Why the Chinese play cricket (The Pax Imperialis)

[sbroders27]

Also in the air, while you may have had the 'Battle of Britain' oops I dropped my bombs on London and you can call me meir moments so the USAAF will have to commit to the campaign. Surely they will be forced to hit cities in response and even with heavy daylight escort preventing large scale losses, blowing up civilian housing or industrial centres does not destroy CW defensive positions. Combine that with the soon to start CW bombing offensive from the Carribbean, would the USAAF be able to intervene much? (Will have to Contone this most interesting discussion tomorrow as it is nearly 1am here and I need sleep )

 

[GDIS Pathe]

Hence the asking not stating, I could not remember what state all the US divisions were in and did not want to go all the way back through the thread. Also not criticising the abilities of Stilwell, I studied him when I learned about Field Marshal Slim at university. Just getting my head around the dynamics as I thought there was a case to be made that given the relative quality of the US troops, how even regular divisons of the US army performed in the early stages of the war, the battle-hardened nature of the CW troops espeially in modern combined arms warfare that none of the US troops have experience, the initial defence of Canada would cost the US army far more of its potential combat power than was being projected. Then we would have guerilla warfare for however many years and success rates of the conqueror in that kind of war are not great.

Unless this US has done its best to forget its 3 years bloodbath in the 1st World War completely ignored everything going on in China for the past few years has had its pilots and troops who served in China relegated to 2nd line roles then you might have an army that has exactly zero experience in combined arms warfare. Read through the thread this isn't OTLs WWII US who doesn't have enough rifles to train with who don't have enough tanks to train with and who can't be bothered to test their damn torpedoes because they are so expensive. Also MacArthur is DEAD which is an enormous plus if you're going the performance of the Philipines division

 

[Miss Construction]

Unless this US has done its best to forget its 3 years bloodbath in the 1st World War completely ignored everything going on in China for the past few years has had its pilots and troops who served in China relegated to 2nd line roles then you might have an army that has exactly zero experience in combined arms warfare. Read through the thread this isn't OTLs WWII US who doesn't have enough rifles to train with who don't have enough tanks to train with and who can't be bothered to test their damn torpedoes because they are so expensive. Also MacArthur is DEAD which is an enormous plus if you're going the performance of the Philipines division

And @Sam Broderick gets reply 2,500. Sorry I like to keep track.

Yep there's nothing wrong with the US military (army, navy or air force). As you say, three years hard slogging on the western front (which all their senior officers are veterans of). They've sorted their glaring equipment shortfalls like the lack of a decent LMG (probably some variant of the BAR). They're still using the Springfield 03, but the CW is still using the SMLE. A lot of their divisions will be equipped with surplus 1GW equipment, but that's not bad and they're about to capture 30+ divisions worth of top of the line CW equipment in Canada. They have deficiencies in Radar but are about to capture state of the art CW radar. They'll already have the AI mk IV and two aircraft to put it in (the P38 and Ki 46). They won't get the cavity magnetron for awhile. But when they do, expect reverse engineering at a very rapid rate. The P39 will have a decent engine and will be a top notch interceptor. The aircrew does have combat experience in China, but I expect most of those will be training up new pilots, which is probably the best option for them. The M3 is a better tank than the crusader even with a meteor engine. They've messed up the first two weeks in Canada. But all those veteran regulars who aren't in Canada are in the East Indies where they will clean up.

 

[sbroders27]

Awesome , before continuing the debate I should mention I do think your timeline is great and am not criticising, just being devils advocate (and yes I am from the CW so I do have a vested interest). My automatic response to both is, are there examples in military history of countries fighting long wars, developing tactics and doctrines then ignoring and or forgetting them / learning the wrong lessons, especially in the 20th & 21st centuries (Britain & France after WWI, US in Vietnam vs US Iraq MK II). China, again, a war happening on the other side of the world taking the right lessons from it rather than ignoring or learning the wrong lessons, examples from history, 19th and 20th centuries never mind further back (US Civil War demonstrating Trench Warfare, French and British experiences in Vietnam and Malaya respectively prior to US involvement in the former).

