundabout route.”
[3] In OTL by 1909. Timetable is, again, ahead of the schedule.
[4] There seems to be a world-wide pattern with the “unselfish military help”: once it starts, those who asked for it pretty much cease to matter. 😜
“Madness does not necessarily have to lead to negative consequences for all participants in the process.”
Barbara Tuchman
“When innovation is too difficult to implement, it is a sign that it is not necessary.”
Luc de Clapiers, marquis de Vauvenargues
«Ведь кузнечик скачет,
А куда - не видит.»
Козьма Прутков [1]
«нормальные герои всегда идут в обход» [2]
old movie
“They [the Mongols] drink tea, adding dumplings to it. It is cooked with salt, milk and fat. They also often put toasted flour and ram bone marrow in tea.”
Unknown author
“Herdsmen - residents of the Steppe... lived in debt to Chinese traders, paying for the collected essential goods with the expected offsprings of livestock”
Lomakina
Barbara Tuchman
“When innovation is too difficult to implement, it is a sign that it is not necessary.”
Luc de Clapiers, marquis de Vauvenargues
«Ведь кузнечик скачет,
А куда - не видит.»
Козьма Прутков [1]
«нормальные герои всегда идут в обход» [2]
old movie
“They [the Mongols] drink tea, adding dumplings to it. It is cooked with salt, milk and fat. They also often put toasted flour and ram bone marrow in tea.”
Unknown author
“Herdsmen - residents of the Steppe... lived in debt to Chinese traders, paying for the collected essential goods with the expected offsprings of livestock”
Lomakina
Mongolia.
Background. The big problems in Qing-owned Mongolia started after the Taiping Rebellion: due to the huge expenses and losses of a revenue the Qing government needed silver. As a part of solution it changed the taxation system in Mongolia ordering its population to pay taxes not in a cattle, as was always done, but in silver. The obvious problem for the Mongols was that they did not have any silver and the only way to get it was to borrow from the Chinese money-lenders under a very high interest and to pay them with a cattle which these Chinese were taking at the “discount price” and selling in China. As a result, by 1894 a number of the livestock in Mongolia decreased at least 10 times down to a meager 1.5 million heads [3].
Then, starting from the mid 1880s, the Guangxu Emperor launched its reforms policy which included a massive assimilation program. A seemingly abstract idea of turning all population of the empire into the “uniform Chinese” had, in the case of Mongolia, a practical component: a massive influx of the Han and “modernization” of the traditional military system was intended to create a reliable buffer on the North to prevent possible danger of the Russian invasion. The Chinese were permitted to settle on the Mongolian territory, the Mongols had been permitted to speak Chinese and Chinese-Mongolian marriages were permitted. To conduct his reforms the emperor appointed a Manchu, Sando, as his viceroy in Mongolia.
After arriving to Urga, Sando immediately began to implement a "new policy": ten services for the supervision of troops, taxation, trade, government, etc. were organized. Plans were made to colonize Mongolia by Chinese farmers. In 1894, Colonel Tang Zaili arrived in Urga, with a task to reorganizing the Mongolian army, the share of the Mongols in which was to be only 50%; barracks for 400 Chinese infantry were built near Urga. The uncompromising policy of the new administration caused protests from the Mongolian population, but his calls not to change the old order did not yield results.
On one hand, there was a clear and present danger for Mongolia turning from a privileged part of the empire into an ordinary province with a prevailing Han population while on the other secular and spiritual feudal lords of Outer and Inner Mongolia were aware that the consequence of this situation may be not only a break with Pekin and successful opposition to it, but also an excessive strengthening of Russia's position in Mongolia in the conditions of an increasing confrontation between the latter with its southern neighbor.
Dissatisfaction with the activities of the Qing administration kept growing but initially there was no unity and practically all imaginable options had their supporters:
- To keep appealing to the Qing government for restoration of the old order.
- To try to get autonomy within Qing Empire.
- To try to get independence.
- To try to get independence with the Russian help and guarantee Russian protection.
- To appeal for incorporation into the Russian Empire.
