I guess we’ll just have to wait and see what @Sorairo has planned.
The Footprint of Mussolini - TL
Deleted member 109224
What about Prince Amadeo? Viceroy of East Africa may be a position conducive to rising the ranks.
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Wiki says that there wasn't any anti-Italian insurgent activity in the bits of Ethiopia annexed to Somali and Eritrea OTL.
If I were an Italian Dictator being forced out of Ethiopia, I'd withdraw from the four "Ethiopian Provinces" and retain Eritrea, Somalia, and a strip of territory (including Harar and Dire Diwa) connecting the two. Sure, Ethiopia is independent, but whatcha gonna do without sea access?
(proceeds to laugh evilly)
Last edited by a moderator:
Deleted member 109224
Duce: It isn't Capitalism, it's Fascism with Italian characteristics
Questioner: Wasn't Fascism supposed to be Fascism with Italian characteristics?
Another matter to consider is that Ethiopia can become a PR nightmare easily.
Colonialism in Africa seems like it will last longer than OTL. France doesn't have the loss in Indochina and the longer war there to drain it more. Britain between those who want to reform the Empire into the Commonwealth and Anti Colonial groups who don't want a repeat of India of the Middle East; we could see much more support for a drawn out decolonization. And Portugal and Spain are better positioned internationally and Portugal is changing strategies.
But even with all that the old school colonialism is on its way out. More local participation in government even if they try the Indochina model. And there will be more and more de jure and de facto independent African states. And in both you can expect Italy will be seen as mud for its actions in Ethiopia. The African people will become a voice that is heeded more and more and if there is still insurgency by the 70s we can both expect the situation for locals is nt good and media is increasingly penetrating and scrutinizing.
While Libya may be sellable if its majority Italian and integrated into the Italian mother country politically, I don't think they will be able or willing in regard to Ethiopia to integrate it. And as time goes on and Africa becomes increasingly free that will bolster morale for those who resist while more and more Italians will question the viability of the colony they are shedding blood and spending fortunes on.
Especially if Italy gets drawn into helping Portugal hold onto their Empire; and possibly troubles in the minority rule states causing Italy headaches.
I am thinking Belgian Congo will be the first great blow. Especially if it can avoid the troubles of OTL and need up even moderately successful as a country and democracy it can be a major bastion of Independence movements.
Colonialism in Africa seems like it will last longer than OTL. France doesn't have the loss in Indochina and the longer war there to drain it more. Britain between those who want to reform the Empire into the Commonwealth and Anti Colonial groups who don't want a repeat of India of the Middle East; we could see much more support for a drawn out decolonization. And Portugal and Spain are better positioned internationally and Portugal is changing strategies.
But even with all that the old school colonialism is on its way out. More local participation in government even if they try the Indochina model. And there will be more and more de jure and de facto independent African states. And in both you can expect Italy will be seen as mud for its actions in Ethiopia. The African people will become a voice that is heeded more and more and if there is still insurgency by the 70s we can both expect the situation for locals is nt good and media is increasingly penetrating and scrutinizing.
While Libya may be sellable if its majority Italian and integrated into the Italian mother country politically, I don't think they will be able or willing in regard to Ethiopia to integrate it. And as time goes on and Africa becomes increasingly free that will bolster morale for those who resist while more and more Italians will question the viability of the colony they are shedding blood and spending fortunes on.
Especially if Italy gets drawn into helping Portugal hold onto their Empire; and possibly troubles in the minority rule states causing Italy headaches.
I am thinking Belgian Congo will be the first great blow. Especially if it can avoid the troubles of OTL and need up even moderately successful as a country and democracy it can be a major bastion of Independence movements.
I wonder if a cult of personality revolving around Kai-shek will emerge in South China?
Some kind of cult of personality might evolve around Chiang and pretty surely it is going evolve around Mussolini. But these cults hardly are as notable as personality cults in Communist countries when unlike Communists, Fascists aren't anti-religion whom have not need replace traditional religions by some other ones.
The degree of Personality cult *really* varied by Communist country. East Germany as far as I can tell went almost all the way in the other direction. And the only communist leader in Eastern Europe as of 1989 deluded enough to believe in his own personality cult was the one in Romania.
Intermission- Spain and Yemen
Hello to all, today we will have another insight over other two countries - Yemen and Spain. This time, for main plot reasons, Sorairo gave a strong input in this chapter. Enjoy!
