A New World Wreathed in Freedom - An Argentine Revolution TL

That is what the Long Depression was, and also it remained #2 in per capita industrialisation behind only USA up until 1914, and a fair bit ahead of Germanys #3. Though due to population Germany had more overall industrialisation
Oh, I misread. I guess that today I learnt something new.


Though for the record it seems that ITTL the UP is as much if a british satrapy as Argentina was OTL but being successful instead of the shithole it id today I don't think they would end up at war unless some really weird shit happened.
 
Though for the record it seems that ITTL the UP is as much if a british satrapy as Argentina was OTL but being successful instead of the shithole it id today I don't think they would end up at war unless some really weird shit happened.
Perhaps early on, but by the 1910s-20s that is no longer tenable. The UP was an Industrial Peer with similar population in the 40 millions.
 
Perhaps early on, but by the 1910s-20s that is no longer tenable. The UP was an Industrial Peer with similar population in the 40 millions.
I mean, it's probably not a pseudo colony anymore but I'm pretty sure it's still firmly either in the UK or US' sphere of influence. Remember the UP is kinda buffed up Canada, not a great power.

The UP was an Industrial Peer .
Yeaaah, not a chance in hell. At best they are kinda around the same ballpark when the UK is at its lowest. The "modern" UP is probably on a (OTL) Western Europe level of development though.
 
I mean, it's probably not a pseudo colony anymore but I'm pretty sure it's still firmly either in the UK or US' sphere of influence. Remember the UP is kinda buffed up Canada, not a great power.
In the story, it stated that the UP was an industrialized nation with a GDP among the top in the Western World and a finance sector duking it out with America, the UK and Germany. Has one of the most extensive Rail Networks in the world and produce it's own oil, is competing in as far off as Japan in selling Industrial Goods; that doesn't translate to a Canada esp. when said Dominion has yet to breach 10 million by 1910. If Britain couldn't vassalize Italy it sure as heck isn't vassalizing the UP. And definitely not America. I will agree though that the UP just like the US has greater connection with Britain, whether that's enough to get them to send Platinian men to die is another matter.

And I don't remember calling it a Great Power, not that it has any incentives to considering the colonial requirements. It was certainly stated to be a Major Power in-story, or was it Regional Power.
 
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In the story, it stated that the UP was an industrialized nation with a GDP among the top in the Western World and a finance sector duking it out with America, the UK and Germany
Re-read the chapters. It's a respectably insdustrialized country, the GDP thing is true but does not really mean much as it's the GDP per capita IIRC (and countries like Canada come out quite well when compared with GP's when it concerns GDP per capita) and the finance sector which can compete with the american, UK and German ones in south america.

Has one of the most extensive Rail Networks in the world and produce it's own oil, is competing in as far off as Japan in selling Industrial Goods
So did Argentina, and? A rail network does not denote power, just common sense when building infraestructure and I don't remember them selling industrial goods to Japan, just trading in general. Do you have the quote for that bit?

If Britain couldn't vassalize Italy it sure as heck isn't vassalizing the UP. And definitely not America. I will agree though that the UP just like the US has greater connection with Britain, whether that's enough to get them to send Platinian men to die is another matter.
Eh, the UK couldn't vasalize Italy because Italy was a great power. You can't use the argument you are trying to make as the argument itself. "This is black because it's black" or something like that.

Also, you don't need them to contribute soldiers to the empire, Argentina OTL didn't do that and we were very firmly in the Uk camp as a pseudo colony.

And I don't remember calling it a Great Power, not that it has any incentives to considering the colonial requirements. It was certainly stated to be a Major Power in-story, or was it Regional Power.
You called it a peer and the UK is a Great Power. Either one or the other. Also there are no colonial requirements or are you going to argue that Austria-Hungary was not a Great Power? Russia?

Regional power? Sure, it's firmly that but that still nothing when compared with any of the European giants. Still doesn't change the fact that I'd rather live somewhere like New Zealand or Canada than most of Europe and it probably applies to the UP in this TL's present.
 
Indepedent Chile is breaking my SoD.
It's working overtime as TTL's Uruguay and has a lot of friends and respect. Also, every part of its border is made up of impregnable mountains or inhospitable desert, its population is as drilled as the Swiss, its army is professional and well armed, and its navy is one of the most formidable in the region. Even if the United Provinces wanted to take it, they'd bleed dry in the Andes and would be evenly matched at sea.

Some quick thoughts on the United Kingdom's relationship with the United Provinces: Argentina's OTL title of "Dominion of Honor" is still very applicable. The country has no formal ties to the UK, and isn't a vassal in any practical sense, but is so firmly in the UK's orbit that from a geopolitical standpoint it may as well be. The US and France are present and very active in the United Provinces, but they simply do not have the ear of the General Secretary like the British do. German immigration has resulted in a community large enough that diplomacy with Germany is more active, but they're closer to the Italian tier - recognized ties but no discernible common geopolitical interests - than the US/France tier.