I do take one other point without contension mind, even with a meteor engine, don't get me started on the Crusader lol.

Incidentally, as you mentioned, I am not arguing the US will not win, just how much it will cost them to win. On equipment, given the veteran status of the CW troops, surely they would know how to destroy the majority of their equipment as they retreat, unless you plan to make this a North American equivalent of the 1940 invasion of France? Even then, they hardly have Dunkirk to retreat to so may as well destroy their equipment rather than abandon it to get away by sea (granted destroying rifles is not practical but, vehicles and ammunition sure) Especially the radar system, would there not be directives to make sure that does not fall into enemy hands at all costs?

On the airforce, I was not arguing lack of capability, although again there are examples of learning air combat tactics only to change them and having to learn the hard way that the old ones were better (think RAF V formations for fighters rather than wingman pairs and 4s in the Battle of Britain). I was thinking more political necessity, the same thing driving the bombing of London in 1940. The RAF is nearly finished operationally then the Luftwaffe switches to London (leaving the debate about exactly why for a much longer other time). In ITTL you have had cities in the US bombed in retaliation for Hong Kong, considering how the US population freaked OTL over a U-Boat shelling oil depots and these attacks are coming from the countries next door, I would have thought political necessity would mean diverting strike resources from supporting the ground forces to retaliate against cities would be unavoidable. Think debate over the resources sent to bomber command and the utility or lack thereof of the strategic air campaign until they started hitting the logistic networks and synthetic oil plants (sbipers and we shall reap the whirlwind really is an excellent timeline incidentally).

 

[L4a1]

Actually there is stuff you can do to make rifles worthless quiet easily. Even throwing it in a ditch would make it hard to find, but taking out the bolt and throwing it away, or smashing the stock, or lying them on a road and driving a tank over them, or putting them on a fire. Soldiers can find lots of ways to destroy their kit even when they aren't suppose to. If units are surrounded, and forced to surrender if the order is given to destroy weapons, vehicles, and munitions I wouldn't expect there to be much left to salvage.
It will depend on the situation, but if they have time, and know that their supplies are going to fall into enemy hands soldiers will find a way to deny it to the enemy.

 

[GDIS Pathe]

Awesome , before continuing the debate I should mention I do think your timeline is great and am not criticising, just being devils advocate (and yes I am from the CW so I do have a vested interest). My automatic response to both is, are there examples in military history of countries fighting long wars, developing tactics and doctrines then ignoring and or forgetting them / learning the wrong lessons, especially in the 20th & 21st centuries (Britain & France after WWI, US in Vietnam vs US Iraq MK II). China, again, a war happening on the other side of the world taking the right lessons from it rather than ignoring or learning the wrong lessons, examples from history, 19th and 20th centuries never mind further back (US Civil War demonstrating Trench Warfare, French and British experiences in Vietnam and Malaya respectively prior to US involvement in the former).

I do take one other point without contension mind, even with a meteor engine, don't get me started on the Crusader lol.

Incidentally, as you mentioned, I am not arguing the US will not win, just how much it will cost them to win. On equipment, given the veteran status of the CW troops, surely they would know how to destroy the majority of their equipment as they retreat, unless you plan to make this a North American equivalent of the 1940 invasion of France? Even then, they hardly have Dunkirk to retreat to so may as well destroy their equipment rather than abandon it to get away by sea (granted destroying rifles is not practical but, vehicles and ammunition sure) Especially the radar system, would there not be directives to make sure that does not fall into enemy hands at all costs?

On the airforce, I was not arguing lack of capability, although again there are examples of learning air combat tactics only to change them and having to learn the hard way that the old ones were better (think RAF V formations for fighters rather than wingman pairs and 4s in the Battle of Britain). I was thinking more political necessity, the same thing driving the bombing of London in 1940. The RAF is nearly finished operationally then the Luftwaffe switches to London (leaving the debate about exactly why for a much longer other time). In ITTL you have had cities in the US bombed in retaliation for Hong Kong, considering how the US population freaked OTL over a U-Boat shelling oil depots and these attacks are coming from the countries next door, I would have thought political necessity would mean diverting strike resources from supporting the ground forces to retaliate against cities would be unavoidable. Think debate over the resources sent to bomber command and the utility or lack thereof of the strategic air campaign until they started hitting the logistic networks and synthetic oil plants (sbipers and we shall reap the whirlwind really is an excellent timeline incidentally).

