Solar Dreams: a history of solar energy (1878 - 2025)

(Posted prematurely, that's why you have a weird notification)

To be honest, I only have a faint idea of what will happen in the next 30 or so years, because I intend for the Butterflies to flap very intensely in this timeline.

The direction it is taking, however, is one where fossil fuels face much greater and earlier competition from renewable sources.

The earlier development of the Walipini, for example, has a double significance:

1.- It shifts economies of scale back to small producers. A small farmer and his family could provide fruit year round even in colder climates. Their operations are more profitable than the United Fruit Company, and could outcompete them in price if it came to it.

Secondary effects of this is a much more stable Latin America, without the UFC having the resources of OTL. Another effect would be a more varied diet, and more ingredients for local cuisines. Also, less need for refrigeration.

2.- The Walipini strongly hints towards the use of geothermal energy. Not like the one found on Iceland (a country which I'd rather not speak of, for personal reasons :p), but Geothermal Heat Pumps. In an age before electricity, and one with much less reliable distribution networks, noticing that the ground remains at a stable temperature year-round and creates a differential with air temperature will have a tremendous impact on domestic heating and refrigeration.

The reason I mentioned Iceland is because the ground temperature is hotter there, in peninsula Scandinavia the ground temperature is lower (but still high enough to make the walipini revolutionary.

As for how these renewable technologies would affect international relations, that's also something I can't answer confidently without further research and worldbuilding. The most obvious is that reduced dependency on fossil fuels will be a relief to countries that don't produce them, and previously unimportant desert zones become much more valuable. The French would want to hold to Algeria much longer, Namibia might see far heavier industrialization, Chile will probably look at those nitrate fields and say "you know what? Keep them. We have more important things to do anyways." and begin a serious effort of industrialization. And so on and so forth.

I think the main benefit of solar energy will not be as much industrial, but simply that that don’t need to invest as much in infrastructure. Also I think the fact that they can make local pumps, which doesn’t need outside fuel is far more revolutionary than a few textile mills. A village can far easier irrigate its fields, drain wetland or desalinate. Desert coastal towns can get far easier access to fresh water. The benefit with pumps over factories is that pumps can better afford the lost hours and days to bad weather.

In general I expect a significant larger German population in Namibia, which will affect the position of it after any. alternative Great War. But for France I think the limit is the population at home, so I expect little change to Algeria, Sahel is far more interesting as solar power enable far better local development.
 
I agree, but it’s also a question of the crop, as example for banana light is more important than heat, as such bananas grown in a heated greenhouse in Europe have a smaller crop yield than banana grown in Africa. As a general rule tropical fruits with several annual harvests do less well, while annual vegetable, fruit and berry crops do far better. So things like chocolate nut, banana etc. will only be grown in war time, where access abroad is limited, while tomato, pepper, cucumber, strawberries, grapes, oranges, salats and similar crops[1] will be competitive or better even in peace time.
That's fair, but I was particularly responding to the point about United Fruit and American interference in Central America, as you can see from the fact that I spent half of the post discussing them. A change where Northern European, Russian, and Canadian (and perhaps some areas of the United States, northern China, and so on) have better access to temperate fresh fruits and vegetables is definitely significant and interesting, but it's not going to break the various American companies that spread their tendrils out to tropical territories for tropical plants.
 
I would be cautious in assuming that this development will greatly shift the economics of fruit production; to use an example from OTL, while the Dutch have become major agricultural producers due to the use of greenhouses, they haven't completely replaced growing food in (in their case) southern and central Africa and shipping or flying it north to Europe. The thing is that the efficiency of agricultural production is not something you can just sum up by saying "this is more efficient" or "this is less efficient," but rather depends on what resources you're looking to use efficiently. Specifically, there's really four kinds of efficiency in agriculture: labor efficiency, land efficiency, capital efficiency, and natural resource efficiency (mostly water, especially groundwater). Often, there are significant tradeoffs between these kinds of efficiency--being highly land efficient, for instance, usually requires large labor inputs.

