The Pythagorean NFL

[Garrett Garlits]

Scratch the Oilers-Chiefs sim; I wiped that out too. Here's 1969 in the NFL, beginning in the Eastern Conference, Capitol Division:

Dallas Cowboys: 11-3 (0)
Washington Redskins: 7-7 (0)
New Orleans Saints: 5-9 (0)
Philadelphia Eagles: 5-9 (+1)

Not much to talk about here; the Eagles are the only team that move at all. Their one-game upgrade forces a tie for third with the Saints, We go to the expected win totals to break the tie, and the Saints prevail 5.1 to 4.6. Meanwhile, the Cowboys retire the Capitol Division title. as they've won all three of them.

Now to the Century Division:

Cleveland Browns: 8-6 (-2)
New York Giants: 6-8 (0)
St. Louis Cardinals: 5-9 (+1)
Pittsburgh Steelers: 3-11 (+2)

The Browns drop a pair, but the rest of the division is so mediocre that they still beat the Giants by a pair, joining the Cowboys as the only teams to win their division in all three years of this alignment. The Cards improve by one, and Chuck Noll's first year in Pittsburgh is slightly less disastrous, as the Steelers pick up a pair. (Yes, they still end up with the first pick and Terry Bradshaw even with their improved record; the Pythagorean universe's drafts are identical to real life regardless of record.)

The Eastern Conference championship game took place on December 28 at the Cotton Bowl. For the second year in a row, the Browns came out on top, hammering the Cowboys 38-14. They'll move on to the NFL Championship Game on January 4, and they'll travel to meet the Western Conference champion.

Now to the Western Conference. We'll start with the Coastal Division:

Los Angeles Rams: 9-5 (-2)
Baltimore Colts: 7-7 (-1)
Atlanta Falcons: 7-7 (+1)
San Francisco 49ers: 6-8 (+2)

The Rams still take the Coastal by two games despite dropping two. Meanwhile, the Colts drop a game and the Falcons add one to create a tie for second, and the Niners pick up a pair to make their last-place finish more respectable. We go to the expected win totals to break the tie for second, and the Colts edge the Falcons 7.3 to 7.2.

Finally, to the Central:

Minnesota Vikings: 13-1 (+1)
Detroit Lions: 10-4 (+1)
Green Bay Packers: 9-5 (+1)
Chicago Bears: 3-11 (+2)

Everyone improves by at least a game, but the only team to do more (the Bears) can't get out of the basement. Only a loss to the Falcons in Week 14 separates the Vikes from a perfect regular season.

The Western Conference championship game was held on December 27 at Metropolitan Stadium in Bloomington, Minnesota, and the Vikes survived the Rams 23-20. The following week, they hosted the NFL Championship Game and dispatched the Browns 27-7. They'll represent the NFL in Super Bowl on January 11 at Tulane Stadium in New Orleans against the AFL's best in that league's final game. Meanwhile, on January 3 at the Orange Bowl, the Rams shut out the Cowboys 31-0 in the final Playoff Bowl.

Next: To be determined.

Thoughts?

 

[Nivek]

I accidentally wiped out my Raiders-Jets sim, and the worst part was that it had a Hail Mary finish for the Jets, which is something I haven't had before. Watch, the redo will be either a 3-0 slogfest or a 52-0 rout. Oh well.

That is because you played the system that one is punishing you, you should have leave Namath Hail Mary

 

[Garrett Garlits]

Now it's time for Game 1 of the AFL semifinals from Municipal Stadium in Kansas City. Weather information at kickoff is unknown.

The Chiefs scored for the first time on their second possession of the game. They began on their own 29, and quarterback Lenny Dawson completed a 16-yard pass to receiver Otis Taylor to get the Chiefs over midfield to the Houston 46. On the very next play, running back Mike Garrett knifed off right tackle and found himself in the Oiler secondary. He quickly completed his sprint into the end zone to put the Chiefs on the board. Jan Stenerud added the extra point, and with 8:51 left in the first quarter, the Chiefs led 7-0.

The Chiefs scored again the next time they had the ball. They got the job done in just three plays: a fifteen-yard pass from Dawson to reserve receiver Gloster Richardson, a 41-yard burst up the middle from fullback Robert Holmes, and another bolt up the middle from Garrett for thirty yards and another touchdown. Another Stenerud extra point made the Kansas City lead 14-0 after one quarter.