Since the collapse of the Ottoman Empire, the south-western Arabian state of Yemen was ruled by the charismatic Yahya Muhammad Hamid ed-Din, Imam and self proclaimed King of the country. Yahya managed to make Yemen a stable state, keeping it independent, with a certain degree of achieved centralized government through nepotism (the local governors were sons or strict relatives) and a standing army. However, unfriendly countries surrounded him: the Saudi in the north, and the British in the south. With Saudi Arabia, there was for years a border war that ended in 1934, but despite the treaty, distrust between the two nations remained. The British held the important coastal city of Aden, and the region of Hadramaut, therefore the entire South Yemen - territories the Imam considered Yemeni lands and aspired to unite into his realm in name of a “Greater Yemen”. However, he was also well aware fighting the British Empire would have been suicide, so he had to wait for better times.
Diplomatic negotiations with Britain weren’t a plausible course. Yahya Muhammad was quite conservative and decisively autocratic, so he periodically expelled liberal and democratic opponents that normally gathered in Aden. Those groups of opposition tried without avail to promote an underground resistance against the Imam, with the British closing an eye, believing removing Yahya Muhammad would have been more congenial to their interests. The Imam wasn’t totally hostile to certain forms of modernization – in the late 30’s and early 40’s he started to send students and officers to be trained and educated in Lebanon and in Iraq. But Yemen remained a quite backward nation.
In the meanwhile, Yahya Muhammad proceeded to establish more friendly relations with Italy, as the oldest Italian colony, Eritrea, was on the opposite side of the Red Sea. Both being dictatorships, both wary of the British rule in the Red Sea, they both found some initial ground of cooperation and trade agreement, and slowly and gradually their relations will improve. Aside from some issues, like quarrels between Eritrean and Yemeni fishermen in the Red Sea and the status of some islands in the Red Sea, Italy, through the AOI, was Yemen’s best ally in the region. And Yahya Muhammad would never forget that Mussolini was the first to acknowledge his rank of King.
But at the time Yahya Muhammad didn’t commit for a full alliance with Italy, both Rome and Sana’a knowing it would have offended the British. So the Imam kept Yemen neutral and continued to strengthen it internally. The World War, however would change gradually his perspective. The creation of the Roman Alliance, as the rise of third block of authoritarian nations was very appealing to the Yemeni, as despite initially being a Mediterranean focused alliance, the Italians were favourable to search new allies. But drifting the Kingdom towards decisive Pro-Italian positions would have compromised relations with London. Besides, the presence of Turkey in the alliance was a not secondary matter.
Effectively the partition of Greece was perceived as a first alarm bell in the Arab nations. A Turkey that was in a new conquering mind-set wasn’t to be underestimated. The countries of the Middle East knew from the mouths of the Anglo-French that they would be effectively left to themselves following the War. The creation of the Arab League, of which Yemen was a founding member, was also an attempt to forge a common front against Turkey aside the intentions of shared cooperation and creating a strong block.
But the Arab League since its start failed to evolve into a true alliance. Under the surface of a proclaimed Pan Arabian unity there were divisions between its members – above all over the end of the Palestinian mandate and the creation of a Jewish nation. The Levantine nations (Egypt, Syria, Iraq) were decisively hostile. The Arabian proper monarchies, on the Anglo-American payroll, were more moderate on the matter. As for Yahya Muhammad, he kept a cautiously neutral stance. Yemen was a tolerant realm and the Jewish community respected the Imam. Tolerance towards Hebrews was besides a constant in Yemeni history, since the days of the Kingdom of Saba. With respect to Saba, the Yemeni government would take interest to use it in internal propaganda later promote the “Greater Yemen” dream, when Saba ruled over both the South and the North and also over Asir (the region being at the source of the border conflict with Saudi Arabia) and was powerful, respected and rich – the Italian historians reminding of the myth of “Arabia Felix” with Saba/Yemen was its core. Saba being a pagan realm but yet revering the only true God, with ties with the Hebrews and the Ethiopians (the myth of Menelik being added in the Yemeni propaganda to explain the growing commercial relations between Yemen and the AOI) and trading with the Romans, its tale would become really useful for the Imam’s personal dream of greatness. At the same time it would open later to Italian archaeologists in the country and Italian tourism as well, bringing benefits to Yemen in the long term.
But the Imam in 1922 prohibited, more due to external pressure than his own will, the emigration of Yemeni Jews. To solve the matter he essentially closed an eye allowing Jewish migration through Aden. After the First Arabian War, the trickle became a torrent, and by the mid-1950s, Yemen’s once thriving Jewish community was almost non-existent. Despite this, Yemen was lukewarm over the Israeli-Palestinian issue, not wanting to pass like a traitor of the Arab peoples but also not wanting to break relations with the Italians who were highly supportive of the Jewish cause. Yemen would contribute as little as possible to the Arab cause to allow it to save face. Privately, negotiations had already began with Yahya’s government and Israeli officials in the AOI to see if Yemen could become the first nation to recognise Israel. Unfortunately, it wasn’t to be.
