How are you convincing me that the Italians were the realistic ones in the Great War?! Either way, your posts have been rather helpful in getting me to reconsider my assumptions about the competency of various forces in WWI.
REDUX: Place In The Sun: What If Italy Joined The Central Powers?
- Thread starter Kaiser Wilhelm the Tenth
- Start date
I hope Corsica becomes Italian clay.
I think it's more that Cardona didn't change tactics while France, Britain and Germany had to evolve or die.
The problem is that a disproportionate amount of documents both from the Supreme Command and from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, being written in Italian, are not known abroad, so there is a distorted idea of what is happening in Rome and of the rationales that are behind a series of decisions. For example, there is all the correspondence between San Giuliano, foreign minister, and Pollio, Cadorna's predecessor, who is pro-German. The general, instead of declaring himself ready to mobilize, literally begs the minister to find a compromise and mediation, because 1) defines the Moltke plan. which he knew broadly, for joint exercises and coordination between staffs "garbage destined for failure" and which lead to the British naval blockade "harmful to Italian interests" 2) Quoting Caviglia's report on the Russian-Japanese war, he hypothesizes a huge bloodbath 3) It highlights that the Italian army, due to lack of artillery and machine guns, will not be ready to fight before the "Second half of 1916"
Among other things, the Caviglia report should also be on Google Books, since the general published it with the title
The war between Russia and Japan (1904-1905)
to then rework it in the essay
The Secret of Peace: Russo-Japanese War
with all his analyzes on war, on the machine gun-barbed wire pair
Or the report of the military attaché at the Paris embassy to the Italian government, written shortly before the Battle of the Marne, Lieutenant Colonel Giovanni Giuseppe Breganze which ended by saying
"Despite the German successes, I would like to postpone the intervention as late as possible. I believe that this war will be very long and painful".
In Italy, however, unlike in Germany, the politicians and not the generals commanded: for this reason the General Staff, despite its perplexities, was unable to impose its reasons and was forced to fight a war in conditions that it considered not optimal.
Among other things, the Russian-Japanese war, which the Italians, unlike the French and Germans, studied in depth, was also analyzed by the admirals ... Here are several studies on the subject
Other interesting material, which I hope has been translated into English, is the volume Generali in Guerra, of the historical office of the Italian army, which contains the unpublished diary of Major General Alberto Michele Cangemi and the official reports of the Marshal of Italy. Enrico Caviglia, especially for the first chapter, on the phases preceding the entry into the war
Well Giolitti was strongly pro neutrality because know that Italy was not really ready for the bloodbath as many other, unfortunely the one currently in the government and the king are not among them; plus there is the problem of Cadorna character...as he really doesn't have a lot of friends in the goverment and the one that will have been crucial to keep Italy out of this was also the one that he hated the most
Attention, however, the problem of neutrality arises well before Cadorna: the first supporter, in the military summits, I do not say of neutrality, but of participating as late as possible, so that the execution is dignifiedly ready is the predecessor, Pollio, who died on July 1, 1914, but before the crisis broke out, he had already raised the flag on the risks and problems of war, well before the ultimatum to Serbia: this is because, being a personal friend of both Conrad and Moltke jr, he had clear the air ... Among other things, the idea of the impossible character of Cadorna is a construction in retrospect, when it is useful to make him the scapegoat of Caporetto, saving the rest of the hut ... Cadorna is chosen because considered much more malleable than the alternatives Baldissera and Zuppelli and had excellent relations with Vittorio Emanuele III and Sidney Sonnino .... Many of his decisions, as a good Italian, also arise from the need to keep the protectors good politicians...
My guess is the Italian navy won't seek a Jutland with France. Trading a lot of ships with the French is a bad deal for Italy. Tying up the French and British fleets with a joint 'fleet in being' while spending minimal coal and even more minimal blood and steel is more in their interest.
Thanks as always for the comments guys.
Next couple chapters might be a little delayed as I need to sit and do some research. Taking the time to get it right is key.
