[1] Colonial Australia isn’t 100% white—there are a few convicts from the West Indies—but it’s very close.

I just wanted to reply to this statement as I looked into this and I found out quite a bit. There were several men that had joined the British during the American revolution, Khoi people from South Africa and I’ve been reading that there were anywhere from 12-18 people of African descent on the first fleet.

The social and political situation of these involuntary transported people is very unique and reminds me somewhat of the African soldiers utilized by the Dutch in Indonesia. If I am remembering correctly, these African soldiers were declared legally “White” or a similar status in Indonesia correct?
So the POTUSes are:
George Washington: 1789-1797
John Adams: 1797-1801
Thomas Jefferson: 1801-1809
James Madison: 1809-1817
John Quincy Adams: 1817-1825
Henry Clay: 1825-1833
John Sergeant: 1833-1837
John Berrien: 1837-presumably 1841
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The American Troubles
Possible causes:
1. Death of Henry Clay in a duel
Should be self-explanatory, but I don't think this will cause it by itself.
2. A disputed 1840 election.
It's quite possible that the DRs once again fail to gain a majority of electoral votes, possibly in the face of a strong challenge from the Populists (possibly in coalition with the Reform party). However, based on the wording of Quids pro Quo (5), I think that this will not take place, and the DRs will be able to win a majority.
3. Berrien attempting an autocoup with the Georgia militia.
It definitely looks like he's trying to do that, and it would not be out of character. I would assume that the army would put this attempt down.
4. Berrien getting assassinated.
Of course, it's possible that multiple, or even all four of these, happen in succession (Henry Clay dies, the 1840 election is hung, Berrien tries to seize power, and then the army crushes it and kills him in the process).

It seems like the Troubles will result in the abolition of slavery (or possibly a national version of what's happening in Missouri). Kentucky will be neutral in whatever's happening.

The Gradascevician Sultanate
Will probably not survive its first sultan. The Russian invasion is called "the Bosnia-Rumelia war". Since it will definitely not be the last war in the area, this means that there won't be a Bosnia-Rumelia by the time the next war starts. My guess is that it falls apart once Husein dies, and this results in it splitting into Macedonia (possibly under his descendants), Rumelia, Bulgaria, an expanded Serbia and Albania, and maybe also Austria-Hungary.

The Hannover-Prussia war
There's going to be a Hannover-Prussia war soon, France will get involved, and the war will "spread to [Feuerbach's] hometown" (i.e. Mainz). My guess is that Britain and France fight on behalf of Hannover, Austria-Hungary fights on behalf of Prussia, and Denmark has a civil war or sides with Prussia. The flashpoint will presumably be Brunswick. Hannover will win. It seems like Germany will go aristist at some point, presumably after August Wilhelm succeeds his older brother.
I don't think that Russia will be willing to get involved in this, especially as Konstantin seems to care little about map-painting.

Next North American War
Since Shannon and Todd will be generals by this point, I am guessing it will be in the 1850s.
The Mission de Alamo will be besieged, so America is fighting both Spain and Britain (I'm assuming it's the Americans besieging the Alamo. This could also be a New Spanish civil war.)
Canada and Florida survive, and I assume Louisiana also does (though I am more worried about it), but I think that a lot of the Rupert's Land/western Canada area will end up American (as the British really can't project power there as well as the Americans can), as will the areas of Texas beyond the Brazos (note also the spelling of Texas rather than Tejas).
It seems like this war will be more competently conducted than the last one.

Other stuff
Elmar heavily implies that Spain will lose Cuba, and soon.
There's going to be an alt!Indian Mutiny.
The Qing will fall. Something called the "Group of Five", who are Han-ethnonationalist and "hegemonist", will take power, presumably for a short period of time, and then be replaced by a more tolerant (Elmarist?) government.

