Romanov Ascendant: What if the Soviet Union survived?

[Justinian]

The world in which we live today has been nearly completely and totally shaped by two transient events that occurred both in the 20th century, the first obviously being the period of the world wars and the second being the collapse of the Soviet Union. The world war's importance to the direction of modern history is obvious to anyone, not only would they dictate the fates of nations and of millions of people, but the ideological and philosophical direction said nations and individuals would take, it would be nearly impossible to ruminate over the thousands of possible different directions we could have been pulled in or on. The collapse did not result in the same scale of death or destruction (Although certainly millions did die or have their life quality considerably altered, for better or for worse by it) but it ultimately cleared the way for a world in which capitalism and to a lesser extent (a far lesser extent than what western intellectuals in the 1990s thought) liberal democracy could be the only legitimate ideologies.

It would be the end of history, at least as we know it. However, it is very clear this notion was born of some kind of hubristic naivety created from a feeling of victory from watching the wall get knocked down and rockstars parade around in Moscow. This of course raised a question in me, what if the Soviets didn't collapse? That global capitalism and liberalism did not receive it's catharsis in 1989 and 1991? How would history progress in the midst of an unending cold war. This then of course led me to consider what exactly went wrong in the Soviet Union, that had led to its collapse in the first place. It is very obvious, especially when we have the real life comparison of the PRC, that Gorbachev's naive idealism to create an open political system combined with open market reforms both fed off each other resulting in the modern breadline photos taken from (1988-1991) that are often touted as examples of life in the Soviet Union during the 80s, which it was not in fact like, so I would rather argue that Gorbachev's personality, approach to reform and overall incompetence at a time of political, ideological and economic crisis created the conditions necessary for the collapse.

However clearly there were other systemic issues at play, sapping away the Soviet Union's economic capabilities, these being runaway military spending, some of the inherent inefficiencies of planned economics and corruption. Obviously I cannot account for the actions of someone who did not actually take power, but Grigory Romanov was Gorbachev's rival to take power, he was a hardliner and very much styled himself after Andropov. For the purposes of this timeline I essentially continue a Soviet Union ran under Andropov esque policy, but taken to it's logical ends. Anti corruption purges, pseudo-technocratic imposition of an intranet necessary to create a cross referencing checking system for the economy; of course the subsequent technological development which would result from concentration in that sector. Our departure from the original timeline posits a slightly healthier Andropov manages to hand off control of the Soviet Union to a competent hardliner, skipping Chernenko entirely, either due to his health taking a turn for the worse earlier, or even his consent or both.

Romanov's Acescent
Moscow, 1985
It had become clear by the mid 1980's that the Politburo's leadership was woefully incapable of keeping up with the United State's and the West's dynamic economy and aggressive foreign policy. The Star Wars project was believed by some in the Aerospace and Air Forces that the delicate equilibrium of MAD was being threatened. Others felt that the Soviet Union was stagnating, this was overwelmingly clear to both the economists and the politburo. General Secretary Andropov was highly effective during his tenure. He demonstrated that strong leadership from the center could in fact deal with corruption at least to some extent, and counter balance the west. But his tenure was a short one, his kidney failed and worsened several of his other health conditions, and he died at the age of 71. Before this, it had become clear that a successor would be needed soon. Andropov intended to retire from his post (the first Soviet leader to do this) and hand off power to his chosen successor.

Yet there was contention between the hardliners and reformers, and this had set off a leadership struggle within the Politburo, with Gorbachev backed by senior figures like Andrei Gromyko and other reformists. Grigory Romanov was the 2nd youngest member of the Politburo, he was very close to Andropov and who became something of a mentor and a friend, they would often play chess while Andropov underwent dialysis. With Andropov's unwavering support Romanov courted Viktor Grishin and the conservatives. At the March 1985 meeting of the Central Committee, Grishin nominated Romanov. However Gromyko nominated Gorbachev, creating an extremely tense situation unseen in the history of the CPSU, which had almost always nominated candidates unanimously. Chernenko voted for Romanov, despite his own aspirations, he understood that his own health was at risk and decided to pass the torch. Gromyko withdrew his bid and Romanov was elected unanimously. Gromyko subsequently "retired" and Gorbachev was later removed and given a pension and a regional position in the Kuril Islands.

Romanov by acclimation by first the Politburo, Central Committee and finally the Supreme Soviet, as 6th General Secretary of the Communist Party. It wasn't long until Romanov had embarked an ambitious campaign of reform, something that he had ambitiously formulated in his head for years prior and had refined in bedside discussions with Andropov. Andropov saw in Romanov a vehicle to continue his attempts to save the revolution and country from failure and collapse. His (relative) youth gave him the dynamism and energy to see it through, despite the difficulty of dealing with the immense byzantine soviet bureaucracy. Romanov, acting with the legitimacy of his mandate, made a move that would later be recounted by historians as having changed the direction of Soviet history. Advised to do this by Andropov, as Romanov did not have the benefit of having risen in the KGB. His first serious decisive action was reforming the party oversight of the KGB, making it almost only accountable only to the General Secretary. In plainer terms, this essentially gave him the power to not only control the upper echelons of the KGB himself, but to investigate those who had previously held "immunity". This move was at first seen as bizarre, radical break with tradition. Brezhnev would have never considered such a borderline Stalinist move. The reformists in the party reacted with dissension and spread dissent in the party. Previously, the KGB was accountable to the party leadership in the spirit of 'collective leadership', a move made by Khrushchev and held by Brezhnev, this however had the effect of allowing the lower party ranks to become more corrupt, as they could use their political connections or influence to enrich themselves. Andropov, a KGB man, had imparted in Romanov his hatred of corruption and his fervent belief in the importance of the KGB in safeguarding Lenin's revolution and more importantly the state.

The rank and file of the Committee of State Security (KGB) had no problem transferring their loyalty for Andropov to Romanov, especially with their increased authority, pay and stature in society. He used them as his party vanguard to eliminate those enemies wherever they stood, cleaning house on the basis of what was called the "revolutionary anti corruption campaign". Many western leaders denounced the move, highlighted by several defectors. The Soviets simply responded "Do you not punish criminals in your own country, comrade ambassador? These men we are prosecuting steal without regard." The 'Anti Corruption Campaign' became a massive propaganda stunt that helped Romanov mobilize the younger student elements of the party and the more radical elements. Under the cover and fervor of the public trials, he cleared out many his own opponents in the party or general society, but the the biggest victims were in fact corrupt officials. With the KGB untethered, acting with what they felt was righteous indignation, they manage to seriously damage, destroy or roll back the largest and most overt corruption and black market efforts. With the students and Komosols motivated, he also continued the (admittedly humorous) Andropov policy of 'labour discipline', eager communist students were recruited (and promised easier party membership) to force workers to actually go back to their jobs, rather than being absent from work and getting drunk, which had become common during the Brezhnev years.

In the following years:

• Romanov's ideological premise was that what was determined in the confines of Marxist Leninism as 'developed socialism' had not yet been established in the Soviet Union or in its allied states. It had yet to achieve the same level of economic and technological output as it's western rivals, and without achieving this desired state of evolution, they would be constantly sprinting to catch up to the last obstacle the west had already crossed. He stated in full terms that the country had languished under the lethargy of Breznevisim. Dismissing Brezhnev's legacy was a bold political move that already contributed to antipathy from some, but was overwelmingly regarded as correct, both by the higher elements of the KGB, the Party and even the general population, who had come to perceive Brezhnev as an idiot and overwhelming incompetent. This openness and honesty, despite it's clear cynical reality of blaming all of the problems on the last leader did in fact improve his image. Using his hold on the KGB, he could also remove those he saw as Breznevists at will. This allowed Romanov to rebuild the conservative and hardline faction at his own discretion, removing old magnates and putting his own men in. In public he made the caveat to save some supporters of Brezhnev political face, that he did do his best for the fraternal brotherhood of peoples in the Soviet Union, but had failed in his duties in allowing stagnation to take hold.
  
  
• He said that his ambitious program would correct the problems in the state, and made public speeches to this effect. This being in effect the first time a public figure in the Soviet Union had acknowledged the problems plaguing the country. He kept it short and to the point, and of course downplayed the scale of it, blaming it on a handful of criminals. But this move shook up the party, and created a general interest in the population, which had generally had an antipathy towards politicians. He seemed a little more 'honest' than most. This had led to dissent in some of the conservative factions, but he assuaged them privately, arguing that such self reflection was a Marxist Leninist principal and that they needed to gain credibility to defeat the reformers. The vast majority ultimately got behind the leader who appeared to be dealing with the problems in the country, acting as the strongman that many conservatives felt that the Soviet Union needed again. The overall program was announced and called Uprochneniye (Consolidation). It proscribed economic reforms including stricter administration, consolidation of state industries and some elements of self management and was added to the twelfth 5 year plan. After weeks of consultation with the Soviet Union's best minds in computers, economics, political science and engineering, they came to a conclusion that the Soviet Union needed an electronic system to ease and make more efficient it's economic planning system. The system would later be called EGSVT and was inspired by the to the Chilean Cybersyn project. Romanov despite not comprehending or knowing much about computers, was so impressed by this, that he was swayed to support the emerging Soviet computer and electronics industry, something he had taken a personal interest in, he also elevated several younger technology experts in the party on a track to Politburo membership. This system once implemented could help deal with some of the inherent problems of a planned economy. Uprochneniye would be forced onto the various Warsaw pact member states with varying degrees of success.
  
  
  
• By 1988, the foundational infrastructure for EGSVT had been finished, and two new manufacturing complexes for electronics and computers were finished, one near Leningrad and the other near Minsk. Three more were slated to be finished by '89, one near Moscow, another near Vilnius and the other at Vladivostok. The increasing use of computers in administration and economic management as well the increased authoritarian methods had resulted in economic growth. The system's grand opening in late 1988 and early 1989 was plagued by glitches and technical problems, but overall proved to massively improve efficiency. Previously, it was normal for entire trains of produce to be left to rot before it would even begin to be distributed to stores, but the improvements had led to better distribution. Now it was possible to actually procure meat or coffee from a store. For example Instead of waiting for 7-10 years to receive a lada you had already paid for with low production qualities, the wait shrank to 2 to 4 years for a somewhat better lada or skoda. Televisions were no longer had a tendency to catch on fire or bust from simple normal use (from higher production standards). Quality control was increasingly forced and factory heads held accountable. Self management in some industries improved their productive capacity, and led to increasing standards in agriculture. People no longer used prada as toilet paper because they could actually get (toilet paper) it from a government store. Because consumer good quality was improving, the Soviets could now export some of it's goods, instead of relying exclusively on oil and natural resource sales. Reductions to the military budget, and mainly to bloat that Romanov had seen while being head of the military industrial complex (in 1983, an actual fact) also helped. In summary, the quality of life was improving in the mid to late 1980s in a similar way, that life seemed to be improving in the 70s to the immediate post war generation of the Soviet Union.
  
  
• Romanov was unwilling to back down in Afghanistan, the war continued at an increased pace, the Americans increased their support but the Soviets also increased their troops numbers and began using even more unsavory tactics and techniques, including mass deportations to more easily controlled camps and cities and rumored use of chemical and biological weapons. Forcible urbanization in the most problematic regions heavily damaged the support base for the mujahedeen, forcing them to take refuge in their mountain fortresses on the borders of Pakistan. When a MiG-27 on a bombing run was shot down by a Pakistani F-16 in 1986, Andropov ordered retaliation. The Soviets lost a MiG-25 after downing 3 F-16s and then began a short but decisive air campaign on the North of Pakistan, targeting their training camps in 1987. Several more Pakistani fighters were shot down, and the US reacted very sternly, stating that a Soviet invasion of Pakistan was a redline, and the US would defend Pakistani territorial integrity. It was considered one of the closest cold war flashpoints since Able Archer. Despite Reagan's grand standing, the Soviets had no intention of expanding the war to another country and instead simply issued a warning that overt support for terrorists targeting their countrymen would be met likewise. By 89 the Pakistanis continued their support, but improvements in Soviet combat techniques and technology reduced the mujahedeens effectiveness to an even lesser degree. Forced into staging night raids on the Afghanis themselves or planting mines. Whenever the Soviets would find a cave system or mountain fortress, they would obliterate it through massive artillery bombardment, or in some selective cases, chemical weapons. By the 1990s, The Soviets withdrew the majority of their forces from Afghanistan after overwelmingly gutting the opposition through the aforementioned methods and agreed to some reforms with the moderate opposition, while maintaining a supply line to the Afghan communists and advisors to help fight the continuing but less escalated insurgency.
  