Wrt to the UP's global standing beyond their close alliance to the UK: UP banks aren't competitive with the British (or even the American) financial sectors at a global scale, but it is significant enough that domestically they retain a substantial market share; regionally speaking, they are neck and neck with even the British in only two countries - Chile and Tawantinsuyu - but they are over-represented for its size in places like Perú, Guayaquil (but with scant presence in the rest of Colombia), Central America, Mexico and California. EDIT: It's worth noting that Colombia and Brazil both boast robust economies of their own, and are likewise over-represented (but to a lesser degree).

The domestic automotive industry is probably both sufficient for internal consumption and could eventually become an export industry as automobiles become more common; while I think it's unlikely that the United Provinces would be able to fully maintain its rail industry with domestic production alone, I expect that it might be able to sustain domestic demand for things like trams and trolleys, and potentially subways. Speaking of subways, I think Buenos Aires would still be among the first cities in the world to get one, probably around the time it got one OTL (1910s); but I think it's more likely ITTL that other cities might get their own subways, cities like Córdoba, Montevideo, Chuquisaca and Asunción at the very least would be big enough to justify it.

EDIT: Additional thoughts on global alliances: I think that by 1914 ITTL, you'd have the following major power blocks -
UK + Commonwealth + United Provinces + Mexico + California + Texas + FRCA + Portugal + Greece + Japan
France + Russia + Brazil + Italy (I am envisioning in this scenario that France may still be a Bonapartist Empire, while Alfonso I is Emperor of Brazil ITTL)
US + Colombia + Cuba + Puerto Rico
Germany + Austria-Hungary + Ottoman Empire

I am still undecided on the fate of Spain, the Philippines, and how Japan would relate to a declining Spain in a world with a smaller American presence in the Pacific. Japanese Philippines is one of the possibilities I'm envisioning. I also think that Spain would be largely unaligned in the competition between the great powers simply because it's still undergoing considerable turmoil.
 
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Have you thought about diversifying the economy of the provinces? An example that I know is the province of Mendoza (where I am from). In 1820, Governor Tomás Godoy Cruz tried to introduce the silk industry. He brought the eggs and the Morus alba tree, which is a very good food for silkworms. From 1840 to 1950, production was strong but it was not enough to set up a spinning mill. The cocoons are of very good quality and were sold to Buenos Aires and Europe. But due to a plague that killed all the worms, it didn't work. Years later, the government tried to reintroduce the industry, but for some unrelated problems it did not get results. It is one of the reasons why Menedoza is full of blackberry trees (41% of the trees) and many allergics like me suffers every spring XD. One of the reasons the silk industry was encouraged was because it was thought that it would benefit humble families.
Maybe in this timeline this efforts get more results? If you speak spanish maybe you could read the papers written by Professor Celeste Aroca from Cuyo University about the subject.
 
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It's working overtime as TTL's Uruguay and has a lot of friends and respect. Also, every part of its border is made up of impregnable mountains or inhospitable desert, its population is as drilled as the Swiss, its army is professional and well armed, and its navy is one of the most formidable in the region. Even if the United Provinces wanted to take it, they'd bleed dry in the Andes and would be evenly matched at sea.
Uh oh. Wow. I want to see the US gonna hit a brick wall when they try to kill Allende and put Pinochet in charge this time.
 
List of General Secretaries and Supreme Directors of the United Provinces.
Have you thought about diversifying the economy of the provinces? One example that i know of if the provinve of Mendoza (where i am from). In 1820 governor Tomás Godoy Cruz tried to introduce the industry of the silk. He brougth the eggs and the Morus alba tree which is a very good food for the silk worms. From 1840 and 1950 the production was strong but it was not enough to set up a spinning mill. The cocoons where of very good cuality and where sell to Buenos Aires and Europe. But because of a plague that killed all the worms it didn't work out. Years after the government tryed to re introduce the industry but for a some unrelated problems it didn't got results. It's one of the reasons why Menedoza it's full of mora tree (41% of the trees) and a lot of alergics like me sufer every spring XD. One of the reasons why the silk industry was encouraged was because it was thought that it would benefit humble families.
Maybe in this timeline this efforts get more results? If you speak spanish maybe you could read the papers written by Professor Celeste Aroca from Cuyo University about the subject.
1820 was an exceptionally bad year to start any kind of project in Argentina OTL, so it's guaranteed to be more successful than OTL simply because it won't coincide with the beginning of a period of anarchy and constant civil war. A domestic silk industry would be a huge boon, and would synergize very well with the domestic looming industry that would be developing around the same time on the shores of the Paraná.

I'm on a bit of a roll with infoboxes, so I've gone ahead and made the list of General Secretaries (and Supreme Directors while I was at it) ITTL up to the 1920s.

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What the actual flying fucks?!
This will be explained better in a guest update, but the short of it is that American attempts to annex Texas fail in the 1840s, subsequently blocking its access to the American Southwest, and by the time domestic turmoil in the US has subsided enough for the country to once again think of expansion - post-ACW at that - Texas and California have 30 and 20 years of independence by that point, and separate identities of their own.
 
