I was just rereading and found this. Was the Mayerling incident butterflied and Rudolf survived or was it an oversight? OTL Franz Ferdinand was Franz Joseph’s heir.
A New World Wreathed in Freedom - An Argentine Revolution TL
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It still probably leads to ports first and foremost, followed by big cities and the like. I mean, the point of a railroad is for travel and movement of resources so a bunch of interconnected nodes in-between the big centers of industry and produce export centers makes sense. The biggest difference I think is that whereas everything lead to BsAs before it must now be better divided in-between the big cities.
Quoting these together as they're related: all three are correct, the expanded country and the access to more ports means that OTL's BsAs centered system has three coastal terminus (Buenos Aires, Montevideo and Antofgasta). The inland hubs would be in Chuquisaca for Pacific-bound cargo and passengers, Córdoba for Buenos Aires-bound cargo and passengers and the Santa Fe-Parana-Salto axis for Montevideo-bound traffic (with Salto being the entry point into Uruguay). Asunción heads its own hub, and is probably an even larger fluvial port ITTL.
This is actually an oversight on my part, I wasn't aware of the Mayerling incident when writing it. But it seems like a relatively easy thing to butterfly given a PoD a century in the past, whether by them deciding not to go through with the murder-suicide or just by virtue of being different enough people that Rudolf or his mistress aren't interested in the relationship ITTL.
Well, that has some butterflies to the future, and to be honest it could well have had some prior to WW1, such as Franz Joseph being more restrained when dealing with Franz Ferdinand’s assassination, given that he had not lost his son previously and that he was not his heir.
For the future, maybe this could increase the likelihood of a Habsburg restoration in either Austria or Hungary. Or even for him to keep one of those post WW1, even if its with the reduced borders.
The post-war world is still essentially in flux, the date ITTL is stuck in 1918-1920 pending the update (and even the update won't get it past much further than 1921), so there are plenty of possibilities. A surviving Habsburg monarchy in Austria would be a possibility for sure, especially if I follow through with my pet headcanon of Austria-Hungary falling to a socialist revolution instead of Russia, as a more realistic conclusion to that revolution would be the collapse of said socialist regime and an increased likelihood of a monarchist restoration.
A quirky possibility I'm toying with is an Austria-Hungary that is dissolved in all but name, with a figurehead Habsburg monarch as Head of State of Austria, Hungary, Bohemia, Moravia and Croatia, but with each of those constituent kingdoms/countries having their own government that are permanently at loggerheads.
Could work I guess, though I’m not an expert. Like how far the socialist regime would go? And anyways, A-H was really diverse and split in a lot of countries, so I think that a Revolution succeeding in some part of it is probably more feasible than one encompassing the borders of the empire precisely.
I don’t see it happening tbh. The Entente has no reason to allow such a personal union that could develop into a new Empire to exist. Im not even sure that half the territories mentioned would have liked the idea of a continued monarchy. I can see it staying in Austria and at most Hungary, but not that. I would even say that’s likely that if it stays in both of then, Karl von Habsburg (Franz Ferdinand’s son, and next in line after Rudolf here) would be likely to take the Hungarian crown to avoid a new personal union.
Well, the regime would likely last a couple of years at most, as other posters pointed out to me that A-H would be an all around terrible place for a revolution since it lacks the physical distance from the centers of power that (just barely) allowed the Bolshevik revolution to survive foreign intervention and support for the Whites. It might survive in one of the constituent countries (Bohemia-Moravia, Transylvania, or Hungary as an alternative to the re-imposition of the Habsburgs for instance), but I've been pretty thoroughly convinced that a revolution in AH would never be allowed to encompass the whole Empire.
Sounds about right, thanks for the comments!
Yes, there would definitely be foreign intervention in an AH Revolution. In fact, I would say that the heaviest one would likely be the German paramilitaries that resulted from the disbandment of most of the Heer. That might in turn have very interesting for Germany, give that having its extremist groups out of the country would butterfly away some of the early putschs such as the Kapp Putsch or the Beer Hall putsch. I could certainly see a certain Austrian painter leaving Weimar to fight the communists in his homeland.
Depending on the timing, it’s possible that the stab in the back myth would be more directed towards socialists and communists than Jews.
What is the UP getting out of the treaties anyways? Nothing major probably, but I could see them getting some unimportant colonies somewhere, even if they are kind of useless. Colonies were a symbol of prestige at the time, so I could see an emerging country like UP pushing for them to cement its position in the international stage. In the early 20th century, the prestige of a country seemed to be measured in colonies and battleships, lmao.
