The Pythagorean NFL

[Garrett Garlits]

Here's an update on the sim situation:

I tried to run a sim with WhatIf purely as practice, and it reset itself after only a few minutes, which wiped out the sim. I tried a couple of more times, and the same thing happened. It doesn't happen on my old desktop, only on my new laptop that I'm using during my recovery.

So I have two choices: I can do as many years as I can which don't require sims, which figure to be fewer and farther between as more playoff teams are added. or I can put this thread in cold storage and take a break from the board (since I have no interest in doing non-sports threads at this time) until I'm back on my old desktop in (hopefully) a few weeks. Right now, I'm leaning toward the latter just so I have as little stress as possible as I continue to recover. If you don't see this thread again, you'll know that WhatIf does the same thing on my desktop.

At any rate, thanks for reading what I've written, and take care!

 

[Garrett Garlits]

Here's the summary for the 1948 AAFC Western Division Playoff Game. Game time temperature is 40 degrees; there's no wind or precipitation information available:

There was no scoring in the game until late in the second quarter. when the Browns went downfield on the pinpoint passing of Otto Graham. a 26-yard pass to Horace Gillom moved the Browns across midfield, and. a third and five from the Niner 25 was converted on a diving catch by Mac Speedie for sixteen, which gave the Browns a first and goal at the Frisco nine, Graham once again hit Speedie in the left corner of the end zone for the game's first touchdown, and the Browns took a 7-0 lead to the locker room at halftime.

The Niners tied the game after Paul Crowe intercepted Graham on Cleveland's first possession of the third quarter. The return gave the Niners the ball at the Cleveland 33, and they converted a third at elven when Joe Perry barged up the middle for nineteen yards and a first down at the Browns 15. A short pass that lost a yard and an eight-yard sack set up third and nineteen from the Browns 24, from where quarterback Frankie Albert averted a fierce Cleveland rush and fiound Hall, who caught the ball at the three, broke a tackle, and got into the end zone for the touchdown. The extra point was good, and through three quarters, the game was tied at seven.

The Niners kept up the momentum early in the final period, as Crowe picked off Graham for the second time on the second play of the period. Crowe's return set up the Niners at the Cleveland 42, and a 21-yard pass from Albert to Beals two plays later gave the Niners a first and ten at the twenty. The drive stalled soon after, but Vetrano hit a 25-yard field goal to give the visitors a 10-7 lead with 10:54 left in regulation.

The Browns spent the next seven minutes crafting a tying field goal drive. The key plays were an eighteen-yard gallop by Marion Motley, a fourteen-yard pass from Graham to Speedie (who made a tremendous diving catch), and an eleven-yard run by Jones. The drive stalled at the Browns' twelve, but Lou Groza punched a nineteen-yard field goal through the uprights with 3:40 remaining to tie the game at ten. The Niners missed a possible game-winning field goal from forty-four yards out in the final two minutes, and the fourth quarter ended in a tie, which meant that we would have the first overtime in the history of pro football.

The overtime was all Cleveland, as the Browns won the toss

 

[Garrett Garlits]

.........took the kickoff, and went straight downfield. Two big completions, one to Gillom for eleven yards and one to Boedecker for twenty, put the Browns in field goal range, and Groze came through from twenty-four yards out with 9:13 left in overtime to give the Browns a 13-10 win. The Browns will play the Buffalo Bills in the AAFC Championship Game next Sunday right here at Municipal Stadium.

Hall is Forrest Hall, Vetrano is Joe Vetrano, Beals is Alyn Beals, and Boedecker is Bill Boedecker.

The Browns went on to annihilate the Bills 49-7 the following week to win their third straight AAFC championship.

There we are, ladies and gentlemen. A bit quick and dirty, but better than nothing!

Next: We finish the AAFC by looking at 1949.

Thoughts?

 

[DTF955Baseballfan]

Good luck in your recovery. I know there aren't a lot of sports ones, I could start one baseball one soon depending on how busy things get. So there could be some.

If you feel like you have to rest for a while that's okay. I know how difficult it is to run those sims and it does seem like that site makes it tougher than it should be. Especially when you want to do so many.

 

[Garrett Garlits]

Thanks for the kind words, DTF. I managed to complete the sim, and it wasn't quite what I wanted, but I have to learn how to run them on this machine eventually, so for a first effort it wasn't bad. Once we get to the Super Bowl era, I intend to be strong enough that I can pull out all the stops.

Looking forward to your baseball timeline!

