The success of the British attack on Rhodes, the largest amphibious assault by the allies to date so far in the current conflict, and the largest amphibious attack by the British since Gallipoli during World War I. Will have major political consequences long and short term, both in the Mediterranean and elsewhere, both on the allied side and among the axis nations. For the British the actual invasion falls somewhere between a minor action and a vigorous live fire exercise, but most of all it’s a very valuable training lesson. Small forests are going to have to be felled to provide the paper for all the various reports about what happened, and the subsequent discussion papers, followed by numerous instructional papers, training directives and pamphlets. From the simple covering advice to troops, such as how to prepare yourself and your equipment for a beach landing, to the more complex aimed at higher command levels. The process of gathering the information has already started, as troops, and various commanders will have begun to gather together for subsequent collation information. Just a simple questionnaire handed out to all participants, along with more detailed interviews of selected participants, will provide a lot of useful information.
Mountbatten will eventually return to the UK, and oversee a substantial expansion of Combined Operations, especially the planning department and the research department. He will also want to conduct even more operations ITTL, large and small than were conducted IOTL , plus numerous exercises to examine new ideas and equipment. Norway in particular is going to see even more raids, as this serves two purposes, its a valuable training ground, and it reinforces Hitler’s fear of a major invasion of Norway, and will ensure that valuable numbers of troops are deployed there. I expect that a Dieppe type raid will occur, the British need to find out if the capture of a port by direct assault is possible. In much the same way, the raid on St Nazareth, will take place, as rendering the Louis Joubert Dry-dock inoperable is a vital strategic move for the British. Hopefully with the advantages provided by the earlier and better results of British amphibious operations to date, both a raid on St Nazareth and a French port, will be less costly and more successful. In addition to the various departments set up by Combined Operations, I would expect a separate command whose primary task is the planning of the invasion and liberation of France.
On the political front there are numerous areas where the successful invasion of Rhodes is going to have significant consequences. Starting with Turkey which with both Crete and Rhodes under British control, is now in a difficult position, Turkish merchant ships can now safely access the world via protected waters and the Suez Canal, but at the same time the Germans and Italians sitting on their western border are going to be more insistent that Turkey is neutral. However with the French in the Levent going to be given a stark choice very soon, switch sides from Vichy to the Free French, or you will be invaded by land and sea. Turkey is going to find itself with two of the allied powers on its borders, and thus slowly being squeezed into taking a more pro allied position. For the remaining French colonies in Africa, the writing is on the wall, and there will be a progressive scramble to get the best deal possible as one by one they switch sides. About the only area of French colonies that will remain loyal to Vichy are in the Caribbean and South America, but even here they are going to have to accommodate increasing demands by the British and Americans. Not to provide facilities to the Kriegsmarine U-Boat arm directly in the form of refuelling, provisions etc, or indirectly by providing weather reports or a message forwarding service. Imports and exports are going to be strictly monitored, and no direct contact between Vichy and the colonies will be allowed.
Italy is in the worst position thanks to the grandiose ambitions of Benito, who jumped when he should have sat on his hands. Benito while far more intelligent than Adolf, was not in the same category as Francisco, and has made some serious mistakes. Italy has lost all of its overseas colonial possessions which it had gained since 1880 in East Africa and 1912 in North Africa and the Mediterranean, and it faces losing its remaining minor Mediterranean islands in the near future. While the Italian mainland along with Sicily and Sardinia, are going to be under increasing attack from the British in North Africa and Malta. As a combination of air raids and amphibious assaults stretch Italian resources more and more, as the British strengthen their position in the region. Along with providing the resistance in Greece and Yugoslavia support, which will be a strain on Italian German relations, as they get into disputes over who should be doing what to defend the region. While Benito is secure in his position for now, there will be some among the leadership who are contemplating replacing Benito with someone else, and doing a deal with the British.
Unfortunately Italian pride is going to get in the way of reaching a deal at present, and thus Italy is going to have to suffer in the meantime. While the British, and at this juncture of the war the Americans are going to have very little say in the matter. Might be prepared to compromise as to the fate of Benito, and allow the Italians to put him on trial before he is put up against a wall and shot. As apposed to him being handed over to the British, to stand trial for war crimes and having been found guilty, hung by his neck. There is no chance of any other than the minor islands in the Mediterranean, Italian colonies being returned to Italian control. Basically all the Italian island colonies in the Aegean, will be given to the Greeks, and Italian possessions in Africa will be managed by the British until they are given their independence. As for Yugoslavia, Greece and Albania they will be returned to their respective governments, which at this stage of the conflict means their respective monarchs. The British unlike the Americans not having a problem with monarchy, and with the respective communist resistance groups not having had the time to embed themselves, and the Soviets more concerned about events in the Soviet Union. I expect that the region is going to be very interesting for a number of years as the locals sort themselves out.
RR.