WI: Independent Louisiana?

[thezerech]

Let's say that the Napoleon never buys back Louisiana or that Jefferson decides not to buy it, and it goes back to Spain after the end of the Napoleonic wars. As I understand Spain was especially unpopular in Louisiana, and with Mexico, Colombia, Argentina etc. in revolt and revolution could Louisiana also declare independence?

There would be zero loyalist opposition since Spain has no real links to Louisiana unlike in Mexico or Peru or even the American Revolution where many people still wanted to be part of the 'mother country'. I think it feasible that the Spanish would just accept it and recognize Louisiana, rather than waste troops over territory that isn't even really part of their Empire and would be harder to conquer.

Now we have an independent Louisiana (presumably a Republic), how would the U.S react?

 

[funnyhat]

The population of Louisiana is too small for it to go it alone. It might find itself being claimed/invaded by Mexico, if the United States doesn't get there first.

 

[thezerech]

The population of Louisiana is too small for it to go it alone. It might find itself being claimed/invaded by Mexico, if the United States doesn't get there first.

Can Mexico really afford such an invasion? Perhaps putting in a significant amount of influence however Mexico would have a hard enough time taking it, let alone holding it. New Orleans(the city) has I think about a population of 15,000, I agree it isn't much, however, I think the U.S and/or Mexico would rather be friends with this government that can get rich fairly quickly from trade down the Mississippi. Is there a way to significantly increase immigration to Louisiana before or after the French and Indian war? Perhaps refugees from the French Revolution? OTL Thousands died in the war in the Vendee, what if many fled instead of fighting? Or were expelled?

 

[funnyhat]

Louisiana did receive a substantial number of French refugees fleeing the Haitian Revolution, as well as the Acadians (Cajuns) a little earlier. But the existing Creole population they joined was very small.

 

[LSCatilina]

Now we have an independent Louisiana (presumably a Republic), how would the U.S react?

United States invade Louisiana in order to get control of New Orleans, and takes most of the rest as a bonus for southern plantation and farm economy.
How the invasion would take places will depend a lot : a Texas-scenario or an equivalent to IOTL Mexican-American war.

But if neither France or Spain are willing to sell the place, then nobody in its right mind in Washington would let New Orleans and Louisiana (at least up to Saint-Louis) in the hands of a foreign power, or in a state that a foreign power would have no problem taking over.

 

[Wendell]

How about this?

The future Louis-Philippe of France was touring the U.S. circa 1800. Maybe he attempts to have himself installed as King of Louisiana while visiting nominally Spanish New Orleans?

 

[John7755 يوحنا]

Can Mexico really afford such an invasion? Perhaps putting in a significant amount of influence however Mexico would have a hard enough time taking it, let alone holding it. New Orleans(the city) has I think about a population of 15,000, I agree it isn't much, however, I think the U.S and/or Mexico would rather be friends with this government that can get rich fairly quickly from trade down the Mississippi. Is there a way to significantly increase immigration to Louisiana before or after the French and Indian war? Perhaps refugees from the French Revolution? OTL Thousands died in the war in the Vendee, what if many fled instead of fighting? Or were expelled?

Well In short time, New Orleans will begin to explode in population, it isn't something to be easily dismissed. It was one of the first immigrant cities in the US and with more immigration could get even larger, especially if it gains even more immigrants from say similar revolts in other Caribbean islands.

 

[HunterX]

Well In short time, New Orleans will begin to explode in population, it isn't something to be easily dismissed. It was one of the first immigrant cities in the US and with more immigration could get even larger, especially if it gains even more immigrants from say similar revolts in other Caribbean islands.

Most of those immigrants are going to be English speaking migrants from the US which would risk triggering a Texas scenario.

 

[thezerech]

Most of those immigrants are going to be English speaking migrants from the US which would risk triggering a Texas scenario.

Not if we can increase the number of Francophones in the territory significantly. In Texas, Texans became a majority over Tejanos, which is why Texas tried to form its own Republic. If Louisiana can keep its Francophone majority, in New Orleans and in the rural areas, they should be fine. I also imagine that Catholic Irish are more likely to stand with their fellow Catholic Louisianans rather than Protestant Anglo-Saxons, so perhaps bringing in Irish immigration away from the U.S and towards Louisiana?

 

[John7755 يوحنا]

Most of those immigrants are going to be English speaking migrants from the US which would risk triggering a Texas scenario.

No, the majority of migrants to New Orleans before 1860 where Haitian migrants and in some case from France. The latter had a tendency to leave after a certain amounts of time, which is an oddity I came across when reading on the histories of New Orleans.

 

[Wendell]

No, the majority of migrants to New Orleans before 1860 where Haitian migrants and in some case from France. The latter had a tendency to leave after a certain amounts of time, which is an oddity I came across when reading on the histories of New Orleans.

