Appendix B, Part III: Canadian Federal Election, 1972
And now, for a brief synopsis of the Canadian Federal Election of 1972. (As always, editorial notes and comparison points to OTL will be highlighted in RED and placed in brackets.)
Election Results
The election was held on October 30, 1972, a Monday. (Canadian federal elections always take place on a Monday. The writs are usually dropped five or six weeks beforehand.) Turnout was 77.1%, with 9,730,000 electors casting a ballot. (Turnout IOTL was slightly lower; 76.7%, for 9,677,000 electors total.) 264 electoral districts, or "ridings", were being contested, with 133 seats required for any party to achieve a majority government. The incumbent Liberal government held 146 seats at dissolution (one fewer than IOTL), the opposition Tories held 73, the NDP held 25, the Socreds held 16 (one more than IOTL), there were two independents, and two vacant seats.
Progressive Conservatives ("Tories"): Led by Robert Stanfield, Leader of the Official Opposition, and MP for Halifax, Nova Scotia. Won 3,630,000 votes, or 37.31% of the popular vote. Ran candidates in all 264 ridings; elected 123 MPs. (They received 3,389,000 votes IOTL, good for 35% of the popular vote, and returned 105 MPs.) Areas of strength for the Tories included the province of Alberta, where they won every seat; Stanfield's home province of Nova Scotia; the smallest province, Prince Edward Island; and the largest province, Ontario. However, they won only three seats out of 78 in the second-largest province of Quebec. (An improvement over the two of OTL.)
Liberals ("Grits"): Led by Pierre Trudeau, Prime Minister, and MP for Mount Royal, Quebec. Won 3,540,000 votes, or 36.42% of the popular vote. Ran candidates in all 264 ridings; elected 92 MPs. (They received 3,718,000 votes IOTL, good for 38.42% of the popular vote, and returned 107 MPs.) The Liberals won only one province, Quebec; it was by building up large margins in their strongholds there that the popular vote was so close. (Also a truism IOTL; the Tories were able to form minority governments in 1957 and 1979, despite winning fewer votes than the Grits, because of their more efficient vote distribution.)
New Democratic Party ("Dippers"): Led by David Lewis, MP for York South, Ontario. Won 1,685,000 votes, or 17.32% of the popular vote. Ran candidates in 249 ridings; elected 28 MPs. (They received 1,726,000 votes IOTL, good for 17.83% of the popular vote, and returned 31 MPs.) The NDP won only one province, British Columbia, where the party formed government at the provincial level. They won no seats east of Ontario.
Social Credit ("Socreds" in English, "Créditistes" in French): Led by Réal Caouette, MP for Témiscamingue, Quebec. Won 780,000 votes, or 8.01% of the popular vote. Ran candidates in 171 ridings; elected 19 MPs. (They received 731,000 votes IOTL, good for 7.55% of the popular vote, and returned 15 MPs.) All of their MPs were elected from the province of Quebec, where they ran candidates in every riding.
Two (2) independents - former (and future) PC MP Roch LaSalle of Joliette, Quebec, and former Liberal Lucien Lamoureux of Stormont-Dundas, Ontario, the Speaker of the House of Commons (who had decided to follow the otherwise strictly British convention of ending any party affiliation upon being created Speaker) were elected.
Miscellany
This was the first time that the Tories had been in government since 1963, nine years earlier, under former Prime Minister John G. Diefenbaker (who continued to serve as an MP).
A number of close contests were fought on the riding level. One of the most "epic" was the rematch of the 1968 contest in Oshawa-Whitby, where defeated former cabinet minister Michael Starr of the PCs and incumbent NDP MP Ed Broadbent squared off against each other once again. In one of the narrowest victories of the election, Starr was able to triumph over Broadbent, returning to office and to cabinet. (This one was surprisingly close IOTL; however popular Broadbent - the future leader of the NDP IOTL - may have been with the general public, the good people of his riding seemed to be a lot more reserved about him. ITTL, after losing, he tries for a rematch in the following election, only to lose again and then deciding to return to his prior career as an academic.)
The Tories elected only three MPs from Quebec, all of whom were appointed to cabinet. Georges Valade, who represented a Montreal riding, was created Minister for Sport, in anticipation of the Olympic Games to be held there in 1976. (Valade, of Sainte-Marie, Quebec, is the third PC MP from Quebec, joining Heward Grafftey and Claude Wagner, elected IOTL. Valade had been an MP since 1962, and only narrowly lost his seat in this election, and then again in a rematch in 1974. His presence in the House ITTL gives the Tory government a seat in Montreal, the largest city in Canada.)
Rationale
Since this entire section is going to be out-of-universe, I'll eschew the annotation-style text here. As with so many elections, the question should not be "Why did Stanfield win", but rather "Why did Trudeau lose"? So, why did he lose? Well, Trudeau was known IOTL for his dynamism and charisma, but at the same time, he was very rude, pushy, impolite, brash, crude, and petulant. Regardless of his policies, he was very much a rebellious teenager: "Father" was the strict disciplinarian USA, and "Mother" was the country's British Imperial heritage. I'm going to posit that he, like so many others in this era, thrived largely because he could position himself against the quintessential "boogeyman": Richard Nixon. He invited draft dodgers to Canada with open arms; he took a strong stand against the overseas quagmire; he gloated about his harmonious and tolerant policies in contrast to the self-destructive tendencies of the United States. And naturally, certain groups of people rallied to him; however, he faced considerable resistance. Without the leverage of Nixon, he really has nothing to push against, which makes him look like less of a hero in that respect. And that is what allows critical voices to be heard more clearly: on matters involving the military, athletics, the economy, official bilingualism, etc. It also allows someone with less polish and more substance to come out ahead for once, and so he does. I may yet mention some of Stanfield's policies in the cycles to come.
And, as previously mentioned, the "Sports Pledge" of TTL is merely the icing on the cake. All that said, if anyone has any further questions about the election, or about how elections in Canada work, or the Westminster Parliamentary system in general, please feel free to ask.