I think they will transit more to socialism in one warsava pact,i some how imagine they will try to go toward more technocratic approach where every small detail will be followed by computer(imagine Chinese social credit system taken to its extreme)
Romanov Ascendant: What if the Soviet Union survived?
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Well the Soviets could just "fix" the Geography problem by just waiting for the Artic Sea Ice to disappear, alongside with the Permafrost of the Northern Tundra and Siberia melting down as a result of Global Warming and Climate change, the only other nation to "benefit" from this catastrophic disaster will be Canada.
Of course the world will be a miserable and hellish place with death, overpopulation, famines, Refugees, wars, ecosystems collapse and mass extinctions but it will a "livable" hell.
But I rather prefer to not let myself think as a Climate Doomer, the situation may be dire as of 2022 but its not hopeless.
Justinian
Banned
This I definitely could see happening, while the Soviets did clamp down on left communist movements OTL, they would see no problem in supporting indigenously grown leftist movements that they could amplify with their increasing propaganda capabilities.
I vaguely knew about this which is what inspired my TL, but I didn't know the history, thanks for that contribution!
If only it was fully embraced...
Fundamentally I find a lot of analysts who believe that Soviet Military technology was deficient usually use poor examples or do not understand the overall doctrinal use. For example, the USAF itself made a doctrinal point that in air combat between trained pilots, ratios of 3 against 1 almost always win. The Soviets and Warsaw Pact could field a ratio of fighter/interceptors with increasingly better air to air missiles at 3 to 1. The MiG-29 and SU-27 were highly robust aircraft. We also have to consider that in this timeline the Soviet Computing industry is vastly more developed in both it's technological capabilities and its application to military technology. Although I do intend to focus on military technology in future posts, the previous post before I began making revisions is a good outline.
I will concede that the Soviets lagged behind in optics and gun stabilization in their tanks, however I would also think that the newer production models (86, 89, 91) would include more advanced fire control and stabilization systems. This would be aided by the aforementioned advances in computing technology and espionage as well as the capture of western tanks during the TL's Gulf War. One also has to recognize the high capability of Soviet anti aircraft systems like the S-300PMU, which when used in competent hands (for example like the Ukrainians or to a slightly lesser extent Russia in this recent conflict OTL) are highly capable advanced systems capable of shooting down ballistic or cruise missiles. The Soviets did have the capacity to produce PGMs, something I also believe would become cheaper and more viable due to more microchips and computers, but also due to their increased GDP. The massive expenditures the Soviets had to make to maintain their current army were eating up almost half of their state revenues OTL.
Otherwise I do agree about industry, it was their strong suit, and with China's fence sitting the Soviets would be a more attractive trading partner for the Europeans.
I have always had difficulty in predicting how Israel would react to this
That is a fair criticism, however I also think it would be fair to handwave it by arguing that a stronger Soviet Union leads to larger US expenditures in defence in the late 80s leading to slightly earlier deployment of the AMRAAM. It would also be reasonable to surmise that they may have started training and arming the Saudi Arabians earlier considering the Soviets bombed Northern Pakistan, this latter point is an oversight and I think I will add it soon.
I agree, I honestly do not see a reason as to why the Soviets would embrace capitalism if they have found a workable option of Socialism? One of the reasons this happened OTL was a reformer wing of the party felt planned economics had failed both practically and philosophically. This reformer wing couldn't exist without Gorbachev or a compelling reason to abandon the worlds most foremost Socialist state.
That is a great idea!
It is said that the reason Gorbachev try to banned it because its accurately show the consequences of perestoika
Justinian
Banned
Literally one of the worst leaders in history, I cannot even begin to comprehend how someone like that even gains power. Yet I'm a historian and know full well.
Justinian
Banned
Ha, and unrepentant gangsterism and state capitalism is better. I used to think my my TL was a grey morality, a mixed bag. But no, nothing got better and I have to go back to hell in a few weeks. Fucking Gorbachev, I honestly regret that the KGB didn't make him tea when they had the chance. He is literally responsible for the deaths of over a million people. People want to blame Putin, Putin is symptom and not the disease.
Do you live in Ukraine? Prayers to you man. I hope you are safe and your family is well (this goes for wherever you live too btw). And now that you've broached the topic, do you think Yeltsin was also a symptom or was he also part of the disease? Because Yeltsin was largely responsible for a continued and arguably even worse economic downturn, even through Russia had a very promising future after breaking free from the corruption and stagnation of the old USSR.
The weakness of SU in micro-electronics would probably direct the SU not into a PGM focus, but they would probably focus on drone warfare.
The Red Army is an artillery and tank army, therefore CAS is a last resort fire support. The US was the opposite and CAS was the preferred fire support, therefore the focus on GBUs.
So mixed with Doctrinal needs and Industrial Realities. The Soviets may simply mass produce drones to spot for artillery targets, and no Heavy Drones like Predator. This could actually be an early 2000s industry where SU could export.
The Red Army is an artillery and tank army, therefore CAS is a last resort fire support. The US was the opposite and CAS was the preferred fire support, therefore the focus on GBUs.
So mixed with Doctrinal needs and Industrial Realities. The Soviets may simply mass produce drones to spot for artillery targets, and no Heavy Drones like Predator. This could actually be an early 2000s industry where SU could export.