  
• General Secretary Romanov became increasingly paranoid as well as openly ruthless. He also appeared to becoming more narcissistic. Soviet Propaganda began depicting him by the end of 1986 as one of the great socialists and personal defender of the revolution in propaganda. He had also massively curtailed the autonomy of many of the constituent republics of the USSR. Which provoked unrest, but the increased power of the KGB had managed to control it, at least at that point. Despite maintaining the Khrushchev line on Stalin, Romanov gradually reintroduced the cult of personality.
  
  
• The benefits of the economic development and increased use of electronics had led to the Soviets managing to actually produce surpluses in goods and food that were transferred to the other member states of the Council for Mutual Economic Assistance (CMEA). This actively reduced unrest in the general population in the Warsaw Pact states, yet there were still strong liberal movements operating in East Germany, Poland and to a lesser extent Czechoslovakia. Bulgaria had a stronger and more entrenched population of loyalists, but Romania was increasingly destabilized by the erratic leadership style of Ceausescu. The Soviets gradually assisted in paying the debts incurred by each state with its profits, especially with Poland in near crisis. The Soviets and East Germans, energized by the recent success increasingly pushed for increased economic integration, gladly accepted by all except Romania. However increasing instability would later force Ceausescu to accept it, but it worked for the best in conjunction with his completion of his austerity policy.

Now it's 1989, the cold war and the Eastern Bloc appears to be stable. The space race is still on, Romanov promising a MIR-2 and lunar landing. Technologically, the two sides remained at par, each with slight advantages in certain sectors. The Soviets are still trying to catch up with stealth, but they had increasingly closed the gap in cruise missiles and other precision weapons or avionics. I would like to develop this as a collaborative timeline, so please let me know what you think and how this world would develop.

Edit: I am now posting a final rewrite, that is in the latest pages.

 

[Justinian]

Fukayama Disappointed
Like Andropov, General Secretary Romanov was eyed with suspicion from day one. As the years progressed and Europe/USA became aware of his domestic programs, he increasingly became an object of fixation. He's restitution of the cult of personality, combined with his direct personal control of the KGB immediately brought up comparisons to Stalin. Alarms went off on his complete disregard for human rights and the purges of bureaucracy of who he called corrupt, of which many were, however others were reformers, dissidents or simply his political enemies. These purges were used to further the Stalin comparisons in the Western media. He was painted as an ambitious despot, the kind of man who only justified the rhetoric of cold war hawks. His mystery resulted in many rumors and conspiracy theories, but overall he was just seen as a yet another Soviet dictator. It wasn't alleged that he was killing most of these people, although some certainly were, that vast majority were just being internally deported, or in the case of intellectuals, forced into closed cities but given additional luxuries.

His realist and pragmatic approach to foreign policies however created some hope. Despite what hawks in America thought, his actions in bombing Pakistan did not create enough public outrage to support further escalations. His willingness to negotiate and his public statements that he was open to détente and arms control helped. He still managed to sign the INF treaty, a year later than OTL however. All of this contributed to him being made Time magazines man of the year in 1988, the year when he demonstrated the EGSVT system to western journalists. To this effect, a variety of different publications (Time, NYT, BBC, etc) were invited, allowed to film with handlers, as his translator took questions. The journalists did try to touch on his human rights policy, but he brushed this off, Romanov himself saying "The idea that there is any violation of human rights in the Soviet Union, is simply fake propaganda." did quickly become a point of satire in western culture. His public image became one of contradiction, but ultimately in the mind of America he took the role of the respectable, affable yet still evil villain.(Kind of comparable to how many see Putin today) This was reinforced by movies, TV shows, that used his likeness or persona. Many commentators and pundits often argued the EGSVT system was simply the beginnings of an an Orwellian surveillance state, only reinforcing the need to oppose the totalitarianism of Romanov.

His relaxation of the Brezhnev doctrine, allowing for more flexibility in the Warsaw pact states, was taken well by European leftists. A public appearance in Czechoslovakia, and a speech there where Romanov disavowed in the most polite and least credible way, the actions of 1968, but was taken as a symbolic apology. But his unrestrained oppression of any democratic or religious opposition absolutely incensed the centrists, liberals and right wing parties in Europe and America. In the United States, US President Bush Senior, maintained the line of his predecessor, that communism had to be opposed and human rights defended. More funds were dedicated towards the Strategic Defence Initiative, as well as new projects including a stealth attack helicopter. The SDI would become an issue of contention, and President Bush stated that America's innovation and spirit would ensure that it would win the cold war. However the US was quickly developing slight financial strain from the increased defence expenditures and developing downturn in markets by 1990.

The Arab World
In the middle east, most events continued as they did OTL. However, during the later stages of the Iran-Iraq War, Romanov managed to bring Saddam closer to the East than to the west, offering on spec (in addition to the ones sold OTL) advanced weapons including several Mi-28s, BM-27 Uragans and some Tor SAM systems. Saddam was already running out of credit and funds, and Andropov's only condition was to normalize relations with Syria, and closer relations with the Soviet Union. The BM-27s would prove to be extremely helpful during the last years of the war, and a Tor was credited for shooting down a few Cobras and an F-4E, but the Iraqi personnel didn't finish their training in time to participate with the Mi-28. Saddam would secretly approach the Soviet ambassador, rather than the American for permission to invade Kuwait. The closer relationship Iraq was developing with the Soviets wasn't immediately obvious, as they had previously exported weapons to Kuwait as well. The Soviets vetoed the UNSC resolution filed, as Iraq annexed Kuwait. The CIA quickly determined what was occurring, and the world press had a field day. The invasion was laid at Romanov's feet, yet the Soviet government denied any involvement. Citing the Carter doctrine, the US began landing forces in Saudi Arabia almost immediately, but western leaders were left confused as to how to deal with the Iraqi invasion.

At the Pentagon, a different strategy was envisioned. Many senior staff, including generals, colonels and etc who had played an integral role in reforming the US military post Vietnam, the vaunted authors of air-land battle doctrine, believed that the US needed a testing ground. They argued that not only would the military gain valuable experience and battle testing for it's weapon systems, but a political blow could be delivered by demonstrating the Soviet supported Iraqi military was a paper tiger. This plan found support with the CIA, who believed it would be possible to stir anti Saddam opposition within the Kurdish and Shia population. The US couldn't invade, the UN stalemate, post Vietnam malaise and the risk of nuclear Armageddon ensured that. Instead, they should arm, train and prepare the Saudi Arabians and their allies to force Iraq out of Kuwait, and perhaps Saddam out of Iraq all together.

 

[Justinian]

This is CNN, Live from Baghdad
Interventionism once had an unpopular taste in the mouths of Americans after Vietnam, but the patriotism fostered by Reagan in the 80's, the terrorism and successful strikes on Libya had created a politically workable atmosphere. Now the State Department and CIA had something to work with, Saddam was easily displayed as a despotic tyrant (Not that he wasn't) and his invasion of Kuwait easily drew comparisons to Czechoslovakia. Sec of State Jason Baker stated "What we have here is the classic Soviet modus operandi, they secretly support aggression across the globe, and when these illegal actions are brought to the attention of the United Nations Security Council, all discussion of them is nullified by their unrepentant and unjustified veto. What Saddam Hussein has done, has violated the UN charter plainly, and without any room for disagreement. The United States of America will not stand by as Iraq commits atrocities and crimes against peace and threatens our friends and allies." The US managed to get a resolution passed in the general assembly (still typically pro Soviet) condemning Iraq's invasion and occupation as illegal, giving them further legitimacy to act. World opinion was starting to turn against Saddam. The CIA and other branches of the American government leaked out stories and hosted Kuwaiti refugees to speak in congress. Wild stories of babies being thrown from incubators, women being bayoneted for their jewelry and etc, some embellishments, some true. There was no one in congress who would support further Soviet domination in the Persian Gulf, and therefore the Authorization for Use of Military Force to Defend Saudi Arabia and Kuwait resolution was passed, giving the US government free reign, or in the words of the act "defend it's allies, and defend and liberate Kuwait.". The US found allies in Margret Thatcher's United Kingdom, Egypt, the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and Canada, but couldn't mobilize France. The intervention became a major political controversy in Canada, but Brian Mulroney had recently won an election and hoped to gain political capital by deploying the large force Canada had sitting around in Germany to Saudi Arabia. Thatcher was betting on a successful intervention to shore her support in the conservative party.

By October, the Saudi Arabian and Egyptian militaries took the front line, while the western powers took a supporting and training role. The US authorized a sale and donation of hardware previously sold/donated only to Israel. AH-64 Apaches, Super Cobras and nearly , 75 F-16 Variants (To Egypt), 85 F-15Cs, and 30 F-15Es were brought in, the Saudi Arabian and Egyptian M-60 tanks were upgraded with applique armour, ERA, more advanced munitions. M270s were also "loaned" to Saudi Arabia and Egypt. The Americans financed a sale of additional Mirage-2000s to Egypt. A contingent of 30 M1A1s were "loaned" to Saudi Arabia , and 130 M1IPs were sold to outfit the cream of the Saudi and Egyptian Armour divisions. The western members Coalition meticulously planned, trained and prepared their Arab counter parts, although it would take at least six months to be ready, and most of the new pilots wouldn't be considered qualified either, but their training was accelerated and given by the best of the USAF and RAF. The Western forces would not directly invade Iraq, but rather 'defend Saudi Arabia', the Arab forces were expected to liberate Kuwait from Iraq themselves. The Americans deployed Patriot batteries, which they stated would only be used to defend the airspace of Saudi Arabia. The Offensive was slated for October 26th 1991.

These developments weren't unnoticed by the Soviets either. They ramped up the deployment of their own advisors, training officers and equipment deliveries. General Secretary Romanov believed this would be an excellent opportunity to test Soviet military technology, and perhaps deliver a humiliating blow to the west. If the worst case scenario occurred, he could always maintain plausible deniability, impossible with direct relationships like they had with Syria. Romanov had the KGB's dossier on Saddam and understood that he was at best aggressive and at worst an unstable element. This is why a contingency plan was put in place, and special care to fostering relationships between the KGB's GRU, Soviet Army and Iraqi military command. The Soviets exported BMP-2s, additional Tors, Osas, a few batteries of Buk SAMs. They made a large delivery of T-55AMVs, T-72Ms and some T-72Bs. They also furnished the Iraqis with modern munitions, better infantry ATGMs like the Konkurs. And a cadre of Iraqi Republican Guard were brought to Moscow to be trained on electronic warfare and communication systems. They also exported 50 additional MiG-29s, 45 MiG-25PDs and 55 MiG-23Ps. The Iraqis were now trained on their Mi-28s, given to their best Hind pilots from the Iran-Iraq war. They (like the Arab coalition) had the benefit of up to date satellite intelligence and KGB infiltration. Soviet personnel monitored on a near 24/7 basis from listening post, ships and stations in Iraq for when the offensive would begin. They had a difficulty in extracting the exact date, but knew it was slated for late October.

 

[Justinian]

Operation Kuwaiti Freedom
On the 26th of 1991, roughly at 2AM, a vast military operation began. The trepidation in the trenches and behind the sand berms was indescribable. The Coalition had managed to leak disinformation to the KGB and Iraqis, that the operation would be delayed to October 29th. Once the US had assessed the dismal state of the Saudi Arabian military forces, it was agreed by the President and Chiefs of Staff that the US would take an overtly covert approach. They would fly Saudi Planes, while delivering select airstrikes, especially with precision and BVR weapons, to disrupt the well organized and disciplined Iraqis. The F-15Es, along with Tornados delivered airstrikes using the newest American bunker busters, including GBU-24 Paveway IIIs and BLU-109s.