To see an example of this in action, compare the modern American grain farm to a subsistence agricultural producer. The former is very labor efficient, in general--only a handful of farmers are needed to produce a large amount of food. But this comes at the cost of using huge amounts of land, massive amounts of capital (in the form of agricultural equipment and chemicals), and generally poor natural resource efficiency (albeit somewhat depending on where the farm is located). The latter, meanwhile, tends to be quite efficient with land and certainly very efficient with capital and resource inputs, since the subsistence grower can't afford to smother their problems in machinery and chemicals or dig hugely deep wells or anything like that. But typically they require a lot of labor as a result. It's hard to say that one is more efficient in general than the other, because they're optimizing for their particular economic situation: the United States has expensive labor and a lot of wealth, so optimizing on labor costs makes economic sense, whereas the subsistence producer has cheap labor and little wealth, so it makes more sense to substitute labor for capital.

When it comes to United Fruit they have the advantage over greenhouse producers of economizing on several of these axes simultaneously. Most obviously, since they're growing bananas (or coffee, pineapples, etc.) in a natural tropical environment they have lower capital costs--they don't need to build greenhouses at all. Since they're growing those foods with poor Central Americans instead of rich Estadounidese, they have lower labor costs. The fertility of the land and tropical environment also mean relatively efficient use of land and natural resources, too. So I suspect that they would be able to outcompete domestic producers of those same goods, even without taking into account corporate naughtiness like dumping to drive greenhouse producers out of business or the like, or things like microclimate effects on coffee flavor (since that wouldn't really be a point of interest for a hundred years or so).

Moreover, United Fruit also has another advantage over domestic producers--it has a distribution network. That's actually quite a hard problem to crack, and gives them multiple options to adjust and stick around. If these greenhouses really do shift things in a big way towards small producers, then they can shift into being a processor and distributor rather than a producer, as they did in reality eventually. This would still give them huge influence in Central American politics, unfortunately, as long as agricultural production for export remains an important part of their economies.

I think the UFC's method of production is more similar to modern monocrop farming than the more common diversified farms of the era, where one could expect to see many different crops over a smaller area, in part due to the relative inefficiency of transport during the 19th century which made difficult the specialization of land use for a single crop. Towns had to supply themselves to a much greater extent than in our times.

Greenhouses - including the walipini - would be capital-intensive at first, but these costs can be offset somewhat in the long run by the inherent isolation of a greenhouse, which reduces the need for agrichemicals and pesticides.
They will remain labor-intensive, and they don't offer an easy means for mechanization, which will dull any edge they have over traditional farming later in the 20th century.

The competition I was speaking of with United Fruit won't come item-by-item, I don't know if it is actually possible to farm tropical fruit like bananas in a greenhouse, which at least gives me the intuition that it is difficult to impossible. Hence, they will remain the main producers of tropical fruit.

However, the Walipini has its own set of advantages. It can be built locally, reducing the distribution costs or need for refrigeration. It can produce off-season, furthering reducing costs of fruit during winter. Even if the price of bananas isn't affected by these factors, the decrease in price of other fruits will decrease the demand for tropical fruit specifically (and to a lesser extent, of other types of food).

Something similar goes for distribution, at least in the early part of the 20th century. The world is much less urbanized and the logistics needed to feed a city aren't as needed, nor do they exist to the degree needed to obtain the economies of scale that make a big corporation profitable. Most farms serve their surroundings, and each farmer could be seen as its own vertically-integrated unit in charge of production, distribution and marketing.

So, United Fruit will still exist, and will still meddle in internal affairs of Central America, but they'll have less budget to maneuver. Which might also mean that Central America itself is poorer in this timeline.
 
. But for France I think the limit is the population at home, so I expect little change to Algeria, Sahel is far more interesting as solar power enable far better local development.
Many, many pied noirs were non-French. Italians, Greeks, Spanish, Levantine Christians, etc. A lot of those places also sent a ton of immigrants to the US and the southern Cone during the same time periods, so there is room to divert some of the flow that went across the Atlantic OTL. A more productive and wealthier Algeria could get more pied-noirs in it.
 
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Of the Maghreb, besides becoming generally more European population wise, Libya might be the most significantly impacted due to energy starved Italy. Pumps and desalination is a game changer, esp. in less infrastructure needed for clean drinking water and farming, I think Australis, Namibia and Mauritania stand to greatly benefit from it.