This will be explained better in a guest update, but the short of it is that American attempts to annex Texas fail in the 1840s, subsequently blocking its access to the American Southwest, and by the time domestic turmoil in the US has subsided enough for the country to once again think of expansion - post-ACW at that - Texas and California have 30 and 20 years of independence by that point, and separate identities of their own.
Uh oh. Texas I can believe. California? No. No way. The entire set up was a strategy of "flood immigrants into the west and have them intentionally occupy lands Mexico owns". California was literally set up this way. Intentionally. And with the Manifest Destiny going...if you do not make California and Texas British Commonwealths/Colonies, they will be conquered by the US and the rest of the worlds will go 'Meh'. The US will find an excuse for doing that. (perhaps not for Texas, but California is toast). The US was RELIGIOUSLY OBSESSED with becoming a two-ocean country. And if the British/French still want to wreck themselves by 1900 to prevent the US at any cost from conquering California and basically have the Germans win by default in Europe, they are invited to do so.
 
Uh oh. Texas I can believe. California? No. No way. The entire set up was a strategy of "flood immigrants into the west and have them intentionally occupy lands Mexico owns". California was literally set up this way. Intentionally. And with the Manifest Destiny going...if you do not make California and Texas British Commonwealths/Colonies, they will be conquered by the US and the rest of the worlds will go 'Meh'. The US will find an excuse for doing that. (perhaps not for Texas, but California is toast). The US was RELIGIOUSLY OBSESSED with becoming a two-ocean country. And if the British/French still want to wreck themselves by 1900 to prevent the US at any cost from conquering California and basically have the Germans win by default in Europe, they are invited to do so.
Getting to California without already having Texas and New Mexico is a challenge in its own right; the US is still a two-ocean country - it still has the PNW - but conquering both Texas and California post-ACW is no longer a trivial matter. There's also the impact that a failed Texan annexation (with the corresponding military humbling) would have on the country, especially with the quite direct connection between Texan filibustering and the Slave Power, and how that would interact with partisan politics; abolitionism was also frequently a matter of fanatical devotion, and if it becomes intertwined with opposition to filibustering, American expansionism is altered in trajectory after the Civil War anyway.

I do think I will have to alter my original plans for the PNW, since it would probably take a more favorable settlement of the Oregon Crisis for the US to be willing to shift its gaze away from the SW and towards the NW. I'm thinking I should in fact give the US both BC and Alaska, one ceded by the UK and other purchased from Russia as IOTL.
 
24 - Mexico, Texas and California - 1836-1860
This is my Guest Update to this time line for Mexico. Enjoy, and thanks to minifidel for such a well crafted Argentina timeline and giving me the chance to add on to it.
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Mexico, Texas and California 1836-1860

The Plan de Perote
The decline of the Mexican Empire hit many proud military men hard. While Santa Ana was able to stop the hemorrhaging by suppressing the Rio Grande, Zacatecas and California break away states, he was left behind with an indebted centralist government whose prestige had tanked. Various liberal leaders who fled central Mexico to the north were left discontent with the state of affairs, and they simply gave up on establishing a liberal government based on the ideals of the enlightenment in Mexico. Quietly they began working on raising funds, local support and allies, and a militia strong enough to stand against Santa Ana led by Vicente Guerrero who had earlier on been elected as the president of the disbanded congress and fled to California after it was disbanded.

Meanwhile, back in Mexico, the President for Life Santa Ana had far from settled in. The previous conflicts had led to a new rebellion in what is now modern day state of Sonora by the Yaquis people seeking to leave the Mexico and a French Fleet that had arrived at the port of Veracruz alleging to collect reparations for damages that French citizens had incurred. The French representatives had travelled to Jalapa to meet with Santa Ana in early 1836 where they agreed to back away in exchange for favorable trade concessions and a much smaller reparation of 30,000 pesos in exchange for a loan of 4 million pesos designed to rebuild the army, and fund a host of vanity projects that Santa Ana desired for his own glory.

Discontent spread throughout Mexico as a new tax was levied to help pay the interest rates on the loan. Using the tax as an excuse, Vicente Guerrero formed a Junta in Los Angeles California with representatives from the cabildos of several main settlements and a few Native Americans such as the Navajo. The Junta declared that its allegiance was to Emperor Augustin who was illegally deposed, and with the abolition of the Imperial Congress, sovereignty did not fall to the subversive military leaders, but to the people echoing arguments made by the Mexico City Cabildo back in 1808 in the genesis of Mexican independence. The Junta Suprema de California declared to represent the voices of the people, and moved to declare independence as the second Republic of California.

Santa Ana raised an army to quell the new rebellion and marched North, he would avoid the Yaquis by going through New Mexico, knowing this, Guerrero himself took charge of the Californian army and marched east to meet with Santa Ana. By early 1837, Santa Ana’s army made up of four thousand men met up with Guerrero who commanded a joint Californio and Navajo army of three thousand men which was quickly joined by Apache calvary north of Santa Fe. The Battle was Santa Ana’s to lose, and following several command blunders, he did indeed lose the battle forcing Santa Ana south to Santa Fe to prepare for attack. However, fearing the devastation of battle, Manuel Armijo withdrew his support of Santa Ana and rallied the residents to form a militia of 300 men to resist Santa Ana’s battered army. Santa Ana prepared to squash Armijo’s militia when the Apache Calvary showed up and caused disarray in his lines. He opted out to move east to Las Vegas (not to be confused with Modern Day movie capital of North America Las Vegas, Nevada). Armijo welcomed Guerrero and pledged his allegiance to the new Californian Republic. A resulting battle forced Santa Ana to retreat south in defeat.

