My posting has finally just about caught up with my writing, and I'll be taking November off so I can work on the sequel to
Altered Seasons: Monsoonrise, before I start working on the election of 1840, the Troubles, the Formosa War, and the [REDACTED]. But I've got three more posts to go. I'll drop them one a day so they can be appreciated individually.
Central, South, and Southeast Asia
The convert and missionary Joseph Wolff[1] is in the Emirate of Bukhara, where his regalia is a source of great amusement for the locals. Not that he minds—he’s been an object of suspicion among Jews for being a Christian, Christians for being a Jew, and others Christians for maybe being the wrong type of Christian when he was trying to decide which type of Christian he wanted to be, so knowing that people are just laughing at his outfit is kind of relaxing. He doesn’t know why exactly God sent him here, but as he likes to say, “You yourself must first of all be
omniscient, in order that you may be able to decide what the Omniscient ought to do.” Mostly he’s looking for isolated populations of Jews that might be open to conversion.
Converts make good missionaries because they know what persuaded them, and good missionaries do make an effort to learn what the people around them already believe. There are some odd millenarian Islamic sects in this part of the world, but what people really seem to believe is that their western neighbors in Khiva can keep attacking outlying settlements south of the Urals and get away with it. Russia is already sending men and weapons into Persia—much further south than Khiva or Bukhara—but not through a desert.
Also taking advantage of apparent weakness? Afghanistan and Baluchistan, which are still pushing westward into Persia while trying not to collide directly with the Russians or British.
To the east, Ranjit Singh looks upon the Sikh Empire and believes that it is at the height of its power. That’s a bad thing. It means there’s nowhere to go but down.
His empire is fairly self-sufficient. They have their own cotton mills. They can make their own muskets, rifles, revolvers, rockets, cannons. What they can’t make is the industrial base that will churn all this stuff out in the volume they’re going to need if they ever have to take on the British Empire. And their entire ability to conduct overseas trade hinges on Sindh, a puppet state that might rethink its loyalty at any time.
That’s not even the bad news. The bad news is that, like the kings of Portugal, Denmark, Prussia, and Russia, Ranjit Singh is well aware that he isn’t long for this world[2]. And unlike them, he has no confidence his chosen successor will be able to, well, succeed. But at 59, Ranjit’s liver is failing. He could defeat any foe in the world except booze.
Speaking of defeat, this was the year that King Bagyidaw of Burma was overthrown by his brother Tharrawaddy. The ostensible reason for Tharrawaddy’s revolt—which took the better part of three years—was that Bagyidaw was failing to restore the glory that Burma had lost after the war with Siam and the British Empire. No sooner had Tharrawaddy taken the throne than he called the kingdom’s generals together and asked them to help him plan the next war, in which Burma would reclaim the Shan states from Siam. On considering the state of their army and the military proficiency Rama displayed in Vietnam, Tharrawaddy determined that in the event of war, Burma would get squashed like a chicken under an elephant’s foot. So it will be peace for at least a few more years. In his house arrest, no-longer-king Bagyidaw is having the last laugh.
Siam is doing much better—they’ve won the wars they’ve been in, and they haven’t gone through any civil wars. There is no question what the strongest power in Indochina is… as long as you don’t think of France and the Netherlands as powers in Indochina. Which, increasingly, they are.
In Vietnam, Emperor My Duong is well aware that he isn’t the real power in the land. His right-hand man, Le Van Khoi, commands the army and occupies a position the Shogun in Japan or Ioannis Kolokotronis in Greece would recognize at once, and that the late Agustín de Iturbide tried for—
he who actually calls the shots… as long as those shots aren’t fired anywhere near the French missionaries who are all over Vietnam.
But so far, it seems like his empire has done rather well out of its losses. Vietnamese ceramics are starting to make their way into the high-end markets of Paris and Anvers, and Vietnam, like Korea, has a silk industry. Although for some reason, for the past month the Compagnie de Commerce de L’Orient’s biggest purchases have been plain rice…
China
China is at war. France has taken the Penghu Archipelago, Lamay Island[3] and the cities of Kaohsiung, Taitan and Taitung. On Lamay Island, the expedition found a former French clipper—meaning the inhabitants had either killed the original crew or bought it from someone who had. What followed was not even the first massacre by Europeans in the long, sad history of that island. And a British fleet is not far behind.