 

[Colonel Zoidberg]

Good luck in your recovery. I know there aren't a lot of sports ones, I could start one baseball one soon depending on how busy things get. So there could be some.

If you feel like you have to rest for a while that's okay. I know how difficult it is to run those sims and it does seem like that site makes it tougher than it should be. Especially when you want to do so many.

What’s your idea for one?

 

[DTF955Baseballfan]

What’s your idea for one?

I have something in the works where Babe Ruth is sold to the White Sox as almost happened for Joe Jackson, but the reason is because Jackson is injured in so Comiskey throws in more money which is what the Red Sox owner really wanted. It also keeps Jackson from being banned for throwing the World Series since he isn't in the World Series. I am playing with adding up to something where Ty Cobb was traded to the Yankees and that almost happened also in our history, it might be combined with that because butterflies mean that the Yankees are a little less of a draw, which without Ruth they've would be but could probably recover and still be the Giants tenants for a couple of years. But with some Scandal involving Cobb - note that that guy he ran into the stands to clobber was in New York - it might be just enough to get the Giants to evict them.

 

[Garrett Garlits]

Now let's look at the final year of the AAFC, 1949:

Cleveland Browns: 10-2 (+1)
San Francisco 49ers: 10-2 (+1)
New York Yankees: 6-6 (-2)
Buffalo Bills: 5-7 (0)
Los Angeles Dons: 4-8 (0)
Chicago Hornets: 3-9 (-1)
Baltimore Colts: 2-10 (+1)

We have a tie at the top between the Browns and Niners, as each team improves by a game. In this new one-division format, both teams will make the playoffs, but we'll still break the tie to find out who has home-field advantage. The Yankees grab the third playoff spot despite a two-game drop, and the Bills become the first pro football team ever to make the playoffs despite a losing record, grabbing the final berth at 5-7. The Dons stay where they are, the Hornets drop a game, and the Colts, who will join the Browns and Niners in the NFL next year, gain a game but remain in the cellar.

We go to the expected win totals to break the tie for first, and the Browns come out on top, 10.0 to 9.7.

The divisional playoffs took place on December 4, and saw the Browns turn back the Bills 31-21 at Municipal Stadium while the Niners topped the Yankees 17-7 at Kezar Stadium in San Francisco. The title game was on December 11 in Cleveland, and the Browns became the only champions the AAFC ever knew, winning their fourth consecutive title by beating the Niners 21-7.

Next: We begin our look at the pre-Super Bowl AFL with its first year, 1960.

Thoughts?

 

[Nivek]

but the reason is because Jackson is injured in so Comiskey throws in more money which is what the Red Sox owner really wanted. It also keeps Jackson from being banned for throwing the World Series since he isn't in the World Series.

Jackson was one, all the team was tired Comiskey being a cheapstake, with Ruth that might either divided the team more or those could leave...having not series at all and thus not scandal. Yeah Shoeless Joe make a crime but were other non judge criminals there too.

. But with some Scandal involving Cobb - note that that guy he ran into the stands to clobber was in New York - it might be just enough to get the Giants to evict them.

A fight goes wrong?

 

[DTF955Baseballfan]

Jackson was one, all the team was tired Comiskey being a cheapstake, with Ruth that might either divided the team more or those could leave...having not series at all and thus not scandal. Yeah Shoeless Joe make a crime but were other non judge criminals there too.

A fight goes wrong?

Not only fight going wrong but... well, why spoil it? Let's just say how Chase was also on the Highlanders at that time and if Cobb were traded there as could have happened... gambling in baseball might wind up getting taken care of earlier because of what ensues.

 

[Garrett Garlits]

Now let's begin our look at the pre-Super Bowl AFL with the league's first year, 1960. We begin in the East:

Houston Oilers: 9-5 (-1)
New York Titans: 7-7 (0)
Buffalo Bills: 7-7 (+2)
Boston Patriots: 5-9 (0)

The Oilers drop a game, but still take the division by two over the Titans and Bills, who improve by a pair to forge a tie for second. The Pats stay where they are and finish last. We go to the expected win totals to settle the tie for second, and the Bills edge the Titans 6.8 to 6.6 to take it.

Now to the West:

Dallas Texans: 10-4 (+2)
Los Angeles Chargers: 8-6 (-2)
Oakland Raiders: 5-9 (-1)
Denver Broncos: 5-9 (+1)

We have a title change right off the bat, as the Bolts drop a pair while the Texans gain a pair to take the division and set up an all-Texas championship game. We also end up with a tie for third, as the Raiders drop a game while the Broncos improve by one. We go to the expected win totals to settle the tie for third, and the Raiders top the Broncos 5.4 to 5.1 to claim the spot.

