The Pythagorean NFL

[Garrett Garlits]

Now it's time for the second 1997 NFC Wild Card Game from the Silverdome in Pontiac, Michigan:

The Redskins scored first after taking the opening kickoff. Running back Stephen Davis popped off left tackle for eleven yards, and the play earned five more yards thanks to a facemask call against the Lions. Gus Frerotte's twenty-seven yard pass to backup wide receiver Albert Connell gave the Skins a first down at the Detroit twenty-two, and one play later Davis took it to the house with a twenty-one yard catch-and-run off of a screen pass. Scott Blanton added the extra point, and after one quarter the visitors had a 7-0 lead.

The Lions evened things up midway through quarter number two. Scott Mitchell hit Johnnie Morton for fifteen yards and Herman Moore for nineteen, and from the Skins twenty-one backup running back Ron Rivers found a hole in the middle of the Washinton defense and galloped through it and into the end zone for the score. Jason Hanson's extra point meant that we were tied at seven at the half.

The Skins took the lead with a third-quarter touchdown. Bryan Mitchell's punt return set up the offense at the Lions' forty-two, and the drive's big play was a thirty-two yard catch-and-run by reserve wide receiver Leslie Shepherd. The touchdown came from twelve yards out, when Frerotte found veteran receiver Henry Ellard for the score. Blanton added the extra point, and after three quarters it was Skins 14, Lions 7.

The visitors added a field goal early in the final period. Frerotte and Shepherd hooked up again for twenty-two yards, and the running game contributed gains of twelve yards off the right side by Davis and twenty yards, again off the right side, by Terry Allen. The drive stalled at the Detroit twenty-two, but Blanton was good from thirty-nine yards out to increase the Skins lead to 17-7 with a little over ten and a half minutes remaining.

The Skins added another field goal o their next possession, thanks in large part to Davis' thirty-three yard gain on a draw play that gave the Skins a first down at the Lions' twenty-four. Blanton connected from forty-four yards out three plays later, and with just under eight minutes left the Skins led 20-7.

The Skins added one last touchdown just prior to the two-minute warning, thanks to three key passes from Frerotte: a sixteen-yarder to Shepherd, a seventeen-yarder to Connell, and a sixteen-yarder to tight end Jamie Asher that gave them a first and goal at the Detroit six-inch line. Allen took it in on the next play, and the Skins had wrapped up a thoroughly dominant 27-7 victory.

Davis and Allen shared the front of the Maddencruiser as Fox's MVPs. Davis gained seventy-six yards on ten carries,while Allen added sixty-thee more on twenty carries plus a touchdown. Davis also caught a touchdown pass. Frerotte finished sixteen of twenty-two for 196 yards and a pair of touchdowns, and Shepherd led the receivers with seventy yards on three catches. Connell caught two passes for forty-four yards.

Mitchell had another subpar playoff game for the Lions, finishing twelve of twenty-one for 111 yards and an interception. Moore was his leading receiver with forty-eight yards on five catches, while Morton caught three balls for forty-one yards. The biggest accomplishment for the Skins' defense was stopping Barry Sanders, at least for the most part; he was held to sixty-eight yards on nineteen carries.

The Skins' next stop will be Lambeau Field, where they'll take on the Packers next Sunday in the second NFC Divisional Playoff. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:30 PM Eastern on Fox, and Pat and John will once again call the action. Ron Pitts will join them as sideline reporter.

Next: To be determined.

Thoughts?

 

[Garrett Garlits]

Now it's time for the first 1997 NFC Divisional Playoff from Candlestick Park in San Francisco. Game time temperature is 57 degrees, with mostly cloudy skies and a south wind dusting to 30 MPH.

The Giants scored first after forcing a mistake from the Niners' offense on the game's first play. Running back Garrison Hearst was hit by Giants linebacker Jessie Armstead and fumbled the ball. The recovery was made by fellow linebacker Corey Widmer at the Niners' nineteen-yard line. The New York offense could gain only three yards in three plays, but Brad Daluiso's thirty-three yard field goal gave the G-Men a 3-0 lead just a minute and twenty-six seconds into the game.

The Niners answered with a field goal of their own, as running back Terry Kirby gained seventeen yards on a screen pass, and Steve Young found fellow future Hall of Famer Terrell Owens for a twenty-seven yard gain. The drive eventually stalled at the Giants' twenty-six, but Gary Anderson's forty-three yard field goal tied the game at three after one quarter.

The Niners took the lead with another field goal midway through the second quarter. Iheanyi Uwaezuoke returned a punt to the Niners' forty-four, and Young completed passes of sixteen yards to Owens and fifteen yards to J.J. Stokes. The field goal attempt this time was from thirty-one yards out, and Anderson connected to give the Niners a 6-3 halftime lead.

The Niners added to their lead with another field goal midway through the third quarter. Uwaezuoke's punt return set the offense up at its own forty-nine, and he also caught a pass from Young that was good for twenty-four yards and a first down. William Floyd's fourteen-yard scamper off left tackle gave the Niners a first and ten on the New York twenty, but a holding penalty and a sack by Michael Strahan for a seven-yard loss killed their momentum dead. The home squad had to settle for a forty-six yard attempt from Anderson, which snuck just inside the right upright to extend the Niners' lead to 9-3 with 8:37 left in the third quarter.

The Giants drove as far as their own forty-six on their ensuing possession before a Dave Brown pass was picked off by Merton Hanks, who returned it to the New York thirty-six. Young wasted no time putting the clincher in, as we hear from Dick Stockton:

"First and ten from the Giants' thirty-six following the interception by Hanks. Young with play action, and he's looking downfield. Owens is wide open...……...catch is made at the ten, and it's gonna be a San Francisco touchdown!...……..the big strike to Terrell Owens covers thirty-six yards, and the Niners have some breathing room, as they're up 15-3 with Anderson waiting to try the extra point."

Matt Millen: "The Giants had no answer for this one, Dick. The fake to Floyd works perfectly, and (cornerback Jason) Sehorn is beaten by at least three yards. Owens runs the perfect route, and he gathers the ball in stride and takes it on home."

Anderson added the extra point that closed out the day's scoring. Our final: Niners 16, Giants 3.

Owens was Fox's Player of the Game. He caught three passes for seventy-one yards and the game's only touchdown. The only other Frisco receiver to catch more than one pass was Stokes, who caught two for twenty-three yards. Young finished a disappointing ten of twenty-two for 158 yards and a touchdown, and Hearst led the ground game with fifty-one yards on twenty carries. The Niners only rushed for ninety yards as a team in thirty-seven attempts.

The Giants as a team rushed for 132 yards on thirty-three attempts. Tiki Barber led the way with eighty-five yards on twelve carries, and Charles Way added forty-seven yards on ten carries. On defense, Strahan sacked Young twice, and the team dumped him four times. Unfortunately, the passing game crippled the offense, as Brown could only complete seven of his twenty-three passes for a measly fifty-one yards with an interception. Chris Calloway was responsible for twenty-eight of those yards on his lone reception, and he ended up being Big Blue's leading receiver. Dana Stubblefield's pair of sacks didn't help matters, either. Giants coach Jim Fassel had no choice but to stick with Brown, as bad as he was; Danny Kanell had broken ribs as a result of his block on Way's touchdown run last week and didn't even make the trip.

As for the Niners, their next stop is a familiar one: the NFC Championship Game, where they'll take on the winner of yesterday's game between the Redskins and the Packers. Kickoff next Sunday depends on where the game is; if the Packers win, the game will be at 12:30 PM Eastern. If the Redskins win, the game will be at Candlestick Park, and kickoff will be pushed back to 5PM Eastern to accommodate the Broncos' AFC Championship Game against the Jaguars. Regardless, Fox Sports will bring you all the action, with Pat Summerall and John Madden in the booth and Pam Oliver and Ron Pitts roaming the sidelines.

Next: The Pack entertains the Skins at Lambeau.

Thoughts?

 

[Garrett Garlits]

Now it's time for the second 1997 NFC Divisional Playoff from Lambeau Field in Green Bay. Game time temperature is 28 degrees, with cloudy skies and an east wind at 6 MPH.

The Pack scored first after taking the opening kickoff, with the big play being Brett Favre's eighteen-yard pass to Antonio Freeman. The Pack eventually reached the Washington twenty-nine, where kicker Ryan Longwell booted a forty-six yard field goal that gave his team a 3-0 lead with exactly nine and a half minutes remaining in the first quarter.

The home squad added another field goal before the end of the quarter. Favre hit Freeman for twenty-nine yards and a first down, then found tight end Mark Chmura for twenty-two yards and another. The Pack reached the Skins' eighteen before calling on Longwell, who was good from thirty-five yards out to extend Green Bay's lead to 6-0 after one quarter.

Longwell kicked his third field goal of the day early in the second quarter after Bill Schroeder returned a punt all the way to the Washington forty-one. A twenty-one yard catch-and-run by Chmura put them in range, and Longwell eventually connected from thirty yards out to make this a 9-0 game with 11:30 to play in the first half.

The Pack added field goal number four on their next possession. Robert Brooks ran a reverse for twenty-four yards, and reserve running back Aaron Hayden gained fourteen yards on a draw play. A twenty-four yard strike to freeman gave the Pack a first down at the Washington sixteen, and Longwell was once again good from thirty yards out to make it 12-0 Green Bay with 6:52 to play until halftime.

The Pack finally cracked the end zone just before halftime. Favre and Freeman once again hooked up for ten yards, and running back Dorsey Levens caught a twelve-yard screen pass, then found a hole off left tackle and burst through it for twenty yards and a first down. Levens also provided the touchdown by scooting up the middle and into the end zone from eight yards out. Longwell's extra point gave the masters of the Frozen Tundra a 19-0 halftime advantage.

The Green and Gold added another touchdown midway through the third quarter. A Gus Frerotte pass was intercepted by reserve defensive back Mike Prior, one of his two picks today. Prior's return set Favre and company up at the Skins' thirty-two, and fullback William Henderson's eleven-yard catch-and-run gave them a first down at the sixteen. Lees took care of the rest on the next play by pounding his way up the middle and into the end zone, and Longwell's extra point made it 26-0 Packers with about seven minutes remaining in the third quarter.

Levens put the finishing touches on his day just before the quarter ended when he broke a draw for thirty-seven yards on one play, then barged through a giant crack off left tackle and into the end zone on the next. Here's how Pat Summerall described the touchdown:

"First and ten Packers from the Washington twenty-nine with less than a minute left in the third quarter. It looks like Levens is still in there lined up behind Favre......he gets the call, off the left side and into the secondary! He's loose again, and he's heading straight for the end zone...…...TIUCHDOWN PACKERS!......They're banging the drum at Lambeau Field, as you can hear Todd Rundgren in the background. But these Packers are certainly working all day, John."

Medden: "They oughta change that song, Pat, It doesn't fit this team, this down, or this back. Dorsey Levens is having the game of his life. He's going whichever way he wants to, and the Redskins are very seldom laying a hand on him. They don't get close to him on this play for sure, and they're being embarrassed all the way around."

Longwell added another extra point, and after three quarters it was Green Bay 33, Washington 0.

The Skins finally got on the board late in the final period. Frerotte connected with Leslie Shepherd for seventeen yards and fellow receiver Michael Westbrook for eleven, and Stephen Davis gained eleven more yards with a burst off left tackle. The drive got as far as the Green Bay seventeen before Frerotte was sacked by future Hall of Famer Reggie White for a six-yard loss. That set up a forty-yard field goal attempt for Scott Blanton, and he was good, thus allowing the visitors to avoid the shutout. Our final score: Packers 33, Redskins 3.

Levens earned his place of honor on the front of the Maddencruiser by carrying twenty-three times for 187 yards and three touchdowns. I lost the sim before I could compile the rest of the stats.

The Pack advanced to the NFC Championship Game the next week at Candlestick, and they handled the Niners with ease, 23-10. Levens gained another 114 yards on twenty-seven caries and a touchdown, and Favre finished sixteen of twenty-seven for 222 yards and a touchdown. Freeman caught four passes for 107 yards and a score, and the defense sacked Steve Young four times. Young finished twenty-three of thirty-eight for 250 yards and an interception, with Terrell Owens catching six passes for 100 yards and J.J. Stokes six more for eighty-seven yards. That helped to offset a terrible performance by the running game, which gained only thirty-three yards on sixteen carries.