Perhaps once TTL is finished, I could write such a short story. The comic value would be immense.
Cadorna's personality will be the same here but his French opposite number (Joffre) was the same sort of person. It'll be interesting to watch two of WWI's most aggressive, stubborn commanders go against one another... all in the world's worst terrain.
As the next update will show, Cadorna's reluctance to put Italian troops under German command will keep the expeditionary force from the Western Front for some while.
There are voices on both sides ITTL calling for the sort of strategic defence you're describing but, at least on land, it's not "glorious" and so won't fly. I actually wrote several lengthy paragraphs in my test thread on the French adopting this strategy before deleting them-- this wasn't how Joffre thought. The same applies to Cadorna.
Regarding the Navy you're right- a fleet in being spread throughout the coast will keep hostile ships away from Italian internal waters. Austria-Hungary's navy would be a great asset in this though there might be political problems.
I'm considering having a Italian campaign in Albania but we'll have to see.
I agree with you on "the true coup of sacro egoismo"-- parts of it will happen ITTL though Germany will be the driving force of events.
Let's say the British commander lied; that's just as plausible and plays into Italy's TTL grievances perfectly.
(Even though Britannia obviously rules the waves, so- wait...)
Want to bet?
You're right in that Caporetto probably did undue harm to Cadorna's reputation- after all, many other WWI generals committed the same errors he did yet he was the only one to suffer a strategic defeat on that scale.
Sonnino's good relations with Cadorna were a factor in making him Salandra's replacement ITTL.
Next couple chapters might be a little delayed as I need to sit and do some research. Taking the time to get it right is key.
Italy will get some compensation but it won't be everything they'd hoped for. There will absolutely be no sale of Malta in Redux- no way the British would sacrifice their position in the central Mediterranean for any amount of cash. Nor will they gain British or French Somaliland; if anything, they might lose their own East African holdings at the peace table (even if they get compensation). Remember British-Italian relations are far worse in this version.
Perhaps once TTL is finished, I could write such a short story. The comic value would be immense.
Some great points here, and thank you for sharing your great-grandfather's tale; it's a reminder that "war is hell and you cannot refine it". Hopefully he would have pulled through in TTL.
Cadorna's personality will be the same here but his French opposite number (Joffre) was the same sort of person. It'll be interesting to watch two of WWI's most aggressive, stubborn commanders go against one another... all in the world's worst terrain.
As the next update will show, Cadorna's reluctance to put Italian troops under German command will keep the expeditionary force from the Western Front for some while.
A good catch-- no it does not!
Some great analysis here.
There are voices on both sides ITTL calling for the sort of strategic defence you're describing but, at least on land, it's not "glorious" and so won't fly. I actually wrote several lengthy paragraphs in my test thread on the French adopting this strategy before deleting them-- this wasn't how Joffre thought. The same applies to Cadorna.
Regarding the Navy you're right- a fleet in being spread throughout the coast will keep hostile ships away from Italian internal waters. Austria-Hungary's navy would be a great asset in this though there might be political problems.
I'm considering having a Italian campaign in Albania but we'll have to see.
I agree with you on "the true coup of sacro egoismo"-- parts of it will happen ITTL though Germany will be the driving force of events.
Greece will not be joining the war ITTL: Venizelos and King Constantine, while nowhere near friends or allies, will at least not be establishing rival governments here!
Thanks for the kind words and corrections. Will fix.
International maritime law is not my area of expertise-- thanks for pointing this out.
Let's say the British commander lied; that's just as plausible and plays into Italy's TTL grievances perfectly.
(Even though Britannia obviously rules the waves, so- wait...)
See above-- I like the allegorical humour!
Once again very funny- I should add though that it's actually quite a plausible sequence of events. My plans for Japan in this version are far more developed than in 1.0 and this is fairly close to the mark.Later, during the Imperial Conference...
Australia and Canada: We can't trust the Japs! They're sneaky little backstabbers! Look at what they did to France once they saw the opportunity! Besides, they're just yellow monkeys! We shouldn't have to lower ourselves to consort with them.
