A half dozen radar stations and airstrips will degrade any threat fairly quickly.
It doesn't take much to down a Nell, Betty or Sally. Zeros will be hard pressed to reach these targets.
The infrastructure in QLD beats the Japanese sea route to Darwin. The defensive assets on the east coast will be able to build up to a level to suppress raids from Darwin faster than the reverse.
The biggest advantage is that it takes the DEI off the front line.
The Japanese failed to suppress Port Moresby from Lae.
They'll have to leapfrog build them up the coasts of Australia under constant Japanese air attack; it's going to take months at best and probably not until 1943 or perhaps even 1944 at worst, especially given the U.S. will be more interested in a Central Pacific thrust without MacArthur.
Sure, except for the fact there is no more than twenty American P-40s and only 17 heavy anti-aircraft guns in Australia for the next few months.
Yes, because they couldn't separate the link to Australia. Occupying Darwin does exactly that.
No it doesn't because all of the targets you are listing are well beyond fighter range meaning the Japanese bombers flying out of Darwin will be make very long range unescorted raids.
They may achieve a few initial successes through surprise but eventually they will get chewed to pieces by Allied air defenses and the brutal operating environment. Additionally, maintaining a robust bomber force at Darwin will be logistically challenging. The Japanese will have to bring in all of the fuel, bombs, engines, spare parts, and everything else in order to maintain a force of fewer than 100 bombers (they never had that many Rabual). They will suffer low in commission rates (something that plagued Japanese at forward bases just about everywhere) and high attrition rates because they will be making unescorted raids and unescorted raids tended to get beaten up badly.
BTW, Rabual is closer to Brisbane than Darwin and it is less than 100 miles further to Sydney. The Japanese did not raid those ports from Rabual, why is their possession of Darwin suddenly such a game changer in this regard?
Meanwhile, the oil in the Dutch East Indies is burning, because you cancelled the invasions of Bali and Timor to run this Darwin thing, and even if you find the shipping and logistics and luck to make the Darwin thing work, Bali and Timor are actually closer and handier for the Allies to use for bombing Dutch East Indies oil than Darwin is...The Japanese don't have to move South, as naval and air units operating from the area do it for them.Japanese bombers based in Darwin could've hit any target in Queensland all the way to Brisbane, including the docks in the aforementioned Brisbane and Townsville where war supplies were shipped, while in the west they could hit any target down to Exmouth, threatening the air link to India. Control of Darwin means New Guinea cannot be held since Port Moresby is cut off, and thus the Solomons as well. No overland invasion of Darwin is practical, given the sheer distance of desert that must be crossed; it'd take years to build the airbases and infrastructure to support such. An amphibious invasion is much the same, as attacking from the east would require advancing into the narrow Torres strait while the Japanese have air superiority thanks to Darwin and Ambon, while the Solomons and lack of airbases on the West would also mean combating Japanese air superiority or waiting at least until sometime in 1943 to get the air bases needed.
The Japanese failed to suppress Port Moresby from Lae.
I don't see how because AFAIK Port Moresby wasn't supplied via Darwin, it was supplied via ports on Australia's east coast.Yes, because they couldn't separate the link to Australia. Occupying Darwin does exactly that.
I don't see how because AFAIK Port Moresby wasn't supplied via Darwin, it was supplied via ports on Australia's east coast.
Japanese bombers based at Darwin might be able to reach ports in Queensland and New South Wales, but my suspicion is that the Japanese won't be able to deploy enough to be more than a nuisance regardless of the weakness of Australia's AA defences at the time.
Meanwhile, the oil in the Dutch East Indies is burning, because you cancelled the invasions of Bali and Timor to run this Darwin thing, and even if you find the shipping and logistics and luck to make the Darwin thing work, Bali and Timor are actually closer and handier for the Allies to use for bombing Dutch East Indies oil than Darwin is...
No 1 Squadron Lockheed Hudsons - SingaporeWith what? There are only 17 heavy AA guns and about twenty modern fighters in Australia in early 1942.
As stated, the Allies have nothing to throw at Japanese bombers for several months and any logistical strain is more than made up for by the fact B-17s and B-24s staging out of the Darwin area can't bomb/mine oil facilities in Indonesia nor launch commando raids into Timor that tied down 20,000 Japanese soldiers.
Because now they don't have Darwin or Port Moresby in their way, and now directly control the approaches to Port Moresby.
You already established that for the purposes of this discussion that air bases and bomber availability is simply assumed, with your assertion that the Imperial Japanese can run dozens and dozens of bombers out of Darwin...With what air bases, what bombers and what forces to even maintain Allied control of Timor in the first place?
For a pretty good contemporary example, see the shutting down of summertime convoys on the Northern route to the USSR in 1942; Allied planners aren't going to risk sending convoys to New Guinea when the Japanese are already entrenched with air bases at both Darwin and in the Solomons.
With what air bases, what bombers and what forces to even maintain Allied control of Timor in the first place?
That's a pretty bad contemporary example IMHO.For a pretty good contemporary example, see the shutting down of summertime convoys on the Northern route to the USSR in 1942; Allied planners aren't going to risk sending convoys to New Guinea when the Japanese are already entrenched with air bases at both Darwin and in the Solomons.
With what? There are only 17 heavy AA guns and about twenty modern fighters in Australia in early 1942.
As stated, the Allies have nothing to throw at Japanese bombers for several months and any logistical strain is more than made up for by the fact B-17s and B-24s staging out of the Darwin area can't bomb/mine oil facilities in Indonesia nor launch commando raids into Timor that tied down 20,000 Japanese soldiers.
Because now they don't have Darwin or Port Moresby in their way, and now directly control the approaches to Port Moresby.
I wasn't able to put this in my last reply for time reasons.For a pretty good contemporary example, see the shutting down of summertime convoys on the Northern route to the USSR in 1942; Allied planners aren't going to risk sending convoys to New Guinea when the Japanese are already entrenched with air bases at both Darwin and in the Solomons.