Anastasio de Bustamante, Santa Ana’s Vice President, received news of the two initial defeats and managed to see the writing on the wall. He reportedly told his aides that each year Santa Ana is allowed to play king, Mexico will continue to disintegrate. While conservatives were ecstatic fans of Santa Ana who fulfilled his promises to protect the privileges of the elite, the military, and the clergy, some like Bustamante began to wonder if he was more trouble than he was worth. Without many liberals with which to ally, they however were forced to swallow the hard pill. Santa Ana wanted to build a large fleet in Acapulco to take it to California with an army, Bustamante felt that it was a step too far. The Plan de Perote[1] was developed with the aid of a faction of moderates led by Manuel Gomez Pedraza and a sizable portion of a disillusioned military officers led by Revolutionary War Hero and moderate general, Guadalupe Victoria.

The Plan de Perote proclaimed that a new Junta was to be formed to establish a semi federalist republic, term limits for the president, stipulate rights for the states, and to fulfill the promise of the fathers of the Nation. Victoria reached out to Sam Houston of Texas and Vicente Guerrero of California (who served with Victoria during the war for independence) for support promising that the New Mexican government would recognize their independence, as long as they chose to remain independent. Houston was more than willing to support the Federalist Republicans as Texans have been fearful of a war with Mexico, and Guerrero was all too happy to help out his wartime friend and secure Californian independence.

As for Santa Ana, he had lost popular support thanks to his defeat in California and acquiescence to the French. Even clergymen began siding with the Federalist Republicans as many of them still held to the views espoused by Morelos and Hidalgo and now that they have seen Mexico crumble, they were more amicable to the moderates who represented the bulk of Bustamante’s support. With the help of Texan ships, the depleted Mexican Navy was defeated in Veracruz and a Yaqui army had sieged Mazatlán after proclaiming their alliance to the Federal Republicans. Santa Ana’s ineptitude on the campaign field led to desertions of several more officers, and even the red-blooded conservative Lucas Aleman declared himself for the Federal Republicans. After losing a decisive battle in Guanajuato in March of 1838, after nearly a year of fighting, Santa Ana raised the white flag. In exchange for surrender, he was allowed to flee the country and live in exile. Anastasio Bustamante was proclaimed by the ad hoc Congress of Monterrey (the main base of the Federal Republicans) as interim President. In May of 1838, he entered Mexico City and called for a constituent congress to form and write a new constitution based on the Plan de Perote.

Reconciliation

As the newly established Constituent Congress in Mexico City began the long process of writing a new constitution and organizing the new republic, the matter of the Yucatan remained. Bustamante argued that to gain not only legitimacy but to regain some of the lost prestige among the other nations, Mexico needed to show it was strong and stable. The Yucatan Republic presented an opportunity. The local Corillos had dominated the politics of the Yucatan since the days of Spanish rule, and the Mayans had been forced to take a back seat. Bustamante had Guadalupe Victoria go on a secret diplomatic mission to Chan Santa Cruz in Eastern Yucatan to meet up with Mayan rebels who were leading an uprising against the Criollo government. He struck a deal with the rebels, if Mexico placed the rebels as the head of government moving the capital to Chan Santa Cruz, the Chan Santa Cruz government would join the Mexican Republic and respect the religious beliefs of many syncretic Mayan Catholics.

After having struck a deal with the Mayans, Victoria moved on to the Caribbean to speak with the French who agreed to renegotiate Santa Ana’s debt. With new money, Mexico built a small fleet and attacked the Yucatecan fleet at the port city of Campeche. An Army marched into the Port of Campeche and them moved into the interior of the Peninsula to eventually attack Merida in the north.

Meanwhile, Bustamante had managed to plicate the Yaquis by promising to establish Sonora as a free and sovereign state of the republic, essentially ensuring that the new republic would be a federalist republic. He also met up with Sam Houston and Vicente Guerrero in Santa Fe in rare meeting of three presidents to formalize the war time agreement. California and Texas promised to remain free and independent from all nations and not to cede territory to any third party. In exchange, Mexico offered them its recognition of independence. There were a few stipulations, one of the main stipulations concerned the border of Texas. Texans claimed a large section of land claimed by the Californians in Eastern Mexico City and they also claimed the Rio Grande as their southern border where as Santa Ana’s government recognized the Neuces river as the border. A compromise was met where Texas would pay belated reparations to Mexico (3 million pesos, which coincidently is what Mexico owed France) and Mexico would wave reparations from California if it gave up half the land that the Texans claimed. The deal was a hard sell for both Houston and Guerrero, but they managed to make it work.

The matter of Central America was the last issue to deal with. Bustamante offered an olive branch to Central America hoping to exert influence there, a sort of long game. Having made peace with its break away territories, and gaining some back, it seamed as though Mexico was set on a new path forward.

