Personally i think the Saudis are also screwed, Sorario specifically said that its questionable wether the arab world surrvivies at all so Id think that includes the Saudis in the general screwedness.
The Footprint of Mussolini - TL
Deleted member 109224
A lot to unpack, but I really like this update.
A Hohenzollern Germany without Brandenburg or Prussia is a fun fun fun concept indeed. Prussia being dismantled makes sense - I recall that even during the Weimar era there were pushes to create a separate Rhineland Free State separate from the Prussian Free State. There's quite a bit of mental gymnastics going on it seems... Prussianism is still being considered a cause of German militarism TTL (I think) and thus the imperative to dismantle/destroy Prussia is still there, but the WAllies are sticking a Hohenzollern on the throne.
Frankfurt as West German Capital is powerful. OTL they stuck it in Bonn instead of Frankfurt because the intention was that Germany would be reunified one day and the capital would go back to Berlin. The concern/thought process was that if the capital was put in Frankfurt, a big city with a lot of historical legitimacy, the capital would not go back to Berlin should the country ever reunify.
Adenaur OTL hated anything Prussian. He said he disliked the "Asian steppe" east of the river. He was so anti-eastern that he complained about East German who moved to West Germany. He wanted to swap West Berlin for Thurgingia, Schwerin, and Schwerin. The Monarchy vs Republic issue may foster stronger division of identity between east and west TTL.
@Herr Frage I saw that you raised the question of West Germany's land and resources compared to OTL. IIRC most of the Germans in the ceded territories were sent to West Germany OTL. East German retaining Silesia south of the Oder and (I think) Stettin probably balances West Germany having Thuringia and western Saxony as far as population goes. As far as natural resources go, West Germany has more.
There's also a question of what happened to the Germans of Hungary, Slovenia, and Czechia TTL. If Germans in those countries were not expelled or fewer Germans were expelled, then West Germany has fewer people.
The Royal Houses of the Kingdoms Bavaria, Saxony, and Wurttemburg are restored but the states themselves aren't made into Kingdoms? How does that work exactly?
What are the internal divisions of West Germany? Are they more similar to OTL's West Germany/Germany, more similar to the Weimar-era divisions, or something else? If, for example, the boundaries are more similar to OTL West Germany's, then there is a question of where the Wittelsbachs are Kings (only in Bavaria state? In Bavaria State and the Palatinate? If they're Kings of Palatinate is that just palatinate or all of Rhineland Palatinate? etc.) and where the House of Wurrtemburg is King (only in Wurrtemburg or over the entirety of the state of Baden-Wurrtemburg?). Do the Hohenzollens get a special status in the province of Hohenzollern?
What is the status of Saarland? The same as OTL's?
A Hohenzollern Germany without Brandenburg or Prussia is a fun fun fun concept indeed. Prussia being dismantled makes sense - I recall that even during the Weimar era there were pushes to create a separate Rhineland Free State separate from the Prussian Free State. There's quite a bit of mental gymnastics going on it seems... Prussianism is still being considered a cause of German militarism TTL (I think) and thus the imperative to dismantle/destroy Prussia is still there, but the WAllies are sticking a Hohenzollern on the throne.
Frankfurt as West German Capital is powerful. OTL they stuck it in Bonn instead of Frankfurt because the intention was that Germany would be reunified one day and the capital would go back to Berlin. The concern/thought process was that if the capital was put in Frankfurt, a big city with a lot of historical legitimacy, the capital would not go back to Berlin should the country ever reunify.
Adenaur OTL hated anything Prussian. He said he disliked the "Asian steppe" east of the river. He was so anti-eastern that he complained about East German who moved to West Germany. He wanted to swap West Berlin for Thurgingia, Schwerin, and Schwerin. The Monarchy vs Republic issue may foster stronger division of identity between east and west TTL.
@Herr Frage I saw that you raised the question of West Germany's land and resources compared to OTL. IIRC most of the Germans in the ceded territories were sent to West Germany OTL. East German retaining Silesia south of the Oder and (I think) Stettin probably balances West Germany having Thuringia and western Saxony as far as population goes. As far as natural resources go, West Germany has more.
There's also a question of what happened to the Germans of Hungary, Slovenia, and Czechia TTL. If Germans in those countries were not expelled or fewer Germans were expelled, then West Germany has fewer people.
The Royal Houses of the Kingdoms Bavaria, Saxony, and Wurttemburg are restored but the states themselves aren't made into Kingdoms? How does that work exactly?
