Place In the Sun: What If Italy Joined the Central Powers? (1.0)

[ferdi254]

Just a small nitpick you have misplaced Joffre with Petain in the post about the surrender.

A more major one I am not sure about the course of the HSF. OTTL they were largely in Wilhelmshafen now you have them placed in the baltics. But you cannot go south from the mouth of the Elbe except into the Weser. And only a few areas of the North Sea would allow ships to enter Wilhelmshafen from the Northeast. And no British fleet would have entered that area due to the threat of mines and subs.

 

[ferdi254]

Oh and btw like the story so far

 

[Catsmate]

Chapter Nine- The Fall of France
​

<snip>

Comments?

Why did the French travel to Denmark to negotiate? Why not hold the talks in Switzerland?

 

[Catsmate]

As I wrote in another thread. France lost against a Germany that was allied with Russia and England it then lost one on one against Germany and now it will have lost though allied with Russia and England. Any politician who even hints at going for another round can be happy if he only loses his job.

I'm not so sure, revanchism can be pretty stupid. Maybe the French rebuild, so fascist/authoritarian, ally with the UK and develop Euerre éclair to the next round?

 

[Catsmate]

<Regarding the Easter Rising or Nine Days Insurrection>
Don't really know why there should be much change or diversion ITTL regarding this affair.
However, together with the - at least on the continent - lost war (yet another "Back-Stab-Legend prevailing ... ?) I would expect a rather polluted to poisoned political atmosphere all over Britain and maybe especially in Ireland (?) with quite some potential for another round of violence on the emerald island.

Oh there are lots of things that can change; more successful German assistance, no stop order from MacNeill so the uprising isn't limited to Dublin, et cetera.

 

[Catsmate]

New chapter should be up by the end of the day: Britain leaves the war. Featuring First Sea Lord Churchill!

? Don't you mean First Lord of the Admiralty? He wasn't an actual naval officer.

 

[Athelstane]

I have enjoyed the timeline and the research that has gone into it, but I can't help but feel like the last couple of updates have veered into Germanwank territory.

A lot of things have to go right for the Heer to bag almost all of the BEF, and all things being equal, an army that has been doing little but sitting on its ass mowing down trench attacks for the last two years, with an expensive and grueling offensive against Verdun on top of it, will struggle to be as supple and swift and logistically able to support breakthroughs as it is here.

I think all things being equal, the British *would* be able to extract most of their force from France - though they may have to leave a lot of heavy equipment behind - but then, even if this is what happens, this is still a resounding victory for the Germans; and unlike in 1940, it's likely to be a war ender for London. The Germans get less leverage over the British in the settlement, but they ought to be able to get at least most of their colonies back, at least in Africa. Which is fine, because the things they really want are all in continental Europe, which they are now masters of - not quite in a Napoleonic way, but enough to shape a postwar order they will dominate, economically and politically.

 

[Catsmate]

An excellent work, detailed, well researched and plausible.
And now the nitpicks.
1. Churchill was First Lord of the Admiralty not First Sea Lord; the latter is an operational position held by an actual naval officer.
2. The British Army is not 'Royal' though many units have that in their name. Cromwell.....
3. The evacuation from Dunkirk is interesting and well done; historically most of the 'small boats' (of which there'd be far fewer in 1916, at least motor craft) were mainly useful to ferry troops from the shore to larger craft holding in deeper water, relatively few troops made the journey back to Britain on such craft. Also the weather for the historical Dunkirk was unusual for the time of year, combining flat seas (safe for small craft to operate) with low cloud.

Please don't be offended by my nitpicks, frankly they're very minor points in a well crafted story.

 

[Kaiser Wilhelm the Tenth]

I have enjoyed the timeline and the research that has gone into it, but I can't help but feel like the last couple of updates have veered into Germanwank territory

A lot of things have to go right for the Heer to bag almost all of the BEF, and all things being equal, an army that has been doing little but sitting on its ass mowing down trench attacks for the last two years, with an expensive and grueling offensive against Verdun on top of it, will struggle to be as supple and swift and logistically able to support breakthroughs as it is here.

I think all things being equal, the British *would* be able to extract most of their force from France - though they may have to leave a lot of heavy equipment behind - but then, even if this is what happens, this is still a resounding victory for the Germans; and unlike in 1940, it's likely to be a war ender for London. The Germans get less leverage over the British in the settlement, but they ought to be able to get at least most of their colonies back, at least in Africa. Which is fine, because the things they really want are all in continental Europe, which they are now masters of - not quite in a Napoleonic way, but enough to shape a postwar order they will dominate, economically and politically.

I'd considered this when writing the updates. I wanted a dramatic end to the war and a way to give the Germans enough leverage in the forthcoming peace treaty. All I can say is that I promise the peace treaties in both East and West won't be too generous to the Kaiserreich.

