The Democrats might nominate John Davis as a compromise candidate as per OTL 1924, given his experience and place in the center of the party on most issues. How prominent have issues like nativism, women’s suffrage, and temperance become, since they were major points IOTL, and would definitely impact the selection of presidential nominees? If you nominate someone with close ties to the Wilson Administration and/or a more progressive candidate, I would expect that candidate to get thoroughly beaten by Hughes, but if you nominate a centrist without ties to radicals the Democrats would probably win the election, depending on the postwar recovery.
Place In the Sun: What If Italy Joined the Central Powers? (1.0)
- Thread starter Kaiser Wilhelm the Tenth
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Voted for Hughes for a second term. It tends to be quite hard to unseat an incumbent running for another term as long as the country and especially the economy is doing OK, and I can't remember any major crises happening to the US ITTL?
- BNC
Not to mention Hughes won the Second Mexican-American War. There's also that Supreme Court victory against JP Morgan, which he can play up for working class votes. That said, the Republicans don't have everything going for them either, thanks in part to Hughes' open Anglophilia. The Democrats can still win the Irish-American and even German-American votes depending on how...buddy-buddy, Hughes has been with the British. In particular, his half-hearted support for the Irish republicans might just bite him in the ass come the 1920 elections.
I will say, I don’t really buy the argument of some on this board that the party who wins in 1916 is guaranteed to lose in 1920. I think that 1920 arose out of some pretty unique circumstances that shouldn’t apply here, but I do anticipate a roaring 20s, so the party that wins in 1920 should win in 1924 and probably 1928 as well, I see no reason why the Great Depression should come earlier than OTL, though I do expect it before 1932. FDR probably doesn’t get selected as VP here though, which probably butterflies his election as governor of NY, much less President.
At the very least, I suspect the Democrats will be able to retake at least one of the two houses of Congress. IIRC, the Republicans only have a slim majority in both right now, so it shouldn't be too hard to push the numbers.
No major crisis, but like many wars I believe there was a mild recession afterwards. Shouldn't be enough to unseat Hughes though after winning the 2nd Mexican-American war. I vote Hughes beating a McAdoo/Cox teamup. OTL he had quite a bit of support but I believe the Dem had to go like 20 something ballots to choose Cox (and FDR as VP) OTL.
Hughes gets a second term. He hasn't done anything that would hurt his chances for reelection, and as someone said, it's actually much harder to unseat an incumbent running for a second term if the country is doing reasonably well.
That being said, here's some options for Democratic Nominees:
- James M. Cox: Governor of Ohio (1913-1915 & 1917-1920) and OTL's 1920 Democratic Nominee
- William Gibbs McAdoo Jr.: OTL & TTL Secretary of the Treasury under the Wilson Administration. Later became Senator from California IOTL.
- Al Smith: Governor of New York and OTL's 1928 Democratic Nominee
- John W. Davis: Former Solicitor General under the Wilson Administration, OTL became American Ambassador to the United Kingdom
- Robert Latham Owen: U.S. Senator from Oklahoma
- Thomas R. Marshall: Vice President under the Wilson Administration
the biggest break will probably be their no red summer, their no temporary mass advancement in workers rights only to be quickly brought back, their no mass violence against mexicans or africans(well with the mexican american war it might be worse and we might see permanent segregation against them in the southwest) or no great migration, no advancement in women rights due to all the men being at war and of course the spanish flu will be butterflied in some way or develop completely differently
To address each of your points (because they likely won't get fully mentioned in a chapter)
- A TTL analogue to the First Red Scare is actually still quite likely- France has gone red already and Russia, even if the Bolsheviks don't triumph, will still have some sort of revolution or civil war. So fear of Communism will likely still loom large in the public mind (and the fact that France has gone red, unlike OTL, will likely exacerbate this...)
- Unfortunately, as you said, violence against Mexicans in the Southwest ITTL will probably be worse, at least for a few years. I'd imagine more events similar to the 'zoot suit riots' of OTL will occur. That said, anti-German prejudice in the States faded with time and I imagine this will too.
- The suffragette movement will be delayed, yes. I'm not sure when an alt-Nineteenth Amendment would be passed. But on the other hand, we've got Charles Evans Hughes in the White House instead of Wilson, so that might even things out.
- The Spanish Flu is called "Kansas Flu" ITTL. Without the mass transit of Americans to and from Europe, it remained more of an American phenomenon than OTL (Germany for example was never really affected in this world). That said, TTL's Americans had to put up with this sort of thing:
- The pace of the Great Migration was slowed slightly, but the end result was the same.
when you say red scare you are also referring to this red summer as well right?
Actually, no. I was referring to this. But the one you mentioned wouldn't be butterflied.
Were the roaring twenties ittl America be on a lower scale OTL. Since the allies lost and other factors?
I imagine they'll be more toned-down, without the cultural trend of scarred war veterans returning from Europe (Mexico was on a much smaller scale to OTL's American participation in WWI). But Harlem Renaissance culture would probably still exist, we'd still have people like Duke Ellington, F Scott Fitzgerald, etc.
hmmm may I ask why the red summer won't be butterflied in some way?
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Yeah, also I would think Wall Street be more reserve after the losses they suffered by backing the wrong side in the war. I can see the stock market still going up but more people are wary of putting money into it when it's getting too good to be true.
If you can show me a chain of butterflies which would prevent it, I'd be happy to revoke what I said.
That's certainly a possibility.
To be honest, I doubt many would want to go back to Mexico. The US Southwest, even with large numbers of hostile racist Anglos, is still likely a better place to live than revolutionary Mexico.
South America has never been my knowledge base but if you have ideas as to how a Central Powers victory would impact it... by all means fire away!
Well that depends, I can't remember did the germans introduced unrestricted submarine warfare, if yes did they still sunk brazilian ships?
No Russian Communist state, leading to no red scare and the like. Also, did the US impose the same level of restrictions on people who objected to Mexico as World War 1? if so that leads to alot of the federal machinery that lead to opression during that era.