What are the internal divisions of West Germany? Are they more similar to OTL's West Germany/Germany, more similar to the Weimar-era divisions, or something else? If, for example, the boundaries are more similar to OTL West Germany's, then there is a question of where the Wittelsbachs are Kings (only in Bavaria state? In Bavaria State and the Palatinate? If they're Kings of Palatinate is that just palatinate or all of Rhineland Palatinate? etc.) and where the House of Wurrtemburg is King (only in Wurrtemburg or over the entirety of the state of Baden-Wurrtemburg?). Do the Hohenzollens get a special status in the province of Hohenzollern?
What is the status of Saarland? The same as OTL's?
Nephi
Banned
The Soviets could always rename their part Prussia, give it a truly separate identity, a few generations raised on propaganda like, after you unified with those war like Huns ... Ignoring that it was Prussia who...
Well none of that will matter.
Encourage the "Prussians" to think about their grand contributions to Communism. Marx and after all Prussians who freed Lennin to the USSR.
The end result a permanently divided Germany that thinks of itself as two countries, at least in the east.
Well none of that will matter.
Encourage the "Prussians" to think about their grand contributions to Communism. Marx and after all Prussians who freed Lennin to the USSR.
The end result a permanently divided Germany that thinks of itself as two countries, at least in the east.
Deleted member 109224
Israel getting the Sinai seems likely, given the overall trend of uber-expansionist Israel.
Syria-Iraq has a coast in the form of Basra in Iraq, but I think Lebanon is going to be a target for expansionism (either direct annexation or something more indirect). OTL, Lebanese Ports were more integrated with Damascus than Syria's own port cities of Latakia and Tartus were.
OTL the Civil War in Lebanon was triggered by the defeat of the PLO in Black September and the PLO subsequently relocating itself to Lebanon. There were other tensions boiling up underneath the surface, but that was a big factor. Where are all of the Palestinian and Jordanian refugees TTL? If there are a large number in Lebanon, I imagine that they'd be a tool used by Damascus to undermine the Lebanese State and proceed to move in.
I'm fairly certain Ben-Gurion offered to (paraphrasing) take southern lebanon off of Beirut's hands OTL. If things get too tense in Lebanon, I can see a Maronite-dominated government assenting to a division of the country as proposed by Emile Edde pre-WW2: Tripoli and its environs becoming a free city and Southern Lebanon being separated from the rest of the country.
Interestingly, OTL when the Israelis moved into the Southern Lebanon they were initially greeted as liberators from the Palestinians. Decades of sticking around understandably changed local opinion.
@Lalli Lebanon can't be viewed as Christian v Muslim. The Maronites mostly are their own faction/identity, the Shia and Sunni are separate factions, and the Orthodox Christians are also somewhat separate from the others as well, not to mention other little groups like the Armenians, Druze, etc.
How integrated/tolerated are the Alawites in Turkey? The Alawites are an interesting group. OTL they didn't become officially Shia until the mid/late 20th Century IIRC and beforehand outside observers would not that in a variety of respects they didn't seem very Muslim at all (they celebrate christmas for example). The French were big proponents of theirs and they were somewhat opposed to France keeping them as part of Syria IIRC, preferring to remain part of French due to the French treating them well and a big fear of discrimination and oppression in a Sunni-dominated state.
Turkey is secular and assimilationist. Folks today are aware of how for decades the Turkish government tried to forcibly assimilate the Kurds OTL, referring to them as Mountain Turks. In the 1930s they tried something similar with the Alawites, calling them Hittite Turks. There's discrimination, but under Turkey the Alawites experienced a good amount of social mobility (there's a sizable professional class of them) and there's some male marrying of women outside of the group (women doing so isn't as tolerated). I can see the Alawites being pro-Turkey and assimilating a bit - swapping Arabic for Turkish for example.
If Turkey takes control of Mosul Vilayet and Syria, that's a big and diverse country. That'd be tricky. I suppose the Sunni Merchant elite could be won over and depending on how they're treated by the Baathists the Druze and Circassians could be won over as well. Maybe even the Kurds in the annexed lands for whom Turkish oppression would be a comparative breath of fresh air. Turkey + Syria + Mosul means... (1)Turkey has tremendous control over the Tigris and Euphrates and thus the restored Iraqi state would be at the mercy of Ankara for water and (2) Ankara has lots of oil money (both due to having Mosul/Kirkuk, and because they can use water controls to blackmail Iraq into handing over oil money). Proceed to use oil wealth and infrastructure improvements to keep conquered peoples from complaining.
But, just controlling Mosul Vilayet and Syria east of the Euphrates more or less fulfills the same purpose. Turkey controls the water and the oil and has the territories that Turkish Irridentists really wanted (Mosul Vilayet and the Tomb of Suleyman Shah). The Turks can set up a client/puppet state in rump landlocked Syria in which leadership is bribed with Turkish oil money and the Turks also always have the ability to threaten the place to comply ("listen to use or we cut off your water/oil/electricity/sea access").