There is getting beaten at COIN warfare and running back to tank warfare on the North German Plain and winning in trench warfare and then doing your damnedest to ignore all the lessons that should be learned on top ignoring all the experience in China were Japanese troops who are close US allies are actively fighting along with USAF bombers and fighters providing active air support.

Oh and BTW the French and Brits didn't learn the wrong lesson from the 1st World War the French army wanted a modern mechanized force the reason they didn't get it was a matter of politics and funding, and the US situation in Indochina was much different from French and British experiences in the country most prominently was copious amounts of resources no single ethnic group to target, and a much much better logistics situation.

Warfare is fluid sure most radar will probably be destroyed some won't war is confusing and in this era fast and fluid some will be captured intact same with the equipment a company overrun a battalion isolated and destroyed as it is when Halifax falls CW forces in Canada will be cut off. Also, the RAF was never at risk of being knocked out operationally if they were there was always the option of withdrawing North and coming straight back once their strength has been restored. Oh and just saying as politician interfering with the military and getting smeared with the labeled undermining the war is bad real bad. No, unless the President demands it the War Department will stay the course.

 

[sbroders27]

Firstly just to say, if what I write comes across as persona to indiciduals or institutions I apologise. It is nice to have intellectual debate on topics w can be passionate about rather than shouting matches so my compliments to you for that .

I still think the principal stands. While funding for the British Army was indeed an issue the best example of what I mean is the mobile exercises on Salisbury plain in the 20s with the experiemtnal mobile force, the umpires actively cheated to try and stop it from winning and it was subsequently disbanded. Plus, the best advocate of armoured warfare besides fuller and liddell-hart, Hobart, was disliked and frequently marginalised, hence being removed from divisonal command in North Africa in 38. France had more tanks than the Germans by a fair number, their doctrine for using them however was to spread them out to support the infantry rather than concentrate them and when they did, they did what the Brits did, sent in just tanks so that when they ran into anti-tank nests or air opposition they were slaughtered (De Gaulle in France, British at Arras and British again in combat against the Africa Corps in 41). I am simply suggesting the possibility that all will not be as simple and one-sided after the first 2 weeks as it appears projected.


Don't get me wrong, I am British so I have great admiration for the RAF and my grandfather flew Blenheims so was close to cannon fodder (his words in a diary). Moving away from myth and Hollywood legend, the op tempo, lack of spare parts, damage to airfields, pilot losses etc... were not sustainable until the RAF was given a break (although granted, ignoring the radar stations was an idiot and thoroughly helpful move)
The story states that with public opinion outraged, President Lindbergh authorises attacks on Canadian cities. The change in focus is already there.

 

[King Augeas]

Moving away from myth and Hollywood legend, the op tempo, lack of spare parts, damage to airfields, pilot losses etc... were not sustainable until the RAF was given a break.

This is true, AFAIK - the RAF was planning to "go downhill". Yet it does kinda miss the point about how long the RAF could hold on while going downhill, and much more pertinently, how long the Luftwaffe could keep it up for, given that they'd been "going downhill" for a lot longer already.

 

[sbroders27]

True but, before we derail the thread with the essay question, could Fighter Command have held out if the Luftwaffe had not targeted London, my point lol, was simply that air support for the ground forces in Canada ITTL would be limited because of the new directives to attack cities just as the Luftwaffe did leaving the CW air forces in Canada might and I emphasise might, have scope to provide support rather than defend the cities but that would be a political and strategic choice for the author.

