How's the Start?


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The Ottomans are not remotely secure or stable enough to begin thinking of expanding, let alone bizarre fantasies of ethnic cleansing in the Caucasus.

I'm enjoying this timeline, but let's be clear that them turning around to the extent they have is already pushing up against the hard limits of plausibility of what could be achieved in a decade. That's not a criticism! It's the premise of the timeline, and it's a fine one.
But them entering the war and going on a conquering spree in the aftermath changes the thread from 'what if the Ottomans gain a crucial decade of stabilization' to 'The Ghazis Ride Again!'

That's not remotely as interesting.
I mean the Ottoman's probably could due with some internal expansion, which is kind of happening given migration and attention their neglected territories are receiving, which TBH is probably worth far more than massive expansion.

After all enver pasha had a massive ''empire'' in central asia, it lasted barely anytime and most of it was very spare in population.
 
hm now that i have some idea for indonesia, what do you guys think oe should do with india, the middle east, the caucasus and central asia?

Regarding only Pakistan, the premise is that Punjab, Sindh, Balochistan and other states coalesce on a single entity as OTL. Will this be possible with a incipient Ottoman Empire? The same with India. Now, which are the possibilities to establish and expand trade with these two massive populations? Is the infrastructure and industry ready for this?

About the Caucasus, this ottoman administration seems to respect and trust the minorities - jewish inmigration, armenians, albanians, pontic greeks among others - and this alone creates a good precedent for relationships with the Caucasus and beyond, being the Caucasus a geographic zone with different cultures.

Central Asia? Honestly with Russia and the United Kingdom, i dont know if its worthy enough for the Ottomans to influence the zone.

Middle East? Actualy it has been settled the question regarding the influences. I cant think anything else so youre free to surprise all of us.
 
For a type of uber Pakistan, the POD (is that the right word to use for a timeline already altered?) could already be in the works.

As we know the British used to control Iran but Iranian Baluchistan province was actually administered from the British one, indeed it was handed over to Iran in 1924 and all local resistance crushed by 1928.

Given the trouble in Iran the British might keep their hand on it to protect their gulf interests.

How would this change the relationship? Well bigger frontier to protect means more regiments raised, likely of Muslim ''martial race'', more seats for political power and larger area for ''nationalism'' to take hold in.

Granted I admit it might not be a massive cascading effect but larger coastline, more strategic depth , uranium ect would build a much stronger state overtime.

Though it would not be all sunshine and Sunni, Persia will have grudge against the new state, it's a province with slavery and likely would raid Persia and brings a much greater risk from separatism. Given it's the only province with a Sunni majority I imagine Persia will be even more Shia focused and crackdown on other Sunni minorities such as the Arabs.

TBH if the Raj incorporated Iranian Baluchistan you probably could make a decent starting point for Pakistan wank timeline.
Aren’t Iranian Arab largely Shia ? At least in khuzestan/arabistan Kurds seem more at risk here .
 
Regarding only Pakistan, the premise is that Punjab, Sindh, Balochistan and other states coalesce on a single entity as OTL. Will this be possible with a incipient Ottoman Empire? The same with India. Now, which are the possibilities to establish and expand trade with these two massive populations? Is the infrastructure and industry ready for this?

About the Caucasus, this ottoman administration seems to respect and trust the minorities - jewish inmigration, armenians, albanians, pontic greeks among others - and this alone creates a good precedent for relationships with the Caucasus and beyond, being the Caucasus a geographic zone with different cultures.

Central Asia? Honestly with Russia and the United Kingdom, i dont know if its worthy enough for the Ottomans to influence the zone.

Middle East? Actualy it has been settled the question regarding the influences. I cant think anything else so youre free to surprise all of us.
That depends TBH, while something like west Pakistan could probably given a far stronger boost the Ottomans around.

I would not be shocked if say Bengal is roped into Pakistan despite it being of the greatest early supporters, it would not due for the Ottoman's to have a easy ally to project influence into south Asia.

Then again you get a white elephant Pakistan where thanks to all the strong support this Muslim state and how friendly it would to the Ottomans, well the British give East Pakistan a little bit of Assam, a decent bit of east Bengal and a large chunk of Burma and Pakistan would be a dumpster fire that make it look not out of place in the Congo wars.

Aren’t Iranian Arab largely Shia ? At least in khuzestan/arabistan Kurds seem more at risk here .
That is hard to say question, I mean a large chunk of them are but Sunni arabs have been cracked down a lot in khuzestan for decades and this is before the crackdowns began. So your right they would be majority shia.

Good point on the Kurds they would be the largest risk, next to the Baluch's who are pretty much in the raj at this time.
 