The Texans and Oilers will thus meet in the first AFL Championship Game on January 1, 1961. A coin flip has determined that the game will be played at Jeppesen Stadium in Houston.

Next: We'll tackle the '60 championship a bit later, but for now it's on to 1961.

Thoughts?

 

[Colonel Zoidberg]

Jackson was one, all the team was tired Comiskey being a cheapstake, with Ruth that might either divided the team more or those could leave...having not series at all and thus not scandal. Yeah Shoeless Joe make a crime but were other non judge criminals there too.

The team rebelled against Comiskey for being a cheap asshole and not paying competitive salaries - the best White Sox made half of what the best players in the rest of MLB made. He wouldn’t even spring for laundry on a regular basis and made his players get by with $1 less per day for meal allowances (probably $12 less today - doesn’t seem like much until you remember they were paid much less handsomely than today.)

I suggested another way the team could have gotten back at Comiskey without resorting to illegal gambling - a union. Possibly a long shot in 1919 but better than breaking the law and throwing the Series.

Not only fight going wrong but... well, why spoil it? Let's just say how Chase was also on the Highlanders at that time and if Cobb were traded there as could have happened... gambling in baseball might wind up getting taken care of earlier because of what ensues.

I’m picturing something akin to the Malice at the Palace with Ty Cobb becoming like Ron Artest only worse.

 

[Nivek]

I suggested another way the team could have gotten back at Comiskey without resorting to illegal gambling - a union. Possibly a long shot in 1919 but better than breaking the law and throwing the Series.

Or throwing the series as a strike...that is a catch-22 nobody can win....

 

[DTF955Baseballfan]

I’m picturing something akin to the Malice at the Palace with Ty Cobb becoming like Ron Artest only worse.

You read my mind.

 

[Garrett Garlits]

Now let's look at 1961. We begin in the East:

Houston Oilers: 12-2 (+2)
Boston Patriots: 9-5 (0)
Buffalo Bills: 6-8 (0)
New York Titans: 5-9 (-2)

The Oilers improve by two to make their title defense more impressive, while the vastly improved Pats remain where they are. The Bills move up to third with an unchanged record because of the Titans' two-game slide into the basement.

Now to the West:

San Diego Chargers: 11-3 (-1)
Dallas Texans: 7-7 (+1)
Denver Broncos: 3-11 (0)
Oakland Raiders: 2-12 (0)

The newly-relocated Chargers drop a game, but still romp by four over the defending champion Texans, who pick up a game and finish right at .500. Meanwhile, neither the Broncos nor the Raiders move, each remaining mired in their own stink. Fortunately for each franchise, much better days lay not too far ahead.

This year's Championship Game took place on Christmas Eve at San Diego's Balboa Stadium, and the Oilers prevailed over the Chargers in a 10-3 defensive struggle.

Next: We look at 1962.

Thoughts?

 

[Garrett Garlits]

Now let's look at 1962. We begin in the East:

Houston Oilers: 10-4 (-1)
Boston Patriots: 8-6 1)
Buffalo Bills: 8-6 (+1)
New York Titans: 4-10 (-1)

The Oilers drop a game, but maintain their two-game victory over the Pats and Bills, who gain a game to forge a tie for second. From there it's four games back to the last-place Titans, who also drop a game. We go to the expected win totals to settle the tie for second, and the Pats top the Bills 8.3 to 8.0 to finish second for the second consecutive year.

Now to the West:

Dallas Texans: 11-3 (0)
Denver Broncos: 8-6 (+1)
San Diego Chargers: 5-9 (+1)
Oakland Raiders: 3-11 (+2)

The Texans stay exactly where they are to take their second division title in three years, but the positive shock of the year comes from Denver, where the Broncos improve by five games from last year to finish second. But each positive must have its negative, and in this case that's the Chargers, who fall from division champion to 5-9 and third place. The Raiders shock no one by finishing last, but their two-game improvement s definitely something for new coach Al Davis to hang his hat on for 1963.

This year's Championship Game was played at Houston's Jeppesen Stadium on December 23, and was the infamous "We'll kick to the clock" game, where the Texans' Abner Haynes butchered the coin toss prior to the start of the first overtime. It didn't end up costing the Texans, though. as they defeated the Oilers 20-17 in double overtime to win the championship in their final game as the Texans. They would move to Kansas City in time for the 1963 season and become known as the Chiefs.