In 1948 a rival family, the Alwaziri, also taking strength over certain internal dissatisfaction over Yemeni neutrality, staged a coup. An assassin shot and killed Imam Yahya with his eldest son in Ahmad bin Yayha, to the grief of Israel and Italy. Word of the negotiations with Israeli representatives had leaked, and it resulted in the Yemeni tribes abandoning their support of the dynasty. The assassin, known as Al-Qardaei, was from the Bani Murad tribe. In the brief skirmish that followed, Hassan Bin Yahya (the oldest surviving son of the Imam) fled to the AOI for safety. The Alwaziris then installed their own Imam Abdullah bin Ahmad al-Wazir to run the kingdom, who reversed any of the positive changes that had began under Yayha, deciding to persecute and degrade the Jewish community while condemning Italy. Italy for their part refused to recognise Abdullah as Imam and declared Hassan as the King of Yemen in exile, a claim the Roman Alliance as a whole supported. The archconservative regime hated the Sauds, hated the Italians, hated the British, hated Aflaq and hated the Jews. Yet at the same time, the ancient human sin of ambition welled within Abdullah’s heart. Aden was the apple of Eden, and the temptation led to the government to reluctantly request to join the Saudi-UAR alliance.
At first Aflaq was uninterested in Abdullah, believing Yemen a backwater that couldn’t help in the approaching struggle with Israel. Eventually, convinced by the consistency of their requests Aflaq extended the Arab alliance to include Yemen, which officially signed up on April 20th 1955. By now, the Arab Alliance included the UAR (which consisted of Egypt, Syria, Iraq, Oman and Lebanon), Saudi Arabia and Yemen, not to mention the various guerrilla organisations that swore loyalty to the Pan-Arab movement in the colonial states. While this was certainly impressive in isolation, it was still at a disadvantage against the industry of Europe. But Aflaq, experiencing extreme megalomania after having been able to prostrate so much of the Middle East with barely a shot being fired, was convinced that all the Arab people had to do was rise as one and the Europeans would flee, even at the cost of leaving the Jews to their fate. As Aflaq infamously told Nasser on Yom Kippur in 1955, “I hope the Jews are enjoying this Yom Kippur – they’ll never see another.”
During World War II, the Germans tried to convince Franco to join the war exchange for Gibraltar, large swathes of French and British Africa, even Guyenne, while not being ashamed to remember the debt of gratitude he had with them in favouring the Nationalist victory. But the Caudillo was unmoved, aware Spain wasn’t ready for a global conflict, while being reassured by the Italian neutrality respected by Hitler that the Reich wouldn’t dare force anything on him or his nation. The only concrete thing he did was allowing a small division of volunteers to support the German invasion of the USSR. Like the more famous ARMVIR (ARMata Volontaria Italiana in Russia), it was decimated by the same Germans when the Reich attacked Italy.
In truth Franco wasn’t totally sold on German domination of Europe; he wanted to mend the distance created with the West during the civil war, the air bombings in particular tarnishing Nationalist Spain’s reputation. Even if the Germans did those, the Nationalists allowed it. So Spain was in the early phases of WWII isolated and still in search of investments to accelerate the reconstruction effort. The only major commercial partners at the time were Portugal and Italy, despite the first being ambivalent due to its ties with Britain, and the latter embroiled in the Balkan wars. But, after the dust of those conflict settled down, the Italians started to build their own Fascist/autocratic block with their Balkan allies, involving Spain and Portugal as well. At the time, Franco agreed because the alliance appeared balanced between its members even if Italy assumed formal leadership, it would have been a valid counterweight against Germany, would allow Spain to break in part its isolation, and in all honesty he believed Spain would have been considered the second power in importance in such block behind Italy. In that last belief, he would prove to be wrong.
The most notable effect for Spain in being involved in WWII was the end of its isolated status, Franco’s regime being internationally accepted. On the internal front, his leadership was consolidated across the Spanish people – just the imagery of the Spanish armies marching into France had a great effect in the population. But the Roman Alliance would be for Italy to take the lion’s share – of the other members, Bulgaria and Turkey would have a more relevant importance in the peace talks. Besides it disturbed Franco to see a growing unity between Mussolini and the Turkish junta, in part for ingrained cultural distrust against Turks and Muslims (and also Jews), in part for jealousy. Spain wouln’t gain more than a quote of war reparations, normalization of the joint French-Spanish rule over the small Pyrenees state of Andorra, and vague promises over Morocco.
Effectively Franco thought he could use Spanish participation and contribution in the Liberation of France to press the Free France government in getting a more favourable outcome for Spanish division of the spheres of influence in Morocco. It was an idea supported by Mussolini who wanted a new order in Tunisia as well; both the dictators, while acknowledging French rule over Algeria, wanted however Paris to relent its grip over Morocco and Tunisia, nominally protectorates, but in truth treated more like colonies. Now, De Gaulle had some contacts with the Italians during his period in London where could have considered a change of status in Tunisia; during the liberation he seemed to be favourable over this line extending to Morocco as well. But, after the conference of Kiev, the French General apparently started to back off from those negotiations. Officially he promised to discuss the status of the Maghreb when the war would be over; in truth was only gaining time to restore French authority over its overseas empire.