It seems like the Whigs will break in half after Brougham, with the anti-Chartists and Peel’s faction of Tories forming a moderate party. This will leave Britain with a three-party-system similar to France, until the “Bright Revolution”, which I assume will result from the Chartists gaining a majority by themselves.

Elphinstone Brougham is... worrying. She seems to have inherited her father's personality, and be even smarter. I hope her comment to the Dutch grand vizier was an off-the-cuff remark, and not her attempting to torpedo a British attempt at restoring King William. If the latter, then we may be looking at a second Talleyrand, and, more than that, she's attached to a major member of the British royal family who looks like she will be a power player in Germany. Also, it seems like Elphie will outlive Princess Amelia, given her Ten Years Later quote.
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All Hands On Deck (1)
First, let me thank @Cataquack Warrior and @Soundwave G1 for nominating this timeline for the 2024 Turtledove.


“Great to-do at the docks today. A British merchantman arrived in harbor this morning, one day too late to offload its cargo of dried Cayenne and Scotch Bonnet peppers before the new law went into effect.[1] What a fuss they made! Madame Talvande has taught us nothing of commerce and trade, but even I know that another day’s sailing would take them north of the state line where they’d find plenty of people happy to buy their pepper. And surely it would be more profitable to do this than to threaten honest importers with lawsuits for abiding by the will of Columbia. A little red pepper goes a long way in any event.
“They say it’s good luck to have a Negro in your home on this day. I would think if that were true, Negroes themselves would have better luck. Not that it matters. Stephen won’t hear of such a thing. Instead, we had dinner with the Chisolms—a baked ham that must have come from a prize-winning sow, and a splendid dish of Hopping John[2]. We’ll see what luck it brings.”

From the journal of Elizabeth Miller, January 1, 1840.

“Heavy snow overnight. Not as bad as the big blizzard two years ago, but bad enough. This morning we find ourselves prisoners in our own home, though for once it is because of Nature, not the fear of servile insurrection. Stephen had to make his way through the snow to guard a team of slaves.
“My brother learned a lot from our northern friends during his time on Ragged Island. They especially liked boasting of their winters to us Southerners. ‘Now I know why the Yankees despise us,’ he said when he returned home at dusk. ‘They expect snow like this every winter in every town up north. Every Yankee man owns a broad-bladed shovel. When the snow comes down at night, they all rise before dawn and work like Psyche’s ants[3] to clear paths down every street and alley. Not just men, either—strong boys, strapping widows, invalids’ wives. They shovel it all out into the street where the snow roller[4] packs it down for sledges to drive over. Just imagine if I was to try that here. Imagine if the neighbors saw me out there with a shovel working like a n____r. Instead, ten slaves take all day to move as much snow as one old Yankee with a backache could in an hour, and I have to watch with musket in hand so they don’t use the shovels to split white men’s skulls.’”

From the journal of Elizabeth Miller, January 2, 1840.

“The snow is already beginning to melt. I think the sun will clear a path to our door before the team Stephen is guarding gets around to it.”

From the journal of Elizabeth Miller, January 3, 1840.

“Terrible rumors in the market. They say a clipper came from up north bearing word that Sen. Clay was wounded in his duel. They say Rep. Wayne has been taken into custody, but no one knows why, if dueling is legal in Maryland[5].
“I confess I hardly remember anything of his presidency. I was not quite nine when he left office, and my thoughts were mostly of our own family and its troubles.
“I see no point to dueling. What does it prove, other than who’s the better shot?”

From the journal of Elizabeth Miller, January 4, 1840.

“Today in church we were asked to pray for Sen. Clay’s recovery, and for Rep. Wayne. Afterward, heard Mr. Keitt calling Clay a ‘d____d Yankee.’ Isn’t he from Kentucky? Does he not own slaves? Are we calling everyone north of Charleston Yankees now?
“Back to school tomorrow. Less than four more months and I shall be sixteen. Six more months and I shall be a graduate. Seven more months and I shall be Elizabeth Miller Brewster. What a change that will be!”