The forward airbases in southern Iraq, along with radar stations and SAM sites were extensively targeted. The Soviets immediately sounded the alarm and ordered the Iraqis into action. A squadron of American F-117s ran repeated sorties attempting to target the most advanced Iraqi SAM systems and planes. They managed to avoid detection among the frenzy of activity. In many of the southern airfields, it was simply too late as Iraqi pilots attempted to scramble, being easily shot down or bombed mid runway. Within the first three hours, twenty radar sites, thirteen SAM sites (two entire batteries of Buks) and three air bases were totally leveled. The Iraqis lost eleven MiG-21 variants, twenty MiG-23 variants, along with tweleve Mirages and five MiG-29s.

Three Saudi F-15s were shot down, two by Buks and one by an MiG-25 operating from a northern airbase. By 4:30AM The Iraqis began running combat air patrols from their central and northern airbases with their MiG-29s, Mirages, MiG-21(Bis)s, and MiG-25s and faced the Saudi F-15Cs, F-5s and Tornados along with Jordanian Mirage F-1s. Its been suggested that a few Soviet Pilots may have participated, fighting in the skies above Iraqi territory. The latter had the benefit of American AWACS support, while the former had to rely on ground based radar, albeit filtered by Soviet personnel. In what became one of the largest dogfights since WW2, hundreds of planes faced other in what started as a skirmish and had degenerated into a squall. MiG-21s (unknowingly) served as bait while MiG-29s, flown by Iraq's best aces lied in wait. These tactics worked somewhat, but F-15Cs using AMRAAMs brought many of Iraqis finest aircraft to the ground with straight BVR kills. As the sun began to rise, it became clear that the coalition had the edge and that the Iraqis needed to regroup. MiG-25s provided a rear guard for a retreat, for rest and refit. In the air battle, the Saudis lost eighteen F-15Cs, and twelve Tornados to air to air combat and air defence systems. The Egyptians lost fourteen F-16s. The Iraqis lost thirty four MiG-21 variants, thirteen MiG-25s, six Mirages and eight MiG-29s. Iraqi Air Force Pilot Capt. Jameel Sayhood became an ace after downing five coalition aircraft. Many Saudis and Egyptians became aces, but Saudi Pilot Maj. Abdullah Hajkallah shined in particular, shooting down three MiG-25s and two MiG-29s in his F-15C.

As the battles raged in the sky, the coalition forces hit Iraqi army forces with an array of cluster, precision and HE explosives. M270s were fired soo many times, they were just exchanged with ones from the american fleet. Artillery was planned, registered and coordinated by the western support forces, using their advanced counter battery and computer technology. Both forces engaged in electronic warfare against each other, disrupting communications. The armoured thrust into central Kuwait was highly successful, AH-64 gunships knocked out several T-72s and ZSU-23s, but they mainly encountered T-55s and T-62s plus some Centurions. They took no losses as they preceded into Kuwaiti territory. The mechanized prongs on the right of the main central push dealt with dug in Iraqi forces with air strikes and sapper tactics, but took infantry casualties while storming the fieldworks. The attack on the eastern flank also preceded successfully, managing to isolate two Iraqi divisions while managing to precede to Ali Sabah. The resistance on the east was much fiercer, costing several tanks and casualties, but the coalition's advantages in night fighting were guaranteed by the donated NVG equipment.

The Soviets (and Iraqis) had planned for every contingency, they kept their strongest forces fortified on the outskirts of Kuwaiti city, or in reserve in the northern desert region of Kuwait, under much strong SAM protection. Despite the SEAD raids, these forces still had protection and were also concealed to the best of their ability. The coalition still realized what their intentions were, but decided to face them head on believing they had the advantage in a meeting engagement.

​

 

[Justinian]

The Battle of Al Jahra: Part I
By 9AM, it appeared the positions had stabilized. Saudi Soldiers were given an opportunity to rest and eat, the sorrounded as well as front line Iraqi divisions dug in. The air war continued, edging in favor of the coalition. When it became clear the extent of American involvement in the airstrikes, and especially when an IrAF MiG-25 was struck down by a patriot missile fired by American forces, this pressed the Iraqis in an awkward position, clearly this was an act of war, but they had their hands full fighting the coalition as it is. When Saddam was informed of his, it took the direct threat of the Soviet ambassador to completely withdraw any support if they would engage any western forces. Characteristically he was furious, but he reluctantly accepted. He turned his aggression towards a counter offensive, goaded on by the ambassador. If Iraq couldn't use it's Scud missiles against Saudi Arabia, he would at least lob them at the Saudis and Egyptians conventional forces. The Iraqis began to concede control of the skies in southern Kuwait, staging ambushes with MiG-25s and patrols with MiG-29s, preventing full air supremacy from being established. The Egyptian 2nd Armoured Division (Equipped with upgraded M60A3s) and the 4th Saudi Armoured Brigade (Equipped with M1IPs and M60s) were given the go ahead to advance, escorted by AH-64 sorties. The overall strategic vision of the coalition was to cut a swath through the desert, encircle the city, create a defensive line against Iraq and force the encircled forces to surrender. This was clear to the Soviets because of their interceptions of communications as well as satellite images.

The Tawakalna and Nebuchadnezzar Republican Guard Divisions, accompanied by the 1st Mechanized Iraqi Army division spear headed the counter attack. Hundreds of tanks would face off. Coalition recce units, combined with UAV surveillance confirmed the large movement of forces. They had a quantitative superiority at the minimal. A UAE armoured regiment and the 8th and 10th Saudi Armoured Brigades, previously held in reserve were ordered to maneuver. The spearhead was ordered to take defensive and preferably hull down positions. Minutes later, by 11:22AM, the roar of 105 and 120mm guns filled the air.

Corporal Khaliq Shehadeh, 4th Saudi Armoured Brigade, Crewman, M1IP
We didn't have a lot of time to get familiar with these new tanks, the fact most of the labels were in English and these new 'computers', but our American instructors drilled us hard and assured us these tanks would win us the war. We were tired from driving all day, we kept all of hatches open, the heat was starting to get to us. As we drove, we began to lull into a false sense of security, but once we heard the word contact on the radio, I felt more awake than ever in my life. We saw vehicles coming at us at about 5 and a half kilometers out. The weather was perfect. I got the first one dead on, I think it may have been a BMP or something. I saw two almost flying, trying to close the distance. We let it go and took out one, the other reversed and the driver threw a smoke grenade. My hands were shaking, I could even register what happened in my mind, but it seemed as if not my soul. I had just killed, I was a killer.

I had no time for any spiritual or philosophical inquiries. The unmistakable sound of tank round, passing our turret by a few meters or more. Sgt. Shalif kicked me in the shoulder, told me to aim 24 degrees. At least 5 T-55s were coming at us. I let off a round and saw it hit, the tank didn't explode but it was immobilized. Two more rounds flew by us, the Commander ordered smoke and we reversed. I peered up from the turret, where once some of my friends had stood were replaced by burning hulks. Outside of the tank I could hear helicopters and jets, from both directions. As we reversed it was clear we had taken losses, but we inflicted just as many, if not more.

The Iraqi advance guard was composed of BMP-1s, BMP-1Ps, T-55s and T-62s, tanks they felt had a reasonable chance at pinning down the Saudis, allowing the Republican Guards more advanced models exploit the gaps and maneuver to better positions from which to gain leverage. Egyptian BMP-1s exchanged ATGMs at distance, but as the ranks closed the distance some M-60s were lost, but the Iraqi advance guard was decimated by the coalition.

Captain Kaseem Shakoor, 6th Nebuchadnezzar Division, Commander, T-55MV Squadron
We didn't expect them to eat away at the frontal forces so quick, even the Russians thought that. We were meant to be held as a tactical reserve, to exploit any gaps. Unfortunately for us, when the first tactic failed, they decided the T-72s would take that role. No matter, at the time we thought that if we could beat the Iranians, we could beat the pompous ass of the Saudis. We pressed on, it was a fucking hot day. I had our loader, a veteran of the war with Iran, scouting with my binoculars as we advanced. We drove passed many wrecks, but I was encouraged to see that the black plumes funneled up at the enemies side as well. They would sporadically pop smoke, alternating between tanks to allow for one to give fire, and for the other to reverse. It was clever, I wonder if the Americans taught them that. I got on top of a sand dune and used my range finder, I had 3 of them within 4 kilometers. I ordered my other tanks to the dune, and to be ready to use the bastion missiles. My loader came back in and got one in the chamber. We let them off, two other gunners, stupid motherfuckers, ran theirs into the ground, but my gunner got one right on to the front of the new American tanks. It was scorched, but he still managed to get his gun on me. I started praying to God, but my 2nd got him with another one. It burst into flames. I ordered another volley and we knocked out a few more Saudi tanks. On my line they all popped smoke and started reversing. I knew this was too easy, it had to be a trick or something. I radioed division but I couldn't get anything but static. I continued my advance as per my orders.

Losses began to pile up on both sides, but it quickly began to appear the Iraqis were gaining the momentum. Saudi AH-64s were cutting a path through the desert, flying as fast as possible to reinforce. As the Saudi center flank began to falter, hellfire missiles cut through the sky destroying a vast number of Iraqi AFVs. In the rear ZSU-23s poured lead at them, but the Apache proved remarkably sturdy. Saudi pilots began to pull back, an Apache took an 9K33 Osa directly, blasting into a fireball, knocking into another and both blasting to the ground in molten rain. At this point an hour had passed, almost a hundred vehicles on both sides had been destroyed and thousands of soldiers were dead. American piloted F-15Es began direct airstrikes against the Iraqi spearheads, selectively at great range, to avoid the possibility of shoot down and exposure. This limited their effectiveness, and limited Saudi combat air strikes to F-5s and their own lesser skilled F-15E pilots. As the Saudi reinforcements began to arrive, the Iraqi forces were ordered to continue assaulting, despite their own losses piling up.

Colonel Venedikt Grigorev, Soviet Army attaché to Iraq
By 12:30 it appeared as if we could gain the advantage tactically, but strategically, there was no way for us to gain from this battle. They would waste some of the best armour we gave them to win a few sand dunes in the middle of no where? There was no way for them to take a defensive position and attrite the enemy at this point, their units were too disorganized to possibly maneuver or encircle. In strictly military terms, any further violence was unnecessary and in fact demonstratively against our own interest. My colleague in the Iraqi Army, Major General Salah Aboud Mahmoud agreed with me. But he said there was no way for him to argue this with command, I asked him why. He asked if I would argue with Stalin about retreating from Stalingrad. I understood. I said we had to make the most of this unfortunate waste of lives and resources, and win. As we examined the map, we decided we needed to get our own air assets into play. Saddam was willing to give us the air cover, if we could give him the victory. Mahmoud told me his life depended on it, and I wasn't about to disappoint a friend.

 

[Justinian]

The Battle of Al Jahra: Part II
Saudi and Egyptian pilots were beginning to feel fatigued, and either continued assisted by amphetamines or switched out. Much needed maintenance was done on the airframes at the bases by US and British crews. Iraqi radar and ground control knew that the coalition presence in the sky was thinning out, and if they were to establish even temporary air superiority, or at least allow for the use of their strike planes, they would have to act now. This coincided with requests from the Republican guard and their soviet advisors for air support. Saddam, wanted his mother of all battles and would get it. MiG-23Ps were dispatched from Kuwait city international airport, as well as MiG-29s, and MiG-25s from Iraq. Using numbers and fighter baiting tactics, as well as the more advanced jamming and ECM abilities on the 23P model, the Iraqis managed to break Saudi control of the skies.