Last time we looked at China, we looked at the institutions that govern China’s foreign relations and overseas trade at this point in its history. They could fairly be described as inadequate, but it seems unlikely that better institutions could have prevented this war. So now it’s time to focus on the Chinese army and navy.
Start with the navy, since the enemy will be attacking by sea. To begin with, this isn’t a single independent body. It’s basically the water arm of the Green Standard Army’s regional commands—at least, those that are on the coast. The purpose of the “Water Force” is coastal defense and reinforcing the army along the rivers. They were never meant to fight off anything more dangerous than a pirate fleet.
To this end, while the Water Force has hundreds of junks, most of them are small and shallow-drafted enough to serve as a brown-water force. Their latest cannon designs date back to the 1770s. They’re not as good as British or French guns (Qing iron and gunpowder are both lower quality[4]) but they’re still serviceable, as long as the other side isn’t armed with Paixhans guns or something. The problem is that to the Chinese navy, a 20-gun war junk is badass. To the British and the French, it could have three times as many guns and still not qualify as a ship of the line—74 guns is the minimum.
Beijing already knows the British outmatch them at sea, to such a degree that in a fight their sailors could only die to no purpose. Beijing suspects, but isn’t quite sure, that the same is true of the French. So regarding the Royal Navy, the Water Force’s orders are clear—
do not engage unless cornered. If you see them, flee at once and seek the safety of coastal defenses. Regarding the French, their orders are a mess of circumlocutions that basically amount to “when in doubt, get the hell out.” This is a problem because one of the fronts of the war is the island the Europeans call Formosa and the Chinese call Taiwan. They won’t be able to reinforce that island by hiding in harbors and rivers.
At the core of the army is the Eight Banners, which date back to before the Qing Dynasty. This is an elite cavalry-heavy force, better armed, better paid, and better trained. It bore the brunt of the fighting in the Kashgar War, with support from the Green Standard Army. The dynasty call the Banners the “root of the nation.” Thing is, the nation they’re talking about isn’t China itself. The Banners are a Manchu institution, and it’s because of them that there is a Qing dynasty. Not that you have to be born Manchu to join—from the time of the conquest, the Banners have accepted Mongols, Han, and even some Koreans and Russians. But the Banners are at the core of Manchu identity.
And Manchu identity is… complicated. If they don’t maintain the Confucian[5] forms and generally try to be as Chinese as possible, they won’t be accepted as proper rulers of China, and there will be many more and much worse rebellions than the ones within the past few decades—the Miao Rebellion, the White Lotus Rebellion, the Eight Trigrams Uprising. This is a threat they have to take seriously. It wasn’t the Ming the Qing overthrew, after all—it was the rebel Li Zicheng, who had taken the capital from the Ming a little over a month earlier.
But if they don’t maintain their own martial traditions that let them win against Li—not just horsemanship and archery, but enduring days at a time in the field—they won’t be able to keep the Mongols or the western tribes in line… or keep the Chinese in line, for that matter. And if they don’t hang on to their Manchu identity and the ingroup loyalty that comes with it, their sons will have to fend for themselves in one of the most brutally competitive societies on Earth. Remember, China still has that examination system, which every year churns out more smart, hardworking people than there are positions for.
The Green Standard Army mentioned above constitutes the bulk of China’s army. On paper, it’s about 800,000 strong, and thanks to the long Kashgar War, they do have some veteran soldiers and commanders with experience in logistics. But it’s mostly a garrison force of a kind the French would recognize immediately as their equivalent of the National Guard… which they would never consider deploying against an actual invading army except as a reserve.
And the Green Standard Army has the same problems the late Ottoman Empire once had of numerous soldiers existing only in officers’ account books. And since soldiers aren’t paid enough to support a family on, the soldiers who are there are people who have no other options in life. Nor is the Green Standard Army logistically capable of deploying more than about a hundred thousand soldiers to the actual front lines. They never needed to before.
Worse, the majority of those soldiers are armed with bows, swords, spears and such. Only a little over a third of them actually have guns. And for the most part, those firearms are hand-made matchlock muskets that wouldn’t have been out of place in Europe during the
first Thirty Years’ War. These cumbersome weapons are longer than the average rifle and can fire, at most, two rounds a minute. Again, this has always been good enough to fight the Emperor’s wars.