Yeah, I think that the most interesting knock-on effect of a revolution in Austria-Hungary instead of Russia is on Germany, especially as an outlet for a lot of the early violence and as an alternate scapegoat for the defeat (the Habsburgs probably don't get off easy in the "stabbed in the back" mythology either).
Germany has very little that might be of interest to the UP, but if they had a wishlist, it would probably go in decreasing order of importance: chemical or industrial patents (but the Americans want those, in addition to Pacific islands), German concessions in China (but the Japanese want that, and are already occupying them besides), Namibia maybe (because of proximity, but the British want that), and only last on the list their scattered Pacific islands.
At the end of the day, I think that placating possible demands by the UP would be very low on the order of priorities for the Entente. I'd almost go so far as to say that London would probably just think that paying the UP (in actual money, or in naval surplus) is enough.
Idk if Namibia was particularly interesting to the British tbh. East Africa was the one that they really wanted for their Cape to Cairo railway. Maybe, I could see UP getting a stripe of Namibia towards the North (Cause the South would doubtlessly be annexed by the Cape Colony) that wouldn’t be worth much in terms of land but he UP could use as a naval base to project influence in the Southern Atlantic.
As for the US, I doubt they are that interested in all the far flung Pacific Islands. Their Western Coast is probably pretty sparsely populated given the lack of California Gold Rush, and they lack Hawaii, so I doubt they would consider the Pacific their zone of influence like OTL. They might want a few islands, but their aim here is not complete domination of the Pacific, so they don’t need all of them.
Btw, did the Spanish-American war happen here?
With the UP being decently powerful, I doubt the British are keen on alienating them for a few meager colonial concessions that don’t really affect them.
Yeah, I'm picturing a small strip of land on the coast at best, with the south and interior of the colony predominantly under control of the Cape Colony. It'll lose importance very quickly as naval technology improves, but it is a prestige project and probably minor enough that the UP would be considered for it if they want it.
Right, butterflies from my own story lol. This is a fair point, but a similar thing holds true for the UP, since they have a very tenuous foothold on the Pacific as it is. You may see those far flung island colonies split between the French and the Japanese in that case, with maybe a few more going to Australia and New Zealand as well.
No, at least not in my notes; the incentives for the US don't line up quite the same way, and Cuba has other, closer, IMO better sources of support for its domestic independence movement. Cuba is an independent republic in the Colombian sphere, but with considerable American influence and investment in the island.
What I'm more conflicted on is the fate of the Philippines; it's practically guaranteed that Spain would lose control of it sooner than later even without the Spanish-American War. But without a Spanish-American War, there won't be a new colonial administration taking over for the Spanish. So would the Philippines become independent earlier?
Maybe something like Spanish Guinea, right next to Angola.
I mean, Naval bases are still important nowadays, I don’t see how it would decrease in importance tbh. Especially as the UP grows in power and with the Southern Atlantic being their main zone of influence.
I think UP is in the same situation than US in this. They are interested in a foothold on the Pacific, but just that. And there are enough islands in the Pacific that everyone can have one if they wanted to, tbh.
I think the war might have happened but without the Pacific component. A US that’s oriented towards the Atlantic would probably not accepted anything but Cuba dominated by them.
There’s also the thing that decolonization is still some decades away, and no colonial power would see a successful native rebellion in a colony as a good thing, so Spain might get support there, or someone to take them off from their hands for some cash. Like I imagine, for once, that the French would not be keen on having a rebellion so close to Indochina, or the Dutch with the East Indies.
What about Puerto Rico? Is still a Spanish colony or an independent Republic?
I'd guess that Spain, without Cuba, would focus on her Pacific colonies and guess that'd be officially encouraged immigration towards the Philippines. So, it would be possible that with the Spanish undivided attention there, that the Philippines would get some seriously needed political reform/liberalization or it, too, could cause that if Madrid refuse and instead of reforms would try an exclusevely militar solution and 'd apply a bigger repression...
Then, I think that would be possible that Spain would have to face an earlier and more widespread insurgency in the isles. One that in the medium term would force Spain to the negotiation table and/or to concede/offer a full political integration. Or, alternatively, if it would be either rejected or unfeasible, then possibly the Philippines would get granted their independence.
How about the Skeleton coast + Walvis Bay for the UP? The rest of the portion of Namibia can go the Cape Colony.