Toward the end of the quarter, the Oilers got themselves into scoring territory thanks to a 38-yard run by fullback Hoyle Granger. At the start of the second quarter, it was third and four at the Chiefs 24, and quarterback Pete Beathard found halfback Roy Hopkins out of the backfield. Hopkins broke a tackle at the ten and scooted into the end zone for the touchdown. Roy Gerela provided the extra point, and fifty-two seconds into the second quarter, it was Chiefs 14, Oilers 7.

The Chiefs answered with a field goal from Stenerud. Warren McVea's kickoff return set them up at their own 41, and Dawson's ten-yard pass to Taylor took them over midfield. Later in the drive, Dawson and Taylor hooked up again for nineteen yards, which converted a fourth and seven from the Oiler 35. The drive eventually reached the fourteen before stalling, and Stenerud connected from twenty-one yards out to make 17-7 Chiefs with 7:57 remaining in the first half.

The Chiefs added another field goal before halftime with a time-consuming eleven-play drive that ate up most of the half's last five minutes. The big play was a thirty-yard pass from Dawson to Richardson that brought the ball down to the Houston sixteen. The Oiler defense stiffened from there, and Stenerud eventually converted from twenty-eight yards to give the Chiefs a 20-7 halftime lead.

The Chiefs were driving again by the end of the scoreless third quarter, as Beathard was picked off by safety Jim Kearney, who returned the ball to his own 45. McVea began the drive with a fourteen-yard burst off right tackle, then Holmes found a crack and scooted up the middle for twenty-six more. The drive reached the Oiler eleven before petering out, and Stenerud's eighteen-yard chip shot extended the Kansas City lead to 23-7 with 13:03 remaining in the game.

The Chiefs closed out the scoring after the Oilers failed to convert on fourth down the next time they had the ball. They started on their own 49, and Dawson immediately connected with tight end Fred Arbanas for sixteen yards and a first down. Later in the drive, Garrett bolted up the middle for sixteen yards and another first down, and Holmes put the Christmas bow on top by galloping into the end zone off right tackle from ten yards out. Stenerud added one last extra point, and the final score was established: Chiefs 30, Oilers 7.

Garrett was named the MVP of the game by NBC Television after gaining 110 yards on fifteen carries with two to

 

[Garrett Garlits]

.....two touchdowns.

The Chiefs will meet the winner of yesterday's Raiders-Jets game in next week's AFL Championship Game, which will definitely be played at Municipal Stadium.

Next: The Raiders meet the Jets at Shea.

Thoughts?

 

[Garrett Garlits]

Now it's time for the second AFL semifinal from Shea Stadium in New York. The temperature at game time is 33 degrees, with clear skies and a northwest wind at 16 MPH.

The first quarter was scoreless. The defensive struggle continued until late in the second quarter, when the Oakland offense finally got untracked. Starting at their own 38, they slowly picked their way downfield, the only play that gained over ten yards being a 25-yard pass from quarterback Daryle Lamonica to wideout Warren Wells. The drive eventually reached the Jets five, but could go no farther. It was up to George Blanda to convert a twelve-yard field goal to get his team on the board before halftime, and he did. Our halftime score was thus Raiders 3, Jets 0.

The Raiders increased their lead early in the third period when they recovered a fumble from Jets star runner Matt Snell. It took just three plays for them to hit paydirt, the third being a pitch to running back Charlie Smith, who galloped twenty-five yards into the end zone. Blanda provided the extra point, and after three quarters, the touchdown-underdog Raiders led the Jets 10-0.

Early in the final quarter, the Jets finally caught a break when Mike Battie returned a punt out to their 42-yard line. From there, quarterback Joe Namath could finally operate, and he completed a 24-yard strike to favorite target Don Maynard that gave the Jets a first down at the Oakland 34. They only gained six yards over the rest of the drive, but Jim Turner converted a 35-yard field goal attempt to cut the Oakland lead to 10-3 with 10:08 remaining in the game.

