The Japanese take Darwin in World War II.

[Zheng He]

Control of Darwin allows the suppression of the Townsville bomber bases and gives the Japanese air and sea superiority over the approaches to Port Moresby from the West. Port Moresby gives the Japanese the Solomons, and that leads to what the Australians feared was coming to pass in 1942:

You can't suppress a target without constant strikes and restrikes. Darwin is over 1100 miles from Townsville. Unescorted bombers flying 11 hour trip missions (cruising speed of a Betty is about 200mph) are not going to suppress anything. A combination of air defenses, weather, and navigation accidents will wipe your force out in short order.

 

[Zheng He]

Darwin is in the Northern Territories, not Queensland. Might want to double check your maps.



Except for the fact the Allies used Darwin to launch commando raids into Timor that died down 20,000 Japanese troops and, more importantly, based bombers in its environs that were used to bomb/mine NEI oil facilities, severely limiting Japanese imports.

I'm not letting that top comment go. If he misstated something fine, but you are the last person on this forum who should be telling anyone to double check a map.

 

[History Learner]

No 1 Squadron Lockheed Hudsons - Singapore
No 2 Squadron Lockheed Hudsons - Darwin
No 3 Squadron P40s - Med
No 4 Squadron Wirraways - Canberra (note that a Wirraway pilot of No 4 Squadron shot a Zero down over New Guinea in 1942)
No 5 Squadron Wirraways - Melbourne
No 6 Squadron Lockheed Hudsons - Melbourne
No 7 Squadron Training with Hudsons- Melbourne
No 8 Squadron Lockheed Hudsons - Disbanded on Batavia
No 9 Squadron Various Amphibians - on RAN Cruisers
No 10 Squadron - ASW duties in Britain
No 11 Squadron Catalinas - Port Moresby
No 12 Squadron Wirraways - Darwin
No 13 Squadron Lockheed Hudsons - Darwin
No 14 Squadron Lockheed Hudsons - Perth
No 22 Squadron Wirraways - Richmond NSW
No 23 Squadron Wirraways / Hudsons - Brisbane
No 24 Squadron Wirraways / Hudsons - Rabual
No 25 Squadron Wirraways / Buffalos - Perth
No 30 Squadron Beaufighters (forming March) - Townsville
No 75 Squadron Kittyhawks (formed March) - Townsville
No 76 Squadron Kittyhawks (formed March) - Townsville
No 77 Squadron Kittyhawks (formed March) - Darwin

US 49th Fighter Group - Darwin
US 8th Fighter Group - Townsville

So patrol boats, trainer aircraft, recon aircraft, and units destroyed/disbanded in the NEI and the Med mean what, exactly? Nor does the fact squadrons exist on paper mean anything:

Port Moresby (fig 3) was the last AOB not occupied by the enemy. It was essentially an enclave now surrounded by enemy forces in Northern New Guinea, Rabaul, and the NEI to the west. 12 Catalina flying boats, four QANTAS flying boats, 12 Hudsons, and a handful of Wirraways were all that stood up to the growing Japanese air strength at Rabaul. The RAAF desperately sought to reinforce Port Moresby with reconnaissance, bomber, and fighter aircraft to counter daily enemy attacks and to support the Australian Army in eastern New Guinea. On 14 Mar ‘42 the first RAAF Kittyhawk squadron with 17 aircraft was established and moved to Port Moresby. The Kittyhawks of No. 75 Squadron engaged enemy forces daily. They provided air defense for Allied forces at Port Moresby and conducted raids on enemy airfields in the Rabaul area. On 30 April with 3 aircraft left, No. 75 squadron was relieved of the responsibility for the air defense of Port Moresby by two American P-39 Airacobra squadrons. “For the first time, the enemy encountered capable fighter opposition in the SWPA. No. 75 Squadron had flown 638 combat hours, destroyed 35 enemy aircraft and damaged 22 in the first fortnight.”1

For your convenience, I've underlined the Wirraway equipped groups who were used as provisional fighters as well as bolded the fighter groups, including the Americans that arrived in March, who were in Australia. Note that the Japanese were still invading the NEI during the first few months of 1942 so there wasn't anything available to invade Darwin until after April 1942 - and it may have been late April or May after the ships which took part in the Indian Ocean raid were available. Unless you are proposing the Japanese bypass parts of the NEI to grab Darwin earlier?

