An Iraqi Republican Guard T-72B proceeding north to Ahvaz, February 2nd 1994.
The Satrap's Hubris: Part One
January 17th 1994. 6:35AM. Safwan Air Base.
As the sun began to hit the desert, there was a flurry of activity at the recently renovated Safwan Air Base, nearing the borders of former Kuwait. It was initially repaired in 1992 after it struck by coalition forces during the Gulf War, but was expanded in mid 1993 as part of Saddam's ambitious plan. Thanks to the support of the Soviets in 1990 and 1991, Iraq now boasted one of the largest, strongest and most experienced air forces in the middle east. Not even Israel would dare attempt another raid on the reactivated Osirak reactor, thanks to two Kasta 2E complexes paid for by the Iraqis and built by the Soviets, the first oriented towards the west and the other towards the Gulf. The lessons of the soviet advisors had helped Iraq build a multi layered air defence system, almost as good as 1992 Warsaw Pact standard. It was with this system as a shield, and the Iraqi Air Force as a sword that Saddam planned to deliver the final blow to Khamenei. There was still a tripwire US presence in Saudi Arabia, and a peacekeeping force between him and the Saudis in Kuwait. There however was no peacekeeping force been him and Kuzenistan.
Beginning in 1993, preparations within the Iraqi General Staff rivaling those of Sadat's for the Yom Kippur War were ordered. Due to the presence of Soviet advisors and training personnel, Saddam knew that he had to keep it vague. There was no set date for an invasion, and the scenario being prepared was 'counter offensive', of course the many agents and spies who reported to the KGB in Iraq were more than capable of discerning this, they couldn't do much other than report that Saddam was interested in further warfare with Iran, which was something that the diplomatic ministry's own analysts were well aware of, and wasn't exactly new information. General Secretary Romanov himself had already visited Iraq to dissuade Saddam from further action, and it seemed to have been somewhat successful. However, this minor victory was only temporary. Saddam and the men he felt he could trust, although some of them moles, but were too tightly watched, were involved in the decision to go to war again with Iran.
The Iraqi Army, Republican Guard and Air Force were a different beast than they were at the height of their power in 1990 OTL, Iraqi aces who had fought American pilots instructed their new pilots, the lessons of modern air combat, the use of precision bombing raids and precision attacks were emphasized. In a swift Blitzkrieg, the Iraqis planned to breach the Al Faw Peninsula while destroying as much of the Iranian Air Force on the ground as possible, while immobilizing it's army and suppressing it's air defences. The Iraqis possessed tanks, IFVs, artillery and helicopters technologically beyond those of the Iranians. The only leverage Iran had was it's support of a Kurdish resistance movement which was faltering. When the offensive was launched on the 17th, surprise struck both the Soviets and Iranians, as the Iraqis had mobilized and deployed their forces under the auspices of training exercises, gave zero warning to the Soviets and attacked with everything they had; using a perpetuated border skirmish as justification.
Iraqi Infantry Fighting in the hills near Al Bowna'im, January 29th 1994.
Iran fought back as best as it could, F-14s, F-4 Phantoms, Hawk Missiles and the desperate fanaticism of religious and nationalistic motivation. But this would prove to not be enough, within about week, the Iranian Air Force was so depleted it was essentially absent from the rest of the war. Iranian anti aircraft weapons were reduced to AA guns defending cities or armed formations from helicopters and low flying planes. Iraq had total air superiority and struck with impunity. Khorramshahr and Abadan were seized within the first two days, and the Republican Guard spearheaded deep penetration into Iran. The Iranians did their best, fought asymmetrically, costing Iraqi forces losses with landmines and rapid RPG attacks, but they couldn't stop the overwhelming offensive power of Saddam's Army. They utilized geography, marshes and high heights to keep the Iraqis from seizing the advantageous position at Al Bowna'im, but otherwise were continually forced out of southern Khuzestan.
As the Iranian Army was mobilized, conscription instituted and hundreds of thousands rallied for the defence of its territory, there was little to be done as the Iraqis took Darkhovin, moved on to Chamian while encircling the city of Bandar, which continued fighting. By the second of February despite massive international protest, at the violation of UN resolutions, the ejection of Iraqi Embassies and widespread criticism, now increasing sanctions; the Iraqis looked ready to begin a major operation to encircle Ahvaz, the regional hub of southern Khuzestan while storming Bandar. The Soviet Reaction was furious, General Secretary Romanov's meeting with President Perot in Zurich was due on the 5th, and this was the backdrop he had to deal with while attempting to preach peace, reconciliation and detente. The Soviet's disavowed Saddam's invasion and announced that they would pull out their military personnel, while other plans were put into place. They did veto the UNSC resolution against Iraq, for the use of "
improper diplomatic terminology, and a wild mandate".