At Potsdam, De Gaulle’s position was ambivalent and ambiguous. As a European and member of the Allies he was outraged over Wallace’s aptitude and bargain with Stalin over the Far East and the occupation of Germany. But he wasn’t intentioned to cry foul like Mussolini and Churchill, nor either being happy over the Anglo-Italian plots in allowing Germany to recover soon as possible to act as a bulwark against the USSR. He would have preferred a much more humiliated and divided German nation. But he needed Britain and Italy’s assistance in recovering Indochina so he went mostly on their side.
De Gaulle however, by accepting the loss of the mandate in Syria and Lebanon and in principle agreeing over the creation of the Jewish nation in Palestine, believed respect to the pre-war situation France couldn’t afford to pull out from the Maghreb after being expelled from the Middle East, so in short claimed that the protectorates in Morocco and Tunisia will stand as they were before the war. He didn’t want to empower Italy further in the Mediterranean by leaving Tunisia and he wanted to get back at Franco for the show he pulled out at Lourdes, when arriving as a saviour welcomed by French partisans. France, Italy and Spain with British mediation would try without success to find a compromise; Paris would even arrive to harden its stance over French jurisdiction in the Maghreb with the excuse only the French could keep order in the region after what happened in the Middle East in the aftermath of the first Arab-Israeli war.
Therefore Franco, through Italian support, would manage to let pass a Roman Alliance statement of support of Spain in retaining its Moroccan territories regardless of the future status of Morocco, especially if handled only by France, meaning if the French one day will concede full independence to the country without involving Spain, as the RA won’t entertain official relations with such state. Italy and Turkey besides would put their vetoes in the UN over resolutions regarding Morocco in appeasement to Spain.
Meanwhile Franco had issues to adapt in the pro-Israeli and pro-Semitism position, which was dominant in the RA. It put Spain in a difficult position, giving its long and established anti-Semitic history. Franco had his own personal anti-Semitic beliefs; nowhere like Hitler, but he was ambivalent about the Jews refuged in Spain during the war nor so convinced even after the Shoah to be allowed to have their own nation. In the end Spain would stay out from the Middle Eastern affairs, to be considered an Italian and Turkish matter; he kept correct relations with Israel however, also for the benefit of Spanish pilgrims in Holy Land.
Franco soon struggled to have a second fiddle role in the Roman Alliance, wondering often what role Spain could play in a three-block way cold war. He was even unsure over the future of the Spanish constitutional asset – also helped by the wind of a monarchic revival across Europe, he restored the Spanish monarchy, claiming also the title of Regent. But he wasn’t sure who proclaim as King of Spain. Many suggested the young Juan Carlos of Bourbon, who was in exile in Rome; there was who proposed a Carlist pretender; someone even arrived to suggest a Haspburg restauration, asking one of King Otto of Hungary’s brothers to take the crown; Umberto II still tried to convince a totally uninterested Mussolini to petition Franco in proclaiming Aimone of Savoia-Aosta (to get rid of him out of the bed of his wife, the more malignant voices in Rome said).
Then an opportunity suddenly appeared. With America’s silent agreement, the Italians managed to let Argentina in the Roman Alliance, followed shortly by Cuba. Latin America, periodically sensible to authoritarian impulses, started to be more attracted by the Fascist siren, as a stable form of government, of economic progress, above all as a way to mark independence from the powerful gringos. For Franco, it was a chance to build some form of influence in the Americas, acting as a mediator and as an agent for those countries, especially in South America, where there was some dissatisfaction over the ascended status of Brazil through its UN seat; several countries feared the US had an agreement with Getulio Vargas to keep them in line through Brazilian influence.
But Spain started to look as well over the Philippines, recently declared independent by the Americans. Through the Italian base in Taiwan, and Thailand joining the RA, and Portugal having Macao, Goa and East Timor, the Far East was more accessible to Italy and its allies – the Spanish as well. Building influence in the archipelago may have been a long shot, but Franco was intrigued and wanted to try nonetheless. Furthermore, inspired by Italy’s success in colonizing Libya, Franco stepped up efforts to colonize Spanish Africa.
So it would start Spanish adventurism across the Spanish-speaking nations of the world. This would be Franco’s legacy: the loss of the Empire in the 19th century may finally start to be reverted in the second half of the 20th century. However, Spain’s new bellicose behaviour had made enemies, especially in Morocco. Sultan Mohammed V, proclaimed after the French left their portion of Morocco in 1955, had no tolerance for Spanish colonialism in Africa. Quickly, representatives of the UAR were flown in to hash out the details of an alliance. Aflaq was excited at the prospect, saying to al-Bitar in a phone call, “We’re going to light a fire from Gibraltar to the Gulf.” In less than a year, his wicked prophecy would be realised.