That’s too big, probably. Keep in mind they don’t need a long strip of coast or populated areas, since the main purpose of the colony would be a naval base. In fact, a small, sparsely population area might be better since it can be left under control of the military without setting up a colonial administration.
27 - The 1919 General Strike
Chapter 27 - The 1919 General Strike
The immediate post-war slump led to a huge increase in labor protests throughout the United Provinces
The immediate post-war slump led to a huge increase in labor protests throughout the United Provinces
To say that “only” a quarter million Platine troops served in the European theater of the Great War is deceptive: for every soldier assigned to the front - and largely independent of whether or not they saw combat on that front - 3 more people were providing support for the deployed soldier in one capacity or another. In all, between the Platine Navy, its embryonic Air Force, its Expeditionary Forces and the vast logistical network interlinking all of them, more than a million men would be mobilized in some way for the Platine war effort.
With the war over, the Liberal government attempted to demobilize rapidly in the midst of a brutal contraction caused by the global economy lurching and reshuffling as peace returned. And much like previous demobilizations of expeditionary forces, the effort would come at a considerable cost for the government’s popularity and the nation’s stability: the attempt to return mobilized workers to their old jobs crashed immediately into the problem that many of their employers were looking to downsize further, leaving tens of thousands of veterans on the street across most industries.
The government made tepid efforts to protect the returning soldiers from these layoffs, but enforcement was notoriously lax, with as little as a day of work being sufficient to satisfy the letter of the law before leaving the veterans once more at the mercy of the bosses and, soon after, in the breadlines. Unemployment would spike by nearly 10 points between the end of the war in November 1918 and the middle of 1919, and this sudden influx of angry, hungry veterans into the ranks of the unemployed and destitute would lead to an uptick of unrest unseen since the upheaval of the 1870s.
The death of Supreme Director Daniel del Río in June of 1919 would exacerbate the crisis as the Assembly, which held a slim government majority between the Liberal and National Union delegations, was suddenly paralyzed by jockeying over del Río’s succession. It would take two weeks for a candidate to emerge, and by the time Horacio Clark-Thomas was sworn in on the 23rd of June, the country’s attention had already shifted to the upcoming conclave between the nation’s largest labor unions slated for the first of July.
The inaugural Congress of the Platine Federation of Labor was the culmination of years of negotiations in the labor movement
The conclave had been months in the making, and promised to be a turning point in Platine politics regardless of its outcome: the Platine labor movement had long been atomized between 4 major factions, and the 1919 Labor Reform Convention as it was dubbed by the organizers was set to be the first time all 4 factions would meet in one venue. Anarchists, Socialists, Syndicalists and Reformists gathered in Chuquisaca, and the country waited with bated breath.
It would get off to a tense start: a group of Anarchist and Socialist unions protested at the election of a Reformist to preside at the Convention, threatening to derail the entire event before it could even formally begin. That the Reformists responded by stepping aside in favor of a Syndicalist president is a testament to the labor movement’s commitment to the Convention: labor unrest had spread far beyond the confines of the militant wings of the movement and taken root within the so-called “moderate” unions as well, a sign to the discontent brewing in the country.
Over the next week, the Convention would go about laying the foundations for a united labor movement, leaving the two most significant motions for a symbolic 9th of July vote: in the morning, the Convention voted to proclaim itself the Platine Federation of Labor; and in the afternoon, the PFL would make its first official announcement, declaring a General Strike beginning at midnight.
Once again, the Liberal Party was trapped between a rock and a hard place: the labor movement’s grievances were clearly legitimate, but the corporate bosses were also closing ranks - and making preparations for an aggressive response - in the face of the impending strike. Telegraph and telephone lines between the inconsolable Collaoan Liberals and their allies in the capital were strained by the day’s events, and as the deadline for the strike approached, the government attempted to act.
Unlike Sarmiento’s vacillation, both Clark-Thomas and Thomson were in agreement that the government needed to intervene swiftly and end the strike before it could go into effect. Utilizing wartime powers granted to the General Secretary by the Assembly, they decreed that the major unionized industries were of “vital strategic interests” and subsequently attempted to force the unions to call off their strike. Simultaneously requiring the owners of the industries to guarantee work quotas and giving their workers priority for payment, the measure would only inflame tensions.
Workers and bosses alike scoffed at the decree, the former declaring it a sop to the capitalists and a hamfisted attempt to break the back of labor, and the latter declaring it a surrender to the workers and an attack on the free market. Attempts at mediation went nowhere, and as the clock struck midnight, the government waited with bated breath to see the full extent of the PFL’s newfound power.