Two weeks later in San Diego, the Packers and Broncos staged a Super Bowl rematch for the ages, with the Broncos prevailing 31-24. Terrell Davis was named MVP after ripping the Green Bay defense for 157 yards on thirty carries with three touchdowns including the game winner, while Elway only had to throw twenty-two times, completing twelve for 123 yards with an interception. He also scored a rushing touchdown. Shannon Sharpe was his leading receiver with five catches for thirty-eight yards. Favre finished twenty-five of forty-two for 256 yards with three touchdowns and an interception; Freeman was his go-to guy thorough the air with 125 yards on nine catches with two touchdowns. Levens contributed to both modes of offense, leading the ground game with ninety yards on nineteen carries and also catching six passes for fifty-six yards.

Super Bowl XXXII was significant for another reason, as it marked the end of the thirty-eight year partnership between NBC and the AFL/AFC. The Peacock would return to the NFL in a big way come 2006, when it acquired what had been the Monday Night Football package from ABC and moved it to Sunday nights, where it sits atop the prime time ratings to this day. What is now MNF is actually the old ESPN Sunday night package.

We've now contested thirty-two Super Bowls in the Pythagorean universe, and the NFC all-time lead is down to 19-13.

Next: We look at the standings for 1998.

Thoughts?

 

[Garrett Garlits]

Now let's look at the AFC in 1998. We begin in the East:

New York Jets: 12-4 (0)
Miami Dolphins: 10-6 (0)
Buffalo Bills: 10-6 (0)
New England Patriots: 8-8 (-1)
Indianapolis Colts: 5-11 (+2)

The first three spots in the division remain unchanged. The Pats drop a game to finish right at .500, but hang on to fourth, while the Peyton Manning era begins in Indianapolis with a two-game bump and a last-place finish.

We go to the expected wins tiebreaker to settle the tie for second, and the Fins edge the Bills, 9.8 to 9.7.

Now to the Central:

Jacksonville Jaguars: 9-7 (-2)
Tennessee Oilers: 8-8 (0)
Pittsburgh Steelers: 7-9 (0)
Baltimore Ravens: 6-10 (0)
Cincinnati Bengals: 4-12 (+1)

The Jags drop a pair, but still take their second consecutive division title by a game over the Oilers, who stay where they are. The Steelers and Ravens freeze where they are as well, while the last-place Bengals improve by a game by still finish five games out of first.

Finally, to the West:

Denver Broncos: 12-4 (-2)
Seattle Seahawks; 10-6 (+2)
Kansas City Chiefs: 7-9 (0)
Oakland Raiders: 6-10 (-2)
San Diego Chargers: 5-11 (0)

The Broncos fall off by two, but still win the division by a pair over the surging Seahawks, who also pick up a pair and move into second. The Chiefs freeze in place, while the Raiders' two-game slide costs them a .500 record and drops them into fourth. The Chargers stay where they are and finish in the basement.

Seeds:

1. Broncos (AFC West champs): 12-4
2. Jets (AFC East champs): 12-4
3. Jaguars (AFC Central champs): 9-7
4. Dolphins (AFC East second place): 10-6
5. Bills (AFC East third place): 10-6
6. Seahawks (AFC West second place): 10-6

The Dolphins, Bills and Seahawks all finished 10-6. The Dolphins are the first wild card because they have 9.8 expected wins. The Bills and the Seahawks remain tied for the five seed with 9.7 expected wins. The teams didn't play each other, so the head-to-head tiebreakers are invalid. We go next to conference record. The Seahawks were 5-7 in the AFC, but since they only lost six games in the Pythagorean universe, they get a bump to 6-6. That still doesn't top the Bills, who finish 7-5 in the AFC and thus take the five seed.

The Wild Card round began on January 2 at Pro Player Stadium in Miami, where the Fins scored a 24-17 victory over the Bills. Danny Marino completed twenty-three of his thirty-four passes for 235 yards with a touchdown and an interception. Wide receiver Oronde Gadsden was his main target, catching five passes for eighty-five yards. Fellow wideout O.J. McDuffie caught six passes for fifty-three yards, and running back Karim Abdul-Jabbar gained ninety-five yards on twenty-seven carries.

Bills quarterback Doug Flutie finished twenty-one of thirty-six for 360 yards with a touchdown and an interception, and the Miami defense sacked him three times. Thurman Thomas was held to just thirty-three yards on seven carries with a touchdown, and the Bills only rushed for seventy-seven yards as a team on eighteen attempts. But wide receiver Eric Moulds had one of the greatest receiving games in postseason history, catching nine passes for 240 yards and a touchdown.

The other Wild Card Game will take place in Jacksonville on January 3, as the Jaguars entertain the Seahawks. Kickoff is set for 12:30 PM Eastern on CBS, with Greg Gumbel and Phil Simms on hand to call the action and Armen Keteyian reporting from the sidelines.

Next: We look at the NFC.

Thoughts?

 

[Garrett Garlits]

Now let's look at the NFC. We begin in the East:

Dallas Cowboys: 11-5 (+1)
Arizona Cardinals: 7-9 (-2)
New York Giants: 7-9 (-1)
Washington Redskins: 6-10 (0)
Philadelphia Eagles: 2-14 (-1)

The Boys improve by one while the Cards fall off by two and the Giants by one, which increases the Dallas victory margin to four games. The Skins lock themselves in fourth, while the ;last-place Eagles become even more pathetic with a one-game slide.

We go to the expected wins tiebreaker to settle the tie for second, and the Giants take it, 7/3 to 6.6.

Now to the Central:

Minnesota Vikings: 13-3 (-2)
Green Bay Packers: 10-6 (-1)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 9-7 (+1)
Detroit Lions: 6-10 (+1)
Chicago Bears: 5-11 (+1)

The Vikes drop a pair, but still top the Pack (one-game slide) by three. The Bucs add a game to get over .500, while the Lions and Bears each add a game to make their dismal seasons a tad more respectable.

Finally, the West:

Atlanta Falcons: 12-4 (-2)
San Francisco 49ers: 11-5 (-1)
New Orleans Saints: 7-9 (+1)
Carolina Panthers: 6-10 (+2)
St. Louis Rams: 5-11 (+1)

The Dirty Birds drop a pair, but they still take the division by a game over the Niners, who drop one. The third-place Saints add a game, while the Panthers' two-game bump allows them to leapfrog the Rams (one-game uptick) and claim fourth.

Seeds:

1. Vikings (NFC Central champs): 13-3
2. Falcons (NFC West champs): 12-4
3. Cowboys (NFC East champs): 11-5
4. 49ers (NFC West second place): 11-5
5. Packers (NFC Central second place): 10-6
6. Buccaneers (NFC Central third place): 9-7

The Niners and Packers faced off in the second Wild Card Game on Sunday, January 3 at Candlestick Park, and the Niners scored a thrilling comeback win, as Steve Young's touchdown pass to Terrell Owens (familiarly known as "The Catch II") with eight seconds left in regulation gave the Niners a heartstopping 30-27 win. Young only threw for 182 yards on eighteen of thirty-two passing and was intercepted twice, but he also threw three touchdown passes. Owens finished with seventy-three yards on three catches with a score; the other two touchdowns went to tight end Greg Clark. Garrison Hearst led the running game with 128 yards on twenty-two carries.

For the Pack, Brett Favre finished twenty of thirty-five for 292 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions. Antonio Freeman caught four passes for seventy-five yards and both touchdowns, while Dorsey Levens led the running game with 116 yards on twenty-seven carries with a touchdown.

The other Wild Card Game took place on January 2, as the Cowboys hosted the Bucs at Texas Stadium. Kickoff took place at 4PM Eastern on ABC, with Mike Patrick, Joe Theismann, and Paul Maguire calling the action and Solomon Wilcots as the sideline reporter..

Next: The Boys take on the Bucs.

Thoughts?

 

[Garrett Garlits]

Now it's time for the first 1998 NFC Wild Card Game from Texas Stadium in Irving, Texas. Game time temperature is Game time temperature is 44 degrees, with fair skies and a north-northwest wind gusting to 31 MPH.

The Boys scored first. Troy Aikman completed passes of twenty-three yards to Michael Irvin and fifteen yards to fellow wide receiver Billy Davis, and running back Sherman Williams' ten-yard gain on a sweep to the left gave the Boys a first and goal at the Tampa Bay two-yard line. Two plays later from the one, Aikman and Irvin connected on a short touchdown lob, and kicker Richie Cunningham added the extra point to give the home squad a 7-0 lead with 9:53 to play in the opening quarter.

The Bucs answered with a touchdown of their own. Trent Dilfer hit wideout Bert Emmanuel for ten yards and a first down, then hit backup wide receiver Karl Williams (no relation that I know of to Sherman for twenty yards and another first. The Bucs got into the red zone when running back Warrick Dunn cut back to the left on a sweep for eleven-yard gain, then was pulled down by his facemask, courtesy of defensive back Kevin Smith. This gifted the visitors a first and goal at the Dallas three-yard line, and fullback Mike Alstott ran over two Cowboys on his way into the end zone for the score on the next play. Michael Husted added the extra point, and after one quarter we were tied at seven.

The home squad took the halftime lead with a field goal. Smith redeemed himself for his earlier mistake by picking off Dilfer's short pass intended for Dunn and returning it to the Tampa ten-yard line. Three plays later Cunningham nailed a twenty-two yard chip shot, and our halftime score was Dallas 10, Tampa Bay 7.

The Bucs evened things up with a field goal early in the third quarter, thanks to a sixteen-yard gain on a draw by Alstott and a twenty-six yard strike from Dilfer to wide receiver Reidel Anthony. The drive was stalled at the Dallas sixteen, but Husted punched through a thirty-three yard attempt to tie the game at ten with about ten minutes left in the period.

The visitors took their first-ever postseason lead with another field goal just before the end of the quarter. The key play was Jacquez Green's punt return, which set up the offense at the Boys' forty-four. Dilfer and company scratched for one first down, but this drive ended at the Dallas twenty-eight. Husted's forty-five yarder cleared with room to spare, though, and at the end of three it was Bucs 13, Boys 10.

The Bucs added another field goal on their next possession, as Green returned another punt inside Cowboys territory, this time to the forty-three. Alstott ran another draw play, this time for fourteen yards, and Dunn contributed a twelve-yard catch-and-run. From the Dallas fifteen, it was a thirty-two yard attempt for Husted, and everything worked to expand the Tampa lead to 16-10 with a little over eleven minutes remaining in regulation.

The Bucs put the game away with one last field goal in the final minute. Alstott and Green each had twelve-yard catch-and-runs, and Dilfer hit Emmanuel for fifteen yards and Anthony for twenty-two and a first and goal at the Cowboys' five. The offense gained only one yard in the next three plays; not wanting to try for a touchdown on fourth and goal from the four and give Aikman even a ghost of a chance to win the game with a touchdown, Bucs coach Tony Dungy called on Husted from twenty-one yards out, and the kick was good. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers had won their first postseason game ever, upsetting the Cowboys 19-10.

Alstott and Husted shared the MVP award given by the Sunday Night Football crew. Husted made all four of his field goal attempts, while Alstott bulled his way through the Dallas defense for seventy-six yards on seventeen carries plus a touchdown. Dunn was held to just twenty-six yards on twenty carries, though he did catch three passes for thirty yards. Anthony caught three more for fifty-nine yards to lead the receiving corps. Dilfer was good enough to win, completing fourteen of his twenty-six passes for 176 yards with an interception.

The Boys sputtered on offense all day. Aikman only completed eleven of his twenty-four passes for 104 yards and a touchdown. Former Steeler Ernie Mills was Dallas' leading receiver with thirty-seven yards on two catches, while Irvin was held to thirty-six yards on four catches with a touchdown. The running game was completely snuffed out, as the Tampa defense permitted just fifty-four yards on twenty-nine attempts. Emmitt Smith was their leading rusher, but he only managed twenty-four yards on seventeen carries.