‘The Dream of a New Saba: a History of Yemen’ by Ibrahim Marsam
Since the collapse of the Ottoman Empire, the south-western Arabian state of Yemen was ruled by the charismatic Yahya Muhammad Hamid ed-Din, Imam and self proclaimed King of the country. Yahya managed to make Yemen a stable state, keeping it independent, with a certain degree of achieved centralized government through nepotism (the local governors were sons or strict relatives) and a standing army. However, unfriendly countries surrounded him: the Saudi in the north, and the British in the south. With Saudi Arabia, there was for years a border war that ended in 1934, but despite the treaty, distrust between the two nations remained. The British held the important coastal city of Aden, and the region of Hadramaut, therefore the entire South Yemen - territories the Imam considered Yemeni lands and aspired to unite into his realm in name of a “Greater Yemen”. However, he was also well aware fighting the British Empire would have been suicide, so he had to wait for better times.
Diplomatic negotiations with Britain weren’t a plausible course. Yahya Muhammad was quite conservative and decisively autocratic, so he periodically expelled liberal and democratic opponents that normally gathered in Aden. Those groups of opposition tried without avail to promote an underground resistance against the Imam, with the British closing an eye, believing removing Yahya Muhammad would have been more congenial to their interests. The Imam wasn’t totally hostile to certain forms of modernization – in the late 30’s and early 40’s he started to send students and officers to be trained and educated in Lebanon and in Iraq. But Yemen remained a quite backward nation.
In the meanwhile, Yahya Muhammad proceeded to establish more friendly relations with Italy, as the oldest Italian colony, Eritrea, was on the opposite side of the Red Sea. Both being dictatorships, both wary of the British rule in the Red Sea, they both found some initial ground of cooperation and trade agreement, and slowly and gradually their relations will improve. Aside from some issues, like quarrels between Eritrean and Yemeni fishermen in the Red Sea and the status of some islands in the Red Sea, Italy, through the AOI, was Yemen’s best ally in the region. And Yahya Muhammad would never forget that Mussolini was the first to acknowledge his rank of King.
But at the time Yahya Muhammad didn’t commit for a full alliance with Italy, both Rome and Sana’a knowing it would have offended the British. So the Imam kept Yemen neutral and continued to strengthen it internally. The World War, however would change gradually his perspective. The creation of the Roman Alliance, as the rise of third block of authoritarian nations was very appealing to the Yemeni, as despite initially being a Mediterranean focused alliance, the Italians were favourable to search new allies. But drifting the Kingdom towards decisive Pro-Italian positions would have compromised relations with London. Besides, the presence of Turkey in the alliance was a not secondary matter.
Effectively the partition of Greece was perceived as a first alarm bell in the Arab nations. A Turkey that was in a new conquering mind-set wasn’t to be underestimated. The countries of the Middle East knew from the mouths of the Anglo-French that they would be effectively left to themselves following the War. The creation of the Arab League, of which Yemen was a founding member, was also an attempt to forge a common front against Turkey aside the intentions of shared cooperation and creating a strong block.
But the Arab League since its start failed to evolve into a true alliance. Under the surface of a proclaimed Pan Arabian unity there were divisions between its members – above all over the end of the Palestinian mandate and the creation of a Jewish nation. The Levantine nations (Egypt, Syria, Iraq) were decisively hostile. The Arabian proper monarchies, on the Anglo-American payroll, were more moderate on the matter. As for Yahya Muhammad, he kept a cautiously neutral stance. Yemen was a tolerant realm and the Jewish community respected the Imam. Tolerance towards Hebrews was besides a constant in Yemeni history, since the days of the Kingdom of Saba. With respect to Saba, the Yemeni government would take interest to use it in internal propaganda later promote the “Greater Yemen” dream, when Saba ruled over both the South and the North and also over Asir (the region being at the source of the border conflict with Saudi Arabia) and was powerful, respected and rich – the Italian historians reminding of the myth of “Arabia Felix” with Saba/Yemen was its core. Saba being a pagan realm but yet revering the only true God, with ties with the Hebrews and the Ethiopians (the myth of Menelik being added in the Yemeni propaganda to explain the growing commercial relations between Yemen and the AOI) and trading with the Romans, its tale would become really useful for the Imam’s personal dream of greatness. At the same time it would open later to Italian archaeologists in the country and Italian tourism as well, bringing benefits to Yemen in the long term.
