Sir John Valentine Carden Survives. Part 2.
- Thread starter allanpcameron
- Start date
More than likely given the UK only needs to support one front right now the UK probably set up and improve logistics within key areas.
Also, with fewer men committed to the front, a better job can be done maintaining the rails themselves. Let's face it, Britain is up most of the 220K casualties from OTL North Africa, probably most of the 25K+ from Greece and Crete, most of the 130K from Malaya, and probably most of the 86K from Burma. Add all that together, and you're looking at a manpower improvement of better than 400K men, perhaps even more, given the better evacuation from France. And those men not only don't have to be replaced, but they're more experienced too, so the Army is up in both quantity and quality, while still leaving Britain with a stronger civilian workforce.
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allanpcameron
Donor
The discussion about the Burma Road to China is a wee bit outside my focus of interest, but nonetheless very interesting. At this point in 1942 the Americans are still gearing up, so the real difference in material won't arrive until 1943, roughly. Think of the DC3/Dakota/C47 which played a crucial part in the Far East theatre, are only starting to be delivered in early 1942, Douglas still has to build more factories to meet the demand.
Regarding the fact that the British are meeting more of their need for tanks from their own production, my theory is that it is the RAF who will have to rely more on American built bombers than the army relying on Shermans. There has to be some give in the British war economy to produce these better AFVs. Numbers of tanks being produced are a bit higher (maybe 10%), losses are lower, which helps, and types being built are streamlined. But, and I believe, because of the army's reliance on American tanks, more production capacity was able to be given to Bomber Command OTL. A bit less might mean more B17s and B24s rather than Stirlings and Halifaxes. If Meteor production is being brought forward considerably ITTL, then there has to be a knock-on effect somewhere in the economy, an in my humble opinion, I think the RAF will fell the squeeze more than the army. However, I am often wrong!
Allan.
Regarding the fact that the British are meeting more of their need for tanks from their own production, my theory is that it is the RAF who will have to rely more on American built bombers than the army relying on Shermans. There has to be some give in the British war economy to produce these better AFVs. Numbers of tanks being produced are a bit higher (maybe 10%), losses are lower, which helps, and types being built are streamlined. But, and I believe, because of the army's reliance on American tanks, more production capacity was able to be given to Bomber Command OTL. A bit less might mean more B17s and B24s rather than Stirlings and Halifaxes. If Meteor production is being brought forward considerably ITTL, then there has to be a knock-on effect somewhere in the economy, an in my humble opinion, I think the RAF will fell the squeeze more than the army. However, I am often wrong!
Allan.
24 May 1942. Singapore.
allanpcameron
Donor
24 May 1942. Singapore.
General Auchinleck, having reviewed the situation in Rangoon with General Alexander and Lieutenant General Slim had flown onto Singapore. Lieutenant General Alan Cunningham (GOC 12th Army) and his senior officers, had given their report of the situation in Malaya. III Indian Corps had managed to advance past Jitra, but had halted before the Thai border to dig in. V Corps were now fully arrived on the last two convoys, but would take a few months to be operational. The Australian Corps were resting and rebuilding, the Stuart light tanks of the First Armoured Brigade had arrived, and were learning the lessons of combat from the reconnaissance regiments. The other Malay units had secured the eastern shore of the country all the way to Kota Bharu, where once again they had dug in for the monsoon season. Intelligence suggested that now that the Philippines were completely in their hands, the Japanese would be reinforcing their troops in Thailand, Auchinleck was confident that the Japanese wouldn’t be able to reinforce sufficiently to overturn the advantages of the British Empire forces that had arrived or were due to arrive.
During his visit, Auchinleck had dinner with Manuel Quezon, the President of the Philippines. Quezon had been evacuated from Mindanao by HMS Porpoise, but had stayed on at Singapore to welcome the others that the Royal Navy were evacuating from the Philippines. Quezon was to fly with Auchinleck to Java, then onto Australia, before the long trip to Washington DC to confer with President Roosevelt.
The presumed loss of USS Permit and General MacArthur had meant that changes to how evacuation of personnel continued. The larger British Grampus class submarines (HMS Porpoise, Rorqual and Cachalot), in addition to HMS Severn, Clyde, Otus, Olympus had worked with some USN submarines on a system of evacuating as many as possible. The US submarines ferried the men off Mindanao and the other islands and brought them to the south of Palawan, where the Royal Navy picked them up and brought them back to Singapore. Having become known as the Magic Carpet, each round trip took about ten days for the submarines, and while there had been two encounters with Japanese forces, no damage had been inflicted by the enemy, though HMS Clyde had suffered mechanical difficulties leaving Singapore and had to abandon that mission.
