Mkemp wrote:
Otto's enemies forgot Niccolo Machiavelli's dictum "If an injury has to be done to a man it should be so severe that his vengeance need not be feared."
That assumes you can get at the 'man' directly which is unlikely. However if you can use a blow to 'cripple' a man enough to achieve a goal and you can survive the retaliation you are advised to take the shot as long as it continues to move things forward to your ultimate conclusion. There are risks in any endeavor, it is how you manage them and when to choose to take higher ones for higher gain that you win.
Killing one of Otto's illegitimate children uninvolved in the family business is only going to stoke his vengeance. And all of his other children as well.
Otto is the kind of man who will tend to quash any challenge with excessive force if he can so ANY blow was going to invite retaliation. Unfortunately for Otto he probably KNOWS who's doing this and how they expect him to react so he can in fact NOT react the way he may want too. ("The obviously easiest and most direct path is always mined" it's a truism
) If the enemy knew his connection to Joseph then they probably knew that Kat knew Joseph and therefore the targeting, and timing, was obviously directed in several directions. I don't at all suspect that Kat being in police training was not accounted for and her reaction was frankly everything the enemy could have hoped for. Official attention is not going to be focused on Otto because it is the only 'side' the officials KNOW about. That is going to limit Otto even more. Further, in reality Kat is going to be put into a position where she will have to 'prove' beyond a doubt that she's not in her father's pocket and in such a way that this will be known in Otto's community to so she will be well and truly 'burned' as an implied or possible 'asset'.
Then there's Hans and if he finds out about Joseph which as I've stated I highly doubt is NOT going to happen one way or another. Hans will have blood in his eye and want to go gunning for Otto immediately and the rest of the family will have to sit on him or at least keep him in check. (Though to be honest I don't think it's going to be as bad as Heinrich and Kat think as Hans has matured quite a bit. Oh he'll lay Otto out the moment he sees him but he won't go LOOKING for him, he's now officially NOT worth the effort) At which point ALL the 'soft' support and power that side of the family might have be used for by implication or suggestion for Otto is gone. That side of the family is now so high profile that the 'officials' can NOT allow them to get involved at any level and will have them under a very big magnifying glass. That includes any and all Otto's power and support options, (real or implied) are reduced again as are his options.
While the family 'might' want to get Joseph's 'killer' that in and of itself could (probably will) cause issues especially if the enemy can actually throw clues around that Joseph WAS tied to Otto's activities even if they turn out to be false in the end. Further due to that very heavy 'official' involvement when, (not if) the "killer" turns up and it is plausibly given that it was some minor criminal (expendable) then whether they or he like it or not OFFICIALLY Otto and the family will have to accept that things are 'resolved' and leave it alone. If Kat or someone else from the family gets a "lucky" break it will be officially suspected and marginalized. Unfortunately it HAS to be given who they are and while there are ways around that which I'm VERY sure Anton will be glad to suggest and/or facilitate unless the enemy is VERY stupid... (or 'stupid-luck-and-happenstance' jumps in
) there will be enough cut-outs in place to compartmentalize the damage. In the end Otto's power and resources (and options) are reduced again.
Have no doubt that Otto will be out for blood no matter what but his options are significantly limited due to WHO his family has become no matter how that appeared in the past. Since "everyone" knows this about him he can be assured he will no longer be 'below' the radar and everyone on HIS side will know this too. Again, well you get the picture I hope...
This appears to be a very carefully selected and aimed 'targeted' operation designed to get exactly the reactions and responses that will flow from it. I is a calculated risk to reduce Otto to ineffectiveness with the risks that:
1) Otto will throw is organization into a total war against the person he 'thinks' did this, (rather low even if he KNOWS who did it under the circumstances)
2) Kat will go on a vengeance quest dragging in what resources she can (Again low risk given her situation and official positions even if she wanted to which is unlikely given her current career choice. She wants justice not vengeance. No matter what though she and the 'family' are safe at this point due to official interest. This in fact would have been what was planned for I think. If Kat tried this it is clear that the 'officials' will reign her in if nothing else. Very low risk)
3) Otto will accept the current outcome but plan 'vengeance' down the road short of total war (Most likely outcome but Otto has to wait till official attention dies down and there is a high chance that won't ever happen now due to his families high profile. Meanwhile he's been shown to be vulnerable and his resources and support overrated. This is the most likely outcome and probably the one planned)
4) The official attention causes Otto to become vulnerable or exposed and a shot can be taken at him. (High risk/High reward but low probability. Still this will be planned and watched for)
5) Official attention on Otto exposes or threatens "other" organizations allied with or near to Otto's. (Moderate Risk/Moderate Reward as this is probably part of the 'main' plan anyway. While it is possible this can 'blowback' on the enemy in fact the majority of the 'annoyance' will be directed at Otto because his family connections are the cause of this overblown attention. And again as this official attention is now likely never to go away Otto is not marginalized and less feared and/or useful as an ally or enemy due to same. Best but not likely immediate case is all other organizations unite in 'easing' Otto and his organization out of the picture. Best-best case is that Otto takes 'exception' to this and fights back at which point he and his organization are squashed by both sides. Worst case is all cut-outs fail and evidence ties everything to one organization at which point a future 'total war' between that organization and Otto's is pretty much a given. If the enemy isn't prepared for this they would not have kicked it off. Official attention will of course be heavy on both organizations but everyone else will duck-and-cover and wait to pick up the pieces. Call it 50/50 with the 'winner' probably getting taken apart by everyone else once the heat dies down anyway)
6) "Officials" side with Otto and enemy organization is exposed and destroyed. (Worst case and oddly enough a good outcome for the majority as Otto's organization would not survive such 'support' as they will no longer be trusted or seen as part of the 'underworld' anymore. The 'enemy' loses but frankly this gets rid of Otto as well and probably with a bit less collateral damage than an all-out war. Very low probability though can't be discounted.
And on if one really wants to analyze it to death but really there are very few significantly 'bad' outcomes for the 'enemy' here other than those that might occur anytime you poke the bear. If you planned it right you'll generally survive the experience at least the first couple of time...
Randy
