Both Manco Yupanqui and Cristóbal Vaca de Castro considered a war inevitable. The arrival of Portuguese merchants forced the hand. If Castro waited Manco Yupanqui would be able to build up an army capable of fighting the Spanish for as long as he wanted. And if that happened, the Portuguese might involve themselves more directly, which could doom the whole venture. But Manco Yupanqui was not inclined to wait. He had waited too long he felt, the time was now. He overestimated the skill of his smiths and powder makers. Advisors counseled patience. There was still work to be done in the South. The conquests of Rumiñavi needed to be connected to the road system, the armies needed training, the storehouses replenishing. From Cusco his son sent cautiously optimistic messages. Give me time, he said, and I will deliver the nobles of Cusco to you. But Manco Yupanqui felt he had waited long enough.
He found ample support from his armies. Enough time had passed that the forces at Manco Yupanqui's disposal could no longer be truly called "northern". But they retained an undeniable desire to strike back at the Spanish. The Tawantinsuyu would have their own again, no matter the cost.
Castro also prepared. He stockpiled food and weapons for his men, requisitioning all he could. His reports were curt. War was coming. If it was won Spain's position as master of the new world would be unassailable. If it was was lost, and Castro was not so foolish as to believe it could not he lost, there would be more trouble then before. The merchants of Panama grumbled, as did the traders of Coca. War would be disruptive, and so they were ill disposed towards it. The Portuguese were concerning yes, but they saw Castro's escalation as unwise. Their reports told of a greedy man, desperate for blood to be shed. Castro continued unabated. The Chimu and Cañari received word. The time would come soon when they would need to march into battle once more.
In Cusco the nobles shifted about nervously. Their lands would be the focal point of any war between the powers to their north and south. This would be destructive certainly, but it would also be humiliating. Cusco, the navel of the world, a mere pawn between Quillota and San Miguel? Unacceptable. Quisipe-Tupac stewed in his cups, unable to bring himself to throw himself into the arms of the Spanish, yet unwilling to risk rising against them. And so the Sapa Inka’s once stalwart support in the capital began to falter. They had backed him so that they would be the true power in the empire, not some puppets. They could not turn towards the Spanish, and so found themselves, against their better judgement, towards Manco Yupanqui's camp.
They were aided in this transition by Titu Cusi, Manco Yupanqui's 26 year old son, technically a hostage but in reality more of an ambassador from Quillota. He assured the nobles that his father would happily relocate from Quillota to Cusco, and that his current residence was a matter of circumstance. For those few who still remembered his father’s betrayal of the Machu Picchu rebellion, he either ignored or donated generous bribes.
In another country, it might have been a time when knives were being sharpened, and when Manco Yupanqui would have been preparing his own accession to the throne. But thoughts of regicide were still anathema to the Tawantinsuyu, the Sapa Inka was still a living god. Perhaps he had some treacherous Spanish advisors, perhaps he drank a little to much, but he was still a God. And unlike their Spanish counterparts, the Tawantinsuyu did not see the death of a god as a thing to be revered. The plots made were more centered around “convincing” the Sapa Inka to shift the political center of gravity towards his uncle. No murder just...alterations to policy.
Such “alterations” would still necessitate violent conflict, so the thinking went. It would be a final clash between the two men who had dominated the empire for the the past few years.
So the thinking went.
It was an inevitable clash of titans, until it wasn’t.
In February 1556 Charles V, or, as he was known in Spain, Carlos the First, abdicated the throne in favor of his son Philip[1]. While widely known in Europe as imminent, the decision was a mere rumor in the Americas when Philip was crowned King. Castro, better informed than most, nonetheless made sure to send Philip various notes of praise and marks of greatness. This was not out of any true commonality with the young king, the pair almost certainly never met. But Castro served the Crown of Spain, and in his eyes the best thing for the Crown of Spain was for him to continue as Governor. The confirmation of Philips ascension to the throne likely delayed preparations for an southern invasion.
It was during this delay that Manco Yupanqui died. Smallpox, the king of European diseases, swung through Quillota, and ravaged the quasi-capital. Manco Yupanqui was not immune to the plague. He fell ill in late February, and died on March 10. He had resisted the encroachment of Spanish power for nearly his entire life, and died before he could initiate his final grasp for power. It was, some historians have noted, quite the anti-climax. However while the man was dead, his family was not.
It was common knowledge that Manco Yupanqui wanted Titu Cusi, easily his most able son, to succeed him. Although it was not exactly clear what the young man was to inherit. The title of Apu of Qullasuyu could not simply be inherited, that must be granted by the Sapa Inka. And Manco Yupanqui’s vague authority as chief opposition to the Spanish had no formal title to go with it.
Titu Cusi did have one advantage, being the first to know his father was dead. Word was quickly sent via rider, a rare luxury this far south, from Quillota to Cusco informing Titu Cusi of the death. He was the first in Cusco to know, and word would not reach the Spanish strongholds in the North for some time. It was the perfect time to slip out of the city, head south, and take a seat at his father’s court. There was surely no way he would remain in Cusco, where he was technically a prisoner, on the eve of war with the Spanish.
Yet Titu Cusi did not think it was necessarily to flee, and he did not think the Tawantinsuyu were on the verge of war with the Spanish.
1: As in OTL the stresses on running an Empire have made Charles decide to put down the burden and retire. These burdens fell heavier than IOTL, and so he leaves 10 months earlier as a butterfly.