As I said above: sorry things have been so quiet here; midterms have eaten up much of my energy. We'll be back tomorrow though!
I'm sorry to say that us Americans say exactly this ITTL lol.
Yes, very much so unfortunately...
A lot of people commenting about Italy's "mercenary" foreign policy that might see them go against Berlin. Assuming that the next great conflict is still Britain/France vs Germany, Italy still has much much more to gain with the Germans than against. Algeria in particular is an excellent target for Italy. Depending on how the situation in France goes, the Pieds-Noirs could even let the Italians in as liberators should France decide that in order to beat Germany on the continent they have to empress thousands of its colonial subjects and in the process give them equal rights, something the Pieds-Noirs will be wary of. Britain of course has egypt as a juicy target for Italian ambitions in both the Mediterranean and East Africa. Go against Germany, what might the Italians get? Some concessions in Danubia AND a war with Germany on the continent. Every country has their share of delusional people who bite off more than they can chew, but this TL is too good to have Italy go fully off the goop for TTLs WW2 analogue. Italy got virtually everything they could want from WW1.
1. ALL French territory with Italian claims (border territories + Corsica)
2. African concessions from the French/British
3. Malta
Even stronger than their desire to gain more land is the Italian desire to keep what they've already gotten away with, which I am trying to say is a whole whole lot.
You are absolutely right that Italy made out like a bandit in World War I. As of 1917-1918, everyone in Rome would agree with you. But then, Italy has always been a "wildcard" of sorts. Who could've predicted the March on Rome in OTL 1919 or what the subsequent regime would have done? This TL has yet to see the rise of Integralism but once we get there the effects will be considerable.
I like the idea of a Pied-Noir revolt or at least their being somewhat pro-Italian if a French Federation of sorts is formed... that will go in the notebook for sure!
That said, you are 100% correct in that Italy's military, even ITTL, will never match up with Germany's and the last thing they'd want is to have to do more or less what they did in OTL- take on Danubia and Germany with minimal help from the Entente.
One thing I always wonder - and that is often overlookes in ATLs - is how territorial expansion affects the strategy and the economy of some States. How would Italy's economy change with Corsica, Malta, Nice and Savoy in its hands? I'm curious about how Germany is affected by their expansion as well and how Danubia will manage without Trieste, but I'm not as knowledgeable about them.
My guess is that without France having a knife pointed towards the Tyrrhenian (Corsica) and with the position to control the center of the Mediterranean (Sicily - Malta - Libya) they'll focus more on being a naval power. And maybe Corsica and Sardinia's economies would benefit being under the same administration? Maybe ITTL instead of the Bridge between Calabria and Sicily Italian politicians will eternally talk about a Bridge over the Strait of Bonifacio without ever realizing it.
Propaganda is gonna be something, too: Savoy is the region the Royal House comes from, Nice is Garibaldi's home town (he was furious about it being given to France) and Napoleon would be rebranded as one of the great Italians in history. Last but not least, Savoy is giving us a lot of new cheese and wine to try - jokes aside, Piedmont may stay more relevant in the country's economy (the industry shifted more towards Veneto and Lombardy in the 20th century - which admittedly could happen anyway due to Trieste, our biggest port, still being annexed and Pola being probably kept) due to the new territories being likely part of its region.
I'm sorry if I went a little overboard with this. I love this TL.
No worries- there is nothing I love more than comments "going overboard" and making the TL so much more lifelike. Furthermore, I'm a bit flattered you're willing to do so!
To answer the question... Corsica's main economic asset is tourism, which is nice but not really a sustainable thing, especially in the early twentieth century when not as many people could travel frequently. That said, they have a lot of granite and agriculture so I'm sure that would come in handy.
Instead of the Chunnel, will TTL's 90s be dominated by the underwater bridge between Bonifacio and Santa Maria?
Oh my goodness-- Napoleon is Italian ITTL! I hadn't even considered the idea, to be honest but you're right: he would be seen as, at the very least, more "Franco-Corsican" or even "Franco-Italian". Not as if he really cared about any country, or anything other than himself... he would've ridden the
Emu Empire to power if he thought it would've helped him...
You are absolutely right with the idea of reclaiming the current ruling house's ancestral homelands being seen as very important- those areas have significant national prestige and having them under foreign rule has got to feel 'wrong' somehow. Spoiler:
the Italian monarchy will still be very much around in TTL's 2021; no Italian Republic here.