From the journal of Elizabeth Miller, January 5, 1840.

“It was near the end of the Year of the Pig[6]. We had sailed south along the coast, bringing more soldiers on board at every stop. Half were good soldiers of the Eight Banners. Others were Green Standard soldiers, but spoke Fuzhou, Hokkien, and other languages that would be useful in raising the countryside of Taiwan. Then we sailed south far out to sea, trusting in the sea current[7] to carry us to our destination.

“As a zuoling[8] of the Plain White Banner[9], I was privy to knowledge not shared with the Green Standard Army. I knew we were to land southeast of Takao[10] and liberate the city, cutting off the supply lines of the French on Taiwan and forcing them to attack. We could make no plans further ahead than that without knowing more about the disposition of French forces on the island, as well as those forces loyal to China.

“We could not approach the city itself by sea, because there were several French warships in the harbor. We did not think they were enough to destroy a fleet of over a hundred war junks, but we knew that engaging them in battle would cost the Water Force more than it could lose. ‘One cat at the hole, and ten thousand mice dare not come out; one tiger in the valley, and ten thousand deer cannot pass through.’[11] But the sea is wide, and our fleet was in as tight a group as it could form without collisions. Not even the French could patrol the whole sea. The Water Force could land us, then leave and return to harbor.

“That was what we believed. We did not know that with the balloons tethered to their topmasts, the enemy could see and signal one another ten times farther than our Water Force. Before we noticed their balloons on the horizon, we saw and heard their signal rockets to east and west and knew we were being hunted.

“We were about fifteen li[12] southwest of Liuqui Islet when they struck. The day was clear, the wind gentle, the waves low. We could not make speed enough to flee, and there was no place to hide. They did not even need to come within reach of our guns.

“I was on the deck of one of the ships—I had never even troubled myself to learn its name, that was Water Force business—leading my men in exercises, when a rocket from one of the French ships struck the bow and set it ablaze. The fire was white, almost too bright to look at. Buckets of water poured on it simply flashed into steam.

“Since childhood I have always had a horror of fire that I cannot justify, taking caution beyond need. I thought as a man I was beyond this fear, but to see that spitting fire eat the timbers of our ship like rice paper stripped me of all my courage. I simply fled, cast off my robes and leapt into the sea. I was far from the only one.

“I have always excelled at swimming, and even in winter the sea was not so cold.[13] As I swam, I saw other junks burning, or blasted apart with exploding cannonballs of a kind I had never known existed. I was able to reach one of the French ships, and they permitted me to surrender. Not many of my fellow soldiers were so fortunate.”

He Zhuoqing (translated by Lt. Elmar) in an interview with Moniteur correspondent J.F. Macé, 17 May 1845

[1] If chili pepper is hot enough, it can be used to dissuade bloodhounds from following one’s trail. Scotch Bonnet peppers in particular (which have the same Scoville rating as habaneros) have become popular in OTL’s Florida and are very useful on the southern Hidden Trail. For this reason, red pepper has been now outlawed in South Carolina and Georgia, and similar laws are being debated in Alabama and Mississippi.
[2] A dish of black-eyed peas, rice, onion, and bacon, traditionally served on New Year’s Day in the South to bring good luck. Ellie is, of course, unaware that this particular tradition did not originate with white people.
[3] A reference to the story of Cupid and Psyche. Stephen was raised in the same family as Ellie, and knows his classical allusions.
[4] A massive, horse-drawn roller. (One of the few real advantages horses have over cars is that they handle snow a lot better, and—at least north of South Carolina—sledges are common winter vehicles.)
[5] Dueling was outlawed in Maryland in 1839 IOTL. ITTL, they haven’t quite got around to it yet. (As you can imagine, that’s about to change.)
[6] January 31, 1840, but of course according to the Chinese calendar the new year hasn’t begun yet.
[7] Specifically, a branch of the Kuroshio current.
[8] Company commander
[9] One of the Eight Banners—specifically, one of the upper three that were under the direct control of the emperor, who if it isn’t obvious is about to lose some of his best troops.
[10] Kaohsiung
[11] He Zhuoqing is quoting Du You’s commentary on The Art of War.
[12] Roughly five miles or seven and a half kilometers.
[13] The Kuroshio is a tropical current, after all.
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Thanks for the update!

