The Japanese take Darwin in World War II.

[Zheng He]

BTW, I would love to see someone write a well written, well researched, and realistic TL on this subject. I would gladly be an active reader and help out where needed. I do think it is an interesting subject.

 

[Look More Closely Later]

So: basically, 'special rules for Imperial Japan!' in your scenario.

Yeah, it's called Skippy the Alien Space Bat plays for the Japanese team.

Well: at the very least 'pre-1942 points of departure required...'
The scenario History Learner is actually presenting is one he/she has quoted from a banned member, so unless History Learner is a sock-puppet for the banned member which has somehow slipped through the net (which I think unlikely) I don't think that History Learner is in a good position to try to modify or adapt the scenario - or to provide necessary clarification where that might resolve issues. (edit) He/she is effectively trying to defend someone else's work...

 

[trurle]

Capturing Darwin has several benefits, particularly in early 1942:

1. With Darwin in Japanese hands, air raids against the NEI is impossible.
2. Without Darwin, the Australians can't launch commando raids into Timor tying down Japanese formations there.
3. Control of the western sea lanes towards Port Moresby, avoiding Coral Sea.
4. Japanese bombers based in Darwin can tie down Allied fighters that need to go to Port Moresby to prevent it from getting overrun.

All you receive is much worse air raids and commando raids against Darwin. The basic rule of offensive is "do not capture something you cannot hold", and Darwin capture violates that tactics. Regarding tying down Allied fighters, they will be tied for a week or so, until all Japanese aircraft in Darwin will be destroyed or disabled. You simply cannot keep Japanese Darwin airbase operational for long with 10-times length difference of supply arm.

 

[History Learner]

The first two sort of. Raids against Timor won't happen but raids against NEI did not happen until later in the war from a variety of locations that had nothing from Darwin. Commando raids can still be launched, they will be much harder, although raids against Darwin will likely have higher priority.

Commando raids are completely impossible beyond anything occasional given the sheer distance from the nearest Australian bases. Air raids too, there simply are no airfields anywhere close enough, and the Japanese have air superiority. As for the raids themselves, they began in August of 1943.

The second two are pure nonsense based on simply looking at the distances. The bases you claim Darwin threatens were just as threatened by Japanese possession of New Britain and the northern coast of PNG and they really weren't threatened much, again due to tyranny of distance. Simply looking at a map and plotting distances is not hard.

Darwin secures the Western approaches to Port Moresby and ties down Allied fighters defending Australian cities.

You continue to belabor your points without backing them up with any evidence. You have been provided with a number of counter arguments that do have actual evidence and facts and you refuse to even acknowledge those points. Frankly, I think you made your initial arguments without putting much thought into them or even looking at distances on a map and now that your arguments have been torn apart you don't want to admit it so you continue to dig your heels and just rehash the same lines over and over again.

I've made multiple book citations while you nor anyone else has to me yet. To claim I've not used evidence is to have not bothered to read what I've posted.

 

[Zheng He]

In a ATL where the Japanese take Darwin and use it as a base to bomb other locations in Australia, for a good primer on how that goes, I suggest taking a look at this:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_raids_on_Australia,_1942–43

You'll notice that the Japanese campaign against the Northern Territories was not that intense on a day to day basis. In fact after March 1942 they tended to only launch about five or so raids a month (July and August it was nine) and after June 1942 most of the raids were at night. Those raids were coming from Timor which was less than 500 miles away where at least daylight raids enjoyed fighter escort.

Any Japanese air campaign from Darwin will be even less intense and therefore less impressive because the bombers will be flying unescorted missions over much greater distances.

 

[History Learner]

All you receive is much worse air raids and commando raids against Darwin. The basic rule of offensive is "do not capture something you cannot hold", and Darwin capture violates that tactics. Regarding tying down Allied fighters, they will be tied for a week or so, until all Japanese aircraft in Darwin will be destroyed or disabled. You simply cannot keep Japanese Darwin airbase operational for long with 10-times length difference of supply arm.

