A New World Wreathed in Freedom - An Argentine Revolution TL

[Xenophonte]

If I'm completely honest, I think I could easily justify being more generous with the nominal GDP if I consider the fact that the United Provinces are sitting on top of gargantuan fossil fuel reserves, not just the conventional oil of Patagonia, but its shale and Bolivia's natural gas. The country would probably be outperforming Canada/Australia in the 2010s.

Indeed, but I was referencing and only taking into account specifically to the situation from the around the 1900 and the economic factors that were ongoing since the XIX century last decades. Thus my reference only to the aforementioned historic economic booms and to the those that 'd helps to develop and to the growth of the inter and intraregional trade/economy.
Also, I've a doubt about how much of the United Provinces's Oil reserves/fields 'd has to wait for technology/technic development for to be found and/or to be possible to be worthy to be exploited commercially.

 

[minifidel]

Indeed, but I was referencing and only taking into account specifically to the situation from the around the 1900 and the economic factors that were ongoing since the XIX century last decades. Thus my reference only to the aforementioned historic economic booms and to the those that 'd helps to develop and to the growth of the inter and intraregional trade/economy.
Also, I've a doubt about how much of the United Provinces's Oil reserves/fields 'd has to wait for technology/technic development for to be found and/or to be possible to be worthy to be exploited commercially.

Yeah, I mentioned the former (nitrates/guano) in an earlier update, but I did fail to mention the ways mechanization and refrigeration would lead to a boom in the ranching industry. I suspect the meatpacking industry is going to be one of the biggest employers in Montevideo and Buenos Aires.

As for the UP's oil reserves: Patagonia has commercially viable conventional reserves, with the biggest change being the likely absence of an YPF-like state oil company in the early days of the oil industry (but a state oil company may be a likely priority of any likely PRI government in the 1920s or 30s). Fracking would dramatically expand the UP's proven reserves, but that's not until the 21st century.

 

[EvilJam]

Yeah the GDP and GDP per capita are very low. A more stable country with the resources that it has should be a rival to OTL Japan.

What went wrong?

 

[Xenophonte]

I suspect the meatpacking industry is going to be one of the biggest employers in Montevideo and Buenos Aires.

I'm thinking about that, that perhaps one bigger and more visible difference to OTL 'd be that in this industrial sector the Market share owned by the British 'd very minor while mostly about it 'd be owned by native/local capitals... And that 'd have, IMO; important consequences, both for the workers and especially for the UP's Treasury...

 

[minifidel]

Yeah the GDP and GDP per capita are very low. A more stable country with the resources that it has should be a rival to OTL Japan.

What went wrong?

Nominalism, mostly. But I'll be honest: I don't have a problem with increasing the GDP and GDP/capita (I've already revised the population down after feedback), and it certainly seems like there's something of a consensus that I've been overly conservative with my GDP figures.

I'm thinking about that, that perhaps one bigger and more visible difference to OTL 'd be that in this industrial sector the Market share owned by the British 'd very minor while mostly about it 'd be owned by native/local capitals... And that 'd have, IMO; important consequences, both for the workers and especially for the UP's Treasury...

I think you're right, and that the 1880-1920s would be the high water mark for foreign ownership of major portions of the Platine economy. That still leaves some big industries - I'm thinking rail and oil in particular - with larger shares of foreign ownership, but later industries like automotive, aerospace, radio (and the UP are going to be early adopters of radio, like Argentina and Uruguay IOTL), television, etc. would still be mostly local capital.

 

[deathstrokenorris]

Yeah the GDP and GDP per capita are very low. A more stable country with the resources that it has should be a rival to OTL Japan.

What went wrong?

Yes, Japan is the world's third economy OTL . A successful UP can be a slightly better Canada and maybe one day grow to be like Japan but there is no way they would be so big. It's just wanking otherwise.

 

[Sceonn]

Yes, Japan is the world's third economy OTL . A successful UP can be a slightly better Canada and maybe one day grow to be like Japan but there is no way they would be so big. It's just wanking otherwise.

Slightly better than Canada would be an embarrassment to the UP everything considered. The entire region will be doing much better because the UP isn't in a vacuum, synergy factor's going to be big.

 

[deathstrokenorris]

Slightly better than Canada would be an embarrassment to the UP everything considered. The entire region will be doing much better because the UP isn't in a vacuum, synergy factor's going to be big.