The Mongolian side definitely needed a leader and at least this part was clear, it had to be Ngawang Lobsang Chokyi Nyima Tenzin Wangchug. Not because he had a charismatic personality or outstanding mental or military abilities, most probably this was not the case, definitely not because he belonged to the aristocracy tracing its lineage all the way to Genghis Khan, he did not (actually, there was at least one prominent feudal who had this ancestry and was a capable general), not even because he was a richest man in Mongolia (he was) but because, being Bogdo Gegen VIII, he was the third top ranking figure in the Buddhist hierarchy after Dalai Lama and Panchen Lama and the head of Mongolian Buddhists. So his authority as a leader was not in question and it is not as he was not active in defense of his people and religion. In 1882 he insisted on relocation of the Chinese trade district from Urga because the traders were prohibited from operations nears the Buddhist monasteries. Bogdo-gegen actively protested against the tax increases by Urga’s amban Dae Ling, refused to meet with him and eventually achieved his resignation. Consistent anti-Chinese actions of the young Bogdo-gegen even caused an attempt by the Qing authorities to physically eliminate the undesirable hierarch through poisoning.
In a meantime Sando was making one lapse after another causing numerous incidents and the Mongols kept petitioning the Qing government asking for his removal.
In the spring of 1894 the Mongolian nobility convinced Bogdo-gegen to convene a congress to discuss the declaration of independence. The formal excuse was a traditional holiday, celebrated in July, during which allocation of the taxes was routinely discussed. The congress met on July 10, and Bogdo-gegen directly raised to the assembled princes the question regarding their intentions regarding the "new policy". Eighteen of them denounced submission to China and later, having met outside the city, decided to declare the country's independence.
Delegation led by Tögs-Ochiryn Namnansüren (an influential hereditary prince tracing ancestry back to Genghis Khan) was sent to Russia to ask for supoort. The letter signed by Bogdo-gegen and three khans of Khalka was asking for help against China, including military, in exchange for the Russian concessions in Mongolia. At that point, Russia opted for preserving the proprieties supporting Mongolian autonomy within Qing. To protect the returning delegation, the Russian consular guard in Urga was increased. The Russian consul in Pekin notified the Qing government of the fact of the delegation dissatisfied with Chinese colonization, administrative reforms and the increase in China's military presence in Khalkha. It was announced that Russia cannot but be concerned about the situation of the neighboring region, and a warning was issued about the possible consequences of ignoring the demands of the Mongols. Reaction was predictable: Sando demanded from Bogdo-gegen to revoke the request for Russian military presence in Khalkha and he agreed on condition that the “new policy” is going to be abolished. Telegram from Pekin to Urga stated that in some parts its implementation can be postponed. Sando banned the Mongols from any relations with the Russian consulate in Urga, threatening otherwise to introduce an additional five hundred infantry into Urga and increase its Chinese population.
To notify the amban of the Russians' visits to Bogdo-gegen and prevent them, Chinese guards were organized around Bogdo-gegen's palace, and troops were sent to the border to intercept the returning delegation.
Russia. The intentions of the Chinese side had been obvious for the Russian side but, from the Russian perspective, they could also be abpart of a long term Chinese plan to prepare for an aggression against the Russian territories: after all, the similar processes had been going on in Manchuriaea as well, steadily increasing its population by the Han migration. Which means that Russia had to come with the counter-measures of its own and situation in the Outer Mongolia was seemingly presenting some interesting opportunities. And then, why only Outer Mongolia? The main problem was to define what exactly will serve the Russian interests better and on this issue there was no (at least for a while) consensus:
- The “militant party” argued for a direct annexation insisting that Khalka can’t exist as an independent state because “historically, it has no prerequisites for autonomous governance of the state, since there are no personnel of state figures, military commanders and financiers.” Among other supporters, this party included a number of the high-ranking military who saw annexation as a potential opportunity to, finally, got some military glory.
- Russian industrialists and entrepreneurs spoke from an independent position, and advocated for promoting the desire of the Mongols for state independence and the establishment of a protectorate over this country, but not to import goods into Mongolia (due to the extreme poverty, purchasing potential of the population was to small for forming a serious market), but to export livestock products from Mongolia to Russia.
- There were also supporters of the development of Russia's trade relations with Mongolia, fsvoring creation of autonomous Mongolia under the protectorate of China.
- There was also another point of view: "Mongolia to the Mongols." Its essence was that Mongolia is unable to defend its independence from either China or Russia, and therefore it is necessary to create an autonomous buffer state under the auspices of the union of European States. This was not an abstract fantasy: starting from 1870 Mongolia had been visited by the numerous expeditions from various European countries.