Syria-Iraq has a coast in the form of Basra in Iraq, but I think Lebanon is going to be a target for expansionism (either direct annexation or something more indirect). OTL, Lebanese Ports were more integrated with Damascus than Syria's own port cities of Latakia and Tartus were.
OTL the Civil War in Lebanon was triggered by the defeat of the PLO in Black September and the PLO subsequently relocating itself to Lebanon. There were other tensions boiling up underneath the surface, but that was a big factor. Where are all of the Palestinian and Jordanian refugees TTL? If there are a large number in Lebanon, I imagine that they'd be a tool used by Damascus to undermine the Lebanese State and proceed to move in.
I'm fairly certain Ben-Gurion offered to (paraphrasing) take southern lebanon off of Beirut's hands OTL. If things get too tense in Lebanon, I can see a Maronite-dominated government assenting to a division of the country as proposed by Emile Edde pre-WW2: Tripoli and its environs becoming a free city and Southern Lebanon being separated from the rest of the country.
Interestingly, OTL when the Israelis moved into the Southern Lebanon they were initially greeted as liberators from the Palestinians. Decades of sticking around understandably changed local opinion.
@Lalli Lebanon can't be viewed as Christian v Muslim. The Maronites mostly are their own faction/identity, the Shia and Sunni are separate factions, and the Orthodox Christians are also somewhat separate from the others as well, not to mention other little groups like the Armenians, Druze, etc.
How integrated/tolerated are the Alawites in Turkey? The Alawites are an interesting group. OTL they didn't become officially Shia until the mid/late 20th Century IIRC and beforehand outside observers would not that in a variety of respects they didn't seem very Muslim at all (they celebrate christmas for example). The French were big proponents of theirs and they were somewhat opposed to France keeping them as part of Syria IIRC, preferring to remain part of French due to the French treating them well and a big fear of discrimination and oppression in a Sunni-dominated state.
Turkey is secular and assimilationist. Folks today are aware of how for decades the Turkish government tried to forcibly assimilate the Kurds OTL, referring to them as Mountain Turks. In the 1930s they tried something similar with the Alawites, calling them Hittite Turks. There's discrimination, but under Turkey the Alawites experienced a good amount of social mobility (there's a sizable professional class of them) and there's some male marrying of women outside of the group (women doing so isn't as tolerated). I can see the Alawites being pro-Turkey and assimilating a bit - swapping Arabic for Turkish for example.
If Turkey takes control of Mosul Vilayet and Syria, that's a big and diverse country. That'd be tricky. I suppose the Sunni Merchant elite could be won over and depending on how they're treated by the Baathists the Druze and Circassians could be won over as well. Maybe even the Kurds in the annexed lands for whom Turkish oppression would be a comparative breath of fresh air. Turkey + Syria + Mosul means... (1)Turkey has tremendous control over the Tigris and Euphrates and thus the restored Iraqi state would be at the mercy of Ankara for water and (2) Ankara has lots of oil money (both due to having Mosul/Kirkuk, and because they can use water controls to blackmail Iraq into handing over oil money). Proceed to use oil wealth and infrastructure improvements to keep conquered peoples from complaining.
But, just controlling Mosul Vilayet and Syria east of the Euphrates more or less fulfills the same purpose. Turkey controls the water and the oil and has the territories that Turkish Irridentists really wanted (Mosul Vilayet and the Tomb of Suleyman Shah). The Turks can set up a client/puppet state in rump landlocked Syria in which leadership is bribed with Turkish oil money and the Turks also always have the ability to threaten the place to comply ("listen to use or we cut off your water/oil/electricity/sea access").
Starting from the bottom: I didn't personally thought of Saraland, but it would be plausible its course would proceed as OTL. But at the same time, French opposition to let the region integrate fully with Germany might be more stronger.
The German constitutional assembly moved on two basic principles: equality between the various states, and restoration of the nominal titles of the nobility of lesser rank of the Kaiser before the 1918 revolution. So yes, the states of the Empire would go more or less on OTL borders, Hesse and Saxony being a bit more smaller but not of much, because losing territories east of the Elbe. But at the same time, it was acknowledged every German Imperial citizen is equal in front of the law, included the nobles, and the same Emperor - who passed through popular election and therefore setting the precedent that future Kaisers would be proclaimed by the Parliament. A "King of Bavaria" is just in name, albeit it is acknowledged could call himself like this in Germany, and so on. Naturally while the bulk of the German nobility would peacefully settle for this, the Wittlesbach would remain rather tipsy on privileges and power lost, but because the restoration was due of Louis Ferdinand's action, they would have to adapt. But still would attempt to assert themselves as the second house of Germany. And they would be vocal in asking titles over the Palatinate and such.