 

[Miss Construction]

True but, before we derail the thread with the essay question, could Fighter Command have held out if the Luftwaffe had not targeted London, my point lol, was simply that air support for the ground forces in Canada ITTL would be limited because of the new directives to attack cities just as the Luftwaffe did leaving the CW air forces in Canada might and I emphasise might, have scope to provide support rather than defend the cities but that would be a political and strategic choice for the author.

The US will have to divert vital air resources from the front, not only to strike at CW cities but to defend theirs. This is simple political reality. And the US has a huge area to defend. This is going to seriously hamper tactical air support for their troops. They also don't have enough troops to use the initial broad front strategy. So they have to pick one target first. It will either be the eastern cities or Halifax. Looking at it, the cities is probably the better option. Even if Halifax falls, those cities can produce enough to keep resistance going indefinitely plus that's where the aircraft bombing US cities come from. I'm pretty sure however they'll go for Halifax since the US doesn't fully understand the realities in Canada.

The equipment? Even if the CW destroy every radar station, there will be enough left to peice things together by using the bits that survived over several stations. The equipment? They won't capture the whole 30+ divisions, but even with CW efforts, they will capture a lot. This is why the CW took the nerve agents out of Canada, the risk of capture is too great, the more of the stuff the US has, the sooner they'll be able to copy it.

 

[sbroders27]

As always, I defer to the rights of the author to take their timeline wherever they wish . Just thought it was worth adding a few pence to increase the casualty rates suffered by US forces when conquering Canada and add further to the interesting story dilemmas.

 

[Miss Construction]

As always, I defer to the rights of the author to take their timeline wherever they wish . Just thought it was worth adding a few pence to increase the casualty rates suffered by US forces when conquering Canada and add further to the interesting story dilemmas.

The US has more than enough dilemmas in taking Canada. They've seriously underestimated the defence. It'll have massive repercussions in the Caribbean.

 

[StormStar]

As always, I defer to the rights of the author to take their timeline wherever they wish . Just thought it was worth adding a few pence to increase the casualty rates suffered by US forces when conquering Canada and add further to the interesting story dilemmas.

The US has more than enough dilemmas in taking Canada. They've seriously underestimated the defence. It'll have massive repercussions in the Caribbean.

Not only that but the CW upper political and military leadership know that the CW can't hold most or all the territories of the Dominions of Canada and Newfoundland in the short term against the PA so are going to have a battle plans, tactics and strategies to bleed the PA white and make them for every inch. These strategies will be helped the loyal CW citizens supporting them in occupied and non-occupied areas and will be demoralising to the divided USA populous.

 

[Miss Construction]

~23rd to 31st March 1941 (Transpacific War, East Indies Theatre): Double Dutch

23rd: US and Japanese aircraft begin intensive attacks on airbases in Borneo, the Celebes and Moluccas. Though the CW squadrons are a match for the Pacific Alliance pilots, the inexperienced Dutch units making up the majority of the defenders quickly suffer heavy losses.

23rd: US troops begin landing in the Moluccas. The landing is opposed by a single Dutch regiment. The Dutch troops prove no match for the US regulars and a beachhead is quickly established.

23rd: Two Japanese divisions land at Tarakan in Borneo. Once again, the Dutch troops prove no match for the Japanese regulars. More importantly, the vital oil facilities are captured with very little damage by Japanese TSG special forces.

23rd: US troops begin landing in the Celebes. The landing is unopposed and their forces quickly begin moving toward Makassar.

24th: CW troops in Borneo move to reinforce the Dutch at Tarakan. The arrival of these veteran troops allows the situation to be stabilised and the beachhead contained.

25th: A CW division from Java is deployed to reinforce the crumbling defences in the Celebes.

26th: US troops complete the conquest of the Moluccas and begin refitting for the invasion of Dutch New Guinea.

27th: Two Japanese divisions land at Miri in Sarawak. The landing is opposed by the CW 31st (Bangalore) Division. A fierce battle develops with the Japanese only being able to establish a tenuous beachhead.

28th: Though US troops have cleared most of the Celebes, the CW 47th (Madras) Division has dug in and formed a defensive line at Parepare. US troops from the Moluccas are diverted to conduct an amphibious landing in their rear to isolate the division.

