Eh not really. Native elites might not have the same status as Anglos in the early decades, but they're definitely part of the establishment.
The Great Crusade (Reds! Part 3)
- Thread starter Aelita
- Start date
Another problem would be the resentment against the corrupt elite class that lead to the Cuban Revolution. And I highly doubt Cuba would want to reform when they're being supported by the FBU. Cuba is just of house of cards waiting for someone like Castro to knock it down.
All of these were issues with Taiwan.
Nothing ever materialized despite Chiang's regime killing upwards of five hundred thousand people.
The regime was simply too heavily armed and well supported by a superpower to overthrow.
OTL's Cuban revolution occured against a relatively weakly armed country; while this Cuba is very well armed and will likely be hosting nuclear bombers and foreign military forces very early on.
So attempts at revolution are just going to get slaughtered and the UASR left unable to intervene without the FBU immediately threatening nuclear war if so much as a single ship or plane strays anywhere near Cuba.
Yeah, with a superpower backing them and having the luxury of a nuclear envelope protecting them.
Which they lack. Plus a populace that is native born, holds grudges like nobody's business, and little to lose.
By the 60s they'll have both.
A heavy FBU military presence along with a large number of missiles and bombers already there.
The new regime is very heavily armed and has no qualms about killing as many people as they need to make the revolutionaries go away.
The cuban regime is going to be here to stay for most of the same reasons Taiwan's was. They even have Brazil/Venezuela to serve a role similar to Japan and South Korea did to OTL Taiwan. Former enemies turned allies who help keep a presence in what would otherwise be a part of the world strongly dominated by the Communist bloc.
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And I'm guessing at some point, like OTL Cuba, the UASR, despite statements to the contrary, just gives up on trying to convert it to their side, at least for the time being.
Except there's a point at which it becomes hard to justify slaughtering half your population, both to the superpowers backing you, and to the local citizens.
Certainly didn't stop Suharto or Chiang Kai-Shek.
Stretched over 30 years (1933-1963 when he'd almost certainly be aging to the point to have de facto retired) MacArthur's regime could kill a million people; some thirty three thousand people every year, and you'd be surprised at how many people would end up accepting it and even engaging in apologetics for it after the country liberalizes.
And as for Taiwan thinking they were Chinese; oh no they absolutely did not. After more than a half century of Japanese rule and some pre-existing seperationist sentiment the Taiwanese considered themselves a separate people from the mainland of China and basically regarded the KMT's occupation as an outright invasion and struggled against it tooth and nail (also you people are seriously underestimating the differences in Chinese dialects; much of Chiang's troops would not have been able to communicate with the locals). But the KMT just kept on cracking skulls, imprisoning dissidents, and engaging in social engineering until the Taiwanese ended up accepting KMT rule as their new status quo. Taiwan would have rather had become its own independent state and didn't want anything to do with either the KMT or the CCP.
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You also have to take into account the fact that not only is the Cuban Regime killing a lot of people you also have a large proportion of the native population moving out of the country. In addition to a large number of southern Pro-MacArthur Whites moving into the country which could easily help to tip demographics into the establishments favor. Finally Cuba joins the war on the side of the United Nations the need for wartime unity will help to keep things quite for most of the 40s.
When Castro's 26th of July Movement overthrew the Batista regime, Cuba had long fallen out of good graces with Washington, and had essentially been cut loose. The movement had made no outwardly communist genuflections to avoid any reinforcement to Cuba, and were able to take advantage of widespread discontent among the institutions of state as well.
There is never any analogue to this ITTL. The exile regime in Cuba enjoys the support of the UK in the 30s, who are using it as a major naval anchorage and a staging point for the RAF to contest the Carribean. MacArthur is financially supported, ensuring that at the very least the soldiers and Cuban elites are going to get their due. By 42, the native communists are instructed to support a Popular Front for the war effort. They enjoy a very brief period where they're not mercilessly suppressed, and are suppressed quite ruthlessly again in 1948, with many leaders, with a false sense of safety, are rounded up very quickly. The FBU continues to use Cuba as a major military staging area, including nuclear missiles, bombers, submarine pens, and an army garrison. An exile community, several hundred thousand strong, and some recent FBU transplants, are increasingly marrying into the White Spanish Cuban elite. Many will proudly call themselves Americanos in thickly Spanish accented English.
The peasants are kept in line. The workers are suppressed. The elites continue to enjoy the luxuries of their class, and the FBU will not give up such a strategically valuable position.
There is never any analogue to this ITTL. The exile regime in Cuba enjoys the support of the UK in the 30s, who are using it as a major naval anchorage and a staging point for the RAF to contest the Carribean. MacArthur is financially supported, ensuring that at the very least the soldiers and Cuban elites are going to get their due. By 42, the native communists are instructed to support a Popular Front for the war effort. They enjoy a very brief period where they're not mercilessly suppressed, and are suppressed quite ruthlessly again in 1948, with many leaders, with a false sense of safety, are rounded up very quickly. The FBU continues to use Cuba as a major military staging area, including nuclear missiles, bombers, submarine pens, and an army garrison. An exile community, several hundred thousand strong, and some recent FBU transplants, are increasingly marrying into the White Spanish Cuban elite. Many will proudly call themselves Americanos in thickly Spanish accented English.
The peasants are kept in line. The workers are suppressed. The elites continue to enjoy the luxuries of their class, and the FBU will not give up such a strategically valuable position.
Maybe during the thawing of the Cold War could the regime collapse?
Doubtful, even during the Détente ITTL I'd imagine the FBU would like to keep their oversized nuclear, army and naval base that is white Cuba "just in case".
Especially if we still have Canada ITTL going communist in the 70's.
Or the FBU collapses due to economic and political pressures like the USSR.
You should remember however ITTL the Cold War lasts to the present day and will be continuing past the present ITTL since India is the heart of capitalism and it has not reached such a point of degeneration that it's probable that it's about to collapse like a house of cards.
Now White Cuba will either survive until the Empire of Brazil falls apart or it does fall soon after the FBU. But the FBU is still standing so White Cuba is too.
bookmark95
Banned
The problem is that the history of ITTL Taiwan wasn't dominated by a group of racists and capitalists subjugating a native population. Once MacArthur kicks the bucket, the Native population is going to erupt.
I bet socialist Marion Morrison is even more of an extremist than right-wing John Wayne.