Just wondering, will we be seeing a Federalist Party revival in the U.S.? Maybe a Rufus King administration followed by a Webster during the 30s? :D

Funny you should ask. My next post is going to cover political developments in the U.S. around this time. Suffice it to say, both parties have been discredited, although in different ways. It'll be the Era of Raw Feelings.

I do have something in mind for Rufus King… and Daniel Webster.
 
Aftermath (4)
James Madison was of a generation of men who’d had the extraordinary audacity to carve a new nation from the flanks of the mightiest empire on earth, and the intellect to devise an effective government for it. He himself had done as much to shape the Constitution as any other one man — perhaps more. To him, and to Congress, public opinion was something to lead, not to follow.
And they couldn’t have followed it very closely even if they’d wanted to. It’s easy, looking back from the modern age, to lose sight of the fact that in the early 19th century — before AEs, telephones or even the first differgins and telegraphs — nothing like modern opinion polling was remotely possible.
But when a sea change took place in national sentiment, there was no mistaking it…
Andrea Fessler, Rise of the Dead Rose


September 6, 1815
Washington, D.C.
House Speaker Henry Clay sat back in the chair facing the president.

“Help me to understand this, James,” he said. “Why are you so resistant to enlarging the navy?”

“Because the British have the unfortunate habit of incorporating captured ships into their own fleets,” said Madison. “God help us, if there is another war, I would rather not find that we had made our shipwrights work double shifts to build up the Royal Navy. If we can’t contend as equals with them on the open seas — which I see no prospect of at this time — we’ll be worse off than if we had never tried.”

“A point,” said Clay. “What about Mr. Fulton? They say he’s recovered from his bout of illness, and I’ve heard good things about his latest project — some sort of warship or floating battery, apparently.”

“I imagine you’re speaking of the Demologos,” said Madison. “And you’re quite right — it is a warship… or a floating battery. Apparently it depends on how well the engine is working on a given day. We’ll build a few more of them, but I wouldn’t care to base our whole defense around them. Although if it came to the worst, the British would have a very hard time sailing it back to London.” He sighed. “Henry, what we need is a new way of thinking, and… I haven’t thought of one yet.”

“We must be seen to be doing something,” said Clay. He looked at the heap of letters from constituents that half-covered president’s desk. “You can see the voters are still in a festive mood.”

“You should have seen it two months ago,” said Madison. “At least now I can see the desk. What I’m seeing more of is things like this.” He held up a copy of the New-York Evening Post, turned to an inside page. He pointed to an advertisement for a political meeting, rife with language like “restore the Honor and Glory of the Republic” and “avenge the Blood of Portland and the Shame of Rocksbury.”

“And notice which newspaper it is in,” Madison continued. “I must say, it’s been entertaining, in a grim sort of way, reading the Federalist newspapers this year.” The Boston Gazette, the Connecticut Mirror and the New-York Evening Post had all been against the war, the president and the Republicans right up until Keane chose to stay in New Orleans, at which point they had all abruptly changed course. The Boston Centinel, on the other hand, had remained staunchly anti-war until the day it was burned to the ground by an angry mob and its editor lynched, which had happened while Wellington’s army was outside the city.

“At times like this, Mr. President,” said the Speaker, “the only way to lead is to figure out where the people are going and get in ahead of them. We…” He repeated himself. “We must be seen to be doing something.”

“This proposal for a canal, linking the Tennessee and Tombigbee — do you call that nothing?” If it were completed, it would turn Mobile into an alternative outlet for the upper Mississippi trade.

“I call it a beginning, nothing more,” said Clay, but Madison was already pulling a large envelope out from under the pile.

“This looks promising,” said the president. “It’s from young Quincy Adams in London. I haven’t heard from him in months.”

Clay sat up a little. John Quincy Adams wasn’t exactly one of his favorite people, but news from the American embassy to the Court of St. James was bound to be important. He resisted the urge to get up and start reading over the president’s shoulder.