After three F-15Cs and four F-16s were shot down, exchanged for six MiG-23Ps and heavily damaging a MiG-29 forced to return to base, Coalition command and control began readying a major sortie to regain supremacy. But this would take time, offering Iraqis the use of their SU-25s, Mirages and SU-22s and the opportunity to further bring up their SAMs. By 3PM, the Egyptian and Saudi armoured core were reduced to fighting an elastic defence, reversing and retreating as much as possible to buy time for their promised reinforcements and air support. The Iraqi Mirage F1s began dropping beluga cluster bombs, forcing armour to disperse leaving it more vulnerable. As their mechanized infantry, self propelled AA and vehicles, as well as reinforcements began arriving, but Iraqi Mi-24Ds and Mi-28s sorties arrived. M163s, Mistrals and AMX-30SAs did their best to defend the columns, and close the distance to protect the tanks, managing to knock out several hinds at the cost of several vehicles. The Mi-28E (export models, that didn't exist OTL) instead focused on knocking out Saudi armour and helicopters (With their R-73s), and quickly retreating. One was hit by a stinger, but managed to whither the blow long enough to stage an emergency landing behind Iraqi lines.

Major Jabir Aydin, Iraqi Air Force, No. 82 Sqn, MiG-29 Pilot and Ace
I thought I was good, I had flown a MiG-25, back in the war with Iran. I even shot down an F-4 in '87, and I swear to God I almost had an F-14, but I'll admit that Iranian bastard was good too. I also thought that I've seen war, at least how to fight a war in the air. What happened that day over Al Jahra was something completely different. We had ambushes, counter ambushes, vectors from 5 different directions, top, down. My eyes were glued to my panel and my HUD. But while those F-15Cs may have been lions their pilots were often sheep. But they were sheep that could follow orders, and those orders were coming from the best. We all knew this, but our ground control was solid and the Soviets knew what they were doing. It was me, my wingman working with 96 Squadron, who were flying MiG-25s. They'd bait the F-15s, get them to waste their missiles on them, speed the hell out of there and leave them up to us. It was a lot easier said than done. There was one in particular, he was out flying me, dodging me, trying to get around me. He managed to get the drop on my wingman and knocked him out. Thank god he ejected, the Saudis picked him up though. That almost ace got a little too smug, I managed to get a lock and he tried to dodge, took too many Gs and flew into the ground.

The speed and ferocity of modern warfare between two sides roughly comparable in technology, at this scale, was something not witnessed ever at this point. At least 728 Iraqi MBTs faced 460 Coalition over a battle front extending almost 20 kilometers. As attack helicopters began to dog fight each other, F-15s dropped paveways, F-4Es launched mavericks, both sides became confused and units became separated from each other. Communications were being jammed by both sides. The coalition had a slight edge, and managed to coordinate better, they continued to draw the Iraqis deeper into the range of the now American piloted attack helicopters and supercobras. The latter brought down several Hinds with their AIM-9 missiles, and even got into gun fights with other Hinds, driving each other away. The Iraqi T-72Bs were equals with a slight edge compared to the upgraded M-60s, and their more experienced crews, finally trained on how to use their laser range finders (Unlike OTL), whereas their more numerous T-72Ms still could hold their own against the M1IP and M-60. While Saudi F-15Es dropped cluster and HE 500lbs bombs to disrupt Iraqi formations, selective American raids targeted the still centralized Iraqi command and control systems. A similar situation started occuring as SU-22s, equipped with KH-25MLs, struck several command posts and M117s, and Mirages dropped 500 pound bombs onto forward positions. SU-25s in particular ripped apart supply convoys, or strafed the coalition line. As the Saudi air power increasingly came back into play, two were shot down. Both sides began to suffer serious air to air losses as they dueled for the skies.

As the Iraqis lost their brief window to control the skies, they increasingly became the target of Saudi (and American air raids) that began to chew up the isolated tank units, which in many cases had either become lost, displaced or out of range of their anti air protection. Iraqi artillery units began launching coloured smoke rounds, a signal devised in case communications broke down as units moved too far out. As the Iraqi mechanized infantry moved up, they began consolidating their forces and retreating to more defensible locations. Moving in their artillery, digging trenches and bringing up their anti air systems. While the Saudi and Egyptian advance was completely halted, and their front line armour units left in disparate condition. Supply lines were extended and it would take days to recover. The Iraqis were in no better shape either. They took far more losses, in both men and material, and wasted an armoured spearhead on a needless battle. More importantly, the further depletion of their aircraft, loss of pilots and inability to prevent the establishment of air defences would tip the scales further in the air towards the coalition. Both forces began to entrench.

There was a feeling of conflict and contradiction. The reports brought up a feeling of indignation, almost like an ulcer. He remembered it plaguing him those few short years ago. But on other hand, pride and other thoughts began to fill his mind. He could barely comprehend the reports, this style of war, but the Soviets seemed to know it well, and he intended to use them for as long as he could. The subtle realization that the Americans, the hated British and their Saudi puppets could throw everything they had and his best men struck it down. It began to go to Saddam's head.

The Soviets, Iraqis, nationalistic Arabs and even some American news sources presented this as a defeat, akin to the military incompetence displayed by American patrons like South Vietnam. This was possible because most of the footage leaked of the battle, came from Soviet and Iraqi propagandists embedded with Iraqi units, allowing careful editing of what was released to the foreign media. They raved how Egypt and Saudi Arabia groveled to the west, wasting their soldiers lives rather than facing the true enemy in Israel. This propaganda was specifically formulated in conjunction with the KGB and aimed at the Egyptian rank and file, which did negatively affect morale. Regardless, the Iraqis had suffered severe losses of vehicles and aircraft, including hundreds of tanks, including some of their better and newer Soviet imports, at least 6300 Iraqi soldiers and 4100 Coalition soldiers were casualties (not necessarily KIA) CNN, BBC and other western agency coverage was only permitted in the rear areas, despite who they may have had in Baghdad. The Americans countered the Soviet/Iraqi propaganda efforts with drone, fighter and sat images/footage, yet this seemed to only prove that the situation was a stalemate at best. The official coalition line was that a massive Iraqi offensive operation was stopped dead in it's tracks, and that this was only the beginning of the campaign. Behind the scenes, heated arguments occurred in the Pentagon, White House, State Department and CENTCOM.

 

[Justinian]

A Global Village
As the 90's progressed and the Gulf War waged on, there was one fact that everyone in the first and second world could agree to, information was becoming increasingly available at faster speeds. The internet was in it's infancy, it's developers in the US encouraged and inspired by the Soviet's 'intranet'. Viewers in the United States and UK, the BBC's and CNN's consistent and constant coverage was a marked divergence, even from those who could remember the nightly broadcasts from Vietnam. In the Soviet Union and Warsaw Pact, the internal media also began to evolve. Most Urban and a solid majority of rural households could now boast of having a television, and there were now up to 18 channels! While censorship was maintained, the avenues for delivering state sponsored propaganda increased ten fold. The Foreign coverage of TASS now featured exciting footage of the Gulf War, in between segments on the sad disease of drug addiction, HIV and racial violence now apparently endemic in the west. TASS's foreign journalists had a field day on the invasion of Panama, after the KGB secured them evidence proving Noriega's links to the CIA. TASS was quickly equipped to provide television services in other languages, although was immediately restricted in the United States under already existing legislation. This combined with increased efforts to support leftist organizations in Western Europe, helped rebuild the Soviet image and promote left wing radical politics, to the degree that they didn't enter the complete fringe as in OTL. For the vast majority in Europe (Other than some notable exceptions) this simply amounted to communist propaganda on steroids, creating a major debate within the British parliament to allow for it's broadcast. There was stronger pressure on western Europe to come to terms with the European community, and Thatcher's hold of the prime ministership was beginning to collapse as even flag draped tories believed that the Euro was necessary to stop communism.

Polish Spring
However, the Eastern Bloc was proving itself that despite the best efforts of the KGB and General Secretary, the will of the majority could still be heard. The situation was not proceeding to Soviet advantage in two particular countries. The Polish state's attempt to implement EGSVT had only resulted in a revolt of the bureaucrats, contributing to further unrest and the reinstitution of martial law. In the May of October 1991, the lesser bureaucrats, members of various organizations, clergy, solidarity and some defecting party members (marked for removal by the KGB), managed to stage what amounted to a riot or popular revolt in the city of Gdansk. Mass gatherings managed to overwhelm the police and internal troops and some armories were raided, and in some cases several police defected. Wojciech Jaruzelski was told that if he couldn't keep control, the General Secretary and Soviet Army would. In what was called the "Uprising of Gdanksk" or the "Polish May" thousands of reserve police were mobilized along with reliable military units. Tear gas and Molotov cocktails were exchanged and some even resorted to self immolation. But by the end of the month, the ZOMO units had the city under curfew, along with nearly every major city in Poland. At least 80 civilians had died and one police officer was killed. These events were exposed by the CIA, satellite and undercover photography and video recorded by the participants and word put out by emigrants.

Enter Milosevic
The unrest in Yugoslavia was coming to ahead, President Dragutin Zelenovic, who had become the puppet of Milosevic after the purging of many communist officials and replacement with Serbian nationalists which had consolidated his power. He managed to avoid the dissolving of the Yugoslavian communist party, because of tacit Soviet pressure, despite the withdrawal of the Croatian and Slovenian delegations. General Secretary Romanov considered the notion of bringing the errant Yugoslavia into the Warsaw Pact, completely cementing his reputation within the Politburo, as a major goal. But Milosevic's nationalism, favoritism of Serbs and flagrant disregard for the principals of Tito's Yugoslavia were creating a contradictory situation. Milosevic was fundamentally a pragmatist and recognized that his path to power resided with Soviet support and compromised. He completely contradicted his own words from 1989, and said that Yugoslavian socialism and Serbian nationalism were one and the same. Romanov was pleased with someone who appeared to know his place, and in exchange for joining the Warsaw pack, Romanov would guarantee Yugoslavia's territorial integrity and protect it from secessionism. This created even more internal unrest and anti communist dissent, even among his Serbian supporters, as many interpreted it as him selling the country to Russia. For the Soviets this was another foreign entanglement, especially considering that the procession of secession was already underway in Slovenia and Croatia. The events in Poland, and the upcoming military operations necessary to quash Croatian and Slovenian secessionism were a Faustian bargain, that would again provide the west the means to paint the Soviet Union and Romanov as an aggressive tyrant. When the Slovenians revolted, the Serbians were pushed to engage in a full scale military crackdown. Advisors from the Soviet group of forces in Germany assisted in directing efforts, resulting in a month long campaign. Slovenians ambushed and destroyed entire columns, as well as having stormed JNA (Yugoslavia People's Army) garrisons. However, despite defections of Croatian, Slovenian and even Serbian soldiers, the unassailable advantage the JNA possessed with a full scale invasion prevented any meaningful defence until the JNA had made it to Ljublijana.

The Battle of Ljublijana
Despite the inability of the Slovenian militia to provide any strong resistance to the advance of the Yugoslavian army, they had been able to arm themselves from looted depots and captured soldiers fairly well. The CIA and MI6 smuggled in as many weapons as possible, and organized crime in Italy had no problem selling anything they could get either. The widespread support for Slovenian independence ensured that thousands volunteered to defend their republic's capital city. The Soviet's were hesitant on replicating Bucharest, and their JNA counterparts who wanted to save as many lives as possible agreed. The connections to the city were cut and it was put under siege. Selective air raids by the Yugoslavian air force went array however, and many civilians were killed or injured, many recorded by western journalists. Before the encirclement of the city, many volunteers from Croatia had joined. Many saw the mass defence of the city as a continuation of the spirit of the revolt in Gdansk. As these idealistic speeches were broadcast, and the weeks dragged on without an agreement to surrender, the JNA stormed the city. It took two weeks to break the will of the defenders, who fought back by any means necessary. As the city fell, many resorted to suicide bombs, fake surrenders and fighting from the sewer. Ljublijana was "liberated" by the 17th of July, 1991. Some insurgents fought on in the hills, but more importantly, the fires of unrest were stoked. In the eyes of those who had witnessed or watched the events in Ljublijana, they demonstrated something. Communism, and the tyranny of Romanov, had to be opposed by any means necessary, including violence.