Now, German nobles are allowed to do politics - but there is, I like to think, a silent deal where the so called German Kings won't entangle directly in political careers, because it won't be kosher if a King of Bavaria, running for the CSU for example, will become governor of the state of Bavaria... Like I mentioned in the post, handling the nobility issue was quite difficult. At the same time, it wasn't possible to create a house of lords like in Britain, but well, you may believe German nobility would usually enjoy a life of jetset and welcoming back in the noble circles of Europe as restored ones.
But in truth, most of the German nobility would came out broken by the war. Part of it was purged, other fled out of Germany to see their properties destroyed or seized by nazi then squandered, other more were already on the verge of poverty. Even the Dukes of Germany would fatigue to adapt in the new Empire.
The Kaiser considered in lieu of the original county of Hohenzollern to create a "Prince of Swabia" title for the Kronprinz... But again he took time to settle German affairs and see the Empire fully established. He even wanted to make Rommel a noble but again wanted to wait the end of the occupation. In truth Louis Ferdinand in my opinion would be overcautious on his actions... He knew he got like Otto of Haspburg the chance of his entire life and his successors, and didn't surely want to screw it over a thing over distribution of titles. But I would like to think from the late fifties would start to concede knighthoods to meritable people, even commoners doing heroic deeds, up to today there would be thousands of new Von. The Kaiser would concede less often real noble titles for really worthy people, normally count and baron ones. But I like to think, if he would accept, he would arrive to give the title of Duke only to Rommel during his reign... (those again are mostly only personal supposition and not canon yet).
About the Germans of Slovenia, you may believe the Italians expelled them almost for sure. About Czechia: in this case, is highly probable part of Sudeten Germans remained there, despite many may have escaped with the arrival of the Anglo-Hebrew brigades. About Hungary I can't say, because I have another idea in development I have to propose soon. But in the end they would be the Germans east of the Oder to make the difference. Because the Germans of Schlesien will surely stay there, the ones on the east side seeking refuge in Breslau, they would be less German moving, and less Germans moving from the Soviet zone to the Western one, because smaller. The German migration movements would still affect negatively the DDR, West Germany won't lose much people. In truth TTL it gained even more people.
Regardless, Schlesien may be the lifeline of the DDR. Even if cut down in size, what would remain is still a rich enough region to be exploit. Even if less than an united region, of course.
Adenauer in fact voted for the Republic. But he had to go with the will of the West and the German people, so he would accept to work with the Kaiser. Their relationship might be less rocky one may think, both agreeing they have to work together to rebuild and heal their country. Adenauer would have to accept the CDU would move more on pro-monarchy stances in contraposition with the SPD which core would remain for decades intimately republican. But like OTL 1946 Italy, TTL 1949 West Germany will move on, accepting to be a monarchy again so it was time to work now.
About Frankfurt: here was the request of the SPD, which Adenauer won't be hostile, to get a symbolic victory if they have to swallow a monarchy - make the capital the city symbol of the revolution of 1848 and complete what a century ago failed to become. Yes, in this case it might be more difficult for Berlin returning capital in case of unification, because Frankfurt is in a more central position in Germany. It might depend much by the Kaiser of the time if Frankfurt or Berlin will be the capital of an unified Germany... But Frankfurt will remain the economic core of the country. In truth might even become a more bigger and important business center...
By the way, I bet the Cecilienhof will be reclaimed by the DDR, and well it might not be pretty what may happen to the palace. At the best it may become an anti-Hohenzollern museum, otherwise they might decide to blow it up like the Stadtschloss. And the "death to all the Hohenzollern palaces in the DDR" tour might take also Sanssouci (and the tomb of Friedrich II?) and more... In the end, it would remain just Charlottenburg. Now, Louis Ferdinand might decide to order its reconstruction (knowing he would never use it, because it would be impossible reach West Berlin) at least to give a symbol of hope to the Berliners...
And arriving on the top, history is full of paradoxes and contradictions and this is a perfect case. The same TTL flag is a clear example. The West (because Stalin OTL was more favorable to the preservation of the Prussian state) wanted to reduce militaristic and jingoist tendencies in Germany. In truth TTL such tendencies were mostly removed by the same Germans during their own Civil War, because the Wehrmacht elite was mostly obliterated in the process. But nonetheless the future German army would have to be created without being inspired by Prussian myths. After all the cry of several officers in 1918 was "to the hell with Germany, as long Prussia will be saved".
Naturally, we all know for how well conceived a plan would be, hardly will stick 100% to the original form. The same Imperial restoration was in itself the apparent contradiction of it. But Louis Ferdinand, again knowing to be so lucky, had to pay a price and this was the royal crown of Prussia. And at the same time he wasn't allowed to become Emperor to play the same games of his greatfather. But in the end, he proved to be TTL much pragmatic, therefore his reign might be successful...
