Although the Austrians being stubborn would ironically damage Italy's standing. Too much success, too quickly may hurt its standing in British eyes. Ferdinand may have to think of something else, not having that much of a margin.
Primavera d'Italia: War, Love and Revolution
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At the very least Lombardy and Venetia are gone, possibly also Dalmatia. If some sort of "revisionism" really needs to happened, I expect it to be around Istria, Trieste, Fiume Gorizia and Trentino (basically a last desperate attempt to ensure some sort of easily defensible border for the Austrians plus continued sea access).
“Nations do not have permanent friends or enemies, only interests": this sentence has been attributed to John Temple (twice British PM in the 1850s) or to Lord Palmerston.
Who first uttered these words in public matters little: the point is that the British government constantly adhered to this principle.
A complete collapse of the Austrian empire is probably not in the interests of UK, since it might be likely to start 10 or twenty years of free-for-all in Central Europe and increase the likelihood of a Russian intervention, sooner or later. Trimming up their ambitions, even trimming up them as sharply as it's happening in Italy, might be more acceptable for a number of reasons (chief among them, the perception that Austrian intransigence and their incapacity of understanding that the system put in place at the Congress of Vienna had been crumbling for almost two decades), provided that their commercial interests were not threatened. The British public opinion will also play a role: how unpopular would be a direct intervention in the continental mess (the more so since there would not be an effective support from the other Powers, for the reasons I mentioned in a post yesterday?).
Trieste and Fiume will become Free Cities (rather than being annexed by the Italian Confederation) and railways will be built (they are already under construction) to link both to Vienna and Budapest, with a guarantee of free passage of goods (there might be an argument about the free passage for military supplies, but it is not a major point). This should assuage most of the British (and French) worries.
The Alps should in any case guarantee a safe border between Austria and Italy (not as a safe border as the 1866 one, but that's the result of decisively loosing a war).
There is a reasonable probability to negotiate down the War Reparations which will be asked by the IC (provided that a ceasefire is agreed and peace negotiations start within 4 or 5 weeks).
There are - as of now - in excess of 40,000 Austrian war prisoners in Italian hands: it is the equivalent of 20 battalions, and their return will also be nothing to sneeze about.
Finally, if the Austrians prove to be too obdurate, there is always the option to begin talking to Hungarians: somehow, I believe that the possibility of a fully independent Hungary, with the Magyars lording over their internal ethnic minorities would find interested ears in Budapest.
Mind, Ferdinando has no ambition to become a reborn Napoleon, and his goal is to end up this war as soon as feasible. It doesn't mean that the principle of "uti possidetis" should be disregarded or the the peace treaty should not be written as the IC wants.
Who first uttered these words in public matters little: the point is that the British government constantly adhered to this principle.
A complete collapse of the Austrian empire is probably not in the interests of UK, since it might be likely to start 10 or twenty years of free-for-all in Central Europe and increase the likelihood of a Russian intervention, sooner or later. Trimming up their ambitions, even trimming up them as sharply as it's happening in Italy, might be more acceptable for a number of reasons (chief among them, the perception that Austrian intransigence and their incapacity of understanding that the system put in place at the Congress of Vienna had been crumbling for almost two decades), provided that their commercial interests were not threatened. The British public opinion will also play a role: how unpopular would be a direct intervention in the continental mess (the more so since there would not be an effective support from the other Powers, for the reasons I mentioned in a post yesterday?).
Trieste and Fiume will become Free Cities (rather than being annexed by the Italian Confederation) and railways will be built (they are already under construction) to link both to Vienna and Budapest, with a guarantee of free passage of goods (there might be an argument about the free passage for military supplies, but it is not a major point). This should assuage most of the British (and French) worries.
The Alps should in any case guarantee a safe border between Austria and Italy (not as a safe border as the 1866 one, but that's the result of decisively loosing a war).
There is a reasonable probability to negotiate down the War Reparations which will be asked by the IC (provided that a ceasefire is agreed and peace negotiations start within 4 or 5 weeks).
There are - as of now - in excess of 40,000 Austrian war prisoners in Italian hands: it is the equivalent of 20 battalions, and their return will also be nothing to sneeze about.
Finally, if the Austrians prove to be too obdurate, there is always the option to begin talking to Hungarians: somehow, I believe that the possibility of a fully independent Hungary, with the Magyars lording over their internal ethnic minorities would find interested ears in Budapest.