I recently discovered this TL and devoured it. I love what you’ve done — and quite like the regular updates following the “classes” of people as they grow up.

I’m cheering, in particular, for British Florida. Seeing a multicultural, multi-religious, relatively tolerant society (and one that has to fight for its life against a larger, slave-raiding neighbour!) makes me go into protective lion mode.

[1] If chili pepper is hot enough, it can be used to dissuade bloodhounds from following one’s trail. Scotch Bonnet peppers in particular (which have the same Scoville rating as habaneros) have become popular in OTL’s Florida and are very useful on the southern Hidden Trail. For this reason, red pepper has been now outlawed in South Carolina and Georgia, and similar laws are being debated in Alabama and Mississippi.

“Every Yankee man owns a broad-bladed shovel. When the snow comes down at night, they all rise before dawn and work like Psyche’s ants[3] to clear paths down every street and alley. Not just men, either—strong boys, strapping widows, invalids’ wives. They shovel it all out into the street where the snow roller[4] packs it down for sledges to drive over. Just imagine if I was to try that here. Imagine if the neighbors saw me out there with a shovel working like a n____r.”

I… uh… wow.

I think those two passages tell a million words about the corrupting, corrosive, poisonous effects of building a society upon slavery.
Very good to see this back and world events unfolding. Really seeing the divisions in America highlighted and China is in for a real rough time of things with this battle and what'll follow. How badly is Clay's wounding impacting Washington?
Great to see one of my favorite TLs back!

And yeah, the entire deep South has reached truly new levels of paranoia. This is essentially the same scenario as they had OTL by the 1850s (no more places to extend the institution, a northern populace who is starting to think maybe this slavery thing is bad) plus a much closer escape destination. Of course, any rebellion of just those four lower South states is going to be crushed extremely quickly.
All Hands On Deck (2)
Washington, January 30, 1840.
Dear Sir,—During the election of 1836, the Populist Party joined forces with the Liberation Party in its opposition to the Government of then-President Sergeant. I do not now seek to reproach this alliance, either for its intent or for its consequences; quite the contrary, I seek to expand it.

When some disaster threatens a ship at sea, the cry goes out at once—“All hands on deck!”—for in that hour all must take part in the salvation of the great vessel, lest they perish in its wrack. In this hour, our ship of state faces the greatest menace to the freedom and well-being of the people since it embarked on its maiden voyage. That menace is Caesarism, and it comes not only from the administration, but from its supporters as well. In the hearings of August, 1838, Congress learned that the President had entered office with the intent of pursuing a war of expansion against our neighbor to the south and west, with no regard either for the immediate needs of the Republic or the will of the Congress in which the power to declare war was solely vested. I heard this news with astonishment; and what I then thought of it, and what I thought it would lead to, may be seen by reference to my remarks made on the subject at that session[1]. I have called this a strange policy. It was a headstrong refusal to execute plain constitutional obligations, allowing of no other remedy than impeachment. But on the 29th of that very month, the mechanism of impeachment was thwarted by the Tertium Quid delegation to the Senate, in defiance even of their own chosen leader.

That day was a decisive and fatal one. It revealed to all who have eyes to see, and ears to hear, that a portion of this nation—small in number, yet great in wealth and power—care not what powers a President may claim so long as he stands for their peculiar interest. Should the day ever dawn when this sentiment becomes the general opinion of the electorate, all will surely be lost. As matters now stand, a strong and united repudiation by the great majority will save this Republic. To this end, I am writing to request that the Populist Party lend its votes and voice to the Democratic-Republican ticket in the coming election.