In September Russian troops started arriving to Urga. Bogdo-gegen, under pressure from Sando, promised to inform the Russian government that there was no need for this, but the Russian contingent in Urga continued to grow.[4] Sando asked Pekin for resignation but his request was denied. In a meantime delegation returned and reported results to the highest nobility and clergy, who made an appeal to Bogdo-gegen, expressing the need for independence from the Manchu dynasty, which no longer has a beneficial effect on the Mongolian faith and the state. Bogdo-gegen response with a decree thanking authors of the appeal and prescribing the Mongolian families to unite into a single state of their own. Top Mongolian aristocracy formed a Provisional government of Khalkha and ordered mobilization. 500 riders came immediately from the nearby area. The Mongolian delegation came to Sando’s residence and declared that Mongolia is getting independent from China and Bogdo-gegen is going to become the Mongolian Emperor. Sando declared that he recognized his past mistakes and promised that he’ll appeal to Peking for the Mongolian autonomy but he was told that he is just being informed about the situation and nobody is going to discuss it. He was given 24 hours to leave the country.
By that time the Chinese garrison in Urga shrunk to 150 soldiers, the rest deserted because they were not receiving salaries. These soldiers were disarmed by the Mongols and Russian Cossacks. Sando, fearing for his life, fled to the Russian consulate and was later escorted to Manchuria.
Some Chinese shops in Urga were looted and burned; the Chinese fled the capital for fear of replitions by the Mongols. The Chinese administration also began to leave the country, some of them requesting the Russian escorts for the safety. Only in one place the Chinese were trying to defend the fortress they were garrisoning but it was easily taken. Bogdo-gogen was proclaimed an emperor and so far the events had been proceeding in a relatively peaceful manner, mostly because government in Pekin did not fully recognized seriousness of the situation and had serious problems with the Japanese.
The Provisional government still had been facing two big problems:
- Acknowledgement of independence by Qing government.
- Situation in Inner Mongolia where the Chinese authorities remained in power and, besides pro-independent movement, a strong pro-Qing party also existed.
So one of the first things the Provisional government did was to start strengthening its army. It was fortunate to find among the top Mongolian aristocrats two outstanding generals who also happened to be the true patriots, Manlaibaatar (“forefront hero”) Damdinsüren from Inner Mingolia
and Khatanbaatar (“unyelding hero”) Magsarjav.
Both got their honorary titles for a successful taking the Chinese-defended fortress of Khovd and annihilation of the Chhinese relief force.
Obviously, even with its forces being mobilized and armed by the Russians, a newly-proclaimed Mongolian Empire was not strong enough to force Qing to acknowledge its independence and the same goes for the ability to kick the Chinese out of the Inner Mongolia. If Russia wanted to achieve its geopolitical goals without bogging down in a prolonged conflict, it was a time to interfere right now, while the Sino-Japanese war was still going on.
_______________
[1] “After all, the grasshopper is jumping,/And where - it doesn't see.” Kozma Prutkov. “Author’s” comment to this verse: “Written in a moment of despair and embarrassment about the upcoming government reforms.” Kozma Prutkov is a collective pseudonym of a group of the literary inclined aristocratic young men (one of whom was A.K.Tolstoy mentioned in the previous chapters as an author of the easiest way of dealing with the Russian liberals) who wrote in mid XIX a number of the literary parodies and satiric verses.
[2] “The normal heroes always chose a roundabout route.”
[3] In OTL by 1909. Timetable is, again, ahead of the schedule.
[4] There seems to be a world-wide pattern with the “unselfish military help”: once it starts, those who asked for it pretty much cease to matter. 😜
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As you can see from the new chapter I just posted, your guess was the correct one. 🤗🤗
Why would Russia bother with getting control over a generally hostile area dealing with the thousands of the Honghuzi and tens of millions of the Hans and Manchu who are supporting them? Even the thousands of Chinese in Vladivostok area proved to be too much administratively and not a big bonus economically.
Plus, if independent Mongolia ends up including the Inner Mongolia, then geography of China (Qing, Republic, Manchugo) becomes very “interesting” making aggressive moves against Russia rather difficult. Look at the map.
Yes, the only plausible scenario is such a state being ruled by Manchu dynasty escaping from China, as in OTL. But ITTL this would require a much earlier successful revolution in China, which is slightly too much in the terms of a reality: I doubt that the Powers would allow this to happen in the 1890s.