The Bucs will now go to the Metrodome in Minneapolis, where they'll take on their NFC Central rivals the Minnesota Vikings in the second NFC Divisional Playoff next Sunday afternoon. Kickoff is set for 4PM Eastern on Fox, with Pat Summerall and John Madden calling the action and Ron Pitts patrolling the sidelines.

Next: The Bucs clash with the Vikes.

Thoughts?

 

[Garrett Garlits]

Now it's time for the second 1998 NFC Divisional Playoff from the Metrodome in Minneapolis:

The Bucs scored first after taking the opening kickoff. The drive consisted of thirteen plays and took over eight and a half minutes off the clock, with no play gaining over eight yards. The Bucs reached the Minnesota thirty-two, and Michael Husted's forty-nine yard field goal gave them a 3-0 lead with 6:14 left in the opening period.

The Vikes answered with a touchdown on their next possession. Reserve running back Moe Williams cut a pitch back to the right to gain eleven yards, and quarterback Randall Cunningham completed passes pf twenty-seven yards to Cris Carter and twenty yards to fellow wideout Randy Moss. The touchdown came on first and goal from the Tampa ten, when running back Robert Smith found a hole off right tackle and wiggled through it, then turned on the speed and zipped into the end zone. Gary Anderson added the extra point, and with two minutes left in the opening period the Vikes led 7-3.

The next Bucs possession lasted three plays before Trent Dilfer's pass intended for Bert Emmanuel was picked off by cornerback Corey Fuller, who returned the ball to the Bucs' twenty-seven. It took just one play for the Vikes to cash in, as we hear from Pat Summerall:

"First down and ten from the twenty-seven. Smith behind Cunningham, with three wide receivers. They'll run it with Smith, and there's a big hole up the middle. They were expecting a pass, and Smith will make them pay! Down to the five and into the end zone!...……...No one laid a hand on him, John. They were all concerned about Carter and Moss."

John Madden: "That's why the running game is so effective in a passing offense when you have a good back, and that's what Robert Smith is. The Buccaneers are so determined not to let Cris Carter and Randy Moss beat them that they leave Smith all alone once he passes the line of scrimmage. Unless Tony Dungy and (defensive coordinator) Monte Kiffin make some adjustments, the Vikings ought to be able to run that play all day long for big yardage."

Anderson's extra point was good,, and after one quarter the Vikes led 14-3.

The Vikes added a field goal just before the end of the first half after Fuller picked off another rDilfer pass. The big play of the drove was tight end Andrew Glover's thirty-three yard catch-and-run which gave the Vikes a first and goal from the Tampa six-inch line. Unfortunately, only two second were left on the clock, so Vikes coach Dennis Green opted for an eighteen-yard field goal from Anderson, who converted to give the NFC's top seed a 17-3 halftime lead.

The Vikes exploded out of the blocks after taking the second half kickoff. Smith's thirty-two yard gain up the middle got them into Bucs territory at the forty-two, and on third and five from the thirty-seven they struck as they had all season. Here's Pat:

"The Vikings will pass here on third and five. Four wide receivers: Moss, Carter, Jake Reed, and David Palmer. Smith in the backfield. Cunningham goes back, the rush is on, he fires...…....CAUGHT BY CARTER AT THE FIVE, AND THIS WILL BE A TOUCHDOWN!...…….Pass was right on the money, and (cornerback) Ronde Barber was the victim."

Madden: "There are just too may good receivers to double-cover for the Buccaneers. You have choices if you play the Vikings, and every one of them is wrong. This time they double-covered Moss, and that left Carter one-on-one with Ronde Barber. Once Carter gets separation, it's just a matter of the pass being on time from Cunningham, and there it is, right on the button."

Anderson added the extra point, and after three quarters it was Vikes 24, Bucs 3.

The Vikes added another touchdown on their next possession, as Cunningham found Carter for seventeen yards, Reed for eleven, and backup wide receiver Andrew Hatchette for eighteen. Smith eventually scored his third touchdown of the day from a yard out, and the Vikes led 31-3 with about twelve minutes left in regulation.

The Bucs salvaged a bit of pride with a touchdown on their next possession. Warrick Dunn gained elven yards on a pitch to the right, and a nineteen-yard pass to Reidel Anthony put the Bucs in Vikings territory at the forty-five. Here's Pat with what happened next:

"First and ten from the Minnesota forty-five. Dilfer back to throw, blitz coming, he gets it off to (Mike) Alstott. Thirty-five, thirty, twenty-five, runs over a man at the twenty, another at the fifteen, and he's still going! He'll go all the way into the end zone for the Buccaneers touchdown!...….Forty-five yards, and it didn't matter to him that his team was down by twenty-eight; he was still in there fighting."

Madden: "Mike Alstott is a special player, Pat, and this touchdown is proof. He ran this play just as hard as he would have if it was a scoreless tie in the first quarter. Look at him lower hos shoulder and run over )linebacker) Dixon Edwards, then Corey Fuller. He didn't have to do that, but he still wanted to get his team back in the game."

Summerall: "Three touchdowns in seven and a half minutes? I suppose it's possible."

Husted added the extra point, and the Minnesota lead was down to 31-10.

The Vikes added one last field goal on their next possession to erase all doubt. Palmer returned the ensuing kickoff all the way down to the Bucs' nineteen, and after running a few plays to take time off the clock, the Vikes called on Anderson for another eighteen-yard chip shot, which was good. Our final score: Minnesota 34, Tampa Bay 10.

Smith earned his place on the side of the Maddencruiser, gaining 131 yards on eighteen carries with three touchdowns. As for Cunningham, he completed sixteen of thirty-three for 246 yards with a touchdown and an interception. Carter was his main target, with eighty-eight yards on four catches and a touchdown. Moss added five catches for sixty yards, and Glover caught a pair of balls for fifty yards. The bad news for fans of the younger Cunningham was that he only carried three times and lost three yards.

Dilfer may have been good enough for the Bucs to win last week, but that wasn't the case this week. He only completed nine of twenty-four for 135 yards with a touchdown and two interceptions, both by Fuller. Emmanuel was his leading receiver with four catches for fifty-one yards, and Alstott gained fifty yards on two catches, forty-five of them on his touchdown catch-and-run. Dunn led the rushing attack with sixty-six yards on seventeen carries, but failed to catch a pass.

The day before at the Georgia Dome in Atlanta, the Falcons joined the Bucs by winning their first-ever postseason game, as they held off a late comeback by the Niners to nip them 20-18 and move on to their first-ever NFC Championship Game. Running back Jamal Anderson was the offensive star for the Dirty Birds, as he gained 113 yards on twenty-nine carries and scored two touchdowns, including one from thirty-four yards out. Chris Chandler completed twelve of nineteen for 169 yards with an interception; his main targets were wide receiver Terence Mathis, who caught five passes for seventy-one yards, and fellow wideout Tony Martin, who caught four for sixty-three. The defense did its part by picking off Steve Young three times.

The future Hall of Famer still completed twenty-three of thirty-seven for 289 yards and a touchdown to Jerry Rice, who caught three passes for sixty-three yards. He was outgained by both J.J. Stokes (five catches, seventy-six yards) and Terrell Owens (eight catches, seventy-three yards). Young also scored a rushing touchdown to cut the Falcons' lead to 20-18 with 4:28 left, but the Birds held on from there.

The following week in a classic NFC Championship Game at the Metrodome, Morten Andersen's thirty-eight yard overtime field goal gave the visitors an unforgettable 30-27 upset victory. Jamal was held to sixty-seven yards on twenty-three carries, but Chandler made up for it with the game of his life, completing twenty-seven of forty-three for 340 yards and three touchdowns. Jamal caught one, while Mathis caught a pair as part of a six-catch, seventy-three yard game. Martin added 129 yards on five catches. Chandler was sacked three times, but the Atlanta defense also sacked Cunningham three times.

Speaking of Randall, he finished twenty-nine of forty-eight for 266 yards with two touchdowns. Hatchette caught one and Moss the other. Moss was the leading receiver with six catches for seventy-five yards, while Carter added six more for sixty-seven. Smith managed seventy-one yards on twenty-one carries, while Cunningham scored a third touchdown on the ground. But the play everyone will never forget came with 2:11 left in regulation when Gary, who hadn't missed a field goal in two years, pulled a thirty-nine yard potential game winner wide right. He was heavily rushed by the Falcons, but they missed the ball and only got to him after the kick was already away.

The Falcons will represent the NFC in Super Bowl XXXIII on January 31 at Pro Player Stadium in Miami,

Next: We turn to the AFC playoffs by examining the second Wild Card Game, as the Seahawks visit the Jaguars.

Thoughts?

 

[Unknown]

Please have the Vikings not lose the NFC title ITTL...

 

[Garrett Garlits]

Now it's time for the second 1998 AFC Wild Card Game from Alltel Stadium in Jacksonville. Game time temperature is 64 degrees, with cloudy skies and a west-southwest wind at 10 MPH.

The Jaguars scored first after taking the opening kickoff. Mark Brunell completed passes of eleven yards to Jimmy Smith, ten yards to Pete Mitchell, and seventeen yards to Keenan McCardell, which helped bring them down to the Seahawks' ten-yard line. The drive stalled there, but Mike Hollis' twenty-seven yard field goal put them up 3-0 with 7:22 to play in the opening period.

The Jags got the ball right back after Seahawks running back Ahman Green fumbled without being hit on the first play from scrimmage after the ensuing kickoff. Linebacker Kevin Hardy recovered the ball at the Seattle sixteen, but a holding penalty killed the drive's momentum, and Hollis had to try a thirty-seven yard field goal. The kick was good, and after one quarter the Jags led 6-0.

The Jags kicked a third consecutive field goal midway through the second quarter. Running back Fred Taylor contributed a thirteen-yard catch-and-run, and Brunell found McCardell for eleven yards and backup wideout Reggie Barlow for twenty-four yards and a first and goal at the Hawks' nine. The Jags got as far as the four before Hollis made his third field goal of the half from twenty-one yards out, which put the home squad up 9-0 with 8:41 left in the first half.

The Seahawks finally got on the board with a field goal on the final play of the first half. The key plays were a pair of twelve-yard Warren Moon passes: one to wideout Mike Pritchard, the other to fellow wide receiver Brian Blades. The Hawks had fought their way to the Jacksonville twenty by the end of the half, and kicker Todd Peterson put them on the board with a thirty-seven yard field goal that cut the Jags' lead to 9-3 at the half. There was no scoring in the third quarter.

The Hawks added another field goal in a drive that spanned the end of the third period and the start of the fourth. Green gained thirteen yards on a sweep to the left, and fellow running back Ricky Watters picked up ten yards on a draw play. Moon's nineteen-yard pass to Pritchard put Seattle in field goal range, and from the Jags' twenty-seven Peterson booted a forty-four yard field goal to cut the Hawks' deficit to 9-6 with 13:36 remaining in the game.

The Hawks took the lead with the afternoon's first touchdown midway through the final period. Watters popped off right tackle for thirteen yards, and Moon completed passes of eleven yards to wide receiver James McKnight, twelve yards to tight end Christian Fauria, and twenty-five yards to wide receiver Joey Galloway. The touchdown came from three yards out, as Moon flipped the ball to McKnight for the go-ahead score. Peterson's extra point put the visitors up 13-9 with a little under eight minutes left in regulation.

The Seattle defense put this game away with less than two minutes remaining. As we pick up the call from Greg Gumbel, it's first and ten for the Jags from their own twenty-one:

"Three wide receivers for Brunell with Taylor the lone setback. He'll have to throw, as we have 1:58 to play in regulation with the Jags down 13-9. He's got the snap...…..going short over the middle.....off McCardell's hands and picked off! Shawn Springs with his second interception today, and he's got blockers in front of him! Down to the fifteen, the ten, the five, IT'S A SEATTLE TOUCHDOWN!......The Seahawks can start thinking about Denver, Phil."

Phil Simms: "This is a very alert play by Shawn Springs. He's right next to McCardell when the ball goes off his hands, and he scoops it up easily and takes off. The blockers form in front of him, and he's got the easy touchdown that puts the game away for the Seahawks."