I think Italy will try to avoid war if possible and, if war is inevitable, fight on the side of the Germans.
The only way I can see Italy and Germany as enemies are if Danubia attack Italy (improbable) and for some reason the Germans are ok with it (almost impossible).
People who think that Italy can be bribed into abandoning the Central Powers should remember that non only Germany can offer more and is a more dangerous enemy, but also that England has lost a great deal of face in TTL WW1.
Sure, they are still a great power whit great wealth and many colonies but to protect that wealth they didn't hesitate to end the war after it turned bad and throw their biggest ally at the wolfs on the negotiating table. Not exactly a show to inspire trust in new allies.
In short: England is still strong, but also far away, not entirely reliable and there is already bad blood while Germany is an ally, has a strong and victorious army and more important is near.
Which one would you choose?
Well, Italy was bribed into the CPs ITTL so it's not at all impossible. If the opening stages of round 2 go very badly for Germany+Danubia (assuming that's the lineup which it might well not be), I could see Italy plunging the dagger into Vienna's back. Rome would love to either annex or puppetise Tyrol and Croatia and if they think they can pull it off they probably will try.
You raise some solid points with regards to Britain- the Indian uprising in particular cost them a lot of face. If their crown jewel has just given them the two-fingered salute at a cost of thousands dead and millions of pounds, that says a lot about their sturdiness as a world power. France's current state, which IMO couldn't really have been averted by Britain alone, also reflects badly in comparison with London's relative ease (there has not been and won't be any uprisings on the main island for a while at least)
Maybe... maybe if the Russians turn into some sort of military colossus (think pos1943 Red Army) I could see the Italians making a deal with them in regards to divvying up the Balkans if the Germans and Danubians piss them off enough.
It would be possible, especially if Danubia breaks up. A coalition of White Russia+Hungary+Greater Serbia+Italy would put a crimp in Germany's day. However, getting Russia to military colossus state took a lot of loss of human life in forced industrialisation, the shattering of the German Army deep inside Russia, and a lot of American aid; I can't say with 100% certainty that any of that trifecta will happen ITTL. It's not impossible, but a hyper-Russia isn't a given.
Also: The British default, probably did the opposite of wonders for Anglo-American relations. In a re-match chances are:
1. The Yanks wont be coming in to help the British unless Germany does something really really stupid.
2. The US will be a lot tighter with the purse strings from the start. Any imports to be paid in advance, banks advised to make sure any loans are fully secured with room to spare as they wont be getting any bailouts.
3. No chance in heck for any alt-Lend&Lease.
I could tick off all three. America will most likely- not definitely but most likely- sit out GWII barring the Entente or Germans doing something stupid.
and depending who is in the white house, might even side with Germany, they will remember how italy negotiated rewards.... there will still be us politicians eyeing canada
Considering the US had plans to invade Canada until FDR,
after the two had fought in World War I together, an Anglo-American War is fully on the table. This becomes even more true if Britain becomes an authoritarian country (think Leese and/or Mosley).
Since Italy controls the central mediterranean sea they can make the suez useless, shure the british and french still own the canal and can operate it but in case of war the italians could simply spam torpedoe boats, submarines and destroyers to hunt the supplie ships, if the brits still want the supplies they need to wait an additional of ~8 months to the ships go around Africa.
Absolutely, yes. I've been reading Churchill's WWII memoirs lately (a nice Christmas gift from family!) and one thing he keeps harping on is the importance of protecting that convoy route- and that was with Malta in Allied hands and no Ottoman Empire. So the Mediterranean will be at best contested, at worst a CP lake...
And for the concurrent Assyrian and Pontic Greek genocides, I guess they followed the Armenians to a quiet sandy death, given that there was no mention of them in the posts. Sometimes, the monsters win.
Unfortunately yes. The Greek one was a little better because the Greco-Turkish War is butterflied, but it was still very bad. Score one for the monsters...
It's a mark of a good timeline that they bother to show atrocities like this. One of my favorite timelines, An Age of Miracles, does not shy away from the fact that the Romans, like everyone else for most of history, were enthusiastic ethnic cleansers when the opportunity presented.
Thanks for the kind words! I love Age of Miracles and need to drop back in there sometime soon...
Simeon's warriors would typically see eye to eye to you with you about the Byzantines, but that might be a little difficult given their, eh, present circumstances...
Like I said-- update tomorrow at last! Thanks for commenting and reading...