29th: In an attempt to deny the Pacific Alliance of naval supremacy in the East Indies, the Netherlands East Indies Fleet under Admiral Karel Doorman consisting of four Amsterdam class battleships supported by the Saint class carriers Timor and Flores clash with Admiral Thomas Hart's Asiatic Fleet. The Battle of the Celebes Sea sees the Timor sunk with the Flores crippled. In the surface action two of Amsterdam class ships are sunk, including Doorman's flagship Rotterdam, with the Arnhem and Utrecht crippled. The US Long Lance torpedoes prove devastating in the action. The only losses to Hart's fleet are the Pennsylvania class Maryland and the Fuso crippled. Doorman's defeat leaves the Pacific Alliance in command of the waters around Borneo and the Celebes.

29th: Further Japanese reinforcements allow them to break out of the Tarakan beachhead and begin advancing on Balikpapan.

30th: With the Moluccas secure, US troops begin landing in Dutch New Guinea. Despite a spirited resistance, once again the Dutch forces prove no match for the US regulars and a beachhead is quickly established.

31st: US troops land behind the CW defensive line at Parepare, isolating the 47th division.

 

[GDIS Pathe]

Not only that but the CW upper political and military leadership know that the CW can't hold most or all the territories of the Dominions of Canada and Newfoundland in the short term against the PA so are going to have a battle plans, tactics and strategies to bleed the PA white and make them for every inch. These strategies will be helped the loyal CW citizens supporting them in occupied and non-occupied areas and will be demoralising to the divided USA populous.

So if they know they can't be held why are they pouring additional troops into the country? The current CW units are there to show the flag and fight and if they know they will be defeated then why are they pouring additional men and material whose only fate will be to end up as POW lounging around the central US. Demoralising eh? Ever heard of the rally around the flag effect? The bombing of US cities would have likely destroyed any and all goodwill the US had to the CW and has more than likely convinced those of the anti war movement to cross the ally the US is firmly in support of the war.

 

[GDIS Pathe]

Also, when did the US declare war on the Netherlands?

 

[Miss Construction]

So if they know they can't be held why are they pouring additional troops into the country? The current CW units are there to show the flag and fight and if they know they will be defeated then why are they pouring additional men and material whose only fate will be to end up as POW lounging around the central US. Demoralising eh? Ever heard of the rally around the flag effect? The bombing of US cities would have likely destroyed any and all goodwill the US had to the CW and has more than likely convinced those of the anti war movement to cross the ally the US is firmly in support of the war.

The CW do believe Canada can be held, they're wrong, but that's what they believe. And yes, attacking US cities will massively boost support for the war. They just won't get that bombing Hong Kong should trigger this reaction. The anti war lobby may re-emerge but it won't be any time soon.

 

[Miss Construction]

Also, when did the US declare war on the Netherlands?

Yes that's an issue I hadn't considered. And they need a legitimate reason. This will require a lot of thought and maybe some retconing.

 

[rjd1997]

Yes that's an issue I hadn't considered. And they need a legitimate reason. This will require a lot of thought and maybe some retconing.

No they don't. This is the US, they're no stranger to cooking up reasons to go to war with someone who's land/resources they want.

 

[StormStar]

So if they know they can't be held why are they pouring additional troops into the country? The current CW units are there to show the flag and fight and if they know they will be defeated then why are they pouring additional men and material whose only fate will be to end up as POW lounging around the central US. Demoralising eh? Ever heard of the rally around the flag effect? The bombing of US cities would have likely destroyed any and all goodwill the US had to the CW and has more than likely convinced those of the anti war movement to cross the ally the US is firmly in support of the war.

The CW do believe Canada can be held, they're wrong, but that's what they believe. And yes, attacking US cities will massively boost support for the war. They just won't get that bombing Hong Kong should trigger this reaction. The anti war lobby may re-emerge but it won't be any time soon.

Point I hadn't thought of that, however their would be back up plans for if the North America Dominions cannont be held both with and without reinforcements. When it becomes apparent to the CW they cannot hold North America these wills be activated.