 

[Justinian]

Conclusion of the Mother of All Battles
Two Weeks had concluded since the battle of Al Jahra, on the 26th of April. The frontlines in the desert had stabilized, a few F-16s were shot down by Tor SAMs, but regardless, the Iraqis had been left under low intensity air bombardment. It would of course increase at night when American pilots and F-117s could fly unhindered. Events in Europe began to take away the attention of the western populace and a move was necessary to regain the initiative and assist the Arab coalition to it's victory. The CENTCOM in conjunction with Pentagon and White House decided that despite the inflammatory nature of such an act, the independence of Kuwait (And the humbling of Iraq) a was paramount need. The US ordered the deployment of the 3rd Armoured Division and the First Marine Division, and USAF squadrons of F-117s, A-10s, F-15s and F-111s were readied for action. On the 21st of April, the Americans attacked in full force against the softer south of the Iraqi western defenses. SEAD raids by F-18s and F-111s suppressed Iraqi air defences to allow American AH-64Ds to operate with near impunity, eviscerating Iraqi armour south of Kuwaiti city. M1A1s mopped up the rest, despite taking a few losses from Iraqi infantry teams equipped with the Konkurs and Konkurs-M ATGM system. Americans forces had the benefit of advanced electronic warfare, counter battery systems, exceptional combined arms tactics and near total situational awareness. The Iraqi command and control system was ravaged in the south. The Iraqi forces retreated into the suburbs of Kuwait city, aided by Republican Guard forces ferried in at night and protected by the Iraqi Air Force, which had shouldered heavy losses against the USAF. The 3rd Armoured controlled the southern approaches to the city, and the 1st marine division were enlisted to force the Iraqis out and to clear a path for the armour.

Corporal, Lee Towner, Infantry, 1st Marine Division, 5th Regiment
Waiting for months and months in that god forsaken desert, was getting to us, we knew the Iraqis weren't pussies but anything was better than waiting around at the border. It only took us three days completely fuck up that grand old Iraqi army that stopped the Arabs dead in their tracks. Of course it helped that the chair force cleared the way, but many men in the regiment had to take out field fortifications by hand, and it wasn't easy. By the time we approached Kuwaiti City, it was our turn. The Iraqis had turned the city into a fortress, and didn't allow the civilians to leave, I bet the commies told them to do that.

Of course we still bombed the shit out of them, but it slowed us down. We had to ditch the AAVPs and started huffing it, backed up by M-60s and few M1A1 companies donated by the army. When we really needed extra firepower we'd call in LAVs to help us transition. As the city got denser, and the barricades became harder to clear, it soon became clear to me what the phrase "war is hell" meant to me. My uncle was in Vietnam, he fought in Hue City, he wouldn't talk about it. The only reason I'm talking about it is because you're paying me. We had to move building to building, some were easy, some were a lot harder. Apparently this was the difference between the republican guard and the army, at the time we couldn't tell but they seemed to wear a lot of different uniforms. We didn't even have time to process what they looked like until the end. We'd blast a door in, and throw grenades. My squad moved up to some building, could have been a school or some shit. We caught a few of them unaware, three of them in fact, threw in an M67. We kicked in the door after the blast and I let our boy with the M249 rip anyone unfortunate enough to be in our path apart. It started getting tricky when we had to clear rooms, those mother fucking cocksuckers got my friend. An AKM round straight through the gut, they medievac'd him but it wasn't enough. We were wasting them, but any chance they could get, especially those republican guard fuckers, would get us on the stairs or through another building, or the constant shells would get some unlucky bastard with shrapnel.

*Pauses*

We made it to the 2nd floor, and I kicked a door in. He didn't look a day over the age of 15 or 16, not that I gave a fuck at the time. I had him at muzzle point the entire time, it was seconds but it felt like hours. I looked him in the eye, begging him to just drop it. But he didn't, he hopelessly tried to bring down his AK on me, and I let a burst go. His body flopped back, landing on some desks, completely lifeless. I had to stop, just for a second. My sergeant, a tough fuck who had rode my ass since we got here, came in. He looked at me, I looked at him. He gave me a pat on the back, told me to hold back as our rear guard. It wasn't too long after until we were given the order to pull back, arty the shithole. I got the bronze star, not that I gave a fuck.

The US intervention had brought the Arabs to the forefront of Kuwait City. The original plan to clear it completely from the Iraqis was abandoned. Tor and Osa SAMs were shooting and then being hid in garages, unacceptable causalities were being taken in brutal urban warfare. There was absolutely no doubt that the American soldier and marine especially, were better equipped, better trained and more ready for battle. Yet the circumstances of fighting in built up areas, with different vectors meant that mistakes were made. The Americans killed at least 10-20 Iraqis for every one casualty taken, but in some circumstances they faced special republican guards. Men who had already fought in the Iran-Iraq war. In the OTL Gulf War, they were buried alive or burnt into a husk from air raids, but in these circumstances, urban warfare, they actually managed to fight back. CENTCOM decided that this intervention was enough, the Iraqis were weaker and that now the Arabs could take care of the arduous task of clearing out the city with their help.

 

[Justinian]

I hope everyone had a great Christmas/Holiday!

Trees and Nighthawks
Despite support for Soviet containment, and general revulsion for Iraqi aggression in the middle east, a question began to be raised in many right wing circles as well as entering open conversation in the United States. Why should American soldiers die for Saudi Arabia or Kuwait of all places? President Bush Sr knew that any long intervention or full on invasion would immediately draw comparisons with the Vietnam war. Most people in Europe or America barely knew of Kuwait before this war. However, by keeping the American intervention short and decisive, Bush managed to keep a political veneer on it similar to Reagan's brief confrontations with Libya. Necessary acts to ensure that the American national interest was defended while also avoiding costly entanglements. The Americans suffered 679 KIA and 1430 WIA overall, but this burden was shouldered by a volunteer force, not draftees. The results were tangible and easily understood. By breaking the Iraqi lines south of Kuwait city, the US opened the door for the Saudis and Egyptians to flood into the city proper. The Iraqi Airforce had suffered severe attrition at this point, and could only offer piecemeal resistance to coalition efforts. The fight within the city itself degenerated into destructive, violent urban warfare. Tanks fired at each other in the streets, shortly before being blown to pieces by infantry AT weapons. Only after two weeks of fighting, by May 15th, the coalition offensive managed liberate the city after constant air strikes and artillery bombardment. The city, one of the richer and finer of the middle east, was reduced to a OTL Grozny esque ruin. This wasn't helped as Iraqi scuds constantly bombarded it, in an effort to scorch the earth and create as many casualties as possible.

These scuds caused even more destruction of infrastructure, and a few lucky strikes killed hundreds of coalition soldiers and some civilians. On the fateful day of May 17th, at 3:32 AM, three F-117s and an EF-111A Raven departed from King Abdulaziz Air Base in Saudi Arabia. The F-117s flew at high altitude, but the EF-111A experienced mechanical trouble and had to return to base. The F-117s were already in middle of the sortie, and at 3:58AM, it was decided that they would proceed, and an F-18 would be dispatched from the carrier Theodore Roosevelt. Two sorties of the exact same configuration were completed in the last few days and two scud launchers were destroyed, along with an 9K33M2 Osa which had attempted to engage them. One of the F-117s was piloted by USAF Major Jordan Campbell. Intelligence had previously identified a warehouse which was being used to hide scud TEL and support vehicles. A 9М38 Buk and it's supporting radar vehicle had read a passive signature, and managed to get an active lock when the bomb bay doors had opened. Campbell tried his best to evade the missile, but despite the dispersion of chaff and active EW measures, the missile continued on it's trajectory. He ejected above enemy territory literally seconds before the F-117 was struck by the missile, which blasted it into two pieces. The other F-117s immediately disengaged. The F-18 attempted to conduct SEAD, but the radar immediately deactivated. Soviet advisors had grown suspicious of precise raids into Iraqi territory that they weren't even picking up on radar, the GRU concluded that the US may be using stealth aircraft. The 9M38 Buk was one of the best SAMs in Iraq's arsenal, and assisted by soviet advisors was an incredibly potent weapon.

Major, Jordan Campbell, USAF, 415th Tactical Fighter Squadron
I was in shock, this was supposed to be a routine mission. Now that I think back on it, we were probably growing complacent. I can't blame it on fatigue either, we were sleeping in the day to operate at night. The attack run was lined up, I dropping two GPS guided bombs directly on target, and a second after my bomb bay doors opened up, alarms started going off. I was receiving warnings, I still got the word out to my squadron mates. The ejection was something else, blasting into the sky, I saw my own plane get hit. I took some shrapnel too, but nothing life threatening.

After I ditched the chair and started parachuting, I activated my emergency radio as I glided down to the earth. There weren't many places to hide in what was almost a completely barren desert. There were some hovels to the north so I drifted to land there. My landing was hard and I strained my ankle. But I was so fucking happy to be alive I didn't care. I got out my M1911 and proceeded to the clay houses. I didn't see anyone there, but I wasn't going to take any risks. I snuck into a wooden shed, laid down and managed to radio AWACS my coordinates, but my transmission strength was weak at best. It was a waiting game, whether they could get rangers or SEALs in to recover me in time or if the Iraqis would find me. Every minute felt like an hour and every hour an eternity.

At 6:38 AM, an Iraqi squad of regular soldiers and a few civilians had came across Jordan Campbell. The civilians and a few soldiers tried to beat him, but their officer restrained them immediately. The officer and a few other soldiers helped him up and brought him into their truck. He would be the first and only American POW of the Gulf War. His capture was a propaganda coup, that would contribute immensely to the ceasefire that would end the war.

 

[Justinian]

The Division of Kuwait
Kuwait had existed relatively stably as a petro-monarchy for decades after the evacuation of the British, from former important colonial outpost. Regardless of the aggressiveness of the actions of Iraq, it was true that Kuwait had attempted to exploit both natural resources on their border, and impeded the Iraqi economy from recovering from the Iran-Iraq war. The Soviet Union was in no place to shoulder that burden either, as it was still committing it's resources to it's own development and stymying the increasing unrest in it's puppet states and even it's own autonomous republics. The few victories Saddam had gained at the later stages of the Iran-Iraq war, which came at the cost of increasing Soviet domination within his state, and his own upcoming forced reconciliation with Hafez Al Assad. Both sides were heavily battered by the war, the Iraqis having lost a consummate third of their airforce and some of their best pilots, along with heavy losses of both man and material.

The situation on the coalition's side had not fared better. Egypt was entering a state of civil unrest, that was beginning to attract the attention of the KGB. Israel was under heavy pressure, and began making more overt references to the so called Samson option. The Saudi Arabians simply did not have the will or means to continue the war with Iraq, especially considering the fault lines growing within Egypt. Instead, the Soviets and Americans managed to broker a ceasefire, much to the chagrin of Saddam, who was becoming increasingly irritated with being told how to run his nation. Rather than a complete and total conventional destruction of Saddam's army as in OTL, the Gulf War played by an older rulebook, amounting to a cold war proxy battle and a testing ground for new weapons systems. Iraq's relatively experienced and somewhat competent army demonstrated that Soviet weapons could hold their own in many respects, opening the door for increased exports. The power of the F-15C was also indisputable. The Americans managed to get a few crashed MiG-29s in relatively good condition for analysis. But more importantly, several more damaged F-16s and F-15s, which were shot down and recovered. Most of them were immediately destroyed by F-117 raids, but a few were recovered and sent back to the Soviet Union, along with the wrecked F-117. Fortunately for the US, they also managed to recover an Mi-28, but this was of lesser value than to the Soviets with their burgeoning but slowly progressing stealth program. The Iraqis pretended to institute an "Arab republic" in Kuwait, but months later annexed it as an autonomous region. The Saudis latter accepted Kuwaiti as a principality within the Kingdom, "for the time being".

The US political scene was increasingly rocked by a newcomer and independent challenger, Ross Perot. Perot challenged the need to fight these constant battles against the Soviet Union, that the intervention in Kuwait was an egregious waste of American lives and in an oft repeated paraphrasing of Bismarck, "The body of one marine is worth more than the whole of that desert". Despite opinions on gun control that alienated some on the right wing, his support for American natural resources and rhetoric made him popular. Especially as the economy slowed down and President Bush Senior had lied about introducing taxes. Bill Clinton, the democrat party's challenger, also made a strong campaign. But did not publicly support detente, worried that would lead him to the same path as Dukakis. Clinton would famously challenge Bush's foreign policy, saying that while he was playing alliances and games with monarchies and dictatorships in the middle east, he was ignoring the people fighting for freedom in eastern Europe.