Peterson added one last extra point, and the Hawks had wrapped up a 20-9 upset victory.

Springs was named Player of the Game by CBS. He picked off two Brunell passes, returning one of them for the game-clinching touchdown. On the offensive side, Moon threw only twenty times, completing twelve for 163 yards and a touchdown. Pritchard was his main receiver with seventy-one yards on four catches, and Watters led the running game with fifty-two yards on nineteen carries. The Hawks as a team managed only eighty-three rushing yards on thirty-one attempts.

For the Jags, Brunell completed seventeen of twenty-nine for 212 yards, but was intercepted three times. McCardell was his leading receiver with sixty-two yards on four catches, while Smith contributed fifty-four yards on five receptions and Taylor caught four balls out of the backfield for fifty-one yards. Taylor also led the rushing attack with fifty-three yards on seventeen carries, but the Jags could only run for eighty-seven yards on thirty-five carries as a team.

The next stop for the Hawks is Mile High Stadium in Denver, where they'll take on the Broncos in the first AFC Divisional Playoff next Saturday. Kickoff is scheduled for 4PM Eastern on CBS, with Greg and Phil once again calling the action and Armen Keteyian once again serving as sideline reporter.

Next: The Hawks visit the Broncos.

Thoughts?

 

[Garrett Garlits]

Now it's time for the first 1998 AFC Divisional Playoff from Mile High Stadium in Denver. Game time temperature is 48 degrees, with fair skies and a west-northwest wind at 14 MPH.

The Broncos scored first. Derrien Gordon returned a Jeff Feagles punt all the way to the Seattle thirty-six, and John Elway threw to Ed McCaffrey for thirteen yards and Shannon Sharpe for sixteen. The drive ended there, but Jason Elam's twenty-four yard field goal gave the Broncos a 3-0 lead with 6:02 to play in the opening period.

The Broncos added another field goal before the end of the quarter. Terrell Davis gained twelve yards on a draw play, and Elway completed a twenty-one yard pass to wideout Marcus Nash. This drive reached the Seattle sixteen before stalling, and Elam's thirty-three yard field goal made it 6-0 Broncos after one quarter.

The Hawks next drive lasted just two plays, as Moon was intercepted by Gordon, who returned the ball to the Hawks' fifteen. Two plays later, Elway hit a wide-open McCaffrey in the end zone for the touchdown from fourteen yards out. Elam added the extra point, and with a little under thirteen minutes left in the second quarter it was Broncos 13, Seahawks 0.

The dominance of the world champions continued on their next possession. Elway went back to McCaffrey for fourteen yards, then connected with Rod Smith for gains of nineteen and thirteen. The last pass gave the Broncos a first and ten at the Seattle twelve, and Davis took it from there, bolting up the middle and into the end zone for the touchdown. Elam added the extra point, and the Broncos were in control 20-0 with 4:45 left until halftime.

The Broncos kept right on rolling, scoring again just before halftime. Moon was once again intercepted, this time by linebacker John Mobley, whose return gave the offense the ball at the Seattle forty-four. Elway went for the bomb two plays later, and Smith ran under the ball and caught it while dragging both toes before being pushed out of bounds at the nine, a gain of thirty-two. Davis once again ran a draw play up the middle and into the end zone for the touchdown, and Elam's extra point gave the home squad a 27-0 halftime lead.

The home squad kept pouring it on after taking the second half kickoff. Davis pounded his way up the middle once more for forty-five yards on the first play from scrimmage, and he eventually scored a touchdown from eighteen yards out after cutting a pitch back to the right and breaking a pair of Seahawk tackles. Elam converted yet another extra point, and the Denver lead was 34-0 with 12:10 still to play in the third period.

At this point, Moon was pulled by Seahawks coach Dennis Erickson in favor of Jon Kitna, and the move appeared to pay dividends when the visitors finally got on the board. Kitna completed passes of fourteen yards to Joey Galloway and twenty-four yards to Michael Pritchard, and the Hawks managed to reach the Denver twenty-three before their drive fizzled. Todd Peterson's forty-yard field goal spoiled the Broncos' attempt at a shutout, and it was a 34-3 game after three quarters.

The Hawks continued their mini-comeback early in the final period. Ricky Watters ran a draw play for twenty yards, and Kitna found Galloway for fourteen yards, Brian Blades for twenty-one, and James McKnight for seventeen. Watters took it in up the middle on third and goal from the three, and Peterson's extra point cut the Denver lead to 34-10 with just under elven minutes to play.

The Broncos answered with a touchdown of their own. Gordon corralled Kitna's underthrow of Galloway for his second interception of the day ad returned it to the Hawks' forty-four, and Davis immediately took a pitchout to the right for twelve yards and a first down. Elway's ten-yard pass to Sharpe put the ball at the six, and Davis took it up the middle again from there for his fourth touchdown of the day. Elam added another extra point, and with a little over six minutes remaining the Broncos were cruising 41-10.

Davis would return one more time to make this day historical. George Coghill's punt return had the Broncos at their own forty-seven, and no one expected Davis to return, least of all CBS's Greg Gumbel:

"First and ten for the Broncos, and Bubby Brister's the quarterback, as John Elway takes the rest of the day off. Handoff, and (Derek) Loville's up the middle...….Forty-five, forty-thirty-five, thirty, twenty-five, twenty, and no onw will catch......that's Terrell Davis, not Derek Loville, and that's five touchdowns and two hundred yards!...……….Listen to this crowd; they know the difference between 30 and 31, even if I don't!"

Phil Simms: "I don't know why they've still got Davis in there, Greg, but it's quite a moment here. I don't think a running back has ever scored five touchdowns in a postseason game, and he certainly does it in style. The Seahawks haven't been able to stop him going up the middle all day, and they don't here either. It looks like he's got the game ball in his hands, and he deserves it."

Indeed he did, and Elam's extra point mercifully ended the slaughter for Seattle. Final score: Broncos 48, Seahawks 10.

No one else but Davis was even thought of for Player of the Game after he turned the Seahawks' defense into mulch with 207 yards on twenty-four carries and five touchdowns, an NFL record for both applicable universes in postseason play. Smith caught four passes for sixty-eight yards, and McCaffrey added five more for fifty-five and a touchdown. Elway finished fifteen of twenty-four for 188 yards with a touchdown and two interceptions, one of which (by Shawn Springs) set up the Hawks' only touchdown. (By the way, Davis' fifth touchdown wasn't planned; Loville was supposed to take his place, but he lost a shoe on the sideline, forcing Davis to go back in for one more play.)

Watters ended the day as the Hawks' leading rusher with forty-four yards on nineteen carries, and the team managed only fifty-five yards on the ground in twenty-six attempts. Pritchard and Galloway each gained fifty-six yards to lead the receivers; Pritchard had four catches, while Galloway had three. The one thing that sank the Hawks more than any other was bad quarterbacking Moon and Kitna combined to go just fourteen of thirty-four for 177 yards, and they were picked off five times, with Gordon and cornerback Ray Crockett each grabbing a pair.

The Broncos will now move on to next Sunday's AFC Championship Game, where they'll host the winner of tomorrow's second Divisional Playoff between the Dolphins and the Jets at the Meadowlands. Kickoff tomorrow is scheduled for 12:30 PM Eastern on CBS, with Verne Lundquist and Randy Cross calling the action and Michele Tafoya on the sidelines. The AFC title game will kick off next Sunday at 4PM Eastern on CBS, with Greg and Phil again calling the action and Arman Keteyian and Bonnie Bernstein on the sidelines.

Next: The Dolphins take on the Jets.

Thoughts?

 

[Garrett Garlits]

Now it's time for the second 1998 AFC Divisional Playoff from The Meadowlands in East Rutherford, New Jersey. Game time temperature is 27 degrees, with partly cloudy skies and a north-northwest wind at 6 MPH.

The Dolphins scored first early in the second quarter. Danny Marino threw a ten-yard screen pass to running back John Avery and a twenty-four yard pass to Oronde Gadsden, and Karim Abdul-Jabbar sprinted up the middle for forty yards and a first and goal at the Jets' one-yard line. The New York defense stood strong for three plays, but Abdul-Jabbar leapt over the top for the touchdown on fourth and goal, and kicker Olindo Mare added the extra point to give the Fins a 7-0 lead with a little under twelve minutes left until halftime.

The Fins scored again on the last play of the half. Marino's seventeen-yard pass to tight end Troy Drayton with two seconds left got them into Hail Mary position, and here's Verne Lundquist with the result:

"Everybody back for the Jets; it's just a matter of how far Marino can throw it. Shotgun snap, Marino winds up, fires downfield and......CAUGHT BY O'J.MCDUFFIE! TOUCHDOWN MIAMI!...….Thirty-seven years old, and he still got it there on a rope."

Randy Cross: "Usually there's some kind of tip drill, but this one was a laser, perfectly aimed and expertly thrown. He gets a ton of time due to the offensive line, and this ball is perfect. No one in a Jets uniform comes anywhere close to it, and McDuffie gathers it in for six."

Mare's extra point attempt banged off the right upright and fell no good, but the visitors still enjoyed a 13-0 halftime advantage.

The Jets got on the board with a touchdown after taking the second half kickoff. Quarterback Vinny Testaverde completed a twenty-three yard pass to wideout Dedric Ward, and Curtis Martin gained forty-one yards up the middle to give his team a first down at the Miami nineteen-yard line. The touchdown came from twelve yards out, as Vinny T found wide receiver Wayne Chrebet in the end zone. John Hall added the extra pint, and the Jets were back to within 13-7 with 11:04 to play in the third quarter.

The Jets took the lead with another touchdown on their next possession. Testaverde and Chrebet connected for twelve more yards, and fullback Jerald Sowell ran for fourteen yards up the middle to get another first down. A seventeen-yard pass to tight end Kyle Brady put the Jets in the Miami red zone, and on the next play Martin exploded up the middle and into the end zone untouched. Hall's extra point put the Jets up 14-13 with about seven minutes to play in the third.

The Fins took the lead back before the third quarter expired when cornerback Sam Madison picked off a Testaverde pass and returned it to the Jets' twelve-yard line. An unnecessary roughness penalty on the Jets moved the ball to the six, and three plays later from the four Mare kicked a twenty-one yard field goal to put the Fins back in the lead 16-14 after three quarters.

A second New York turnover in as many possessions led to another field goal by the Dolphs early in the final period. Madison was once again directly responsible, as his hit on Jets running back Leon Johnson knocked the ball loose. Linebacker Derrick Rodgers made the recovery at the Jets' forty-five, and a sixteen-yard pass to McDuffie put Marino and company in field goal range. Mare was eventually good from forty-one yards out to extend the Miami lead to 19-14 with a little under thirteen minutes left in regulation.

The Fins put the game away with one last field goal. The two biggest plays on the drive were passes to Gadsden; one went for eleven yards, the other for twelve. The drive eventually reached the Jets' twenty-two before it stalled, but Mare's thirty-nine yarder ended the scoring. Our final: Fins 22, Jets 14.

Abdul-Jabbar was named Player of the Game by CBS after gaining ninety-nine yards on twenty carries. Avery, who spent most of the year as a punt returner, added forty-six yards on eleven carries. Marino finished eighteen of twenty-eight for 195 yards with a touchdown, and McDuffie caught that touchdown as part of a six-reception, seventy-seven yard effort. Gadsden added forty-nine yards on five catches.

For the Jets, Testaverde was fourteen of twenty-eight for 158 yards with a touchdown and three interceptions. Chrebet led the receivers with four catches for fifty-eight yards and a touchdown. Martin had a fabulous game in a losing cause, carrying twenty-three times for 127 yards with a touchdown.

The Fins moved on to Denver for the AFC Championship Game the following week, but they never stood a chance against the defending world champions. Terrell Davis came within a yard of back-to-back two hundred-yard games, finishing with 199 yards on twenty-one carries with two touchdowns, and Rod Smith led the passing game with four catches for seventy-one yards and a touchdown. John Elway finished fourteen of twenty-three for 182 yards, and another Smith, defensive end Neil, wrapped things up by returning a fumble seventy-nine yards for a touchdown.