Deleted member 109224
Another thought: Germany has always had a strong(ish) sense of decentralization because there were so many prominent cities. Berlin the capital, Frankfurt finance, Hamburg trade, etc.
Concentrating a sizable amount of political and financial power in a single city (Frankfurt) would be a bit historic by German standards.
Concentrating a sizable amount of political and financial power in a single city (Frankfurt) would be a bit historic by German standards.
I could see East Germany demanding Berlin as a capital for a united Germany. If unification becomes a possibility in the 70s we would still have many Germans who think of Berlin as the Old Capital in West Germany.
Also earlier in the thread there was talk of the USSR setting up a state as it model to show the glory of communism to the world. It occurs to me they might not even try that ITTL. Not because they don't want too, but they may not be able to afford too. The USSR at the present point in the TL is in a silently crisis. Famine looms. Stalin failed in leading a recovery from the war. They are more diplomatically isolated than they have been in decades. Personnel issues abound thanks to the purges. And morale wise the West sand South have essentially reached a pact against them.
The USSR might spend the rest of it existence until whatever happens in the 70s trying to become a stable power again while holding onto its slave states against insurgency. With nothing to really spare for grand propaganda projects.
But speaking of model states; might Mussolini try and turn Austria into his ideal Fascist Republic?
Also earlier in the thread there was talk of the USSR setting up a state as it model to show the glory of communism to the world. It occurs to me they might not even try that ITTL. Not because they don't want too, but they may not be able to afford too. The USSR at the present point in the TL is in a silently crisis. Famine looms. Stalin failed in leading a recovery from the war. They are more diplomatically isolated than they have been in decades. Personnel issues abound thanks to the purges. And morale wise the West sand South have essentially reached a pact against them.
The USSR might spend the rest of it existence until whatever happens in the 70s trying to become a stable power again while holding onto its slave states against insurgency. With nothing to really spare for grand propaganda projects.
But speaking of model states; might Mussolini try and turn Austria into his ideal Fascist Republic?
Nephi
Banned
Of course. Before the Germans marched in they had their own fascist Republic inspired by the ideals of Mussolini.
An Evil Miracle
An Evil Miracle
‘The War of Dragons: China 1948-1953’ by Wu Long
With the fighting in the Chinese War now reaching its merciful conclusion, it was agreed to hold peace negotiations in Budapest owing to the location’s supposed neutrality. The current border was roughly around the Yangtze, while the Xinjiang Rebellion complicated matters. Though there were representatives of the new Jiang government at the meeting, everyone knew that in all matters the Soviets would have the final say. The Soviets, led by none other than Molotov himself, arrived in Budapest on December 5th as the negotiations began. He recalled, ‘we were pretending to negotiate when we were actually begging for our lives’ and called it his most brutal assignment in all his days. The Soviets merely wanted to get a peace that would ensure they could restructure their economy away from war and hold off incoming famine. If that meant trampling on the PRC’s toes, no one cared - and if Jiang cared, she would be informed she could share the same fate as her husband. By contrast, Chiang wanted to increase his hold over China and become the sole ‘legitimate’ ruler of the Middle Kingdom, which meant reducing the PRC to a small, dependent inferior. Patton was constrained by past statements that he wouldn’t end the war until Communism was ended too. He knew he had to get a good deal to maintain credibility.
On the subject of the border, though the Soviets attempted to create one on the Yangtze, UN negotiators would accept nothing of the sort. They knew that Red China’s forces were in shambles and that they could probably reach Beijing in six months. Ultimately, the final borders would be at the Yellow River and Wei River (the latter to stop an unnatural protrusion into the PRC and keep the border relatively stable). Thus, everything up to Xian and Jinan fell under Chiang’s heel, reducing the PRC to a rump state. Furthermore, much like Berlin, Chiang insisted on having half of Beijing. This too was finally accepted, and South Beijing would escape the poverty that enveloped the PRC for the Cold War. The trickier questions would fall on the fate of Xinjiang and Tibet. While Tibet’s independence (in both allegiance in the Cold War as well as its self-government) was quickly accepted, Xinjiang was where the Soviets refused to yield. They did not want gigantic border exposure to a ‘Fascist’ state like Chiang’s, and threatened to pull out of the Conference. Much to Chiang’s reluctance, Xinjiang would become an independent state, likewise unaligned. However, behind closed doors, the rebel leaders of Xinjiang would silently swear themselves to defend the ROC if the Stalingrad Pact attacked it. Chiang had agreed to the terms for one reason: the greatest prize he could imagine.