Who takes the lead in the 1992 US Presidential Election?​

Who takes the lead in the 1992 US Presidential Election? - Online Poll - StrawPoll

What's your opinion? Vote now: Ross Perot -> Manages to gain the democratic nomination, Ross Perot -> Independent, Bill Clinton -> Democrat, Bush Senior -> Republican...

strawpoll.com

 

[Justinian]

The Eastern Camp
The events of Gulf War, the conflict in Slovenia and the insurrection in Poland had filled headlines, and had captivated both those in the east and the west. The battle lines between NATO and the Warsaw Pact in Europe had been extended to the middle east. But within the Soviet camp, increasing nationalism and desire for democracy within it's client states had been budding, especially since samizdat glorifying the events in G'dansk and Ljublijana had spread. East Germany was the most stable, it had begun to become economically successful, cheap versions of consumer products like cameras, telephones and even computers were exported as the years progressed. The Stasi were increasingly equipped with newer technologies, widening their net of surveillance. Only small cells of pro democratic and liberal activists could operate, many within basements or cellars.

In Czechoslovakia, the system was implemented along with Soviet investments allowed by the growing price of oil (another tangible benefit from their intervention in the gulf war) and the increasing of efficiency allowed by computerization. Skoda became a major exporter of cheap vehicles, and weapons to third world countries, and many economic links were created between it and East Germany. Their dissidents, like all those within the Soviet bloc, were becoming more radicalized. During a brief period in the 1980's, it seemed like stagnation and perianal corruption may finally give an opportunity to break from the Soviet yoke. Now it seemed more than ever, that the cold war and current state of being were becoming inevitabilities, rather than a period in history. In the 1980's, western magazines or broadcasts would find themselves in the east, and their advertisements created the image of a better life through capitalism (Which, was for the most part true).

However, with the propaganda machine on full blast, and with the increase in material goods and wealth that have found their way to the majority, it started to seem that the communist party members may have actually had some substance to their long winded tirades in the state papers. It was possible to walk down a street in Prague, Dresden or even Budapest and enjoy a coffee at a state restaurant, a film at a cinema and maybe if you were lucky a place the at arcades quickly spreading across the eastern bloc. The Soviet economy has not been miraculously saved, but it's most egregious inefficiencies have been tailored down. As mentioned, public trials for corruption were becoming common, spreading from the Soviet Union, to East Germany, to Czechoslovakia and then finally to Poland, Hungary, and Romania. Romania was the slowest to adapt, but eventually relented in agreeing to implement EGSVT in it's next five year plan.

The Rough and the Botanists
However, there was another problem brewing. The new generation, the children of those who had grown up in the 1970's and early 1980's were maturing. There many different social groups, but essentially two camps developed. Those who wanted a place in government, with all of the privileges, prestige and (few) chance to implement idealistic change. They worked hard in school, pressed on within the pioneer programs, joined the Komsomol's of their respective countries. Most went to university and some went to military service. Women were increasingly accepted into governing and military roles, as a means of propaganda against the west. These ambitious and driven youth became known in the Soviet Union as Botaniks (Botanists), by the other major and more popular social group.

Despite state repression of western media, rock and roll, and fashion, these rebels with or without a cause became known as zhestkiy (Rough). They were essentially the counterculture of the Soviet Union, they smoked hash (a habit brought back by many of the soldiers from Afghanistan, and central Asians), listened to western or domestic rock music, stayed up to all hours at makeshift parties. Some party officials called them social parasites, but the KGB believed it was better to direct in their eyes, their youthful angst on staying up late and drugs/drinks that made them docile. The KGB did however direct strong efforts against those who dealt in heroin, which essentially carried out purges against it's traffickers. The most radical and politically active zhestkiy, many of them fresh from their mandatory service, in both the client states and the Soviet Union were increasingly drawn into the social circles of the dissidents and religious groups. Islamism was already being fostered, carefully by the CIA in Afghanistan and in some of the central Asian republics. It was brought back by some disgruntled conscripts, and increasingly the notion of both Jihad and revolution for freedom fostered amongst these groups.

​

 

[Justinian]

Did some minor updates and fixed typos in the overall timeline, and now I'm going to do some summaries on what occurred at the end of 1991 and beginning of 1992, before the US presidential election update. I noticed a lot of people voted for Ross Perot, which could be kind of fun, do you want me to count votes for Perot taking the democratic nomination as votes for him winning the presidential election? Is it even conceivable that Perot could win?

Africa

- Nelson Mandela was assassinated by a member of the Afrikaner Weerstandsbeweging, suspected to have been aided by elements of the SADF. While the assassain was arrested, he was killed when he 'attempted to escape captivity'. The SADF maintained their control of Namibia with the removal of Cuban pressure and had increasingly began to take a wider role in South African politics, especially as it perceived that their country was slipping away from them. Barend du Plessis rather than F. W. de Klerk became president in the wake of Botha's stroke. Mandela's assassination was meant to provoke riots and insurrection, to give the SADF cause to enforce martial law. When the riots came, the military cracked down resulting in heavy casualties. This brought further international condemnation. General Secretary Romanov, ever the pragmatist, arranged covert weapon shipments in exchange for a steady flow of natural resources, facilitated through companies registered in Yugoslavia. He did this while promoting publicly black communist groups to agitate for revolution against the South African government.

South America

- FARC increases their pressure on the Colombian government, with increasingly bold raids against military outposts and roadblocks, already amid unrest from the drug war. The Cubans were accused of backing terrorist activities, and the US Coast Guard and Navy began actively attempting to prevent shipments of arms from arriving there. Special forces advisory groups, working with the CIA and landowner paramilitaries waged a black war against the communist rebels, to varying degrees of success. Their efforts would become even more complicated with subsequent events.

- In Venezuela, on December 23rd 1991, Hugo Chavez, backed by elements of the Venezuelan military, Cuban intelligence service and the KGB began a coup against the government. With more hard currency given used to bribe officers of high importance, more than 30 percent of the military went along with him. Fighting broke out in the capital late at night, with both the palace and airport being seized by both Chavez loyalists and Cuban commandos. President Pérez attempted to escape, but his car was gunned down with him in it. By the mid morning, heavy fighting for the television station had ceased and the putschists had taken control, making an appeal for a mass leftist uprising. Thousands of people flowed into the streets of Caracas leading to loyalist elements conceding. The CIA's inability to predict yet another socialist uprising became the death knell for President Bush Senior's reelection campaign, provoking a populist element in American politics. The Venezuelan leftist junta became racked with infighting, only able to outwardly present a united front.

Europe

- The Maastricht Treaty was ratified in all major European countries, despite protests from both the right and left wing. Thatcher was overthrown by John Major and ratification was passed in the United Kingdom as well. Maastricht and the European Union became more popular than OTL, as a means of opposing leftists. It was seen as a major commercial and economic benefit that would keep Europe relevant. The economic ramifications of the German reunification hadn't occurred, causing less stress on currency markets. President of West Germany Helmut Kohl called the creation of the European Union "A shining beacon of a free and prosperous Europe" and only hoped for it's continued expansion.

​

 

[Justinian]

The Spring of 1992
The year preceded relatively peacefully, despite growing tension and unrest in South Africa. While the Soviets had managed to increase their sphere of influence, the cost was rising to maintain stability in it. Saddam in particular was a contentious ally, continuing his nuclear program inflaming the Israelis. The first of the new generation of technocrats, a professor of computer science Zakhar Morozov was elevated to become first secretary of the central Leningrad party committee, generally considered a fast track position into the Politburo. He had a personal friendship with General Secretary Romanov, and shared the latter's taste for a increasing proclivity for late night bacchanalias in the Kremlin. Boris Yeltsin continued his tendency to dissent, but strictly within the confines of what was considered acceptable conduct in the party. He wasn't openly corrupt and hadn't made himself an enemy of Romanov, and was allowed to continue his activities.

By spring, mostly in March, the fighting season returned to Afghanistan, and the relative calm was shattered by a major offensive. Core cadres of Mujahedeen commandos, trained by the Americans and Pakistanis staged lightening raids on border outposts in the Kandahar and Afghan-Pakistan border region. This allowed for the movement of many foreign fighters, including a particular Saudi to make their way into the country. In an extremely well coordinated and planned operation by the CIA, ISI and CENTCOM, many important officers in the Afghan People's Army were killed, or even lynched by their own soldiers who defected to the opposition. The Paktia Province's garrisons in particular defected, looting armories. Some historians would say that this was President Bush's attempt to win one pre-election victory, but others that the overall strategic policy of America dictated the necessity of this operation.

The response was swift, but ultimately predictable. New Stinger FIM-92Cs, upgraded from the older models that were once the bane of Soviet aircraft, took a serious toll. Many transport and attack helicopters were destroyed, and even several APA SU-25s were brought down. Fighting raged as it did in the early 80's, many APA and some Soviet advisory and spetsnaz units were put under siege. The city of Gardez was stormed by the Mujahedeen commando brigades, and the APA garrison collapsed. What occurred was a massacre, communist functionaries were castrated, beheaded, mutilated and killed. While the rape and pillage was brought to heel by the more organized, disciplined, CIA trained groups, many Soviet hostages were executed before they could be secured for extraction for more strategic exchanges. However powerful Islamist propaganda was made out of the ravaging of Soviet offices, burning of their flags and paraphernalia.

Gardez became a symbol of what the Jihad could achieve against Godless communism, when righteous warriors made their stand against it. By May 7th the city was back under control by the APA after a relentless offensive, rigidly planned and coordinated by the Soviet Army. Massive airpower and artillery was used that nearly leveled the city, killing the few civilians who were left. But the damage was done, and the fires of the insurgency was stoked.

These military efforts were planned in conjunction with a massive political campaign. Liberal, Islamist, Royalist and even Islamic Maoist (A relatively recently developed ideology) political opposition in Kabul made an uneasy alliance and demonstrated en masse. Splitting the APA and Soviet efforts between maintaining military control while keeping the capital secure. The military emergencies depleted the better and more loyal APA units, leaving only police, party militia, conscripts and some Soviet soldiers to keep control of the city. Additional rapid response Soviet VDV units were flown in, along with whatever APA units could be scrounged up, but the numbers came up short in the time being. The city was gripped by riots and mass protests, and on May 1st an attempt to storm the Soviet embassy was defeated by Spetsnaz commandos and it's guards. This created a fear that spread among the security forces, resulting in the Kabul massacre of May 5th, 1992. Accounts differ as to who fired the first shot, be it a bullet or Molotov cocktail, but when some government militia started firing into the crowd, chaos broke out. Soviet soldiers stopped differentiating, destroying entire buildings with RPO thermobaric launchers when they believed they were fired upon. By the 6th, some estimates suggest at least 1800 civilians were killed, along with 280 militants. The capital, once a picture of serenity and peacefulness, as well the technological and infrastructural development brought by the Soviets, was clearly no longer immune. The increasingly wounded and killed were given battle honors, but no mention of the overall action took place in state media.

 

[Justinian]

The Great Game
Deng Xiaoping, Chen Yun and Jiang Zemin, the trio who essentially ran the Chinese government, were in a difficult position. The events of 1989 in Tiananmen Square could have resulted in their overthrow or damage to their trade relations in the west, but they were fortunately able to squeeze by because of concurrent events in the eastern bloc. Without the OTL wave of revolution creating hype in the west for global democratic change, it was possible for the People's Republic of China to play off the events as simple unrest. Rioting had occurred in 1989 in Eastern Germany, but the attention was more focused on the new General Secretary of the Soviet Union and his bold foreign and domestic policies. In their eyes, the Soviet Union had managed to get a hold of it's economic problems without completely implementing capitalism. They were in an awkward position, Maoists in the party were beginning to forgive the "revisionism" and were touting the Soviet method as a way of ensuring the development of Socialism in China, they were the biggest threat to the three in the CCP. The other faction, the increasingly rich oligarchs, military commanders and industrialists were firmly on their side, but outside of the very small urban, educated middle class in China, had little political power in the military or general population. Even the middle class or urban groups couldn't be mobilized without promises of liberal reforms, something now politically impossible due to bad blood created from 1989. The PRC had to double down and either had to align itself to the west, hope that western trade and money could continue the industrialization and economic development giving them much needed authority and legitimacy or it was entirely possible the left wing of the party could stage a coup. They needed a victory to win support from the domestic population, and understood also that the west needed them just as much as themselves. Through covert channels, it was made known that if concessions could be made on the trade, WTO and Taiwan front, China could be expected to maintain it's anti soviet stance. This would quickly come become an issue for the next US president.