Finally, there’s the triads, which are a powerful force in South China and on Taiwan. We think of triads as organized-crime syndicates. They’re that and more. Many local magistrates are not just in their pay, but are actually part of the organization. For our purposes, what matters is that they have local militias at their command. The dynasty tolerates them because they impose a kind of order in their territory, and getting rid of them would cost a lot and ultimately weaken the empire. And while they might be still in the market for a true heir to the Ming Dynasty, they will fight for China against the invaders from across the sea. Unfortunately, they’ll be doing most of this fighting with knives. They’re even worse armed than the Green Standard Army.
Spoiler: China isn’t going to win this war.
Japan and Korea
The Dutch in Dejima—and in Temmasek, and the rest of the Dutch East Indies—have gotten wise to the CCO’s little games. Alas, new orders from Amsterdam are that the French are to be allowed to take on food, water, and coal in other Dutch ports. But in Dejima, Japanese law prevails. The Dutch have never been so happy to be just barely tolerated. Here, they are under strict orders to tell the French to get lost, and they will obey with great enthusiasm.
The new Shogun Tokugawa Ieyoshi, and the Emperor Ayahito (assuming anyone’s told him about it), are pleased that their Dutch guests are following the house rules. They themselves have more important things to worry about. The Shogun’s late father left him a huge mess to clean up. The north has just gone through a terrible, multi-year famine, combined with a massive earthquake and a revolt in Osaka. His new advisor, the
daimyo Mizuno Tadakuni, has convinced him that the key to prosperity is to prohibit ostentatious displays of wealth, and that the key to state security is for the shogunate to own all the land around Edo and Osaka, forcing the daimyos there to surrender their land in exchange for land elsewhere… especially the just-wrecked north. Neither of these reforms is earning him any points with the other
daimyos. Also, this year the coastal batteries had to fire on an American merchant ship that got too close in order to warn it off.[6] So yeah, if the Dutch could just keep policing their little glorified pier, that would be great.
The French are still as welcome as ever on Jeju Island, and can still make supply trips to Korea’s mainland ports. Seeing France at war with China is a little troubling, but not very—it’s seen as mainly a war against pirates, and piracy hurts trade at both ends. Besides, as much as Monju respects Chinese culture, he doesn’t like his kingdom being thought of as a vassal. China is still a bigger threat to Korean independence than France.
Monju’s court has gotten word of something odd, though. The last trade fleet stopped in Busan and bought as much rice and kimchi as their holds could accommodate before turning south again. They had every right to do this, of course—the treaty never specified how much food they were allowed to buy. They obeyed all the proper forms and made all the correct obeisances. It was just that they had never done anything like this before. Were they embarking on some long voyage across the Pacific, something that would require a lot of food that could be stored for a long time?
King Monju soon figured it out. “The French are at war with China,” he said, “and their armies and navies must eat. It is easier to buy food here than to ship it clear across the world. And no doubt they recognize the superior quality of our rice and kimchi.” As one, His Majesty’s court praised his sagacity in solving this mystery so quickly. And, to be fair, King Monju is in fact an intelligent man… who just happens to be wrong about this one thing.
Oceania
We start with three ships, all of which were built by other nations but have been pressed into Her Majesty’s service. The brigantine HMS
Secotan is one of nine ships heading south along the west coast of Africa on their way to Antarctica, under the command of Sir John Franklin. The Symmes expedition, and a failed Arctic expedition since then, were not utter wastes of time and lives. They’ve gotten a sense of when the Arctic ice is at its smallest, and it’s around September. (Franklin would be kicking himself if he knew what an opportunity he’d missed to explore the Arctic this summer.) It follows from this that the best time to explore Antarctica is around March, when you might actually get to the part of the land that’s land and not more ice.
HMS
Ann McKim, an American clipper the British captured in 1837 near Valparaiso, is heading east across the Indian Ocean. George C. Canning is on board. He plans to be in Sydney by Christmas, or New Year’s Day at the latest. He’s fairly certain that talking to Arthur is going to be the hard part. Canning feels he owes it to the man to hear him out, just on principle, but if he has to he’ll use his plenipotentiary power and command of the garrison to throw the man out of his office and govern Australia himself until a replacement comes. And everybody else seems to want reasonable things and to be open to negotiation. Really, this mission seems like it should hardly be a problem at all.