In addition to the submarines, the fast minelayers, HMS Abdiel, Latona and Welshman, had all made the run twice. Each of these ships were able to bring off about one thousand people. The majority of the Americans were US Army Air Force Air Base personnel, some were Headquarters Staff of General Sharp’s Mindanao/Visayan Command. Some Americans, less than one hundred, chose to stay to take part in guerrilla or intelligence gathering activities. The majority of those brought off by the Royal Navy were Philippine soldiers from 81st and 102nd Divisions. A great many of the men of those Divisions had returned to their homes and would attempt to lie low. Those who decided to leave the islands were being shipped to Australia where they would be retrained and equipped as a Free Philippine Army Division. The fast mine-layers carried various weapons, radio equipment and other stores useful for a guerilla force and intelligence gathering.
General Auchinleck, having reviewed the situation in Rangoon with General Alexander and Lieutenant General Slim had flown onto Singapore. Lieutenant General Alan Cunningham (GOC 12th Army) and his senior officers, had given their report of the situation in Malaya. III Indian Corps had managed to advance past Jitra, but had halted before the Thai border to dig in. V Corps were now fully arrived on the last two convoys, but would take a few months to be operational. The Australian Corps were resting and rebuilding, the Stuart light tanks of the First Armoured Brigade had arrived, and were learning the lessons of combat from the reconnaissance regiments. The other Malay units had secured the eastern shore of the country all the way to Kota Bharu, where once again they had dug in for the monsoon season. Intelligence suggested that now that the Philippines were completely in their hands, the Japanese would be reinforcing their troops in Thailand, Auchinleck was confident that the Japanese wouldn’t be able to reinforce sufficiently to overturn the advantages of the British Empire forces that had arrived or were due to arrive.
During his visit, Auchinleck had dinner with Manuel Quezon, the President of the Philippines. Quezon had been evacuated from Mindanao by HMS Porpoise, but had stayed on at Singapore to welcome the others that the Royal Navy were evacuating from the Philippines. Quezon was to fly with Auchinleck to Java, then onto Australia, before the long trip to Washington DC to confer with President Roosevelt.
The presumed loss of USS Permit and General MacArthur had meant that changes to how evacuation of personnel continued. The larger British Grampus class submarines (HMS Porpoise, Rorqual and Cachalot), in addition to HMS Severn, Clyde, Otus, Olympus had worked with some USN submarines on a system of evacuating as many as possible. The US submarines ferried the men off Mindanao and the other islands and brought them to the south of Palawan, where the Royal Navy picked them up and brought them back to Singapore. Having become known as the Magic Carpet, each round trip took about ten days for the submarines, and while there had been two encounters with Japanese forces, no damage had been inflicted by the enemy, though HMS Clyde had suffered mechanical difficulties leaving Singapore and had to abandon that mission.
In addition to the submarines, the fast minelayers, HMS Abdiel, Latona and Welshman, had all made the run twice. Each of these ships were able to bring off about one thousand people. The majority of the Americans were US Army Air Force Air Base personnel, some were Headquarters Staff of General Sharp’s Mindanao/Visayan Command. Some Americans, less than one hundred, chose to stay to take part in guerrilla or intelligence gathering activities. The majority of those brought off by the Royal Navy were Philippine soldiers from 81st and 102nd Divisions. A great many of the men of those Divisions had returned to their homes and would attempt to lie low. Those who decided to leave the islands were being shipped to Australia where they would be retrained and equipped as a Free Philippine Army Division. The fast mine-layers carried various weapons, radio equipment and other stores useful for a guerilla force and intelligence gathering.
allanpcameron
Donor
Completely speculative that last lot. Used the Malta runs by said submarines and fast minelayers to surmise what might be happening.
If too far gone, just concentrate on the first paragraphs about the current situation in northern Malaya.
Allan
If too far gone, just concentrate on the first paragraphs about the current situation in northern Malaya.
Allan
I question how big a bite the tanks will take of the rest of the war economy. First there haven't been massive tank losses in NA TTL; but more significantly, early in the timeline it was described how sourcing engines, manufacturing, machine tools, etc. for tanks could not cut into the Air Ministry's little empire. Napier did not make 1 new Lion for the Valiants, it was all Meadows and Perkins. Likewise the companies making the Meteor were not making aero engines previously. Armor for tanks is not aluminum for planes. In OTL Packard produced 55000 merlins, with or without the new tanks, Britain is going to rely on America for engines if not whole planes. They wanted to stick the merlin in every plane they could.
Googling and double-checking the Churchill memoirs, it looks as if there may at one point have been a British plan or landing in Sicily in 1942 if they cleared North Africa but Vichy did nothing - Operation Whipcord.
The National Archive online apparently has a copy available to anyone who has an account with them. (I don't.