The next time they had the ball, the Jets took six and a half minutes to score the game-tying touchdown. Namath hit two key passes: one of fifteen yards to tight end Pete Lammons and one of eighteen yards to wideout George Sauer. The big run on the drive was a seventeen-yard sprint by Bill Mathis that gave the Jets a first and goal at the Raider 9. On the very next play, Namath somehow bought time with his sore knees until Lammons came free in the back of the end zone, then hit him with a bullet of a pass for the tying touchdown. One Turner extra point later, the game was tied at ten. It would remain so throughout the rest or regulation and the first overtime. Each team had a chance at the game-winning field goal in the extra session, but Blanda's attempt from 33 yards went wide right, as did Turner's from 39 yards out.

The Raiders made their fatal mistake on their first play from scrimmage in the second overtime, as Lamonica's pass intended for Wells was intercepted by cornerback Cornell Gordon, who returned it to the Raider 36. It took just four plays for the Jets to set up the winning touchdown, the longest of which was a fourteen-yard scamper up the middle on a draw play by running back Emerson Boozer. The winning score came when Mathis took a handoff at the ten and zoomed around the left side on a sweep into the end zone. After seventy-eight minutes and forty-six seconds of playing time, the Jets had a classic 16-10 win and a date in Kansas City the following Sunday to decide the AFL Championship and a possible return trip to the Super Bowl.

Next: To be determined.

Thoughts?

 

[Garrett Garlits]

Next, I'm going to cover the rest of the Playoff Bowl era in the NFL from 1960-1965. We begin with 1960 in the East:

Cleveland Browns: 9-3 (+1)
Philadelphia Eagles: 8-4 (-2)
St. Louis Cardinals: 8-4 (+2)
New York Giants: 6-6 (0)
Pittsburgh Steelers: 5-7 (0)
Washington Redskins: 3-9 (+2)

There's a major shakeup at the top, as the Eagles drop a pair of games while the Browns add one, allowing the Browns to take the Eastern crown away. The Eagles are forced to settle for a second-place tie with the resurgent Redbirds, who pick up a pair to force the tie. Second place means a little something this year because the second-place teams in each division earn a trip to the new Playoff Bowl, to be played at the Orange Bowl in Miami. As for the rest of the division, the Giants and Steelers both stay put, while the last-place Redskins add a pair.

We go to the expected win totals to break the tie for second, and the Eagles take it 7.8 to 7.6, which means they're headed for Miami.

Now to the West:

Green Bay Packers: 9-3 (+1)
Detroit Lions: 7-5 (0)
Baltimore Colts: 7-5 (+1)
San Francisco 49ers: 6-6 (-1)
Los Angeles Rams: 5-7 (+1)
Chicago Bears: 3-9 (-2)
Dallas Cowboys: 2-10 (+2)

The Pack adds a game to help it retain the Western title. Meanwhile, the Colts add a game to force a second-place tie with the Lions, who stay where they are. The Niners drop a game and fall to fourth, while the Rams add one and move up to fifth. The Bears fall to sixth by dropping a pair, while the expansion Cowboys avoid a winless season, but not the basement.

We go to the expected win totals to break the tie for second, and the Colts prevail 7.4 to 6.8. That means that the Eagles will take on the Colts in Miami on January 7, while the Packers and Browns will meet for the NFL championship on December 26 at Municipal Stadium in Cleveland.

Next: We move on to 1961 in the NFL. The 1960 sims will be run at a later date.

Thoughts?

 

[Garrett Garlits]

Now let's look at 1961 in the NFL. We begin in the East:

New York Giants: 11-3 (+1)
Philadelphia Eagles: 9-5 (-1)
Cleveland Browns: 8-6 (0)
St. Louis Cardinals: 7-7 (0)
Pittsburgh Steelers: 7-7 (+1)
Dallas Cowboys: 3-11 (-1)
Washington Redskins: 2-12 (+1)

The Giants add one and the Eagles drop one, which allow the G-Men to take the division title going away. The defending champion Browns freeze and finish third, while the Steelers gain a game to force a fourth-place tie with the Cards. The Boys continue their slow climb toward respectability with a one-game improvement over last year, while the Skins finish dead last despite a one-game uptick.

We go to the expected win totals to break the tie for fourth, and it goes to the Redbirds, 7.4 to 7.2.