A New Decade

Bustamante became known as the healer of Mexico, but Guadalupe Victoria still held massive amount of popularity among the people. Both ran against each other in the first elections of 1840, established by the new Constitution of 1839, leading to a Moderate victory placing Victoria as Mexico’s first democratically elected President for a 4-year term. Bustamante, though undoubtably tempted to challenge the results, decided to concede for the greater good of the nation gaining the admiration of Mexicans for generations to come.

Victoria worked quickly to establish a favorable loan from the UK, build relations with other American nations, and appointed Lucas Aleman as the interior secretary (Secretario de Hacienda) to build a national banking system, invest in infrastructure in Central Mexico, and establish the first Mexican railroad connecting Veracruz to Puebla. [2] Victoria also worked to mitigate the abuses of the Clergy and Miltiary who benifited from special prevliges such as the Fueros (separate court systems). He didn’t follow in California’s more liberal foot steps in eliminating them, but what he did was to submit them under civilian authority by writing several laws that demanded that the fueros would “Uphold the integrity and submission to the laws of God and Man dealing justly and appropriately with transgressors under the penalty of federal law”. An oversight court system was placed within the Judicial branch meant to prevent corruption and make sure that military men and clergy who violated the law would be punished on the same principles as other citizens.

The reforms angered many, but they didn’t go far enough to justify rebellion. It was along these lines that new reforms were made. Such as expansion of education, and the gutting of the enforcement of laws that forbade any non-Catholic religion in Mexico, as long as people kept their non-Catholic practices out of sight. This allowed for the attraction of investment from protestant nations such as the UK and the US and further investment from France. By 1844, the new elections were be held, Victoria made no move to change the prohibition on consecutive terms. Manuel Gomez Pedraza ran as the Moderate candidate gaining a slim victory. Pedraza, for the most part continued to implement Victoria’s reforms and was able to continue to invest in mining and trade. In 1845, for example, new mercury production began and loans provided to business saw the growth of textile factories which led to local investment in other ventures.

Immigration from the UK brought in new machines and mining experts from dried up mines in the Uk. For the first time in decades, Mexican metal production began to increase and yield valuable profits. Under Pedraza’s administration, the railroad was expanded to Mexico City and Acapulco connecting and a few secondary railroads were under development by the end of his term. Where the railroad didn’t go, roads did. Central Mexico became more accessible to trade. These improvements, however were limited as many Mexicans didn’t enjoy their benefits, especially outside of Central Mexico, but for the first time in recent memory, things were looking bright [3]

The Bear and the Lone Star Republics

Vicente Guerroro had helped establish a secular federalist republic in California after his victory in New Mexico. With Baja California, Alta California, New Mexico, and the native dominated Arizona being recognized as its four states with a large unorganized territory, left much open land for settlement. Immigrants mainly from Mexico and the United States moved in to settle these lands. Unlike the experience with Texas, many American immigrants didn’t feel too strongly about wanting to create breakaway states. The Californian constitution offered many of the same rights that the US constitution offered. Not many of the settlers were slavers, and the issue of California’s abolition of slavery was not a major cause for concern.

Financially, the government was hard pressed to keep itself in the black. Some precious metals were found and a few investors form the UK were able to prop up mining, but its economy was largely agrarian. Maritime trade with Mexico grew in importance during the mid-1840s as Mexico now had a railroad connecting Veracruz to the Pacific. Alta California began hosting British vessels on their way north to their isolated territories. A deal was made with Texas to being plans for a transcontinental railroad to connect San Francisco bay to Galveston Bay. Both nations had to deal with unfriendly native Americans however, especially the Comanche.

Texas had a stronger economy but an existential problem. Many Texans desired to join the United States due to cultural and familial connections with the US, these were known as Annexationists. They were opposed by Texan Nationalists who felt that Texas should chart its own path forward. Another concern that the Nationalists had was its treaty with Mexico and California (The Treaty of Santa Fe). It had stipulated that the territorial concessions were based on maintaining its independence. They did not want to lose territory for the sake of being part of the United States which didn’t seem to have too many advantages over the status quo. Texan independence was assured by Mexico and California, with whom Texas enjoyed healthy trade relationship with and were allies against the Comanche. Joining the US would rock the boat and lead to too many unknowns.

For the Want of a Destiny

The issue of annexation was brought to the forefront by a coup attempt perpetrated by American filibusters (military adventurists) against Sam Houston, a Nationalist, early in his second term in 1841. Nationalist forces were able to defeat the coup attempt. In reaction to this, Mexico called for a military alliance, a mutual defense pact. Houston was unable to get the pact ratified by Congress, however Mexico and California moved on to form it without Texas vowing to enforce the Santa Fe treaty. Under Mirabeau Lamar’s administration, a new attempt to ratify a mutual defense led to a second annexationist coup attempt that coincided with another filibuster. This time it led to weeks of fighting requiring support from a Mexican garrison in Corpus Christi to march north and help defend Galveston. In 1845, a contentious election between Sam Houston and Mirabeau Lamar, an Annexationist.