Mind, Ferdinando has no ambition to become a reborn Napoleon, and his goal is to end up this war as soon as feasible. It doesn't mean that the principle of "uti possidetis" should be disregarded or the the peace treaty should not be written as the IC wants.
I was thinking more about the current war, than the Post-War. Italians in Innsbruck or Lubiana (Clearly with no intention of holding them, but to force peace they might have to pursue enemy forces...) may give the wrong idea to the Great Powers (
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I reckon that even the Austrian high command would begin to realize that the war is lost by now: their last ditch attempt to stop the Italians has failed miserably,and seeing a general of the calibre of Nugent accepting a truce might be enough to end the war. But of course,the Austrian government is really stubborn,even if they believe that only a miracle could save them they could still try a last sortie on the Italian front...I believe an eventual peace would please the Italians enough,but would also try to keep the Austrians relevant,even with such a great loss of prestige.
Hi everyone! First and foremost, I would like to thank you all for your interest and contribution to our TL, and I would like to thank @LordKalvan for his friendship and his inspiring, stunning, and incredibly patient role as co-creator of this world of ours. I apologize for being so absent from the TL and the board, but the RL reasons keeping me out of here just keep growing. I hope to be back soon, but in earnest, I cannot guarantee. One thing is for sure, though: reading your insights, comments, feedback on this is always a heartwarming experience, so I want to thank you all, truly.
I don't believe that is necessary, without an army the Italians can just sit back, relax and show the rest of Europe how unreasonable Austria is. That is better than just marching on their capital like a new Napoleon, which would just sent the wrong message to the other great powers. If the Italians want to be treated as equal they need to learn how to move within the boundaries of diplomacy.
No bread or circuses makes the people angry, you are lucky this isn't ancient Rome. More seriously take your time, real life's concerns always come first.
I don't think an advance against either Lubiana or Innsbruck would be a smart idea, nor is necessary, as @Flavius Iulius Nepos said.
Such a move might be considered if it were useful in the pursuit of a diplomatic solution, but the complete collapse of the Austrian empire is not a reasonable solution for the Italian Confederation, at least at this point in time.
OTOH, I believe it would be a good idea to start opening informal and very under-the-table communication lines with Bavaria and with Hungary. They may (or may not) pay a dividend in the immediate, but in any case new friends might always become useful in the future.
Some spade work should be done in France too (although at this point in time the political situation in France is very much unsettled, the elections have been held: a more conventional diplomatic approach would be used in this connection, although I would not be averse to use also more informal channels: Terenzio Mamiani, Giuseppe Ferrari, count Cavour have all good connections in Paris, and there is another guy who is going to appear soon who is possibly even better connected
)Speaking of France,I think their relations with Italy may be warmer than OTL,they certainly want to secure a powerful ally in the region. I think they might even go as far as conceding Tunisia to the Italians.
I don't think France will see Italy in a very friendly way, right now they have their issues, but when the water settle down they magically got a medium size power who was able to stomp the former GP of central Europe, who has a modern, efficient and fairly big army who is full of veterans and has the control of alpine pass of Savoy and the Ligurian Alps, literally the 2 highways to get into Provence. They have a naval ambition in the Mediterranean and the moment they go imperialist Tunisia is a common target fot both than If Germany goes to the confederation route they it will be ideologically close to Italy, and a common trade partner and no overlapping interest. France once stable will go highwire immediately, and will probably go conservative o reactionary while getting close to Russia to counterbalance the progressive central Europe block. And there is also the issue for Corsica, maybe Italy is not interested but france can still go paranoid about Italy wanting to get whole national claim, and if naple is not "integrated" into the confederacy fast, when the revolution in France get squashed they are going to start meddling heavily to counterbalance Verona .
Thanks Guaro,you really have a good point here,I didn't see it that way. So you say relations here will be worse in the short term because of the ideological differences and overlapping claims? You are right,but wouldn't France prefer a realpolitik policy here? They surely don't want another rising power that borders them as an outright enemy,but maybe they may just ally with Russia faster and feel more confident that way. Then I guess the natural ally of Italy may be Germany,but I don't know if they would side with a liberal power...
I also missed your German Confederation part,that is whole different issue,since it will most likely end in a different way than originally.