The Japanese had 20,000 troops ready to invade Darwin in February in exchange for delaying the occupation of Timor. Given the Australians had already decided to pull out before the Japanese even landed, no real change.

By the way, the Wirraway was a 100 mph slower than either the Ki-43 and A6M, was out climbed at around double the rate it could achieve and even it's empty weight was heavier than the fully loaded wait of the Ki-43; the Australians attempting to rely on it is asking for a bloodbath.

Nothing other than multiple RAAF bomber squadrons noted above and these US bombers, note that I did not include US bomber groups and fighter groups above that technically were stationed in Australia after they withdrew from the Philippines during this time frame as those groups were ground down from the fighting at the beginning of the year:

US 3d Operations Group B-25 (arrived April) - Darwin
US 22d Operations Group B-26 (arrived March) - Townsville
US 38th Bombardment Group B-27 (arrived February) - Brisbane

The Australians didn't achieve air superiority over their entire territory until late 1943/early 1944 even with Darwin.

I

f Japan couldn't 'control the approaches' to Port Moresby from a far closer airbase (Rabual - 800 km) how the heck are bombers from Darwin (1800 km) going to do it? Note that the Japanese bombers would be unescorted but the US and Australian fighters could interdict them from Townsville, Port Moresby and Cairns (if they hardened the runway earlier there).

Because Japanese bombers based in Darwin can suppress Townsville while Japanese fighters give them air superiority on the sea lanes to Port Moresby from the East.

 

[History Learner]

I'm not letting that top comment go. If he misstated something fine, but you are the last person on this forum who should be telling anyone to double check a map.

Unless I'm misunderstanding what he wrote, he pretty much asserted Darwin is several hundred miles away in the completely opposite Australian territory of Queensland instead of the Northern Territory. That's a pretty big error.

 

[NOMISYRRUC]

Yes although after May 1942, Japanese raids against Darwin were either nuisance raids at night or daylight raids that got chewed up robust Allied air defenses.

That's not quite what I meant. Which was...

Japanese raids from Darwin on other targets in Australia would be no more than a nuisance.

But instead of being shot down by robust Allied air defences over Darwin the Japanese bombers would be shot down by robust Allied air defences over the targets they were bombing from Darwin.

 

[Zheng He]

That's not quite what I meant. Which was...

Japanese raids from Darwin on other targets in Australia would not be more than a nuisance.

But instead of being shot down by robust Allied air defences over Darwin the Japanese bombers would be shot down by robust Allied air defences over the targets they were bombing from Darwin.

Totally concur with that.

 

[Zheng He]

Because Japanese bombers based in Darwin can suppress Townsville while Japanese fighters give them air superiority on the sea lanes to Port Moresby from the East.

How are flimsy, unescorted Japanese bombers flying 11 hour round trip missions going to generate enough continuous combat power against Townsville and other bases in order to keep them suppressed? Please explain that using data and examples of similar success in other areas in similar situations. Also note that Allied air defenses will get stronger as soon as the Japanese strike those bases. The 49th Fighter Group for example which went to Darwin OTL and did quite well against escorted raids could easily go to Townsville instead where they will eat unescorted Japanese raids alive.

 

[Look More Closely Later]

And there's no airbases on Timor to support such a move that I am aware and long term the timetable is only altered; nothing proposed saves Singapore or the rest of the NEI, meaning Timor is just going to be conquered later. The Australians had actually already made the decision to abandon Timor before the Japanese even landed on it.

Do you think that in the real world there would be a usable airbase in Darwin by the time the dust from your proposed Imperial Japanese invasion finishes fighting, let alone one conveniently sized and equipped to maintain Imperial Japanese aircraft?
If you're prepared to handwave an airbase capable of maintaining dozens of Imperial Japanese bombers in Darwin, it seems to me fair to handwave one on Bali and/or Timor for an Allied bombing campaign - unless you're insisting that special rules must apply for the Imperial Japanese, and for the Imperial Japanese only?
Wikipedia, for what it's worth, tells me that in the original timeline the Australians were still fighting in Timor until February 1943 (see wikipedia: 'Battle of Timor'). If you have a source which says that the Australians had been pulled out of Timor before the original timeline Imperial Japanese invasion in February of 1942, I would appreciate it if you could indicate what it is, and where it can be found online - if indeed it can.

