I've been reading a bit on Poland and Lithuania lately (on Wikipedia, I definitely wouldn't get a good grade in a college paper), and the end of the Jagiellonian rule in Poland and Lithuania in 1572 is a potential goldmine of an update. The last Jagiellonian king in Poalnd was
Sigismund II, who despite being married three times died without an heir. He was at first succeeded by
Henry of Valois, but he gave up his rule in the newly united Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth to succeed his recently deceased brother
Charles as King of France. He was then succeeded by
Anna Jagiellon and her husband
Stephen Bathory of Hungary, but they were both already middle aged by the time they ascended to the throne and died childless (side note, one of Stephen's relatives,
Elizabeth Bathory, is inf
amous for being so cruel and sadistic that it would make
Eric Cartman blush). Finally, the throne passed to
Sigismund III of Vasa, whose family would hold the throne for the next 80 years.
However, as
@Atterdag mentioned, the Vasas ITTL are but another Swedish noble family, not having become a ruling dynasty in the first place. The odds of them becoming Poland's ruling house ITTL are slim to say the least. This will have a few implications. First, Religion. Poland during the mid 16th Century had a strong Protestant movement, with around 1/4th of the nobility having converted to Protestantism, mainly of the Lutheran and Calvinist varieties. Sigismund II, the final Jagellion king, was notably lax towards religious matters, tolerating Protestants within his realm. There were proposals to form a Polish National Church that would unite all of the sects within Poland-Lithuania, but Sigismund II ran it by the Pope first, who naturally rejected it. Even then, Protestantism remained strong within Poland-Lithuania until the Counter-Reformation, which began under… Sigismund III of Vasa, who wouldn’t have come to the Polish throne in the first place. I’m not saying that Poland will go Protestant ITTL, but it is a distinct possibility, one that depends a good deal on the other big implication:
Look, I’m no expert when it comes to European dynastic politics. It is such a convoluted mess involving so many interlocking family trees that one change will eventually butterfly pretty much everyone by a certain point. I am going to keep the end of the Jagiellonian rule in Poland-Lithuania pretty similar, though, as Sigismund II was born just before the POD, and I don’t feel like having him marry someone else or having his three wives from OTL have kids. As for his successor ITTL, I’m not sure. I’ll still have Henry III of Valois exist, since both of his parents were born before the POD (which is probably the policy I’ll use from now on, if both parents were born before the POD, the person in question will exist. If not, they’ll be butterflied). The question here is whether his brother Charles will still die of Tuberculosis as he did IOTL. I’ve butterflied deaths before (cough cough John II cough cough), and it’s very plausible that Charles, who was only 23 at his death, would survive. However, Charles’s reign was a real shitshow to say the least, and his health (both mental and physical) went down the toilet after the
St. Bartholomew’s Day Massacre, which predisposed him towards the Tuberculosis he eventually died of. Anna Jagiellon and Stephen Bathory will still exist, as they both fulfill the pre-POD parents condition I laid out a few sentences ago, but they’ll still die without an heir.
What happens without the Vasas, though? Who would take the Polish-Lithuanian throne? It could be the Habsburgs. They’re THE big European dynasty of this era, Austria and Poland are both Catholic countries, and having control over yet another great European power would wank the Habsburgs even more than IOTL. There was
a brief succession war between the Vasas and Habsburgs over the Polish Throne between 1587 and 1588, and while the Habsburgs lost IOTL, there would be no Vasa competitor to a Habsburg Poland ITTL. While
Maximilian III could very well be butterflied ITTL, as both of his parents were born after the POD, some alternate Habsburg prince could take his place. It could be another dynasty, though. The Habsburgs would certainly implement the Counter-Reformation in Poland, eliminating Polish Protestantism as occurred IOTL. With the Habsburgs already controlling both Austria and Spain, adding Poland to their collection of crowns would definitely irk the rest of Europe. I could easily see some sort of anti-Habsburg coalition forming that would attempt to cut the Habsburgs down to size, likely led by the French. This could be an interesting conflict to write about, possibly tying in with TTL’s Dutch Revolt, which is still going to occur here in a similar manner to our world. Another possibility is that a major Polish noble house ascends to the throne. I don’t know who these houses would’ve been, but I’m sure you guys who know more than I do would have some suggestions. Finally, I could make this a true Nordic wank by having the Oldenburgs take the Polish-Lithuanian throne, permanently tying the Kalmar Union and the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth together. This would be the most likely way to end up with a Protestant PLC, or at the very least a PLC with a stronger Protestant presence. With that said, I want to keep this on the realistic side and not make it a total wank for the Kalmar Union, so I’m hesitant to make an Oldenburg PLC a part of the TL. I’d like to hear your thoughts and suggestions relating to the course that Poland-Lithuania will take during the latter half of the 16th Century and into the 17th. With that said, it’s time for me to get to work on the Poland-Lithuania Update, so I’ll see you guy soon.