Well life was not meant to be fair.
I just want to burn my thoughts and try not to think of what Gorbachev really did to the world and the peoples of the Former Soviet Republics.
The man was just a Incompetence naive fool who blundered himself into the Pizza Hut guy while creating immense suffering for millions of lives and being the leading caused for why Russia became what it did.
Boris Yeltsin was too drunk to rescue the nation from the deeply routed corruption and Oligarchs.
Now we have the present day consequences of Gorbachev's shadow.
Yes it can be argued that the fall of the Berlin Wall and the collapse of the dictatorial Eastern European Communist parties were his greatest accomplishments of Gorbachev, just ignore the hyperinflation and whole corruption thing that deeply entrenched itself into Eastern Europe.
But letting the USSR die was his biggest failure and it was indirectly driven by the collapse of Communism in Eastern Europe.
But once again I will say that I just want to burn these thoughts on what could've been created and prevented from happening in OTL.
That is why we have "What If" scenarios after all
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As early as the IL-2 in the 1940's, the USSR realized the need for strike aircraft with a longer range and heavier bomb load than any artillery shell short of a railway gun could provide (and obviously, the USSR would not get back into railway guns in the 1990's). A PGM focus on Soviet aircraft and an increased economic viability of such (even Russia today has PGMs for their artillery, called the Krasnopol.
Of course, artillery spotting (and generally just reconnaissance in general) drones would probably be investigated, maybe even accepted and produced. But the need for a CAS option would be paramount. Russia also had a numerically large and diverse number of multirole aircraft that could use GPS/RADAR/IR/SACLOS guided munitions, not just in the form of GBUs, but as AGMs like the Kh-25/29, which they excelled at already. More advanced technology under a better funded Soviet Army would probably lead to a very large PGM focus for aircraft and helicopters.
And yes, ground launched missiles/guided rocket artillery do exist, but there is benefit in having one heavy multirole aircraft (Something like the SU-27/30/34/35) with AAMs and AGMs vs. a big, stationary truck with Uragan rockets on the back and another big, stationary truck holding SAMs on the back.
I have to wonder how well it would worked,like in your timeline i think there would be a need for pruge of corrupt official before putting it in action and even then its still question how much it could truly fix the problems of planed economy.I would lie if i would say there is not small part of me wish this Romanov would assumed power of Soviet Union and for it to survive as the world did seamed more united in strange way and iam saying this as some one who is not communist and who would lived in Milosevic Yugoslavia if this time line where to be true.
That role is relegated to bomber aircraft, an operational level asset. The usefulness of CAS in WW2 was limited in contested air space and entirely suicidal in Enemy Air Supremacy. This reality is emphasized by the current Ukraine conflict and Yugoslavia Air campaign. Unless you are willing to fly S/DEAD and CAP as 80% of your total sorties until achieving Air Supremacy and Major destruction of enemy IADS.
CAS as an option is needed. Remember that PGMs for CAS, would require either standoff munitions which also degrade payload weight + limited kinetic targeting or High Altitude flight for unpowered GBUs.
Multi-role Aircraft for CAS follows the same restrictions for purpose made CAS, but with worse performance. That Uragan + BuK makes your SU-X choose between CAS or SEAD sortie.
It's difficult to make micro-electronics for small munitions like shells and rockets/missiles. The larger PGM like Bombs, Standoff missiles are easier.
A Drone uses a better mix of micro and conventional electronics compared to PGMs.
Well actually the USSR does have three Railways Guns in service since WW2, they are in reserve but are still maintained in operational condition.
The Railway Guns were salvaged from Russian Navy Battleships, not one but two of them and they were captured and later used by the Finnish Army for most of the World War before being handed back to the USSR and have been in service since then.
The Naval shells come from 12 inch (305 mm) guns.
1938 Railway gun TM-3-12 is the name of these guns.
They would of course be withrawn from service after the collapse of the USSR, but that did not happen here.
I don't really see a problem in that, especially with the Soviet airforce's size and diversity in aircraft. The SU-24 and even TU-22M3 and TU-160 are all very good S/DEAD aircraft because of their ability to launch a large amount of standoff weapons, or in the case of the SU-24, a very fast and high flying aircraft with good avionics.
For my part, I should've been more specific with my goal. A CAS plane like the SU-25 and the A-10 isn't really that useful unless you have absolute air superiority and MANPADS really isn't a concern (but with modern peer-peer warfare MANPADS is always a concern). An SU-34 with a bunch of anti-radar/SEAD dedicated missiles and then some GPS guided AP cluster munitions (perhaps even on a different aircraft) is a very good hunter-killer combo against stationary air and artillery emplacements. I would imagine rocket assisted and guided artillery shells (something like a Krasnopol on steroids) would also be a priority because you don't need air superiority to fire artillery.
Speaking of guidance, I wonder if Justinian could elaborate or introduce an anti-satellite missile, either ground or air launched, to deal with GPS satellites used for both troop maneuvers and guidance. The US pursued such a project I believe, so it's not too far fetched for the Russians to do so as well.
Its not a problem of "can they do it" its a question of opportunity cost. Its alwayse more efficent for Russia to be an autarky then engage in global trade.
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