And, again, what is the sense of arranging for such an autonomy if the locals are generally hostile and commercial operations there require a permanent big military presence and regular “policing” actions which only further alienate the locals. Russian OTL experience in Manchuria was really “challenging” even along the East China RR and ITTL there are no big investments in it forcing a need not to lose the investments.
Well, its ITTL performance is not much better but I’m planning for it to keep resisting for a little bit longer.
I agree. It's better to have a buffer allied state where you can fight the Chinese rather than having millions of not asimilable and problematic Chinese.
I think great part of the problems of OTL Russian Empire was due not knowing where to stop annexing peoples. Why annex rebellious Polish, Armenians, Georgians, Moldavians, even Finnish and Lithuanians when you can have faithful allies buying your products? My ideal would be OTL Mongolia.
Summarizing, being Russia where you have a powerful neighbour, put a buffer state in between.
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What is Slavic population in Central Asia and Russian Far East in comperission to OTL? Earlier conquest of Central Asia and earlier construction of railords means far more settlers. For example: my home region of Chuy in Kyrgyzstan in 20 year of active russian settler migration turned from 90% Kyrgyz majority to 42% Kyrgyz and 54% Slavic population.
Yes. Even without an annexation, making Manchuria Russian “sphere of interests” was a really bad idea, just as adventure with Liaodong Peninsula.
The same goes for any major colonial empire so nothing unique there and no clear criteria for finding the right limit.
Poles were, indeed, a big mistake even putting aside the fact that notion of them being “faithful allies” prior to the Partitions is, shall we say, slightly idealistic (or a very good joke, if you prefer). Well, with CII being labeled as “the Great”, it is probably pointless to point out that as often as not she acted as a stupid cow (the same goes for her pact with Georgia). 😂
“Lithuanians” needs clarification because most of them were Belorussians with whom there were no problems and big part of the rest were Lithuanian peasants with whom there were very little problems or not at all because, unlike their Polonized owners and few members of the “educated class”, they did not give a blip about the PLC. OTOH, the net value of Lithuania was pretty much zero so why bother? Anyway, it was a part of the PLC deal and, as such stupid.
Armenians and Georgians were ..er.. “asking” to be liberated from Persians and Ottomans who had been regularly killing them in big numbers, but I agree: the efforts wasted on conquest of the Caucasus (the Georgians and Armenians were on the wrong side of it with a lot of stubborn Muslims in between) were not worthy of the questionable benefits, which were pretty much limited to oil in Azerbaijan and Chechnia (none of which were the reasons for conquest). IIRC, Russia was more or less lured into it by the fancy stories about the non-existing riches of the region and then one thing led to another with a need to secure the communications, borders, etc. Usual colonial scenario.
Having Georgia and Armenia as the “buffer states” was not working: it had been tried with Georgia (or rather one of the Georgian kingdoms) and failed miserably because it could not stand on its own against the neighbors and its own internal turmoil. Armenia by the early XIX did not have its own state by many centuries and hardly would be sustainable on its own by the same reason as Georgia. You can google map of the Caucasus in the early XIX.
AFAIK, the Moldavians were not problematic and the Finns were quite loyal and grateful for having state of their own first time in a history until Russification started. BTW, if anything, Finland was a buffer state united to the RE.
Ways to get what you want
312. Ways to get what you want
Defining goals. After the Chinese attacks along the Amur, Russian government got aperfect excuse for getting what it wanted. The problem was to figure out what exactly did it want. The answer was not easy and its discussion started well before the Sino-Japanese war. Eventually, it was up to Alexander III to made a final choice among a wide variety of the options. There were 2 “must” items:
In the case of the Amur border, should the same policy be applied to the whole border area by the Amur and Usury rivers with the massive expulsion of the Chinese from the Russian Far East? If not, then, how to separate the peaceful ones from the criminals and, especially the honghuzi?
In the case of Mongolia, should it be only the Outer Mongolia, which was already mostly within the newly proclaimed Mongolian Empire, or should the Inner Mongolia also be included? If yes, then the whole or partially? This was not an idle question. As can be easily seen on the map, inclusion of the Inner Mongolia would put the Qing into a very “interesting” strategic position leaving only a relatively narrow corridor of accessing Manchuria through Lianoning province and, in the case of the continued Japanese military successes, this corridor could become even narrower. So it could be expected that, unless Qing regime is completely crumbling under the Japanese assault, it would try to protect Manchuria and Inner Mongolia. Within this geopolitical framework the Japanese military successes had to be greeted and, if needed, helped.