 

[History Learner]

Do you think that in the real world there would be a usable airbase in Darwin by the time the dust from your proposed Imperial Japanese invasion finishes fighting, let alone one conveniently sized and equipped to maintain Imperial Japanese aircraft? If you're prepared to handwave an airbase capable of maintaining dozens of Imperial Japanese bombers in Darwin, it seems to me fair to handwave one on Bali and/or Timor for an Allied bombing campaign - unless you're insisting that special rules must apply for the Imperial Japanese, and for the Imperial Japanese only?

Yes, because there isn't going to be any sort of protracted fight for Darwin in February of 1942 and we know the existing airfield on site was sufficient for B-17s and B-25s/26s, so more than sufficient for Japanese bombers.

Wikipedia, for what it's worth, tells me that in the original timeline the Australians were still fighting in Timor until February 1943 (see wikipedia: 'Battle of Timor'). If you have a source which says that the Australians had been pulled out of Timor before the original timeline Imperial Japanese invasion in February of 1942, I would appreciate it if you could indicate what it is, and where it can be found online if indeed it can.

Here:

With Ambon occupied, the Japanese quickly turned their attention to Timor. Capturing Timor would bring land-based airpower within range of the main Allied staging base in northern Australia: Darwin. On 30 Jan ‘42, the same day the enemy occupied Ambon, a devastating air strike was conducted on the RAAF base at Koepang, Timor. Again with no fighter or ground defenses to provide defense and no early warning, the RAAF paid the price. Three Hudsons were destroyed on the ground. A QANTAS flying boat evacuating woman and children was shot down trying to take off. The Hudsons were dispersed between two bases, Koepang in the west and Dili in the east of Timor. Despite twice-daily enemy attacks, the Hudsons continued armed reconnaissance missions, without fighter escort, to Kendari and Menado to monitor enemy movements at their bases to the north on Celebes (fig 1).

Realizing the importance of Timor, the Chiefs of Staff ordered a reinforcement of Timor with 2 AIF battalions. The convoy taking the AIF to Timor came under enemy air surveillance as soon as it departed Darwin. Midway through the voyage, the convoy came under attack by 35 bombers and 9 flying boats. Luckily none of the ships were hit, but the convoy decided to return to Darwin. The Japanese reconnaissance of Timor now increased unhindered, some dropping leaflets ordering the natives not to aid the Allies and threatening anyone who conducted demolition work. The RAAF decided to evacuate on 18 Feb ‘42. Enemy forces landed at Koepang and Dili on the evening of 18 Feb before all RAAF personnel could be evacuated by armed Hudsons. 29 RAAF personnel evaded in the Timor jungle for over 2 months before the American submarine Searaven conducted the rescue operation.

The RAAF’s strategy for a forward surveillance system had collapsed. Air reconnaissance had proved worthy of its role by identifying enemy movements, but the RAAF did not posses the force to defend against the attacks in the forward area. The RAAF inputs to the United States Strategic Bombing Survey after the war contributed the defeat in the NEI to: “1. Japanese superiority in number and type of aircraft, 2. Enemy sea supremacy and, 3. Lack of fighter cover for aerodrome defense.”4

 

[Chris Triangle]

Anything even resembling a sustained bombing campaign out of Darwin was never going to be on the table but I if the Japanese could manage to get an airfield up and running quickly, I suppose they might be able to pull off a few sporadic nuisance raids on minor targets. Like a frilled lizard, they could appear to be a more menacing threat than they really are. Keep in mind that in the earlier days of the war, the Allies often greatly overestimated the Japanese threat and built massive defenses even in places where the threat of actual invasion was nil. In this way, the bombers could theoretically be used as a tool to goad the Allies into prioritizing and expediting their counteroffensive towards Darwin, thereby diverting a chunk of Australia's resources to this remote and isolated region against a much lesser Japanese defending force force.