China's doubling down on their capitalist economic reform and anti soviet stance, brought them even closer to Pakistan than in the past. They funneled arms and support to the mujahedeen. This relationship would even be formalized in the 1992 Chinese-Pakistani friendship treaty. Pakistan seemed like a way to keep the Soviet Union pinned down, especially as the Chinese intelligence forces (through their contacts in the Indian Maoist movement) realized that the KGB were making moves in India. Once the Chinese Intelligence realized to what extent that political Islam was growing, even in the Soviet Union, it would be quickly capitalized on.

Other regional updates:
- Thailand: The National Peace Keeping Council's coup collapsed after Black May, resulting in the restoration of civilian, democratic government.

- North Korea: Kim Il Sung continues to play both the Soviet Union and China for aid and support. North Korea doesn't end up languishing in famine as they did OTL, but Sung does lay the ground work for an illict nuclear program, coordinated with Pakistan, which was now receiving Chinese support.

- Vietnam: As the staunchest pro Soviet ally in Asia, Vietnam had no problem following the Soviet course, but it's industrial capacity had not yet reached the point that automation and electronics would have necessarily made a difference. Instead the Soviets sold or donated older industrial technologies or equipment no longer used or needed in the Warsaw Pact or at home, while investing in programs to grow cash crops in the Vietnamese climate. The Soviets continued their support for Vietnamese occupation of Cambodia, despite opposition in the UN.

 

[Justinian]

I added some of the changes to the Gulf War, emphasizing the role the USAF took in clearing the path for the Saudis, and the direct intervention of US ground forces to break the stalemate. This is probably going to be the last update before I finish off with the US presidential election and what exactly is developing with India.

1991-1992
- In Yugoslavia, the resistance towards Milosevic's regime continued, insurgents fighting from the hills in Croatia and Slovenia, as well as utilizing urban terrorist tactics. Milosevic's latent but repressed nationalism made him itch at the thought of Croats and Slovenians openly defying him, killing good Serbian soldiers, while he had mother Russia behind him. However Milosevic had no idea what autonomy he was sacrificing when he agreed to join the Warsaw Pact, and save his beloved Yugoslavia. At worst he was a rubber stamp as he was told, not advised as to how to deal with the situation. The Soviets had connections with the leading politicians, and now they dictated that either he follow the party line of anti sectarianist, yet still Yugoslavian Titoist Socialism, or be deposed. The JNA's best commandos, operating in conjunction with GRU operatives and Spetsnaz fought the insurrectionists, yet the campaign continued throughout the entire year.

Summer of 1992
- A major story in the US media is circulated, backed up by Afghan refugees, that the Soviets used biological and chemical weapons during the war. During the years of 1986 and 1987, virulent strains of disease spread in insurgent populated regions of Afghanistan. Some of these diseases included "Rabbit Fever" as well as virulent strains of Tuberculosis. It was also alleged that chemical agents like phosgene were used to purge tunnel and cave networks, and after, special squads of soldiers would scrub the evidence. These stories achieved national coverage, but were vehemently denied by the Soviet Union as propaganda of the worst sort. They suggested that this was the same kind of disinformation, disseminated by the west, like with the "yellow rain" story. The main damage of the story wasn't in the west however, but when it was picked up by Islamist propagandists and media sources, and even leaked into the Soviet Union by samizdat and by the efforts of foreign intelligence services attempting to provoke and agitate the muslim population.

- The 1992 Summer Olympics, the first to see joint participation with both the Soviet Union and US, saw the Soviet Union take first place, the United States take second and the GDR tie with China for third place. The first serious accusations of doping were made, by both sides against each other, becoming an issue for the Olympic committee. The next Summer Olympic games were slated for Toronto in 1996.

- Pope John Paul the Second lauded efforts by Polish dissidents and the Neo-Solidarity Union in staging demonstrations which were violently repressed in Warsaw. Two self immolations resulted in the immediate lockdown of the city. Polish authorities were increasingly pressed with resistance from their own population, and the demand by the Soviets to get the situation under control. Efforts to improve the economy were failing, as strikes became common place again and funds used for development were instead used to pay for the security force's operations.

- The protest of hundreds of thousands of coal miners in the United Kingdom is publicized and propagandized by the Soviets and their various media organizations and affiliates.

- The manned third flight of the Buran 'space shuttle' system is completed. Delivering both supplies to the original MIR space station and additional components for the GLONASS system. Soviet scientists in design bureaus began working on a project to develop a spy satellite that could transmit photographs and optical imagery, rather than relying on the use of temporary Zenit satellites, or the outdated Orlets, which dropped film capsules. The US was vastly ahead, already launching it's next generation 'Keyhole" spy satellites, keeping it's lead in global reconnaissance gathering. The NASA announced that it was intending for the first module of the new Space Station Freedom, originally announced by Reagan, to be delivered in 1993. Congressional opposition was mounting, but the existence of the Soviet Union ensured that the vast majority of congressmen and senators backed continuing the space race. It would become an issue during the US presidential election.

Fall of 1992
- A low grade insurgency broke out in South Africa, as ANC linked rebels, use techniques including suicide bombing to destroy police stations and military roadblocks. Massive strikes grinded much of the South African economy to a halt as the ANC demanded that the killers of Nelson Mandela be brought to justice, the Apartheid government to step down and free elections be held immediately. South Africa had increasingly become ruled by a SADF Junta including Barend du Plessis and through proxy the Afrikaner Weerstandsbeweging. They were opposed by a growing movement of pro democracy activists and organizations of White South Africans, who were violently repressed by the use of military police and tear gas. The Apartheid leadership was growing increasingly desperate, unwilling to hand power, whose only economic lifeline was mining and smuggling.

- Afghanistan increasingly becomes a testing ground for the use of new Soviet weapon systems, like the SU-27, SU-24M and precision cruise missiles. As well other artillery systems like the Smerch or TOS-1. The Soviets use of ground forces is relatively minimal, so casualty levels remain low. But this policy results in many parts of the countryside, being left to fester, or used as real life target practice.

 

[Justinian]

The American Presidential Election of 1992: Part One
The board of four moderators sat facing the three candidates. Four older men and one woman, all highly respected journalists. The head moderator was speaking “… as agreed upon by the Perot, Bush and Clinton campaigns, there are no restrictions on the subject matter of the questions. Each candidate will have up to two minutes to make a closing statement, the order was determined by a fair drawing. The first question will go to Perot. The topic is what differentiates each of you from the other.”

“What is the single most defining and separating issue of this campaign?”

“The principal issue in my campaign, is the five and a half million Americans who put me on the ballot. I am not on the ballot on the ticket of any of the parties, and only because my conscious and my desire for a better America motivated me to go forward. As the only candidate immune to the money of lobbyists and special interests, my candidacy is a movement which came from the people. This is the way that the framers of our constitution intended our government to be, a government that comes from the people. Over time we have developed a government that comes at the people, from the top down! With people being treated as objects to be programed during the campaign with commercials and media events with fear messages and personal attacks. In a way, both of my opponents are the same person.”

Ross Perot’s answer struck the audience, and visibly irritated President Bush. Clinton however was not affected. He delivered one of his trademark speeches, punctuated by his charisma. “The most important distinction is that I represent real hope for change. A departure from trickledown economics, a departure from tax and spend economics and from the clear and consistent failures of the president’s failures to confront the fight against freedom occurring across the globe. During his tenure, the cause of democracy has been weakened not strengthened. While I have the absolute respect for the President, and his predecessor, what you have done has not worked. I challenged the American people to change, because we need to change if we want to bring prosperity back to our economy and tyrannical communist despotism on the defensive.”

The President was tense, he suppressed his thoughts about the polls, about how his entire campaign rested on his performance tonight. He felt himself at the cusp of sweating, yet his life as a CIA company man taught him a few tricks, he was not going to be outdone by a hotshot democrat or some insane Texan usurper. However, he had little ammunition, and had to go on the attack immediately. “Well, I think one thing that distinguishes between myself, and my two opponents, is by far and large experience. It is one thing for the Governor of Arkansas and a respectable businessman to criticize my leadership, yet they offer no alternative. The fact is that American people and the American way of life is facing an enemy capable of opposing it at a level that has seldom existed. When I was Vice President, working closely with President Reagan, we were squeezing them, and we know that we were winning. But they adapted, they accepted strongman rule in a desperate attempt to prevent the inevitable triumph of democracy and the freedom of markets. I can guarantee one thing to the American voter, is that if their faith is placed in me, I can and will continue the policies of myself and predecessor, and roll back the Soviet Union.”

The debate proceeded, with Bush and Clinton primarily directing their arguments and energies against each other. Bush hit Clinton for organizing protests against his own country, for being an unpatriotic youth while he served in the Armed Forces. Clinton followed by hammering Bush for unnecessary levels of defense spending, trickledown economics, inefficiencies in the Pentagon and the failure of his foreign intervention in Iraq and inability to maintain the Carter doctrine. Bush responded by pointing out the inconsistency and tried to turn the debate around on Clinton by arguing that while he was talking tough, he was also talking about lowering defensive spending when America needed it most. This was Bush’s high point, as Clinton was forced to get into unnecessary nuance to clarify his statement, which only made him appear weak.

But now it was Ross Perot’s turn.

Ross delivered a sensible chuckle. “The American people can make their own decisions on character; they don’t need their minds made up for them. We have work to do, and we need immediate action. What neither the Republican and Democratic candidate have failed to do is reference the solid data, which demonstrates the direction the American economy is heading with their failed policies. We cannot pay off the four trillion dollar debt, balance the budget without having the revenue. The interventionist policies of my opponents are destroying the economy. What America needs, to face its competitors is to rely on it’s strengths, those being innovation, industry and willingness to develop in the face of adversity, and not on it’s weaknesses getting bogged down in wars that our forefathers would have derided as the foolish waste of lives in conflicts well away from America.”

During the first debate, on October 11th 1992. Both Bush and Clinton initially focused on each other, trading glances and knowing looks when Perot would speak. By the end, they were both pressed, as it was becoming increasingly clear that this man, an independent. Had the capacity to threaten them. On the second debate, Perot hammered both of them on NAFTA, and the great sucking sound of American jobs being sucked out to Mexico and the third world as it’s inevitable result. Bush tried to challenge his foreign policy, asking how a businessman with no political or military experience expected to be able to confront the Soviet Union. In one of the most embarrassing gaffs of the campaign, Perot asked, how did that service serve him? After the second debate, the race was becoming one increasingly between Perot and Clinton.

 

[Justinian]

The American Presidential Election of 1992: Part Two
The Campaign continued for months until the faithful day in November. Ross Perot was highly motivated, worked with his campaign advisors who had secured him the endorsement of figures as diverse as Donald Trump, Pat Buchanan and even managed to get an acknowledgement from the NAACP, when his advisors assisted him in dealing with what could have been a difficult and potentially campaign threatening gaff. Several successful appearances on the today show combined with an expensive media campaign that Perot had to be convinced off in an extremely difficult fashion, was only saved in the last minute by Donald Trump's offers to donate to the media campaign. He even filmed him his own commercial, that was derided as a off topic spectacle, but served its purpose in being controversial enough to push Perot's message at the last hour. Clinton, Perot's primary competitor at the time's only weapon was to try to paint Perot as a politician himself, but these efforts proved generally unsuccessful. The self made billionaire folk hero proved more appealing to the general population of America, suffering from serious economic recession, than a fast talking yale graduate with no military service. This was compounded by Perot's time as a POW in Vietnam, and what appeared to be his honourable and admirable stance against unnecessary war.