Now to the West:

Green Bay Packers: 11-3 (0)
San Francisco 49ers: 9-5 (+2)
Chicago Bears: 8-6 (0)
Detroit Lions: 7-7 (-1)
Baltimore Colts: 7-7 (-1)
Los Angeles Rams: 5-9 (+1)
Minnesota Vikings: 4-10 (+1)

The Pack stays where they are to take the division title, but there's a shakeup underneath, as the Niners improve by a pair and move up from fifth to second and a Playoff Bowl date with the Eagles on January 6 at the Orange Bowl. The Bears freeze in third, while one-game drops by the Lions and Colts mean that they tie for fourth instead of second. Both the Rams and the expansion Vikings manage one-game improvements to make their final records more respectable.

We go to the expected win totals to break the tie for fourth, and the Lions prevail with ease, 7.4 to 6.9.

As previously stated, the Eagles and Niners will square off in the Playoff Bowl at Miami's Orange Bowl on January 6.

The NFL Championship Game took place on New Year's Eve at New City Stadium (now Lambeau Field) in Green Bay, and the Pack shut out the Giants 37-0 to claim their eighth NFL title so far in this timeline, with 1960 still to be contested. This means that they're tied with their archrivals the Bears for most titles won in NFL history to the moment.

Next: To be determined.

Thoughts?

 

[Garrett Garlits]

Now it's time for the 1968 Playoff Bowl from the Orange Bowl in Miami. Game time temperature is 60 degrees, with winds out of the north-northwest at 15 MPH and dense fog.

The first half was a scoreless defensive struggle. The Cowboys scored first late in the third period. The two biggest plays on the drive were an eleven-yard swing pass from quarterback Don Meredith to reserve halfback Craig Baynham and a 23-yard dash around right end on a pitch by halfback Don Perkins that gave the Boys a first and goal at the Green Bay 8. After an encroachment penalty left the Boys with third and goal at the fourteen, Dandy Don found his favorite target, "Bullet" Bob Hayes, in the back of the end zone and fired it to him for the touchdown. Frank Clarke's extra point was good, and with 4:47 left in the third, the Cowboys led 7-0.

The Pack answered immediately. Fullback Jim Grabowski led the way, carrying twice for 45 yards. First, he took a pitch from quarterback Bart Starr and swung around the right side for thirty-two yards and a first down at the Dallas 37. One play later, he barged up the middle for thirteen yards and another first down at the 22. The drive only produced four more yards after that, but Mike Mercer connected on a 25-yard field goal to put the Packers on the board. At the end of three, our score is Cowboys 7, Packers 3.

Early in the fourth, the Pack set themselves up to score again when Willie Wood returned a punt all the way to the Dallas 35. It took them just three plays to cash in thanks to fullback Donny Anderson, who took the ball on a simple dive play up the middle and, finding no resistance from the Not-Quite Doomsday Yet defense, rumbled 26 yards for the go-ahead touchdown. Mercer added the extra point, and with 11:59 remaining in the game, the Packers had taken a 10-7 lead.

The Pack added the coup de grace on the very next Cowboy possession when future Hall of Famer Willie Davis recovered Cowboy running back Walt Garrison's fumble at the Packer 46. The Boys managed to hold the first two Packer plays to no gain, but on third down Starr flipped the ball to Anderson in the flat. Three broken tackles later, Anderson was in the end zone for the second time, and the Packers had salted away their third straight postseason win over the Cowboys. One last Mercer extra point established the final score: Green Bay 17, Dallas 7.

Anderson was named player of the game by CBS Television. He gained 55 yards on fourteen carries with a touchdown, caught three passes for 73 yards and another touchdown, and also averaged forty yards a punt in five tries, Not a bad all-around day's work.

Next: 1962 in the NFL.

Thoughts?

 

[DTF955Baseballfan]

I wonder what this will do to Vince Lombardi's legacy. True, it wasn't an NFL title, let alone a Super Bowl, but the Packers being back in the playoffs again a year after he leaves will demonstrate that this was a simply amazing team. Will it be thought that he was still a key part> Probably, after all, they didn't win it like when he was there. Still, his nose for talent will be seen as just as important if not more so than his coaching ability because he put that team together and they were so great they were able to keep it going another year even once he retired.

 

[Garrett Garlits]

He was still a key part, DTF. He was the general manager. He didn't go to Washington until '69.