The second issue related to the Inner Mongolia was its demographics: the bad news was that it had a considerable Han population but the good news was that it was overwhelmingly concentrated on the Hetao Plain (the red rectangle on the map below): a fertile agricultural area squeezed between the Yellow River on the South and the mountains on all other sides with a desert South of the river. Han population there was too big to be easily exterminated or deported but, obviously, it was not going to be loyal to the Mongolian state. Fortunately, the area was nowhere close to the strategic “choking point” and, no matter what the ideas that the new Mongolian government may have (good pastures), it can be good bargain chip when it comes to the final negotiations with the Qing.
With the “must” being reasonably clear and not too controversial, the “options” were causing much greater debate:
The international aspect, as reported by the Foreign Ministry, was not much better and perhaps even worse. #1 would immediately spoil relations with Japan and most probably incline Britain and the US to readjust their backing toward Japan encouraging its leadership to remedy “injustice” by attacking Russia in Manchuria. Even ##2 and 3 will cause the international tensions which could not be justified by a realistic gains. And “tensions” will mean that Russia has to keep permanently at least 150 - 200,000 troops in Manchuria and, in the case of #1 to spent anything between 20 and 40,000,000 rubles on adequately fortifying Liadong Peninsula (and keeping 40 - 50,000 troops there), and move a big part of the Baltic and/or Black Sea newest battleships and cruisers on the Pacific thus causing even greater international tensions. Probably to build more not to leave these seas unprotected.
The “internal” aspect was not much better: any of the options would include a need to deal with tens thousands of the honghuzies with the number disproportionally growing when expanding southwards. Which would be rather opposite to the intended goal of getting rid of the Chinese organized crime on the Russian-controlled territories. Not that dealing with up to 10 millions of the peaceful Chinese looked as an attractive option: even a limited experience of Khabarovsk gubernia was anything but encouraging.
So, to a great disappointment of many entrepreneurship-minding individuals, all these seemingly attractive proposals had been rejected by AIII and Witte, whom he highly valued, had been gently recommended to concentrate on economic development inside the Russian Empire. Being a very intelligent person, Witte knew when to stop pushing his luck.
Leadership.
The next obvious step was more or less a military one: it had to be defined how to achieve the main goals. And, of course, this step involved choosing the proper leader.
One of the potential candidates was lieutenant-general Nikolai Linevich, commander of the 1st Siberian Army Corps and of Amur Military District with headquarters in Khabarovsk. He had reputation of a good administrator, raised the corps he commanded, knew specifics of the area well and was liked by the troops. However, nobody ever described him as “brilliant”.
So the choice had been made in favor of another general who, at that time was probably the only one in the Russian army associated with “brilliance”, which was rather difficult, taking into an account that the country was generally at peace for quite a few decades. General of Infantry Michael Skobelev in the 1880s conducted a truly brilliant operation of finally subduing the rebellious Turkmens, taking their stronghold Geok-Tepe, pacifying the region and finally closing a potential “gap” through which the Brits could try to expand into the Central Asia . Besides requiring extremely complicated logistics (all supplies had to be carried through hundreds kilometers of a desert), operation involved bold military actions and considerable amount of the diplomatic efforts required for convincing the fleeing population to return to their oasises and get disarmed. Experience in a careful planning and preparation of an operation was considered to be extremely important for the current campaign because in any imaginable scenario the main issue was going to be a properly organized logistics and careful reconnaissance. His care of the soldiers was on a scale quite unusual in the Russian army and, not following the popular theories, he was dead set against “winning by spirit” (and the resulting big losses of his own troops).
One of his first orders in new capacity was:
“ I draw the attention of the commanders of the units to their duty to make sure that the lower ranks are adequately fed under any conditions. Once and for all, I demand that not a single day pass in which they would not receive hot food, if the lower ranks are not fed, it comes from the confusion and negligence of the commander. Any of these reasons can lead to dismissal."
Plan. Skobelev’s considerations regarding the planned campaign were following:
The only small thing left was declaration of a war. The ultimatum was issued with a demand to acknowledge the Mongolian independence, accept abolishment of the 64 villages settlement and pay a hefty compensation for the damages done by the attacks on Russian territory and subjects. Predictably, Qing refused and the war was declared.