As stated before, less infrastructure needed to develop colonies will really change the game. Refrigeration and Air Conditioning will make many places far more bearable.
 
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Part 8
Part 8: Gathering steam

Iquique, Tarapacá
March 1886


Alejandro Puig enjoyed his time in the city. He could visit a proper bar and drink a proper beer, instead of the Pisco that was all the people in Almonte seemed to drink, although Mouchot provided the town with a few bottles of wine made with the same grapes used for the spirit. The frenchman was serious about his wine, and his small production was rather good, which confused Puig to no end. It didn't bothered him, though, and he had grown fond of Mouchot's cooking.
After he finished his beer, he went to the Postal Office to see if he or the Franco-Chilena had received any mail. He took his time, buying some fruit to bring back to Almonte, chatting with the locals about the news - the great topic was the "marine occupation" by the British Navy on Valparaíso and San Antonio, which was enough to keep the Chilean Navy in check - and reading the newspapers. He noticed that El Mercurio de Valparaíso was smaller, which put a smile on Alejandro's face. A sign of the times, and a consequence of the Conservatives' reckless brutality.
He waited in line a few minutes, exchanged words with the clerk, and then received the usual bundle: some orders for the domestic boilers, correspondence in french for Mouchot, and a few letters for him and Constantino. And then, not one but two letters that he couldn't quite parse due to their importance.
The first was signed by Isidora Goyenechea and with the seal of the Lota-Cousiño Coal Company. The second was a letter by Ramon Barros Lucos, the director of the Society for the Promotion of Industry, this one with a wax seal. Puig looked at the two pieces of paper, awestruck... he knew he had other errands to run in Iquique, but for his life he couldn't remember them. He hurried outside the post office, and hired the first stagecoach he saw. He paid extra to get to Almonte fast.

It took four hours. For eteran hours to get to the town, and when he got there, he spared no time with formalities. He called Constantino, who was overseeing the workers and the production. He then startled Mouchot, who was lost in his designs and formulas. Once the three were gathered, he produced the two letters.
"Ladies first" Puig said before opening the envelope from Lota. Puig was a crude man, but he could tell that this letter came from Isidora Goyenechea's own hand. The manager of that coal operation, the richest person in Chile, and probably one of the richest in the world. He started reading aloud, but it was in French and he didn't want to butcher the language in front of Mouchot, so he gave it to him. Which proved to be a mistake, as the man fainted after a few sentences. Serrano continued once he had regained consciousness. The lady had requested five hundred domestic heaters and fifty sanitizers. She also wanted to schedule a visit the Franco-Chilena, stressing her interest in the technology and possibilities of solar energy for industrial purposes.
After reading it, there was silence for a few minutes. Nobody knew just what to do, nobody knew even what to say after receiving the news. Alejandro only knew to serve three cups of wine. Not to celebrate, they were all too stunned for that. But the next letter would be just as heavy hitting, and being a little drunk would help in taking it better.
And the hit came, just as predicted. Ramón Barros Luco opened by noticing that Mouchot's devices were becoming all the rage in Santiago, with one even installed in La Moneda, which had then prompted the interest on some industrialists onto the "fuel-less boiler" that powered the TSC, but the device had been dismantled and thus nobody could test it. Nevertheless, they had reason to believe that it worked as intended, because the accounting of the TSC made sense. It only made sense if they were using some sort of fuel-less power device. Barros Luco went on about having read Mouchot's work, La Chaleur Solaire et Ses Applications Industrielles, and inquired about the factibility of using solar concentrators for mining operations. "If Solar Concentrators can acheive and sustain temperatures useful for copper smelting applications, and do so at a lower cost than traditional methods, then we could revitalize the copper industry which is now languishing due to the low prices on international markets".

The three men looked at each other. This was it. This was what the breakthrough they were looking for. Puig and Serrano raised their glasses to toast, but Mouchot didn't. He was crying. A lifetime of work, almost forty years of effort, and it was just starting to pay at last.