Otherwise, the proposed planes, fuel and crews would be of much better use elsewhere in other, more important duties. What air forces they could maintain in Darwin in the face of Allied bombing raids and limited supplies should be very busy with other duties, not the least of which being reconnaissance.

 

[nbcman]

So patrol boats, trainer aircraft, recon aircraft, and units destroyed/disbanded in the NEI and the Med mean what, exactly? Nor does the fact squadrons exist on paper mean anything:

Hudsons were capable of sinking Japanese merchant ships - that don't have fighter coverage. Why are you not acknowledging the four squadrons of RAAF fighters as well as the US fighters who would be available in March? Lastly, what are you trying to state in your citation? The Wirraway and Hudson squadrons that were effectively destroyed weren't listed. I see that you are citing the fates of the RAAF units n the NEI, Malaya, Rabual and other locations.

The Japanese had 20,000 troops ready to invade Darwin in February in exchange for delaying the occupation of Timor. Given the Australians had already decided to pull out before the Japanese even landed, no real change.

By the way, the Wirraway was a 100 mph slower than either the Ki-43 and A6M, was out climbed at around double the rate it could achieve and even it's empty weight was heavier than the fully loaded wait of the Ki-43; the Australians attempting to rely on it is asking for a bloodbath.

OK. So what units will Japan use instead to occupy Timor since they are now in Darwin? Probably have to come from hundreds of kms away by ship - and now there is a great demand for Japanese shipping to invade and maintain a base in Darwin. Where are the merchant ships coming from to invade Timor from let alone the troops?

The Wirraways were capable of shooting down unescorted Japanese bombers - clearly they aren't capable of going up against the latest generation Japanese fighters. But I doubt that Japan could get enough aircraft in Darwin to contest

The Australians didn't achieve air superiority over their entire territory until late 1943/early 1944 even with Darwin.

What does that have to do with your claim that there weren't more than 20 modern fighters in Australia in early 1942? Multiple RAAF squadrons plus US Fighters available in March isn't early enough in 1942 for you?

Because Japanese bombers based in Darwin can suppress Townsville while Japanese fighters give them air superiority on the sea lanes to Port Moresby from the East.

So Japan is going to put enough bombers and fighters in Darwin to 'suppress' Townsville plus give them superiority across an almost 1100 km stretch of ocean - plus provide air coverage to the exposed supply route to Darwin since the Japanese bypassed Timor? Where are all these aircraft coming from? Plus the Construction units to rebuild the air base at Darwin that would have been damaged during the invasion plus expand it to accommodate this aerial armada? Plus the rice, bullets, bombs and gas for them? Plus find enough shipping to meet the demands of every other theater when Japan only had enough shipping for 40% of their pre-war needs. Good luck.

 

[Zheng He]

Also, what 20000 troops did the Japanese have allocated to invade Darwin? The historical invasion of Timor was conducted by a single regiment from the 38th Infantry Division and a single SNLF battalion (3 Yokosuka). The 48th Infantry Division was busy on Java through March and was probably in need of some rest after constant campaigning in the Philippines and the DEI since the start of the war and it eventually went to Timor in August.

 

[History Learner]

Hudsons were capable of sinking Japanese merchant ships - that don't have fighter coverage. Why are you not acknowledging the four squadrons of RAAF fighters as well as the US fighters who would be available in March? Lastly, what are you trying to state in your citation? The Wirraway and Hudson squadrons that were effectively destroyed weren't listed. I see that you are citing the fates of the RAAF units n the NEI, Malaya, Rabual and other locations.

Hudsons indeed can but the Japanese landings are going to be supported by far too much airpower to be endangered by such. As for fighters, they were only able to deploy one operational squadron into Port Moresby in March although by April they were able to deploy two P-39 squadrons; that gives about a month or two of actual bombing without much in the way of resistance at first. I do agree with everyone in this thread that eventually the Aussies/Americans will gain air control over the cities on the Eastern Coast.

OK. So what units will Japan use instead to occupy Timor since they are now in Darwin? Probably have to come from hundreds of kms away by ship - and now there is a great demand for Japanese shipping to invade and maintain a base in Darwin. Where are the merchant ships coming from to invade Timor from let alone the troops?