The official note had been delivered to all “powers” interested informing them about unprovoked Chinese attack on the Russian Empire and assuring that Russia does not look for any territorial expansion and that its troops will be withdrawn from Manchuria after the peace treaty is signed and security of the Russian border assured.
Japan got an extra message informing that the Russian operations in Manchuria and Mongolia are not going to interfere with the military activities of Japan and its goals in the ongoing war. Proposal was made to send the liaison officers for better communications and, if Japan desires, to make war related issues more formal.
__________
[1] In OTL M. Skobelev died in 1882 at the age of 38 so in 1894 he would be 51. Circumstances of his death gave birth to the assassination theories: he was vocally anti-German and AIII did not like him making political speeches. ITTL in an absence of the Ottoman War of 1877-78 he is not as popular as in OTL and has a better chance for survival (😉). Bernard Montgomery assessed Skobelev as the world's "ablest single commander" between 1870 and 1914.
[2] Unless this deep jewel of a strategic wisdom boils down to already quoted “the normal heroes are always choosing an indirect road”, it is probably irrelevant but, admittedly, it sounds much more scientific.
[3] In OTL Witte’s project cost huge sums (the full expenditures never were published) to end up as a big flop: «Дальний» (Dailan) never became a significant outlet of the Russian trade (one of the reasons was a small volume of the Russian Far East trade, which could not be changed by the minister’s fantasies). And Port Arthur, was a death trap from the get-go: expenses and materials needed for its adequate defense were too great for the RE’s available resources, besides its harbor was inadequate for the battleships of the early 1900s without the huge excavation works, etc.
“What do you desire?”
‘Lucifer’
“I assure you that our troops [Russia] are excellent, but the commanders leave too much to be desired. Many of them have no sense of responsibility at all.”
“Every bastard can come in handy someday.”
“More than before, circumstances, not principles, govern politics.”
“I consider as the greatest talent someone who sacrifices people as little as possible.”
“Explain to me: will we be responsible to God for the mass of people we killed in battles.”
M. Skobelev [1]
“Honghuz is actually a professional bandit who transfers the craft to his children, but this name is also given to any Chinese who is engaged in robbery even for accidental reasons and temporarily.”
F. Busse
"the mere fact afmarching indirectly towards the enemy and on to the rear o f his dispositions does not constitute a strategic indirect approach. Strategic art is not so simple. Such an approach may start by being indirect in relarion to the enemy's front, but by the very directness of its progress towards his rear may allow him to change his dispositions so that it soon becomes a direct approach to his new front. " [2]
Liddell Hart
‘Lucifer’
“I assure you that our troops [Russia] are excellent, but the commanders leave too much to be desired. Many of them have no sense of responsibility at all.”
“Every bastard can come in handy someday.”
“More than before, circumstances, not principles, govern politics.”
“I consider as the greatest talent someone who sacrifices people as little as possible.”
“Explain to me: will we be responsible to God for the mass of people we killed in battles.”
M. Skobelev [1]
“Honghuz is actually a professional bandit who transfers the craft to his children, but this name is also given to any Chinese who is engaged in robbery even for accidental reasons and temporarily.”
F. Busse
"the mere fact afmarching indirectly towards the enemy and on to the rear o f his dispositions does not constitute a strategic indirect approach. Strategic art is not so simple. Such an approach may start by being indirect in relarion to the enemy's front, but by the very directness of its progress towards his rear may allow him to change his dispositions so that it soon becomes a direct approach to his new front. " [2]
Liddell Hart
Defining goals. After the Chinese attacks along the Amur, Russian government got aperfect excuse for getting what it wanted. The problem was to figure out what exactly did it want. The answer was not easy and its discussion started well before the Sino-Japanese war. Eventually, it was up to Alexander III to made a final choice among a wide variety of the options. There were 2 “must” items:
- To have the Amur border issue (pink on the map below) settled in the Russian favor. Which meant that “64 villages” region [3] had to be made strictly Russian with no special rights for the Chinese and no significant Chinese presence whatsoever.
- To have Mongolia independent or autonomous but, in either case under the Russian protection.
In the case of the Amur border, should the same policy be applied to the whole border area by the Amur and Usury rivers with the massive expulsion of the Chinese from the Russian Far East? If not, then, how to separate the peaceful ones from the criminals and, especially the honghuzi?