My reasoning for the success of the German offensive against the BEF is that following the collapse of the French Army, the Western Front was de facto reduced to just the British sector north of the Somme. TTL's Verdun ended much sooner, so it wasn't so much of a meatgrinder for the Germans. Capturing Dunkirk leaves them poised to cut off the remainder of the BEF; Asquith chose peace to save those men's lives.

 

[Kaiser Wilhelm the Tenth]

An excellent work, detailed, well researched and plausible.
And now the nitpicks.
1. Churchill was First Lord of the Admiralty not First Sea Lord; the latter is an operational position held by an actual naval officer.
2. The British Army is not 'Royal' though many units have that in their name. Cromwell.....
3. The evacuation from Dunkirk is interesting and well done; historically most of the 'small boats' (of which there'd be far fewer in 1916, at least motor craft) were mainly useful to ferry troops from the shore to larger craft holding in deeper water, relatively few troops made the journey back to Britain on such craft. Also the weather for the historical Dunkirk was unusual for the time of year, combining flat seas (safe for small craft to operate) with low cloud.

Please don't be offended by my nitpicks, frankly they're very minor points in a well crafted story.

1. Thank you- will fix this.
2. Really? I'd assumed that since it held true for the Royal Navy and Royal Air Force, it would hold true for the Army. I'll fix this.
3. I am guilty as charged: most of my knowledge of the OTL Little Ships comes from the 2017 film Dunkirk which portrays them as going all the way to Britain. BTW, how did you get hold of information about weather conditions for the area? That could prove useful later on.

Thanks as always for your feedback!

 

[Boneheaded_Bookkeeper]

I can't wait to see the cultural effects of the war's conclusion on the British psyche. What a complete mess. I doubt any super dramatic event like a British civil war will occur, but I can definitely see a lot of political instability from this including major riots and a lot of screaming from the public for the heads of certain politicians. If I were a high-ranking member of the British government and even remotely involved with the war, I would be packing my bags and taking a long sabbatical to another continent by now.

Nicky was an incapable king at the best of times, but even he should be able to tell that Russia is in big trouble. If I were him, I would cut my losses, make peace with the new German order, and then abdicate for an early retirement...but I have the gift of hindsight and Nicholas doesn't. Can't wait to see how he makes his already precarious situation even worse.

 

[Athelstane]

Capturing Dunkirk leaves them poised to cut off the remainder of the BEF; Asquith chose peace to save those men's lives.

Dunkirk only hurts to the extent that it quickly enables the capture of Calais and Boulogne, however - the two major ports east of the Somme the British actually used for supply purposes.

[EDIT: Doing some further digging, I see that at this point in the war, the British had about 70,000 men in Boulogne, and 90,000 in Calais. Not all front line units, but enough to keep either port from being grabbed in a rush, or to assert control for embarkation purposes in the face of French opposition.]

Beyond that, their next major port was Le Havre, though obviously, that's a longer march.

The British had major units already in these ports; and if it becomes a question of life and death, I can't see even Asquith being hung up on asking for permission, any more than the British did at La Corunna in 1809, or at Dunkirk in 1940. They will seize whatever they need to, in order to embark their forces, and devil take the hindmost - and the treacherous Gauls.

 

[Kaiser Wilhelm the Tenth]

I can't wait to see the cultural effects of the war's conclusion on the British psyche. What a complete mess. I doubt any super dramatic event like a British civil war will occur, but I can definitely see a lot of political instability from this including major riots and a lot of screaming from the public for the heads of certain politicians. If I were a high-ranking member of the British government and even remotely involved with the war, I would be packing my bags and taking a long sabbatical to another continent by now.

Nicky was an incapable king at the best of times, but even he should be able to tell that Russia is in big trouble. If I were him, I would cut my losses, make peace with the new German order, and then abdicate for an early retirement...but I have the gift of hindsight and Nicholas doesn't. Can't wait to see how he makes his already precarious situation even worse.

I can reveal that TTL's Britain, although it will do quite well in the peace treaty, has a chaotic few years ahead. Once things stabilise, it will be a very dystopian country...

Doing a better job than Tsar Nicholas (TTL or OTL) would be ridiculously easy.

 

[NHBL]

This isn't an American-focused timeline, obviously, but I'm interested in seeing what happens there, and the USA is always important--at a minimum, if it's asleep, people want to keep it that way.
"He Kept Us Out of War" is still a good election slogan for Wilson, but there isn't an ongoing war to lend urgency to that aspect of the campaign.
The USA also has no real reason to be forgiving of debts.
The Tennessee class is on order already, but not laid down; Coloado will be ordered in August, and the first of the Lexingtons was ordered in 1916, but I'm not sure when.