But the Imam in 1922 prohibited, more due to external pressure than his own will, the emigration of Yemeni Jews. To solve the matter he essentially closed an eye allowing Jewish migration through Aden. After the First Arabian War, the trickle became a torrent, and by the mid-1950s, Yemen’s once thriving Jewish community was almost non-existent. Despite this, Yemen was lukewarm over the Israeli-Palestinian issue, not wanting to pass like a traitor of the Arab peoples but also not wanting to break relations with the Italians who were highly supportive of the Jewish cause. Yemen would contribute as little as possible to the Arab cause to allow it to save face. Privately, negotiations had already began with Yahya’s government and Israeli officials in the AOI to see if Yemen could become the first nation to recognise Israel. Unfortunately, it wasn’t to be.
In 1948 a rival family, the Alwaziri, also taking strength over certain internal dissatisfaction over Yemeni neutrality, staged a coup. An assassin shot and killed Imam Yahya with his eldest son in Ahmad bin Yayha, to the grief of Israel and Italy. Word of the negotiations with Israeli representatives had leaked, and it resulted in the Yemeni tribes abandoning their support of the dynasty. The assassin, known as Al-Qardaei, was from the Bani Murad tribe. In the brief skirmish that followed, Hassan Bin Yahya (the oldest surviving son of the Imam) fled to the AOI for safety. The Alwaziris then installed their own Imam Abdullah bin Ahmad al-Wazir to run the kingdom, who reversed any of the positive changes that had began under Yayha, deciding to persecute and degrade the Jewish community while condemning Italy. Italy for their part refused to recognise Abdullah as Imam and declared Hassan as the King of Yemen in exile, a claim the Roman Alliance as a whole supported. The archconservative regime hated the Sauds, hated the Italians, hated the British, hated Aflaq and hated the Jews. Yet at the same time, the ancient human sin of ambition welled within Abdullah’s heart. Aden was the apple of Eden, and the temptation led to the government to reluctantly request to join the Saudi-UAR alliance.
At first Aflaq was uninterested in Abdullah, believing Yemen a backwater that couldn’t help in the approaching struggle with Israel. Eventually, convinced by the consistency of their requests Aflaq extended the Arab alliance to include Yemen, which officially signed up on April 20th 1955. By now, the Arab Alliance included the UAR (which consisted of Egypt, Syria, Iraq, Oman and Lebanon), Saudi Arabia and Yemen, not to mention the various guerrilla organisations that swore loyalty to the Pan-Arab movement in the colonial states. While this was certainly impressive in isolation, it was still at a disadvantage against the industry of Europe. But Aflaq, experiencing extreme megalomania after having been able to prostrate so much of the Middle East with barely a shot being fired, was convinced that all the Arab people had to do was rise as one and the Europeans would flee, even at the cost of leaving the Jews to their fate. As Aflaq infamously told Nasser on Yom Kippur in 1955, “I hope the Jews are enjoying this Yom Kippur – they’ll never see another.”
‘Franco’s Dilemma: Spain in the Cold War’ by Xavier de la Vega
During World War II, the Germans tried to convince Franco to join the war exchange for Gibraltar, large swathes of French and British Africa, even Guyenne, while not being ashamed to remember the debt of gratitude he had with them in favouring the Nationalist victory. But the Caudillo was unmoved, aware Spain wasn’t ready for a global conflict, while being reassured by the Italian neutrality respected by Hitler that the Reich wouldn’t dare force anything on him or his nation. The only concrete thing he did was allowing a small division of volunteers to support the German invasion of the USSR. Like the more famous ARMVIR (ARMata Volontaria Italiana in Russia), it was decimated by the same Germans when the Reich attacked Italy.
In truth Franco wasn’t totally sold on German domination of Europe; he wanted to mend the distance created with the West during the civil war, the air bombings in particular tarnishing Nationalist Spain’s reputation. Even if the Germans did those, the Nationalists allowed it. So Spain was in the early phases of WWII isolated and still in search of investments to accelerate the reconstruction effort. The only major commercial partners at the time were Portugal and Italy, despite the first being ambivalent due to its ties with Britain, and the latter embroiled in the Balkan wars. But, after the dust of those conflict settled down, the Italians started to build their own Fascist/autocratic block with their Balkan allies, involving Spain and Portugal as well. At the time, Franco agreed because the alliance appeared balanced between its members even if Italy assumed formal leadership, it would have been a valid counterweight against Germany, would allow Spain to break in part its isolation, and in all honesty he believed Spain would have been considered the second power in importance in such block behind Italy. In that last belief, he would prove to be wrong.
