I'm not sure that he wouldn't have the strength to defeat the Eritreans in this timeline considering heavier amounts of Soviet and Cuban support. I'd think him conceding more to the Soviets is the more likely option out of desperation to defeat the rebels. Though Warsaw pact membership in unlikely as previously pointed out, maybe Comecon membership is on the table, I think historically Ethiopia was already an observer state
Romanov Ascendant: What if the Soviet Union survived?
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Justinian
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At least for now, removing the wall would be admitting that putting it up was a mistake or wrong. It would also look like bending to the west, something that neither Hans Modrow (current East German Gen Sec) and Romanov would allow. While there are generally more connections happening, more permitted visits and less legal or illegal emigration, the overall policy pushed by the security services and hardliners is preventing general contact between east and west. All television and radio signals are jammed, the only people with a connection to the emerging internet would be high level operators at universities who would probably be monitored.
The last time was the 44th anniversary of the GDR's inception, the retirement of Honecker and the resulting rise of Hans Modrow. Right now there is a growing active urban revolutionary/terrorist movement in West Germany supported by the Stasi to some extent.
The Soviets would definitely get into gaming consoles and promoting them as consumer goods, for a variety of reasons that I'll get into on the next part of the 'Car of the People'. But without getting too into it, I'm thinking that basically either the Soviets would steal a Super Nintendo and copy it. Or more positively if they're willing to come to a trade agreement with Japan.
I wouldn't think it has yet, but this is something that could easily start to occur if Japan and the Soviet Union come to some kind of trade agreement/mutual understanding about the Kuril Islands.
Justinian
Banned
I just wanted to do some more research on this before I addressed it, but basically:
Mengistu manages to maintain control of the party by the backing of the Soviets, who believe that due to Ethiopia's strategic position and resources needs stable socialist government. But seeing his overall weakened position, they increasingly exert influence on him. This is kind of like the real life version of how the US would control it's South American satellites. However I doubt that they could completely defeat the Eritreans and the Soviets wouldn't be willing to throw money at it. They may push him to accept Eritrean autonomy (that would almost be just a union between a semi independent EPLF led state and his regime). With their increasing power projection capacity, the Soviets could easily coerce both to accept I would think.
He would also be extensively benefitting from the collapse of Somalia.
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Justinian
Banned
This is something I'd like to get into, but I want to write an update about Western European Politics as a whole, in each country to this point so I'm holding onto then. I think that to some extent a corruption scandal was inevitable in Italy at this time, but the overall popularity of leftism in Italy has been positively impacted by what is occuring in the Eastern Bloc and KGB propaganda efforts, so they may balance out.
There weren't really enough Russian aristocrats left at the time to be relevant, there were definitely a few that had become millionaires or even richer, but not to the same extent as China.
That's overall true. But I'd also state that overall the Soviet Policy as of now is more of a "semi professionalization", it still conscripts and trains it's population, but a core group of professional soldiers are well paid and maintain a higher degree of professionalism and training within the force itself. This of course costs more money which is why the military industrial complex isn't able to run wild, even with the expanded oil profits. As a social policy, I feel that conscription probably did more to help than hurt, as it introduced a sense of discipline or patriotism in many young men, or gave them time to figure out what to do with their lives.
Overall increased self management and even lower degrees of market socialism could be implemented. To some extent private farming is beginning to be implemented at a very small local scale, and not as an official policy but tacitly accepted by Moscow. One thing the Soviets do have on their side is the pure industrial power their wield, their natural resources and their autocracy. They are in a good position to ride the wave of increased demand for cheap petroleum or consumer goods. China's leadership is suffering from a lack of allies and political legitimacy. Dengists can claim they are trying to implement NEP style policies, but the reality is that even if this is still encouraging the development of their economy from outsourcing and foreign investment, there is still a hardline marxist element emboldened by the Soviets to transition to Romanov style planned economics and computerization. This is encouraged by public Soviet statements that they are ready to accept China as a friend and equal, as well as enter negotiations to solve their border disputes.
That's a good point
See what alluded to and was thinking was that the Soviets would promote a cross country, massive multi industry attempt to design the best, most affordable car, with the benefit of reverse engineering japanese technology. Build a line of versatile vehicles around it (vans, trucks, etc) Then modernize the automobile production facilities, universalize them and create the trading and economic supply chain necessary for this endeavor. They would probably try to get the price down to 6500~ Rubles, but create subsidization plans for domestic purchase as well as foreign export. They would also probably build enough to try and give them away for 'good behavior'.
The ZIL-4102 would probably take the role of the high end state car, the new 'Volga' that everyone wishes they could have.
I think that is something that could be addressed by better Soviet (versus post soviet) urban planning and infrastructure projects. Probably a lot of underground parking garages.
I think that would probably be the only "capitalist" transition would be small scale private enterprise, anything of a wider scale would have to become authorize and work with or under the state agencies. That comes in with self management policies, people who have good ideas or political connections or both to start enterprises could manage them and get rewards, like the ZIL-4102 or even the cheaper one, better apartments, etc.
Overall, I'd argue Gosplan is now just over producing consumer goods, resulting in pollution and inefficient use of resources; but due to the higher quality of goods can be corrected by export. Whatever they can't produce enough of, the lucrative state owned international corporations, can transfer hard currency to buy in quantity. Or simple barter style trade deals, like Vodka for Pepsi licenses or etc.
I've got something cooking up for him too, I think he would be overall discouraged from a nuclear program but he might be ready for another go at Chad.
Does Rawling’s Ghana still takes the IMF loans? Or go back to dependence on the USSR?