Marino was twenty-six of thirty-seven for 243 yards but was intercepted twice, and the running game was no help, as Abdul-Jabbar carried the ball only three times for five yards and the Dolphs only carried ten times for nineteen yards as a team. Final score: Denver 38, Miami 3.

Two weeks later, in Miami of all places, the Broncos sent Elway into retirement a back-to-back Super Bowl champion, as they defeated the NFC champion Atlanta Falcons 34-19. Davis managed 102 yards on twenty-five carries, and fullback Howard Griffith scored a pair of rushing touchdowns. But this game was about Number 7, who finished eighteen of twenty-nine for 336 yards. Rod finished with five catches for 152 yards including an eighty-yard touchdown, and Ed McCaffrey caught five balls for seventy-two yards. Not to be left out, Davis caught a pair of passes for fifty.

For the Falcons, Chris Chandler wasn't too bad, completing nineteen of thirty-five for 219 yards despite being sacked twice and intercepted three times. Terence Mathis caught seven passes for eighty-five yards, and Tony Martin five for seventy-nine. Jamal Anderson managed ninety-six yards on eighteen carries, and Tim Dwight returned a kickoff ninety-four yards for a touchdown.

We've now contested thirty-three Super Bowls in the Pythagorean universe, and the NFC's all-time lead is down to 19-14.

Next: The standings for 1999.

Thoughts?

 

[Garrett Garlits]

Now it's time to examine 1999 in the AFC. We begin in the East:

Buffalo Bills: 11-5 (0)
Indianapolis Colts: 10-6 (-3)
New England Patriots: 9-7 (+1)
Miami Dolphins: 8-8 (-1)
New York Jets: 8-8 (0)

The Bills are able to win the division while standing pat because the Colts take a three-game nosedive into second. The Pats improve by a game to switch places with the Fins, while the Jets say goodbye to Bill Parcells by tying the Fins for fourth. This is also the end of Jimmy Johnson in Miami; he'll be replaced by Dave Wannstedt in 2000.

We go to the expected wins tiebreaker to settle the tie for fourth, and it goes to the Jets, 8.0 to 7.7.

Now to the Central:

Jacksonville Jaguars: 13-3 (-1)
Tennessee Titans: 10-6 (-3)
Baltimore Ravens: 10-6 (+2)
Pittsburgh Steelers: 8-8 (+2)
Cincinnati Bengals: 4-12 (0)
Cleveland Browns: 3-13 (+1)

The Jags take their third straight Central title despite dropping a game. The real-life AFC champs take the same flying leap that the Colts did in the East, and that lands them in a tie for second with the Ravens, who add a pair and also shake off the ghost of the original Browns once and for all. The Steelers' two-game improvement lands them at .500, while the Bengals freeze in fifth place. As for the returning Browns, they add a game but still finish last.

We go to the expected wins tiebreaker to settle the tie for second, and it goes to the Titans, 9.8 to 9.5.

Finally, the West:

Kansas City Chiefs: 10-6 (+1)
Oakland Raiders: 10-6 (+2)
Seattle Seahawks: 9-7 (0)
Denver Broncos: 8-8 (+2)
San Diego Chargers: 7-9 (-1)

We have a major change on top, as the Chiefs bump up by one and the Raiders by two to tie for the crown. The real-life champion Seahawks thus fall to third despite a frozen record. The two-time defending world champions pick up a pair to finish at .500, and the Bolts lose their even record by dropping a game and fall past the Broncos and into the cellar.

We go to the expected wins tiebreaker to settle the tie for the division title, and it goes to the Chiefs, 9.8 to 9.6.

Seeds:

1. Jaguars (AFC Central champs): 13-3
2. Bills (AFC East champs): 11-5
3. Chiefs (AFC West champs): 10-6
4. Colts (AFC East second place; won four-way tiebreaker): 10-6
5. Titans (AFC Central second place; second in four-way tiebreaker): 10-6
6. Raiders (AFC West second place; third in four-way tiebreaker): 10-6

We have a four-way tie for the three wild cards at 10-6 among the Raiders, Titans, Ravens, and Colts. The Colts win the tiebreaker with 10.2, so they'll be the four seed and get a home game on Wild Card Weekend. The Titans are next at 9.8, so they'll head to the RCA Dome to face the Colts. The Raiders are at 9.6; they'll be the six seed and travel to Arrowhead Stadium. That leaves the Ravens out at 9.5.

Wild Card Weekend schedule (all times Eastern):

Sunday, January 9:

Raiders-Chiefs, 4, CBS- Greg Gumbel, Phil Simms, Armen Keteyian (sideline reporter)

In the other Wild Card Game on January 9, the Titans went into the RCA Dome and knocked off the Colts 19-16. Running back Eddie George was almost the entirety of the Tennessee offense, as he carried twenty-six times for 162 yards, including a sixty-eight yard touchdown. Steve McNair only had to complete thirteen passes in twenty-four attempts for 162 yards, although he added thirty-five yards on seven carries. Peyton Manning had a case of the jitters in his first-ever playoff game, completing just nineteen of forty-two passes for 227 yards, although he ran for a score. Marvin Harrison caught five passes for sixty-five yards, while fellow wideout Terrence Wilkins caught four for fifty-five. On the ground, Edgerrin James was held to fifty-six yards on twenty carries.

The following week, the Titans were off to Buffalo, where they won one of the most improbable victories in NFL history on what become known as "Larceny by the Lake" ("Music City Miracle" in real life). It went down in the books as a simple seventy-five yard kickoff return by Kevin Dyson, but in reality the ball was touched by just about everyone in a Titans uniform. The play overshadowed another hundred-yard effort by George, who gained 106 yards on twenty-nine carries. McNair was once again thirteen of twenty-four passing, but those passes only totaled seventy-six yards, and he was sacked three times and intercepted once.

Meanwhile, the Tennessee defense hounded Bills quarterback Rob Johnson all day, holding him to ten of twenty-two passing for 131 yards and sacking him six times. Coach Wade Phillips completely ignored the fans' calls for Doug Flutie, and stalwarts Thurman Thomas and Andre Reed each had disappointing final games in a Bills uniform. Reed was held off the board entirely, while Thomas only gained ten yards on five carries. Wide receiver Peerless Price caught five passes for sixty-two yards, while Antowain Smith gained seventy-nine yards on fourteen carries and scored two touchdowns in a losing cause.

The Titans now await the winner of the Divisional Playoff between the Raiders (who won the game described below) and the Jaguars. If the Raiders win, they'll host the AFC Championship Game at the Adelphia Coliseum. If the Jags win as expected, the game will take place at Alltel Stadium.

Next: We look at the NFC.

Thoughts?

 

[Garrett Garlits]

Now let's look at the NFC, beginning in the East:

Dallas Cowboys: 10-6 (+2)
Washington Redskins: 10-6 (0)
New York Giants: 6-10 (-1)
Philadelphia Eagles: 6-10 (+1)
Arizona Cardinals: 5-11 (-1)

The Boys' two-game upswing earns them a tie for the division title with their archrivals, who stand pat. The Giants shed a game and the Eagles add one to force a tie for third, while the Redbirds drop a game and fall into the basement.

We have two ties to break. First, let's settle the tie for third. We go to the expected wins tiebreaker, and it comes out in favor of the Giants, 6.3 to 5.5.

Next, let's decide the division title. The Cowboys finish with 10.2 expected wins, while the Reskins check in with 9.5.

Now to the Central:

Minnesota Vikings: 10-6 (0)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 9-7 (-2)
Detroit Lions: 8-8 (0)
Green Bay Packers: 8-8 (0)
Chicago Bears: 6-10 (0)

The only movement comes from the Bucs, whose two-game slide costs them the division title and hands it to the Vikes.

We go to the expected wins tiebreaker to decide who finishes third, and it's the Pack, 8.4 to 8.0.

Finally, the West:

St. Louis Rams: 14-2 (+1)
Carolina Panthers: 9-7 (+1)
Atlanta Falcons: 5-11 (0)
San Francisco 49ers: 4-12 (0)
New Orleans Saints: 4-12 (+1)

The Greatest Show on Turf picks up a game to make their margin of victory over the second-place Panthers five. The not-so-Dirty Birds and the Niners freeze where they are, while the Saints add a game to tie the boys from the Bay for fourth. This is Mike Ditka's swan song in New Orleans; Jim Haslett will take over Black and Gold South in 2000. This is also the Niners' worst finish since they went 4-12 in 1978 and the first time they've missed the playoffs since 1980..

Seeds:

1. Rams (NFC West champs): 14-2
2. Cowboys (NFC East champs): 10-6
3. Vikings (NFC Central champs): 10-6
4. Redskins (NFC East second place): 10-6
5. Buccaneers (NFC Central second place): 9-7
6. Panthers (NFC West second place): 9-7

The Buccaneers hold the expected wins tiebreaker over the Panthers for the five seed, 9.3 to 8.9.

The Cowboys hold the expected wins tiebreaker for the two seed over the Vikings, 10.2 to 9.6.

Wild Card Weekend schedule (all times Eastern):

Saturday, January 8:

Buccaneers-Redskins, 4, ABC- Al Michaels, Boomer Esiason, Lesley Visser (sideline reporter)

Sunday, January 9:

Panthers-Vikings, 12:30, Fox- Pat Summerall, John Madden, D.J. Johnson (sideline reporter), Ron Pitts (sideline reporter)

Next: To be determined.

Thoughts?

 

[Garrett Garlits]

Now it's time for the second AFC Wild Card Game from Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City. Game time temperature is 49 degrees, with cloudy skies and a southwest wind at 7 MPH.

The Raiders scored first. Napoleon Kaufman returned the opening kickoff to the Oakland forty-five, then caught a thirteen-yard screen pass from quarterback Rich Gannon to get the Silver and Black into Chiefs' territory. A sixteen-yard run up the middle by running back Zach Crockett gave them a first down at the sixteen, and one play later from the twelve Gannon braved a fierce rush and found James Jett in the end zone for the game's first touchdown. Kicker Joe Nedney made the extra point, and the visitors led 7-0 with 9:26 to play in the opening period.

The Chiefs only had the ball for two plays before the Oakland defense struck. Quarterback Elvis Grbac was hit as h threw, and his wounded-duck pass fluttered into the arms of Derrien Gordon, whose return set the Raiders up at the Chiefs' forty-three. Gannon hit tight end Rickey Dudley with consecutive passes for gains of twelve and twenty, but the drive only gained one more yard before it stalled. However, Nedney was able to convert a twenty-seven yard field goal attempt, and the Raiders opened up a 10-0 lead with 8:33 still remaining in the opening quarter.

It was deja vu for the AFC West champs on their next possession, as on second down Grbac was once again intercepted, this time by reserve defensive back Marquis Walker. Walker's return gave the Raiders a first and goal at the Chiefs' ten, but the KC defense refused to allow a yard, which resulted in another twenty-seven yard field goal by Nedney. With 8:05 still to play in the opening priod, it was Oakland 13, Kansas City 0.

The Chiefs actually reached the Oakland nineteen on their next possession, but Grbac's fourth-down pass intended for Andre Rison fell incomplete. The Raiders took over, and on the first play running back Tyrone Wheatley found a gaping hole up the middle and roared through it for fifty-two yards and a first down at the Kansas City twenty-nine. On the nest play, Kaufman exploited the same hole for twenty-two yards and a first and goal at the seven. The drive stalled at the five, but Nedney's twenty-two yarder extended the Raiders' lead to 16-0 after one quarter.

The Raiders continued their onslaught in the second quarter. Wheatley tore through yet another hole up the middle for eleven yards, and Gannon was deadly accurate, hitting Dudley for twenty-one yards, backup wide receiver Jeremy Brigham for twenty-two, and future Hall of Famer Tim Brown for twelve. A ten-yard catch-and-run by Kaufman set up a first and goal at the Chiefs' three, and Kaufman barged up the middle and into the end zone on the next play. Gannon's two-point pass for Jett was broken up in the end zone, but the Raiders still led 22-0 with a little under twelve minutes to play in the first half.