The most notable effect for Spain in being involved in WWII was the end of its isolated status, Franco’s regime being internationally accepted. On the internal front, his leadership was consolidated across the Spanish people – just the imagery of the Spanish armies marching into France had a great effect in the population. But the Roman Alliance would be for Italy to take the lion’s share – of the other members, Bulgaria and Turkey would have a more relevant importance in the peace talks. Besides it disturbed Franco to see a growing unity between Mussolini and the Turkish junta, in part for ingrained cultural distrust against Turks and Muslims (and also Jews), in part for jealousy. Spain wouln’t gain more than a quote of war reparations, normalization of the joint French-Spanish rule over the small Pyrenees state of Andorra, and vague promises over Morocco.
Effectively Franco thought he could use Spanish participation and contribution in the Liberation of France to press the Free France government in getting a more favourable outcome for Spanish division of the spheres of influence in Morocco. It was an idea supported by Mussolini who wanted a new order in Tunisia as well; both the dictators, while acknowledging French rule over Algeria, wanted however Paris to relent its grip over Morocco and Tunisia, nominally protectorates, but in truth treated more like colonies. Now, De Gaulle had some contacts with the Italians during his period in London where could have considered a change of status in Tunisia; during the liberation he seemed to be favourable over this line extending to Morocco as well. But, after the conference of Kiev, the French General apparently started to back off from those negotiations. Officially he promised to discuss the status of the Maghreb when the war would be over; in truth was only gaining time to restore French authority over its overseas empire.
At Potsdam, De Gaulle’s position was ambivalent and ambiguous. As a European and member of the Allies he was outraged over Wallace’s aptitude and bargain with Stalin over the Far East and the occupation of Germany. But he wasn’t intentioned to cry foul like Mussolini and Churchill, nor either being happy over the Anglo-Italian plots in allowing Germany to recover soon as possible to act as a bulwark against the USSR. He would have preferred a much more humiliated and divided German nation. But he needed Britain and Italy’s assistance in recovering Indochina so he went mostly on their side.
De Gaulle however, by accepting the loss of the mandate in Syria and Lebanon and in principle agreeing over the creation of the Jewish nation in Palestine, believed respect to the pre-war situation France couldn’t afford to pull out from the Maghreb after being expelled from the Middle East, so in short claimed that the protectorates in Morocco and Tunisia will stand as they were before the war. He didn’t want to empower Italy further in the Mediterranean by leaving Tunisia and he wanted to get back at Franco for the show he pulled out at Lourdes, when arriving as a saviour welcomed by French partisans. France, Italy and Spain with British mediation would try without success to find a compromise; Paris would even arrive to harden its stance over French jurisdiction in the Maghreb with the excuse only the French could keep order in the region after what happened in the Middle East in the aftermath of the first Arab-Israeli war.
Therefore Franco, through Italian support, would manage to let pass a Roman Alliance statement of support of Spain in retaining its Moroccan territories regardless of the future status of Morocco, especially if handled only by France, meaning if the French one day will concede full independence to the country without involving Spain, as the RA won’t entertain official relations with such state. Italy and Turkey besides would put their vetoes in the UN over resolutions regarding Morocco in appeasement to Spain.
Meanwhile Franco had issues to adapt in the pro-Israeli and pro-Semitism position, which was dominant in the RA. It put Spain in a difficult position, giving its long and established anti-Semitic history. Franco had his own personal anti-Semitic beliefs; nowhere like Hitler, but he was ambivalent about the Jews refuged in Spain during the war nor so convinced even after the Shoah to be allowed to have their own nation. In the end Spain would stay out from the Middle Eastern affairs, to be considered an Italian and Turkish matter; he kept correct relations with Israel however, also for the benefit of Spanish pilgrims in Holy Land.
Franco soon struggled to have a second fiddle role in the Roman Alliance, wondering often what role Spain could play in a three-block way cold war. He was even unsure over the future of the Spanish constitutional asset – also helped by the wind of a monarchic revival across Europe, he restored the Spanish monarchy, claiming also the title of Regent. But he wasn’t sure who proclaim as King of Spain. Many suggested the young Juan Carlos of Bourbon, who was in exile in Rome; there was who proposed a Carlist pretender; someone even arrived to suggest a Haspburg restauration, asking one of King Otto of Hungary’s brothers to take the crown; Umberto II still tried to convince a totally uninterested Mussolini to petition Franco in proclaiming Aimone of Savoia-Aosta (to get rid of him out of the bed of his wife, the more malignant voices in Rome said).
Then an opportunity suddenly appeared. With America’s silent agreement, the Italians managed to let Argentina in the Roman Alliance, followed shortly by Cuba. Latin America, periodically sensible to authoritarian impulses, started to be more attracted by the Fascist siren, as a stable form of government, of economic progress, above all as a way to mark independence from the powerful gringos. For Franco, it was a chance to build some form of influence in the Americas, acting as a mediator and as an agent for those countries, especially in South America, where there was some dissatisfaction over the ascended status of Brazil through its UN seat; several countries feared the US had an agreement with Getulio Vargas to keep them in line through Brazilian influence.