The British had been making moves to pressure Texas to joining its sister republics, California and Mexico, in abolishing slavery. Initially, Lamar was a nationalist but found these British moves to be threatening and sought protection with the US. Houston was someone on the fence on the issue of annexation. British influence in California had grown dramatically by 1844 and it was actively fighting an economic war of sorts over influence in Mexico as both nations constantly tried to outbid each other, a situation which Mexico welcomed as it meant that neither nation would hold total sway over the economy, yet it would allow the flow of foreign capital. As a result of British pressure, Lamar firmly joined the annexationist camp. Fearing that Texas would fall to another coup, Mexico intervened and got the British to back off in time for the election giving Houston ammunition to argue in favor of the Nationalists claiming that Texan sovereignty is guaranteed by its allies who were united in blood shed to defeat Santa Ana, the boogeyman of the three republics. [4]

Houston managed to secure a third term indebted to the Nationalists, even though he still was concerned about the fate of slavery. Slavery was enshrined in the Texan constitution, an aspect many Californians and Mexican felt uncomfortable with but they ignored it for they feared American Expansionism even more. It was their pressure on the British to end their attempts at getting Texas to emancipate its slaves that kept Nationalists in power, as a new trend among annexations was beginning to take form that compared them to abolitionists.

The Drums of War

The US had a thirst for more land. It wanted the Oregon country, it wanted Texas and it wanted California. Some even felt that they had a right to some Mexico’s territory such as Sonora. Southerners even felt that they ought to take Cuba. The Oregon territory was claimed by the United Kingdom who shared Mexico’s concerns about American expansion. In 1845, James K Polk ran on the promise of expansion, even promising to resort to war if need be.

A third coup in Texas erupted, this time it was successful placing Lamar in power who immediately called for annexation. The US was all too happy to oblige. In reaction, Mexico declared that an unfree Texas meant that it and California could claim the Texan southern and Western territories.

Most Slaves were concentrated in Eastern Texas, mainly close to the gulf coast. As a result, many Central, Western, and Southern Texans only supported slavery in theory, but seeing their lands under foreign rule angered them against the “selfish easterners”. With Houston in hiding, a nationalist insurgency began, funded and supported by Mexico and California.

In 1846, Polk ordered Zachary Taylor to cross the Nueces River to apprehend nationalist “bandits”. His force was intercepted by a Mexican calvary unit. Polk claimed that American blood had been spilled on American Soil, and gained a war declaration from Congress. The Texan War had begun.

The Texan War/La Guerra Tejana

The British had protested Texan annexation and called it illegitimate, and then promptly supported Californian and Mexican territorial claims. The French also sided with Mexico. Taylor’s army was able to push back Mexican forces from Corpus Christi and then marched south to Monterey where General Mariano Arista led a three day defense of the city forcing Taylor to retreat in defeat. [5]

Another American army sent to take Santa Fe was worn down by Navajo and Apache calvary. By the time it reached Santa Fe, a Californian army was waiting for them and put up a strong defense but eventually was forced to withdraw. The Americans however were too badly battered to move beyond Santa Fe. In the Pacific, a fleet sent by the US met a similar fate. They were able to defeat the Californian navy and land near Los Angeles, but with the arrival of Mexican Ships and reinforcements making their way up the California Peninsula, the US would lose its foothold in California.

With the advent of hostilities, negotiations over the Oregon territory between the US and the UK broke down. Mexico began courting British intervention. In the meantime, the Mexican fleet in the Gulf of Mexico was able to defend against initial American attempts to blockade the coast, until the arrival of a larger fleet blockaded Veracruz threatening a naval invasion in the heart of the nation. With limited options, Arista moved ahead to invade Texas crossing the Rio Grande and reclaiming Mexican territories. The US Army was having difficulty dealing with nationalist rebels and being forced to safeguard the “property” of Texans in Eastern Texas. With the earlier set backs the war had become unpopular along sectional lines causing a rift between northerners and southerners. A similar rift was becoming more apparent in Texas, as Nationalists saw Mexico as their natural allies and Annexationists saw themselves as Americas (specifically southerners).

In 1847 the British sent their fleet to lift the blockade of Veracruz, though they were not aware of the landing of Winfield Scott’s army in the city. After harsh fighting he was able to take the city and moved on to Jalapa with the aim of taking making a path to Mexico City. Thanks to the railroad, Mexico was able to rush in large numbers of troops and militia men. The Battle of Jalapa was the bloodiest battle of the war leading to a stalemate. However, Scott’s momentum was killed and with the arrival of the British fleet, he lost his supply lines and was forced to live off the local land. A second British fleet arrived at New Orleans and Galveston Bay. Arista then went on the offensive taking Austin and San Antonio with the help of Nationalists. In November of 1847 a cease fire was declared and months later in 1848 negotiations for the treaty of Galveston Bay.

As per the Treaty, the US will cede Texas to the Nationalists, pay reparations to Mexico and California, $10 million and $5 million respectively. The US also committed itself to not gain anymore territory in North America by war or purchase. The UK, in exchange, offered to recognize that the Monroe doctrine applied to Hawaii and an agreement over the division of the Oregon territory, of which the US would pay an additional $5 Million. Both the US and the UK agreed to work to create a canal in Central America and that the UK would officially help enforce the Monroe Doctrine with the use of its navy. The Treaty was reluctantly ratified by the US congress and only pushed through upon the threat of a complete naval blockade by the British.