While swearing he would never accept the loss of Xinjiang, Molotov showed his ace. Molotov offered to hand over Mao for trial. Many were shocked, thinking he’d already been killed. Others were shocked they could potentially be handing over an extreme asset when it came to information on the Stalingrad Pact. Indeed, this was the suggestion of the British, who thought Mao could be a supreme source of information, as well as a great propaganda coup if he turned on Stalin. However, Chiang would have none of it. As he would later tell Emperor Akihito of Japan, “I would have sold my soul to the Devil to send that man to Hell myself”. With that done, Mao’s transfer to the ROC for trial was arranged. Chiang insisted that unlike Nuremburg, only Chinese officials would administer the trial. It would be an explicitly Chinese rebuke to Mao, all the way to the grave. When asked if it would be acceptable to the Soviets if the death penalty were on the table for the trial, Molotov smiled and replied, “Either you’re going to do it or we will”.
It was agreed that neither side would pay reparations to the other, prisoners would be transferred and that no side would take guilt. These were fairly standard clauses, but the Soviets wanted one in particular: they wanted to re-enter diplomatic relations with the West. This meant a re-opening of the Washington embassy. Patton replied, “I’d sooner let Jack the Goddamned Ripper into this country than a Soviet Diplomat”. Ultimately, the Soviets knew that this was coming. Discussing over the phone with Khrushchev, Molotov asked what carrot he could dangle to get the Americans to accept such a pledge. Khrushchev, however, had a plan. On December 23rd 1952, Molotov told UN negotiators, explicitly making sure there were Israeli, Polish and German representatives in the room, that not only would the Soviets return all World War 2 prisoners of war, but that they would offer unrestricted right of emigration to the Jewish population, as well as ending martial law in Poland. The reason this policy was chosen was that while all three of the Troika agreed the persecution of Jews had to end, no one was sure how they could be re-integrated into society. Their homes had been given to others, their jobs to others and society had been taught to harbor an intense hatred of them. Fearing social unrest if the Jews returned to the general population, it was reluctantly agreed that the best course of option would be to try and barter the population off in return for a desirable political end, in this case the reestablishment of diplomatic relations with America. The other clauses further excited interest. President Einstein of Israel would plead with Patton to accept the deal, offering political cover by loudly proclaiming the merit of the proposal. Gaitskell, De Gaulle and Adenauer would accept, but Patton and Mussolini were still reluctant. It would ultimately take a telephone conversation with Władysław Szpilman to convince Patton to accept the offer, at which Mussolini also relented.
The Treaty of Budapest would be signed on January 1st 1953. In the West, the massively favourable change of border northward convinced the populations that the war had been ‘won’. The capture of Mao also soothed much of the blood lust that had been whipped up against Communism, with everyone looking forward to the imminent justice the West’s greatest hate figure short of Stalin would receive. Most people, though it was controversial to extreme Anti-Communists like the John Birch Society, ultimately ignored the Soviet delegation clause. The new Soviet delegation was confined to a small cottage far away from Washington, under constant American military guard – both to protect the diplomats from attack and scare them into submission. As one Soviet diplomat recalled about his time at the new embassy, “It was once a statement of your capability to get a diplomatic assignment to America – now it was a punishment’. The Soviets did not push their luck and ask to take their UN seat back, thus ensuring the UN would remain a pristinely Anti-Communist organisation. Mussolini would crow about Italy’s role in the successful operation, while silently realising how much it had cost. Mussolini would further liberalize the economy in the coming years while cutting military spending – this would give Aflaq the time he needed to build up his army. In China, Chiang proclaimed from the ROC’s new capital of Nanking (South Beijing being too exposed) that he was the only ‘relevant’ voice in China. He was left with a country that, though in tatters, not only was resolutely in his hands following the destruction of the warlords, but saw him as by far the lesser evil compared to the Soviet sock-puppet up north. Jiang was hurt by the extent of the concessions she had been forced to make and would find the role of administering ‘this godforsaken state’ to be a tiring and depressing one. It would lead to her many ‘eccentricities’ that would make her infamous across the world.
On February 27th, symbolically five years to the day when Mao began his ill-fated adventure, the first day of the Dictator’s trial began. Free of any constraints imposed by the Western democracies, Chiang structured the trial more for his own gratification than any sense of finding the truth of Mao’s misdeeds, which were indeed many and unforgivable. Mao was torn to shreds by the endless line of witnesses from Chinese society, from mothers who had lost their sons on both sides of the conflict, to farmers who had lost their whole family in the agony of famine after collectivization, to those who lost everyone they ever loved due to Red Guard massacres. Witnesses and victims likewise listed Mao’s sexual misdeeds. The victims were often forced to pause when members of the court interrupted in their fury to demand Mao’s immediate execution. The prison guards, who had lost loved ones in the war, regularly abused Mao, and his spirit slowly faded as the trial continued. Ultimately, of course, there was no doubt. On August 12th, the verdict came in: guilty, with sentence of death. On September 11th 1953, Mao was publicly hanged in Nanking to a crowd of 500,000 gathering to attempt to get a look. Chiang himself was the most prominent spectator. While many in the West felt the display was somewhat primitive, the Roman Alliance applauded Chiang’s ‘superb rebuke of the Red Bandit, brought to justice before the millions whom he dreamed of enslaving’, to quote Ciano’s press-release on behalf of the bloc. Mao’s last confirmed words were spoken three days before, his spirit having been so thoroughly worn out that he was effectively mute thereafter. His last words were, “I should have invaded Russia”.