) https://discovery.nationalarchives.gov.uk/details/r/C9189938
This seems to have been a 'just in case' plan come up with in the autumn of 1941 in the original timeline, which ended up not being attempted because instead of the British clearing North Africa of Rommel, Rommel darned near cleared North Africa of the British, and I think the plan seems to have been made (the National Archive gives a date of October 1941) before Imperial Japan decided to go berserk - on which latter count (Imperial Japan having gone berserk) it might not be applicable in this timeline anyway.
The National Archive online apparently has a copy available to anyone who has an account with them. (I don't.
) https://discovery.nationalarchives.gov.uk/details/r/C9189938 This seems to have been a 'just in case' plan come up with in the autumn of 1941 in the original timeline, which ended up not being attempted because instead of the British clearing North Africa of Rommel, Rommel darned near cleared North Africa of the British, and I think the plan seems to have been made (the National Archive gives a date of October 1941) before Imperial Japan decided to go berserk - on which latter count (Imperial Japan having gone berserk) it might not be applicable in this timeline anyway.
Churchill really, really, liked his bombers though, and I think the plan after France (except de Gaulle) got invaded and conquered and went Vichy, but before Hitler invaded Russia, may have been 'bomb Germany and keep on bombing Germany, whilst trying to keep Germany and Italy confined to mainland Europe, and hope that Germany gets bored of being bombed and say "uncle" before the UK does...'
Possibly (at least initially) fewer troop losses than the original timeline could mean some of the manpower which otherwise would have gone straight into the army going into factories instead, but there's still going to be a nasty crunch at some point....
Ramp-Rat
Monthly Donor
The survival of President Quezon, and his cordial reception in Singapore, along with his freedom from the influence of Mac, along with the other major changes so far ITTL. Are going to promote a much better relationship between the British and the Americans, as without Mac’s interference a far more rational approach to cooperation can be taken. The OSS, which Mac was determined to keep out of his toy box , is going to find a welcome in both Singapore and Australia. It will be allowed to canvas among the evacuated Philippine troops for volunteers to join a commando force, to operate behind Japanese lines. And the OSS will be allowed to establish a training base in Australia, where the intense training can be conducted, with a mix of Anglo Australian, and American instructors. While the RN will be happy to provide a basic taxi service to and from the Philippines even after the Japanese have gained control. The RN is not going to provide an unlimited supply of submarines, as they do have more vital work to do, but one or two of the larger submarines already set up for supply missions, and a number of small local craft, will be available. As in addition to running missions to the Philippines, they will also be running missions to FIC and Southern China for Six and SOE. Once the Philippines have fallen the Fast Minelayers, will revert to their principal role, that of laying minefields in enemy waters. Which is going to seriously hamper Japanese supply operations in and around FIC and Thailand, as the Japanese don’t have the minesweepers available that they need to keep the various channels fully open.
In regards to Britain’s increased armoured vehicle production having a significant impact on her aircraft production, I think that this is unlikely, as others have pointed out the production facilities used by one are totally different from the other. Aircraft engines are built to a far higher standard than tank engines, and do not require so much specialist materials. As for Britain having no interest in China, that’s not true, Britain has both short term interests and long term interests. Short term, every Japanese soldier who is fighting the Chinese, is one less available to fight against the British, and every Japanese aircraft deployed in China against the American airforce, is also one less that can be deployed against the British. Thus supporting the movement of American Lend Lease over the Burma Road is in British best interests, even better if America can be encouraged to help pay for the improvements to the road. Long term, the British want their colony Hong Kong back, and would also like their Chinese concessions such as Shanghai returned. Post War with two of the three major competitors for the China trade removed, Germany and Japan, and only having to compete against America, the British will hope to make some serious money. Especially as Hong Kong is close to the heart of the Nationalist region, at Canton, and is the principal port for river craft on the Pearl river and its numerous tributaries including the Dong. And thus gives the British a major advantage over other nations trying to trade in the area, as in the majority of cases they will have to transfer the goods from their own ship to a British owned river boat.
As for shipping in general ITTL, the Anglo American alliance is going to go through some uncomfortable times up until the end of the year. While the is generally more shipping available, due to the greater British success in North Africa and the Mediterranean, plus the Far East. Which means that the Indian Ocean is basically an allied lake, and other than troop ships, there is little to no requirement for shipping to be convoyed. Allied shipping is still going to suffer as a result of the inexcusable failure of the USN, to prepare for a German submarine campaign in their home waters. Whether or stronger Britain will be more able to insist that measures are taken, such as the introduction of convoys and the imposition of a coastal blackout, is a question of our author, but these measures along with more aircraft devoted to anti submarine operations. Should be the end of the year have reduced the submarine threat to a minor annoyance, which is well under control. However the idea that the Americans can substantially increase their commitment to Britain, falls on a number of points. No mater how many troops are available, and right now that’s not very many, the British need time and resources to build the infrastructure to support them in the UK. This at the same time that they are trying to build the facilities the American airforce require to four fill their mission to bomb German and win the war. Add to that the British have taken measures to improve their western ports, which was required by the German capture of the European seaboard from Norway to Spain. While it should be possible to start to use Southampton more, the short route through the English Channel and into the Ports of London, will remain closed until the Germans have been removed from the region around Calais. As sailing big ships ether at night or in daylight, past big guns with the range to hit England from France, is not a good idea. That means that the Ports of London, which were at the time some of the biggest in the world, are going to remain underused. Only after the Calais gun batteries are put permanently out of action, will ships be able to sail up the channel and onto London, up until then all ships heading for London,are going to have to go around the top of Scotland then sail down the North Sea.