This would contribute to one of the biggest upsets in modern American political history, an event that would be discussed, evaluated and dissected by historians, political analysts and pundits. From those keen to ensure it would never happen again, to others wishing to repeat it's success.

While the electoral college revolted against the popular vote in many states where Ross Perot managed to succeed, It had become clear that Perot had managed to win the popular vote in the United States. This shocking upset shook the political establishment to the core, and even Perot was said to have been surprised by the results. Even more upsettingly was that neither candidate had enough votes in the electoral college to actually win the presidency. Resulting in the first contingent election in the United States since 1836. While many Republicans choose to vote for Perot, they also choose to vote specifically for republican candidates in the house and senate. The Democrats managed to win 212 seats in the house of representatives, the republicans managed to win 208, whereas 15 independents were elected. While the possibility of this situation was considered, it was mostly considered highly unlikely, and that Bill Clinton was the clear front runner in the race. The newly elected house was under severe pressure, compounded by the Soviet Union's propaganda arm as well as what was clearly becoming deadlock in the house to select the president. The Republicans were never going to submit to Clinton, and the democrats were never going to give into Bush. There were many democrats more sympathic to Perot than Clinton as well. Some protests broke out, as many argued it was clear that Perot had the rightful mandate. After several days of bickering, filibustering and severe arguing, the solution finally came about. Republicans and some defected democrats voted to institute Ross Perot as the 42nd President of the United States. The democrat controlled senate voted to institute Senator Al Gore as his Vice President.

 

[Justinian]

Chapter Three - Flashback: The Unrest of 1988-1989
George McConnel - Historian - Author of 'The Rise of Romanov: A Biographical History' Published 1999
(Page 137)
"Romanov was adept at pushing both the programs of acceleration and discipline from the top down within the Soviet Union itself. According to both the works of the defectors Anzhelina Grigoreva and M. Sokolo, the KGB was given nearly free reign to both exile troublesome dissidents to settlements in Eastern Russia, intellectuals to closed cities, or to simply make troublesome party functionaries disappear. It didn't take long for Soviet society and even the party to get the message, there is absolutely no basis to the denialism of both leftist historians and academics as well as Soviet historians themselves that Romanov, while perhaps not a "Stalinist" had no problem appropriating Stalin's methods of fear and political terrorism. But again as mentioned by our sources, the repression and elimination of both the corrupt and politically inconvenient did allow for the consolidation of the Soviet bureaucracy. Many ambitious young men denounced older, Brezhnev era appointees to force their retirement, and touted the Romanov line, whatever it was at any given time. While many of these sycophants were incompetent yesmen, others used the opportunity to move up. As self management was instituted in industries, a system of rewards (or bribes depending on who you asked) were rewarded based on productivity, these rewards including vacations, material goods, alcohol, items or food from the west, annulments of conscription (usually for ones children) and preferential choice in housing. A special branch of the KGB issued these rewards and conducted the investigations and examinations themselves. All of the self managed industries or "companies" were still owned by their worker committees, so while abuse was possible, it was not widespread enough to either seriously hamper productivity or create unrest in laborers.

The overall attitude in Soviet society was that while the communists were stealing, at least they were getting a piece of the action themselves, and through the thoroughly ingrained nihilistic and materialistic outlook, that's all that really mattered to the vast majority of the urban population or rural elite. It gave the propaganda system more steam, especially when Romanov managed to seemingly miraculously win the war in Afghanistan. Not that anyone in the Soviet Union would know of the means he took to make that happen. Although that is a topic that will be discussed later where we focus on the absentia Hague trial in 1997...

(Page 143)
While there were some improvements in the Warsaw Pact puppet states, in reality the only real or tangible improvement which occurred there initially only happened because of Soviet payments financed by their natural gas and oil exports, which had allowed these states to import consumer goods that were in crisis levels of shortage. They didn't want a repeat of an incident in Bulgaria in the mid 1980's, where cheaply imported expired baby formula resulted in a near epidemic of sick children and a rise in infant mortality. The sense of malaise, regime fatigue and resistance was boiling over, yet it was not yet as ideologically defined as it would become in the early and mid 1990's. The unrest culminated in three particular events, the first being the Solidarity episode in Poland, which resulted in martial law and a limited deployment of the Soviet Military and KGB, assisting the Polish security service in to rooting it out.

The scale of the repression and deaths of these events would not become clear until the leak of a Polish Government document to the west in 1994. The unrest would continue in Poland for nearly a decade, finally culminating in the terrorism of the Neo-Solidarność Front and the Unified Front for a Free Poland. In the summer of 1989, in an event that became highly publicized as the 'East Berlin Riots', culminated from a small scale protest into a full scale riot. Tens of thousands of protestors, organized through churches and opposition groups demanded that the wall be taken down, Honecker resign and self determination be returned to eastern Germany. Honecker responded with his security forces, who failed to dislodge the protestors, even after armored cars, tear gas and columns of riot police attempted to charged into the center of the demonstrators who had sorrounded the gates and wall. It's not known how many died during that faithful night in June 13th. I personally watched, from a rooftop in West Berlin, as many West Germans demonstrated in unity with those in the east. By the next day, a state of emergency was declared, tanks filled the streets, East German militia and Soviet military police armed with rubber bullets, batons and gas broke the resolve of the crowd.

The third event has far less sources, other than secondary accounts from emmigrants, but supposedly an attempted insurrection in by Hungarians or miners in Timisoara, Romania was brutally suppressed, leading to riots in Bucharest that were only calmed down when Romanian dictator Ceausecu had to flee to the Soviet embassy and beg Romanov to intervene, signing concessions and allowing for the permanent deployment of the Soviet Army in Romania. Declassified reports from both the CIA and DoD do in fact confirm that in December, an airborne contingent, theorized to be either the 98th Guards Airborne Division or elements of the 103rd Guards Airborne Division were deployed to Romania in rapid fashion. Satellite imagery of this has only been recently declassified"

 

[Justinian]

President Perot?
After the brief bout of political chaos in America, which was heavily sensationalized in the American media and press and had even received a lot of note in Europe, the climate began to calm down. Since Carter, the Republican party was able to dominate the American presidency near completely, but there was little they could do with a President that was too popular to challenge in a primary but too loathed to actually win the general election. Perot appealed to the rank and file's sensibilities, and it was believed that the legislature could keep Perot from doing anything 'crazy' like taxing the rich or instituting actual healthcare reform. Perot himself understood and expected this, he was an intelligent, confident man and understood in a general sense the level of political machinations he would face in Washington, but he himself already had grand plans.

During the last few months of President Bush's tenure, increasing reports of anti communist guerillas and paramilitary forces, some operating out of right wing or cartel controlled territories in Colombia in cross border raids. Several individuals of both Cuban and Venezuelan ethnicity were caught trying to rouse anti communist activity in some of the more hesitant Venezuelan army units. General de Brigada Hugo Chavez, a favorite of the Cuban Intelligence force and a key figure in the coup led the crack down. Formerly a Lieutenant Colonel, Chavez was quickly demonstrating to both the Cubans and the Soviets that he was a man who could get results and take orders. The Soviet State Owned Gas Concern was increasingly involved after the Venezuelan government nationalized most of it's Petroleum infrastructure. The guerillas, some of them veteran former Sandinistas, Cuban mercenaries or volunteer American special forces were becoming a headache for the Venezuelan army in the south, but a steady pipeline of arms and Cuban 'volunteers' could now flow into Colombia to train, lead and arm FARC. The consequence was increasing casualties, and a general decline in the US's active operations in the war on drugs in Colombia. Noted schemer and billionaire drug smuggler, Pablo Escobar appeared to have evaded capture and fled to Venezuela. Despite the anti drug position of the Soviet Union and it's affiliates, it was quickly becoming clear that the Cuban government was gaining access to United States Dollars and hard currency at levels previously unseen, creating a potential way to both humiliate the Soviets, Cuban Government and link the US's two favored enemies, Communists and Drug dealers, to mobilize public support. However, the CIA and DEA had still not managed to put all of the pieces together, and did not have evidence of direct Cuban involvement yet. This situation would quickly be sidelined by a much larger crisis, the first to arrive on a silver plate to Perot's oval office.

 

[Justinian]

Heart of Darkness:
"When the Apartheid regime sold it's soul to radicals and military dictatorship to hold onto power, a series of inevitable events were launched which made this sad tragedy inevitable. History is full of examples of men selling their souls to the devil to keep what they think is their own entitlement, it is nothing special, it has happened before and will happen again. It will always be within the criminal or the psychopath's nature to act as they are, just as a predator strikes at it's prey in nature. But isn't it the policemen or watchman's responsibility for allowing it to happen? We knew of what was happening in South Africa, and left it alone because we were content to believe that this problem would sort itself out, and that sanity would prevail, what naivety."
- Preamble on the Joint Report on Warcrimes and Genocide in the South African Civil War

On the 12th of February, it was Monday like any other, very pleasant by Johannesburg standards at a mild 25 Degrees Celsius. The city had been quiet since an SADF crackdown two months ago, the only foot traffic was either affluent whites enjoying their day at the coffee shop, vehicles driving by and Black South Africans on their way to work. Despite a nearly 200'000 strong strike that had occurred a few years ago, the Apartheid government had mostly managed to systematically destroy the labour opposition by either importing willing workers from Bantustans or using armed force and food rationing, reducing the diamond miners to what could be considered almost a state of slave labour. The Presidency of Barend du Plessis and his SADF Junta had a tacit agreement with the Soviet Union, and believed that without the active funding and support of either the bush war in Nambia or of the ANC, they could maintain their rule. In some cases, military repression and pure demonstration of power can break the human spirit, but in other more dramatic cases, it fails to do so; that Monday would prove to be one of the latter.

At the Sandton mine, north of Johannesburg, private guards began beating a black worker, who demanded a few extra minutes to finish the bitter soup he was given as a reward for his five straight hours of labour. The guards were a mixed lot, some were just there because it was a job, they would just follow their orders so they could put food on the table. But there were others, a malicious sort of person. It was that sort of person who kept beating when it was unnecessary, and ironically it would be that sort of person who prove to be the hammer, striking an anvil, creating a spark which would start a fire.

When the baton made contact with Bonolo's head, the force sent it right into a rock the guard didn't see. The guard, despite his maliciousness, had no intention of murdering him. In fact, despite his sociopathic tendencies, or even in regard to them, he wanted to avoid that. Killing a labourer was a great way to get chewed out, fired or otherwise punished. But the other workers noticed, and it wasn't like this was the first time it happened, but perhaps it was the accidental nature of it that got to them. In some cases workers were killed because they talked back, tried to organize, or even hit a guard, but this time this man, a man who was friendly with everyone, who had four children and a wife, senselessly died for nothing. For these stones to be sold so their oppressors could get even richer.

The violence that ensured was pure barbarity, pickaxes and power tools were not used in their intended fashion. Bullets were fired and ricochets wounded or killed. Blood began to fill the mine, paint the walls and cover the faces. In about an hour what was left of the armed guards, evacuated the mine and left the managers who had not already escaped to their fate. That fate being a traditional method of execution in South Africa, once saved for enemies of the ANC, but instead used on who they saw as their slave masters. This of course was seen by the workers as just revenge, it was easily propagandized by the Apartheid government and SADF to mobilize the white population. It wasn't long until the phone lines were full of this information, being reported back to the police, the military and the government; but as that happened, the miners descended onto the town, riots broke out in other townships and nearly all of the mines in the region suffered similar episodes in a matter of hours. Cells of ANC rebels, waiting for an opportunity like this, came out into the open. Lightly defended roadblocks and outposts, some police stations were stormed and soon the insurrectionists had weapons. The ANC made a call to their Soviet and Cuban contacts, but the former was in a difficult position, considering there was no doubt in their or the KGB's mind that the Apartheid government had kept records of their dealings to prevent just this sort of thing. This however didn't stop other african nations from offering whatever form of paltry support they could manage. Thus began the riot in Johanesburg, which was quickly put down, but was so public and flagrant that it acted as a starters pistol, culminating an inevitable conflict since the murder of Nelson Mandela.