 

[Athelstane]

I hate to trash your timeline, and I don't think that authors here are ever obliged to make changes in response to feedback, once it's posted. But since you seem open to a little retconning, I ponder how it could be tweaked without too much in the way of changes...

1. I think the strength of the British garrisons at Boulogne, Calais, and Le Havre make them all defensible against a surprise attack, and also sufficient to secure without reference to the Élysée. They can't hold foever, but with existing fortifications, they can hold for a certain amount of time.
2. Given a) British mrchant hulls present and in operation in the Channel (which are after all delivering millions of tons of supplies every month from English ports), and b) British naval control of the Channel west of the Calais-Dover barrage, they theoretically have the naval capability of a mass evacuation, at least of the troops involved.
3. The Germans *could* try to send the High Seas Fleet and every torpdo boat and sub they can lay hands on to interdict, but the RN will of course expect this as a possibility. If anything is worth risking the Grand Fleet for, it's 2 million British soldiers' lives.
4. As the Verdun front crumbles, it's impossible to think that the British army staff won't be frantically updating an evacuation plan (and even starting removal of nonessential personnel); we know this happened in 1918. And once rumor seeps out about negotiations, I think the army will press for immediate evacuation of rear forces, which they ought to be able to evacuate a fair number of.
5. After that, it becomes a question of how successfully Haig and his generals can manage a fighting withdrawal to the three Channel ports. The problem is, a retreat under fire is very difficult to do, and the British will not have rearward lines to fall back on. I think it's reasonable to think that the Germans eventually will make one or more breakthroughs - they have the manpower to spare now, though it will take time to redeploy - and some British divisions will disintegrate under in the confusion. Perhaps the Dunkirk breathrough results in a rush on Calais, which comes under seige, cutting off the Belgians and VII Army. The Channel Fleet on the other hand is strong enough by itself to provide adequate fire support for the final stages of evacuation at Boulogne and le Havre, and probably even a certain part of the Calais garrison, especially at night.
6. The fighting quality of the BEF was pretty high in 1916, so I think it's reasonable to think that the rear guards will die hard in most instances, buying valuable time for the rest of the forces. I think the more reasonable outcome is that 50-70% of the men are extracted, though obviously virtually all of their artillery, their trucks, and nearly all supplies will have to be left behind. The Germans end up bagging at least a few hundred thousand imperial soldiers, which gives them some pretty significant leverage, just not quite as much as otherwise. This could get them something close to a white peace with Britain, who can at least offer Germany back its African colonies, an end to the blockade and removal of all minefields.

 

[Kaiser Wilhelm the Tenth]

This isn't an American-focused timeline, obviously, but I'm interested in seeing what happens there, and the USA is always important--at a minimum, if it's asleep, people want to keep it that way.
"He Kept Us Out of War" is still a good election slogan for Wilson, but there isn't an ongoing war to lend urgency to that aspect of the campaign.
The USA also has no real reason to be forgiving of debts.
The Tennessee class is on order already, but not laid down; Coloado will be ordered in August, and the first of the Lexingtons was ordered in 1916, but I'm not sure when.

I will get round to posting a US 1916 election chapter when we hit November; suffice it to say that the US will have very different domestic politics and foreign policies ITTL.

 

[VoidStalker]

It will be interesting as all the loans taken out in the US were backed by collateral and the government never issued unsecured loans ITL. There is also no reason they would let the British off the hook and in 1916 all the loans would have been underwritten by the UK which would in turn loan out to France and Russia but neither are likely to be in position to pay the British.

Honestly the biggest issue for the US is that they never got to see the weaknesses of the Navy and Army deployments but financially they should come out quite well.

 

[Kaiser Wilhelm the Tenth]

Britain won't be seeing a dime from France or Russia, I can tell you that,

 

[Knightmare]

It will be interesting as all the loans taken out in the US were backed by collateral and the government never issued unsecured loans ITL. There is also no reason they would let the British off the hook and in 1916 all the loans would have been underwritten by the UK which would in turn loan out to France and Russia but neither are likely to be in position to pay the British.

Yeah, if I was a banker, right about now, I'd be calling up everyone I know to get my money back. And god help you if you loaned to France, because I doubt you're gonna see a franc anytime this decade.

 

[VoidStalker]

Yeah, if I was a banker, right about now, I'd be calling up everyone I know to get my money back. And god help you if you loaned to France, because I doubt you're gonna see a franc anytime this decade.

How fortunate for US bankers that there was a push to only make secure loans. Just means they end up taking the collateral for the French loans so not a total loss. I imagine some of the French gold reserve was also put up as collateral which could lead to interesting things.