“He seems to have had something of an adventure,” said Madison. “He was in Paris when the emperor returned, and he had some trouble getting back to London. When he got there, he found that there had been an… unfortunate incident at Dartmoor, where American seamen were being held prisoner. A guard, probably drunk, had opened fire on American prisoners — killed five and wounded several more.”

Clay nodded. “I heard of this. Terrible business.”

“As you can well imagine, young Adams demanded justice. The British held an inquiry of sorts, but they concluded that the whole thing was simply the unfortunate outcome of a riot by those obstreperous dirty-shirt Yankees. No one was punished.”

“I wish I could say I was surprised,” said Clay.

“The long and short of it is that young Adams believes he can do us no more good where he is. He begs my permission to come home and to leave our affairs in London in the care of the consul, a Mr. Reuben G. Beasley… My inclination is to leave him there until my successor can appoint a replacement. I don’t want less than our best in London right now.”

“I disagree,” said Clay. “I am not by any means blaming him for what happened, but I don’t see what the British government could do in his absence worse than what Their Lordships did in his presence. It is, of course, your decision.”

“I think you’re right,” said Madison.
 
I am pondering what that book title might mean.

Aside from New Orlaeans what exactly did the Americans loose?

Hooray for Henry Clay! So are they recalling Adams or is he staying in London. The first section indicates whichever decision is made, it will be a mistake.
 
And more.

The blue line represents French claims after the agreement with Prussia. The states being inconvenienced by these claims are the Netherlands, Luxembourg, Bavaria and Hesse. Forget Luxembourg and Hesse.

Caulaincourt might possibly be willing to return North Brabant and Limburg to the Dutch in exchange for a full peace treaty and withdrawal from the Coalition. In exchange for returning the Palatinate exclave to Bavaria, he would demand a little more — namely, that Bavaria resume its old alliance with the French. Whether the nations in question will take these deals… I'm not going to reveal just yet.

Lycaon pictus

I would agree in terms of forget Luxembourg but not so sure about Hesse. There will still be national feeling in a number of German states and French annexation of German lands will rankle.

As bm79 says the Dutch are a lot less important than Britain in terms of the border. Especially since I presume that the RN is still hammering the French economy by a close blockage?

With Bavaria the monarchy could well be friendly to France again as it was before 1814, although how long this might last as national identities solidify?

However, as Joseph says, those are negotiating positions. If the new Regency can show its willing to make a real peace and can be trusted I could see Britain dropping the Bourbons. It will be the question of vital British interests that will be more important.

Steve
 

Free Lancer

Banned
Adams comes back, tries to make peace with the Federalist Party, and be elected as a Federalist President. :D I just wish it wasn't Adams......

The Federalist Party is all but dead with all the stunts its members tried to pull during the war. And I expect that when everything cools down again with the soldiers coming home there will be cries for their Blood.

Madison can most likely point the blame at them quite affectedly,

America stabbed in the back by the Federalists for their British masters would most likely be accepted by a lot of people.

But anyway very interested to see is this could bring the US and France to together in a way with their shared hatred of the British.
 
The Federalist Party is all but dead with all the stunts its members tried to pull during the war. And I expect that when everything cools down again with the soldiers coming home there will be cries for their Blood.

Madison can most likely point the blame at them quite affectedly,

America stabbed in the back by the Federalists for their British masters would most likely be accepted by a lot of people.

But anyway very interested to see is this could bring the US and France to together in a way with their shared hatred of the British.

It's not quite that bad. Wellington's campaign was too much of a Curb Stomp Battle to be attributed to a stab in the back. And now even the Federalists are angry at the British. (Although some of the more extreme Federalists, like Pickering and John Lowell Jr., have by now probably been encouraged by their neighbors to enjoy a new life in Canada.) But yeah, the Federalists were on the decline even before the war, and this will pretty much put an end to them.

I'll be getting to the full political reaction in the U.S. in another couple of posts, but for now let's just say some parts of the Federalist agenda will survive.
 