Next: We look at 1963.

Thoughts?

 

[Garrett Garlits]

Now let's look at 1963. We begin in the East:

Boston Patriots: 9-5 (+2)
Buffalo Bills: 7-7 (0)
Houston Oilers: 5-9 (-1)
New York Jets: 4-10 (-1)

After two straight second-place finishes, the Pats finally take the East thanks to a two-game improvement that breaks their real-life tie with the Bills. Speaking of whom, they remain frozen in second, while the Oilers' reign as three-time Eastern champs comes to a crashing halt at 5-9 and third place. A new name doesn't help the Jets, who not only finish last but drop a game doing it.

Now to the West:

San Diego Chargers: 10-4 (-1)
Oakland Raiders: 9-5 (-1)
Kansas City Chiefs: 9-5 (+4)
Denver Broncos: 4-10 (+2)

This is close to the AFL/AFC West of legend. The Bolts drop a game, but still survive a dogfight with the Raiders and Chiefs to take the title by a game. The Chiefs welcome themselves to Kansas City with a miraculous four-game improvement, while the Pride and Poise era starts in Oakland as Al Davis leads the Raiders to a 9-5 mark and a tie with the Chiefs for second. Even the Broncos, who slide back to the basement after last year's surprising second-place finish, improve by two games to give themselves hope for the future.

We go to the expected win totals to break the tie for second, and the Chiefs edge the Raiders 9.2 to 9.0 to complete their miraculous improvement.

This year's Championship Game took place on December 29 at Balboa Stadium, and the homestanding Chargers destroyed the Patriots 51-10 to win their first AFL championship.

Next: We move on to 1964.

Thoughts?

 

[DTF955Baseballfan]

I would imagine the more teams there are in a division, the harder it is to have any real changes. I also suspected, though, that the number of different titlists would be less in the defense-minded early days of the NFL versus the pass-happy (compared to the NFL anyway) higherscoring AAFL, but we haven't seen as much change here. I thought there would be more more orf a chance of change becasue you'd get a lot more 35-31 games then 20-17, and therefore a lot more chance for a game to be 38-10 in the AFL than in the NFL and thus skew the point differential.

 

[Garrett Garlits]

I've been surprised, too. It's been good for me in that I can keep working on this thread without having to run long sims in my current state of health, but I thought we'd get a lot more changes in all the leagues. Where the changes will probably come is when we get to the seeded era in 1975, when we not only have to deal with who makes the playoffs but who has home field advantage in each game. (By the way, I do plan to run sims of matchups that happened n real life if the home field advantage is switched; it's the only way I'll touch a real-life matchup.)

By the way, I'm thinking about doing the last four years of the AFL now instead of waiting to do them in the same posts as the NFL simply to keep the entire history of the league together. The AFL was still very much a separate league until the merger took effect in 1970, even with the Super Bowl and the common draft, which isn't the case in baseball where the National and American Leagues have always been more like two halves of the same whole, rules differences aside.

 

[Garrett Garlits]

Now we move on to 1964. We begin in the East:

Buffalo Bills: 11-3 (-1)
Boston Patriots: 9-5 (-1),
New York Jets: 6-8 (+1)
Houston Oilers: 6-8 (+2)

The Bills unseat the Pats as kings of the East despite dropping a game. The Pats drop one as well, but still hold on to second. The Jets and Oilers both improve enough to forge a tie for third; the Jets tick up by one, while the Oilers add a pair. We go to the expected win total to settle the tie for third, and it goes to the Jets by a tenth of a point, 6.0 to 5.9.

Now to the West:

Kansas City Chiefs: 9-5 (+2)
San Diego Chargers: 8-6 (0)
Oakland Raiders: 6-8 (+1)
Denver Broncos: 3-11 (+1)

The Chiefs improve by a pair to unseat the Chargers and take their third division crown overall and their first in Kansas City. The Chargers hold on to second, while the Raiders drop three games from last year and finish a disappointing third. The Broncos stay in the basement despite their one-game improvement, and their second-place finish from two years ago seems like a distant memory.

The Chiefs and Bills will meet in the AFL Championship Game on Saturday, December 26. It's the Eastern champion's turn to have home field advantage, so the game will be at Buffalo's War Memorial Stadium.

Next: We'll cover the '64 Championship Game shortly, but for now it's on to 1965.

Thoughts?