Yamashita proposed using at most a single division in the invasion, most of which would be withdrawn leaving a brigade to garrison the area. So, essentially IOTL forces.

The Wirraways were capable of shooting down unescorted Japanese bombers - clearly they aren't capable of going up against the latest generation Japanese fighters. But I doubt that Japan could get enough aircraft in Darwin to contest

Sure, but the max speed of the Wirraway is 220 mph while the cruising speed of the Beatty is 196 and max speed is 265 mph. Couple that with the limited weapons onboard the Wirraway, and it's clear it isn't going to be much help.

What does that have to do with your claim that there weren't more than 20 modern fighters in Australia in early 1942? Multiple RAAF squadrons plus US Fighters available in March isn't early enough in 1942 for you?

At the time of the expected Japanese landing in February, there isn't and for about a month after.

So Japan is going to put enough bombers and fighters in Darwin to 'suppress' Townsville plus give them superiority across an almost 1100 km stretch of ocean - plus provide air coverage to the exposed supply route to Darwin since the Japanese bypassed Timor? Where are all these aircraft coming from? Plus the Construction units to rebuild the air base at Darwin that would have been damaged during the invasion plus expand it to accommodate this aerial armada? Plus the rice, bullets, bombs and gas for them? Plus find enough shipping to meet the demands of every other theater when Japan only had enough shipping for 40% of their pre-war needs. Good luck.

Timor was already being evacuated before the Japanese landing and could literally be occupied the very next day after the Japanese complete their landings off Darwin and a battle at Darwin simply isn't going to happen because there were no real defenses in place. With Darwin taken out, there are no airfields nearby for the Americans/Australians to contest Japanese control of the sea lanes to Port Moresby, opening it up to an invasion. Perhaps saying "suppressed" was too strong a word, but the point with that is the threat will tie down Allied fighters as well as likely inflict damage enough in the early days. This is critical, as Port Moresby desperately needed modern fighter defenses and was largely dependent on aerial resupply. Come March/April, Coral Sea is avoided and the Japanese take Port Moresby.

 

[trurle]

Removing Darwin forces the Allies out of New Guinea and the Solomons which, in addition to airbases around Darwin itself, threaten much of the logistics stream to Australia. I don't think the Japanese will be able to cut it off but, combined with Australia political will being focused on liberating Australian soil first, will keep the Aussies from doing much else in the Pacific for a time and renders the place useless as a strategic base.

No, Darwin is exactly in the wrong place for interception of convoys, theoretically controlling the route already controlled by Japanese Kupang airbase. Horn Island (which Japanese extensively bombed IOTL) was much more relevant to the New Guinean campaign too.
To summarize, capturing Darwin has very few benefits for Japanese - unless you expect Australians to be extremely passive for some reasons (like nearly-negotiated separate peace treaty).

 

[History Learner]

Also, what 20000 troops did the Japanese have allocated to invade Darwin? The historical invasion of Timor was conducted by a single regiment from the 38th Infantry Division and a single SNLF battalion (3 Yokosuka). The 48th Infantry Division was busy on Java through March and was probably in need of some rest after constant campaigning in the Philippines and the DEI since the start of the war and it eventually went to Timor in August.

Allow me to make a correction on myself: I confused the number of Japanese troops rotated through Timor fighting commandos with the invasion force of Timor. So, it's not 20,000 but the historical force used to invade Timor. My apologies.

 

[History Learner]

No, Darwin is exactly in the wrong place for interception of convoys, theoretically controlling the route already controlled by Japanese Kupang airbase. Horn Island (which Japanese extensively bombed IOTL) was much more relevant to the New Guinean campaign too.
To summarize, capturing Darwin has very few benefits for Japanese - unless you expect Australians to be extremely passive for some reasons (like nearly-negotiated separate peace treaty).

Capturing Darwin has several benefits, particularly in early 1942:

1. With Darwin in Japanese hands, air raids against the NEI is impossible.
2. Without Darwin, the Australians can't launch commando raids into Timor tying down Japanese formations there.
3. Control of the western sea lanes towards Port Moresby, avoiding Coral Sea.
4. Japanese bombers based in Darwin can tie down Allied fighters that need to go to Port Moresby to prevent it from getting overrun.