And? The talk is about GDP per capita, in total numbers it would surely be better than Canada but that still doesn't translate to "I am the third planetary economy" as you guys are saying.

"South America does better" does not equal to "wank timeline."

 

[minifidel]

Slightly better than Canada would be an embarrassment to the UP everything considered. The entire region will be doing much better because the UP isn't in a vacuum, synergy factor's going to be big.

Just for reference, a nominal GDP/Capita like Canada's would give the United Provinces a GDP of $6 trillion, which does indeed some like a bit much - that's about 20% larger than Japan's economy. I'm thinking of a GDP more in the 3, 3.5 trillion range, with 4 trillion being the upper bound of my estimate.

 

[Sceonn]

And? The talk is about GDP per capita, in total numbers it would surely be better than Canada but that still doesn't translate to "I am the third planetary economy" as you guys are saying.

The UP is more industrialized than Japan, will have a larger population, is sitting on a far larger pile of resource, has been stable and capitalist for far longer, is surrounded by peers for continental trade and linked to the British Empire's economy (likely US). A France or Italy given the same population as Japan's will either equal or exceed the latter's economy.

TTL no nation is likely to replicate OTL Japan's Post-War market domination, certainly not Japan itself. The third and Fourth TTL economies should be the Brazil and the UP by the 21st century.

Just for reference, a nominal GDP/Capita like Canada's would give the United Provinces a GDP of $6 trillion, which does indeed some like a bit much - that's about 20% larger than Japan's economy. I'm thinking of a GDP more in the 3, 3.5 trillion range, with 4 trillion being the upper bound of my estimate.

I think that's a good estimate.

 

[Crust3038]

I find the UP being made weaker for the sake of weakness and "game balance" implausible.

Which would have massive repercussions for the sociological and political history of the US...what with the WASP leadership strata of the American social hierarchy having to face the anti-thesis of their ideology, that a Non-WASP nation could become affluent, decades ahead of schedule than OTL.

AKA: Prepare for massive populist tides in the TTL US.

 

[EvilJam]

Yes, Japan is the world's third economy OTL . A successful UP can be a slightly better Canada and maybe one day grow to be like Japan but there is no way they would be so big. It's just wanking otherwise.

Japan is famous for having very low natural resources, it's why they invaded China, yet it is still the 3rd... Consider these points in favour:

1. Very good agricultural sector
2. Abundant natural resources
3. Larger population than Japan (150million vs 120million)
4. A history of stable democracy with a satisfied populace, removing the likelihood of the dictatorships that crippled South America OTL
5. Falklands Oil
6. Strong trading history and ties with major nations
7. No conceivable military threat nearby (Brazil desires no UP territory)

Why couldn't it rival OTL Japan?

 

[deathstrokenorris]

The UP is more industrialized than Japan, will have a larger population, is sitting on a far larger pile of resource, has been stable and capitalist for far longer, is surrounded by peers for continental trade and linked to the British Empire's economy (likely US). A France or Italy given the same population as Japan's will either equal or exceed the latter's economy.

No, no and no?

We have been repeatedly told that the UP was only midly industrialized during the 20th century as it entered the race quite late, the resources only push you so far (or else why would Japan be what it is OTL?), the British empire's economy is not something sure as OTL it did implode and ruined Argentina.

Being well off and a powerful country is not the same as being one of the three biggest world economies or else why wouldn't Brazil do the same?

TTL no nation is likely to replicate OTL Japan's Post-War market domination, certainly not Japan itself. The third and Fourth TTL economies should be the Brazil and the UP by the 21st century.

Why? What are you using as the basis of this conjecture? Are you perchance the author?

Japan is famous for having very low natural resources, it's why they invaded China, yet it is still the 3rd... Consider these points in favour:

1. Very good agricultural sector
2. Abundant natural resources
3. Larger population than Japan (150million vs 120million)
4. A history of stable democracy with a satisfied populace, removing the likelihood of the dictatorships that crippled South America OTL
5. Falklands Oil
6. Strong trading history and ties with major nations
7. No conceivable military threat nearby (Brazil desires no UP territory)

Why couldn't it rival OTL Japan?

Ok, let's see then:
1 didn't help OTL.
2 Didn't help OTL
3 It only helps that much (see Brazil, India, etc)
4 That we know. The TL only covers up to the Early 20th century.
5 It's mostly useless and requires of modern technology to exploit so it only becomes relevant during the 21st century.
6 And? Argentina also had this. We need to know the state of the rest of the planet before saying how useful this may be.
7 Says who? Also, there are plenty of military threats, though you could say the surety of war one could find in Europe was missing.