Which is a major benefit for Japan to have the Allies wasting resources attempting to retake Darwin instead of bombing oil facilities in NEI. As for the ability of the Japanese to hold Darwin, it's extremely easy, as Yamashita noted, they could leave as little as a brigade to defend the outpost and Darwin is about a day's sail from Timor which the Japanese sustained 12,000 troops on.

 

[Zheng He]

Commando raids are completely impossible beyond anything occasional given the sheer distance from the nearest Australian bases. Air raids too, there simply are no airfields anywhere close enough, and the Japanese have air superiority. As for the raids themselves, they began in August of 1943.



Darwin secures the Western approaches to Port Moresby and ties down Allied fighters defending Australian cities.



I've made multiple book citations while you nor anyone else has to me yet. To claim I've not used evidence is to have not bothered to read what I've posted.

But there are other locations to launch raids from, it's simply a matter of making adjustments. If the Japanese are sitting in Darwin the Allies probably build up Exmouth Gulf a lot more than they did OTL and they could bomb Balikpapan from there or they could even build up the facilities in Broome. They could assign B-24s to the Cocos Islands sooner than the did OTL (granted that did not happen until August 1945) but there is no reason facilities there could not get built up sooner if somebody felt it was necesssary. Exmouth Gulf and the Cocos Islands are a couple hundred miles further but if the Allies deem it to be important enough they will do it.B-29s can raid from Ceylon which they did OTL, granted later than August 1943 but again the point is, the Allies had other options if Darwin is not available. This also assumes they will not have taken care of the problem but late summer of 1943.

Darwin secures the Western approaches to Port Moresby and ties down Allied fighters defending Australian cities.

Only in your ASB world. The fighters are available from the ones that were used to defend Darwin OTL and the distances are too great for the Japanese to sustain a campaign.​

 

[History Learner]

Your actual article indicates that the Imperial Japanese considered it necessary to try to intimidate people not to carry out demolition work (edited - correction) for the Allies, so apparently the original timeline Imperial Japanese thought that this could be a problem.

More of a matter of not wanting to lose infrastructure. The Dutch sabotaged oil facilities at Balikpapan prior to this.

Your article also says that in February that the air force was moving out of the bases on Timor at that time - not that troops on the ground were pulling out, and that indeed the Allies recognised the importance of Timor and wanted to put more troops into Timor (but a convoy which was sent out experienced harassment by aerial attack and the captain in charge decided to return to base.)

Yes, air support had been withdrawn and reinforcement/resupply was no longer possible. That right there eliminates any strategic value to the island in of itself and the 1,300 remaining AIF could be easily disposed of later.

So, you have established that for the purposes of your scenario there has never been any Allied airbase on Timor (even though your own sources say that in the original timeline there was at least one at Koepang; and there may possibly even have been another at Dili if the place there which Hudsons were 'dispersed to' was an airbase.)

No, I established there was no bomber fields I know of and that regardless of that, it's going to fall to the Japanese easily at a later date.

You have established that the Imperial Japanese will capture and own an airbase in Darwin suited perfectly to their bomber planes which will see no damage from fighting to capture Darwin and this will be in despite of that even your own source indicates that the original timeline Japanese considered it necessary to try to intimidate locals on Timor not to carry out demolition work.

They warned them as a precautionary measure nor was it in anyway an issue to prevent a Japanese landing; they just didn't want to lose facilities they wanted to occupy.

You have established that there will be no Allied soldiers on Timor in your scenario, even though Wikipedia's article on 'The Battle of Timor' says that in the original timeline there were until February 1943

Review the article in question; it was repeated commando landings, not actual conventional forces....and launched from Darwin.

and your own source says that the Allies were trying to reinforce the island with more troops, even if they thought that withdrawing the air-force was a good idea for reasons unstated. (Since your source states the original timeline evacuation was overrun by the incoming Imperial Japanese invasion, I'm going to guess that the reason for the attempted original timeline evacuation of the air-force from Timor was 'The Imperial Japanese are literally on the beach - time to get the air-force staff out!' and that anything short of an actual Imperial Japanese invasion would not have resulted in the air-force trying to leave.)
So: basically, 'special rules for Imperial Japan!' in your scenario.