The Concert of Europe: Part One
Feburary 5th 1994. Zurich
Within the last year, there just as many changes occuring within Western Europe just as much as Eastern Europe; the European Union had taken the first steps out of its infancy and into its progression into a real institution. Across Europe, the groundwork for the introduction of the Euro, a common currency promoted economic speculation and growth based on the latter that helped jumpstart the European economy's recovery from the recessions that gripped the Western World in the early 1990s. Increasing economic links with the Eastern Bloc had also spurred economic growth. Poland in particular had introduced several 'special economic zones' with the consent of the Soviets to allow for western companies to invest in industrial development, to help alleviate the sluggish debt ridden Polish economy. The Europeans also benefited from increased trade with the Soviets for petroleum as well as for their cheap consumer goods. The Schengen agreement, inter European trade arrangements had also began to change the European economic landscape, slowly and surely at first, but beginning to accelerate.
In 1992, one of the prime opponents of European integration, John Major, had been dealt along with the British conservative party a major blow when revelations came to the surface that he had carried on an affair with Edwina Currie, a fact that was conveniently leaked to the Labour Party by an unknown source. The Labour Party had managed to utilize this to win the '92 election, only barely scraping with a majority by one or two seats, very close to a hung parliament. The Labour Party campaigned on mild skepticism towards integration, but also implied that they were open to the adoption of the Euro, as long as some protectionist measures for the working class were maintained. They also campaigned on a pro-detente policy in foreign relations, believing that the best way to meaningfully improve the human rights situation in the Eastern Bloc was diplomacy.
Helmut Kohl had only managed to hold on, but just barely, while Mitterrand also maneuvered and finessed their positions. However the former was becoming weaker and weaker, while the West German Economic sector was staunchly pro integration and generally liberal, the increasing radicalism of the left in the form of the urban terrorism of the Red Army Faction, spurred on by the Stasi resulted in firefights in Frankfurt, armoured car robberies, riots and the assassination of police and corporate elites. This sparked a feeling with a certain element in West Germany that felt like the Christian Democrats were too soft and too weak to deal with communists who were now running amok. Not only was the RAF committing terrorism wantonly, but the large left wing student associations and Antifa engaged in political violence and battles with West German police. Günter Deckert recently rising to power within the National Democratic Party of Germany seized on an ample political opportunity by swinging the party towards a more moderate tone. The previously the NDP in West Germany was regarded at worst as a neo-nazi organization, however Deckert instead promoted a program of 'Stop the Violence' and 'Standing against Communist Aggression' that had begun to appeal to harder right wing and nationalist elements in the CPU and CDU. This of course required him to officially renounce Hitler, the Third Reich and Holocaust denial, which resulted in a departure of the hardline extremists, which Deckert highly publicized. While many alleged that Deckert was simply trying to hide his truly fascist beliefs, he argued vehemently that this was political slander.
In Italy, relations between the Italian Communist Party and Soviet Union were generally mended, allowing for their covert support in twisting the massive public corruption scandal in their favor against the Christian Democrats. During the 1992 Elections, the Italian Communist Party had managed to win a slim majority in the election capitalizing on the self destruction of both the Socialist and Christian Democrat parties. This upset victory resulted in political chaos, mafia violence and massive controversy as the Communists set themselves to rebuilding Italy in their image, Achille Occhetto even began threatening to leave NATO. The Communist Party was somewhat tapered by it's coalition with the weakened Socialist Party, but found widespread support for some of their grandstanding positions.
All of these nations and more would be represented at the grand summit between the Soviet Union and United States, the first meeting of Romanov and Perot and the first meeting of the heads of the superpowers in almost a decade. As their mutual planes landed and the arrangements and itineraries put into action, would diplomacy work as the world was becoming increasingly destabilized? Detente was on the minds of both leaders so they could focus on domestic affairs but would the Zurich Summit create a framework for cooperation and mutual deescalation, or would the cold war continue to escalate?
Can the superpowers reach a consensus?
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