But Spain started to look as well over the Philippines, recently declared independent by the Americans. Through the Italian base in Taiwan, and Thailand joining the RA, and Portugal having Macao, Goa and East Timor, the Far East was more accessible to Italy and its allies – the Spanish as well. Building influence in the archipelago may have been a long shot, but Franco was intrigued and wanted to try nonetheless. Furthermore, inspired by Italy’s success in colonizing Libya, Franco stepped up efforts to colonize Spanish Africa.
So it would start Spanish adventurism across the Spanish-speaking nations of the world. This would be Franco’s legacy: the loss of the Empire in the 19th century may finally start to be reverted in the second half of the 20th century. However, Spain’s new bellicose behaviour had made enemies, especially in Morocco. Sultan Mohammed V, proclaimed after the French left their portion of Morocco in 1955, had no tolerance for Spanish colonialism in Africa. Quickly, representatives of the UAR were flown in to hash out the details of an alliance. Aflaq was excited at the prospect, saying to al-Bitar in a phone call, “We’re going to light a fire from Gibraltar to the Gulf.” In less than a year, his wicked prophecy would be realised.
Well something tells me Franco will come out a winner in the Second Arab War. Morocco jumping onto the UAR bandwagon will cost it most of the West's sympathy; and any support Turkey might have had for it vs Spain. They don't even have the excuse of being strong armed like the Saudis.
And any success there will likely embolden Franco more in his ventures abroad.
And the retreat of Colnialism continues with France withdrawing from Morocco. And we already knew they left Tunisia. I wonder what butterflies have hit Algeria?
As I thought Aflaq has victory fever something bad.
And any success there will likely embolden Franco more in his ventures abroad.
And the retreat of Colnialism continues with France withdrawing from Morocco. And we already knew they left Tunisia. I wonder what butterflies have hit Algeria?
As I thought Aflaq has victory fever something bad.
Heavily doubt France will leave Algeria. They already didn’t want to do it in OTL, no way that is happening ITTL especially with the Second Arab War coming.
The second Arab war might also delay decolonisation of several Arab countries in British or French hands in subsaharan Africa as well.
The second Arab war might also delay decolonisation of several Arab countries in British or French hands in subsaharan Africa as well.
There definitely is not independent Algeria soon. And decolonisation is delayed when USA is not anti-colonailist nation and USSR is much weaker than in OTL and might be that Communism is not going to be very attractive ideology.
Algeria is probably problem to France long time so eventually France has either give some autonomy or even independence. It is hard to control area which population is about 1/3 of population of whole France (Algeria was integrated part of France).
British Sudan might gain independence much later but it might be divided as Christian South Sudan and Islamic North Sudan.
Deleted member 109224
When was Fascist Cuba mentioned in earlier posts? I'm very pleased by this narrative development.
The Great Arab-Roman war looms!
Will France directly retain colonies other than Algeria? Gabon was interested in remaining French OTL. The French held onto Djibouti for quite some time as well. Lots of oil for France.
France OTL has a firm neocolonial hold on much of Africa through the CFA France system, bribery, public contracts, and intelligence activity. With the Fascists mucking around, I imagine they'd be more on edge.
Togo tried OTL to escape French domination, initially seeking to establish closer ties with the US, UK, and West Germany upon independence. That didn't work out too well for them and the French reeled them back in.
The Great Arab-Roman war looms!
Will France directly retain colonies other than Algeria? Gabon was interested in remaining French OTL. The French held onto Djibouti for quite some time as well. Lots of oil for France.
France OTL has a firm neocolonial hold on much of Africa through the CFA France system, bribery, public contracts, and intelligence activity. With the Fascists mucking around, I imagine they'd be more on edge.
Togo tried OTL to escape French domination, initially seeking to establish closer ties with the US, UK, and West Germany upon independence. That didn't work out too well for them and the French reeled them back in.
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In theory, if the Arabs waited until the soviets were no longer seen as an existential threat by the west and played the western democracies against the fascists, only jumping to a hot war themselves when the RA is distracted, they could pull off a startling victory. Of course, they expect to pick a fight with both power blocs and expect the soviets to offer more than halfhearted moral support and some second-hand armaments, right when the allies have taken a breather and recovered a bit from the Chinese War but still have all the people who gained valuable counterinsurgency experience from that in active service.
The problem is, with the Arab War, if the native algerians take the side of the Arab Federation, then there will be big problems, and likely an excuse for De Gaulle or any other french president to make sure Arabs in Algeria go from majority to minority, likely only keeping non-muslims in the country. This is worst-case scenario though. As for Senegal, Gabon and Djibouti, hell even the Ivory Coast, they might remain under french rule well into the 21st century, same thing for Gambia and the UK for example.