The Chiefs finally got on the scoreboard with a touchdown on their next possession. Grbac completed passes of thirteen and sixteen yards to tight end Tony Gonzalez, then hit wide receiver Joe Horn for twelve more. A thirteen-yard run off the right side by Super Bowl XXX MVP Bam Morris gave the Chiefs a first and goal at the Raiders' six, and Bam bulled his way into the end zone from a yard out on third and goal. Pete Stoyanovich added the extra point, and the Oakland lead was down to 22-7 with a little under six minutes left until halftime.

The Chiefs scored again just before the half. Grbac hit Goonzalez for thirteen yards, then Horn for thirteen more. Reserve running back Rashan Shehee contributed a seventeen-yard catch-and-run, and Morris' eleven-yard gain on a sweep to the left turned into a twenty-six yard gain thanks to a fifteen-yard penalty on linebacker Richard Harvey for a late hit out of bounds. On first and goal from the eight, Grbac hit wide receiver Derrick Alexander for the touchdown, and Stoyanovich added the extra point to reduce the Chiefs; deficit to 22-14 at halftime.

The Raiders reinforced their lead with a touchdown after taking the second half kickoff. Kaufman's return set up the offense at its own forty-nine, and Gannon completed passes of fifteen yards to Jett and twenty-two yards to Brown. On first down from the Chiefs; twelve, Wheatley barged up the middle and into the end zone untouched. Nedney's extra point put the Raiders up 29-14 with 11:40 to play in the third quarter.

The Silver and Black added a field goal on their next possession. Kaufman started things off with a fifteen-yard catch-and run, and Gannon found Brown for fourteen yards and reserve wideout Terry Mickens for twelve. Wheatley's twenty-two yard gain on a draw play gave the Raiders a first and goal at the Kansas City ten, and on third and goal from the nine Gannon hit a wide-open Dudley for the touchdown. The play was nullified by a holding call, though, and the Raiders eventually settled for a thirty-three yard Nedney field goal and a 32-14 lead with 8:57 left in the third.

The Raiders added one more touchdown before the third period ended. The bog play was Kaufman's sixty-three yard gain on a draw play, which gave the Raiders a first down at the Chiefs' fourteen. Two plays later from the fifteen, it was Gannon to Brown for the touchdown, and Nedney made the extra point. After three quarters, the Raiders were rolling 39-14.

The Chiefs provided the only score of the final quarter. Tamarick Vanover returned a punt to the Raiders' forty-two, and fullback Tony Richardson burst off left tackle for seventeen yards on the first play. The second play lost a yard, which set up a second and eleven at the Oakland forty-one. Here's Greg Gumbel:

"Second and elven from the forty-one, Here's Richardson again......a hole off the left side. He's down to the thirty, the twenty-five, breaks a tackle at the twenty, fifteen, ten, and he'll go in for the touchdown!......It's not over yet with 8:15 to play, as the Chiefs are behind 39-20 with the extra point coming up."

Phil Simms: "The Raiders got a little sloppy with their defense up front, and Richardson found that hole off the left side and went right through it. Derrien Gordon tries a last-ditch tackle at the twenty, but a strong safety is usually no match for a fullback, and he isn't here either. The Chiefs need a few more plays like this if they want to get back in this game."

Stoyanovich added the extra point, and we had our final score: Raiders 39, Chiefs 21.

Wheatley was named MVP by CBS after gaining 128 yards on seventeen carries with a touchdown. Kaufman added ninety-five yards on eleven carries with a score, and also caught three passes for thirty-eight yards. The Oakland running game amassed 244 yards on forty attempts. Brown led the receivers with seventy-five yards on six catches with a touchdown, and Dudley added fifty-three yards on three catches. Gannon finished eighteen of twenty-seven for 238 yards with two touchdowns and an interception.

For the Chiefs, Grbac settled down after his disastrous first quarter, finishing seventeen of twenty-six for 158 yards with a touchdown and two picks. Gonzalez was his leading receiver with forty-eight yards on four catches, and ten different Chiefs caught passes on the day. Richardson led the running game with sixty-two yards on five carries with a touchdown.

The Raiders will now move on to face the top-seeded Jacksonville Jaguars in the first AFC Divisional Playoff next Saturday at Alltel Stadium. Kickoff is set for 12:30 PM Eastern on CBS, with Verne Lundquist and Dan Dierdorf calling the action and Bonnie Bernstein as the sideline reporter.

Thoughts?

 

[Garrett Garlits]

I apologize for the post I'm about to make in advance.

I mistakenly resimmed the Titans-Colts game from the AFC playoffs, which was the second Wild Card Game in the Pythagorean universe. The reason I mention this is because for personal reasons I don't have time to do another sim today. When I don't have time to do sims, I usually do standings from the following year as a way to move the timeline forward. But the next year I want to do isn't 2000, but 2010. This is because, with the 2018 season rapidly coming to an end, it will most likely be a part of WhatIf's database before too long, and I want to do the entire decade of the 2010s as a way to flow into it. Hence, the apology for the abrupt move forward. I'll figure out the rest of the '99 playoffs and get back to them tomorrow.

So here we go with 2010 in the AFC. We begin in the East:

New England Patriots: 12-4 (-2)
New York Jets: 10-6 (-1)
Miami Dolphins: 6-10 (-1)
Buffalo Bills: 4-12 (0)

The Pats drop a pair, but still take the division crown by two games over the Jets, who drop one. The third-place Fins also drop one, while the Bills freeze where they are in the basement.

Now to the North:

Pittsburgh Steelers: 12-4 (0)
Baltimore Ravens: 11-5 (-1)
Cleveland Browns: 6-10 (+1)
Cincinnati Bengals: 6-10 (+2)

The Steelers take the division title outright with their real-life 12-4 mark. This is because the Ravens drop a game to break their real-life tie. There is a tie, though, the Bengas add a pair to force a tie for third with the Browns, who pick up a game themselves.

The Browns and Bengals each finish with 6.1 expected wins, and they split the season series. We go to the third tiebreaker of total points, and the Browns edge the Bengals 40-38 to take third place.

Next, the South:

Indianapolis Colts: 9-7 (-1)
Tennessee Titans: 9-7 (+3)
Houston Texans: 7-9 (+1)
Jacksonville Jaguars: 6-10 (-2)

The big news here is the Tiitans' three-game surge, which vaults them into a tie for the division title with the Colts, who drop one. The third-place Texans add a game, while the Jags' two-game slide costs them a .500 season and drops them into last place.

We go to the expected wins tiebreaker to decide the division title, and it goes to the Colts, 9.1 to 8.5.

Finally, the West:

San Diego Chargers: 11-5 (+2)
Oakland Raiders: 9-7 (+1)
Kansas City Chiefs: 9-7 (-1)
Denver Broncos: 5-11: (+1)

The Bolts add a pair to move from a tie for second place with the Raiders all the way to the division title. The Chiefs' one-game drop means that they take the Chargers' place in the tie with the Raiders, while the last-place Broncos add a game but still finish six games behind San Diego.

Seeds:

1. Patriots (AFC East champs): 12-4
2. Steelers (AFC North champs): 12-4
3. Chargers (AFC West champs): 11-5
4. Colts (AFC South champs): 9-7
5. Ravens (AFC North second place): 11-5
6. Jets (AFC East second place): 10-6

Wild Card Weekend schedule (all times Eastern):

Saturday, January 8:

Jets-Chargers, 8, NBC- Al Michaels, Cris Collinsworth, Andrea Kremer (sideline reporter)

Sunday, January 9:

Ravens-Colts, 1, CBS- Jim Nantz, Phil Simms

Next: We look at the NFC.

Thoughts?

 

[Garrett Garlits]

Now let's look at the NFC. We begin in the East:

Philadelphia Eagles: 9-7 (-1)
New York Giants: 9-7 (-1)
Dallas Cowboys: 7-9 (+1)
Washington Redskins: 6-10 (0)

The Eagles and Giants each drop a game, which means that they're still tied for the division title. The Boys add a game despite the firing of coach Wade Phillips midseason and the promotion of Jason Garrett, while the Skins remain unchanged in the basement.

We go to the expected wins tiebreaker to decide who takes the division title, and it's the Eagles, 9.4 to 9.2.

Next, the North:

Green Bay Packers: 12-4 (+2)
Chicago Bears: 10-6 (-1)
Detroit Lions: 8-8 (+2)
Minnesota Vikings: 6-10 (0)

The Pack adds a pair to take the division crown away from the Bears, who shed a game and end up second. The Lions also add a pair to break their real-life tie with the Vikes for third, which leaves the Purple Gang frozen at 6-20 and in the basement.

Now to the South:

Atlanta Falcons: 11-5 (-2)
New Orleans Saints: 10-6 (-1)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 9-7 (-1)
Carolina Panthers: 2-14 (0)

The Falcons drop a pair, but still take the division crown by a game over the Saints, who drop one. The Bucs also drop one and finish third, while the Panthers are stuck with what they have, which is 2-14 and a basement finish.

Finally, the West:

St. Louis Rams: 7-9 (0)
San Francisco 49ers: 7-9 (+1)
Seattle Seahawks: 6-10 (-1)
Arizona Cardinals: 4-12 (-1)

There's a tie at the top, but it's the Niners, not the Hawks, who end up deadlocked with the Rams. The Niners add a game, while the Hawks drop one and fall all the way to third. The last-place Redbirds also drop a game.

We go to the expected wins tiebreaker to decide the division crown, and both teams finish with 6.8. Next is the head-to-head tiebreaker, and the teams split their season series. Next is head-to-head points, and the Rams outscored the Niners 45-40 to take the crown.

Seeds:

1. Packers (NFC North champs): 12-4
2. Falcons (NFC South champs): 11-5
3. Eagles (NFC East champs): 9-7
4. Rams: (NFC West champs): 7-9
5. Saints: (NFC South second place): 10-6
6. Bears (NFC North second place): 10-6

The Saints hold the expected wins tiebreaker for the five seed over the Bears, 10.1 to 9.5.

Wild Card Weekend schedule:

Saturday, January 8:

Saints-Rams, 4:30. NBC- Tom Hammond, Mike Mayock, Alex Flanagan (sideline reporter)

Sunday, January 9:

Bears-Eagles, 4:30, Fox- Joe Buck, Troy Aikman, Pam Oliver (sideline reporter), Chris Myers (sideline reporter)

Next: Back to the 1999 playoffs.

Thoughts?

 

[Garrett Garlits]

First of all, a bit of housekeeping, I think I'll stay in chronological order after all, mainly because there are just two more seasons until realignment comes in 2002. It would be very confusing for me to bounce back and forth between the old and the new, even for two years. Besides, I don't want to lose my inner Pat Summerall and Dick Enberg!

Now it's on to the first 1999 AFC Divisional Playoff from Alltel Stadium in Jacksonville. Game time temperature is 55 degrees, with fair skies and an east-northeast wind at 9 MPH.

The Jaguars scored first after Reggie Barlow's punt return set them up at their own forty-yard line. Mark Brunell completed key passes of twelve and eighteen yards to Keenan McCardell, and they eventually got as far as the Raiders' sixteen before the drive fizzled. Mike Hollis earned them three points with his thirty-three yard field goal, and they led 3-0 with 6:33 to play in the opening quarter.

The Raiders got the ball back, but they kept it for only one play, as Tyrone Wheatley fumbled the handoff from Rich Gannon, and linebacker Bryce Paup recovered for the Jags on the Oakland twenty-six. A ten-yard pass to Jimmy Smith gave them a first and goal at the ten, and three plays later from the five Hollis connected on a twenty-two yarder that gave the home squad a 6-0 lead after one quarter.

The Raiders answered with a field goal of their own on their next possession. Wheatley busted up the middle for eighteen yards, and Napoleon Kaufman fought his way off right tackle for thirteen. Rich Gannon then went to work, finding fullback/tight end Jim Ritchie for twelve yards and Tim Brown for eighteen more and a first and goal at the Jacksonville seven. Gannon was sacked for a six-yard loss by defensive end Tony Brackens on third down, which led to a thirty-two yard field goal attempt for Joe Nedney. The kick was good, and the Oakland deficit was 6-3 with 11:42 left in the first half.