Aftermath of the War

While the United States would descend into a decade of sectionalism that eventually resulted in a civil war in the 1860s, California, Mexico and Texas entered a new era of prosperity. As soon as the ink to the peace treaty dried, discovery of easily accessible gold in California gave birth to a massive gold rush drawing in hundreds of thousands of new immigrants from Mexico, Texas, the United States and Europe. Immigrants from the US and Europe sought a path through Texas and New Mexico or across the American plains and through the Rocky Mountains. The Safest path, however, was going to Veracruz (mainly from New Orleans) hopping on the railroad to either Acapulco or Mazatlán and charting a ship to Los Angeles. Some crossed Mazatlán and landed in La Paz in Baja California and would go up to Alta California by land.

In late 1848, the Trans American railroad began construction using investments from the UK and the US between Galveston Bay and San Francisco Bay, large section of it were completed between San Francisco and Los Angeles, Galveston to Austin. The movement of peoples aided in the development of Central Mexico as well its port cities thanks to the increased traffic. A new election brought in a conservative to the Mexican presidency, Lucas Aleman. From 1848 to 1852 he continued to work on improving Mexican infrastructure, building a navy, and expanding education.

Texas itself began a slow process of change. The Nationalists grew resentful of slavers over their support of annexation. When the Second Republic of Texas was declared, they made sure to not include protections to slavery out of spite, though not out of any desire for abolition although there were a few who began to question the institution itself. The first Texan constitution forbade emancipation and even prevented slavers from freeing their own slaves. It also called for the slow deportation of free colored people. Nationalists however recognized the citizenship rights of Hispanics. Nationalists sought to punish Annexationists as traitors. They were either to leave and take their slaves or have their “properties” confiscated. The problem with exile was that the Treaty of Austin stipulated no foreign slave may be a slave in the US, nor may any foreign black person be enslaved, a stricter interpretation of the abolition of the slave trade. Confiscation of black slaves led to a problem for the Texans, the solution was to recognize them as free blacks and treat them as foreign nationals. Eventually a small growing movement began calling for gradual eradication of slavery in the 1860s. While Californians and Mexicans practiced Mestizaje (race mixing) Texans were more than reluctant. Some influence from its neighbors did seep into Texan views on race allowing for a new category of persons, colored. Colored people were mainly descendants of Hispanics and seen as marginally better than Native Americans and Blacks. This influence, however, would not prevent the development of harsh racial segregation and oppression that followed gradual emancipation for Afro Texans that became later on anachronistically dubbed as "Proto-Apartheid". This system of racialized oppression was borrowed by several states of the United States to varying degrees after the end of its post civil war reconstruction and was known at the time as "The Black Codes". A striking reminder of the ambivalence that Mexicans and even the liberal Californians have in regards to black and native peoples is that both nations turned a blind eye to their plight since they hated the notion of annexation more than they did their treatment.

The 1850s

The Early 1850s saw continued development of the three republics. Texas began a slow process of stabilization following another filibuster led by William Walker. He had successfully gained control of Galveston Bay in 1851 and called for the creation of the Free State of East Texas. Several militias in Eastern Texas rose up to his defense causing a long string of skirmishes between Secessionists and Nationalists. This became known as the Texan Civil War which lasted for five months ending with the arrival of a Mexican expedition that landed in Galveston Bay and marched to the Sabine river to cut off the material support that Walker's forces received from the United States. By 1852, a railroad connecting Galveston to Austin to Monterey was completed at the same time as the Galveston-San Francisco Railroad had been finished. These two lines increased trade and cultural exchange between the three nations further dissuading the Annexationist camp. It was also during this time that a new generation of Texans were beginning to enter the political sphere that did no have any memories of the United States beyond a brutal war that the US lost who were more determined to keep the Lone Star republic on its own path.

California pursued a mixed policy when it came to the indigenous people in its territories. Some groups were approached as "civilized" such as the Pueblo and dealt with as equals and even as citizens. But where transient groups got in the way of the Galveston-San Francisco railroad, they were dealt with as harshly as Texas and the US often treated their indigenous population. A series of conflicts took place between 1851 and 1855 known as the Pacification Campaigns, but more recently termed as a event of ethnic cleansing. Indigenous groups led by the Comanche found themselves being attacked by a joint force made up of military unites, ruthless mercenaries, and settlers from California, Mexico, and Texas. California was quickly becoming a true melting pot of different peoples. That diversity, although misleading given that whites were still preferred, was attractive to Mormon refugees fleeing persecution in the United States. They were allowed to settle what is now modern day Yuta in the Gran Lago Salado region. There they found the future capital of the state, Salada. Mormons were quick to adopt Spanish and came to be seen as ideal immigrants. They became fiercely loyal to California, pro secularists, and even began changing aspects of their views on race to include mestizaje as a part of their doctrine.

