Aflaq has victory fever and it will be the death of all he is building. He thinks he is a great conqueror toppling states he already subverted or in the case of Oman were in civil war. His United Arab military has not been truly tested yet, and if he is going to war in two years I don't expect the UAR to be too integrated as a strong national economy either. When he comes up against the IDF facing a state united against him and forces with equal or greater loyalty to their cause... Reality check in the form of a crowbar to the teeth I would guess. Not to mention the RA military's likely to be involved.
And the UAR structure and his alliance with Saudi Arabia are shaky. Nasser and the Omani dictator will not die for him. They follow him out of pragmatism and will bail if thy can at the first sign. Likewise the Saudis are only with him for fear of Arab populism and the country might see events like OTL WWII Italy with the current king overthrown to change sides if thing go south for Aflaq. Not to mention I expect many powerful people and segments of the conservatives in the Saudi population take a dim view of following a Christian upstart like Aflaq when their country holds Mecca and Medina; and would support turning on the UAR if things get dicey.
And his great ally? The Soviets? The USSR is sick, and even if the Troika have it on the road to recovery that will be at least a decade not two years. I can see Aflaq going to war expecting the Soviets to back him or threaten WWIII to keep Israel for getting aid, only for the Troika to leave him to die knowing they have no chance beyond going down swinging right now. Leaving Aflaq to fall may be what topples the Troika ending the "False Hope" of the mid Fifties.
And so the UAR and the Baathists rapid rise leads to a stunning fall with at the very least Israel, Italy, and Turkey striking against them. With Eden's Britain possibly joining in.
The seeming rebirth of Lebanon is interesting. I am guessing it will be part of a wider divide and rule policy by the victors of the 2nd Arab War.
And the UAR structure and his alliance with Saudi Arabia are shaky. Nasser and the Omani dictator will not die for him. They follow him out of pragmatism and will bail if thy can at the first sign. Likewise the Saudis are only with him for fear of Arab populism and the country might see events like OTL WWII Italy with the current king overthrown to change sides if thing go south for Aflaq. Not to mention I expect many powerful people and segments of the conservatives in the Saudi population take a dim view of following a Christian upstart like Aflaq when their country holds Mecca and Medina; and would support turning on the UAR if things get dicey.
And his great ally? The Soviets? The USSR is sick, and even if the Troika have it on the road to recovery that will be at least a decade not two years. I can see Aflaq going to war expecting the Soviets to back him or threaten WWIII to keep Israel for getting aid, only for the Troika to leave him to die knowing they have no chance beyond going down swinging right now. Leaving Aflaq to fall may be what topples the Troika ending the "False Hope" of the mid Fifties.
And so the UAR and the Baathists rapid rise leads to a stunning fall with at the very least Israel, Italy, and Turkey striking against them. With Eden's Britain possibly joining in.
The seeming rebirth of Lebanon is interesting. I am guessing it will be part of a wider divide and rule policy by the victors of the 2nd Arab War.
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