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VICE News: 08/06/2019
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    CapitolCast Screen Capture
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    A rather unique patreon request for September (and yet it's still August!) But here we are: a screen capture from a phone for New England's most listened to political podcast, CapitolCast!
     
    Boston Globe Tracking Poll: Summer 2019
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    BOSTON - As we near the one-year term in office for the Conservative government, their approval ratings continue to languish, and Labour continues to show high popularity among the electorate. Interim leader Maggie Hassan also polls highly with party members and the general public, far more than Opposition Leader Bernie Sanders, whose party looks to be greatly diminished in the polls. His performance as opposition leader has widely been panned as ineffective, and the Social Democratic Party, which had been established hastily, has been suffering from organisational issues. Labour also obtained high marks on bipartisanship, they have continued to be the main benefactor of the Prime Minister's troubles within her own party, as the Independence Group continues to try and stall legislation they see unfit and not sufficiently conservative. There has been enough data to determine that the Conservatives have hit their floor, with it being unlikely that they will fall much more.

    Another notable rise is the Greens, polling over ten per cent for the first time in the party's history. Many believe that disgruntled SDP supporters have not all gone back to supporting Labour, but instead have lent their support to the Greens under Kathleen Williams. Our polling has found her leadership has been a boon for the party, with thousands of new party members. The party has been on a steady rise after a speech she made in Parliament went viral over the Conservative's decision to ban the production and sale of ethanol-burning motor vehicles -- which make up nearly half of new car sales in the Commonwealth. After she was able to work with other opposition and Tory moderates to stop the legislation, she briefly topped preferred Prime Ministerial polling.


    The Acadian Party has seen further trouble, with their vote share all but vanishing and their party without a leader for a record nine months. The party's woes have deepened after the final provincial branch of the party was shut in late July, and the party's federal branch closed all their offices except in Adirondack, Maine, and New Brunswick.

    While the next election is not projected for several years, the current signs are worrying for the governing Conservatives. Since polling began in earnest in the 1950s, only two governments have come back from such a severe polling shortage this early in their term: George Bush's surprise victory in 1987 and Paul Kirk's 2013 election in the midst of a difficult first term.

    There remains a silver lining for the Prime Minister. All polls have showed that should the rebel Tories of the Independence Group decide to split from the party, they would fare extremely poorly at the polls. So while the Prime Minister may have trouble getting her caucus to vote cohesively, it is unlikely they would force an early election. She also remains more popular than Bernie Sanders, edging out the Opposition Leader by nearly six points in the preferred Prime Minister ranking. Both trail Ms. Hassan and Ms. Williams respectively.
     
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