In Mexico, the 1850s also brought about changes. While in the mid 1830s many liberal leaders fled to California, a new crop of liberals began to enter maturity. One of the catalysts to a change in the political structure was the reforms by President Aleman, the conservative had pushed through a reform allowing for a consequtive reelection of which he ended up winning in 1852 with the promise to not run again. The divisions caused by the struggle between liberals and conservatives that have caused strained politics elsewhere did not take place in the intervening years. Moderates and Conservatives were able to govern without too much animosity. However the new generation looked to California as an example of the virtues of Liberalism. Flocking to the Moderate party, liberals began pushing for new reforms. Every year it seemed as the ranks of the Moderate Party were starting to grow outpacing the Conservative party, they even began taking in more liberal ideas and members. Conservatives tolerated it due to the economic growth brought about by the stability of the democratic process of the past 20 years.

Ignacio Comonfort was the Moderate president elected in 1856 with the support of the new liberal faction. However, feelings of betrayal soon boiled over into a split bringing about the return of the Liberal Party led by a Zapotec, Benito Juarez. The Three way elections of 1860 were contentious to say the least as conservatives threatened the return of a centralist republic, and with Juarez's slim victory, civil war soon broke out. With the two premier republics of North America (Mexico and the US) tearing themselves apart, The French began making renewed moves to reassert its influence in the region.
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[1] Named after OTL Plan de Perote which was a coup against Vicente Guerrero’s presidency that ushered the end of the first federal republic and the rise of the first centralist republic. I love the use of irony in timelines. Anastasio Bustamante couping a dictator to form a more democratic government…

[2] Lucas Aleman either did these things or attempted to do them in the OTL. In my opinion, this guy was a bit of a Mexican Benjamin Franklin/Hamilton if you ask me.

[3] The 1830s and 1840s in OTL Mexico did see the rise of a few hundred “factories” mostly in textiles. Investment into Mercury production took place in the same time period as TTL. OTL Victoria’s presidency did see nominal stability and economic growth and Mexico was able to build a small navy to harass the Spanish, fund an army to rebel a Spanish invasion, and help spur domestic economic growth (although modestly). By the 1840s many British immigrants helped prop up the mines as well. The Mex/American stunted this progress, then followed by the Reform War and then the French intervention
.

[4] Lamar did flip from being against annexation to annexation in OTL for the same reasons as TTL. So did Houston, the thing with Texas is…it’s all about slavery. Its existence and annexation are based on slavery. The threat of Mexico also helped push annexation as well.

[5] OTL Arista did not command the forces in Monterey….butterflies work in mysterious ways? The battle was mismanaged by Ampudia, so ITTL, Arista does a better job defeating Taylor.
 
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I find the idea that the US lost a war against Mexico and the separatist republics to be borderline ASB. Nevermind that the Californians and Texans actually wanted to stay separate. It makes little sense when one remembers they were a blatant attempt at a land grab.
They did not want to lose territory for the sake of being part of the United States
Hahaha how cute, they honestly believe they would need to respect any deal made if they joined the US.
 
I find the idea that the US lost a war against Mexico and the separatist republics to be borderline ASB. Nevermind that the Californians and Texans actually wanted to stay separate. It makes little sense when one remembers they were a blatant attempt at a land grab.
California split away for different, internal Mexican reasons earlier than OTL, with no significant American presence on the ground at the time. Texas itself was also divided politically on the issue of annexation, and these are all events 30 to 40 years after the POD. It is not the same Mexican government, or army, or Texan army or government, or Californian army or government. Texan Independence was as much about slavery as it was about separatism, and that separatism wasn't always specifically annexationist.

The US still wasn't in the practice of maintaining large standing armies, and the fighting would be on a much longer front, against more enemies; the inherent peril of naval invasions is another factor, since it leaves you vulnerable to being cut off in the rear if your port of entry is lost.
 
California split away for different, internal Mexican reasons earlier than OTL, with no significant American presence on the ground at the time. Texas itself was also divided politically on the issue of annexation, and these are all events 30 to 40 years after the POD. It is not the same Mexican government, or army, or Texan army or government, or Californian army or government. Texan Independence was as much about slavery as it was about separatism, and that separatism wasn't always specifically annexationist
True as that may be, California would have a pitiful population and depend a lot on American immigration. Texas on the other hand even with a stronger nationalistic feel would not go independent when the desire for unification is strong enough to get coup attempts every few years.

Also this Mexico is different alright, but so far (at least until this contribution) it all went worse for Mexico and OTL Mexico was already pretty sad to begin with. Here they seem lucky not to implode.


The US still wasn't in the practice of maintaining large standing armies, and the fighting would be on a much longer front, against more enemies; the inherent peril of naval invasions is another factor, since it leaves you vulnerable to being cut off in the rear if your port of entry is lost
Sure but the US is still the closest approximation to the roman culture we have in the "western" world. Violent warlike people who feel conquering is their right and obligation.

The US is richer and more populated, with a tradition of winning wars (no matter how few) whereas ITTL Mexico has been destiny's punching bag.


Also, while you could make an argument for the British carrying the day the truth is that while Britain could blockade the US, at the end of the day their trade with the US is worth more than a few counterbalance/puppet stated in North America.


Mind you, I could see the US giving up on having (all) Texas and California and making peace but here the US outright lost and was forced to renounce on the acquisition of territory in North America, that would simply not be accepted.
 
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