Because Japan is an outlier. You guys are trying to fit a square peg on a round hole. Will the UP have a big economy, maybe comparable or greater than Germany's and/or other european powers? Probably. Will it be a gigantic monstruosity comparable to the US or China? Hahahah, no.



I get everyone loves Protagonist power™ but the way everyone wants to wank every ATL "protagonist" country every fucking time is quite grating.

 

[EvilJam]

No, no and no?

We have been repeatedly told that the UP was only midly industrialized during the 20th century as it entered the race quite late, the resources only push you so far (or else why would Japan be what it is OTL?), the British empire's economy is not something sure as OTL it did implode and ruined Argentina.

Being well off and a powerful country is not the same as being one of the three biggest world economies or else why wouldn't Brazil do the same?


Why? What are you using as the basis of this conjecture? Are you perchance the author?


Ok, let's see then:
1 didn't help OTL.
2 Didn't help OTL
3 It only helps that much (see Brazil, India, etc)
4 That we know. The TL only covers up to the Early 20th century.
5 It's mostly useless and requires of modern technology to exploit so it only becomes relevant during the 21st century.
6 And? Argentina also had this. We need to know the state of the rest of the planet before saying how useful this may be.
7 Says who? Also, there are plenty of military threats, though you could say the surety of war one could find in Europe was missing.

Because Japan is an outlier. You guys are trying to fit a square peg on a round hole. Will the UP have a big economy, maybe comparable or greater than Germany's and/or other european powers? Probably. Will it be a gigantic monstruosity comparable to the US or China? Hahahah, no.



I get everyone loves Protagonist power™ but the way everyone wants to wank every ATL "protagonist" country every fucking time is quite grating.

Japan isn't comparable to the US or China anymore...
German GDP: 3.95T
Japanese GDP: 4.97T
Roughly the same on per capita.

Why would a TL about a better Argentina fall into the dictatorship stagnation and mid-income trap like OTL?

 

[minifidel]

The UP is more industrialized than Japan, will have a larger population, is sitting on a far larger pile of resource, has been stable and capitalist for far longer, is surrounded by peers for continental trade and linked to the British Empire's economy (likely US). A France or Italy given the same population as Japan's will either equal or exceed the latter's economy.

TTL no nation is likely to replicate OTL Japan's Post-War market domination, certainly not Japan itself. The third and Fourth TTL economies should be the Brazil and the UP by the 21st century.

The 21st century is going to be very good for South America ITTL: if a commodities boom occurs, it'll benefit SA disproportionately, considering the gargantuan fossil fuel reserves that all of the major countries in the region have (Colombia has access to Venezuela's reserves, among the largest in the world; Brazil still has the offshore potential from OTL; and the UP have both the titanic shale reserves in Patagonia and the easily accessible natural gas of Collao/Bolivia).

I find the UP being made weaker for the sake of weakness and "game balance" implausible.

Which would have massive repercussions for the sociological and political history of the US...what with the WASP leadership strata of the American social hierarchy having to face the anti-thesis of their ideology, that a Non-WASP nation could become affluent, decades ahead of schedule than OTL.

AKA: Prepare for massive populist tides in the TTL US.

I feel that the existence and success of the United Provinces (and Colombia, which has closer ties from earlier on) is going to lead to two divergent "liberal" traditions in the US: a nativist branch which will certainly find ways to discredit the success of Latin American countries (probably focusing on the British influence on the region), and a more internationally-connected branch (like the more radical abolitionists that were part of the global movement to abolish slavery, or the Republicans that were in contact with European radicals at the time and would likely be in touch with Platine and Colombian liberals as well). It may actually complicate matters in the US after a defeat to Mexico/Texas/California, and there may never be a fusion or alliance between the Know-Nothing and the proto-Republican Whigs.

Japan is famous for having very low natural resources, it's why they invaded China, yet it is still the 3rd... Consider these points in favour:

The fact that Japan was able to consolidate itself as a global superpower so quickly after its efforts to catch up to the European powers - to the point they were even able to conquer Korea and parts of China by the turn of the century - sets them apart and warrants some caution when comparing it with other countries based on natural resources or raw population.