So, in TTL, Republikflucht nach Fersehen ( Republic Flight by Television- basically watching west german TV) is eliminated by wide-scale introduction of cable tv in East Germany ? Well, without a cultural connector as like TV, the differences between East and West would really become massive
So basically a higher quality UAZ-452, UAZ-469, KamAZ *, with the former leveraging the Hilux and Jimny parts. But what the Union needs to learn is not "just" the Japanese focus on quality, but even more importantly their production techniques.
So perhaps a joint venture with Toyota?
Will the Soviets and the Japanese sign a treaty about the Kurils thanks to their improving relations or will the situation remain like as OTL?
Justinian
Banned
Yes, but I think he would also probably transition to becoming a French 'neocolonial protectorate' in the sense that he wouldn't want to go to the Soviets
Yes this is one of the aspects I was referring to heavily, while some western culture in the form of approved movies and television, or co produced movies were allowed to be broadcast on Eastern television or Cinema, advances in jamming technology as well as the political pressure from the Soviets to jam everything completely ensured that. There would definitely be an increasingly cultural divide between the halves of Europe, especially when western culture doesn't get the same amount of exposure or popularity that it did OTL.
That's something I could see happening, it's going to come down to Japanese Soviet relations, if a settlement on the Kuril Islands can be reached and if some kind of licensing scheme could be brought in for the Soviet flagrant copying of Japanese consumer products which would be aggravating it's largest companies.
It's going to become an issue, I might put it to the vote. Soviet and Japanese reconciliation, diplomatic and economic.
Justinian just one more thing if I may ask: what about Albania? Will they make a rapprochement with the Soviets? Or will they remain allied to China?
There was a Cuban presence in Ethiopia until the 1989 and the fall of the Warsaw pact
And also the Angolan and Mozambique civil wars are still ongoing alongside the South Africa War.
Justinian
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Without the SADF to support UNITA I imagine that they're losing pretty hard, I'm not really sure on Mozambique though
Chapter Five: War and Peace 1994
Justinian
Banned
Infantry of the 3rd Regiment defending the 'ambush highway', near Middelburg, January 30th 1994
Forces of the Free South African Army, early 1994
Innovative Weapons
Early Winter to Mid Spring, 1994
By early 1994, The SADF Junta was beginning to face serious strategic and logistical issues. Despite the massive losses that they inflicted, how they would wipe away entire Free South African Army formations left and right seemly with ease, but SADF units were suffering attrition not only from the guerrilla warfare by the Mkhonto we Sizwe, the ANC's armed wing, but fatigue, equipment loss and breakdown. International embargos made acquiring spare parts and new weapons difficult, and increasingly they began to rely more and more on the smuggled weapons of China, Iraq and North Korea paid for in exchange for diamonds. In addition the FSAA ranks were being swelled by African volunteers eager to achieve the final liberation of the entire continent. To make matters worse the FSAA was being flooded with western weapons, western money, and most concerning for the SADF, western mercenaries and volunteers.The SADF Junta was becoming increasingly paranoid, as the land bridges to their hold out army bases, settlements, its leftover forces in Namibia and main naval bases had become increasingly under threat or attack. The orange line had been completed with slave/ prisoner labour, and their front line continued to extend out from it, becoming a second fortified line sarcastically referred to as the 'du Plessis' line, the figurehead president of SADF controlled South Africa.
When the ANC managed to stage another armed uprising behind the lines in Johannesburg, a younger, ambitious officer in the Junta, with ties to the AWC, managed to arrange the use of what he termed "innovative weapons". The first recorded use of chemical weapons in the South African Civil War was on February 3rd, 1994 against rioters in the Edendale uprising. Edendale was a predominantly black suburb of Pietermaritzburg, the Capital of the Natal Province that while controlled by the SADF, the local African population were supportive of the Left wing ANC and FSAA. The riot had started on the 1st and increased in scale and violence by the third, in response the SADF and AWB shelled it with both chlorine and mustard gas. Special military police detachments, AWB battalions and "clean up" units began scrubbing down the evidence and burying the bodies in mass graves. At first, the rest of the Junta and President Du Plessis were morally revolted and deeply concerned with international perception.
The officer, Brigadier General Lourens Jonathaan, had his immediate arrest and court martial demanded by some moderates, but others in the Junta, more powerful voices were more interested in the practical side of his actions. The chemical weapons did in fact prove fairly effective, especially in a situation where locally the enemy had a massive quantity advantage but no means of protection. The rest of the Junta was coerced and then managed to assuage Du Plessis and Jonathaan was quickly elevated to the role of liaison and overseeing officer with the AWB and foreign volunteer units, due to his 'practical mindset'. It was also believed if things went wrong, they could always just assign him the blame. The authoritarian and police state level of control exercised in SADF controlled South Africa allowed them to mostly cover up the use of chemical weapons for a time, aside from ANC networks which had smuggled out only verbal and written accounts. The world would generally go unaware of what had occurred there for a period.
Thanks to ChadMachine999 who wrote the update
Edit: also check out majorsam on youtube, he was my source for those hard to find SADF pictures.
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Well.....the situation in South Africa is "interesting": I think that it's not so impossible to see a situation akin to the OTL Yugoslav Wars with the UN sending in the peacekeepers (maybe a joint USA-USSR thing to symbolise the "end" of the Cold War; for the moment) to put an end to the fighting. We could also see an equivalent to the OTL Federal Republic of Yugoslavia rump state under the "Milosevich" of the moment until he is overthrown and the last remnant of Apartheid South Africa finally democratise.
UNITA and REANMO might be losing but it depends. Maybe the US would expand the war.
You are right. I also think that the South African civil war can become a bonding factor between Romanov and Perot (with both seeking detente) and lead to a momentary cooling of tensions around the world.
How? The USA will be focused on preventing Congo to fall to the communist because if it falls to the reds the Americans will lose most of their influence in that portion of Africa.
Untill South Africa announces that they are a nuclear state.
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