On the morning of the 10th, the general strike began: first to stop were the railroads, with nearly all of the country’s 52,000 km network affected. What little traffic managed to get through sat on the tracks, as the longshoremen and warehouse workers meant to unload the cargo joined the strike. Potential scabs were readily available, but the noticeable influx of veterans into the ranks of the unions made crossing the picket lines a dangerous prospect for all but the most committed strikebreakers, and as the general strike’s first day finished, the PFL could claim a resounding success in both participation and impact.
PFL picket lines and marches would bring most of the country's major cities to a standstill
Much to the government’s dismay, the response from the owners and business leaders was to redouble their efforts to undermine the labor movement, and to double down on their union busting. Anti-socialist veterans flocked to the banners of the strikebreakers, and on the 12th of july, the shooting started: the first shots were fired in Buenos Aires after an attempt to cross the picket line sparked a brawl that only broke up after armed guards hired to “secure the machinery” fired into the melee, killing 3 and wounding 9.
In the week spanning from the 12th - when the first fatalities were reported - to the 19th - when the strike was finally lifted - 80 people would die in confrontations, all but 3 of them striking workers. A further 900 people would suffer injuries, once again overwhelmingly among the workers. Finally, over 2000 people would be arrested for the incidents, with the PFL’s leadership all spending between a month and a year in prison.
Although the PFL would not secure any major concessions in the wake of the strikes and killings, “Tragic Week” as it was dubbed by supporters and sympathizers would galvanize leftist activism going into the 1920 General Election. The last remnants of the once-dominant Radical movement, the reformist-aligned Left Radical Party, capitalized on the outrage against the Liberals and secured their best ever-result, leapfrogging the ruling party in a stunning reversal from their 1918 results.
Winning 139 seats to the Liberals’ 122, they would form the country’s first minority government with the support of an expanded Socialist caucus (which grew from a solitary Delegate in 1918 to 13 elected representatives in 1920) and key abstentions from progressive Liberals and the National Union. Two weeks after the election of Antonio Yrigoyen as General Secretary of the Government, Andres Dionisio Artigas would become the second member of the family to be elected to the Supreme Directorate in Platine history.
Like the original Radical party decades prior, their first two years in government proved to be tumultuous as their minority in the Assembly prevented their most ambitious reforms from coming to fruition. But they would secure a second consecutive win in 1922, finally winning a majority in the General Assembly and with it a flurry of new labor laws. Chief among them, the PFL was given legal recognition, with its remaining imprisoned leadership granted pardons before the end of 1922.
Despite their best efforts however, Platine politics were growing increasingly polarized, with the centrist Liberal and National Union parties feeling the brunt of the pain. The Conservative party, once seemingly doomed to permanent third party status, grew in popularity during the 1920s and benefited heavily from a papal denunciation of “socialists and their securalist enablers”. The most radical elements of Platine politics also flourished in the 20s, with the right-wing Patriot Party and left-wing Socialist Party both doubling in size.
The nation continues to prosper in the post-war boom however, and for the moment the PRI can rest assured of their popularity. But storm clouds gather at the margins of Platine politics.
The deadly clashes during the General Strike were a harbinger of things to come, as Platine politics began to radicalize at the fringes
After reading the previous update again, this here would make a good campaign mission for ITTL Battlefield 1 lol.
I'd guess that given that once all said and done that the PFL leadership survived and that aside of the General Strike success. The fact that aside of the many casualties, that"do seem that all of them as well as their organic survived, could be considered as a resounding success. Especially if compared to similar strike attempt in OTL.
Also, I would guess that the crisis and the wouldn't be affected in the same way to all the UP...
Being the most affected the ones most industrialized or highly depending from the interprovincial commerce. Also, conversely one of the economic sectors most affected by the strike, guess that would be the sea/river port activity/ services.
Finally, I'd think that the he new party coalition and the new UP elected leader would (given the UP size and international position) found both internal as foreign mistrust and resistance towards his reforms.
Also, I would guess that the crisis and the wouldn't be affected in the same way to all the UP...
Being the most affected the ones most industrialized or highly depending from the interprovincial commerce. Also, conversely one of the economic sectors most affected by the strike, guess that would be the sea/river port activity/ services.
Finally, I'd think that the he new party coalition and the new UP elected leader would (given the UP size and international position) found both internal as foreign mistrust and resistance towards his reforms.
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