Bletchley, England

Both Morgan and Damian Cotrell agreed on something: it was a miserable day, even in England. Damian, with his experience at sea, could take it better than Morgan but neither liked it. They wouldn't be running errands if it wasn't of the utmost importance, and receiving an entire section of the Tarapacá Boiler required their oversight. It required the work of forty men, unloading four train wagons and then loading them to ones pulled by oxen, and then the day-long trip to the Cotrell Estate. Miserable work, for a miserable day. The men, however, worked fast and efficiently, motivated by a good pay financed by Morgan.
He felt he was indulging his brother, and for his life he couldn't see how this array of mirrors could compete with coal. But Damian saw something, and he knew his machines well enough to have authority in the matter. And so they pressed onwards.

Damian was pressed for time. He only had one week of leave left, and wanted to set up the boiler before embarking again. He spent the following days directing the reconstruction of the boiler, then coating it on grease to slow down the rust it would inevitably form in the wet english weather. Damian often imagined the machines he served as living being, it helped to understand them if he could say they were happy, or angry, or in pain. And this boiler, this machine made in the desert, he could tell it felt unwelcomed in this weather. Someday, he hoped, he could find it a better home, maybe in Egypt or Australia. But right now, he needed it to be in the center of the world. He needed the contacts and the learned minds and the opportunists and others to see the potential of his machine. He regretted not getting the chance to see the machine in action, but he trusted that his brother would follow his detailed instructions and making the machine fully operational during summer.

With the widespread adoption of the domestic water heater system developed by Franco-Chilean Solar Power Company, came notoriety to its' inventor which had evaded him during his early years in Chile (something exacerbated by the TSC' hermetic nature). Although somewhat detached from the daily operations of the Franco-Chilena, the profitability of the design allowed Augustin Mouchot greater freedom to experiment with designs. During this period, Mouchot mostly tackled the problem of tracking and focusing the moving rays of the sun. The early solar concentrator could melt a fist-sized rock into lava within two minutes after some improvements like the addition of a fresnel lens focus, but keeping the parabolic mirror at the optimal angle proved a challenge in an era before the most basic automation.

More important than the research done by Mouchot during this period was the aforementioned notoriety, which reached the upper echelons of Chilean society. Specifically, it gained the interest of Isidora Goyenechea, the manager of the Lota coal mines and the most important captain of industry in the country. Ms. Goyenechea had noticed the work of Mouchot much earlier than other Chileans, as the success of the Mouchot-Puig boiler greatly reduced the sales of coal to the TSC. No other mention to solar energy or its inventors are done on her epistolary records until a visit to Santiago. It is believed that during this visit she witnessed a solar water heater in action, which renewed her interest in solar energy.
A benevolent woman who overlooked the wellbeing of her employees, she quickly realized that these water heaters could improve the quality of the housing she provided for the miners (which was already high by standards of the day) at a comparatively low investment, without wasting valuable coal.
It is believed that altruism wasn't her only motivation, as several of these heaters were modified to track the amount of water used, and she appointed a manager to keep records on its usage and estimate the amount of "coal" they generated. She also motivated the Society for Promotion of Production (or SOFOFA as it was known in Spanish) to reach out to Mouchot and inquire about the possibilities of his designs.

In stark contrast to later energy barons like John D. Rockefeller, Isidora Goyenechea saw solar energy not as competition, but as a potential new business venture, and one that could make other businesses more efficient and thus more profitable. Her impact on the early development of solar energy will be further explored on the next chapters, but for now it suffices to say that there's a reason why Goyenechea is the third most frequent odonym in Chile, after O'higgins and Prat.
 
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I wonder how the French are feeling as the Solar Race heats up. Both Germany and Britain embracing and eventually benefitting from the labor and ingenuity of a Frenchman, one whom they themselves dismissed. It might be even more exacerbated due to the Revanchist sentiment so prevalent in French society at the moment as newspapers latch onto it.
 
I wonder how the French are feeling as the Solar Race heats up. Both Germany and Britain embracing and eventually benefitting from the labor and ingenuity of a Frenchman, one whom they themselves dismissed. It might be even more exacerbated due to the Revanchist sentiment so prevalent in French society at the moment as newspapers latch onto it.