Aren’t Iranian Arab largely Shia ? At least in khuzestan/arabistan Kurds seem more at risk here .
Yeah, Khuzestani Arabs are majority Shia, so are the Kurds of Persia, though from what I read there seems to be Sunni pockets around Sanandaj OTL.

The only other Sunni-majority group in Persia that I can think of are the Turkmens, but are they relevant enough to get noticed by the government?

Also tbh any crackdown on Sunnis might get the Persians in trouble with the Ottomans.
 
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Yeah, Khuzestani Arabs are majority Shia, so are the Kurds of Persia, though from I read there seems to be Sunni pockets around Sanandaj OTL.

The only other Sunni-majority group in Persia that I can think of are the Turkmens, but are they relevant enough to get noticed by the government?

Also tbh any crackdown on Sunnis might get the Persians in trouble with the Ottomans.
Their are Balochs, but their currently more or less apart of the British empire in practice, though it might be completely given the trouble in Persia.

Edit the majority of lari are also Sunni.

That I agree with it would get them in trouble, but more down the line I see a strong Sunni state very close to Perisa going to have some...tension effect, much less when the Sunni population is 1/10 of the total population and how the Jews are being very pro Ottoman at the moment abroad, well the religious aspect of Persia will be interesting.
 
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Horseshoe

Banned
What the Ottoman relationship with the tribes of the middle east specially ones near the borders with European colonies/protectorates as well as near the newly built railroads and infrastructure
 
What the Ottoman relationship with the tribes of the middle east specially ones near the borders with European colonies/protectorates as well as near the newly built railroads and infrastructure
The only thing i can think is an increase on exchange of any kind, between the towns/cities bordering the desert, the Ottoman Levante as the main backbone and the nomad tribes. Now the new rails will allow faster supplies, and for the other side, Ottoman Middle East is being settled, multiplying the possibilities for internal economy.
 

Horseshoe

Banned
What the supply situation of the Ottoman military since if war breaks out they could be cut off from foreign suppliers
 
For a type of uber Pakistan, the POD (is that the right word to use for a timeline already altered?) could already be in the works.

As we know the British used to control Iran but Iranian Baluchistan province was actually administered from the British one, indeed it was handed over to Iran in 1924 and all local resistance crushed by 1928.

Given the trouble in Iran the British might keep their hand on it to protect their gulf interests.

How would this change the relationship? Well bigger frontier to protect means more regiments raised, likely of Muslim ''martial race'', more seats for political power and larger area for ''nationalism'' to take hold in.

Granted I admit it might not be a massive cascading effect but larger coastline, more strategic depth , uranium ect would build a much stronger state overtime.

Though it would not be all sunshine and Sunni, Persia will have grudge against the new state, it's a province with slavery and likely would raid Persia and brings a much greater risk from separatism. Given it's the only province with a Sunni majority I imagine Persia will be even more Shia focused and crackdown on other Sunni minorities such as the Arabs.

TBH if the Raj incorporated Iranian Baluchistan you probably could make a decent starting point for Pakistan wank timeline.
Pakistan consisting of iranian balochistan would be pretty interesting. But as britain is supporting the Zia Persians, i don't think it will really happen.
 
The Ottomans are not remotely secure or stable enough to begin thinking of expanding, let alone bizarre fantasies of ethnic cleansing in the Caucasus.

I'm enjoying this timeline, but let's be clear that them turning around to the extent they have is already pushing up against the hard limits of plausibility of what could be achieved in a decade. That's not a criticism! It's the premise of the timeline, and it's a fine one.
But them entering the war and going on a conquering spree in the aftermath changes the thread from 'what if the Ottomans gain a crucial decade of stabilization' to 'The Ghazis Ride Again!'

That's not remotely as interesting.
Indeed, which is why the Ottomans are planning only for defensive warfare, on the possibility that they will be dragged into a war, however simply wish to be left alone and to continue their economic development.
 
I mean the Ottoman's probably could due with some internal expansion, which is kind of happening given migration and attention their neglected territories are receiving, which TBH is probably worth far more than massive expansion.
which is the current focus of the ottoman empire. Expansion can go to hell, however internal security and development are being placed at the forefront of ottoman policy right now.
 