 

[DTF955Baseballfan]

Oh, okay, thanks, I was thinking he had left for Washington earlier.

 

[Garrett Garlits]

It's time now for the 1960 Playoff Bowl from the Orange Bowl in Miami. Game time temperature is 75 degrees with a south-southeast wind at 8 MPH.

The Colts opened the scoring midway through the first quarter. The big play of the drive was a screen pass from quarterback Johnny Unitas to running back/flanker Lenny Moore that went for 41 yards and a first down at the Eagle 27. A Unitas scramble for ten yards and a first down set up the scoring play, which was a ten-yard pass from Unitas to running back Alex Hawkins. Steve Myhra added the extra point, and after one quarter the Colts led the Eagles 7-0.

The Eagles answered early in the second quarter. Quarterback Norm Van Brocklin, who had already been named the head coach of the expansion Minnesota Vikings and was thus playing his last game, completed three big passes on this drive: a 28-yarder to tight end Bobby Walston, a fifteen-yarder to split end Pete Retzlaff, and a thirteen-yarder to flanker Tommy McDonald that gave the Eagles a first and goal at the Baltimore 7. Three more plays could only move the ball four more yards, however, and the Eagles had to settle for Walston's ten-yard field goal that made the score 7-3 Colts with exactly eight minutes remaining in the first half.

The Colts countered immediately with a field goal of their own. Hawkins' 21-yard burst got them out of a second and seventeen hole on their own twelve, and Unitas completed passes of fourteen yards to Moore and twenty-one yards to wideout Raymond Berry. The drive stalled at the Philly nine, but Myhra hit a sixteen-yard field goal to reestablish the Colts' seven-point lead at 10-3 with 1:36 left until halftime.

A costly mistake by Baltimore allowed the Eagles to get an unexpected field goal just before halftime, in the form of a facemask penalty that gave the Eagles a first down at their own 48. Immediately, Van Brocklin and McDonald hooked up for seventeen yards and a first down at the Baltimore 35. The Dutchman then hit Walston for twenty yards and another first down. The drive eventually reached the ten; at that point Eagles coach Buck Shaw decided to settle for a chip-shot field goal, and Walston converted from seventeen yards out on the final play of the half. Our halftime score: Baltimore 10, Philadelphia 6.

The third quarter was scoreless, but toward the end of it Baltimore cornerback Bobby Boyd picked off a Van Brocklin pass intended for McDonald. The Colts then stormed downfield for what turned out to be the clinching touchdown, aided by Unitas completions of seventeen yards to Berry and twenty-three yards to reserve receiver Art DeCarlo. Moore supplied the finisher when he pounded his way up the middle and into the end zone from twenty-six yards out for the touchdown. Myhra ;added the extra point, and the Colts wrapped up the victory, 17-6.

Moore was named the MVP by CBS Television; he carried eight times for 63 yards and a touchdown and also caught two passes for 55 yards.

Next: To be determined.

Thoughts?

 

[Garrett Garlits]

Now it's time for the 1961 Playoff Bowl from the Orange Bowl in Miami. Game time temperature is 80 degrees with a south-southwest wind of 20 MPH.

The Niners opened the scoring with a field goal drive that took up nearly twelve minutes of the first quarter. Most of it was done on the ground, but quarterback John Brodie also completed passes of ten yards to both split end Aaron Thomas and tight end Monte Stickles, plus a seventeen-yarder to right halfback R.C. Owens. The drive stalled at the Eagle 3, which left kicker Tommy Davis to convert a ten-yard field goal that put the Niners up 3-0 after one quarter of play.

 

[Garrett Garlits]

I have trouble getting a cursor at times, so it may take three or four posts for me to run a sim at the moment. My humblest apologies.

The Niners added to their lead early in the second quarter. Brodie hit passes of thirteen yards to both Stickles and reserve split end Clyde Conner, and running back J.D. Smith's 26-yard scamper took them across midfield. Eventually, fullback C.R. Roberts pounded into the end zone from twenty-one yards out, and after Davis added the extra point the Niners had a 10-0 halftime lead.