 

[Rockydroid]

I don't think it is necessary for UP to obtain the level and status of top 5 anything in order to still be a successful, strong, and influential nation. For example, militarily, it doesn't need to be able to defeat the UK or France or Japan, but just enough that a war with those nations will result in a UP defeat but at a high cost for the victors making it so that they'd think twice before pushing for hostilities. A deterrence force. Economically, it doesn't need to dominate any market but have enough of a share that it holds some influence and is more than an afterthought to the economic giants of the era. I mean, modern day Haiti's economy tanking isn't a big concern outside of humanitarian issues nor are they a highly sought out trading partner for trade deals, but Brazil or Mexico would certainly raise a lot of alarms and are worth the effort for top level trade negotiations. And so on. In other words, a secondary power that matters that the main world powers wouldn't mind having on their side.

 

[deathstrokenorris]

Japan isn't comparable to the US or China anymore...
German GDP: 3.95T
Japanese GDP: 4.97T
Roughly the same on per capita

Did I say it was? It's still the third world economy and has a lead of one fucking trillion on the next contender (one who has the benefits of the Eurozone btw). So I don't see your point here. Also what does per capita have to do with anything if the complaints were about nominal GDP?

Why would a TL about a better Argentina fall into the dictatorship stagnation and mid-income trap like OTL?

"Not a top three motherfucking world power"=/= economic stagnation. Is there some rule about any TL country in this site being a binary choice between "shithole" and "Wankfest"? The UP being (relatively) well off and doing well does not require it to be a contender for third place in the world's pecking order (which would be stupid anyway as even with this TL's changes the UP is still mostly a second tier economy like most former British colonies by dint of it's availability of resources and history).

feel that the existence and success of the United Provinces (and Colombia, which has closer ties from earlier on) is going to lead to two divergent "liberal" traditions in the US

Ehhhh, I mean. While the US never saw Argentina, Uruguay, Chile, etc as equals I don't think they were seeing as they are today. During the late 19th, early 20th century the Southern cone countries were respected as relatively successful. So it's not like the overall Us narrative will change much, it just will not solidify as it did OTL after SA went to hell.

 

[EvilJam]

Did I say it was? It's still the third world economy and has a lead of one fucking trillion on the next contender (one who has the benefits of the Eurozone btw). So I don't see your point here. Also what does per capita have to do with anything if the complaints were about nominal GDP?



"Not a top three motherfucking world power"=/= economic stagnation. Is there some rule about any TL country in this site being a binary choice between "shithole" and "Wankfest"? The UP being (relatively) well off and doing well does not require it to be a contender for third place in the world's pecking order (which would be stupid anyway as even with this TL's changes the UP is still mostly a second tier economy like most former British colonies by dint of it's availability of resources and history).



Ehhhh, I mean. While the US never saw Argentina, Uruguay, Chile, etc as equals I don't think they were seeing as they are today. During the late 19th, early 20th century the Southern cone countries were respected as relatively successful. So it's not like the overall Us narrative will change much, it just will not solidify as it did OTL after SA went to hell

UP has 150million people. That is larger than Japan.
UP has much greater resources.
UP won't go through the decades of stagnation that is the main reason that OTL South America is weaker than Europe on a per capita basis.

Why can't it have a bigger GDP than OTL Japan?

 

[deathstrokenorris]

UP has 150million people. That is larger than Japan.
UP has much greater resources.
UP won't go through the decades of stagnation that is the main reason that OTL South America is weaker than Europe on a per capita basis.

Why can't it have a bigger GDP than OTL Japan?

I have already explained it but it seems like I was talking to a wall. So from now on I'll refrain from wasting my time and talk about this subject with the author only.

End of the line, the UP is a second tier power with a little nice economy, not what you guys are selling it at. Wanks are boring.

 

[Red_Galiray]

I have already explained it but it seems like I was talking to a wall. So from now on I'll refrain from wasting my time and talk about this subject with the author only.

End of the line, the UP is a second tier power with a little nice economy, not what you guys are selling it at. Wanks are boring.

Your arguments thus far have been nothing but unconvicing "they couldn't OTL, so they can't ITTL" statements, and a dismissal of every change that has happened in the TL in favor of "somehow, despite a completely different history, Argentina will still end a politically instable and poor country". I'm heartily tired of such takes. They are harmful and don't allow for discussion if every argument is dismissed with a simple "didn't happen OTL so it doesn't matter". What are you doing in an alternate history forum if you believe that, in spite of butterflies, the world id gonna end up the same? Historical determinism is boring.