Free Lancer

Banned
It's not quite that bad. Wellington's campaign was too much of a Curb Stomp Battle to be attributed to a stab in the back. And now even the Federalists are angry at the British. (Although some of the more extreme Federalists, like Pickering and John Lowell Jr., have by now probably been encouraged by their neighbors to enjoy a new life in Canada.) But yeah, the Federalists were on the decline even before the war, and this will pretty much put an end to them.

I'll be getting to the full political reaction in the U.S. in another couple of posts, but for now let's just say some parts of the Federalist agenda will survive.

now i want a Update even more now:D
 
Aftermath (5)
This ought to about do it for 1815… (crosses fingers)


Winter descended on Europe that year like the vengeance of an angry god. Sleet fell on London in the last week of November, followed by heavy snow in the first week of December, followed in turn by subzero temperatures under deadly clear skies. It was a warning of things to come.

Early in December, Prince Leopold of Saxe-Coburg arrived in London. Contrary to what certain feverish biographers and romantic K-graphs have claimed, Princess Charlotte Augusta did not in fact leave Weymouth at once, ride like a bat out of hell to London through the blizzard on the back of a white horse, and leap into her beloved’s arms in the middle of (the yet-to-be-built) Piccadilly Circus while the onlookers cheered. However, she lost no time in writing entreaties to her father the Prince Regent, who was beginning to understand that there was no point in trying to stop his daughter from doing whatever she set her mind to. This, too, was a sign of things to come.

In France — in what was now northern France — General Lamarque maintained his watch along the Waal while the bureaucracy set about organizing Mont-Tonnerre and the other new departments. In Paris, the government considered the foul weather, the blockade and the loss of St.-Pierre and Miquelon, which had cut them off from the Grand Banks fisheries, and what they might mean for the immediate future as far as keeping the nation fed went. “Unlike Louis the Last, I will not be caught flat-footed while the people riot for bread,” said Lanjuinais. “Plan for the worst.” Little did he realize how bad “the worst” would be.

In Karlsruhe, Talleyrand was spending half his time assuring King Louis of his loyalty, and the other half sniping against the king’s British allies in letters to various statesmen and crowned heads. “A week after Castlreagh left Vienna, General Wellington went off on a mission to America. And two weeks after that, Bonaparte returned to France,” he wrote to Metternich. “Of course, it may all be coincidence — but remember which nation was in charge of Elba and the waters around it.” To Tsar Alexander, he wrote: “It has long been British policy never to allow any one nation to dominate Europe. If there is a danger of that now, it does not come from France.”

In Spain, King Ferdinand seldom left the palace in Madrid. His attempted purge of liberals and constitutionalists had begun to spiral, as these things do. Now he was seeing Bonapartist — or perhaps post-Bonapartist would be a better word — agents and sympathizers under every bed. No one (certainly no one in the army) was calling him “the Desired One” any longer. And it was increasingly obvious to ministers and generals alike that Spain’s biggest problem was not the threat of a resurgent France, but the potential loss of New World colonies they had held for centuries. Something would have to be done.

In Italy, the late Emperor’s brother-in-law Joachim Murat — or, as he had now taken to calling himself, Gioacchino Murati — spent Christmas shivering in the midst of a rebel camp in the hills north of Genoa, a hunted man. He hadn’t been able to defeat the Austrians when he had real armies at his command, let alone this ragtag that barely followed his orders and called him “Your Majesty” half in jest. It seemed unlikely that the rebellion would even survive the next year.

In Vienna, on the other hand, Christmas was celebrated with peace and joy. More peace than usual — a new treaty had been signed between Emperor Francis I and the ambassadors from Baden, Württemberg, Saxony and Hesse. The rulers of the smaller states did not declare themselves the Emperor’s vassals, but they did abandon the week reed of the German Confederation and enter into permanent alliance with Austria. (Representatives of Bavaria were conspicuous by their absence.)