 

[Garrett Garlits]

The Niners added to their lead with a third-quarter field goal. Brodie hit the big plays through the air once again, finding Owens for twelve yards, Conner for eleven, and Stickles for fifteen. The drive stalled at the Eagle 21, but Davis connected from 28 yards out to extend the San Francisco lead to 13-0 through three quarters.

 

[Garrett Garlits]

The Niners added to their lead early in the fourth. An Abe Woodson punt return gave the Niners excellent field possession at the Philly 44, and from there Brodie connected with Thomas for 28 yards and a first down at the Eagle 16. A sack helped to kill the drive, but Davis eventually hit a 21-yard field goal to put the Niners up 16-0 with exactly eleven minutes remaining in the game.

The Eagles spent most of the rest of the final period driving for a field goal that would end the Frisco shutout bid. Ted Dean, who had mostly been a punt returner previously, picked up 23 yards on a draw play, and Timmy "Spearchucker" Brown, who had mostly been a kickoff returner, gained nineteen on another. Halfback Billy Ray Barnes picked his way off right tackle for ten yards and a first down at the Niner 21, but the drive would only gain another four yards. Bobby Walston's 24-yard field goal put the Eagles on the board, but the Niners still prevailed, 16-3.

Smith was named Player of the Game by CBS Television after gaining 90 yards on nineteen carries.

Next: To be determined.

Thoughts?

 

[Garrett Garlits]

Now it's time to look at 1962 in the NFL. We begin in the East:

New York Giants: 10-4 (-2)
Cleveland Browns: 8-6 (+1)
ffffffDallas Cowboys: 7-7 (+2)
Pittsburgh Steelers: 6-8 (-3)
Washington Redskins: 5-9 (0)
St. Louis Cardinals: 5-9 (+1)
Philadelphia Eagles: 5-9 (+2)

The Giants retain the division crown despite a two-game drop; from there, things get a bit weird. First, the Steelers take a three-game nosedive that sees them drop from second to fourth. In their place, the Browns improve by one to secure a trip to the Playoff Bowl, while the Boys add two to reach the .500 mark for the first time. At the bottom, the Cards and Eagles improve by one and two resepectively to

 

[Garrett Garlits]

…...forge a three-way tie for fifth. This is a huge letdown for the Eagles, who have represented the East in the Playoff Bowl the previous two seasons.

We go to the expected win totals to determine fifth, sixth, and seventh. The Redskins' 5.3 earns them fifth place, but the Cards and Eagles are still tied for sixth at 5.1. The Cards won both games between the two teams, so they end up sixth and the Eagles are relegated to the basement.

Now to the West:

Green Bay Packers: 13-1 (0)
Detroit Lions: 11-3 (0)
Chicago Bears: 8-6 (-1)
Baltimore Colts: 7-7 (0)
San Francisco 49ers: 6-8 (0)
Los Angeles Rams: 4-10 (+3)
Minnesota Vikings: 3-11 (+1)

The Pack and Lions each stay where they are, which means that the Pack are champions of the West and the Lions are headed to the Playoff Bowl to take on the Browns. The Bears drop a game, but remain in third, while the Colts and Niners each freeze in place. The biggest improvement comes from the Rams, and it's enough for them to leapfrog the Vikings (who also improve by a game) and finish sixth.

The Lions and Browns will meet at the Orange Bowl in Miami on January 6.

The NFL Championship Game took place at Yankee Stadium in New York on New Year's Eve, and for the second year in a row the Packers defeated the Giants, this time by a score of 16-7. This marks the second championship in a row for the Packers (with 1960 still to be contested) and the ninth that we've covered overall in franchise history, one more than their archrivals the Bears.

Next: To be determined.

Thoughts?

 

[Garrett Garlits]

I was going to run a sim for the 1969 AFL Championship Game between the Jets and Chiefs in Kansas City, but for some reason the computer's being persnickety. So, with your kind permission, I'm going to use the result of their real-life divisional playoff game at Shea Stadium, which was that the Chiefs beat the Jets 13-6. They thus moved on to Super Bowl IV the following week in New Orleans, where they handily beat the Vikings 23-7 to give the AFL its second undisputed world championship in its final game ever.

Next: To be determined.

Thoughts?

 

[DTF955Baseballfan]

Tht sounds reasonable and is the likely outcome since it was that way in real life. It makes it easier for you, too. I hope your recovery is going well.