 

[Zheng He]

Capturing Darwin has several benefits, particularly in early 1942:

1. With Darwin in Japanese hands, air raids against the NEI is impossible.
2. Without Darwin, the Australians can't launch commando raids into Timor tying down Japanese formations there.
3. Control of the western sea lanes towards Port Moresby, avoiding Coral Sea.
4. Japanese bombers based in Darwin can tie down Allied fighters that need to go to Port Moresby to prevent it from getting overrun.

The first two sort of. Raids against Timor won't happen but raids against NEI did not happen until later in the war from a variety of locations that had nothing from Darwin. Commando raids can still be launched, they will be much harder, although raids against Darwin will likely have higher priority. The second two are pure nonsense based on simply looking at the distances. The bases you claim Darwin threatens were just as threatened by Japanese possession of New Britain and the northern coast of PNG and they really weren't threatened much, again due to tyranny of distance. Simply looking at a map and plotting distances is not hard.

You continue to belabor your points without backing them up with any evidence. You have been provided with a number of counter arguments that do have actual evidence and facts and you refuse to even acknowledge those points. Frankly, I think you made your initial arguments without putting much thought into them or even looking at distances on a map and now that your arguments have been torn apart you don't want to admit it so you continue to dig your heels and just rehash the same lines over and over again.

 

[Look More Closely Later]

Yes, because there isn't going to be any sort of protracted fight for Darwin in February of 1942 and we know the existing airfield on site was sufficient for B-17s and B-25s/26s, so more than sufficient for Japanese bombers.



Here:

Your actual article indicates that the Imperial Japanese considered it necessary to try to intimidate people not to carry out demolition work (edited - correction) for the Allies, so apparently the original timeline Imperial Japanese thought that this could be a problem.
Your article also says that in February that the air force was moving out of the bases on Timor at that time - not that troops on the ground were pulling out, and that indeed the Allies recognised the importance of Timor and wanted to put more troops into Timor (but a convoy which was sent out experienced harassment by aerial attack and the captain in charge decided to return to base.)

So, you have established that for the purposes of your scenario there has never been any Allied airbase on Timor (even though your own sources say that in the original timeline there was at least one at Koepang; and there may possibly even have been another at Dili if the place there which Hudsons were 'dispersed to' was an airbase.)
You have established that the Imperial Japanese will capture and own an airbase in Darwin suited perfectly to their bomber planes which will see no damage from fighting to capture Darwin and this will be in despite of that even your own source indicates that the original timeline Japanese considered it necessary to try to intimidate locals on Timor not to carry out demolition work.
You have established that there will be no Allied soldiers on Timor in your scenario, even though Wikipedia's article on 'The Battle of Timor' says that in the original timeline there were until February 1943 and your own source says that the Allies were trying to reinforce the island with more troops, even if they thought that withdrawing the air-force was a good idea for reasons unstated. (Since your source states the original timeline evacuation was overrun by the incoming Imperial Japanese invasion, I'm going to guess that the reason for the attempted original timeline evacuation of the air-force from Timor was 'The Imperial Japanese are literally on the beach - time to get the air-force staff out!' and that anything short of an actual Imperial Japanese invasion would not have resulted in the air-force trying to leave.)
So: basically, 'special rules for Imperial Japan!' in your scenario.

 

[Zheng He]

Perhaps saying "suppressed" was too strong a word, but the point with that is the threat will tie down Allied fighters as well as likely inflict damage enough in the early days. This is critical, as Port Moresby desperately needed modern fighter defenses and was largely dependent on aerial resupply. Come March/April, Coral Sea is avoided and the Japanese take Port Moresby.

So the 49th Fighter Group that went to Darwin is now available for the defense of other parts of Australia where they will kick ass and take names just like OTL. No. 75 Squadron of the RAAF which was at Townsville and other bases in the area from May through July of 1942 and No. 76 Squadron of the RAAF also spent time at Townsville from early May to late July 1942. How many more fighter squadrons do you need to defend against unescorted Japanese bombers?

 

[Zheng He]

So: basically, 'special rules for Imperial Japan!' in your scenario.

Yeah, it's called Skippy the Alien Space Bat plays for the Japanese team.