The Raiders tied the game with another field goal the next time they had the ball. The drive's big play was a forty-two yard catch-and-run by tight end Rickey Dudley which gave the Silver and Black a first down at the Jags' eighteen. Two incompletions and a completion for a two-yard loss pushed the ball back to the twenty, and Nedney connected from thirty-seven yards out to tie the game at six with 8:48 left until halftime.

The Raiders took a 3-2 lead in this battle of field goals with one more before halftime. Wheatley ran a sweep to the left for eleven yards and a first down, and Gannon completed passes of sixteen yards to Dudley, sixteen more to James Jett, and twelve more to Brown. The Jags managed to stop the Raiders at their eight-yard line just before the half, but Nedney's twenty-five yarder put the visitors up 9-6 as we headed to the locker room.

The Jags tied things up after they took the second half kickoff. The key play was Brunell's forty-two yard pass to Smith, who was pushed out of bounds at the Oakland thirty-one. A thirteen-yard gain on a draw by running back James Stewart put the ball at the eighteen, but the offense could move no further. Hollis was good from thirty-five yards out, and we were tied at nine with twelve and half minutes left in the third.

The Jags finally scored the first touchdown of the game the next time they had the ball. Barlow returned a punt all the way to the Raiders' thirty-seven, Barlow also caught a ten-yard pass, and Brunell found Smith for ten more. The touchdown came from fifteen yards out, as Brunell hit a wide-open Smith in the end zone. Hollis made the extra point, and with a little over seven minutes left in the third period it was Jacksonville 16, Oakland 9.

The Jags increased their lead the next time they had the ball. Barlow returned a punt to his own forty-seven, and as we pick up Verne Lundquist's call it's first and ten from the Oakland forty-one:

"Three wide receivers and Stewart alone in the backfield for Brunell on first and ten. He's back and looking downfield...….he has a man wide opem…….it's McCardell at the fifteen, and he will go in for the touchdown! What a throw by Mark Brunell!"

Dan Dierdorf: "Mark Brunell is one of the top young quarterbacks in this league, and yet he gets very little respect. Look at this pass; it's absolutely dead on the money to a streaking McCardell, who's got Derrien Gordon beat by a good ten yards. And McCardell doesn't get the respect he should as a receiver, either."

Hollis added the extra point, and after three quarters the Jaguars led the Raiders 23-9.

One good bomb deserved another, as Gannon proved on the Raiders' next possession. Kaufman returned the kickoff all the way to the Jacksonville forty-two, and Gannon took care of the rest:

Lundquist: "First and ten from the Jaguars' forty-two. The Raiders need to take advantage of this field position to get back in the game. Four wised receivers for Gannon, who will go for everything.....Brown MAKES THE CATCH! Stumbling at the ten, still on his feet barely, but he'll score!.....How in the world did Tim Brown manage to keep his feet, Dan?"

Dierdorf: "He got his feet tangled up with free safety Carnell Lake, Number 37. There you see it, he's completely off balance, but the pass is so well-thrown by Gannon that he still manages to get under it. The rest I can't explain, and I don't know that Tim Brown could either. He's just thanking God right now."

Nedney added the extra point, and with 10:24 left in regulation the Raiders had gotten back to within 23-16.

The Jags wrapped things up with a touchdown in the final minute. It was the defense who provided it, as we learn from Verne:

"Gannon and the Raiders face a first down at their own twenty-four, with 1:24 remaining. He'll throw on first down.....has Dudley over the middle...…….PICKED OFF BY DONVAN DARIUS! He has blockers! Down the sideline, and he'll put this game away with a touchdown!...…..Thirty-four yards on the return."

Dierdorf: "Gannon tried to force the ball over the middle, and he threw it right to Darius, who outreached Ricky Dudley for the ball. Once he's got it he has everybody on the defense blocking for him, and he takes it on for the score that will put the Jaguars in the AFC Championship Game."

Hollis added one last extra point, and the Jags had wrapped up a 30-16 victory.

I lost the sim, so I don't have stats or an MVP.

The following week, the Jags hosted the Titans in the AFC Championship Game, and it belonged to the visitors from start to finish, with the final score 33-14. Steve McNair threw for just 112 yards, but rushed for 91 yards on nine carries and scored two touchdowns, while Eddie George added eighty-six yards on twenty-five carries. Yancey Thigpen caught McNair's lone touchdown pass, and the Tennessee defense sacked Brunell three times and intercepted him twice.

Brunell completed nineteen of thirty-eight for 226 yards and a touchdown, and Fred Taylor carried nineteen times for 110 yards in a losing cause. Smith caught five passes for ninety-two yards, and McCardell added sixty-seven yards on six catches. The Titans also got a kickoff return for a touchdown for the second consecutive week, this one an eighty-yarder from Derrick Mason.

The Titans will represent the AFC in Super Bowl XXXIV at the Georgia Dome in Atlanta on February 6.

Next: To be determined.

Thoughts?

 

[Garrett Garlits]

I'm going to put a virtual bookmark in the sim department temporarily in order to do something I didn't think I'd have a chance to do.

Last night when I was looking up future years' standings at Pro Football Reference, I discovered a first in the post-1970 era; a year when the playoffs in both conferences worked out exactly the same as they happened in real life. It's happened a couple of times in the NFC (although the games took place in a different order once) but never in the AFC. This has happened in my baseball and ABA timelines as well. The year in question is 2001.

We begin in the AFC East:

New England Patriots: 11-5 (0)
Miami Dolphins: 10-6 (-1)
New York Jets: 8-8 (-2)
Indianapolis Colts: 7-9 (+1)
Buffalo Bills: 4-12 (+1)

The Brady Era yields an outright division title right out of the box, as the Pats' real-life record is good enough thanks to a one-game drop by the Fins. The Jets fall off by a pair to finish right at .500 in third, while the Colts and Bills each add a game but don't move in the standings.

Now to the Central:

Pittsburgh Steelers: 12-4 (-1)
Baltimore Ravens: 9-7 (-1)
Jacksonville Jaguars: 8-8 (+2)
Cleveland Browns: 7-9 (0)
Tennessee Titans: 7-9 (0)
Cincinnati Bengals: 5-11 (-1)

The Steelers and Ravens each drop a game, which preserves the Black and Gold's three-game margin of victory. The Jags add a pair to move into third, which means that the Browns and Titans are now tied for fourth. The Bengals drop a game at the bottom to sink even further into the basement.

We go to the expected wins tiebreaker to settle the tie for fourth, and it goes to the Browns, 6.9 to 6.6.

Finally, the West:

Oakland Raiders: 10-6 (0)
Denver Broncos: 8-8 (0)
San Diego Chargers: 8-8 (+3)
Seattle Seahawks: 7-9 (-2)
Kansas City Chiefs: 7-9 (+1)

The Raiders stay where they are and claim the division title; everything else is turned upside down. First, the real-life second-place Hawks drop a pair and finish their final season in the AFC tied for last with the Chiefs, who add a game. Second, the Chargers stage a three-game improvement to move into a tie for second with the Broncos, whose record is frozen but move up as a result of Seattle's slip.

First, let's settle the tie for second using the expected wins tiebreaker. The Chargers best the Broncos, 8.3 to 8.0.

Now let's go to the tie for fourth. The Hawks and Chiefs each finish with 7.3 expected wins, so next we go to the head-to-head tiebreakers. The teams split the season series, but the Chiefs take fourth by outscoring the Hawks 37-28.

Seeds:

1. Steelers (AFC Central champs): 12-4
2. Patriots (AFC East champs): 11-5
3. Raiders (AFC West champs): 10-6
4. Dolphins (AFC East second place): 10-6
5. Ravens (AFC Central second place): 9-7
6. Jets (AFC East third place; won four-way tiebreaker with Jaguars, Broncos, and Chargers): 8-8

We have a four-way tie for the final wild card spot at 8-8 among the Jets, Jaguars, Broncos, and Chargers. We go to the expected wins tiebreaker to settle it. The Jets win it with 8.4, nipping the Jags and Chargers with 8.3. The Broncos finish fourth with 8.0.

The playoffs began at Network Associates Coliseum in Oakland on January 12, as the Raiders defeated the Jets in the first Wild Card Game 38-24. Rich Gannon completed twenty-three of his twenty-nine passes for 294 yards and a pair of touchdowns, and Jerry Rice caught nine of those passes for 183 yards and a touchdown. Running back Charlie Garner added 158 yards on fifteen carries, thus wasting a 268-yard, three-touchdown performance from the Jets' Vinny Testaverde. Wide receiver Laveranues Coles caught eight passes for 123 yards, while Curtis Martin gained 106 yards on sixteen carries in a lowing cause.

The next day at Miami's Pro Player Stadium, the Ravens upset the Dolphins 20-3. Elvis Grbac threw for just 133 yards, but completed a touchdown pass to running back Chester Taylor, while Terry Alllen added 109 yards on twenty-five carries and another score. The defense sacked Fins quarterback Jay Fielder three times and picked him off once while holding their rushing game to just fifty yards total.

On January 19, one of the most famous games in recent NFL history took place in Foxborough, as Adam Vinatieri's last-second field goal lifted the Patriots over the Raiders 16-13. This was the "tuck rule" game, where a late fumble by Tom Brady was ruled an incomplete pass even though he had brought the ball back to him after pumping to throw, The rule was changed the next year, but it was too late to help the Raiders. This took away from Brady's first-ever postseason performance in which he comleted thirty-two of fifty-two passes for 312 yards in a steady snowstorm and also ran for a touchdown. Wide receiver Davis Patten caught wight of his passes for 107 yards.

There was no such controversy the next day at Heinz Field, as the Steelers thumped the Ravens 27-10. Running back Amos Zereoue, starting in place of the injured Jerome Bettis, scored a pair of touchdowns, and wide receiver Plaxico Burress caught five passes for eighty-four yards and another score. Meanwhile, Grbac had a nightmare of a day, as he was intercepted three times and sacked three times. Shannon Sharpe caught five passes for fifty-six yards, but the running game was held to a total of twenty-two yards.

That set up the AFC Championship Game on January 27 at Heinz Field, and the Pats upset the Steelers 24-17 to earn their third Super Bowl trip to date. The Pats won in spite of having to bring in Drew Bledso to replace Brady late in the first half. Bledsoe threw a touchdown pass to Patton, and the visitors scored another touchdown on a return of a blocked field goal by Antwan Harris and a third on a punt return by Troy Brown. Brown also caught eight passes for 121 yards. Steelers quarterback Kordell Stewart threw for 264 yards and ran for forty-one more, but was also sacked three times and intercepted three times. Bettis returned from his injury but was held to just eight yards on nine carries, while Zereoue only carried four times for eleven yards. Both men scored touchdowns.

Next: We look at the NFC.

Thoughts?

 

[Garrett Garlits]

Now let's look at the NFC. We begin in the East:

Philadelphia Eagles: 12-4 (+1)
New York Giants: 7-9 (0)
Arizona Cardinals: 7-9 (0)
Washington Redskins: 6-10 (-2)
Dallas Cowboys: 5-11 (0)

The big movement here is from the Skins, whose two-game drop lands them in fourth place and elevates the Cards and Giants into a tie for second without them having to do a thing. The Eagles' one-game uptick increases their margin of victory to five. The Boys stand pa and finish in the basement.

We go to the expected wins tiebreaker to settle the tie for second, and it goes to the Giants, 7.2 to 6.6.

Now to the Central:

Chicago Bears: 12-4 (-1)
Green Bay Packers: 11-5 (-1)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 9-7 (0)
Minnesota Vikings: 5-11 (0)
Detroit Lions: 4-12 (+2)

The Bears and Pack each drop a game, which maintains the Bears' one-game margin of victory. The Bucs and Vikes each stay where they are, which in the latter case gets coach Dennis Green fired with one game left in the season in favor of eventual successor Mike Tice. In other news, the Lions' two-game upswing can't get them out of the cellar.

Now to the West:

St. Louis Rams: 13-3 (-1)
San Francisco 49ers: 11-5 (-1)
New Orleans Saints: 6-10 (-1)
Atlanta Falcons: 6-10 (-1)
Carolina Panthers: 4-12 (+3)

Everyone in this division drops a game except for the Panthers, who spike by three games to make their final record a lot more respectable, but still can't escape last place. The upswing isn't enough to save coach George Seifert's job; John Fox will take over in 2002.