Germany and Central Europe will be a mess for a while. Italy has the chance to secure its position, while keeping warm(ish) relations with France and the UK, maybe helping financing the Suez Canal? It's a bit soon for colonial claims (and Tunisia isn't really worth antagonizing the French over).
Germany (or better "Germanies" at this stage) and the Habsburg empire will be in an unsettled state for at least 18-24 months. As you say, it is a good opportunity for the Italian Confederation to build up a diplomatic presence and a soft penetration in Bavaria and Baden; setting up communication channels with Hungary would also be useful, but in this case there would be no overt diplomacy of course.
France is equally unsettled: I believe that the results of the elections of April would not be substantially different from OTL (let's say 20-25% legitimists of different flavors, 55-60% moderates and 15-20% democrats). IOTL, the months of May and June were the critical ones: French politics turned to the right, and the blame can be shared almost equally between the democrats, who were disappointed by the electoral results and quickly turned to extra-parliamentary opposition, and the moderates, who were convinced that the only danger to the republic would be come from the left. I would argue that the news coming from Italy, where the moderates and the democrats have apparently found a modus vivendi, might influence the politics in the Assembly too, the more so if the combo of diplomatic rapprochement and personal efforts I have outlined in my last post is put in place. I am not saying that French politics will be totally changed by what is happening in Italy, but there will be some influence for sure (and hopefully it will be a positive one: avoiding or at least minimizing the Bloody Days of June would be a great outcome).
The future Italy (the roadmap of which has been roughly sketched in the Convention at Isola della Scala) will take some time to coalesce completely. It is however quite obvious that such an Italy would be firmly positioned in the field of the Western Democracies: UK and France, obviously, but also the USA (making allowance for the geographical separation). Austria will never be a friend, at least in the medium term; the same is likely for Prussia, in particular if the spadework in Southern Germany produces results,; Russia does not necessary need to be hostile (leaving aside the aversion of Nicholas I for democratic revolutions), but at the same time there is no great benefit which might be gained from befriending them, and certainly a Russian expansion in the Balkans and Anatolia would not be aligned to Italian interests.
I believe you underestimate Italian presence in Tunisia (which is already there at least since the end of the Napoleonic wars, and even IOTL grew quickly in the 1850s and 1860s) and at the same time overestimate French interest in Tunisia (which IOTL grew in the 1860s). I would suggest looking at this: https://www.istitutoeuroarabo.it/DM...-in-tunisia-tra-l800-e-la-prima-meta-del-900/ (in Italian, sorry).
Of course, Italian position in Tunisia must be secured in the 1850s, but I do not see any great difficulty here.
Finally, the canal of Suez: it is obviously in Italian interest to be involved from the beginning, and setting it up as a joint venture including also UK and France might result into an early completion of the canal (IOTL the British were against the canal, which was seen as benefitting mostly France, and proposed a railway linking Port Said to the Mediterranean coast as an alternative).
Thanks a lot, guys! Your support means much to me. It's a combo of a lot of work+personal problems needing to be solved, preferably fast. In the past, AH has been a balm for this (I believe I mentioned some time ago that the earlier exploits of this TL were done during a very stressful time of 2020), but this time is just... different. But I will get back!
I'm now quietly waiting to see the action in the Capital , with our Prince trying to decide what to do. Diplomacy, quarrelling, time to shine
For future internal configurations I'd love to see Cisspanians joining Lombardy, for me there's something about "Reggio della Lombardia" keeping her name)
For future internal configurations I'd love to see Cisspanians joining Lombardy, for me there's something about "Reggio della Lombardia" keeping her name)
Is this italian union going to be similar to Germany,with each region having its own king but ultimately being inferior to the king of both Piedmont and Italy or it's going to be a much more federal kingdom?
Well spotted. The focus will be back in Verona (although I expect some news from Vienna and Naples).I'm now quietly waiting to see the action in the Capital , with our Prince trying to decide what to do. Diplomacy, quarrelling, time to shine
For future internal configurations I'd love to see Cisspanians joining Lombardy, for me there's something about "Reggio della Lombardia" keeping her name)
As usual, there are no guarantees that this will not change. From time to time, the narrative takes a life of its own.
The form of government for Cispadania will be decided by the people of Cispadania itself.
Cispadania is potentially rich and is going to be the link between Lombardy and Tuscany (or better between Milan and Leghorn), and I feel that Lombardy is large enough as it is.
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