France still has Abel Pifre, who was an assistant to Mouchot and kept perfecting his work during the 1880s. It's just that I don't know how to fit him into the story. Maybe once the main European rivals start showing the potential of solar energy (and rumours of a South American republic doing funny stuff with mirrors get around), he'll get a lot of investment.

But I have this rough idea of people and events that lead to technological advancements and changes in technology, and Pifre doesn't remains an unknown in it.

thus nobody

I was certainly expecting the coal company to try to crush them, so news that they aren't is surprisingly welcome.
Even in places usually bad for solar having the option will mean less coal used.

Given that Isidora Goyenechea was an early promoter of hydroelectricity in Chile, this wouldn't be out of character for her. She is one of the few uncontroversial figures in Chilean history, remembered as a philantropist, a fair boss with a developed sense of social justice, and an innovator. Just as electricity and hydro power, I believe that if she had known the potential of solar energy, she would have promoted and tried to capitalize on it.
 
Isidora Goyenechea seems a very interesting person indeed. A captain of industry in a time dominated by men, who is actually interested in the welfare of her workers and innovating rather than killing competing ideas. Isidora Goyenechea seems like the investor our inventors need!

Good luck to the chaps in Britain- we do get enough UV to keep most water heating solar working and elecy generating even on shitty days, but that's with more modern solar panels. Hopefully they get a great spring and summer to demonstrate the concept of the boiler without hurting themselves.

Just as a thought London had a huge network of steam powered power supply at this time that ate coal at a terrifying rate, something like the Solar collector might be of interest to the London Hydraulic Power Company.
 
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There are designs for Deep Winter Greenhouses which use fans to circulate heat from the sun into a bed of rocks underneath the greenhouse. Deep Winter Greenhouses usually face East West with South Facing Angled Glazing to absorb heat. The Deep Winter Greenhouse is a passive solar design which can grow crops year round. Not oranges but lettuces, herbs, brassicas, asian greens and sprouts. It would probably be an excellent adjunct to the Walpini increasing the variety of crops.
 
Archimedes' popularity TTL will be quite a thing, having preceded Mouchot thousands of years ago. Alternate history ITTL too, with the twin principals of Steam Engine and Solar Reflectors having existed since antiquity. Might give a boost to classicism.
 
Archimedes' popularity TTL will be quite a thing, having preceded Mouchot thousands of years ago. Alternate history ITTL too, with the twin principals of Steam Engine and Solar Reflectors having existed since antiquity. Might give a boost to classicism.

Maybe, yeah. I don't know if it's a good thing or not, that the ancient world narrowly avoided an industrial revolution because slave labour was cheap and widespread: the Romans already wrecked havoc on the environment of the Mediterranean with nothing but pre-industrial technology, I don't even want to know what could've they done if they'd had access to solar and steam energy.
 
In stark contrast to later energy barons like John D. Rockefeller, Isidora Goyenechea saw solar energy not as competition, but as a potential new business venture, and one that could make other businesses more efficient and thus more profitable.
Foreshadowing trouble I see? Well, let's hope this time the forces of the fossil fuel industry aren't as victorious as OTL.

Also, I think you forget to threadmark the update.
 
Maybe, yeah. I don't know if it's a good thing or not, that the ancient world narrowly avoided an industrial revolution because slave labour was cheap and widespread: the Romans already wrecked havoc on the environment of the Mediterranean with nothing but pre-industrial technology, I don't even want to know what could've they done if they'd had access to solar and steam energy.

The Romans did a number on some Spanish hills using only Iron Age technology. To think what they'd be capable of accomplishing with working fluids is ugly.

But the aeolipile wasn't a feasible design for a steam turbine and the metallurgy just wasn't there to make anything more advanced for the next millennia. If I had to guess, wind power would be a much more suitable candidate for early non-animal power, and could have filled a lot of the roles of steam engines.
 
Wind power, water power, and if Ctesebius had gotten it right, air pumps, using bellows to fill air tanks. They had both bellows and pistons. Archytas had the idea of rocket power. If you add it up, possibly you could have a form of primitive compressed air.
 
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