Regarding only Pakistan, the premise is that Punjab, Sindh, Balochistan and other states coalesce on a single entity as OTL. Will this be possible with a incipient Ottoman Empire? The same with India. Now, which are the possibilities to establish and expand trade with these two massive populations? Is the infrastructure and industry ready for this?
If a great war breaks, out i think pakistan will probably still take place, though in an alt-manner. The great war otl basically angered the alienated indian muslim population to galvanize for a separate muslim homeland.
About the Caucasus, this ottoman administration seems to respect and trust the minorities - jewish inmigration, armenians, albanians, pontic greeks among others - and this alone creates a good precedent for relationships with the Caucasus and beyond, being the Caucasus a geographic zone with different cultures.
Should the Russian Empire fall apart, i can see the Ottomans not annexing the caucasus, but pulling them into their sphere of influence.
Central Asia? Honestly with Russia and the United Kingdom, i dont know if its worthy enough for the Ottomans to influence the zone.
true enough. But some Turanists would raise voices.
Middle East? Actualy it has been settled the question regarding the influences. I cant think anything else so youre free to surprise all of us.
the modern middle east ittl will be interesting to say the least
 
It was predicted that the Ottomans could pay the Austrians off by mid-1915 to late 1915 and the Germans off by 1917. After that it was predicted that the Ottomans could pay the British by 1918 and finally the French by 1920. A small meeting between the diplomats of these countries took place in Holland and it was agreed that after the payments were fulfilled, the Ottoman Public Debt Administration would be annulled and shut down. The Ottomans would complete their payments by 1921 and the OPDA would be shut down forever after that, much to the respite of the Ottoman Empire.” A History of the OPDA, University of the Hague, Netherlands, 1999.


The outstanding Ottoman foreign debt in 1914 is 140 million pounds. To go by the 1910-11 budget Ottoman revenues were 25,848,332 Turkish pounds and expenditures 30,270,246 pounds, ie there was an annual deficit of 4.4 million pounds. How exactly are the Ottomans going to pay off 140 million in 7 years when they run deficits and if anything have been significantly increasing their military spending which was already taking up about 11.4 million pounds a year? The naval program alone has added about 9-10 million in various ship purchases so far.
 
The outstanding Ottoman foreign debt in 1914 is 140 million pounds. To go by the 1910-11 budget Ottoman revenues were 25,848,332 Turkish pounds and expenditures 30,270,246 pounds, ie there was an annual deficit of 4.4 million pounds. How exactly are the Ottomans going to pay off 140 million in 7 years when they run deficits and if anything have been significantly increasing their military spending which was already taking up about 11.4 million pounds a year? The naval program alone has added about 9-10 million in various ship purchases so far.
I am mostly using The Ottoman Economy and Its Institutions as my guide here. The Ottomans incurred around 37 million pounds in debt otl due to the balkan wars which have been averted here ittl. Second italian debts had been defaulted and the dutch forgave a partial amount of their debts. Plus italian war reparations as well. One of the major reasons as to why i focused so much on the economic situation of the empire was because the deficit being slowly reversed. Anyways, no OPDA does not mean no debt. It means lowering it enough that debt legations need not exist.
 
If pakistan does happen,the Pakistani leaders should try to emulate the Ottoman policy of minorities .
Pakistan did start with that in mind, it was after all the purpose of protecting a rather large minority. Muhajirs are made from every muslim who could the Pakistani border alive from all other India. Most of the mixed soldiers in the ''Pakistani'' regiments and their families were protected as they were escorted out.

How did things get so complicated IRL? The story is quite to the Ottoman's in many ways a analogy serves the same purpose, while the state did out with a large amount of Punjabis in the army, part of the issue came from Afghanistan repeated invasions using the Pashtuns as justification similar to the Armenians for the Russians.

Combine with a lot of early local leaders favoring themselves over the state and Jinnah being forced to comprise his dream and discrimination from the old british anti Panthan laws in the frontier province ect.

Case in point most people enslaved today in Pakistan are Hindu from feudal landlords that have never been stamped out and one of the reasons the murder rate of journalists is so high.

Though the biggest sectarian factor is the Partition, the way people people speak of it is honestly similar to what happened to the natives in america. The violence's and genocide was the work of hundreds if not thousands of groups from all over the subcontinent, a lot with state acceptance.
 
Should the Russian Empire fall apart, i can see the Ottomans not annexing the caucasus, but pulling them into their sphere of influence.
I could see some pressing for it, but I can also see the Ottomans giving some serious thought to not annexing them on the basis they're still updating everything. Why add more lands to update accordingly, when they'll also piss off your biggest neighbor?
 
Sarthaka mentioned a Balkan War breaking out in a prior chapter a few years after late 1913. I would guess somewhere from 1915-1917 will see such a conflict begin and involve the Ottoman Empire; most likely Bulgaria, Serbia, and maybe Montenegro. If Russia gets involved It could create a large war (AKA Great War), or a larger conflict that is an analogue to OTL First World War may follow as a consequence of the Balkan War and its outcome.
 
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