‘Miracle: The History of Israel’ by Joel Hagee
“One week we were slaves, the next we were free, the next we were off to the Promised Land.” So recalled acclaimed Israeli writer Boris Pasternak upon arrival in Israel shortly after the signing of the Treaty of Budapest. Fellow Israeli writer Vasily Grossman would call the news ‘Our Rapture’. The news of their deliverance was met more with shock and bewilderment than any wild outpourings of joy, but one thing was for sure: few wished to stay in the brutal confines of the Communist Bloc. The Israeli government and Zionist organisations across the world contributed everything they could get to help fund the transfer of Jews out of the Soviet Union. A period of harsh austerity would define the Israel of the 1950s, as the government was forced to spend inordinate amounts of funds on not only the transfer of the Jewish population but their accommodation in Israel, where some 1.5 million Soviet Jewish refugees would settle, almost doubling Israel’s population in the space of two years (America would be the next highest at 300,000). The refugees, though sometimes given resources barely more than what they endured in Siberia, were more than content with their escape from the Soviet jailhouse, a fate millions of their fellow citizens remained condemned to. Israel’s incredible victories in what was then simply called ‘The Arabian War’, culminating in the total recapture of the Holy Land down to the Temple Mount after nearly 2000 years of Jewish helplessness, had inspired Jews to believe anything was possible in the new Jewish state. They wanted to be part of the Israeli project, and gladly did what they could to help. Foreign journalists would note that while these ‘DIY Ghettoes’ as some Jewish comedians called them were almost invariably poor and struggling to get by, the mood was never glum. Crime was near non-existent and, ironically, a form of Socialism seemed to exist among the inhabitants, with everyone looking after their neighbor. Children with holes in their shoes would play in traditional Yiddish theatre; musicians with instruments literally kept together with tape and strings would give free orchestral performances to keep the morale of the settlements up. Some would last until 1958, but they would remain indelibly steeped into the Jewish collective memory.
The refugee camps (which eventually grew into their own metropolis-like settlements) were primarily located in and around major Jordanian cities, like Amman. Amman would quickly develop a reputation as a distinctly Russian city, in comparison to the more Western European Tel Aviv and Mizrahi-dominated Jerusalem (this division was usually encouraged by Israeli leaders to give each group ‘their own space’). Amman had been semi-abandoned following the flight and expulsions that accompanied the war, and the more urban Soviet diaspora quickly took advantage of the opportunity to construct their own society from the ground up. Even today, Amman’s streets often seem to have more Russian signage than Hebrew. Nevertheless, the Soviet refugee population would quickly occupy an important part of Israeli society in general. By 1970, the Soviet Jewish population would make up some 70% of Israeli University students. Russian was given the same legal prominence as Arabic and Hebrew, ahead of English. Thankfully for stability’s sake, the new influx proved diverse in their political leanings, as the Israeli Left had long since shed any sympathy for Communism. Though times were unquestionably tough in Israel, there was little organised resistance to the influx Thus, by the time of the Second Arab War, some 90% of Israel was Jewish, even with their expansion into Jordan. The Russian influx would prove to be of immense economic, military and demographic advantage to the fledgling Jewish state.
This miracle has one unlikely person to thank: Michel Alfaq. During the Budapest negotiations, the question of what to do with the Jewish population had arisen. Khrushchev’s policy of encouraging Jewish emigration, which he called ‘the Friendly Kick Policy’, was interesting to Molotov and Malenkov, but all agreed Aflaq would have to be consulted given that it could radically affect his security situation. Molotov called Aflaq and told him the plan. Molotov recalled, ‘When I said what we were considering, I couldn’t see it, but I could feel a grin on the other side of the phone’. Aflaq informed Molotov that he would have no objection to the policy, the Soviet Foreign Minister was relieved but confused. Eventually, upon a state visit by Aflaq to Moscow in 1955, the UAR’s Dictator was asked why he had agreed to millions of Jews pouring into Israel when it would swell the army of his chief enemy. Aflaq smiled and replied, ‘It’ll be much easier to wipe them out if they’re all in one place, right?’