Britain: *raises hands placatingly* Okay, okay...I'll see what I can do.
...then when the topic of the Anglo-Japanese Alliance comes up...
Britain: Sorry, Japan, we can't be allies with you anymore. Rule, Britannia, and all that. Good luck, though, it was great while it lasted.
Japan: Okay.
Britain: Wait, really?
Japan: We saw this coming, you know. I mean, you are Perfidious Albion, after all.
Britain:
Japan: U mad, bro?
...and finally, CP and Japanese delegates announce the formation of the new Quintuple Alliance.
Britain: FUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUU-!
The CPs:
Thank you again for the information. This will all come into play over the next few chapters.
Indeed!
The distance from the border to Turin approximately equals that from Ypres to Ghent or Artois-Loos to Mons, and over some of Europe's roughest terrain.
Want to bet?
Me too- for which I'm grateful.
I agree that Pollio was a major influence on Italy's war, even if he never lived to see it. I actually considered having him survive as the new PoD, but decided against it.
You're right in that Caporetto probably did undue harm to Cadorna's reputation- after all, many other WWI generals committed the same errors he did yet he was the only one to suffer a strategic defeat on that scale.
Sonnino's good relations with Cadorna were a factor in making him Salandra's replacement ITTL.
Glad to have you aboard!Unique and interesting TL, liked and watched
Having a fleet in being would make more sense-- but I can see an attempted shore bombardment escalating.
There's also the question: will France seek a Jutland with Italy?
They have been thoroughly disabused of that by mid 1915. A year in the trenches will do that to you.
True, but senior officers (thinking of Joffre here) continued to attack for the sake of attacking well throughout 1915. Unfortunately I can see that translating to the Italian Front.
Yeah that's a serious question. It's bad for France too. Trading ships with Italy would reduce France's naval rank considerably on the world scene. But the French don't seem to think that way, at least the WWI French. They might well try to get a decisive naval battle with Italy even though pretty much every outcome (other than ASB levels of exchange) is really bad for France in the long term.
Nah. The lack of scouting assets, especially once the British battlecruisers are withdrawn, and their small margin of dreadnought superiority over the Italians means they'll have no interest in trying such. And, in fact, the Italians have a small window in late 1915/early 1916 where they have a margin of superiority of their own.
At that point the British will have to make a pretty hard choice about Indomitable and Inflexible, not to mention any other reinforcements. They need more battlecruisers in the North Sea, because the diversions to hunt down Von Spee's squadron dangerously narrowed their margin over the Germans in that category. But without the battlecruisers, the Italian armored cruisers and Italo-Austrian scout cruisers are going to be extremely difficult for the French to stop on their own, and with a nominal dreadnought superiority of 9 or potentially even 10 to 4 they could very well go for a major fleet battle.
Agreed. Politically, being able to say "we've sent the Italian fleet to the bottom!" would be a great boost for morale/prestige. It would hurt Italy especially badly, that country lacking a fleet on the scale of the other Great Powers.
I agree with @CV12Hornet that it would be ill-advised tactically and strategically... but if the political will is there I can see it happening.
I seem to recall that the French and Italian navies in WWI were pretty close, with the advantage to Italy if closer to their bases than France. But maybe the French could get a combined fleet going with the UK, using some of what was historically deployed in the Gallipoli campaign. That would be a pretty epic naval battle if the Austrian and Ottoman and Italian navies went up against the Entente combined navy in the Med. Thing is, the only ones who'd win that battle would be the Germans, the US, and Japan.