That's to New Orleans, not to areas further north.

 

[thezerech]

That's to New Orleans, not to areas further north.

Yes, though I'm sure there is a way to ensure a number of Francophones end up in the more rural areas too. Since so much trade etc. is focused on the Mississippi and therefore New Orleans which is a firmly Francophone city we don't need to keep an absolute majority in the Northern part of the territory.

Also how big is St. Louis at this time? I understand it to be significant and mostly Francophilic at this time though small compared to say, Boston, New Orleans, or other large cities in North America.

 

[Wendell]

Yes, though I'm sure there is a way to ensure a number of Francophones end up in the more rural areas too. Since so much trade etc. is focused on the Mississippi and therefore New Orleans which is a firmly Francophone city we don't need to keep an absolute majority in the Northern part of the territory.

Also how big is St. Louis at this time? I understand it to be significant and mostly Francophilic at this time though small compared to say, Boston, New Orleans, or other large cities in North America.

All valid points, but if anglophones populate most of OTL Missouri and Arkansas, then St. Louis would be a virtual enclave.

Now, what might be really interesting is if Native American groups move west of the Mississippi modernizing (and preserving) the groups already in the area and they end up under Louisiana suzerainty, but independent in domestic affairs...

 

[thezerech]

All valid points, but if anglophones populate most of OTL Missouri and Arkansas, then St. Louis would be a virtual enclave.

Now, what might be really interesting is if Native American groups move west of the Mississippi modernizing (and preserving) the groups already in the area and they end up under Louisiana suzerainty, but independent in domestic affairs...

That is rather likely until the 1850s, if Louisiana remains independent immigration will eventually lead to conflict it will take longer going from North to South, but it'll happen. Perhaps culminating in one big revolt.

 

[John7755 يوحنا]

Yes, though I'm sure there is a way to ensure a number of Francophones end up in the more rural areas too. Since so much trade etc. is focused on the Mississippi and therefore New Orleans which is a firmly Francophone city we don't need to keep an absolute majority in the Northern part of the territory.

Also how big is St. Louis at this time? I understand it to be significant and mostly Francophilic at this time though small compared to say, Boston, New Orleans, or other large cities in North America.

Saint-Louis had perhaps 3,000 people or so at this time.

I really do not know how to fix the issue with the migration outside of NO. It seems the biggest issue with francophone Louisiane. Even though NO's francophone population surpassed Quebec and Montreal, it was nothing compared to Canada's rural population. Further, with case studies all over the world, a urban and religiously liberal culture and community is less likely to sustain a language than a rural and religious culture.

 

[Magnum]

Britain conquers New Orleans, with the help of an uprising of local Frenchmen. Jackson is killed by the latter. Louisiana becomes a British protectorate. Also, some skunk dies shortly before any of this.

 

[unprincipled peter]

LA is too small to go it alone, and the US was gaining momentum. immigrants of all nationalities readily accepted the US model of gov't and rule. unless this new republic shows some major advantage, the newcomers are likely to say lets just join the US.

 

[John7755 يوحنا]

LA is too small to go it alone, and the US was gaining momentum. immigrants of all nationalities readily accepted the US model of gov't and rule. unless this new republic shows some major advantage, the newcomers are likely to say lets just join the US.

I am not sure about the small part. Perhaps in population, but it has vast open land that can be easily granted to immigrants. It's lands north of say Shreveport have large tracts of land with sparse merchant populations all th way to Missouri. Such things have just as much allure to them as America. The evidence of this can be seen in the emigration to Texas under Mexican leadership.

 

[thezerech]

I am not sure about the small part. Perhaps in population, but it has vast open land that can be easily granted to immigrants. It's lands north of say Shreveport have large tracts of land with sparse merchant populations all th way to Missouri. Such things have just as much allure to them as America. The evidence of this can be seen in the emigration to Texas under Mexican leadership.

The only thing is ensuring the immigration is Catholic or Latin/Francophone. Perhaps refocus Irish immigration to New Orleans? Maybe have the British try and vacate French Canada like they did the Arcadians?

 

[Skallagrim]

A lasting French Republic or a victorious Napoleon could hypothetically lead to a number of royalist French exiles eventually settling in Louisiana -- assuming Louisiana indeed is not sold to the USA (so a surviving Republic may be the best bet here). It's not a given, but it might be a way to increase French settlement. The British might even tacitly facilitate such a policy and support such a country, if only to deny Louisiana to the still-existing Republican/Napoleonic France. (And those exiles might well prefer Louisiana over British-held Quebec.)

If anything like the War of 1812 still happens in this scenario where Louisiana is not sold to the USA, and Britain backs independent Louisiana a few years later, the USA will not just be able to march in and take it. Assuming a growing population of French settlers and their descendants, it will also be difficult to just grab it later on.