However, if Khrushchev thought that the liberation of so many Jews would result in good PR for the Soviets, he was dead wrong. Now millions of witnesses stood ready to testify to the dark days of their confinement in the Russian gulag system, a system that everyone knew still existed. No one attributed their freedom to the benevolence of the Soviets, since it was blatantly obvious that the country was already falling to pieces and needed a way to climb out of the hole. After winning the 1954 World Chess Championship for Israel after he had originally won the title for the USSR, Mikhail Botvinik would call the Soviet Union, ‘A monster in human clothes, only it’s so poor and ragged now few can fail to spot the monster anymore’. Though both ITO and the Roman Alliance would gradually readmit Soviet diplomats into their country following the Chinese War, the Soviets refused to recognise Israel right to exist right until the former’s abolition.
‘The Death Spiral: Stalin 1941-1953’ by Alexi Ivanovitch
The mood in the Kremlin on January 3rd 1953 was not a pleasant one, not that it had been anything else in recent months. The Troika was exhausted after they had desperately clawed the Soviet Union back from the brink. Stalin’s foolish waste of money and lives in the pointless struggles of Asia were brought to a merciful end. North China was dealing with the fact their former Demigod leader was being handed over on a silver-platter to their eternal enemy while every other Stalingrad Pact was now terrified the same fate would befall them. The relaxation of martial law in Poland and release of the German and Jewish population from their prison camps meant that the labour camp population would fall down to 3% from a height of 10% - still terrible but certainly an improvement. Their only non-Communist ally was Aflaq and they knew that wasn’t going to change anytime soon. The Soviet Union was despised like no other nation in peacetime had ever been. There was only one thing that seemed to be a source of pride: the West had not discovered Stalin’s comatose condition, at least as far as they knew. And yet soon, even that calm tranquility was about to change. It was a cold morning, cold even for winter.
The Troika was discussing what the Soviet’s official response to the Mao Trial would be. At that moment, they were startled when an adjutant burst through the door. Molotov recalled, “His face was in bliss but his eyes were in terror”. Though the Troika was not as cruel as their predecessor, they were angry at the young man’s entrance and demanded to know why he had burst in like that.
The young man stuttered. “C-comrades! I give you the greatest news possible! A miracle! Our brave leader, Comrade Stalin, he … he’s woken up!”
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Well, the troika is probably f**ked, even if it is non-lethally.
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“Comrade Stalin is awake!”
*clonk of a kGB frying pan*
“Comrade Stalin is in a coma again!”
Some poison in his vodka with the autopsy saying he had a heart attack or stroke in his sleep?
“He died from a highly concentrated lead poisoning deposit in his brain”
Do you hear that at the distance?
It’s the Dawn of the Red Tsar. Poor ********, they’re dead.
Great update!
A very interesting update. So we have:
- Definitive split of China in two and the lower Yellow river as border (Beijing split in two is really a very interesting touch, I can see checkpoints all around Tienanmen, so we would have of the four historical quarters Chongwen and Xuanwu forming the core of South Beijing along with Fengtai at their edge, while Xicheng and Dongcheng will stay on the North, with Haidian and half of Chaoyang as well (the other latter going in the South: so Jiang would have the Forbidden City and Chiang the Temple of Heaven... pretty ominous of the outcome of the war and who won it.)
- Mao being sold by the Soviets to Chiang and face his demise.
- End of the Hebrew persecution in the USSR and Russian Jews moving in Israel and especially in Jordan, making Amman a (Russian) Hebrew city. And when Israel will start to organize a touristic strategy involving Petra as well, you might believe the city will bloom even more...
- Aflaq being all settled on his dreams of destroying Israel and the Soviets making him believe this. I don't think the Troika is believing he could succeed but for now is still their man and the Arabs are still useful allies for now. Still is implied the new war might not be a cakewalk for Israel and the RA. The fact Italy is going on a phase of military budget cuts is significant not of an Italian weakness in itself, but more of gained time for the Arabs.
- Italy moving again on liberal market/capitalist economic guidelines, wise move which however will sort of clashes over the intentions of making Fascism a true third way as Italian corporativism clearly has short breath.
- Anyway we will have normalization of relations between the Soviets and the rest of the world, sign that the most acute phase of the Cold War is drawing to end (not yet cause there is the second Israeli-Arab war approaching)
- And well final plot twist and now we will have to wait for the next update.
Probably not. At least we know that Molotov is going live long time, perhaps even as long as in OTL. So either Troika manage tell Stalin why they did like they did and Stalin accepts this but might still remove them from their offices or Stalin is awake but his brain is pretty badly damaged and he is not fully functional being almost vegetable.