French:
4 Dreadnoughts (Courbet-class)
6 Semi-Dreadnoughts (Danton-class)
6 Armored Cruisers (2 Leon Gambetta, 2 Edgar Quinet, Jules Michelet, Ernest Renan)
17 Destroyers (11 Bouclier-class, 6 Bisson-class)
Italo-Austrian
9 Dreadnoughts (Dante Alighieri, 3 Conte di Cavour class, 2 Andrea Doria class, 3 Tegetthoff class)
9 Semi-Dreadnoughts (2 Regina Margherita-class, 4 Regina Elena-class, 3 Radetzky-class)
5 Armored Cruisers (2 Pisa-class, 2 San Giorgio-class, Sankt George)
7 Scout Cruisers (3 Novara-class, 2 Nino Bixio-class, Quarto, Admiral Spaun)
22 Destroyers (6 Tatra-class, 6 Indomito-class, 2 Ardito-class, 2 Audace-class, 4 Rosolino Pilo-class)
Just for the record, these are the battle fleets we'd be looking at for a hypothetical late 1915 Med-Jutland, absent any British vessels. A combined Anglo-French fleet, based on what was committed to the Dardanelles, would probably look more like this:
Anglo-French:
5 Dreadnoughts (Courbet-class, Queen Elizabeth)
2 Battlecruisers (Invincible-class)
6 Semi-Dreadnoughts (Danton-class)
6 Armored Cruisers (2 Leon Gambetta, 2 Edgar Quinet, Jules Michelet, Ernest Renan)
4 Light Cruisers (3 Town-class, Phaeton)
??? Destroyers (11 Bouclier-class, 6 Bisson-class, lol I'm not trawling through the British destroyer list)
Which is a lot dicier for the Central Powers. But also not something that wants to offer battle to that combined fleet, either, in absence of knowledge of the Tegetthoff-class' lemon status.
4 Dreadnoughts (Courbet-class)
6 Semi-Dreadnoughts (Danton-class)
6 Armored Cruisers (2 Leon Gambetta, 2 Edgar Quinet, Jules Michelet, Ernest Renan)
17 Destroyers (11 Bouclier-class, 6 Bisson-class)
Italo-Austrian
9 Dreadnoughts (Dante Alighieri, 3 Conte di Cavour class, 2 Andrea Doria class, 3 Tegetthoff class)
9 Semi-Dreadnoughts (2 Regina Margherita-class, 4 Regina Elena-class, 3 Radetzky-class)
5 Armored Cruisers (2 Pisa-class, 2 San Giorgio-class, Sankt George)
7 Scout Cruisers (3 Novara-class, 2 Nino Bixio-class, Quarto, Admiral Spaun)
22 Destroyers (6 Tatra-class, 6 Indomito-class, 2 Ardito-class, 2 Audace-class, 4 Rosolino Pilo-class)
Just for the record, these are the battle fleets we'd be looking at for a hypothetical late 1915 Med-Jutland, absent any British vessels. A combined Anglo-French fleet, based on what was committed to the Dardanelles, would probably look more like this:
Anglo-French:
5 Dreadnoughts (Courbet-class, Queen Elizabeth)
2 Battlecruisers (Invincible-class)
6 Semi-Dreadnoughts (Danton-class)
6 Armored Cruisers (2 Leon Gambetta, 2 Edgar Quinet, Jules Michelet, Ernest Renan)
4 Light Cruisers (3 Town-class, Phaeton)
??? Destroyers (11 Bouclier-class, 6 Bisson-class, lol I'm not trawling through the British destroyer list)
Which is a lot dicier for the Central Powers. But also not something that wants to offer battle to that combined fleet, either, in absence of knowledge of the Tegetthoff-class' lemon status.
I think they'll try, but at the same time, Italy might also be considering it. The best way to describe any naval actions in the Med between the two powers is basically two cats, circling one another.
Which in and of itself, is a victory, as it means France has to be a lot more conservative with naval deployments.
I did a little more digging on the timing - and yeah, the British battlecruisers are back in the North Sea by now. Which is bad news bears for the Entente. Until the Brits can get them back into the theater, the Italians are going to have a pretty significant scouting advantage over the Entente in the Mediterranean.
Italy's cruisers have a qualitative advantage too: 10-inch guns against French 7.6s. The RM can probably put one or two in the line if they really need to.