In Prussia and Poland, there was little joy, and the only peace was that which was enforced by Marshal Winter. The terrible blizzards of early December had bogged down both sides right where they were, leaving the Poles in control of the Posen area, Upper Silesia south and east of Oppeln and the free city of Krakow, whose government had tried to stay neutral. The revolt in Russian Poland had already been crushed, and in St. Petersburg, the tsar was writing to Metternich, suggesting that if Prussia failed to reconquer these lands by the end of next spring, Russia and Austria should do it instead. In the Sublime Porte, Mahmud II mourned the glory of Ottoman arms that had once been the terror of East and West alike, but were now proving inadequate to keep the Serbs in line.

The nations of Europe had begun the year united in purpose, and ended it mired in the opportunism and mutual suspicion that characterize most of human history. And yet, one imagines that throughout all Europe, the passing of the year must have been felt with a deep sense of relief. The crisis of 1815 was over. The crisis of 1816 was about to begin.


P. G. Sherman, 1815 And All That
 
Lycaon pictus

Would Talleyrand be that stupid or is this a suggestion he's seeking to jump ship pack to the Bonaparte's? Baring a total collapse of the imperials say in a civil war the only way Louis is going to get France 'back' is with the support of at least two of the great continental powers plus Britain. Its needed to provide the funds for such a conflict, the weapons and the naval power. Therefore seeking to drive a wedge between Britain and the continental powers is really daft unless he wants to prevent any such alliance. Given how intelligent he is supposed to be that just doesn't make sense.

Steve
 
It would seem to me right now Russia and Austria are the best off in Europe.

Russia has retired in good order. And along with Austria has a win-win situation in Poland. Either the Prussians get their Poles under heel in which case the Polish problem is settled without further treasure or blood on the motherlands part. And if the PRussians fail Russia and Austria get to Partition again.

Austria is kicking ass in Italy at the moment and is tying South Germany to its camp. They also along with Russia may be able to gain further Polish land. Prussia is humiliated by making a peace with the Bonapartes while its house is in disarray rather than being the vanquisher like OTL. Prussia has been set back at least a generation, even if they get the Polish situation under control.

The Habsburgs also have the option that one of their blood gets the French Throne if they withdraw Bourbon support. What could the French offer Vienna to sweeten the deal?

Britain I suppose is fairly well off compared to the others. Spain has a sick head in its body of state. France is still under siege and the Post Napoleon era could slip into chaos. The Dutch are in a bind. The PRussians have revolt in the Eat and too new to fully use subjects in the west.

That about right?
 
The Habsburgs also have the option that one of their blood gets the French Throne if they withdraw Bourbon support. What could the French offer Vienna to sweeten the deal?

That's a good point. Is the four-year-old, half Hapsburg Nappy Deux Emperor? OTL, Nappy Premier abdicated in his favour right after Waterloo, for all the good that did. And if he is, does his mother Marie-Louise become regent?

Also, LP, has Wellington been paroled yet or is he still in French custody?
 
If the Coalition does end up recognizing the Regency any thoughts on the Bourbons and Louis?

I was thinking they might get a new state as a consolation and be soothed at the idea of it being a step towards restoration.

My first thought was New Orleans, but that withered before it could bloom in the face of reality. But what about roughly OTL Belgium? It would put a 'minor' country across the water as Britain wants, plus it gives a base to try and return the Bourbons if that comes up.

Paris wouldn't like it, especially since it carves off part of their empire for the ancien regime. But it just might get rid of the blockade and with any lick the Bourbons will mismanage their kingdom discrediting legitimist forces in France.
 
Herr Frage

Somewhere might be a possibility but I suspect that Louis is going to be too arrogant and stupid to agree to anything like that. Also I can't see a small state on the French borderer being agreeable either to the French empire or to the coalition, as someone would have to defend it and keep it stable.