RR.
In regards to Britain’s increased armoured vehicle production having a significant impact on her aircraft production, I think that this is unlikely, as others have pointed out the production facilities used by one are totally different from the other. Aircraft engines are built to a far higher standard than tank engines, and do not require so much specialist materials. As for Britain having no interest in China, that’s not true, Britain has both short term interests and long term interests. Short term, every Japanese soldier who is fighting the Chinese, is one less available to fight against the British, and every Japanese aircraft deployed in China against the American airforce, is also one less that can be deployed against the British. Thus supporting the movement of American Lend Lease over the Burma Road is in British best interests, even better if America can be encouraged to help pay for the improvements to the road. Long term, the British want their colony Hong Kong back, and would also like their Chinese concessions such as Shanghai returned. Post War with two of the three major competitors for the China trade removed, Germany and Japan, and only having to compete against America, the British will hope to make some serious money. Especially as Hong Kong is close to the heart of the Nationalist region, at Canton, and is the principal port for river craft on the Pearl river and its numerous tributaries including the Dong. And thus gives the British a major advantage over other nations trying to trade in the area, as in the majority of cases they will have to transfer the goods from their own ship to a British owned river boat.
As for shipping in general ITTL, the Anglo American alliance is going to go through some uncomfortable times up until the end of the year. While the is generally more shipping available, due to the greater British success in North Africa and the Mediterranean, plus the Far East. Which means that the Indian Ocean is basically an allied lake, and other than troop ships, there is little to no requirement for shipping to be convoyed. Allied shipping is still going to suffer as a result of the inexcusable failure of the USN, to prepare for a German submarine campaign in their home waters. Whether or stronger Britain will be more able to insist that measures are taken, such as the introduction of convoys and the imposition of a coastal blackout, is a question of our author, but these measures along with more aircraft devoted to anti submarine operations. Should be the end of the year have reduced the submarine threat to a minor annoyance, which is well under control. However the idea that the Americans can substantially increase their commitment to Britain, falls on a number of points. No mater how many troops are available, and right now that’s not very many, the British need time and resources to build the infrastructure to support them in the UK. This at the same time that they are trying to build the facilities the American airforce require to four fill their mission to bomb German and win the war. Add to that the British have taken measures to improve their western ports, which was required by the German capture of the European seaboard from Norway to Spain. While it should be possible to start to use Southampton more, the short route through the English Channel and into the Ports of London, will remain closed until the Germans have been removed from the region around Calais. As sailing big ships ether at night or in daylight, past big guns with the range to hit England from France, is not a good idea. That means that the Ports of London, which were at the time some of the biggest in the world, are going to remain underused. Only after the Calais gun batteries are put permanently out of action, will ships be able to sail up the channel and onto London, up until then all ships heading for London,are going to have to go around the top of Scotland then sail down the North Sea.
RR.
They don't have to stop building tanks to build bulldozers and such. They just will build another factory to build what they need. Again this is not a computer game, the US will have no problem building what is needed with the resources they had. The US was actually discharging personnel after VE day and was not even inducting as many as they were at the same period the year before.
There might well be less work for the OSS to do, and the British and/or French might be unwilling to allow the OSS to operate on 'their turf'.
Ramp-Rat
Monthly Donor
I question how the Philippines would be regarded by either the French or the British as their turf, however should the OSS try to stick its nose into affairs in Thailand or FIC, they would find themselves having a very difficult time getting hold of resources. But the British will be more than happy for the OSS and American military to play games in the Philippines, as along with China, every Japanese soldier tied up there, is one less that can be deployed against the British forces.
RR.
I was meaning the FIC. OTL the British were doing badly, and so unable to protest, but here, their position is very much stronger, so they can afford to tell Roosevelt 'no' on the involvement of the OSS in FIC. I mean, it's not like the British couldn't try to set up a far-east office for the SOE.
Ramp-Rat
Monthly Donor
Which they did IOTL, both pre Japanese assault with the formation of Force 101, and during the war with Force 139, which went on to become the founders of the Communist led anti colonial forces during the Malayan Emergency.
RR.