In the case of Mongolia, should it be only the Outer Mongolia, which was already mostly within the newly proclaimed Mongolian Empire, or should the Inner Mongolia also be included? If yes, then the whole or partially? This was not an idle question. As can be easily seen on the map, inclusion of the Inner Mongolia would put the Qing into a very “interesting” strategic position leaving only a relatively narrow corridor of accessing Manchuria through Lianoning province and, in the case of the continued Japanese military successes, this corridor could become even narrower. So it could be expected that, unless Qing regime is completely crumbling under the Japanese assault, it would try to protect Manchuria and Inner Mongolia. Within this geopolitical framework the Japanese military successes had to be greeted and, if needed, helped.
The second issue related to the Inner Mongolia was its demographics: the bad news was that it had a considerable Han population but the good news was that it was overwhelmingly concentrated on the Hetao Plain (the red rectangle on the map below): a fertile agricultural area squeezed between the Yellow River on the South and the mountains on all other sides with a desert South of the river. Han population there was too big to be easily exterminated or deported but, obviously, it was not going to be loyal to the Mongolian state. Fortunately, the area was nowhere close to the strategic “choking point” and, no matter what the ideas that the new Mongolian government may have (good pastures), it can be good bargain chip when it comes to the final negotiations with the Qing.
With the “must” being reasonably clear and not too controversial, the “options” were causing much greater debate:
- To grab the whole Manchuria (either annexation or “influence zone”) liming Japanese to possession of Korea. This idea caused a considerable enthusiasm among the Navy leadership, arguing that Russia simply can’t exist without an ice free port on the Far East. and certain “patriotic” members of the Duma, mostly with the financial connections. Surprisingly (or not), it was backed by the Finance Minister, Witte, who, by looking on a map, envisioned a gigantic schema of the Russian-dominated Far East with the railroad going across Manchuria all the way to Liaodong Peninsula where a powerful naval base will be established in Lushun and a great trade port created in Dailan.
- More modest proposal was to limit themselves to the Heilongjiang and Jilin provinces thus leaving Liaoning “corridor” to Japanese. Opinions regarding Liaodong Peninsula varied.
- Even more modest proposal was to annex just Heilongjiang, which would be enough to guarantee a complete safety of Vladivostok.
The international aspect, as reported by the Foreign Ministry, was not much better and perhaps even worse. #1 would immediately spoil relations with Japan and most probably incline Britain and the US to readjust their backing toward Japan encouraging its leadership to remedy “injustice” by attacking Russia in Manchuria. Even ##2 and 3 will cause the international tensions which could not be justified by a realistic gains. And “tensions” will mean that Russia has to keep permanently at least 150 - 200,000 troops in Manchuria and, in the case of #1 to spent anything between 20 and 40,000,000 rubles on adequately fortifying Liadong Peninsula (and keeping 40 - 50,000 troops there), and move a big part of the Baltic and/or Black Sea newest battleships and cruisers on the Pacific thus causing even greater international tensions. Probably to build more not to leave these seas unprotected.
The “internal” aspect was not much better: any of the options would include a need to deal with tens thousands of the honghuzies with the number disproportionally growing when expanding southwards. Which would be rather opposite to the intended goal of getting rid of the Chinese organized crime on the Russian-controlled territories. Not that dealing with up to 10 millions of the peaceful Chinese looked as an attractive option: even a limited experience of Khabarovsk gubernia was anything but encouraging.
So, to a great disappointment of many entrepreneurship-minding individuals, all these seemingly attractive proposals had been rejected by AIII and Witte, whom he highly valued, had been gently recommended to concentrate on economic development inside the Russian Empire. Being a very intelligent person, Witte knew when to stop pushing his luck.
Leadership.
The next obvious step was more or less a military one: it had to be defined how to achieve the main goals. And, of course, this step involved choosing the proper leader.
One of the potential candidates was lieutenant-general Nikolai Linevich, commander of the 1st Siberian Army Corps and of Amur Military District with headquarters in Khabarovsk. He had reputation of a good administrator, raised the corps he commanded, knew specifics of the area well and was liked by the troops. However, nobody ever described him as “brilliant”.
