Chapter 46: Diplomacy and risk-taking under a new paradigm.
For centuries Britain had possessed the mightiest navy of the world, but now it was unable to project its power, and unable to keep the sea lanes open. Rationing became fierce and barely sufficient for long term sustenance. The slow strangling of the Anglo-French supply lines was only one of the problems, loss of prestige was another very real problem, and it would become manifest at the Berlin conference in mid-November. Here Benito Mussolini, Miklos Horthy, and Francisco Franco met to forge a trade group and secret alliance. In this alliance, Hungary was promised Northern Transylvania. Italy in turn was promised Provence, Savoy until the Rhône, Corsica, Malta, Algeria, Egypt, Palestine and Lebanon in the middle-east. Franco’s Spain would take over an interned merchant fleet of 500000 tons including a substantial quantity of weaponry and would following a later DoW be allowed to take possession of Gibraltar, Marocco and Portugal. Under the terms, the three countries were to mobilize gradually* and be ready for DoW’s in the spring, and they should continue to support the warfare until the surrender in Britain and the fall of communism in Soviet Russia. In the interim, Spain would intensify its support for the Germans, including allowing resupply of German ships and scouting for the position of merchant ships. In effect, the Mediterranean would now be almost closed off as passing through the Mediterranean would entail dreadful losses for any ships west of Gibraltar.
Meanwhile, with the status quo falling apart, the British were solely committed to getting supplies through. Three convoys were attempted in November with 45, 47 and 49 ships escorted by both cruisers and destroyers, although none went undetected and each were engaged in some way or the other. One by Bismarck and its battlegroup was virtually annihilated as the German light unit could chase down the merchantmen, while another “only” suffered two air strikes and submarine attacks and the last only suffered submarine attacks. Despite the somewhat good fortune, the Germans could intelligence and packs of U-boats were able to convoy on those convoys that did not suffer attacks from German heavy units and more than half of the merchant ships were lost.
Then, in the last days of November, the cause of the good fortune was discovered. Reconnaissance planes had observed the Moltke and Tirpitz in Wilhelmshaven and a cruiser had spotted a battlegroup turning east through the Faroese gap. The second British Ark Royal class ship departed Scapa Flow, accompanied by the Nelrods with the carrier Furious each laden with 3 squadrons a Sea Hurricanes, a squadron of Swordfish and a squadron of Fulmars. The eldest planes parked on the deck. The gamble to reopen the sea-lanes had begun.
*Major butterflies into not only the Spanish entry, but also how the Italians first battles will be performed. Lots of supplies and logistics set-up in Libya and Abyssinia.