No, the citation noted the evacuation of the RAAF began before the Japanese landing and had yet to be completed before the Japanese landed. As already noted, it was no longer possible to resupply the island and with Darwin in Japanese hand it's completely impossible; said convoy and commando raids both originated from Darwin.

 

[History Learner]

But there are other locations to launch raids from, it's simply a matter of making adjustments.

Not in 1942, you'd have to build up completely new air bases and infrastructure; Darwin IOTL didn't even get a rail connection until 2006 and the closest railway is in Alice Springs which is 800 miles away. As I said in my opening posts, the earliest you're looking at is sometime in 1943 and possibly as late as 1944 to retake Darwin.

If the Japanese are sitting in Darwin the Allies probably build up Exmouth Gulf a lot more than they did OTL and they could bomb Balikpapan from there or they could even build up the facilities in Broome. They could assign B-24s to the Cocos Islands sooner than the did OTL (granted that did not happen until August 1945) but there is no reason facilities there could not get built up sooner if somebody felt it was necesssary. Exmouth Gulf and the Cocos Islands are a couple hundred miles further but if the Allies deem it to be important enough they will do it.B-29s can raid from Ceylon which they did OTL, granted later than August 1943 but again the point is, the Allies had other options if Darwin is not available. This also assumes they will not have taken care of the problem but late summer of 1943.

Combat range of a B-17: 2,000 miles
Combat range of a B-24: 2,100 miles

Exmouth to Balikpapan (roundtrip): 2,900 miles
Broome to Balikpapan (roundtrip): 2,400 miles
Cocos to Balikpapan (roundtrip): 3,126 miles

Not only would they have to build new air bases, no existing Allied planes can even reach Balikpapan.

Darwin secures the Western approaches to Port Moresby and ties down Allied fighters defending Australian cities.

Only in your ASB world. The fighters are available from the ones that were used to defend Darwin OTL and the distances are too great for the Japanese to sustain a campaign.

Only unescorted bombers can reach the Western approaches from Townsville and those are limited in number, no other aircraft can reach said approaches. In Port Moresby itself, there is only 17 P-40s available from March into April when two more squadrons of P-39s arrive. In other words, any naval invasion from this side of Port Moresby will achieve air superiority.

 

[Zheng He]

Darwin to Balikpapan round trip is about 2400 miles as well. That’s funny.

 

[SwampTiger]

Using the same Wiki article for combat radius of the B-24J:

Bombs:

• Short range (˜400 mi [640 km]): 8,000 pounds (3,600 kg)
• Long range (˜800 mi [1,300 km]): 5,000 pounds (2,300 kg)
• Very long range (˜1,200 mi [1,900 km]): 2,700 pounds (1,200 kg)

Forget range, it is irrelevant. How far can it go with a useful combat load, ie. radius.

Note that the B-24 did make a series of three strikes on Balikpapan in August 1943 carrying 3000 pounds of bombs over 2600 total miles from Darwin. This is over a year after the POD with much experience in shorter raids.

 

[Colonel Grubb]

A note on railway options to Darwin.

In OTL 1942 MacArthur offered US manpower, equipment and material to build a link from the end of the Queensland Railways network at Dajarra, via Camooweal and then link up with the Northern Australia Railway. But my source is missing from the draft article I was writing a few years ago about this topic except I remember the secondary source referencing documents in the National Archives about it. However pre-war all proposals were via Queensland. Given US manpower and mechanical construction means, the distance from Dajarra over the Barkley tablelands could be built relatively quickly given the minimal earthworks and light axle loading that it would be built to. That doesn't solve the issues in transshipping supplies in Brisbane, then moving them up the over-burdened North Coast line and then inland on the Mt Isa line which was hugely susceptible to flooding prior to the 1950s rebuild and the chronic locomotive and wagon shortage in Queensland at the time.

If anything though, at least the that bloody dog leg wharf in Darwin (if it survives long enough) will hamper the Japanese as much as it did the Australians...

 

[Johnrankins]

I also like the fcact that the Allies don't change their plans at all if Darwin is taken. Japan is able to send dozens if not hundreds of planes from its megere supply but somehow the US/UK/AUS somehow can't send as much as another slingshot than they did OTL.