What I propose here is not your acquiescence, but a true alliance, carrying with it a measure of power and a say in the decisions of the executive branch. I cannot offer either yourself or Mr. Morton the vice-presidency, as it has already been promised to another. By now you will have heard of Mr. Scott’s resignation from the Army. After a lifetime in defense of our Republic and its liberties from foreign threats, he, like many others, has concluded that the direst current threat to those liberties is domestic, and may not be opposed from within the United States Army, lest that Army destroy what it seeks to preserve. But as we both well know, though the office of vice president is a position of high trust and honor, its duties are occasional and the scope of its influence limited, compared to the office of a Cabinet official. Furthermore, Dame Rumor tells me that the late Sen. Clay’s colleagues in the Senate are of a mind to leave the late Justice Smith’s seat on the Supreme Court vacant and untenanted until March next, rather than give their consent to any nominee of the administration. It will be one of the earliest tasks of the next President to find a suitable nominee for the Court—a position of lasting power.

The moment is propitious for an appeal to the good sense and patriotism of the people of our Republic. I believe that the election in November will show the greatest change of public opinion, ever manifested in the United States. The Democratic-Republicans are coming into line, with alacrity and spirit. When a new administration shall come into power, and a new Congress, then, and not till then, will excitement cease, or efforts be relaxed. Till then, the movement is steady, onward, with increasing speed and force. Let all who love freedom add their voices to this movement.
I am, dear sir,
With much personal regard,
Your friend and ob’t servant, DANIEL WEBSTER.
Rep. William Seward, Washington, D.C.

“Gentlemen, I shall not keep you long. I come as a messenger, bearing not only my own words, but those of the Liberation Party delegation to the Congress of the United States.

“I am mindful of the reputation our small party has earned over the four years. For the most part we have remained aloof from the nation’s affairs, voting only when the peculiar interests of our constituents are concerned, and at other times serving as a voice for those who may not speak for themselves—the enslaved. Today we lend our support, and such moral force as we possess, to the Webster-Scott ticket for the Presidency of the United States.

“In doing so, we know well that we are supporting a party that includes both supporters and opponents of human bondage. Have we therefore abandoned our mission? No, not for a day nor for an hour. We will not cease to speak against slavery, the most hateful and infernal blot that has ever disgraced the escutcheon of man[2]. And for my own part, I will not for a moment inculcate the idea of surrendering a principle so vital to justice[3]. But if full justice cannot be obtained at once, I will not refuse to do what is possible, still less to do what is necessary.

“And in this hour, to advance freedom for the slave, we must first preserve freedom itself. Much has been said of Mr. Berrien’s wicked and foolhardy choice to attack the Spanish Empire with no declaration of war from Congress, and of the Tertium Quids’ equally wicked and foolhardy choice to shelter the president from the just consequences of his misdeed. But today I call your attention to a far more immediate peril.

“Those of us who claim the title of abolitionist have long known that in states where slavery is legal, we speak our minds at our peril. Since the war, the Slave Power has only grown more heedless of the rights of free men and women. In Jonesborough, Tennessee, an angry mob destroyed the press of the Emancipator[4]. In Friendsville, in that same state, state militiamen searching for escapees ransacked a general store for supplies.

“It is not only abolitionists and Quakers who have suffered. Reform Party headquarters have been torched by violent mobs in Wilmington, North Carolina; Poplarwood[5], Alabama; and LeFleurville[6], Mississippi. Worse, there have been no fewer than three similar incidents in Georgia, in Athens, Macon, and Flintville, and in all these incidents the state militia was on the side of those suppressing a legitimate political party. That same militia now patrols the streets of our nation’s capital, ostensibly to protect the president and his family. And we have seen to our sorrow that even high office is no protection against the violence of the proud and affronted slaveholder…”

From Congressman Thaddeus Stevens’ address to the Populist convention at the Zion Lutheran Church in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania[7], February 7, 1840.