Seeds:

1. Rams (NFC West champs): 13-3
2. Bears (NFC Central champs): 12-4
3. Eagles (NFC East champs): 12-4
4. Packers (NFC Central second place): 11-5
5. 49ers (NFC West second place): 11-5
6. Buccaneers (NFC Central third place): 9-7

The Packers hold the expected wins tiebreaker over the Niners for the four seed, 11.4 to 11.3.

The Eagles and Bears each finished with 12.3 expected wins. They didn't play each other, so head-to-head tiebreakers aren't applicable. Next we go to conference record. The Eagles finished 8-4 in the NFC, while the Bears finished 10-2. Therefore, the Bears are the two seed and will host the Eagles in a Divisional Playoff game.

The playoffs began on January 12 at Veterans Stadium, where the Eagles throttled the Bucs 31-9. Quarterback Donovan McNabb finished sixteen of twenty-five for 194 yards and two touchdowns, one to wide receiver Chad Lewis, the other to running back Duce Staley. Fellow running back Correll Buckhalter added a rushing touchdown, and the Eagles' defense picked off Bucs quarterback Brad Johnson four times. One of these was returned for a touchdown by safety Damon Moore. The Tampa defense managed to sack McNabb three times, and Keyshawn Johnson caught three passes for seventy-five yards in a losing cause.

The next day at Lambeau Field, the Pack turned back the Niners 25-15. Brett Favre was twenty-two of twenty-nine for 269 yards and two touchdowns, one of which was caught by Antonio Freeman, who finished with eighty-four yards on six catches. Running back Ahman Green added eighty-six yards on twenty-one carries with a touchdown. Niners quarterback Jeff Garcia threw for 233 yards in a losing effort.

The divisional round began on January 19 at Soldier Field, where the Eagles upset the Bears 33-19. McNabb finished twenty-six of forty for 262 yards and two touchdowns, and Staley gained sixty-six yards on eighteen carries and also caught seven passes for fifty-four yards and a touchdown. Wide receiver James Thrash added seventy-three yards on five catches. Meanwhile, Bears quarterbacks Shane Matthews and Jim Miller combined to throw for only eighty-nine yards; they were also sacked twice and intercepted three times. Their biggest offensive play was a forty-seven yard touchdown run by wide receiver Ahmad Merritt on a reverse. Cornerback Jerry Azumah returned an interception fifty-nine yards for another score.

The next day at the Dome at America's Center in St. Louis, the Rams torched the Pack 45-17. The defense intercepted Favre six times, with three of them turning into pick-sixes. Two of these came from cornerback Aeneas Williams, while the other was courtesy of linebacker Tommy Polley. Future Hall of Famer Marshall Faulk rushed for eighty-two yards and a touchdown on sixteen carries and also caught six passes for forty-seven yards, while wide receiver Torry Holt caught five passes for eighty-four yards and a touchdown. Quarterback Kurt Warner threw for 216 yards and two touchdowns, while Favre threw a pair of touchdowns to Freeman. Fellow wideout Corey Bradford caught five passes for seventy-nine yards, while Green carried sixteen times for ninety-four yards and caught eight passes for fifty-five.

The Rams hosted the Eagles in the NFC Championship Game the following week and escaped with a 29-24 victory and a trip to Super Bowl XXVI. Faulk churned through the Philly defense for 159 yards on thirty-one carries and two touchdowns, while wideout Isaac Bruce caught eight passes for eighty-four yards and a score. Warner finished twenty-two of thirty-three for 212 yards and a touchdown, and the Rams defense sacked McNabb three times. Donovan threw for one touchdown and ran for another, and Staley managed thirty-nine yards on eleven carries with a touchdown and also caught eight passes for fifty-eight yards.

Super Bowl XXVI took place on February 3 at the Superdome in New Orleans, and Vinateri once again kicked a last-second field goal to give the Pats a 20-17 upset victory and their first-ever Super Bowl title. Brady only threw for 145 yards on sixteen of twenty-seven passing, but running back Antowain Smith led the Pats on the ground with ninety-two yards on eighteen carries. Brown was New England's leading receiver with six catches for eighty-nine yards, and the defense sacked Warner three times and intercepted him twice, one of which was taken back for a touchdown by cornerback Ty Law. In spite of this, Warner finished twenty-eight fo forty-four for 365 yards, passing for one touchdown and rushing for another. Faulk rushed for seventy-six yards on seventeen carries and also caught four passes for fifty-four yards, and wide receiver Az-Zahir Hakim amassed ninety yards on five catches. Fellow wideout Ricky Proehl caught three passes for seventy-one yards and a score.

Brady was named Super Bowl MVP.

We've now contested thirty-four Super Bowls in the Pythagorean universe, and the NFC's all-time lead is down to 19-15.

Next: To be determined.

Thoughts?

 

[Garrett Garlits]

I've decided to see if I could find any more years where at least one of the two conferences turned out as it did in real life. I looked last night, and I've found at least one: 2006. The conference in question is the NFC. We begin in the East:

Philadelphia Eagles: 10-6 (0)
Dallas Cowboys: 10-6 (+1)
New York Giants: 8-8 (0)
Washington Redskins: 6-10 (+1)

The Boys add a game to tie the Eagles for the division crown. The Giants stay where they are to finish third, and the Skins also add a game, though they still finish with double-digit losses.

We go to the expected wins tiebreaker to settle the tie for the division crown, and both teams finish with 9.8. Next is the head-to-head tiebreaker, and the Eagles sweep the Boys to take the title.

Next, the North:

Chicago Bears: 12-4 (-1)
Minnesota Vikings: 7-9 (+1)
Green Bay Packers: 6-10 (-2)
Detroit Lions: 6-10 (+3)

The Bears drop a game, but still beat the Vikings (one-game improvement) by five. The other bog story is the two-game drop by the Pack, which takes them from second place and wild card contention into a third-place tie with the Lions, who surge by three.

We go to the expected win totals to settle the tie for third, and it goes to Green Bay, 6.2 to 5.6.

Now to the South:

New Orleans Saints: 10-6 (0)
Carolina Panthers: 7-9 (-1)
Atlanta Falcons: 7-9 (0(
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 4-12 (0)

The only movement here is a one-game drop by the Panthers, which ties them for second with the Falcons.

We go to the expected wins tiebreaker to settle the tie for second, and each team finishes with 6.9. Next we go to the head-to-head tiebreakers. The teams split their season series, but the Panthers outscored the Falcons 23-16 to take second place.

Finally, the West:

Seattle Seahawks: 8-8 (-1)
St. Louis Rams: 8-8 (0)
Arizona Cardinals: 6-10 (+1)
San Francisco 49ers: 5-11 (-2)

The Hawks drop a game to tie the Rams for the division title, while the Redbirds add a game, which allows them to leapfrog the slumping Niners (two-game drop) and move into third place.

We go to the expected wins tiebreaker to determine the division title, and it goes to the Hawks, 7.8 to 7.6.

Seeds:

1. Bears (NFC North champs) 12-4
2. Saints (NFC South champs): 10-6
3. Eagles (NFC East champs): 10-6
4. Seahawks (NFC West champs): 8-8
5. Cowboys (NFC East second place): 10-6
6. Giants (NFC East third place; won tiebreaker with Rams): 8-8

The Giants hold the expected wins tiebreaker for the six seed over the Rams, 7.8 to 7.6.

The Saints hold the expected wins tiebreaker for the two seed over the Eagles, 10.3 to 9.8.

The playoffs began on January 6, 2007 at CenturyLink Field in Seattle. Seahawks quarterback Matt Hasselbeck threw for 240 yards and a pair of touchdowns to tight end Jeramy Stevens, who ended up with seventy-even yards on five catches. One of his touchdown catches proved to be the game-winner. Wide receiver Bobby Engram gained eighty-eight yards on four receptions, and running back Shaun Alexander ground out sixty-nine yards on twenty-four carries.

The Boys got 112 yards on twenty-two carries from running back Julius Jones, and quarterback Tony Romo threw to wide receiver Patrick Crayton for a touchdown. They also got a ninety-three yard kickoff return for a touchdown from Miles Austin. But with a chance to win the game on the last play, Romo, who was acting as holder for kicker Martin Grammatica, dropped the snap on a field goal attempt. His attempt to run the ball into the end zone for the winning touchdown failed, and the Hawks escaped with a 21-20 win.

The Eagles entertained the Giants in the other Wild Card Game to following day at Lincoln Financial Field and it proved to be another nailbiter. David Akers' thirty-eight field goal with no time left gave the home squad a 23-20 victory, but the true stars of the game for the Eagles were running back Brian Westbrook, who rushed for 141 yards on twenty carries with a touchdown, and wide receiver Reggie Brown, who caught seven passes for seventy-three yards. Quarterback Jeff Garcia only threw for 153 yards on the day, with a touchdown pass to wide receiver Donte Stallworth.

The Giants had a big rushing day from Tiki Barber, who gained 137 yards on twenty-six carries. Quarterback Eli Manning completed sixteen of his twenty-seven passes for 161 yards and a pair of touchdowns wide receiver Plaxico Burress, who caught five passes for eighty-nine yards,

The Eagles moved on to the Superdome for the divisional round the following Saturday, and they came up just short against the Saints, 27-24. Westbrook had another big day, as he gained 116 yards on just thirteen carries and scored a pair of touchdowns, one of them from sixty-two yards out. Garcia was fifteen of thirty for 240 yards and a seventy-five yard touchdown to Stallworth, who had a hundred-yard receiving night on just three catches. Brown caught three more balls for seventy-six yards.

For the victorious Saints, quarterback Drew Brees was twenty of thirty-two for 243 yards and a touchdown despite being sacked three times. Tight end Billy Miller was his leading receiver with sixty-four yards on four catches, and wide receiver Marques Colston added fifty-five more yards on five catches. But the undisputed star of the day was running back Deuce McAllister, who gained 143 yards on twenty-one carries with a touchdown and also caught Brees' touchdown pass.

The scene shifted to Soldier Field the next day, where the Bears met the Hawks. Bears quarterback Rex Grossman completed twenty-one of thirty-eight passes for 282 yards, and a touchdown despite being sacked three times, and wide receiver Bernard Berrian caught that touchdown as part of a five-catch, 105-yard performance. But it was kicker Robbie Gould who was the hero, as his forty-one yard field goal with 4:24 left in regulation tied the game at twenty-four and his forty-nine yarder with 10:02 left in overtime gave the Bears a 27-24 win. Other heroes for Chicago were wide receiver Rashied Davis, who caught four passes for eighty-four yards, and running back Thomas Jones, who gained sixty-six yards on twenty-one carries and scored two touchdowns. On defense, the Bears sacked Hasselbeck three times.

For the Hawks, Hasselbeck was held to eighteen of thirty-three passing for 195 yards and a touchdown. Wide receiver Darrell Jackson was his leading receiver with four catches for forty-nine yards, and fellow wideout Deion Branch caught four more balls for forty-eight yards. Alexander had a big day on the ground in a losing cause, gaining 108 yards on twenty-six carries and scoring two touchdowns.

The NFC Championship Game took place on January 21 at Soldier Field, and the Bears dominated the Saints 39-14. The rushing game racked up 196 yards, with Jones responsible for 123 yards on nineteen carries with two touchdowns. Fellow back Cedric Benson gained sixty yards on twenty-four carries and scored another touchdown. Grossman only needed to throw twenty-six tines, completing eleven for 144 yards and a thirty-three yard touchdown to Berrian, who ended up with eighty-five yards on five catches.

The Saints wasted a fabulous passing day from Brees, who survived three sacks to complete twenty-seven of forty-nine passes for 354 yards with two touchdowns and an interception. One of the touchdowns was an eighty-eight yarder to running back Reggie Bush, who finished with 132 yards on seven catches. Colston caught five passes for sixty-three yards and the other touchdown, and fellow wideout Devery Henderson caught a pair of passes for fifty-seven yards. The bad news for the Saints was that their running game was nonexistent; they only gained fifty-six yards on twelve total attempts for the day.

Next: We turn to the AFC.

Thoughts?