 

[Ian_W]

Darwin is in the Northern Territories, not Queensland. Might want to double check your maps.

.

Some exceptionally over-optimistic person wrote "They'll have to leapfrog build them up the coasts of Australia under constant Japanese air attack; it's going to take months at best and probably not until 1943 or perhaps even 1944 at worst, especially given the U.S. will be more interested in a Central Pacific thrust without MacArthur."

You don't have to leapfrog build anything when you have a railway. You just send the stuff up it faster than the other side can move things by boat.

 

[Ian_W]

Commando raids are completely impossible beyond anything occasional given the sheer distance from the nearest Australian bases.

If the Japanese attack Darwin, the closest Allied base is probably going to be Katherine, which will itself be supported from Tennant Creek. And it's absolutely possible with 1942 trucks to maintain these positions from the Alice Springs railhead.

 

[History Learner]

Some exceptionally over-optimistic person wrote "They'll have to leapfrog build them up the coasts of Australia under constant Japanese air attack; it's going to take months at best and probably not until 1943 or perhaps even 1944 at worst, especially given the U.S. will be more interested in a Central Pacific thrust without MacArthur."

You don't have to leapfrog build anything when you have a railway. You just send the stuff up it faster than the other side can move things by boat.

Darwin didn't get a rail connection until 2004 and the distance between Townsville and Darwin, the next major port, is 1,160 air miles. To put that into perspective, the distance between Berlin to Moscow is less than a 1,000 miles; we all saw how well that worked out in WWII.

If the Japanese attack Darwin, the closest Allied base is probably going to be Katherine, which will itself be supported from Tennant Creek. And it's absolutely possible with 1942 trucks to maintain these positions from the Alice Springs railhead.

Katherine, with no infrastructure at all, 800 miles from the nearest railway and with no ports nearby in the Australian desert. Yeah, not happening ever. Nor is it possible at all for trucks in 1942 to sustain it; the Anglo-Americans over much short distances and years of motor production to assist them couldn't manage it in Western Europe in 1944 (See the Red Ball Express) and the Aussies definitely can't in 1942.

 

[Riain]

A couple of articles about the Alice Springs (1941 pop. ~1000) to Larimah military truck route and organisation to keep Darwin (1941 pop. ~2000) supplied and reinforced during the war.

http://www.ntlexhibit.nt.gov.au/exhibits/show/track/bitumen
https://northernterritory.com/articles/alice-springs-in-wwii

 

[Ian_W]

Darwin didn't get a rail connection until 2004 and the distance between Townsville and Darwin, the next major port, is 1,160 air miles. To put that into perspective, the distance between Berlin to Moscow is less than a 1,000 miles; we all saw how well that worked out in WWII.



Katherine, with no infrastructure at all, 800 miles from the nearest railway and with no ports nearby in the Australian desert. Yeah, not happening ever. Nor is it possible at all for trucks in 1942 to sustain it; the Anglo-Americans over much short distances and years of motor production to assist them couldn't manage it in Western Europe in 1944 (See the Red Ball Express) and the Aussies definitely can't in 1942.

Being someone who actually learns from history, I'll just leave this here.

https://www.ww2places.qld.gov.au/places/?id=1065

Unlike the Nazis, the Allies were actually *good* at logistics ... and remember, they did this without an invasion to throw back.

 

[Ramontxo]

Because Japanese bombers based in Darwin can suppress Townsville while Japanese fighters give them air superiority on the sea lanes to Port Moresby from the East.

Well the lutwaffe failed to suppress (other than temporary) Malta from Sicily

 

[Ian_W]

BTW, I would love to see someone write a well written, well researched, and realistic TL on this subject. I would gladly be an active reader and help out where needed. I do think it is an interesting subject.

I've done some work on it, and you might see it.

TLDR : A Japanese invasion of Australia in early 1942 was expected, absolutely possible and would have been a total disaster for the Japanese.

http://www.ibiblio.org/anrs/docs/D/D7/nimitz_graybook1.pdf is a key source (yeah, it's the daily summary of *that* Chester Nimitz) - flip to page 246 and read the February 20 1942 report. The next days is even more interesting. And Feb 26 is very sobering.



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