[1] Once again I’ve taken language from an OTL document—this 1840 letter from Daniel Webster to Samuel Coffin of Concord, NH—and repurposed it.
[2] And again.
[3] And again.
[4] Elihu Embree’s paper.
[5] OTL Dothan
[6] OTL Jackson
[7] Location of the 1840 Whig convention IOTL.
So, Henry Clay did die and a large coalition is forming for the express purpose of getting rid of Berrien. Certainly going to be something that feeds into his persecution complex alright. And is Caesarism going to be the go to word for dictatorship in America?
It seems like basically every faction here is determined to kick old Berrien out the White House in November. Not that there will be *no* radical offshoots, but they have a lot less chance of gaining any serious traction now.

What is the current situation in terms of voting rights across the US, compared to this point OTL?
Ah, great to read this again.

For part 1 we see the paranoia growing in the South. Their society seem primed to get even more messed up by this constant anxiety on a grand scale.

Heh, the bit on the snow shoveling reminds me of Oglethorpe of Georgia. It seems a major reason he opposed the introduction of slavery was because he expected it would generate such attitudes among the population.

I can see someone lampooning the pepper ban.

RIP Henry Clay, didn't agree with all the man's ideals, but the compromiser is not a role to be mocked. For better or worse his death brings escalation. And I take it the Charlestonian attitude toward him shows a growing divide between the slave states?

Hope her marriage brings her some happiness in the hard times ahead.

So a victory for France in Asia. Does this mark the Bonaparates shifting more focus on overseas rather than the continent? Can China avoid a Century of Humiliation?

I'm not sure how well Webster's proposal will be received by the Populists. Last time they aligned with the DRP while Sergeant was still president the DRP gave them position by no power; I don't expect that betrayals' sting has faded entirely. And even with Clay and Adams gone are the DRP truly ready to share power?

Dang, I knew the proslavery parties wouldn't get along in the South but I didn't expect near war of this scale so soon. The Quids have basically killed themselves as a national party, again. Even if they break up the Reformist Party this violent suppression will divide the southern Whites for at least a generation; with the Planter elite making clear they won't tolerate the lower class Whites trying to assert themselves or any planters like Davis who don't play by their rules. And frankly that's the best case for them right now, far more likely is that the Reformists will come out on top in the medium run with the Quids holding for awhile in South Carolina and Georgia but eroding away too either the conservative wing of the DRP or the Reform Party as the Troubles end.

Hmm, will we be seeing Hooper Bragg again for another Southern perspective? While I do hope for him to abandon the proslavery view entirely, right now him joining the Reform Party might be a good step for now. And give us a closer look inside that movement in the bargain.

I wonder who the Reformists will run for POTUS? Crockett is new arrival so that might nit sit well. And he may rather be their man in the Senate tan face a likely defeat gunning for the highest office.
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Very good update. Excited to see the South losing its mind.

It has been steadily building alright, although I am curious as to see what shape the troubles ahead will take. With the South turning on itself, what kind of force is going to leave America so marked because of it? And we've seen plenty of kindling being stacked alright, the question is what will cause the spark that'll bring everything to flame.?
It has been steadily building alright, although I am curious as to see what shape the troubles ahead will take. With the South turning on itself, what kind of force is going to leave America so marked because of it? And we've seen plenty of kindling being stacked alright, the question is what will cause the spark that'll bring everything to flame.?

Well I think the Quid radicals will strike north in 'revenge' with assassinations and arson.

But if that's not enough I suppose we could see conflict break out in the Free states of sorts between radical abolotionists that want to seize the moment to purge slavery, those who want to stay out of the mess, amd those tng to rwstore order in the South even if it means giving some manner of protection on slavery? Given Britain's abolitonist credentials ITTL with Florida mayber abilitionists will be targetted by some in the North on grounds of being traitors to the Union?