So the choice had been made in favor of another general who, at that time was probably the only one in the Russian army associated with “brilliance”, which was rather difficult, taking into an account that the country was generally at peace for quite a few decades. General of Infantry Michael Skobelev in the 1880s conducted a truly brilliant operation of finally subduing the rebellious Turkmens, taking their stronghold Geok-Tepe, pacifying the region and finally closing a potential “gap” through which the Brits could try to expand into the Central Asia . Besides requiring extremely complicated logistics (all supplies had to be carried through hundreds kilometers of a desert), operation involved bold military actions and considerable amount of the diplomatic efforts required for convincing the fleeing population to return to their oasises and get disarmed. Experience in a careful planning and preparation of an operation was considered to be extremely important for the current campaign because in any imaginable scenario the main issue was going to be a properly organized logistics and careful reconnaissance. His care of the soldiers was on a scale quite unusual in the Russian army and, not following the popular theories, he was dead set against “winning by spirit” (and the resulting big losses of his own troops).
One of his first orders in new capacity was:
“ I draw the attention of the commanders of the units to their duty to make sure that the lower ranks are adequately fed under any conditions. Once and for all, I demand that not a single day pass in which they would not receive hot food, if the lower ranks are not fed, it comes from the confusion and negligence of the commander. Any of these reasons can lead to dismissal."
Plan. Skobelev’s considerations regarding the planned campaign were following:
- Mongolia as the main front does not make too much sense because success there, even in the Inner Mongolia, would not force Qing government to sue for peace. So the mopping operations in Outer Mongolia and conquest of the Inner Mongolia (at least its Mongolian part) has to be left to the Mongolian troops strengthened by the Dzungarian and Baikal Cossacks and horse artillery.
- The main campaign should happen in Manchuria because it is politically important for the Qing regime. As a part of this campaign, special force (Amur and Ussuri Cossacks and some regular troops) must be allocated for systematic extermination of as many honghuzi as possible: their complete eradication is not realistic but strict measures in the Northern Manchuria will make easier future protection of the border. Local Manchurian administration must be assured that the Russian presence is strictly temporarily until the peace treaty is signed. Property of the peaceful Chinese should be, within reasonable limits, to be protected.
- Extent of the advance will depend upon the Japanese advance and possibility to arrange for the joined operations.
- 1st Siberian Corps (under command of Linevich) will advance to Jilin in 2 columns:
- 1st Siberian infantry division and 1st Amur Cossack regiment will advance from Vladivostok
- 2nd Siberian infantry division with 2 remaining regiments of the Ussuri Cavalry brigade will advance from Khabarovsk
- 2nd Siberian Corps and part of the 5th Army Corps will advance from Blagoveschensk toward Qiqihar while the 3rd Brigade of the 7th infantry division of the 5th Army Corps strengthened by 1 mounted regiment and 1 infantry battalion of the Amur Cossacks will advance from the North across the Argun River
The only small thing left was declaration of a war. The ultimatum was issued with a demand to acknowledge the Mongolian independence, accept abolishment of the 64 villages settlement and pay a hefty compensation for the damages done by the attacks on Russian territory and subjects. Predictably, Qing refused and the war was declared.
The official note had been delivered to all “powers” interested informing them about unprovoked Chinese attack on the Russian Empire and assuring that Russia does not look for any territorial expansion and that its troops will be withdrawn from Manchuria after the peace treaty is signed and security of the Russian border assured.
Japan got an extra message informing that the Russian operations in Manchuria and Mongolia are not going to interfere with the military activities of Japan and its goals in the ongoing war. Proposal was made to send the liaison officers for better communications and, if Japan desires, to make war related issues more formal.
__________
[1] In OTL M. Skobelev died in 1882 at the age of 38 so in 1894 he would be 51. Circumstances of his death gave birth to the assassination theories: he was vocally anti-German and AIII did not like him making political speeches. ITTL in an absence of the Ottoman War of 1877-78 he is not as popular as in OTL and has a better chance for survival (😉). Bernard Montgomery assessed Skobelev as the world's "ablest single commander" between 1870 and 1914.
[2] Unless this deep jewel of a strategic wisdom boils down to already quoted “the normal heroes are always choosing an indirect road”, it is probably irrelevant but, admittedly, it sounds much more scientific.
[3] In OTL Witte’s project cost huge sums (the full expenditures never were published) to end up as a big flop: «Дальний» (Dailan) never became a significant outlet of the Russian trade (one of the reasons was a small volume of the Russian Far East trade, which could not be changed by the minister’s fantasies). And Port Arthur, was a death trap from the get-go: expenses and materials needed for its adequate defense were too great for the RE’s available resources, besides its harbor was inadequate for the battleships of the early 1900s without the huge excavation works, etc.
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