HMS
Benevolence, a captured clipper formerly known as the slave ship
La Benevolencia, is in the Pacific Ocean. And when I say in, I mean it’s at the bottom. It left Sydney in early September, carrying very important messages from Governor Arthur. Some time in October, somewhere in the immense blank stretch of sea southeast of the Chatham Islands, it hit a particularly bad storm and went down with all hands. The effect of this tragedy is that no one in London has any news from Australia that dates any later than mid-August, and even that is vague and missing what will turn out to be crucial details.
The war in the Philippines is over, and the island chain has been divided into three parts. The Dutch and their allies now rule Mindanao. The island of Luzon is now the Republic of Luzon. The Spanish still hold the Visayas in between.
Representatives from all over Luzon are heading for Manila, planning to meet in January. They’re going to spend the dry season[7] writing up the constitution for this republic and scheduling an election. In the meantime, Col. Andres Novales is the provisional leader. He’s got a lot on his plate right now, so he doesn’t really have time to chase down every rumor coming from the port. It does seem odd that for the past couple of months, the CCO has been buying a lot of rice and salted meat and won’t say why.
But the important thing is they’re here doing business, and so are the British, the Dutch, the Americans, and even the Spanish. Novales has learned from watching Hawaii and Siam. Get too dependent on one Power, and next thing you know you’re either a protectorate or a colony. If you make an enemy of one (or if that one makes an enemy of you), you’ll find yourself depending on its rivals. In the future, freedom will belong to those who can successfully play the Powers off against one another. This is a difficult and dangerous game that not everyone’s going to get a chance to play.
For example, the Sultan of Aceh is out of the game. He needs guns to protect his kingdom from the Dutch, and the piracy he’s tolerated until recently has alienated the British. The only Power left to turn to is the one that recently turned a pirate fleet into scorched driftwood without even slowing down. Becoming a protectorate of France is going to be such a bitter pill to swallow that no amount of black pepper can disguise the flavor.
Likewise, the Maori are very much stuck with the British. One purchaser of flax, one source of muskets. Of course, the Maori would laugh if you tried to warn them the British were taking over their country—there are about 2,000
pakeha living in Grahamport and various lawless coastal towns, whereas there are some 50,000 Maori on the islands. That number is about half what it was at the turn of the century, partly because of diseases from overseas and partly because of the many wars the Maori have fought against each other with the guns they got from the British. These wars have been long and gruesome (the most notorious example being the invasion of the Chatham Islands, in which the Moriori were all but destroyed)[8] but it will be some time before the Maori see these wars as something done to them, rather than something they did to each other.
Australia
In the future, anarchism won’t reach the same level of sway as aristism or Elmarism, but it will have its followers—including some actual philosophers, not just rich boys looking for an excuse to throw things and set fires. Proudhon and Stirner in Hannover are merely the first. And the one thing these future thinkers will agree on is that Man is
not a creature of chaos being unjustly held in check by the oppressive State. That would be ridiculous. If we were creatures of chaos, how could we ever have built the State in the first place? On the contrary, they will argue that
Homo sapiens is a creature of order, a species that self-organizes in groups as naturally as bees build their hives. These thinkers may despise Elmar, but they’ll agree with him that “Riot and ruin are no more the natural state of man than the boiler explosion is the natural state of water.” The problem (they will say) is that we’re too good at it—that over centuries we’ve built up such elaborate structures that now we’re trapped in them, like starving bees lost inside giant overbuilt hives, unable to get to where the nectar and pollen are.
For these future anarchists, Australia right now will be as important a case study as Port Harmony is to socialists.
Because Australia has pretty much collapsed into anarchy.
And the circumstances of that collapse deserve a chapter in themselves…
[1] His name appears on the title page of his journal as “Wolf,” but everybody else calls him Wolff, so I’m going with that.
[2] He died this year IOTL.
[3] Liuqiu Island
[4] By this time ITTL and IOTL, the French chemist Michel Chevreul had worked out the exact formula of the chemical reaction represented by the explosion of gunpowder. This meant that Western gunpowder could be made with the perfect ratio of sulfur, charcoal, and potassium nitrate.
[5] Or rather, neo-Confucian. There has been
some change since 479 BCE.
[6] IOTL the
Morrison incident happened in 1837. ITTL, of course, the American merchant marine in 1837 was more worried about the Royal Navy that anything else.
[7] Well, the drier season. This is Manila, after all.
[8] Yes, this is that incident from
Guns, Germs and Steel. The British aren’t interested enough in this remote part of the world to protect the Moriori, and I didn’t really see any other way that an encounter between pacifists with sticks and cannibals with muskets could go.