I suspect more likely inglorious exile, probably in Britain on a pension as he was for the previous couple of decades. The family gradually fading into insignificance unless [or possibly until;)] the Napoleon's make a total pigs ear of matters and then the Bourbon claimant can be dragged out of wherever he's been hidden.

Steve

If the Coalition does end up recognizing the Regency any thoughts on the Bourbons and Louis?

I was thinking they might get a new state as a consolation and be soothed at the idea of it being a step towards restoration.

My first thought was New Orleans, but that withered before it could bloom in the face of reality. But what about roughly OTL Belgium? It would put a 'minor' country across the water as Britain wants, plus it gives a base to try and return the Bourbons if that comes up.

Paris wouldn't like it, especially since it carves off part of their empire for the ancien regime. But it just might get rid of the blockade and with any lick the Bourbons will mismanage their kingdom discrediting legitimist forces in France.
 
That's a good point. Is the four-year-old, half Hapsburg Nappy Deux Emperor? OTL, Nappy Premier abdicated in his favour right after Waterloo, for all the good that did. And if he is, does his mother Marie-Louise become regent?

Good question. I suspect that there will be a lot of manoeuvring in France on whom will become the regent. Suspect Marie-Louise will be side-lined, especially while Austria is still formally hostile, but if they make peace with France then she might get a greater role.

Also, LP, has Wellington been paroled yet or is he still in French custody?

Good question. I doubt it yet as a state of war still exists and he is by far the most significant prisoner.

Steve
 
Good question. I suspect that there will be a lot of manoeuvring in France on whom will become the regent. Suspect Marie-Louise will be side-lined, especially while Austria is still formally hostile, but if they make peace with France then she might get a greater role.

Steve


This could be another motive for Austria to make peace. Any chance Paris might offer the Austrian Netherlands back for peace? I see that it would be unpopular since that was considered part of the Empire unlike the other Bonaparte kingdoms. But if Austria makes peace will the UK be willing to carry on with Napoleon I dead?
 
This could be another motive for Austria to make peace. Any chance Paris might offer the Austrian Netherlands back for peace? I see that it would be unpopular since that was considered part of the Empire unlike the other Bonaparte kingdoms. But if Austria makes peace will the UK be willing to carry on with Napoleon I dead?

Herr Frage

If Austria was offered those terms and a free hand in Italy then they might well make peace. This would also remove one of the major British fears, about French control of the Low Countries.

Whether France would make such an offer could be the question. Especially with the leadership in a state of flux and the military successes of most of the last two decades someone who gave up that much territory could be giving a hell of a lot of propaganda to internal enemies. Although, with Boney out of the way I think the rest of his family and Marshall's are very aware of how fragile their position is and how war weary the French population is.

Steve
 
Herr Frage

If Austria was offered those terms and a free hand in Italy then they might well make peace. This would also remove one of the major British fears, about French control of the Low Countries.

Whether France would make such an offer could be the question. Especially with the leadership in a state of flux and the military successes of most of the last two decades someone who gave up that much territory could be giving a hell of a lot of propaganda to internal enemies. Although, with Boney out of the way I think the rest of his family and Marshall's are very aware of how fragile their position is and how war weary the French population is.

Steve

I don't see that either a) the French would offer the southern Netherlands back to Austria, or b) the Hapsburgs would even want them back. The Austrians have their hands way too full in Venetia and Lombardy to be able to send troops to Belgium. And the French, now at the end of 1815, seem to settling into the lands they haven't yet ceded, going so far as ressurecting the old departmental administrations.

Besides, the French have a much, MUCH bigger bone they can throw the Austrians. The Emperor (depending on clarification from LP) is a four year old who won't be having children of his own for a good 15 years, give or take. Since there's not a chance in Hell that a "legitimatiste" Bourbon would be named heir in the interim, and little Nap's uncles have never proved themselves to be good royal material, that only leaves Louis-Philippe, unless... you know, Baby Nappy does have a pant-load of Austrian cousins. ;)
 
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